politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Delegates as they stand according to Rod's spreadsheet

Kansas

Cruz 24
Trump 10
Rubio 6

Maine (more likely to change)

Cruz 11
Trump 9
Rubio 3

538 targets for today as a whole [4 contests]:

Trump 69 (on 19 so far)
Cruz 71 (on 35 so far)
Rubio 54 (on 9 so far)

we can see who is going to be way out....

peter_from_putney said:

A question for those who know about these things - would John Kasich be likely to benefit were Marco Rubio to withdraw from the GOP contest in the near future?

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic - sorry Mike

Next Newcastle Manager?

The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
DYOR.

EPG said:

One of the more sensational nights in political betting I can recall.

foxinsoxuk said:

nigel4england said:

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic - sorry Mike

Next Newcastle Manager?

The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
DYOR.

Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.

I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.

peter_from_putney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nigel4england said:

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic - sorry Mike

Next Newcastle Manager?

The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
DYOR.

Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.

I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.

Yep, shame about the son!

blackburn63 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

peter_from_putney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nigel4england said:

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic - sorry Mike

Next Newcastle Manager?

The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
DYOR.

Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.

I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.

Yep, shame about the son!

The racist orgy in Thailand was why Pearson left and Ranieri took over. It turned out to be very fortunate indeed.

Eh?

blackburn63 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

peter_from_putney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nigel4england said:

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic - sorry Mike

Next Newcastle Manager?

The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
DYOR.

Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.

I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.

Yep, shame about the son!

The racist orgy in Thailand was why Pearson left and Ranieri took over. It turned out to be very fortunate indeed.

Eh?

EPG said:

So, upcoming for Republicans this week are Puerto Rico, presumed Rubio but surely non-Trump; Hawaii and Idaho, caucuses which don't favour Trump, more so Hawaii; Mississippi which must by now be competitively Trump v Cruz; and Michigan in which Kasich looks like he will win or come 4th or anything in between. Then DC - a few thousand rock-ribbed establishment Republicans. So, I am negative outlook on Trump sentiment through next weekend, so perhaps buy Cruz now and top up on Trump later?

Pong said:

EPG said:

So, upcoming for Republicans this week are Puerto Rico, presumed Rubio but surely non-Trump; Hawaii and Idaho, caucuses which don't favour Trump, more so Hawaii; Mississippi which must by now be competitively Trump v Cruz; and Michigan in which Kasich looks like he will win or come 4th or anything in between. Then DC - a few thousand rock-ribbed establishment Republicans. So, I am negative outlook on Trump sentiment through next weekend, so perhaps buy Cruz now and top up on Trump later?

The narrative certainly favours cruz.

Tissue_Price said:

I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

blackburn63 said:

Having read this evening's posts 1 or 2 are upset by name calling, come on this is the internet, of course people react differently than they would in "real life", whatever that may be. It's the contempt I find uncomfortable, as a long term conservative voter I always struggled with the "right to rule" ethos.

I've been called all sorts of names on here, meh, if in the unlikely event I attended a pb drink up I know nobody would call me those names. I'd be very happy to continue with my long standing disdain for Cameron, I knew plenty would twig in the end.

NickPalmer said:

First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

Winning party: Democrats.

NickPalmer said:

First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

rottenborough said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Pong said:

Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

and Kentucky looks good for him.

3/4?

Maine - only one precinct so far?

see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/

Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?

HYUFD said:

Kentucky 3% in

Trump 38.9%
Cruz 36.3%
Rubio 13.9%
Kasich 9.7%

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/

rottenborough said:

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

Winning party: Democrats.

Yep, I'm sticking to Clinton from now on, but a couple of quid on Ryan and a brokered convention is not too crazy.

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Kentucky 3% in

Trump 38.9%
Cruz 36.3%
Rubio 13.9%
Kasich 9.7%

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/

"Kentucky is unlikely to alter the delegate math much; all its delegates are awarded proportionally with just a 5 percent threshold" - 5-30-8

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

Winning party: Democrats.

Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.

Why Ryan and not Romney ?

Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?

Speedy said:

rottenborough said:

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

Winning party: Democrats.

Yep, I'm sticking to Clinton from now on, but a couple of quid on Ryan and a brokered convention is not too crazy.

No seriously, Winning party: Democrats.

Look at the options:

1. Convention fight, Winner: Democrats
2. Trump, Winner: Democrats
3. Cruz, Winner: Democrats

And a landslide win for Democrats, even if they pick Ryan or person X at the convention, the Republican party looks like an unrepearable mess, it reminds me of Syria.

Yeap that's the correct analogy:
The GOP is like the Syrian civil war.

I say Winner: Democrats because there is still a minor risk that Hillary doesn't make it for any reason.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Saw this on Facebook:

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/11050226_10153948913580987_6129727251742469344_n.jpg?oh=6ffc2146ce5033089d3c0ebe62d12b00&oe=575E80A4

Speedy said:

rottenborough said:

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

Winning party: Democrats.

Yep, I'm sticking to Clinton from now on, but a couple of quid on Ryan and a brokered convention is not too crazy.

No seriously, Winning party: Democrats.

Look at the options:

1. Convention fight, Winner: Democrats
2. Trump, Winner: Democrats
3. Cruz, Winner: Democrats

And a landslide win for Democrats, even if they pick Ryan or person X at the convention, the Republican party looks like an unrepearable mess, it reminds me of Syria.

Yeap that's the correct analogy:
The GOP is like the Syrian civil war.

I say Winner: Democrats because there is still a minor risk that Hillary doesn't make it for any reason.

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

So I'm back.

I was right again wasn't I ?

On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either

Speedy said:

rottenborough said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Pong said:

Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

and Kentucky looks good for him.

3/4?

Maine - only one precinct so far?

see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/

Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?

They get them at the source on the count.
They don't wait for the official ones from AP.

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

So I'm back.

I was right again wasn't I ?

On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either

I will be certain who wins Kentucky when more counties come in, including Franklin.
Though Trump has the early lead.

I think the margin in Maine for Cruz may go down.

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

Winning party: Democrats.

Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.

Why Ryan and not Romney ?

Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?

I had a moment earlier in the day when I though a bet on Romney was not totally mad, but he's lost twice, so maybe he is more kingmaker these days?

MTimT said:

Speedy said:

rottenborough said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Pong said:

Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

and Kentucky looks good for him.

3/4?

Maine - only one precinct so far?

see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/

Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?

They get them at the source on the count.
They don't wait for the official ones from AP.

They are at odds with RCP's counts. Check Kansas 97% reporting - a lot of difference in the two sets of figures.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

So I'm back.

I was right again wasn't I ?

On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either

I will be certain who wins Kentucky when more counties come in, including Franklin.
Though Trump has the early lead.

I think the margin in Maine for Cruz may go down.

Yes Trump is doing better as the later results come in

Not really enough, I'd say a lead of ~8%

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

Eh? I've got NY Times saying: 50 to 24 (Trump, Cruz).

Sorry, meant Kentucky

RobD said:

Speedy said:

I don't doubt that the official results are more accurate.
Speed comes with declining accuracy.

Clearly it doesn't apply to posters called Speedy

Tissue_Price said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

Winning party: Democrats.

Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.

Why Ryan and not Romney ?

Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?

I had a moment earlier in the day when I though a bet on Romney was not totally mad, but he's lost twice, so maybe he is more kingmaker these days?

Romney's already lost - a fresher face would be sensible. I'd rather take Ryan at the same price.

Rubio's goose is in a Floridian oven.

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

If this resolves to Biden v Ryan the drinks are on me at the next PB meet.

You'd have to favour Biden I'd have thought. Seeing as the Trump voters won't come out for him, and Biden's votes will be motivated by the FBI.