Owen Jones @OwenJones84 1h1 hour ago I would genuinely prefer Donald Trump to Ted Cruz, in what can only be described as a fight between TB and cholera
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
The predictive power of Iowa and N.H is proved again.
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
The predictive power of Iowa and N.H is proved again.
It will only be a 2 person race once Florida and Ohio and most of the big states vote and Trump will win New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and California if he faces Cruz head to head from April in those states
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
From here on in, we have to stop thinking about Rubio as a possible winner, and start thinking about his effect on the Trump v Cruz race
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
From here on in, we have to stop thinking about Rubio as a possible winner, and start thinking about his effect on the Trump v Cruz race
One question that I haven't asked much this week is what's Kasich's role? I bought him at 100s but sold too early when he seemed to be failing after Carson's departure; now he's just going up and up Though biased against him due to this misbehaviour and his boringness, he could be a significant factor in a Trump-Cruz race detracting moderate-conservatives from, I guess, Trump at that stage? If he wins Michigan, then Ohio, he may continue and to garner votes. His conservative credentials are good enough to be VP for Cruz if this works However, I don't see a scenario in which he gets above both Cruz and Trump in time for the less-proportional states
An extended Trump-Cruz head-to-head might be the ideal scenario for the mainstream GOP to be reconciled to Trump's candidacy. Without anyone viable in the 'establishment lane' Trump will have space to become the unifier he'll need to be to have a chance in the general election.
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
From here on in, we have to stop thinking about Rubio as a possible winner, and start thinking about his effect on the Trump v Cruz race
One question that I haven't asked much this week is what's Kasich's role? I bought him at 100s but sold too early when he seemed to be failing after Carson's departure; now he's just going up and up Though biased against him due to this misbehaviour and his boringness, he could be a significant factor in a Trump-Cruz race detracting moderate-conservatives from, I guess, Trump at that stage? If he wins Michigan, then Ohio, he may continue and to garner votes. His conservative credentials are good enough to be VP for Cruz if this works However, I don't see a scenario in which he gets above both Cruz and Trump in time for the less-proportional states
Not going to win, but big impact on the race. Add even half his votes to Rubio and Rubio would still be in with a shout
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
From here on in, we have to stop thinking about Rubio as a possible winner, and start thinking about his effect on the Trump v Cruz race
One question that I haven't asked much this week is what's Kasich's role? I bought him at 100s but sold too early when he seemed to be failing after Carson's departure; now he's just going up and up Though biased against him due to this misbehaviour and his boringness, he could be a significant factor in a Trump-Cruz race detracting moderate-conservatives from, I guess, Trump at that stage? If he wins Michigan, then Ohio, he may continue and to garner votes. His conservative credentials are good enough to be VP for Cruz if this works However, I don't see a scenario in which he gets above both Cruz and Trump in time for the less-proportional states
2.8 for veep on BF. Doesn't seem value to me, given that potential veep candidates is a huge set (who the hell had Palin down in 2008?)
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
From here on in, we have to stop thinking about Rubio as a possible winner, and start thinking about his effect on the Trump v Cruz race
One question that I haven't asked much this week is what's Kasich's role? I bought him at 100s but sold too early when he seemed to be failing after Carson's departure; now he's just going up and up Though biased against him due to this misbehaviour and his boringness, he could be a significant factor in a Trump-Cruz race detracting moderate-conservatives from, I guess, Trump at that stage? If he wins Michigan, then Ohio, he may continue and to garner votes. His conservative credentials are good enough to be VP for Cruz if this works However, I don't see a scenario in which he gets above both Cruz and Trump in time for the less-proportional states
2.8 for veep on BF. Doesn't seem value to me, given that potential veep candidates is a huge set (who the hell had Palin down in 2008?)
Hmm looks about right to me. Unless you know Cruz is going to be particularly strong in Jefferson county I don't think we have the same dynamic at hand here that made Rubio great value when someone offered up a lay of 1.02 there.
Amassing a strong lead in Kentucky (unfortunately, in a betting sense for me; but I actually hold a fair opinion of Trump as a candidate, out of the GOP field)
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
From here on in, we have to stop thinking about Rubio as a possible winner, and start thinking about his effect on the Trump v Cruz race
One question that I haven't asked much this week is what's Kasich's role? I bought him at 100s but sold too early when he seemed to be failing after Carson's departure; now he's just going up and up Though biased against him due to this misbehaviour and his boringness, he could be a significant factor in a Trump-Cruz race detracting moderate-conservatives from, I guess, Trump at that stage? If he wins Michigan, then Ohio, he may continue and to garner votes. His conservative credentials are good enough to be VP for Cruz if this works However, I don't see a scenario in which he gets above both Cruz and Trump in time for the less-proportional states
2.8 for veep on BF. Doesn't seem value to me, given that potential veep candidates is a huge set (who the hell had Palin down in 2008?)
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
From here on in, we have to stop thinking about Rubio as a possible winner, and start thinking about his effect on the Trump v Cruz race
One question that I haven't asked much this week is what's Kasich's role? I bought him at 100s but sold too early when he seemed to be failing after Carson's departure; now he's just going up and up Though biased against him due to this misbehaviour and his boringness, he could be a significant factor in a Trump-Cruz race detracting moderate-conservatives from, I guess, Trump at that stage? If he wins Michigan, then Ohio, he may continue and to garner votes. His conservative credentials are good enough to be VP for Cruz if this works However, I don't see a scenario in which he gets above both Cruz and Trump in time for the less-proportional states
2.8 for veep on BF. Doesn't seem value to me, given that potential veep candidates is a huge set (who the hell had Palin down in 2008?)
Don't ask me my source for this story but it's probably available from a Google search - some punter was watching one of the flight tracker websites, and noticed a Gulfstream private jet flying from Alaska to Arizona and onward to the site of a McCain rally in Ohio...
Whatever the final results tonight, I think we can all see that the voters have decided to make this a 2 person race. And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
Can you really imagine NY or CA going for Cruz?
Yep exactly. Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
From here on in, we have to stop thinking about Rubio as a possible winner, and start thinking about his effect on the Trump v Cruz race
One question that I haven't asked much this week is what's Kasich's role? I bought him at 100s but sold too early when he seemed to be failing after Carson's departure; now he's just going up and up Though biased against him due to this misbehaviour and his boringness, he could be a significant factor in a Trump-Cruz race detracting moderate-conservatives from, I guess, Trump at that stage? If he wins Michigan, then Ohio, he may continue and to garner votes. His conservative credentials are good enough to be VP for Cruz if this works However, I don't see a scenario in which he gets above both Cruz and Trump in time for the less-proportional states
2.8 for veep on BF. Doesn't seem value to me, given that potential veep candidates is a huge set (who the hell had Palin down in 2008?)
Don't ask me my source for this story but it's probably available from a Google search - some punter was watching one of the flight tracker websites, and noticed a Gulfstream private jet flying from Alaska to Arizona and onward to the site of a McCain rally in Ohio...
I remember that day, and I remember doubling my relatively small stake on the news (although I could have sworn it was the week of the RNC?). Paid to fix my old car which broke down a few weeks later!
Bedtime, but bottom line is perhaps that resistance to Trump is strengthening, but too little, too late. Rubio seems to be heading for the exit , Cruz doing better than expected but not wonderfully, and it's possible to imagine a late Kasich surge on the back of Michigan and Ohio, but could the late winner-take-all primaries really turn it round that much?
CNN already calls the end of Trump's momentum. They are astounded that Cruz won a New England state.
Just as I predicted 6 hours ago.
It's the resurgence of the concept of momentum, more like. But Cruz is pushing out Rubio, Trump is the constant
Bizarre that Rubio seems to be rising in the national polls, while Cruz is falling (to third).
A leading indicator, or a lagging , or totally irrelevant?
There have been no polls after the Fox debate, it was a bad one for both Rubio and Trump and it was a very good one for Cruz and Kasich. The results tonight reflect that.
Comments
I would genuinely prefer Donald Trump to Ted Cruz, in what can only be described as a fight between TB and cholera
Late night tweeting?
Trump versus 538 targets (approx +30 coming in)
Kansas 11 (-5)
Maine 8 (-1)
Kentucky 17 (-4)
Lousiana ?!
Trump 7
Cruz 4
And in a 2 person race it's way more difficult for Trump to win.
The predictive power of Iowa and N.H is proved again.
I don’t know if Ted Cruz’s “win states” strategy can compete with Rubio’s “just give me the nomination” strategy
Just gone up to 11:5...
Tonight and Florida probably sinks Rubio. Which is great for the Donald.
I'm off to bed now, will see how much of a thumping he's got in Louisiana in the morning.
Though the next week's prospectus will be bad for Trump - though I still favour him in Mississippi given the Kentucky results and the higher share of African-Americans in MS - the negativity could all change if Florida goes his way
So at least until March 15th and FL/OH/IL, it will still be a 4-person race, with very high probability
THEN in April you get the start of a big surge of less-proportional states on the coasts, dominated by California, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the last three in particular favouring Trump over Cruz in a 2-way contest
On a lighter trivium, I learned from the Guardian that Mr Trump is a tee-totaller
In 2012 they went with Romney (as did most of the winner Santorum's pledged delegates)
Trump 39.9%
Cruz 33.8%
Rubio 13.7%
Kasich 10.7%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/Rep
He's not *that* certain to take it is he?
http://frontloading.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_19.html
Reading this, I think a brokered convention would be an absolute nightmare. And probably involve very expensive lawyers.
I bought him at 100s but sold too early when he seemed to be failing after Carson's departure; now he's just going up and up
Though biased against him due to this misbehaviour and his boringness, he could be a significant factor in a Trump-Cruz race detracting moderate-conservatives from, I guess, Trump at that stage?
If he wins Michigan, then Ohio, he may continue and to garner votes. His conservative credentials are good enough to be VP for Cruz if this works
However, I don't see a scenario in which he gets above both Cruz and Trump in time for the less-proportional states
I have no view, but would only observe that the LA allocation rules appear to be the same as last time, which passed without challenge.
"Tory threat to oust PM after EU vote - Win or lose, Cameron faces challenge"
Quite right too imho, he's certainly lost my support.
Can't see Cruz crushing Jefferson.
Nobody has yet come back from this margin in any primary/caucus.
The cities in the middle will decide the victor.
22:11 to Trump
It's obvious though.
However I have turned a decent profit backing in Michigan on WH (25/1) and laying on BF (4/1) given the result is days away
Especially when they are conducted before a debate.
Nebraska and Maine for Sanders too.
Louisiana goes for Hillary.
R I see
I called it what like 6 hours ago.
They are astounded that Cruz won a New England state.
Just as I predicted 6 hours ago.
As you see, Rubio is very low through all states tonight.
A leading indicator, or a lagging , or totally irrelevant?
The results tonight reflect that.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ks/Dem
Maine 9 (-)
Kentucky 19 (-2)
Kansas 9 (-7)
Just 9 to make up in Louisiana, should be possible. Also actual results v Rod's model seem to squeeze worse performing candidates for some reason
Trump 43.4%
Cruz 29.7%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 12.1%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/
https://newrepublic.com/article/123234/marco-rubio-isnt-obama-gop-hes-john-edwards
Trump's lead is large, but most of his best areas in eastern Kentucky are already in.
Trump 47.7%
Cruz 23.3%
Rubio 19.3%
Kasich 3.1%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/la/
If Trump wants to keep it a tie with Cruz tonight, Kentucky is crucial.