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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his

SystemSystem Posts: 12,549
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his own way in the 4 states deciding today


Real Clear Politics

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  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    First .....again!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    Delegates as they stand according to Rod's spreadsheet

    Kansas

    Cruz 24
    Trump 10
    Rubio 6

    Maine (more likely to change)

    Cruz 11
    Trump 9
    Rubio 3

    538 targets for today as a whole [4 contests]:

    Trump 69 (on 19 so far)
    Cruz 71 (on 35 so far)
    Rubio 54 (on 9 so far)

    we can see who is going to be way out....

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Delegates as they stand according to Rod's spreadsheet

    Kansas

    Cruz 24
    Trump 10
    Rubio 6

    Maine (more likely to change)

    Cruz 11
    Trump 9
    Rubio 3

    538 targets for today as a whole [4 contests]:

    Trump 69 (on 19 so far)
    Cruz 71 (on 35 so far)
    Rubio 54 (on 9 so far)

    we can see who is going to be way out....

    Bleak for Rubio. In Kansas alone he needed 13, according to 5-30-8. So far zero.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,560
    A fortnight ago Cruz was 70/1 to be the nominee on Betfair.

    I like these kind of markets.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    Rubio drifted out to 9 on BF since I last looked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,197
    edited March 2016
    Would-be Labour mayor's top adviser is suspended after his homophobic, racist and sexist tweets are exposed

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3478501/Would-Labour-mayor-s-adviser-suspended-homophobic-racist-sexist-tweets-exposed.html

    Seems Sadiq Khan hired a lovely young chap...racist, homophobic, sexist, he has tw@ttered the lot.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    A question for those who know about these things - would John Kasich be likely to benefit were Marco Rubio to withdraw from the GOP contest in the near future?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    rottenborough said:

    Rubio drifted out to 9 on BF since I last looked.

    In Florida, Trump's key mission will now be to ensure Cruz doesn't take it, even if that means soft-pedalling Rubio - and focussing his efforts elsewhere

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Nigel Pearson. Great in a relegation battle, and tood at promotion too. Also comes from NE (Middlesborough).
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2016
    peter_from_putney said:

    A question for those who know about these things - would John Kasich be likely to benefit were Marco Rubio to withdraw from the GOP contest in the near future?

    Yes.

    Very Yes.

    Disclaimer; I don't claim to know about these things. I'm just an ignorant punter. ;)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Given that Kansas is a caucus, there was always a high chance of Trump underperforming considerably.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,929
    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Who
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    peter_from_putney said:

    A question for those who know about these things - would John Kasich be likely to benefit were Marco Rubio to withdraw from the GOP contest in the near future?

    Yes. Cruz is viewed with almost as much suspicion by the Rep Establishment as Trump is.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,737
    One of the more sensational nights in political betting I can recall.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Nigel Pearson. Great in a relegation battle, and tood at promotion too. Also comes from NE (Middlesborough).
    Quite agree, but I heard about this on talkSPORT a few minutes ago, when the media guy was going very strong on it - with the Sunday Telegraph claiming it as an "exclusive", whatever that means!
    Btw BWIN have Pearson as their favourite.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,808
    West Ham surge :)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    EPG said:

    One of the more sensational nights in political betting I can recall.

    Could yet be...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,560
    EPG said:

    One of the more sensational nights in political betting I can recall.

    The the 6th of October 2007 is another contender for that accolade.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nigel4england said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.
    I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.
    I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.
    Yep, shame about the son! You have to wonder what might have been had he stayed at Leicester - the father that is, not the son.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,737
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    EPG said:

    One of the more sensational nights in political betting I can recall.

    The the 6th of October 2007 is another contender for that accolade.
    And that is almost a decade ago.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    peter_from_putney said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.
    I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.
    Yep, shame about the son!
    The racist orgy in Thailand was why Pearson left and Ranieri took over. It turned out to be very fortunate indeed.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Rubio drops 10% in Maine
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    foxinsoxuk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.
    I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.
    Yep, shame about the son!
    The racist orgy in Thailand was why Pearson left and Ranieri took over. It turned out to be very fortunate indeed.
    Eh?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,737
    So, upcoming for Republicans this week are Puerto Rico, presumed Rubio but surely non-Trump; Hawaii and Idaho, caucuses which don't favour Trump, more so Hawaii; Mississippi which must by now be competitively Trump v Cruz; and Michigan in which Kasich looks like he will win or come 4th or anything in between. Then DC - a few thousand rock-ribbed establishment Republicans. So, I am negative outlook on Trump sentiment through next weekend, so perhaps buy Cruz now and top up on Trump later?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    Current delegate est. (from 538 target; they do not sum!)

    Maine

    Cruz 11 (+2)
    Trump 8 (-1)
    Kasich 4 (N/A)
    Rubio 0 (-10)

    Kansas

    Cruz 24 (+4)
    Trump 10 (-6)
    Rubio 6 (-7)
    Kasich 0 (N/A)

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    blackburn63 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.
    I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.
    Yep, shame about the son!
    The racist orgy in Thailand was why Pearson left and Ranieri took over. It turned out to be very fortunate indeed.
    Eh?
    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jun/17/leicester-sack-three-players-racist-thai-orgy
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    blackburn63 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.
    I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.
    Yep, shame about the son!
    The racist orgy in Thailand was why Pearson left and Ranieri took over. It turned out to be very fortunate indeed.
    Eh?
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/leicester-city-boss-sacked-after-6003978

    Life in Leicester is not as dull as some may imagine!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2016
    On Topic Now:

    Best bookies' odds (as opposed to Betfair) for the GOP nomination:

    Trump ....... 1.67 Ladbrokes
    Cruz .......... 6.5 Paddy Power
    Rubio ........ 8.0 Various
    Kasich ........17.0 Various
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    EPG said:

    So, upcoming for Republicans this week are Puerto Rico, presumed Rubio but surely non-Trump; Hawaii and Idaho, caucuses which don't favour Trump, more so Hawaii; Mississippi which must by now be competitively Trump v Cruz; and Michigan in which Kasich looks like he will win or come 4th or anything in between. Then DC - a few thousand rock-ribbed establishment Republicans. So, I am negative outlook on Trump sentiment through next weekend, so perhaps buy Cruz now and top up on Trump later?

    The narrative certainly favours cruz.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rottenborough said:

    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
    see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pong said:

    EPG said:

    So, upcoming for Republicans this week are Puerto Rico, presumed Rubio but surely non-Trump; Hawaii and Idaho, caucuses which don't favour Trump, more so Hawaii; Mississippi which must by now be competitively Trump v Cruz; and Michigan in which Kasich looks like he will win or come 4th or anything in between. Then DC - a few thousand rock-ribbed establishment Republicans. So, I am negative outlook on Trump sentiment through next weekend, so perhaps buy Cruz now and top up on Trump later?

    The narrative certainly favours cruz.
    As Nate Silver said, the loser so far this contest has been "momentum" (and I don't think he meant the Corbynista variety)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Having read this evening's posts 1 or 2 are upset by name calling, come on this is the internet, of course people react differently than they would in "real life", whatever that may be. It's the contempt I find uncomfortable, as a long term conservative voter I always struggled with the "right to rule" ethos.

    I've been called all sorts of names on here, meh, if in the unlikely event I attended a pb drink up I know nobody would call me those names. I'd be very happy to continue with my long standing disdain for Cameron, I knew plenty would twig in the end.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?

    You should have quoted me for odds in Maine... but Trump has closed to 9% off.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    foxinsoxuk said:

    blackburn63 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Off Topic - sorry Mike

    Next Newcastle Manager?

    The Sunday Telegraph has a big splash claiming the job is set to go to ....... David Moyes!
    Best-priced with BWIN at 4.5 (aka 7/2)
    DYOR.

    Why is Pearson never mentioned, he would be my choice.
    I recall that he was deputy manager there some years ago, and took charge as temporary manager for two occasions. Great bloke.
    Yep, shame about the son!
    The racist orgy in Thailand was why Pearson left and Ranieri took over. It turned out to be very fortunate indeed.
    Eh?
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/leicester-city-boss-sacked-after-6003978

    Life in Leicester is not as dull as some may imagine!
    Oh right, my initial reading was that a racist orgy was fortunate. Pearson used to manage Carlisle Utd
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    blackburn63 said:

    Having read this evening's posts 1 or 2 are upset by name calling, come on this is the internet, of course people react differently than they would in "real life", whatever that may be. It's the contempt I find uncomfortable, as a long term conservative voter I always struggled with the "right to rule" ethos.

    I've been called all sorts of names on here, meh, if in the unlikely event I attended a pb drink up I know nobody would call me those names. I'd be very happy to continue with my long standing disdain for Cameron, I knew plenty would twig in the end.

    Having been to a PB drinkies does alter things a bit. It is hard to be quite so rude to someone that you have chatted to over a pint.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
    see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
    Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    NickPalmer said:

    First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

    Kentucky, you mean :)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
    see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
    Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?
    Not sure. Aside from caching issues, has proven accurate so far though
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    NickPalmer said:

    First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

    Think you mean Kentucky!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    NickPalmer said:

    First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

    Eh? I've got NY Times saying: 50 to 24 (Trump, Cruz).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    Kentucky 3% in

    Trump 38.9%
    Cruz 36.3%
    Rubio 13.9%
    Kasich 9.7%

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,910
    edited March 2016
    Well I recently backed Trump for POTUS at 4.3 - not wanting to completely miss the Trump
    bandwagon - just as the band started to leave the wagon! He is now 6.4-6.6.

    Also, a while ago I backed Cruz for the GOP nomination at 5.0 - and had pretty much written this bet off. Cruz is now into 5.6-5.7 for the nomination. So this bet is unexpectedly back in play.

    It's all swings and roundabouts. Not sure overall whether I'm better off or not. I think I would prefer to be back on the ground!

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Yep, I'm sticking to Clinton from now on, but a couple of quid on Ryan and a brokered convention is not too crazy.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
    see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
    Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?
    They get them at the source on the count.
    They don't wait for the official ones from AP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    Speedy said:

    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?

    On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Current delegate est. (from 538 target; they do not sum!)

    Maine

    Cruz 11 (+2)
    Trump 8 (-1)
    Kasich 4 (N/A)
    Rubio 0 (-10)

    Kansas

    Cruz 24 (+4)
    Trump 10 (-6)
    Rubio 6 (-7)
    Kasich 0 (N/A)

    Kentucky

    Trump 17 (-4)
    Cruz 16 (-4)
    Rubio 6 (-11)
    Kasich 4 (N/A)




  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Here's The Sunday Telegraph's story about David Moyes being lined up to take over at Newcastle Utd:
    http://tinyurl.com/je5u5v5
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    HYUFD said:

    Kentucky 3% in

    Trump 38.9%
    Cruz 36.3%
    Rubio 13.9%
    Kasich 9.7%

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/

    "Kentucky is unlikely to alter the delegate math much; all its delegates are awarded proportionally with just a 5 percent threshold" - 5-30-8
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    rottenborough said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Yep, I'm sticking to Clinton from now on, but a couple of quid on Ryan and a brokered convention is not too crazy.
    No point getting Clinton into positive territory yet.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rottenborough said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Yep, I'm sticking to Clinton from now on, but a couple of quid on Ryan and a brokered convention is not too crazy.
    No seriously, Winning party: Democrats.

    Look at the options:

    1. Convention fight, Winner: Democrats
    2. Trump, Winner: Democrats
    3. Cruz, Winner: Democrats

    And a landslide win for Democrats, even if they pick Ryan or person X at the convention, the Republican party looks like an unrepearable mess, it reminds me of Syria.

    Yeap that's the correct analogy:
    The GOP is like the Syrian civil war.

    I say Winner: Democrats because there is still a minor risk that Hillary doesn't make it for any reason.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Tissue_Price said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.
    Why Ryan and not Romney ?

    Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

    Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kentucky 3% in

    Trump 38.9%
    Cruz 36.3%
    Rubio 13.9%
    Kasich 9.7%

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/

    "Kentucky is unlikely to alter the delegate math much; all its delegates are awarded proportionally with just a 5 percent threshold" - 5-30-8
    No, but a win there and Louisiana to make it 2 states a piece tonight for Cruz and Trump would help settle any nerves at Trump Towers
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,808
    edited March 2016
    Saw this on Facebook:

    image
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.
    Why Ryan and not Romney ?

    Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

    Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?
    It could be anyone in the convention, but whoever it is the only winner are the Democrats.
    That's the only sure bet.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,910
    edited March 2016
    peter_from_putney said:

    Here's The Sunday Telegraph's story about David Moyes being lined up to take over at Newcastle Utd:
    http://tinyurl.com/je5u5v5

    If true and "McClaren is next manager out" then it's "hats off" for another prescient prediction at odds of 8/1 by the Sage of PB, (Peter from Putney).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    Speedy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Yep, I'm sticking to Clinton from now on, but a couple of quid on Ryan and a brokered convention is not too crazy.
    No seriously, Winning party: Democrats.

    Look at the options:

    1. Convention fight, Winner: Democrats
    2. Trump, Winner: Democrats
    3. Cruz, Winner: Democrats

    And a landslide win for Democrats, even if they pick Ryan or person X at the convention, the Republican party looks like an unrepearable mess, it reminds me of Syria.

    Yeap that's the correct analogy:
    The GOP is like the Syrian civil war.

    I say Winner: Democrats because there is still a minor risk that Hillary doesn't make it for any reason.
    Fair point. And in fact there is barely any difference between Demo win and Hillary win on BF.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.
    Why Ryan and not Romney ?

    Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

    Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?
    Not even Florida can save Rubio now (brokered convention aside)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Saw this on Facebook:

    https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/11050226_10153948913580987_6129727251742469344_n.jpg?oh=6ffc2146ce5033089d3c0ebe62d12b00&oe=575E80A4

    What is it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.
    Why Ryan and not Romney ?

    Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

    Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?
    I had a moment earlier in the day when I though a bet on Romney was not totally mad, but he's lost twice, so maybe he is more kingmaker these days?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    Speedy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Yep, I'm sticking to Clinton from now on, but a couple of quid on Ryan and a brokered convention is not too crazy.
    No seriously, Winning party: Democrats.

    Look at the options:

    1. Convention fight, Winner: Democrats
    2. Trump, Winner: Democrats
    3. Cruz, Winner: Democrats

    And a landslide win for Democrats, even if they pick Ryan or person X at the convention, the Republican party looks like an unrepearable mess, it reminds me of Syria.

    Yeap that's the correct analogy:
    The GOP is like the Syrian civil war.

    I say Winner: Democrats because there is still a minor risk that Hillary doesn't make it for any reason.
    It may well be a Democrat but not by a landslide
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

    Eh? I've got NY Times saying: 50 to 24 (Trump, Cruz).
    Sorry, meant Kentucky
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?

    On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either
    I will be certain who wins Kentucky when more counties come in, including Franklin.
    Though Trump has the early lead.

    I think the margin in Maine for Cruz may go down.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    NickPalmer said:

    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

    Eh? I've got NY Times saying: 50 to 24 (Trump, Cruz).
    Sorry, meant Kentucky
    Now Trump 42.5% Cruz 33.5%, but that swing was largely a single result. Could still swing to a tight race
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Speedy said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
    see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
    Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?
    They get them at the source on the count.
    They don't wait for the official ones from AP.
    They are at odds with RCP's counts. Check Kansas 97% reporting - a lot of difference in the two sets of figures.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    4% in Kentucky

    Trump 42.5%
    Cruz 33.5%
    Rubio 12.9%
    Kasich 9.6%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/Rep
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    We have forgotten the Democratic contests tonight.

    Sanders is going to have a good night.
    He will win Kansas, Nebraska.
    And Maine tomorrow.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
    see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
    Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?
    They get them at the source on the count.
    They don't wait for the official ones from AP.
    They are at odds with RCP's counts. Check Kansas 97% reporting - a lot of difference in the two sets of figures.
    If you look at the numbers DDHQ are behind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?

    On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either
    I will be certain who wins Kentucky when more counties come in, including Franklin.
    Though Trump has the early lead.

    I think the margin in Maine for Cruz may go down.
    Yes Trump is doing better as the later results come in
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Speedy said:

    We have forgotten the Democratic contests tonight.

    Sanders is going to have a good night.
    He will win Kansas, Nebraska.
    And Maine tomorrow.

    And get tonked in Louisiana. He'll end up further behind tonight.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Loads of panic tonight, and plenty of betting opportunities.

    Bottom line: Cruz might have shaved the grand total of 10 delegates off of Trump's lead...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?

    On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either
    I will be certain who wins Kentucky when more counties come in, including Franklin.
    Though Trump has the early lead.

    I think the margin in Maine for Cruz may go down.
    Yes Trump is doing better as the later results come in
    Not really enough, I'd say a lead of ~8%
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.
    Why Ryan and not Romney ?

    Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

    Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?
    I had a moment earlier in the day when I though a bet on Romney was not totally mad, but he's lost twice, so maybe he is more kingmaker these days?
    Romney's already lost - a fresher face would be sensible. I'd rather take Ryan at the same price.

    Rubio's goose is in a Floridian oven.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,567
    RodCrosby said:

    Loads of panic tonight, and plenty of betting opportunities.

    Bottom line: Cruz might have shaved the grand total of 10 delegates off of Trump's lead...

    Tipping point? :p
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
    see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
    Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?
    They get them at the source on the count.
    They don't wait for the official ones from AP.
    They are at odds with RCP's counts. Check Kansas 97% reporting - a lot of difference in the two sets of figures.
    I don't doubt that the official results are more accurate.
    Speed comes with declining accuracy.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Loads of panic tonight, and plenty of betting opportunities.

    Bottom line: Cruz might have shaved the grand total of 10 delegates off of Trump's lead...

    Tipping point? :p
    Incidentally Rod your spreadsheet is allocating 24 delegates in Maine atm (or the one I'm using is, anyway)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    If this resolves to Biden v Ryan the drinks are on me at the next PB meet.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pong said:

    Soit's looking like cruz gets Kansas and maine.

    and Kentucky looks good for him.

    3/4?

    Maine - only one precinct so far?
    see here: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
    Thanks, but how come this website has results way ahead of Politico or NY Times?
    They get them at the source on the count.
    They don't wait for the official ones from AP.
    They are at odds with RCP's counts. Check Kansas 97% reporting - a lot of difference in the two sets of figures.
    I don't doubt that the official results are more accurate.
    Speed comes with declining accuracy.
    DDHQ are just behind, that's all
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?

    On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either
    I will be certain who wins Kentucky when more counties come in, including Franklin.
    Though Trump has the early lead.

    I think the margin in Maine for Cruz may go down.
    Yes Trump is doing better as the later results come in
    Not really enough, I'd say a lead of ~8%
    Even if he wins Kentucky and Louisiana by just 1 vote that is a huge change in the narrative from a Cruz clean sweep to a 50-50 split of the states tonight
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,567
    Speedy said:


    I don't doubt that the official results are more accurate.
    Speed comes with declining accuracy.

    Clearly it doesn't apply to posters called Speedy :p
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    NickPalmer said:

    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    First Kansas results show a near tie Trump-Cruz, only 1% so far though.

    Eh? I've got NY Times saying: 50 to 24 (Trump, Cruz).
    Sorry, meant Kentucky
    KY picked the last three GOP nominees I think.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    HYUFD said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?

    On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either
    I will be certain who wins Kentucky when more counties come in, including Franklin.
    Though Trump has the early lead.

    I think the margin in Maine for Cruz may go down.
    Yes Trump is doing better as the later results come in
    Not really enough, I'd say a lead of ~8%
    Even if he wins Kentucky and Louisiana by just 1 vote that is a huge change in the narrative from a Cruz clean sweep to a 50-50 split of the states tonight
    I agree completely. (I don't really like Trump but I despise Cruz.)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    When are we expecting first LA results?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Tissue_Price said:

    If this resolves to Biden v Ryan the drinks are on me at the next PB meet.

    You'd have to favour Biden I'd have thought. Seeing as the Trump voters won't come out for him, and Biden's votes will be motivated by the FBI.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:


    I don't doubt that the official results are more accurate.
    Speed comes with declining accuracy.

    Clearly it doesn't apply to posters called Speedy :p
    So far it does not (knock wood).
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    NickPalmer said:

    When are we expecting first LA results?

    They close at 1 AM, so first results probably at 1:30AM.
    I hope I haven't mixed Eastern Time with Central Time and GMT.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Laying into the POTUS market feels so weird.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Loads of panic tonight, and plenty of betting opportunities.

    Bottom line: Cruz might have shaved the grand total of 10 delegates off of Trump's lead...

    Tipping point? :p
    Incidentally Rod your spreadsheet is allocating 24 delegates in Maine atm (or the one I'm using is, anyway)
    Rounding. I never claimed it was perfect!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,581
    Tissue_Price said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think Paul Ryan is the bet on today's results.

    Winning party: Democrats.
    Well, maybe. But 200/1 is a bit sexier than 1/2.
    Why Ryan and not Romney ?

    Romney weilded the knife, so can not stand ?

    Also do you think Rubio's goose is cooked ?
    I had a moment earlier in the day when I though a bet on Romney was not totally mad, but he's lost twice, so maybe he is more kingmaker these days?
    Romney's already lost - a fresher face would be sensible. I'd rather take Ryan at the same price.

    Rubio's goose is in a Floridian oven.
    Trouble is that there are 2 GOP strategies floating around. 1) All the non-trump candidates stay in and try and force a contested convention by denying Trump a majority, 2) Non-trump votes focus on one candidate, the others dropping out.

    Guess which one the remaining non-trump candidates believe in?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    So I'm back.

    I was right again wasn't I ?

    On Kansas yes and Maine probably but not if Kentucky is anything to go by and maybe not when Louisiana gets in either
    I will be certain who wins Kentucky when more counties come in, including Franklin.
    Though Trump has the early lead.

    I think the margin in Maine for Cruz may go down.
    Yes Trump is doing better as the later results come in
    Not really enough, I'd say a lead of ~8%
    Even if he wins Kentucky and Louisiana by just 1 vote that is a huge change in the narrative from a Cruz clean sweep to a 50-50 split of the states tonight
    I agree completely. (I don't really like Trump but I despise Cruz.)
    Indeed but at looks like those two will be the final pair standing in two weeks time, with Trump likely wrapping it up by the end of April
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,414
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    If this resolves to Biden v Ryan the drinks are on me at the next PB meet.

    You'd have to favour Biden I'd have thought. Seeing as the Trump voters won't come out for him, and Biden's votes will be motivated by the FBI.
    It will be neither, unless Clinton is found guilty of treason it will be Clinton v Trump
This discussion has been closed.