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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump dominate in the build up to “Super Tuesday” when 12 states decide
The dramatic developments over the past week in the EU referendum have somewhat sidelined what has been the most crucial week so far in the WH2016 battles for the Democratic and Republican party nominations.
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And Supper Tuesday ;-)
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.
615 Clinton vs 406 Sanders.
Who knows ?
Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/
Of course having Yorkshire last means that most candidates will already have dropped out, and one will probably have unstoppable momentum, so Yorkshire can feel good voting for the winner without having any influence at all. What's not to like?
If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.
Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.
We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.
In 2012, 70 of them got to decide between 6 representatives.
http://thehill.com/opinion/dick-morris/270513-why-rubio-cant-win
Shame Cameron doesn't have this sought of vision.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/106084327581949952
Important news elsewhere...
GaryLineker
2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
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Jamie Carragher
Carra23
Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016
Hope he is recovering from the meningitis OK..
If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
OTOH Hillary is ahead and if its close will be stitched up for her. No WTA late states for the Democrats either.
Thats my last niggling doubt over Trump.
The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy
Hillary, at 69, would be the oldest Democrat ever to contest the presidency (currently Lewis Cass, who was 66 at the 1848 election); Trump will be 70 in November but not the oldest Republican (Reagan, Dole and McCain were all older).
Between them, they'd break the record by almost nine years. The current record was set in 1984 when Reagan (73) defeated Mondale (56), who between them were about six and a half months older than Cass and Taylor in 1848.
Cromwell might want to volunteer to get back that Rubio cash in a few days.
Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?
German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...
Lothar Matthäus
LMatthaeus10
What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
But I very much doubt it will happen.
The Panacea Society believed Bedford to be the original site of the Garden of Eden https://t.co/NJEi6aeYob last member died in 2012
I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.
He's back in Rolling Stone with a great article about the Trump phenomenon, its long but it explains his success and likely progress better than anything else I've read and its got some really funny lines: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224
A sample:
"Trump's speeches are never scripted, never exactly the same twice. Instead he just riffs and feels his way through crowds. He's no orator – as anyone who's read his books knows, he's not really into words, especially long ones – but he has an undeniable talent for commanding a room."
"Adam and Eve Winning Here"
http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/fluechtlingskrise-in-deutschland/wahlkampf-diese-umfrage-macht-alle-nervoes-44652150.bild.html
which shows the AfD in 4th place on 10%. What the writer has apparently done is take a regional poll in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the AfD inches ahead of the SPD (partly because the ex-Communist Left Party is the main left-wing party in Sachsen-Anhalt and ahead of the AfD), and call it a "national poll".
Here are all the national polls:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The latest one shows a CDU bounce and an AfD drop, though I think that's just marginal variation. The basic picture is that there has been a 5-point shift from CDU to AfD, putting the AfD on 10%ish; this happened several months ago and the position has been stable ever since. It's significant, but calling the AfD the "most popular opposition party" is just dumb.
http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns
http://www.skinner.nildram.co.uk/pix/minge.jpg
Sorry to hear about your leg.
http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/fluechtlingskrise-in-deutschland/wahlkampf-diese-umfrage-macht-alle-nervoes-44652150.bild.html
which shows the AfD in 4th place on 10%. What the writer has apparently done is take a regional poll in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the AfD inches ahead of the SPD (partly because the ex-Communist Left Party is the main left-wing party in Sachsen-Anhalt and ahead of the AfD), and call it a "national poll".
Here are all the national polls:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The latest one shows a CDU bounce and an AfD drop, though I think that's just marginal variation. The basic picture is that there has been a 5-point shift from CDU to AfD, putting the AfD on 10%ish; this happened several months ago and the position has been stable ever since. It's significant, but calling the AfD the "most popular opposition party" is just dumb.
Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?
"While Cameron was trying (and failing) to secure a decent deal with the EU...."
https://t.co/jGl7fIfZph
As for the Kop winning it, anyone who has been going to football regularly since the eighties will tell you exactly what they think of those 'wonderful' Liverpool supporters.
Indy People
@TheIndyPeople
Donald Trump claimed he could have had sex with Princess Diana months after her death http://ind.pn/1QKgKIE pic.twitter.com/aodhYhF10X
Your posts increasingly resemble those of IOS crowing about his election winning 'ground game'.
In the Championship.
It is all so strange to me - caucuses, open primaries, closed primaries, semi-closed primaries - all democratic in some way and all potentially pointless if things end in a brokered convention. Americans must hate their extended political selection system - it is dragged out over month after month - and then they must endure the 12 weeks of the full campaign (whilst also being bombarded with house, senate, governor, school board and all the other local races/votes. All feels like too much democracy. Certainly very few people can really have the time to fully examine the issues and the candidates and reach a considered decision for every election and issue vote.
"Like the actual circus, this is a roving business. Cash flows to campaigns from people and donors; campaigns buy ads; ads pay for journalists; journalists assess candidates. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the ever-growing press corps tends in most years to like – or at least deem "most serious" – the candidates who buy the most ads. Nine out of 10 times in America, the candidate who raises the most money wins. And those candidates then owe the most favors.
"Meaning that for the pleasure of being able to watch insincere campaign coverage and see manipulative political ads on TV for free, we end up having to pay inflated Medicare drug prices, fund bank bailouts with our taxes, let billionaires pay 17 percent tax rates, and suffer a thousand other indignities. Trump is right: Because Jeb Bush can't afford to make his own commercials, he would go into the White House in the pocket of a drug manufacturer. It really is that stupid."
...
"Trump found the flaw in the American Death Star. It doesn't know how to turn the cameras off, even when it's filming its own demise."
And I sincerely hope that the word Backpfeifengesicht will enter the PB lexicon.
Just clicked who Carswell reminds me of in the photo in that article, with his slightly weird half-face smile.
It's Popeye.
http://7-themes.com/data_images/out/40/6906405-popeye-wallpaper-hd.jpg
Blairites thinks eurosceptics are mad. Shock.
This record hasn't changed for twenty years.
Not saying that he is predictable, but even you don't feel the need to say who wrote it anymore
Nicking a living
"The UK's ability to make necessary reforms to financial regulation risks being constrained by the European regulatory process, which is developing rapidly as Eurozone countries move towards banking union. Some new financial regulation across the EU may be desirable as a support for the Single Market. However, there are at least two dangers for the UK. The first is that the prescriptive and box-ticking tendency of EU rules designed for 27 members will impede the move towards the more judgement-based approach being introduced in the UK in response to past regulatory failures. The second is that some EU regulations may limit the UK's regulatory scope for unilateral action. This could mean moving at the speed of the slowest ship in the convoy. This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford."
This record hasn't changed for twenty years.
Madness is frequently diagnosed in others by people who are none too grounded in reality themselves. Mentioning no pb members.
But not a risk that the Remain side generally wish to acknowledge exists. Or if they do, they quickly gloss over it and focus on silly scare stories instead.
And it goes without saying the PM's 'deal' does virtually nothing to reduce this risk
Another article which avoids trying to make a positive case for remain.
What can they say?
"The continent is being invaded by swarms of people from a culture completely at odds with our own, encouraged by the head of the EU. A decent sized minority of those people are now attacking women, particularly white, western women, everywhere there is more than a handful of them..
In a decade they will have the same passport and rights in this country as you or I
And there will be millions more coming this year, so we are rushing the vote before the shit really hits the fan"
It's a hard sell trying to spin the postives on that one
So, if we're going to mitigate the risk, it's got to be the Full Monty option, as that Gerard Lyons article you posted yesterday argued. But that means taking on the risk of not having passporting of financial services, and the possible loss of euro clearing.
When it comes to glossing over risks, the Leave side takes the biscuit.
Liz Truss is pretty capable but struggled last night. It's difficult when leave can use emotive words like democracy, freedom and self determination.