politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump dominate in the build up to “Super Tuesda

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, why's Rubio abdicating his seat? Not that up on US politics, but it seems a little odd to me.

He is very unpopular in Florida, he would lose his re-election so he is "retiring" .

Mr. Pulpstar, that's why Rubio's losing. A smart man would've accused Trump of typing one-handed

Mr. Speedy, ah.

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

Are you guys sure it's over, Rubio has pointed out some spelling errors by Trump and accused him of wetting himself.

Rubio can point out the spelling mistake in this too:

Newt Gingrich Verified account @newtgingrich

Chris Christie endorsement of Trump is a major breakthrough.this is a huge step for Trump and will impact super tuesday bug time.

BUG time LOOOOOOOOL

RodCrosby said:

As far as I can tell, extrapolating Norpoth's forecast would give EVs of:-

Trump 360
Clinton 178

which is very close to my own pre-Norpoth forecast...

That is very unlikely, right now I have Trump 221 Hillary 228 with Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Iowa as too close too call (89 EV), so I have Trump at a maximum of 310 and Hillary at a minimum of 228.

Looks like it's all over for Rubio.

RodCrosby said:

As far as I can tell, extrapolating Norpoth's forecast would give EVs of:-

Trump 360
Clinton 178

which is very close to my own pre-Norpoth forecast...

One way to reach 178 is as follows:

California (55), Washington (12), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), Maryland (10), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), DC (3). You could swap Oregon for Connecticut.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

I guess this is the only poll that matters now.

AndyJS said:

RodCrosby said:

As far as I can tell, extrapolating Norpoth's forecast would give EVs of:-

Trump 360
Clinton 178

which is very close to my own pre-Norpoth forecast...

One way to reach 178 is as follows:

California (55), Washington (12), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), Maryland (10), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), DC (3).

Trump wont win Wisconsin, republicans are not very popular there after Scott Walker messed up things with its economy and social issues.

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like it's all over for Rubio.

You'd think, but he's still only 3.9 last matched.

I wish I had more confidence in my judgement about US politics. On the face of it, there's an absolute killing to be made backing Donald Trump at current prices but there's a limit to how much I'm willing to expose myself to losses on something I'm not that confident of.

Speedy said:

RodCrosby said:

As far as I can tell, extrapolating Norpoth's forecast would give EVs of:-

Trump 360
Clinton 178

which is very close to my own pre-Norpoth forecast...

That is very unlikely, right now I have Trump 221 Hillary 228 with Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Iowa as too close too call (89 EV), so I have Trump at a maximum of 310 and Hillary at a minimum of 228.

I think the Democrats losing Michigan is very unlikely.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like it's all over for Rubio.

You'd think, but he's still only 3.9 last matched.

I wish I had more confidence in my judgement about US politics. On the face of it, there's an absolute killing to be made backing Donald Trump at current prices but there's a limit to how much I'm willing to expose myself to losses on something I'm not that confident of.

I'm guessing there are still plenty of punters who can't believe that Trump won't self-implode or be found with tax issues or some such.

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like it's all over for Rubio.

Has "Cromwell" started a four year sabbattcal from PB yet? ....

Look the guy did a bad call based on his own surroundings, anyone not paying attention would have done the same (including all those who put money on Bush and Christie in the past).

With that out of the way, I see a Rubio ad on Fox saying "send the establishment a message, vote Rubio".
The Rubio campaign is as inept as Jeb's and "Cromwell' should have at least seen that.

Morris_Dancer said:

Ms. Apocalypse, they elected a clown, and now the party's a circus

The country needs a viable alternative. Right now Cameron and Osborne can do almost whatever they like. That's not good for democracy.

Corbyn has surely got to be the worst leader of the opposition, in British political history. He's the very definition of irrelevant. But to me, the most worrying thing about Labour isn't Jeremy Corbyn. It's the delusion of many within the Labour party base. If they want to really make a difference in people's lives they have to elect an electable candidate. But they seem to love Corbyn, and look being in opposition. It was a new low to see that Tories feel that they have Michael Gove has their leader and still win 2020.

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

RodCrosby said:

As far as I can tell, extrapolating Norpoth's forecast would give EVs of:-

Trump 360
Clinton 178

which is very close to my own pre-Norpoth forecast...

That is very unlikely, right now I have Trump 221 Hillary 228 with Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Iowa as too close too call (89 EV), so I have Trump at a maximum of 310 and Hillary at a minimum of 228.

I think the Democrats losing Michigan is very unlikely.

I'm basing it on the polls, that say it's too close to call:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Michigan

And the fact that Michigan has a republican governor.
Trump's protectionist message will go well with factory workers there.

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

RodCrosby said:

As far as I can tell, extrapolating Norpoth's forecast would give EVs of:-

Trump 360
Clinton 178

which is very close to my own pre-Norpoth forecast...

One way to reach 178 is as follows:

California (55), Washington (12), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), Maryland (10), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), DC (3).

Trump wont win Wisconsin, republicans are not very popular there after Scott Walker messed up things with its economy and social issues.

Is that why Scott walker was reelected as governor?

Actually I think that the republicans chases in Wisconsin are quite good, not guaranteed but worth watching. the state has consistently voted Dem for president for some time, but only by relatively small margins. this will be the first election where the local Labour unions, have been heavily weekend after Act 10 and the right to work lore. the locale Unions are normally focused on locale elections. But there efforts to run 'get out the vote' opperations

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

I started rewatching all of The West Wing about 10 days ago. I am currently halfway through season 6... it has been a lot of binge watching

But it is still great, great television

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

Trump has taken Lynton's strategy up to a whole new level.

It's not a dead cat, it's a 400 lb gorilla he's just chucked onto the table.

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

RodCrosby said:

As far as I can tell, extrapolating Norpoth's forecast would give EVs of:-

Trump 360
Clinton 178

which is very close to my own pre-Norpoth forecast...

One way to reach 178 is as follows:

California (55), Washington (12), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), Maryland (10), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), DC (3).

Trump wont win Wisconsin, republicans are not very popular there after Scott Walker messed up things with its economy and social issues.

Is that why Scott walker was reelected as governor?

Actually I think that the republicans chases in Wisconsin are quite good, not guaranteed but worth watching. the state has consistently voted Dem for president for some time, but only by relatively small margins. this will be the first election where the local Labour unions, have been heavily weekend after Act 10 and the right to work lore. the locale Unions are normally focused on locale elections. But there efforts to run 'get out the vote' operations to help locale candidates, also grim people to the poling booths who are likely to vote Democrat for President as well.

Same thing in Michigan

Pulpstar said:

Trump has taken Lynton's strategy up to a whole new level.

It's not a dead cat, it's a 400 lb gorilla he's just chucked onto the table.

Christie weighs 400lbs ?? .... er .... yes he probably does.

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

I love 24.

For me, the West Wing is far too cliche.

Project Fear - "lets sacrifice our budget credibility to help REMAIN win"
I heard on BBC radio this evening a report that Osborne is talking about further austerity in the next budget due to economic dangers etc etc.

May be it will help REMAIN in the "cling to nurse" theme? But last year the Govt clearly did not want lots of negative anti-govt things in the media in the run up to the referendum vote.... This appears to indicate a sense of panic veering from one approach and then a 180 change to say the opposite.

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

I suggest you steer clear of the upcoming Quantico, chronicling the worst intake of FBI agents in the universe, including the arrogant, inept, corrupt, traitorous and childish, who inexplicably are still the only ones with any competence, we are expected to believe.

May I just caution PBers once again about placing too much reliance on state and national polls at this stage.

Yes we all love polls and reporting and commenting on them but basing your November betting strategy on them is a mighty risky business especially if you're into the action with the big bucks.

Yes it's Clinton v Trump for POTUS but securing he nomination is a whole different matter from the real shoot out. Many pundits wait until after Labor Day.

The_Apocalypse said:

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

I love 24.

For me, the West Wing is far too cliche.

Hopefully I'm mature enough to allow that other folks don't necessarily share my tastes and views .

I've seen very little of West Wing; what little I have is far too idealistic and rose-tinted for my jaundiced soul. I'm more of a House of Cards type.

Sounds like Warehouse 13 cast, great concept - embarrassing childish acting.

kle4 said:

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

I suggest you steer clear of the upcoming Quantico, chronicling the worst intake of FBI agents in the universe, including the arrogant, inept, corrupt, traitorous and childish, who inexplicably are still the only ones with any competence, we are expected to believe.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

And what is happening to the Labour party these days.

Highly experimental politics. If people claim they are sick of the same old shower, this is what you get (and we know plenty of Tories want to go down the same route).

Personally I think people are uninspired by our bland party automaton leaders and political classes, but it developed because that's what we wanted. Went too far, and has been reacted against, but the principle of that being what people want I think remains.

But the Labour party have always been sick of the moderate Labour left. They have always wanted some Corbyn style leftie in there for years, most probably decades. I don't think outside of twitter there is really much appetite for someone like Corbyn as PM. He makes Ed Miliband look electable. Now looking back, I can't believe I wanted Miliband as PM, and I certainly don't want Corbyn as PM. The trouble is, I don't want any Tory (with perhaps May as the exception) as PM either.

It's interesting that Blair said he doesn't get politics anymore. I think he doesn't understand that the political climate now is totally different from 1997. In 1997, there was still some good will towards politicians (well, Blair anyway) and many people felt hopeful. Now, many no longer have much hope going forward, and hate the politicial class.

There are enough laughs and great twists for me. I can forgive Aaron Sorkin his love fest.

Toby was seriously annoying.

I Hated his next venture, was it called Newsroom? all speed talking cobblers and overt Democrat with token RINO. Mega Yawn

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

I love 24.

For me, the West Wing is far too cliche.

Hopefully I'm mature enough to allow that other folks don't necessarily share my tastes and views .

I've seen very little of West Wing; what little I have is far too idealistic and rose-tinted for my jaundiced soul. I'm more of a House of Cards type.

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like it's all over for Rubio.

You'd think, but he's still only 3.9 last matched.

I wish I had more confidence in my judgement about US politics. On the face of it, there's an absolute killing to be made backing Donald Trump at current prices but there's a limit to how much I'm willing to expose myself to losses on something I'm not that confident of.

Have confidence.

Unless you think a massive black swan event the size of Trump's ego is going to happen then the Trumpster has the GOP nomination in the bag.

It's Jezza Can't be Labour Leader syndrome writ large again, just over the pond this time.

Based on your comments and @Casino_Royale's below, I've taken the plunge and placed a decent-sized bet on the tribble-owner.

It's frankly almost absurd to think that either Cruz or Rubio are now in any position to stop Trump. It's all over bar the voting.

The GOP establishment will mostly swing behind him, some through gritted teeth, but hoping that the trail of destruction that Tump will leave behind doesn't damage their prospects in all the other races in November.

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

RodCrosby said:

As far as I can tell, extrapolating Norpoth's forecast would give EVs of:-

Trump 360
Clinton 178

which is very close to my own pre-Norpoth forecast...

One way to reach 178 is as follows:

California (55), Washington (12), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), Maryland (10), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), DC (3).

Trump wont win Wisconsin, republicans are not very popular there after Scott Walker messed up things with its economy and social issues.

But Scott Walker is going to storm the Republican nomination process and sweep into the White House. I know because I read it on PB.com

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like it's all over for Rubio.

You'd think, but he's still only 3.9 last matched.

I wish I had more confidence in my judgement about US politics. On the face of it, there's an absolute killing to be made backing Donald Trump at current prices but there's a limit to how much I'm willing to expose myself to losses on something I'm not that confident of.

Jeb's ludicrous price of "not somewhere in the hundreds" after Iowa kept me out despite my rock solid convictions because surely the market was smarter and better informed than little old me.

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like it's all over for Rubio.

You'd think, but he's still only 3.9 last matched.

I wish I had more confidence in my judgement about US politics. On the face of it, there's an absolute killing to be made backing Donald Trump at current prices but there's a limit to how much I'm willing to expose myself to losses on something I'm not that confident of.

The evidence for Trump is overwhelming.

I've just backed him some more.

Hi Casino,

Not related to Trump, but before you fire off your email to Vote Leave I just wanted to tell you that I'm now seeing more signs of activity! I think they had a decent wave of people signing up since last weekend.

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

The first season of 24 is must watch groundbreaking television. All the other seasons are total garbage - some are morally repugnent unwatchable treats the audience like idiots garbage.

He's the only actor bar J to secure many other roles. I've only seen Josh in one.

He's been in allsorts as a baddie, she was in Masters of Sex and other stuff

Omnium said:

Plato_Says said:

There are enough laughs and great twists for me. I can forgive Aaron Sorkin his love fest.

Toby was seriously annoying.

I Hated his next venture, was it called Newsroom? all speed talking cobblers and overt Democrat with token RINO. Mega Yawn

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

I love 24.

For me, the West Wing is far too cliche.

Hopefully I'm mature enough to allow that other folks don't necessarily share my tastes and views .

I've seen very little of West Wing; what little I have is far too idealistic and rose-tinted for my jaundiced soul. I'm more of a House of Cards type.

Plato! I'm shocked - Toby was easily the best character in the West Wing, I may have to hibernate for a couple of weeks after all this WW talk and watch it through again now.

West Wing is awesome. I was watching it (again) earlier this evening.

24 is beyond crap

The Newsroom is exceptional

House of Cards started well, went off the boil, but hope for better things in Season 4

That is all

@mckaycoppins: Trump threatening news outlets: "We're gonna open up those libel laws folks and we're gonna sue you like you've never been sued before."

Scandal is so obviously Shonda, it's Greys Anatomy with lawyers. All fast talking and uber emphasis.

I watched for fun until S4 halfway then gave in. I gather Mrs POTUS is on the rise now.

Have to be very careful with spoilers as I'm usually a season or more ahead.

The_Apocalypse said:

Plato_Says said:

New series next week. She's even more so.

The_Apocalypse said:

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

Looking to download a box set from Sky, West Wing or 24?

24.

24 is awful. It's like the intelligence agencies if they were populated by high schoolers.

I love 24.

For me, the West Wing is far too cliche.

Hopefully I'm mature enough to allow that other folks don't necessarily share my tastes and views .

I've seen very little of West Wing; what little I have is far too idealistic and rose-tinted for my jaundiced soul. I'm more of a House of Cards type.

House of Cards is brilliant. Robyn Wright is fantastic as Claire Underwood.

I can't wait, there aren't many shows that I'm into these days. I used love Scandal, but I think even that's become a bit stupid recently. I also hated Newsroom as well. The first episode was okay, but after that....it became so 'meh'.

Alistair said:

JackW said:

May I also urge PBers to look at the US polls with a sceptical eye on the demographic details. In both 08 and 12 the internals of some of the polls were so off the mark they made the 2015 UK general election polling look spot on to three decimal points !!

One of the reasons in past POTUS why my across the pond ARSE has been so accurate is I amend some of the "interesting" US poll internals with a demographic and differential turnout filter. As another PBer of repute oft opines :

DYOR

I have been warning about American poll demographics for some time now. As far as I can tell ORC don't even appy any weighting, they just go with who they've got.

Quite.

However unwise punting by the unwary on the basis of duff polling has kept Mrs JackW well heeled for many a long day ....

chestnut said:

Osborne suggesting more cuts.

Our net EU contribution is £8.5bn. Average wages have fallen since EU expansion, the population has risen by close to 5m in the same period - and 'austerity' actually ends when?

Overseas aid is up to what now? £11.6bn.

Cameron and Osborne will run out of political capital with many who voted for them in May 2015.

Cameron and Osborne will always have sufficient political capital whist their "Get Out Of Jail Card" Jezza provides cover.

John_M said:

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

And what is happening to the Labour party these days.

Highly experimental politics. If people claim they are sick of the same old shower, this is what you get (and we know plenty of Tories want to go down the same route).

Personally I think people are uninspired by our bland party automaton leaders and political classes, but it developed because that's what we wanted. Went too far, and has been reacted against, but the principle of that being what people want I think remains.

It's interesting that Blair said he doesn't get politics anymore. I think he doesn't understand that the political climate now is totally different from 1997. In 1997, there was still some good will towards politicians (well, Blair anyway) and many people felt hopeful. Now, many no longer have much hope going forward, and hate the politicial class.

Blair was elected on a wave of enthusiasm after the fag end of an exhausted Tory administration. With Brown, he probably did more than any other to sour the electorate on politicians - though the expenses scandal didn't help.

I actually believe the biggest turning point for the electorate was Iraq. That really burst the Blair bubble. Brown's tenure only made it worse.

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