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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

When the Tory Party starts obsessing about the European Union, it is the political equivalent of putting an unlimited supply of laxatives into the monkey house. Excrement starts getting flung in all directions, we saw it this week with Iain Duncan Smith calling David Cameron’s EU dossier, a dodgy dossier. 

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JohnLoony

Seventeen millionth!

Plato_Says

17, 000, 001

Alistair

Ruth Davidson just said she hates England.

Alistair

I may be paraphrasing a little

OldKingCole

Which Tory party are we talking about? Isn’t a split on the cards? Although the Tories do seem to have managed to avoid them for almost 200 years, and benefited from splits in other parties.

rottenborough

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Plato_Says

A split? Nah.

Self-preservation trumps all. Even UKIP only gained two MPs, and retained one who've they've fallen out with.

OldKingCole said:

Which Tory party are we talking about? Isn’t a split on the cards? Although the Tories do seem to have managed to avoid them for almost 200 years, and benefited from splits in other parties.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

JohnLoony said:

Seventeen millionth!

I miss the like button

MonikerDiCanio

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Boris is the Tory Trump.
Osborne is Jeb.

another_richard

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Osborne would be better advised to try doing his day job properly.

He's not had a good few months in that area.

Still if the Conservative party want to have their equivalent of Gordon Brown as leader ...

TheScreamingEagles

Alistair said:

Ruth Davidson just said she hates England.

Crikey, has Ruth Davidson joined the SNP?

peter_from_putney

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

Plato_Says

Ditto, and May blew it over the EUref.

I'm stuck as to Who Next

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris still has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

flightpath01

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

OldKingCole

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Osborne would be better advised to try doing his day job properly.

He's not had a good few months in that area.

Still if the Conservative party want to have their equivalent of Gordon Brown as leader ...

Has Osborne got a nasty temper then?

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Ruth Davidson just said she hates England.

Crikey, has Ruth Davidson joined the SNP?

No, but she is a Remainer though..

peter_from_putney

Plato_Says said:

Ditto, and May blew it over the EUref.

I'm stuck as to Who Next

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

I always find a pin useful on such occasions.

Plato_Says

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

HYUFD

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

gettingbetter

Plato_Says said:

Ditto, and May blew it over the EUref.

I'm stuck as to Who Next

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

Inclined to agree. Just looked down the Betfair list and thought the following looked interesting: Javid, Hammond, Morgan and Harper. Can't see Soubry, surely someone who increased their majority in an erstwhile marginal by a factor 11 without (as we read on here) doing any campaigning must be worth a shot?

Plato_Says

Speaking as a member - Javid is nothing bar being brown. He's terrible on TV and flip-flopped over Brexit, Hammond is beyond dull, Morgan = lightweight - haven't considered Harper.

Soubry is excellent but a strong EUphile - can't see that winning her enough friends.

gettingbetter said:

Plato_Says said:

Ditto, and May blew it over the EUref.

I'm stuck as to Who Next

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

Inclined to agree. Just looked down the Betfair list and thought the following looked interesting: Javid, Hammond, Morgan and Harper. Can't see Soubry, surely someone who increased their majority in an erstwhile marginal by a factor 11 without (as we read on here) doing any campaigning must be worth a shot?

MonikerDiCanio

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

peter_from_putney

O/T

After yesterday's primaries, Rubio's odds against becoming GOP nominee have lengthened out to around 17/1 with Betfair, slightly longer in fact than those of John Kasich.
Trump is around 3/5 favourite with Cruz on 4/1.

Plato_Says

"This is like the jailer has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the sunlit land beyond," he said.

"And everybody is suddenly wrangling about the terrors of the world outside."

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

david_herdson

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

another_richard

david_herdson said:

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

Not an Osborne fan ?

david_herdson

Plato_Says said:

Speaking as a member - Javid is nothing bar being brown. He's terrible on TV and flip-flopped over Brexit, Hammond is beyond dull, Morgan = lightweight - haven't considered Harper.

Soubry is excellent but a strong EUphile - can't see that winning her enough friends.

gettingbetter said:

Plato_Says said:

Ditto, and May blew it over the EUref.

I'm stuck as to Who Next

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

Inclined to agree. Just looked down the Betfair list and thought the following looked interesting: Javid, Hammond, Morgan and Harper. Can't see Soubry, surely someone who increased their majority in an erstwhile marginal by a factor 11 without (as we read on here) doing any campaigning must be worth a shot?

"Beyond dull" may be an asset when set against Corbyn.

david_herdson

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

Not an Osborne fan ?

No.

HYUFD

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

Not an Osborne fan ?

Osborne would then become Foreign Secretary presumably

Sean_F

Plato_Says said:

Ditto, and May blew it over the EUref.

I'm stuck as to Who Next

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

Nadine.

JosiasJessop

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

Part of the problem is that people who are seen as 'wanting' the job (whether true or not) have their actions before any leadership election constantly judged in that light.

Hence Boris's hesitant position on the EU referendum is seen as being positioning for the leadership, and Osborne's budget changes likewise. This exposure is rarely of benefit to them. See Heseltine and Portillo for other examples.

In this manner, Gove stating he does not want the job might actually be sensible if he really wanted it: it removes some of (although not all of) the heat.

For these reasons, I'd look to real outsiders. I'd be intrigued to see how Rory Stewart might do the job, although his experience of managing Iraqi provinces might not have prepared him for the infighting within the Tory party ...

Innocent_Abroad

Plato_Says said:

"This is like the jailer has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the sunlit land beyond," he said.

"And everybody is suddenly wrangling about the terrors of the world outside."

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

It's a "something for nothing" metaphor - with a competent opposition anyone proposing it would be blown out of the water.

MonikerDiCanio

Plato_Says said:

"This is like the jailer has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the sunlit land beyond," he said.

"And everybody is suddenly wrangling about the terrors of the world outside."

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

" If we can stand up to him, all Europe may be freed and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. "

scotslass

Alistair

I saw the Davidson interview and despite getting a lobbed a series of softballs from the totally and shamelessly biased Gordon Brewer she was hopeless - getting confused on tax policy and giggling her way through explaining why with a NEGATIVE popularity rating her name should be on the ballot paper.

She is vastly hyped up and heading for a fall in third place.

Tykejohnno

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

Didn't see johnson on marr but to some on here he had a terrible interview.

The clip they plaiying on radio 5 of the Boris interview ,he comes out of it really well,he got his points across for the headline news every hour.

JohnO

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

gettingbetter

peter_from_putney said:

O/T

After yesterday's primaries, Rubio's odds against becoming GOP nominee have lengthened out to around 17/1 with Betfair, slightly longer in fact than those of John Kasich.
Trump is around 3/5 favourite with Cruz on 4/1.

peter_from_putney said:

O/T

After yesterday's primaries, Rubio's odds against becoming GOP nominee have lengthened out to around 17/1 with Betfair, slightly longer in fact than those of John Kasich.
Trump is around 3/5 favourite with Cruz on 4/1.

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

HYUFD

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

After she backed Remain the odds are that it will now be Osborne as the Remain candidate and either Boris or Gove as the Leave candidate in the final 2

NickPalmer

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

MonikerDiCanio

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

Truth be told Cameron is just a bland ingratiating PR guy who was marginally more palatable than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. He's been found out over the past month and he's starting to stink. The sooner he goes the better.

JohnO

MonikerDiCanio said:

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

Truth be told Cameron is just a bland ingratiating PR guy who was marginally more palatable than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. He's been found out over the past month and he's starting to stink.

Well a deranged kipper would say that, wouldn't he/she?

peter_from_putney

Leaving aside Boris, Osborne and Mrs May which I most assuredly would and looking down the list of other current Cabinet Ministers (a perilously restrictive strategy I appreciate), I can only find half a dozen of other realistic possible candidates as follows, showing their best decimal odds and from whom these are available:

Philip Hammond ............ 40 (Betfair)
Michael Gove ................. 15 (Various)
Michael Fallon ............... 50 (Ladbrokes)
Jeremy Hunt .................. 46 (Betfair)
Nicky Morgan ................ 66 (Skybet)
Sajid Javid ..................... 17 (Bet365)

From the above sextet, I reckon the best value for money, not to win, but as trading opportunities are Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid.

IMHO, it's difficult to think of any other Cabinet Ministers having more than a 1% - 2% chance at best of becoming Tory Leader, thereby warranting odds of at least 50/1 - 100/1.
DYOR

rottenborough

Plato_Says said:

"This is like the jailer has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the sunlit land beyond," he said.

"And everybody is suddenly wrangling about the terrors of the world outside."

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules.

kle4

Theuniondivvie said:

Davidson rapidly taking on for the SCons the status of Gareth Bale for the Wales team, though perhaps not to quite the same effect. If it's all a bit meh after May and she succumbs to the calls to move to a 'bigger' political arena, what will happen to the poor old SCons?

https://twitter.com/ScottMacnab/status/706427641763643392

Does seem to be putting all their eggs in one basket, but then I suppose the basket was nearly empty so there's not that much risk.

Norm

It is far too early to write off Boris as a lead player in this referendum whatever ones views are on his performance today. To call it catastrophic is histrionic in the extreme - it could be argued the tetchy Marr did himself few favours either in his efforts to seek a headline for his show rather than engage in a considered discussion. I suspect Boris will find better natural territory in a public debate where he can feed on the audience participation or in the inevitable one-liners that will be quoted in the weeks ahead.

rottenborough

peter_from_putney said:

Leaving aside Boris, Osborne and Mrs May which I most assuredly would and looking down the list of other current Cabinet Ministers (a perilously restrictive strategy I appreciate), I can only find half a dozen of other realistic possible candidates as follows, showing their best decimal odds and from whom these are available:

Philip Hammond ............ 40 (Betfair)
Michael Gove ................. 15 (Various)
Michael Fallon ............... 50 (Ladbrokes)
Jeremy Hunt .................. 46 (Betfair)
Nicky Morgan ................ 66 (Skybet)
Sajid Javid ..................... 17 (Bet365)

From the above sextet, I reckon the best value for money, not to win, but as trading opportunities are Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid.

IMHO, it's difficult to think of any other Cabinet Ministers having more than a 1% - 2% chance at best of becoming Tory Leader, thereby warranting odds of at least 50/1 - 100/1.
DYOR

Morgan is certainly worth considering as a trading bet, as she seems to want to stand and makes sure this is known at every opportunity. Personally, I think she is utterly deluded, but she'll try and that will bring down the odds.

another_richard

david_herdson said:

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

Not an Osborne fan ?

No.

Any particular reasons ?

And is this a new development ?

Pulpstar

gettingbetter said:

peter_from_putney said:

O/T

After yesterday's primaries, Rubio's odds against becoming GOP nominee have lengthened out to around 17/1 with Betfair, slightly longer in fact than those of John Kasich.
Trump is around 3/5 favourite with Cruz on 4/1.

peter_from_putney said:

O/T

After yesterday's primaries, Rubio's odds against becoming GOP nominee have lengthened out to around 17/1 with Betfair, slightly longer in fact than those of John Kasich.
Trump is around 3/5 favourite with Cruz on 4/1.

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

The GOP nominee book does indeed occasionally go below 100%. I spent £500 of field green to gain £10 on all the runners (Including Jeb! ) a few days back.

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

A brokered convention is very unlikely in my view, especially as Trump starts to rack up the big states over the next few weeks, though Ryan would probably be the best long-shot bet

rottenborough

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Scott Walker?

kle4

rottenborough said:

Plato_Says said:

"This is like the jailer has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the sunlit land beyond," he said.

"And everybody is suddenly wrangling about the terrors of the world outside."

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules.

While it wouldn't be the metaphor I'd use, I don't think it correct, I'm sure somewhere out there is a prison which allows prisoners a say in the rules, it's a strange world after all.

Pulpstar

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Kasich isn't really a liberal Nick. He's played his campaign to the centre, but the only actual centrist in the GOP race was Chris Christie. He's to the right of Romney/McCain on the issues I think...

Rubio is almost as right wing as Cruz !

Plato_Says

1:17PM
Christopher Hope
Boris Johnson was interrupted 57 times on the Andrew Marr Show today; PM was only intrerrupted 23 times two weeks ago. #marr

Plato_Says

Ben Riley Smith
NEW -- Twice as many Tory local chairmen back Brexit than staying in EU, BBC survey reveals.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12185065/Twice-as-many-Tory-local-chairmen-back-Brexit-than-staying-in-EU-survey-reveals.html

kle4

MonikerDiCanio said:

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

Truth be told Cameron is just a bland ingratiating PR guy who was marginally more palatable than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. He's been found out over the past month and he's starting to stink. The sooner he goes the better.

I think he's a shade above bland personally. I'm generally inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt more than most politicians as a result . He's just on the wrong side of this issue, and not adequate to contain/not aggravate the divisions in his own party.

FrancisUrquhart

Only another 360 odd days until House of Cards Season 5.....

Pulpstar

Why do I get the feeling Nate Silver doesn't like Donald Trump.

No way was the night a 2/10 for him. At least a 4, probably a 5 given he won Kentucky.

Sean_F

rottenborough said:

peter_from_putney said:

Leaving aside Boris, Osborne and Mrs May which I most assuredly would and looking down the list of other current Cabinet Ministers (a perilously restrictive strategy I appreciate), I can only find half a dozen of other realistic possible candidates as follows, showing their best decimal odds and from whom these are available:

Philip Hammond ............ 40 (Betfair)
Michael Gove ................. 15 (Various)
Michael Fallon ............... 50 (Ladbrokes)
Jeremy Hunt .................. 46 (Betfair)
Nicky Morgan ................ 66 (Skybet)
Sajid Javid ..................... 17 (Bet365)

From the above sextet, I reckon the best value for money, not to win, but as trading opportunities are Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid.

IMHO, it's difficult to think of any other Cabinet Ministers having more than a 1% - 2% chance at best of becoming Tory Leader, thereby warranting odds of at least 50/1 - 100/1.
DYOR

Morgan is certainly worth considering as a trading bet, as she seems to want to stand and makes sure this is known at every opportunity. Personally, I think she is utterly deluded, but she'll try and that will bring down the odds.

I don't understand why she thinks she's leadership material.

flightpath01

rottenborough said:

Plato_Says said:

"This is like the jailer has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the sunlit land beyond," he said.

"And everybody is suddenly wrangling about the terrors of the world outside."

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules.

Its an absurd analogy. But then someone let the lunatics out of the asylum...

kle4

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Courting MPs should definitely help him, but the problem with being a backroom manipulator and schemer, operating in the dark, is sometimes when it is time for all to act in the light, the schemes fall apart and people do not act as they otherwise would. Or to put it another way, how firm is the support he has courted, should things really turn against him, economically or otherwise?

Plato_Says

Sunday Politics
"Entirely fair we talk about £350m that we're having to send every week to Brussels" @DouglasCarswell tells @afneil https://t.co/h49sWqzzPe

Video

Alistair

FTPT

Pong said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

Alistair said:

I have reduced my exposure to the RepNom market but increased my green on Trump. I am lovin this.

For the nomination or POTUS?

Nomination.

I traded bady a week ago so I am doing worse than I was but I've gone from

Trump +1
Cruz+6.5
Rubio-1
Field 0

To

Trump+2
Cruz+.5
Ryan/Romeny +.5
Field 0

Given I think Trump has this locked up I am happy with where I am.

You didn't trade that badly by the looks of it.

Given Cruz's price did exactly what I predicted it would over the last week and a bit almost to the decimal place I didn't buy enough when it was a high and sold too early when it was going down.

I should be sitting with Trump +4 rather than +2 if I hadn't had an attack of the vapours.

rottenborough

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
NEW -- Twice as many Tory local chairmen back Brexit than staying in EU, BBC survey reveals.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12185065/Twice-as-many-Tory-local-chairmen-back-Brexit-than-staying-in-EU-survey-reveals.html

and this is news?

flightpath01

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

Not an Osborne fan ?

Osborne for Foreign Secretary. Hammond to Justice.

EPG

Plato_Says said:

1:17PM
Christopher Hope
Boris Johnson was interrupted 57 times on the Andrew Marr Show today; PM was only intrerrupted 23 times two weeks ago. #marr

Maybe he talked more nonsense?
Come on, it's Boris Johnson.
Fake balance for fruitcakes is the LEAVE cry now

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Kasich isn't really a liberal Nick. He's played his campaign to the centre, but the only actual centrist in the GOP race was Chris Christie. He's to the right of Romney/McCain on the issues I think...

Rubio is almost as right wing as Cruz !

Kasich has said he accepts climate change and the verdict of the Supreme Court on gay marriage, he is left of Romney and certainly the most centrist candidate left in the race

flightpath01

MonikerDiCanio said:

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

Truth be told Cameron is just a bland ingratiating PR guy who was marginally more palatable than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. He's been found out over the past month and he's starting to stink. The sooner he goes the better.

You will wake up one day.

david_herdson

scotslass said:

Alistair

I saw the Davidson interview and despite getting a lobbed a series of softballs from the totally and shamelessly biased Gordon Brewer she was hopeless - getting confused on tax policy and giggling her way through explaining why with a NEGATIVE popularity rating her name should be on the ballot paper.

She is vastly hyped up and heading for a fall in third place.

Nearly every politician has a negative popularity rating. What matters is how they poll against their party's score.

Alistair

scotslass said:

Alistair

I saw the Davidson interview and despite getting a lobbed a series of softballs from the totally and shamelessly biased Gordon Brewer she was hopeless - getting confused on tax policy and giggling her way through explaining why with a NEGATIVE popularity rating her name should be on the ballot paper.

She is vastly hyped up and heading for a fall in third place.

https://twitter.com/DavidJFHalliday/status/706445956242399236

JohnO

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
NEW -- Twice as many Tory local chairmen back Brexit than staying in EU, BBC survey reveals.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12185065/Twice-as-many-Tory-local-chairmen-back-Brexit-than-staying-in-EU-survey-reveals.html

54 out of how many Cons Associations??

frpenkridge

"It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules."
In the EU prison we act like Godber whilst France and Germany act like Harry Grout.

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Courting MPs should definitely help him, but the problem with being a backroom manipulator and schemer, operating in the dark, is sometimes when it is time for all to act in the light, the schemes fall apart and people do not act as they otherwise would. Or to put it another way, how firm is the support he has courted, should things really turn against him, economically or otherwise?

It is by no means guaranteed but Osborne certainly has a good chance of ensuring MPs put him through to the final round with Gove and knock out Boris

kle4

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

peter_from_putney said:

Leaving aside Boris, Osborne and Mrs May which I most assuredly would and looking down the list of other current Cabinet Ministers (a perilously restrictive strategy I appreciate), I can only find half a dozen of other realistic possible candidates as follows, showing their best decimal odds and from whom these are available:

Philip Hammond ............ 40 (Betfair)
Michael Gove ................. 15 (Various)
Michael Fallon ............... 50 (Ladbrokes)
Jeremy Hunt .................. 46 (Betfair)
Nicky Morgan ................ 66 (Skybet)
Sajid Javid ..................... 17 (Bet365)

From the above sextet, I reckon the best value for money, not to win, but as trading opportunities are Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid.

IMHO, it's difficult to think of any other Cabinet Ministers having more than a 1% - 2% chance at best of becoming Tory Leader, thereby warranting odds of at least 50/1 - 100/1.
DYOR

Morgan is certainly worth considering as a trading bet, as she seems to want to stand and makes sure this is known at every opportunity. Personally, I think she is utterly deluded, but she'll try and that will bring down the odds.

I don't understand why she thinks she's leadership material.

Well, self confidence is one quality that is worthy leadership material; it's just a really bad thing if that's all they've got going for them. I don't know enough about Morgan to know if that is the only leadership quality she has though.

Alistair

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Scott Walker?

Ha ha ha no.

He's a political midget who's home state scandals would basically give Hilary a free pass on integrity.

And people backed him @ 4.6 - Lol.

Plato_Says

I'm watching now...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Only another 360 odd days until House of Cards Season 5.....

Plato_Says

CLAPS

frpenkridge said:

"It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules."
In the EU prison we act like Godber whilst France and Germany act like Harry Grout.

kle4

Plato_Says said:

I'm watching now...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Only another 360 odd days until House of Cards Season 5.....

Finished it up yesterday - I do like TV designed for binge watching, I must say.

peter_from_putney

JosiasJessop said:

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

For these reasons, I'd look to real outsiders. I'd be intrigued to see how Rory Stewart might do the job, although his experience of managing Iraqi provinces might not have prepared him for the infighting within the Tory party ...

Thanks for suggesting that left field possibility ..... that's what we need from a betting perspective - a handful of talented but unconsidered rank outsiders, Corbyn equivalents if you will, at triple digit odds! But please don't mention my local MP for London SW15; in my view she has absolutely no chance whatsoever ...... are you hearing this Mr. Dancer?

FrancisUrquhart

Plato_Says said:

1:17PM
Christopher Hope
Boris Johnson was interrupted 57 times on the Andrew Marr Show today; PM was only intrerrupted 23 times two weeks ago. #marr

Its a good job Evan Davis wasn't doing the interview, it would have been about 570 interruptions.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Scott Walker?

Ha ha ha no.

He's a political midget who's home state scandals would basically give Hilary a free pass on integrity.

And people backed him @ 4.6 - Lol.

Scott Walker has just been put back in the GOP nominee race on Betfair trolololol.

david_herdson

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Courting MPs should definitely help him, but the problem with being a backroom manipulator and schemer, operating in the dark, is sometimes when it is time for all to act in the light, the schemes fall apart and people do not act as they otherwise would. Or to put it another way, how firm is the support he has courted, should things really turn against him, economically or otherwise?

It is by no means guaranteed but Osborne certainly has a good chance of ensuring MPs put him through to the final round with Gove and knock out Boris

It worked for Brown in no small part because Labour MPs nominations are public and so he could see which promises were not being kept / favours did not have be returned. Osborne will have no such advantage.

rottenborough

peter_from_putney said:

JosiasJessop said:

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

For these reasons, I'd look to real outsiders. I'd be intrigued to see how Rory Stewart might do the job, although his experience of managing Iraqi provinces might not have prepared him for the infighting within the Tory party ...

Thanks for suggesting that left field possibility ..... that's what we need from a betting perspective - a handful of talented but unconsidered rank outsiders, Corbyn equivalents if you will, at triple digit odds! But please don't mention my local MP for London SW15; in my view she has absolutely no chance whatsoever ...... are you hearing this Mr. Dancer?

Rory is only 75 on BF.

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Scott Walker?

Ha ha ha no.

He's a political midget who's home state scandals would basically give Hilary a free pass on integrity.

And people backed him @ 4.6 - Lol.

Scott Walker has just been put back in the GOP nominee race on Betfair trolololol.

600.

MonikerDiCanio

flightpath01 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

Truth be told Cameron is just a bland ingratiating PR guy who was marginally more palatable than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. He's been found out over the past month and he's starting to stink. The sooner he goes the better.

You will wake up one day.

Cameron no longer represents the Tory party, Johnson does. It's time for Dave to join his hero Tony on the lucrative and contemptible ex-statesman's lecture circuit.

Plato_Says

I leave seasons until at least halfway so I can binge. Caught up with Supernatural S11 and TVD S7 over the last three days.

Big improvements on their S10 and S6 incarnations. Just rewatched iZombie S1 - it's even better than I remember. S2 Agent Carter is pretty good.

kle4 said:

Plato_Says said:

I'm watching now...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Only another 360 odd days until House of Cards Season 5.....

Finished it up yesterday - I do like TV designed for binge watching, I must say.

Plato_Says

I'm not sure that Evan even needs guests. A cardboard cutout would be allowed as much airtime.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Plato_Says said:

1:17PM
Christopher Hope
Boris Johnson was interrupted 57 times on the Andrew Marr Show today; PM was only intrerrupted 23 times two weeks ago. #marr

Its a good job Evan Davis wasn't doing the interview, it would have been about 570 interruptions.

DecrepitJohnL

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Kasich isn't really a liberal Nick. He's played his campaign to the centre, but the only actual centrist in the GOP race was Chris Christie. He's to the right of Romney/McCain on the issues I think...

Rubio is almost as right wing as Cruz !

Kasich has said he accepts climate change and the verdict of the Supreme Court on gay marriage, he is left of Romney and certainly the most centrist candidate left in the race

Kasich cut off funds to Planned Parenthood in Ohio; he is further to the right than he makes out. What is unusual is that Kasich has set out to defy the conventional wisdom that candidates pander to the right in the primaries then tack back to the centre for the election.

DecrepitJohnL

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Courting MPs should definitely help him, but the problem with being a backroom manipulator and schemer, operating in the dark, is sometimes when it is time for all to act in the light, the schemes fall apart and people do not act as they otherwise would. Or to put it another way, how firm is the support he has courted, should things really turn against him, economically or otherwise?

It is by no means guaranteed but Osborne certainly has a good chance of ensuring MPs put him through to the final round with Gove and knock out Boris

It worked for Brown in no small part because Labour MPs nominations are public and so he could see which promises were not being kept / favours did not have be returned. Osborne will have no such advantage.

As David Davis found out when his promised support did not materialise against Cameron.

matt

MonikerDiCanio said:

flightpath01 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

Truth be told Cameron is just a bland ingratiating PR guy who was marginally more palatable than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. He's been found out over the past month and he's starting to stink. The sooner he goes the better.

You will wake up one day.

Cameron no longer represents the Tory party, Johnson does. It's time for Dave to join his hero Tony on the lucrative and contemptible ex-statesman's lecture circuit.

As I understand it opinion polls suggest otherwise. But you're not really one for evidence based opinions, are you.

Plato_Says

Depressingly unsurprising

Andrew Neil
Europol says people-smuggling now fastest growing criminal activity in Europe.

kle4

Plato_Says said:

Depressingly unsurprising

Andrew Neil
Europol says people-smuggling now fastest growing criminal activity in Europe.

Is it one of those illegal activities that gets counted in GDP calculations? If so, good news!

OllyT

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

Come on Plato, be honest, if Boris had fallen off the fence and landed on the other side you and the other BREXITERS would be slagging him off unmercifully on a daily basis.

kle4

OllyT said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

Come on Plato, be honest, if Boris had fallen off the fence and landed on the other side you and the other BREXITERS would be slagging him off unmercifully on a daily basis.

If his opinion had been different, people would have a different opinion of him, what a shock.

PS I've not seen the Boris clips today, but it doesn't sound great from him.

malcolmg

Alistair said:

I may be paraphrasing a little

Tories will say and do anything to try and get a losers seat

peter_from_putney

frpenkridge said:

"It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules."
In the EU prison we act like Godber whilst France and Germany act like Harry Grout.

Did you say Grout with a "G"?

Plato_Says

peter_from_putney said:

frpenkridge said:

"It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules."
In the EU prison we act like Godber whilst France and Germany act like Harry Grout.

Did you say Grout with a "G"?

HYUFD

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Courting MPs should definitely help him, but the problem with being a backroom manipulator and schemer, operating in the dark, is sometimes when it is time for all to act in the light, the schemes fall apart and people do not act as they otherwise would. Or to put it another way, how firm is the support he has courted, should things really turn against him, economically or otherwise?

It is by no means guaranteed but Osborne certainly has a good chance of ensuring MPs put him through to the final round with Gove and knock out Boris

It worked for Brown in no small part because Labour MPs nominations are public and so he could see which promises were not being kept / favours did not have be returned. Osborne will have no such advantage.

Osborne has been courting MPs even more assidiously than Brown and he has the advantage that Gove is more popular with MPs than Boris, I could well see Osborne coming top amongst MPs in the final round with Gove knocking out Boris to set up a ballot of Osborne v Gove to be sent to the membership

Fishing

frpenkridge said:

"It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules."
In the EU prison we act like Godber whilst France and Germany act like Harry Grout.

Aren't there prisons in the Philippines and South America where the authorities basically let the gangs run them as long as they don't leave and don't kill anyone? It's not a bad analogy if Boris was thinking of one of those.

HYUFD

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Kasich isn't really a liberal Nick. He's played his campaign to the centre, but the only actual centrist in the GOP race was Chris Christie. He's to the right of Romney/McCain on the issues I think...

Rubio is almost as right wing as Cruz !

Kasich has said he accepts climate change and the verdict of the Supreme Court on gay marriage, he is left of Romney and certainly the most centrist candidate left in the race

Kasich cut off funds to Planned Parenthood in Ohio; he is further to the right than he makes out. What is unusual is that Kasich has set out to defy the conventional wisdom that candidates pander to the right in the primaries then tack back to the centre for the election.

Planned Parenthood is a very pro choice organisation that makes little difference to his overall position which is well to the left of the other 3, including Rubio and I would agree will probably ensure he does not get the nomination given the base's present mood and the results so far