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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The collective PBers’ EU Referendum prediction: REMAIN to w

The chart above shows the breakdown by party supported of entrants in PB’s referendum prediction competition. Interestingly breaking this down by party support not one segment had LEAVE ahead although UKIP voters were very nearly there.
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Their Graham Sharpe is a smart cookie, no doubt. God, I was pleased you remembered his name just in time during the introduction!
But your chart leads me to conclude we are collectively suffering from groupthink again, as we were before the last election
http://order-order.com/2016/03/03/junior-doctor-poster-boy-tory-mps-should-all-be-shot/
I hope he takes a lot more care at work when it comes to facts, given the number of factual errors in his facebook post.
A Remain vote leads us down this inevitable path.
Should these numbers ultimately prove to be in the right ball park, then this illustrates the possible value of Wm. Hill's 7/4 odds against a LEAVE vote for England alone.
By my broadbrush assumptions and calculations set out in the previous thread, a 53.25% REMAIN vote for the entire UK & N.I. equated to a parity 50% : 50% vote for England. I've staked a score on this basis to win £35, but DYOR.
In other words, precisely how many green entrants are there!
I predicted a winning margin of circa 24 points. I think my turnout guess was almost exactly average, though.
Stuart Rose is knocking it out of the park again, says he hopes he's dead next time the EU debate comes up. Championing the in camp there
Whatever the rules say, it is not going to be hungry again or turning into a butterfly for a long, long time yet.
http://show.nojam.com/a2t9/summary.php
After being runner up in the last by-election competition, I'll stick with the same strategy.
But there is nothing inevitable in the least about about us joining in, certainly not specifically related to a Remain vote.
Plus it will require another referendum to give up the £.
A Remain vote will specifically endorse a multiple currency EU.
If we 'Leave' then the converse is true indeed 'inevitable' - the EU will become a single currency area and any future desire to rejoin it will mean losing the £. Only by remaining can we guarantee to keep the £.
Will the wisdom of the crowd prove more accurate than the BPC cohorts? or will they herd
1. London-JFK (not Newark, terrible planes from Newark)
2. London-HK
3. London-Lagos
For EVA London-Bankok will be important (presumably a feeder to Taipei where EVA is based)
This is most noticeable on London to Moscow. BA planes are their worst. Aeroflop's planes are their best.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larryolmsted/2013/03/07/radical-business-class-sets-british-airways-apart/#622d794130fa
Just because you book BA doesn't mean you are getting on a BA aircraft.
Anecdote alert:- A couple we know who do some work for us in the garden etc voted UKIP in May as they have views on immigration that make me blush This morning I was moaning to them that I would be glad when the referendum was over. Much to my surprise they told me they were going to vote REMAIN because leaving was going to make "b*gg*r all difference to immigration and without that it was too big a risk. I was genuinely gobsmacked
He's hardly the only one, though his bizarre and tortuous justification for backing Remain did mark him out a bit from the others...
And FWIW I prefered the DC-10 - a very fine aircraft & quieter than the 777.......
You are if you are flying to BKK direct from LHR......
I'll post the essence of any reply which I receive from them.
Except his boss.
It was a joke.
That depends entirely on what you are being 'loyal' to, doesn't it?
I would suggest breaking with loyalty in order to act according to your conscience and for the greater good was a far more admirable quality.
I lurk here mostly. And I spend too much time doing that. What I have never understood is how so many successful professional/business types here find the time. How do you do that?
Plus I spend far too much of my working week either in taxis and long train journeys.
REMAIN 53 - 54
LEAVE 46 - 47
In other words, almost precisely in agreement with the average of PB's competition entrants - God are we collectively very boring or simply very wise?
GOP - Trump 41 .. Carson 21 .. Rubio 15 .. Kasich 9 .. Carson 5
Dem - Clinton 61 .. Sanders 14
http://thehayride.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/LA-PRESPRIM-030116-TOPLINES.pdf
The most fun airline was in Kenya - forgotten their name now, but the pilot safety announcement was full of wisecracks like, "If you've not figured out how seatbelts work yet, you shouldn't be on this plane, so I can't be bothered to tell you".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/12103359/German-finance-minister-proposes-EU-wide-petrol-tax-to-pay-for-refugee-costs.html
GOP - Trump 39 .. Rubio 19 .. Carson 14 .. Kasich 12 .. Carson 9
Dem - Clinton 61 .. Sanders 33
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_FOX_2_GOP_Primary_3-2-16.pdf
Probably be cheaper than the drip drip drip of spend at the moment
Five-Quarter North Sea gas extraction firm collapses https://t.co/BZmwJ3kXmL https://t.co/4vlOiBPX1B
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12174979/Jeremy-Corbyn-is-playing-student-politics-over-Trident-GMB-union-warns.html Seems to be a bit of buyer's remorse amongst the brothers and sisters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12181449/The-EU-Inners-will-regret-turning-Project-Fear-into-Project-White-Flag.html