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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest online ICM poll has IN and OUT level pegging
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest online ICM poll has IN and OUT level pegging
UPDATED. Table showing all recent #EURef poll where ballot question asked pic.twitter.com/br7oqFjeNT
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Can't believe the Irish election count still isn't finished, pretty similar result to Spain and Portugal last year, clear as mud.
not following that logic.
https://www.rt.com/uk/332633-austerity-death-rate-rise/
The absolute death rate is likely to rise over the coming 20 to 30 years across the Western world as the post-WW2 baby boomers begin to die off, and colder winters / potential food shortages going into the 2030 grand solar minimum are not going to help either. After the improvement in 2010, mortality rates have stopped improving - I don't think we should have begun yet to see the impact on the absolute death rate from the baby boomers starting to die off.......whcih in turn raises questions about the performance of the NHS over the past 6 years of this government.
Funnily enough cold weather last winter was blamed for the high number of deaths in 2015, particularly in January and February of last year, yet the global warmists in the government were telling us using their fallacious made up data that it was one of the warmest winters ever. Talk about joined up government!
Too early to be certain but OGH's table suggests a second derivative shift to BOO. The closer we get to BrExit-day the more we should focus upon the third....
Why couldn't we have played like this on Sunday?
This survey 18-24 had Remain 53% LEAVE 20%. The 65+ are 31% Remain 56% Leave.
But, it's good to see so many people resist "too poor, too thick, too small" as an argument against Leave.
Anybody else on the Leave side like me feel rather optimistic?
Meantime Chelsea are eight points off 4th!
A win yesterday would have put us in the playoff's but we lose at home to the bottom side of the division(Colchester U) who haven't won in 19 games and who now has the double over us ;-)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/705136748033085441/photo/1
I thought the FT was a serious paper, it's more ludicrous than the Daily Meeks.
On both sides in the Scottish referendum there was a connection to Britishness and Scottishness whereas with the EU there is absolutely no feeling of that so people will be purely voting on which arguments make most sense as opposed to gut feeling (for example many Scots supporting independence would support it no matter what much as I would EU exit) which cannot be overcome with any amount of argument.
The more I see Remain using absurd claims of doom the happier I am, and the sooner they make themselves look ridiculous the better.
"British tourists could be left STRANDED ABROAD if voters back Brexit, ministers warn"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3468878/Brexit-destabilise-Britain-DECADE-uncertainty-jobs-banks-health-farming-Government-claims-official-report.html#ixzz41mnXIv5y
What I mean is that I feel the majority of those supporting our EU membership do so not out of any conviction or love of the European Union but more so as they believe it is needed for our prosperity/they do not want to rock the boat.
If you look at the polling numbers for Norway and Switzerland on EU membership I think it is clear to see how quickly pro-EU feeling would drop away after we'd left. I think the last poll in Norway was 70% against joining and 15% for.
And Mr Blair is perplexed by it all too:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/former-uk-prime-minister-says-politics-has-changed/
Telegraph - Lord Rose says Brexit wages will rise
I - Lord Rose says Brexit will make everybody financially worse off
WooHoo. After #Brexit the French will give us Calais.
Apparently.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/705154297219178496
Why do intelligent people come out with such utter bollocks, have they no idea what fools they are making of themselves?
Douglas Carswell MP Retweeted Neil Henderson
That's my next Clacton leaflet sorted. Thanks Lord Rose
Neil Henderson @hendopolis
TELEGRAPH: Wages to rise if we quit EU #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
"British pensioners in Spain without pets to eat, WILL TURN ON EACH OTHER FOR FOOD"
"In the event of Brexit, electricity from France will no longer work in British cables, leading to blackouts"
This season is great for Spurs even when we lose.
mind you, we're still going to lose on Saturday against the struggling gooners.
Project Fear is more like Project BS.
That probably explains the variance between the online and phone polls in the EURef polling
Just like we will still have trade, because it is in France / Germany etc interest, so is quicker access as well.
JLR is another.
Change would not be overnight but would be there nonetheless. At some point investment elsewhere would affect the situation here.
Oh no it won't say the leavers. Fine and dandy so long as your job does not depend on their prejudice. Just why should workers play Russian Roulette to satisfy some revenge strategy by a bunch of tory losers.
The laughing at Project Fear has begun in earnest.
I'm sure if we were outside now the proportion wanting to join would be very low as well, 15-20%. It would appear very unappetising prospect for most people, the more so with migrant chaos we have at present.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlD4hwzGhdY
Exiting the EU will LITERALLY LEAVE US GASPING FOR AIR.
Either ComRes / Ipsos Mori/ Survation or ICM/ YouGov/ TNS/ BMG are happily taking someone's fees for producing duff polls. It doesn't install much confidence. I am surprised the industry is content to go on in this way, rapidly losing credibility.
If I were spending cash on any sort of polling I would be beginning to wonder if I was being taken for a ride.
I am very much in the SO camp. I don't believe in reality that much will change. We will still trade with the EU, we will still have to conform to a huge number of their regulations in order to sell, and we will likely still have to have lots of free movement. Now the question is really not much change, is it really worth it then. That is a more difficult question.
I still can't believe that he really thought he could get away with his shambles of a "renegotiation" and everyone would just meekly follow him, like they did Wilson in 1975, into voting to REMAIN,
In an era when people are gravitating towards "outsiders" he has put himself totally on the side of the elites... If he'd been really serious about his renegotiation and had been prepared to walk away from the EU, he too could have presented himself as an "outsider" who has taken on the EU elite and won.... But as it is his renegotiation was a sham and he and Osborne just look silly trying to pretend otherwise...
But there isn't. So we carry on.
As I stated yesterday, where I see things changing would be for example...Spain / Portugal is not going to close their borders to Brit ex-pats living there, but what they will do is bring in things like making them buy private health insurance. These are much more likely knock-on effects of if we were to leave the EU, and would directly affect a lot of people.
If I currently had a nice life as an ex-pat in Spain, that sort of prospect would probably have me voting to stay, rather than nonsense claims of being booted on the next boat to Southampton.