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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » South Carolina goes as expected – an overwhelming victory f

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  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    chestnut said:

    O, sweet irony.

    Flightpath and cobblers.

    Perhaps you could also answer the question of how we square a free trade deal with without freedom of labour. Couldn't possibly be that you don't have an answer could it ? (Bit like IDS)?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Roger said:

    We could always try banning BMW's Mercedes or VW's if the British are going to be happy with that
    I think you're (easily) confused and showing it in spades here.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    @peterdominiczak: IDS says "don't play the man"... about two minutes after a two-footed lunge at David Cameron's knee. #Marr

    Rubbish.

    How could IDS possibly make "a two footed lunge at David Cameron's knee" when he has one foot in his mouth ....

    Referee !!

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    Is being in the EU hindering German exports to the world? It has car factories in America and China.
    German pharmaceuticals is the 4th largest in the world. With a market share of over 11 percent, Germany was the world’s largest exporter of chemical products in 2013. The country exported chemical products with a total value of €166 billion.
    Over 90 percent of Germany’s more than 2,000 chemical companies are small and medium-sized enterprises. They are competitive and employ nearly half a million workers. It invested €10.5 billion in the year 2013'
    Poor hamstrung Germany hobbled to the EU.
    Your point being?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,344
    taffys said:

    I can see 'ratification glitches' becoming a real meme with the average voter.
    Follow thy leader

    "If I cant get the deal, I rule nothing out..."

    Widely acknowledged crap deal

    "If we leave there will be migrant camps in Kent, North Korea will attack, 3 million jobs are at risk, and we will probably get bombed my muslims like Paris... than God for the 4 year ban on migrant benefits"

    Which is actually not even that is it? Sliding scale to full benefits?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Hmm there is no serious left wing party in England though, so it is Labour by default for alot of people.
    There are alternative parties for the working class vote in England.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    EFTA has a free trade deal with Canada. If we joined EFTA we could piggy back theirs.

    There are many 'off the shelf' options readily available.

    Twenty four of the twenty seven EU nations run a trade surplus with us, and the EU's 'privileged partnership' with Turkey shows that an arms-length arrangement is something they are very happy to consider.

    The idea that free movement is some act of God is comedic.

    A gigantic leap in the dark for the EU to lose one of it's biggest members and trading destinations.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    IDS has moved me towards Remain after that performance.

    Leave needs to use more Gove and less IDS in the future.

    The "leadership" of LEAVE are a mess.

    They might start by having a decent heavyweight to front the campaign not disparate Marmite figures who can barely agree on which group should lead let alone the message they should put forward.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2016
    OllyT said:

    Perhaps you could also answer the question of how we square a free trade deal with without freedom of labour. Couldn't possibly be that you don't have an answer could it ? (Bit like IDS)?
    Do China/USA/Canada/etc have a free trade deal with the EC that allows free movement of labour?
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited February 2016

    A so called free trade deal with the EU for any remaining non EU country in Europe will involve free movement of labour.
    As it stands right now any new non EU European country attempting a deal with the EU would have to sign up to Schengen.
    You've not event attempted to answer the question.

    Free movement of labour (in the sense of people) can comprise 3 elements:

    (I) The right to move to accept a confirmed job offer (ie no work permits)
    (Ii) The right to move to a country to look for work + the right of preference in job seeking vs any individual who is not a citizen of the trading bloc
    (Iii) The right to move to a country and claim benefits

    At the moment we have all 3. I'd be fine with (1) and - although 3 is irritating - it is 2 that causes the most damage to those Brits with less differentiated skillsets.

    Where do you think the EU would draw the line in a trade deal - at what point would they walk away?

    (flightpath reply)
    Of course I answered your first question. You had to rephrase it into triple the words to ask it properly.
    The EU would want us to obey the current free movement rules in order to access the free market and to work to the current EU EU free market regs and rules.
    I do not see why (ii) should be any more wrong than the other two. I think the free movement rules should be tighter myself but I am not going to the barricades about it since being in the EEA would make no difference anyway. As part of a trade block I see no reason why workers in that block should not be given preference over people not in that block.

    Being part of a so called free trade deal with the EU would involve the single market and the free movement of labour. Anyone pretending otherwise is stupid or is lying.
    Anyone who wants out of the EU free market is putting a gun to the heads of British workers and suggesting a game of one sided russian roulette.
  • chestnut said:

    There are many 'off the shelf' options readily available.

    Twenty four of the twenty seven EU nations run a trade surplus with us, and the EU's 'privileged partnership' with Turkey shows that an arms-length arrangement is something they are very happy to consider.

    The idea that free movement is some act of God is comedic.

    A gigantic leap in the dark for the EU to lose one of it's biggest members and trading destinations.
    so much for sovereignty then
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    OllyT said:


    Perhaps you could also answer the question of how we square a free trade deal with without freedom of labour. Couldn't possibly be that you don't have an answer could it ? (Bit like IDS)?
    If I manufacture an item in London and stick it on FedEx/UPS to deliver to Berlin (customs free) we have free trade - but absolutely zero requirement to trade in labour.

    Hope that helps.
  • Sean_F said:

    Your point being?
    Germany is not hamstrung by being in the EU. Its exports on the world stage seem more than adequate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    DavidL said:

    David Smiths column in the ST today which can be read on his blog has some interesting stats on UK growth both before and after the UK joined the EEC. Basically our relative growth was much better after we joined even if our absolute growth wasn't.

    It's worth a look but for me the important message is that in or out of the EU membership of the single market is key to our current and future prosperity.

    One other startling fact. Apparently our exports of services doubled between 2006 and 2014. Doubled. Our economy is changing faster than we realise.

    Maybe. But how much is also down to our finally getting to grips with structural issues in our economy? Our failing state industries being privatised, the growth of the City and the freeing up of our entrepreneurial spirit started in the late seventies - which was to do with domestic policy, not that of the EEC.
  • OllyT said:


    Perhaps you could also answer the question of how we square a free trade deal with without freedom of labour. Couldn't possibly be that you don't have an answer could it ? (Bit like IDS)?
    Correct.
    Chestut is just another who has gone bonkers.
  • Iain Duncan Smith reminding us why he is considered the worst Tory leader of recent times
    You have an example of a worse leader of olden times?
  • Mr. Flightpath, the new deal is worse than the status quo ante.

    More importantly, that's not the reason. UKIP were riding high and the Conservative leadership was pressured into making concessions to try and head that threat off.

    You say so but I disagree.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    edited February 2016
    taffys said:

    So we can expect Toronto to be chock full of romanian beggars any day now?
    The irritating thing about free movement is that EU citizens fly in on budget airlines to thieve and beg for a few days and then fly home after making a good tax free profit.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    If I manufacture an item in London and stick it on FedEx/UPS to deliver to Berlin (customs free) we have free trade - but absolutely zero requirement to trade in labour.

    Hope that helps.
    Why should they accept that ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    You've not event attempted to answer the question.

    Free movement of labour (in the sense of people) can comprise 3 elements:

    (I) The right to move to accept a confirmed job offer (ie no work permits)
    (Ii) The right to move to a country to look for work + the right of preference in job seeking vs any individual who is not a citizen of the trading bloc
    (Iii) The right to move to a country and claim benefits

    At the moment we have all 3. I'd be fine with (1) and - although 3 is irritating - it is 2 that causes the most damage to those Brits with less differentiated skillsets.

    Where do you think the EU would draw the line in a trade deal - at what point would they walk away?
    (flightpath reply)
    Of course I answered your first question. You had to rephrase it into triple the words to ask it properly.
    The EU would want us to obey the current free movement rules in order to access the free market and to work to the current EU EU free market regs and rules.
    I do not see why (ii) should be any more wrong than the other two. I think the free movement rules should be tighter myself but I am not going to the barricades about it since being in the EEA would make no difference anyway. As part of a trade block I see no reason why workers in that block should not be given preference over people not in that block.

    Being part of a so called free trade deal with the EU would involve the single market and the free movement of labour. Anyone pretending otherwise is stupid or is lying.
    Anyone who wants out of the EU free market is putting a gun to the heads of British workers and suggesting a game of one sided russian roulette.

    Bullsh1t ! Free movement is our inalienable right. The founding fathers of our Union ensured that.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JackW said:

    The "leadership" of LEAVE are a mess.

    They might start by having a decent heavyweight to front the campaign not disparate Marmite figures who can barely agree on which group should lead let alone the message they should put forward.
    I think two of them could have been candidates: May and Hammond. Both worked out in the end that it was better to stay with REMAIN.

    I am not sure after 23rd June, how people like IDS or Villiers can stay in their jobs. In any event, the opposition need to ask the six MInisters: "Minister: do you agree with the government policy on the EU ? "
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    DavidL said:

    David Smiths column in the ST today which can be read on his blog has some interesting stats on UK growth both before and after the UK joined the EEC. Basically our relative growth was much better after we joined even if our absolute growth wasn't.

    It's worth a look but for me the important message is that in or out of the EU membership of the single market is key to our current and future prosperity.

    One other startling fact. Apparently our exports of services doubled between 2006 and 2014. Doubled. Our economy is changing faster than we realise.

    Alanbrooke and Surbiton keep underlining our week manufacturing performance; beginning to sound like the rebalancing. It seems like service providers are too busy reaping the dividends to post on pb....
  • You seem to tacitly accept that leave is a leap in the dark. As far as remain is concerned the EU is in meltdown and it is facing many challenges. That is why my decision will be neutral until much nearer the time
    I did say it was a stroll in the shadows rather than a leap in the dark. Anyone who claims to be able to predict any future with real certainty is fooling themselves.
  • I did say it was a stroll in the shadows rather than a leap in the dark. Anyone who claims to be able to predict any future with real certainty is fooling themselves.
    Yes but leave have a higher bar as status quo will be the default safe option
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    surbiton said:

    Why should they accept that ?
    Because, in allowing the reciprocal arrangement, they - the Germans - make £30bn a year in profit.
  • You have to admire the Irish for having adopted this system nearly 100 years ago. Well, maybe admire isn't the right word. It's supposed to be fair but Labour could end up with half the number of seats their share of the vote would entitle them to under a strictly proportional electoral system.
    www.0cral.com | green2all.net
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