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SystemSystem Posts: 12,679
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump dominate in the build up to “Super Tuesday” when 12 states decide

The dramatic developments over the past week in the EU referendum have somewhat sidelined what has been the most crucial week so far in the WH2016 battles for the Democratic and Republican party nominations.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Can't wait.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited February 2016
    I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2016
    Second! Like Cruz

    And Supper Tuesday ;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    edited February 2016
    I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.

    We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Which states are on Tuesday?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Texas might be interesting for punting in light of reports that Rubio and Cruz are campaigning heavily there. Can Rubio snatch Cruz's home state and will the two of them allow Trump through the middle?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Current Democrat Super Tuesday Forecast:

    615 Clinton vs 406 Sanders.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    williamglenn said:

    I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?

    God Bless the Great state of Texas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Sanders might win American Samoa.

    Who knows ?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FPT:

    Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/
    Imagine if Nigel Farage declared that police should be ready to shoot migrants trying to make it from Calais to Britain; saying: ‘I don’t want to do this, but the use of armed force is there as a last resort.’ And imagine that in spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Ukip were to overtake the Labour party in a national poll to become the most popular opposition party. This, in effect, is what is happening in Germany.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Pulpstar said:

    Sanders might win American Samoa.

    Who knows ?

    Wales Rugby fans want to know who Western Samoa will back.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    I'm told that there's likely to be a new London Mayoralty poll in next few days from Opinium - the pollster that came closest last time.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.

    We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.

    Love it! You'd need to give a county 'first in the nation' status - I nominate Rutland, where any ambitious politician will shake hands with every voter, child and pet at least 3 times before polling day, seeking all-important endorsements from the chair of the WI.

    Of course having Yorkshire last means that most candidates will already have dropped out, and one will probably have unstoppable momentum, so Yorkshire can feel good voting for the winner without having any influence at all. What's not to like?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    williamglenn said:

    I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?

    If Trump gets a clean sweep, expect to see Rubio's price for the nomination drop below evens.

    If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,363
    "Supper Tuesday" - is this a regular event attended by the Camerons and the Brookess?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    tpfkar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.

    We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.

    Love it! You'd need to give a county 'first in the nation' status - I nominate Rutland, where any ambitious politician will shake hands with every voter, child and pet at least 3 times before polling day, seeking all-important endorsements from the chair of the WI.

    Of course having Yorkshire last means that most candidates will already have dropped out, and one will probably have unstoppable momentum, so Yorkshire can feel good voting for the winner without having any influence at all. What's not to like?
    Would that make Joss Hanbury president of the UK?
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.

    We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.

    Since Yorkshire is actually made up of three Ridings, I take it South Yorkshire would comprise those Tykes who had removed to the Great Wen. The intelligent ones, that is to say, or, at least - the bankers.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:
    SandyRentool said:

    "Supper Tuesday" - is this a regular event attended by the Camerons and the Brookess?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,363
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.

    We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.

    The Yorkshire primaries could be held on "Wazzock Wednesday".
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    I am seeing a lot of people citing polls saying that the Democrats can only win in November with Sanders - as Clinton is beaten by all of the possible Republican choices.

    Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.

    We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.

    We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.

    The obligatory food eating photo ops would have kept Miliband away from the Labour leadership. That's the kind of vetting we need.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    American Samoa doesn't have the right to vote in the US elections. But per head they must be the most powerful electors in the entire republican game:

    In 2012, 70 of them got to decide between 6 representatives.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AlastairMeeks said:

    williamglenn said:

    I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?

    If Trump gets a clean sweep, expect to see Rubio's price for the nomination drop below evens.

    If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.
    Pah! that shows a lack of vision. A Trump clean sweep clearly means Jeb Bush comes down to 7s
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AlastairMeeks said:

    williamglenn said:

    I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?

    If Trump gets a clean sweep, expect to see Rubio's price for the nomination drop below evens.

    If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.
    So either Rubio's price is being manipulated or there really is a black swan.

  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    williamglenn said:

    I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?

    Cruz supporters go to Trump. No KO blow to Trump in the debate, it is all over.
    http://thehill.com/opinion/dick-morris/270513-why-rubio-cant-win

    Shame Cameron doesn't have this sought of vision.
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/106084327581949952
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sorry for lowering the tone, but Trump appears to have been Tangoed in that photo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    edited February 2016
    oxfordsimon said:

    I am seeing a lot of people citing polls saying that the Democrats can only win in November with Sanders - as Clinton is beaten by all of the possible Republican choices.

    Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.

    We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.

    That is wrong, Clinton leads Trump by 2% and is tied with Crux in the RCP poll average even if Sanders does better than her although Rubio beats her
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    HYUFD said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    I am seeing a lot of people citing polls saying that the Democrats can only win in November with Sanders - as Clinton is beaten by all of the possible Republican choices.

    Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.

    We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.

    That is wrong, Clinton leads Trump by 2% and is tied with Crux in the RCP poll average even if Sanders does better than her although Rubio beats her
    Too early to tell in all honesty on GOP vs DEM. My initial 270 to win map had Dems just over the line on 271.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.

    We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.

    Since Yorkshire is actually made up of three Ridings, I take it South Yorkshire would comprise those Tykes who had removed to the Great Wen. The intelligent ones, that is to say, or, at least - the bankers.

    If you're going to be traditional about it, Yorkshire is comprised of the three Ridings and York itself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    I am seeing a lot of people citing polls saying that the Democrats can only win in November with Sanders - as Clinton is beaten by all of the possible Republican choices.

    Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.

    We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.

    That is wrong, Clinton leads Trump by 2% and is tied with Crux in the RCP poll average even if Sanders does better than her although Rubio beats her
    Too early to tell in all honesty on GOP vs DEM. My initial 270 to win map had Dems just over the line on 271.
    It will be close but that is the situation now
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Supper Tuesday? Probably - all over by bedtime.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited February 2016
    Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.

    Important news elsewhere...

    GaryLineker
    2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
    12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Share

    Jamie Carragher
    Carra23
    Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
    12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Anyone seen @JosiasJessop about btw :/
    Hope he is recovering from the meningitis OK..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Texas might be interesting for punting in light of reports that Rubio and Cruz are campaigning heavily there. Can Rubio snatch Cruz's home state and will the two of them allow Trump through the middle?

    Cruz leads in Texas in almost every poll, Rubio is third
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two nominees, would they be in aggregate the oldest two main party nominees ever to fight the election? It seems so.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    At what point does Donald Trump's price crash? He still seems absurdly long given the results to date and the polling.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    AlastairMeeks said:

    If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two nominees, would they be in aggregate the oldest two main party nominees ever to fight the election? It seems so.

    Until Bill Cash takes on Corbyn in the 2020 GE..... or in his dreams David Davis.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.

    Important news elsewhere...

    GaryLineker
    2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
    12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Share

    Jamie Carragher
    Carra23
    Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
    12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016

    Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.

    If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,195
    I've been Gove'd.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    AlastairMeeks said:

    At what point does Donald Trump's price crash? He still seems absurdly long given the results to date and the polling.

    Bit of a worry over a RNC stitch up if he is perhaps 50 delegates short ?

    OTOH Hillary is ahead and if its close will be stitched up for her. No WTA late states for the Democrats either.

    Thats my last niggling doubt over Trump.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Steve Hawkes
    The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    AlastairMeeks said:

    If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two nominees, would they be in aggregate the oldest two main party nominees ever to fight the election? It seems so.

    Yes.

    Hillary, at 69, would be the oldest Democrat ever to contest the presidency (currently Lewis Cass, who was 66 at the 1848 election); Trump will be 70 in November but not the oldest Republican (Reagan, Dole and McCain were all older).

    Between them, they'd break the record by almost nine years. The current record was set in 1984 when Reagan (73) defeated Mondale (56), who between them were about six and a half months older than Cass and Taylor in 1848.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35662214/meet-the-student-who-caught-typhoid-for-3000

    Cromwell might want to volunteer to get back that Rubio cash in a few days.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AlastairMeeks said:

    At what point does Donald Trump's price crash? He still seems absurdly long given the results to date and the polling.

    I think super Tuesday is it for the Republican nom betting. Barring unlikely outcomes.
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.

    We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.

    I think your choice of the first primary is inspired, and no rational person could disagree.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited February 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    Steve Hawkes
    The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy

    Is she getting fashion advice from TSE?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Tokyo Sexwale withdraws from POFIFA
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited February 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.

    Important news elsewhere...

    GaryLineker
    2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
    12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Share

    Jamie Carragher
    Carra23
    Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
    12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016

    Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.

    If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
    Just point this out - should smooth things down...

    Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?

    German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...

    Lothar Matthäus
    LMatthaeus10
    What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
    12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    At what point does Donald Trump's price crash? He still seems absurdly long given the results to date and the polling.

    Bit of a worry over a RNC stitch up if he is perhaps 50 delegates short ?

    OTOH Hillary is ahead and if its close will be stitched up for her. No WTA late states for the Democrats either.

    Thats my last niggling doubt over Trump.
    If there is a stitch-up, it will be justified. Trump is comfortably on course to win an overwhelming majority of the delegates so the only way it could end in a brokered convention is if Trump does something so monumentally stupid that the electorate recoils in a way it hasn't yet. In that situation, it'd be fair enough for the superdelegates to override the views of voters who couldn't take the event in question into account.

    But I very much doubt it will happen.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ed West
    The Panacea Society believed Bedford to be the original site of the Garden of Eden https://t.co/NJEi6aeYob last member died in 2012
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Plato_Says said:

    Steve Hawkes
    The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy

    @HappyBritScot: .@steve_hawkes From another angle: Joanna Cherry praying for it to end soon and Eck...well...admiring? https://t.co/Zbw2BRHKE2
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.

    Important news elsewhere...

    GaryLineker
    2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
    12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Share

    Jamie Carragher
    Carra23
    Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
    12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016

    Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.

    If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
    Just point this out - should smooth things down...

    Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?

    German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...

    Lothar Matthäus
    LMatthaeus10
    What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
    12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Eight European Cups between us, Spurs have how many, playing the side Klopp left Liverpool for.

    I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,373
    I have said on here before that Matt Taibbi's articles on the crash were required reading for anyone who wanted to understand the biggest theft in history.

    He's back in Rolling Stone with a great article about the Trump phenomenon, its long but it explains his success and likely progress better than anything else I've read and its got some really funny lines: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224

    A sample:

    "Trump's speeches are never scripted, never exactly the same twice. Instead he just riffs and feels his way through crowds. He's no orator – as anyone who's read his books knows, he's not really into words, especially long ones – but he has an undeniable talent for commanding a room."


  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato_Says said:

    Ed West
    The Panacea Society believed Bedford to be the original site of the Garden of Eden https://t.co/NJEi6aeYob last member died in 2012

    OGH's home ....

    "Adam and Eve Winning Here"
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    edited February 2016
    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/

    Imagine if Nigel Farage declared that police should be ready to shoot migrants trying to make it from Calais to Britain; saying: ‘I don’t want to do this, but the use of armed force is there as a last resort.’ And imagine that in spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Ukip were to overtake the Labour party in a national poll to become the most popular opposition party. This, in effect, is what is happening in Germany.
    That is such bollocks that it disgraces the Spectator - don't they bother to check their articles at all? The Bild survey that they seem to be referring to is this:

    http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/fluechtlingskrise-in-deutschland/wahlkampf-diese-umfrage-macht-alle-nervoes-44652150.bild.html

    which shows the AfD in 4th place on 10%. What the writer has apparently done is take a regional poll in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the AfD inches ahead of the SPD (partly because the ex-Communist Left Party is the main left-wing party in Sachsen-Anhalt and ahead of the AfD), and call it a "national poll".

    Here are all the national polls:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The latest one shows a CDU bounce and an AfD drop, though I think that's just marginal variation. The basic picture is that there has been a 5-point shift from CDU to AfD, putting the AfD on 10%ish; this happened several months ago and the position has been stable ever since. It's significant, but calling the AfD the "most popular opposition party" is just dumb.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Pulpstar said:

    Tokyo Sexwale withdraws from POFIFA

    He still wins the best name EVER award!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Steve Hawkes
    The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy

    @HappyBritScot: .@steve_hawkes From another angle: Joanna Cherry praying for it to end soon and Eck...well...admiring? https://t.co/Zbw2BRHKE2
    Is she over or under 50% of Eck's wife's age ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've been Gove'd.

    Same here. Gove is putting a lot of effort into this. I've made my first donation to Vote Leave.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It shouldn't really need pointing out, but if Leave.EU and Grassroots Out are UKIP front organisations (to the point that UKIP members are on pain of expulsion if they work with another Leave organisation), they are much less likely to be chosen as the official Leave campaign than a genuinely cross-party organisation:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    oxfordsimon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tokyo Sexwale withdraws from POFIFA

    He still wins the best name EVER award!
    No he doesn't. This lady wins that award.

    http://www.skinner.nildram.co.uk/pix/minge.jpg
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It shouldn't really need pointing out, but if Leave.EU and Grassroots Out are UKIP front organisations (to the point that UKIP members are on pain of expulsion if they work with another Leave organisation), they are much less likely to be chosen as the official Leave campaign than a genuinely cross-party organisation:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns

    From what I've read about Arron Banks and Nigel Farage, they aren't the sharpest tools in the shed (just tools) and secret plants for Remain
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    edited February 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It shouldn't really need pointing out, but if Leave.EU and Grassroots Out are UKIP front organisations (to the point that UKIP members are on pain of expulsion if they work with another Leave organisation), they are much less likely to be chosen as the official Leave campaign than a genuinely cross-party organisation:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns

    From what I've read about Arron Banks and Nigel Farage, they aren't the sharpest tools in the shed (just tools) and secret plants for Remain
    The way I see it, Vote Leave have the heavy hitters onside (Johnson, Gove, Howard, Lawson, Owen, Carswell etc.) as well as support from some Labour MPs, so it's a very easy choice for me to campaign for Vote Leave.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    edited February 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.

    Important news elsewhere...

    GaryLineker
    2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
    12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Share

    Jamie Carragher
    Carra23
    Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
    12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016

    Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.

    If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
    Just point this out - should smooth things down...

    Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?

    German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...

    Lothar Matthäus
    LMatthaeus10
    What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
    12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Eight European Cups between us, Spurs have how many, playing the side Klopp left Liverpool for.

    I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.
    That's all ancient history though. How many footballers from any of those winning are still playing?

    Sorry to hear about your leg.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    NickPalmer said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/

    Imagine if Nigel Farage declared that police should be ready to shoot migrants trying to make it from Calais to Britain; saying: ‘I don’t want to do this, but the use of armed force is there as a last resort.’ And imagine that in spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Ukip were to overtake the Labour party in a national poll to become the most popular opposition party. This, in effect, is what is happening in Germany.
    That is such bollocks that it disgraces the Spectator - don't they bother to check their articles at all? The Bild survey that they seem to be referring to is this:

    http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/fluechtlingskrise-in-deutschland/wahlkampf-diese-umfrage-macht-alle-nervoes-44652150.bild.html

    which shows the AfD in 4th place on 10%. What the writer has apparently done is take a regional poll in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the AfD inches ahead of the SPD (partly because the ex-Communist Left Party is the main left-wing party in Sachsen-Anhalt and ahead of the AfD), and call it a "national poll".

    Here are all the national polls:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The latest one shows a CDU bounce and an AfD drop, though I think that's just marginal variation. The basic picture is that there has been a 5-point shift from CDU to AfD, putting the AfD on 10%ish; this happened several months ago and the position has been stable ever since. It's significant, but calling the AfD the "most popular opposition party" is just dumb.

    Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It shouldn't really need pointing out, but if Leave.EU and Grassroots Out are UKIP front organisations (to the point that UKIP members are on pain of expulsion if they work with another Leave organisation), they are much less likely to be chosen as the official Leave campaign than a genuinely cross-party organisation:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns

    You'd hope so. Though one suspects the Electoral Commission themselves would probably rather we stayed in the EU, both ideologically and from a make-work perspective.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    AlastairMeeks said:

    williamglenn said:

    I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?

    If Trump gets a clean sweep, expect to see Rubio's price for the nomination drop below evens.

    If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.
    Well, one could hardly imagine a better start for Rubio than having another candidate win 15 of the first 16 states.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,863
    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/

    Imagine if Nigel Farage declared that police should be ready to shoot migrants trying to make it from Calais to Britain; saying: ‘I don’t want to do this, but the use of armed force is there as a last resort.’ And imagine that in spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Ukip were to overtake the Labour party in a national poll to become the most popular opposition party. This, in effect, is what is happening in Germany.
    This is just an accepted throw-away line in that article:

    "While Cameron was trying (and failing) to secure a decent deal with the EU...."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.

    Important news elsewhere...

    GaryLineker
    2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
    12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Share

    Jamie Carragher
    Carra23
    Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
    12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016

    Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.

    If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
    Just point this out - should smooth things down...

    Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?

    German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...

    Lothar Matthäus
    LMatthaeus10
    What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
    12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Eight European Cups between us, Spurs have how many, playing the side Klopp left Liverpool for.

    I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.
    That's all ancient history though. How many footballers from any of those winning are still playing?

    Sorry to hear about your leg.
    The Kop helped us win the 5th one. And that goal against Chelsea.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    edited February 2016
    I expect hope Ted Cruz points out (Fairly) that he has won "The great states of Texas and Iowa", whilst "Marco isn't even on the scoreboard" and that it is "Time for Marco to step aside" on wednesday morning.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Maomentum_: "Socialist Party members opposed a motion calling simply for a Labour government"

    https://t.co/jGl7fIfZph
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    A crib for Super Tuesday http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/02/super_tuesday_2016_when_is_it.html
    Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia will hold primaries for both parties. Alaska will hold its Republican caucus while American Samoa will caucus for Democrats. Colorado will caucus for both parties though only the Democrats are choosing a candidate. Republicans in Colorado have opted to select delegates only and then let those delegates choose which candidate to support at the national convention.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Scott_P said:

    @Maomentum_: "Socialist Party members opposed a motion calling simply for a Labour government"

    https://t.co/jGl7fIfZph

    That is one of the most deluded articles I have read in a long time - if they weren't so earnestly sincere, you might think it was pastiche. But it is real. There are people who actually think like that. Amazing!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,863
    Plato_Says said:

    Steve Hawkes
    The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy

    But the Moggster is there. Watching. Does he ever sleep?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    edited February 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Steve Hawkes
    The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy

    But the Moggster is there. Watching. Does he ever sleep?
    5 young kids, probably not!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.

    Important news elsewhere...

    GaryLineker
    2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
    12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Share

    Jamie Carragher
    Carra23
    Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
    12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016

    Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.

    If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
    Just point this out - should smooth things down...

    Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?

    German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...

    Lothar Matthäus
    LMatthaeus10
    What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
    12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
    Eight European Cups between us, Spurs have how many, playing the side Klopp left Liverpool for.

    I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.
    Forest and Villa have won it three times between them, would hardly consider that a big game now though would you?

    As for the Kop winning it, anyone who has been going to football regularly since the eighties will tell you exactly what they think of those 'wonderful' Liverpool supporters.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Trump rising into the 40s in latest national polls.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    necro....

    Indy People
    @TheIndyPeople
    Donald Trump claimed he could have had sex with Princess Diana months after her death http://ind.pn/1QKgKIE pic.twitter.com/aodhYhF10X
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Scott_P said:

    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html

    Your posts increasingly resemble those of IOS crowing about his election winning 'ground game'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,863
    nigel4england said:


    Forest and Villa have won it three times between them, would hardly consider that a big game now though would you?

    Be one of the better games next season.

    In the Championship.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Plato_Says said:

    A crib for Super Tuesday http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/02/super_tuesday_2016_when_is_it.html

    Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia will hold primaries for both parties. Alaska will hold its Republican caucus while American Samoa will caucus for Democrats. Colorado will caucus for both parties though only the Democrats are choosing a candidate. Republicans in Colorado have opted to select delegates only and then let those delegates choose which candidate to support at the national convention.
    Colorado has 37 delegates - perhaps they will end up deciding the result if they end up in a tight convention race.

    It is all so strange to me - caucuses, open primaries, closed primaries, semi-closed primaries - all democratic in some way and all potentially pointless if things end in a brokered convention. Americans must hate their extended political selection system - it is dragged out over month after month - and then they must endure the 12 weeks of the full campaign (whilst also being bombarded with house, senate, governor, school board and all the other local races/votes. All feels like too much democracy. Certainly very few people can really have the time to fully examine the issues and the candidates and reach a considered decision for every election and issue vote.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,195
    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I've been Gove'd.

    Same here. Gove is putting a lot of effort into this. I've made my first donation to Vote Leave.
    Got paid today. I'll be making mine later.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    DavidL said:

    I have said on here before that Matt Taibbi's articles on the crash were required reading for anyone who wanted to understand the biggest theft in history.

    He's back in Rolling Stone with a great article about the Trump phenomenon, its long but it explains his success and likely progress better than anything else I've read and its got some really funny lines: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224

    That's a great article.

    "Like the actual circus, this is a roving business. Cash flows to campaigns from people and donors; campaigns buy ads; ads pay for journalists; journalists assess candidates. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the ever-growing press corps tends in most years to like – or at least deem "most serious" – the candidates who buy the most ads. Nine out of 10 times in America, the candidate who raises the most money wins. And those candidates then owe the most favors.

    "Meaning that for the pleasure of being able to watch insincere campaign coverage and see manipulative political ads on TV for free, we end up having to pay inflated Medicare drug prices, fund bank bailouts with our taxes, let billionaires pay 17 percent tax rates, and suffer a thousand other indignities. Trump is right: Because Jeb Bush can't afford to make his own commercials, he would go into the White House in the pocket of a drug manufacturer. It really is that stupid."

    ...

    "Trump found the flaw in the American Death Star. It doesn't know how to turn the cameras off, even when it's filming its own demise."
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2016
    DavidL said:

    I have said on here before that Matt Taibbi's articles on the crash were required reading for anyone who wanted to understand the biggest theft in history.

    He's back in Rolling Stone with a great article about the Trump phenomenon, its long but it explains his success and likely progress better than anything else I've read and its got some really funny lines: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224

    Yes, great article.

    And I sincerely hope that the word Backpfeifengesicht will enter the PB lexicon.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,863
    Scott_P said:

    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html

    Just clicked who Carswell reminds me of in the photo in that article, with his slightly weird half-face smile.

    It's Popeye.

    http://7-themes.com/data_images/out/40/6906405-popeye-wallpaper-hd.jpg
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    edited February 2016
    david_herdson said:



    Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?

    The SPD, with around 24% of the vote, compared with the Left, Greens and AfD, all on about 10%, and the CDU on about 35%. Nobody is very popular!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,195
    Scott_P said:

    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html

    Blairites thinks eurosceptics are mad. Shock.

    This record hasn't changed for twenty years.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    edited February 2016
    Scott_P said:

    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html

    Not saying that he is predictable, but even you don't feel the need to say who wrote it anymore

    Nicking a living
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Posted without comment, this from the report of the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards (2013):-

    "The UK's ability to make necessary reforms to financial regulation risks being constrained by the European regulatory process, which is developing rapidly as Eurozone countries move towards banking union. Some new financial regulation across the EU may be desirable as a support for the Single Market. However, there are at least two dangers for the UK. The first is that the prescriptive and box-ticking tendency of EU rules designed for 27 members will impede the move towards the more judgement-based approach being introduced in the UK in response to past regulatory failures. The second is that some EU regulations may limit the UK's regulatory scope for unilateral action. This could mean moving at the speed of the slowest ship in the convoy. This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford."
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump rising into the 40s in latest national polls.

    What? Where? and When conducted?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_P said:

    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html
    Blairites thinks eurosceptics are mad. Shock.

    This record hasn't changed for twenty years.

    Madness is frequently diagnosed in others by people who are none too grounded in reality themselves. Mentioning no pb members.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford'

    But not a risk that the Remain side generally wish to acknowledge exists. Or if they do, they quickly gloss over it and focus on silly scare stories instead.

    And it goes without saying the PM's 'deal' does virtually nothing to reduce this risk
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html

    Another article which avoids trying to make a positive case for remain.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    NickPalmer said:

    david_herdson said:



    Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?

    The SPD, with around 24% of the vote, compared with the Left, Greens and AfD, all on about 10%, and the CDU on about 35%. Nobody is very popular!
    But the SPD is in government.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html
    Another article which avoids trying to make a positive case for remain.



    What can they say?

    "The continent is being invaded by swarms of people from a culture completely at odds with our own, encouraged by the head of the EU. A decent sized minority of those people are now attacking women, particularly white, western women, everywhere there is more than a handful of them..

    In a decade they will have the same passport and rights in this country as you or I

    And there will be millions more coming this year, so we are rushing the vote before the shit really hits the fan"

    It's a hard sell trying to spin the postives on that one
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump rising into the 40s in latest national polls.

    What? Where? and When conducted?
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2016
    runnymede said:

    'This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford'

    But not a risk that the Remain side generally wish to acknowledge exists. Or if they do, they quickly gloss over it and focus on silly scare stories instead.

    And it goes without saying the PM's 'deal' does virtually nothing to reduce this risk

    It's certainly a risk which sensible people acknowledge exists, although Cameron's deal helps a bit. That isn't quite the issue, though, is it? The issue is, starting from where we are now (unfortunately, without the veto on financial regulation which Brown threw away for nothing in return), what can be done about it? Jumping into the EEA, where we'd have no vote at all and no institutional protection at all, cannot be said to mitigate that risk.

    So, if we're going to mitigate the risk, it's got to be the Full Monty option, as that Gerard Lyons article you posted yesterday argued. But that means taking on the risk of not having passporting of financial services, and the possible loss of euro clearing.

    When it comes to glossing over risks, the Leave side takes the biscuit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    NickPalmer said:

    david_herdson said:



    Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?

    The SPD, with around 24% of the vote, compared with the Left, Greens and AfD, all on about 10%, and the CDU on about 35%. Nobody is very popular!
    SPD are in government not opposition.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.

    Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.

    But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html
    Another article which avoids trying to make a positive case for remain.



    Liz Truss is pretty capable but struggled last night. It's difficult when leave can use emotive words like democracy, freedom and self determination.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    runnymede said:

    'This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford'

    But not a risk that the Remain side generally wish to acknowledge exists. Or if they do, they quickly gloss over it and focus on silly scare stories instead.

    And it goes without saying the PM's 'deal' does virtually nothing to reduce this risk

    It's certainly a risk which sensible people acknowledge exists, although Cameron's deal helps a bit. That isn't quite the issue, though, is it? The issue is, starting from where we are now (unfortunately, without the veto on financial regulation which Brown threw away for nothing in return), what can be done about it? Jumping into the EEA, where we'd have no vote at all and no institutional protection at all, cannot be said to mitigate that risk.

    So, if we're going to mitigate the risk, it's got to be the Full Monty option, as that Gerard Lyons article you posted yesterday argued. But that means taking on the risk of not having passporting of financial services, and the possible loss of euro clearing.

    When it comes to glossing over risks, the Leave side takes the biscuit.
    I can't think how our innovative financial services sector will cope with a changing environment- said nobody ever.


This discussion has been closed.

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