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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump dominate in the build up to “Super Tuesday” when 12 states decide
The dramatic developments over the past week in the EU referendum have somewhat sidelined what has been the most crucial week so far in the WH2016 battles for the Democratic and Republican party nominations.
Comments
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Can't wait.0
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I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?0
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Second! Like Cruz
And Supper Tuesday ;-)0 -
I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.0 -
Which states are on Tuesday?0
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Texas might be interesting for punting in light of reports that Rubio and Cruz are campaigning heavily there. Can Rubio snatch Cruz's home state and will the two of them allow Trump through the middle?0
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Current Democrat Super Tuesday Forecast:
615 Clinton vs 406 Sanders.0 -
God Bless the Great state of Texas.williamglenn said:I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?
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Sanders might win American Samoa.
Who knows ?0 -
FPT:
Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/Imagine if Nigel Farage declared that police should be ready to shoot migrants trying to make it from Calais to Britain; saying: ‘I don’t want to do this, but the use of armed force is there as a last resort.’ And imagine that in spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Ukip were to overtake the Labour party in a national poll to become the most popular opposition party. This, in effect, is what is happening in Germany.
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Wales Rugby fans want to know who Western Samoa will back.Pulpstar said:Sanders might win American Samoa.
Who knows ?0 -
I'm told that there's likely to be a new London Mayoralty poll in next few days from Opinium - the pollster that came closest last time.0
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Love it! You'd need to give a county 'first in the nation' status - I nominate Rutland, where any ambitious politician will shake hands with every voter, child and pet at least 3 times before polling day, seeking all-important endorsements from the chair of the WI.TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.
Of course having Yorkshire last means that most candidates will already have dropped out, and one will probably have unstoppable momentum, so Yorkshire can feel good voting for the winner without having any influence at all. What's not to like?0 -
If Trump gets a clean sweep, expect to see Rubio's price for the nomination drop below evens.williamglenn said:I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?
If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.0 -
"Supper Tuesday" - is this a regular event attended by the Camerons and the Brookess?0
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Would that make Joss Hanbury president of the UK?tpfkar said:
Love it! You'd need to give a county 'first in the nation' status - I nominate Rutland, where any ambitious politician will shake hands with every voter, child and pet at least 3 times before polling day, seeking all-important endorsements from the chair of the WI.TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.
Of course having Yorkshire last means that most candidates will already have dropped out, and one will probably have unstoppable momentum, so Yorkshire can feel good voting for the winner without having any influence at all. What's not to like?0 -
Since Yorkshire is actually made up of three Ridings, I take it South Yorkshire would comprise those Tykes who had removed to the Great Wen. The intelligent ones, that is to say, or, at least - the bankers.TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.
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SandyRentool said:"Supper Tuesday" - is this a regular event attended by the Camerons and the Brookess?
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The Yorkshire primaries could be held on "Wazzock Wednesday".TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.0 -
I am seeing a lot of people citing polls saying that the Democrats can only win in November with Sanders - as Clinton is beaten by all of the possible Republican choices.
Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.
We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.0 -
The obligatory food eating photo ops would have kept Miliband away from the Labour leadership. That's the kind of vetting we need.TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.0 -
American Samoa doesn't have the right to vote in the US elections. But per head they must be the most powerful electors in the entire republican game:
In 2012, 70 of them got to decide between 6 representatives.0 -
Pah! that shows a lack of vision. A Trump clean sweep clearly means Jeb Bush comes down to 7sAlastairMeeks said:
If Trump gets a clean sweep, expect to see Rubio's price for the nomination drop below evens.williamglenn said:I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?
If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.0 -
So either Rubio's price is being manipulated or there really is a black swan.AlastairMeeks said:
If Trump gets a clean sweep, expect to see Rubio's price for the nomination drop below evens.williamglenn said:I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?
If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.
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Cruz supporters go to Trump. No KO blow to Trump in the debate, it is all over.williamglenn said:I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?
http://thehill.com/opinion/dick-morris/270513-why-rubio-cant-win
Shame Cameron doesn't have this sought of vision.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060843275819499520 -
Sorry for lowering the tone, but Trump appears to have been Tangoed in that photo.0
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That is wrong, Clinton leads Trump by 2% and is tied with Crux in the RCP poll average even if Sanders does better than her although Rubio beats heroxfordsimon said:I am seeing a lot of people citing polls saying that the Democrats can only win in November with Sanders - as Clinton is beaten by all of the possible Republican choices.
Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.
We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.0 -
Too early to tell in all honesty on GOP vs DEM. My initial 270 to win map had Dems just over the line on 271.HYUFD said:
That is wrong, Clinton leads Trump by 2% and is tied with Crux in the RCP poll average even if Sanders does better than her although Rubio beats heroxfordsimon said:I am seeing a lot of people citing polls saying that the Democrats can only win in November with Sanders - as Clinton is beaten by all of the possible Republican choices.
Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.
We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.0 -
If you're going to be traditional about it, Yorkshire is comprised of the three Ridings and York itself.Innocent_Abroad said:
Since Yorkshire is actually made up of three Ridings, I take it South Yorkshire would comprise those Tykes who had removed to the Great Wen. The intelligent ones, that is to say, or, at least - the bankers.TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.0 -
It will be close but that is the situation nowPulpstar said:
Too early to tell in all honesty on GOP vs DEM. My initial 270 to win map had Dems just over the line on 271.HYUFD said:
That is wrong, Clinton leads Trump by 2% and is tied with Crux in the RCP poll average even if Sanders does better than her although Rubio beats heroxfordsimon said:I am seeing a lot of people citing polls saying that the Democrats can only win in November with Sanders - as Clinton is beaten by all of the possible Republican choices.
Personally I think the Republicans would love to see Sanders as their opposition. All of their efforts have been to attack Clinton and so increase the possibility of facing Sanders - as he wold be a far easier opponent to defeat come the main vote. If Sanders does win the nomination (which looks increasingly unlikely), then they would rip him apart - even with Trump.
We are in a very phony way situation at the moment - and it all feels as if it has been going on for several decades too long. Must be even worse for those living through it directly.0 -
Supper Tuesday? Probably - all over by bedtime.0
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Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.
Important news elsewhere...
GaryLineker
2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
Share
Jamie Carragher
Carra23
Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
12:22 p.m. - 26 February 20160 -
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Cruz leads in Texas in almost every poll, Rubio is thirdDecrepitJohnL said:Texas might be interesting for punting in light of reports that Rubio and Cruz are campaigning heavily there. Can Rubio snatch Cruz's home state and will the two of them allow Trump through the middle?
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If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two nominees, would they be in aggregate the oldest two main party nominees ever to fight the election? It seems so.0
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At what point does Donald Trump's price crash? He still seems absurdly long given the results to date and the polling.0
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Until Bill Cash takes on Corbyn in the 2020 GE..... or in his dreams David Davis.AlastairMeeks said:If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two nominees, would they be in aggregate the oldest two main party nominees ever to fight the election? It seems so.
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Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.Scrapheap_as_was said:Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.
Important news elsewhere...
GaryLineker
2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
Share
Jamie Carragher
Carra23
Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016
If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up0 -
I've been Gove'd.0
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Bit of a worry over a RNC stitch up if he is perhaps 50 delegates short ?AlastairMeeks said:At what point does Donald Trump's price crash? He still seems absurdly long given the results to date and the polling.
OTOH Hillary is ahead and if its close will be stitched up for her. No WTA late states for the Democrats either.
Thats my last niggling doubt over Trump.0 -
Steve Hawkes
The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy0 -
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two nominees, would they be in aggregate the oldest two main party nominees ever to fight the election? It seems so.
Hillary, at 69, would be the oldest Democrat ever to contest the presidency (currently Lewis Cass, who was 66 at the 1848 election); Trump will be 70 in November but not the oldest Republican (Reagan, Dole and McCain were all older).
Between them, they'd break the record by almost nine years. The current record was set in 1984 when Reagan (73) defeated Mondale (56), who between them were about six and a half months older than Cass and Taylor in 1848.0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35662214/meet-the-student-who-caught-typhoid-for-3000
Cromwell might want to volunteer to get back that Rubio cash in a few days.0 -
I think super Tuesday is it for the Republican nom betting. Barring unlikely outcomes.AlastairMeeks said:At what point does Donald Trump's price crash? He still seems absurdly long given the results to date and the polling.
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I think your choice of the first primary is inspired, and no rational person could disagree.TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that British Party leaders should be elected via county primaries.
We start off with the small counties, like the Cornwall caucus and the Norfolk Primary, then a few more minor counties like Lancashire until Super Thursday when the important counties of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Yorkshire and South Yorkshire decide the leader.0 -
Is she getting fashion advice from TSE?Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy0 -
Tokyo Sexwale withdraws from POFIFA0
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Just point this out - should smooth things down...TheScreamingEagles said:
Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.Scrapheap_as_was said:Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.
Important news elsewhere...
GaryLineker
2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
Share
Jamie Carragher
Carra23
Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016
If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?
German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...
Lothar Matthäus
LMatthaeus10
What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
12:24 p.m. - 26 February 20160 -
If there is a stitch-up, it will be justified. Trump is comfortably on course to win an overwhelming majority of the delegates so the only way it could end in a brokered convention is if Trump does something so monumentally stupid that the electorate recoils in a way it hasn't yet. In that situation, it'd be fair enough for the superdelegates to override the views of voters who couldn't take the event in question into account.Pulpstar said:
Bit of a worry over a RNC stitch up if he is perhaps 50 delegates short ?AlastairMeeks said:At what point does Donald Trump's price crash? He still seems absurdly long given the results to date and the polling.
OTOH Hillary is ahead and if its close will be stitched up for her. No WTA late states for the Democrats either.
Thats my last niggling doubt over Trump.
But I very much doubt it will happen.
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Ed West
The Panacea Society believed Bedford to be the original site of the Garden of Eden https://t.co/NJEi6aeYob last member died in 20120 -
@HappyBritScot: .@steve_hawkes From another angle: Joanna Cherry praying for it to end soon and Eck...well...admiring? https://t.co/Zbw2BRHKE2Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy0 -
Eight European Cups between us, Spurs have how many, playing the side Klopp left Liverpool for.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Just point this out - should smooth things down...TheScreamingEagles said:
Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.Scrapheap_as_was said:Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.
Important news elsewhere...
GaryLineker
2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
Share
Jamie Carragher
Carra23
Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016
If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?
German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...
Lothar Matthäus
LMatthaeus10
What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.0 -
I have said on here before that Matt Taibbi's articles on the crash were required reading for anyone who wanted to understand the biggest theft in history.
He's back in Rolling Stone with a great article about the Trump phenomenon, its long but it explains his success and likely progress better than anything else I've read and its got some really funny lines: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224
A sample:
"Trump's speeches are never scripted, never exactly the same twice. Instead he just riffs and feels his way through crowds. He's no orator – as anyone who's read his books knows, he's not really into words, especially long ones – but he has an undeniable talent for commanding a room."
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OGH's home ....Plato_Says said:Ed West
The Panacea Society believed Bedford to be the original site of the Garden of Eden https://t.co/NJEi6aeYob last member died in 2012
"Adam and Eve Winning Here"
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That is such bollocks that it disgraces the Spectator - don't they bother to check their articles at all? The Bild survey that they seem to be referring to is this:Indigo said:FPT:
Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/Imagine if Nigel Farage declared that police should be ready to shoot migrants trying to make it from Calais to Britain; saying: ‘I don’t want to do this, but the use of armed force is there as a last resort.’ And imagine that in spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Ukip were to overtake the Labour party in a national poll to become the most popular opposition party. This, in effect, is what is happening in Germany.
http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/fluechtlingskrise-in-deutschland/wahlkampf-diese-umfrage-macht-alle-nervoes-44652150.bild.html
which shows the AfD in 4th place on 10%. What the writer has apparently done is take a regional poll in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the AfD inches ahead of the SPD (partly because the ex-Communist Left Party is the main left-wing party in Sachsen-Anhalt and ahead of the AfD), and call it a "national poll".
Here are all the national polls:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The latest one shows a CDU bounce and an AfD drop, though I think that's just marginal variation. The basic picture is that there has been a 5-point shift from CDU to AfD, putting the AfD on 10%ish; this happened several months ago and the position has been stable ever since. It's significant, but calling the AfD the "most popular opposition party" is just dumb.0 -
He still wins the best name EVER award!Pulpstar said:Tokyo Sexwale withdraws from POFIFA
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Is she over or under 50% of Eck's wife's age ?Scott_P said:
@HappyBritScot: .@steve_hawkes From another angle: Joanna Cherry praying for it to end soon and Eck...well...admiring? https://t.co/Zbw2BRHKE2Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy
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Same here. Gove is putting a lot of effort into this. I've made my first donation to Vote Leave.Casino_Royale said:I've been Gove'd.
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It shouldn't really need pointing out, but if Leave.EU and Grassroots Out are UKIP front organisations (to the point that UKIP members are on pain of expulsion if they work with another Leave organisation), they are much less likely to be chosen as the official Leave campaign than a genuinely cross-party organisation:
http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns0 -
No he doesn't. This lady wins that award.oxfordsimon said:
He still wins the best name EVER award!Pulpstar said:Tokyo Sexwale withdraws from POFIFA
http://www.skinner.nildram.co.uk/pix/minge.jpg0 -
From what I've read about Arron Banks and Nigel Farage, they aren't the sharpest tools in the shed (just tools) and secret plants for RemainAlastairMeeks said:It shouldn't really need pointing out, but if Leave.EU and Grassroots Out are UKIP front organisations (to the point that UKIP members are on pain of expulsion if they work with another Leave organisation), they are much less likely to be chosen as the official Leave campaign than a genuinely cross-party organisation:
http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns0 -
The way I see it, Vote Leave have the heavy hitters onside (Johnson, Gove, Howard, Lawson, Owen, Carswell etc.) as well as support from some Labour MPs, so it's a very easy choice for me to campaign for Vote Leave.TheScreamingEagles said:
From what I've read about Arron Banks and Nigel Farage, they aren't the sharpest tools in the shed (just tools) and secret plants for RemainAlastairMeeks said:It shouldn't really need pointing out, but if Leave.EU and Grassroots Out are UKIP front organisations (to the point that UKIP members are on pain of expulsion if they work with another Leave organisation), they are much less likely to be chosen as the official Leave campaign than a genuinely cross-party organisation:
http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns0 -
That's all ancient history though. How many footballers from any of those winning are still playing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight European Cups between us, Spurs have how many, playing the side Klopp left Liverpool for.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Just point this out - should smooth things down...TheScreamingEagles said:
Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.Scrapheap_as_was said:Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.
Important news elsewhere...
GaryLineker
2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
Share
Jamie Carragher
Carra23
Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016
If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?
German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...
Lothar Matthäus
LMatthaeus10
What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.
Sorry to hear about your leg.0 -
That is such bollocks that it disgraces the Spectator - don't they bother to check their articles at all? The Bild survey that they seem to be referring to is this:NickPalmer said:Indigo said:FPT:
Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/Imagine if Nigel Farage declared that police should be ready to shoot migrants trying to make it from Calais to Britain; saying: ‘I don’t want to do this, but the use of armed force is there as a last resort.’ And imagine that in spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Ukip were to overtake the Labour party in a national poll to become the most popular opposition party. This, in effect, is what is happening in Germany.
http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/fluechtlingskrise-in-deutschland/wahlkampf-diese-umfrage-macht-alle-nervoes-44652150.bild.html
which shows the AfD in 4th place on 10%. What the writer has apparently done is take a regional poll in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the AfD inches ahead of the SPD (partly because the ex-Communist Left Party is the main left-wing party in Sachsen-Anhalt and ahead of the AfD), and call it a "national poll".
Here are all the national polls:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The latest one shows a CDU bounce and an AfD drop, though I think that's just marginal variation. The basic picture is that there has been a 5-point shift from CDU to AfD, putting the AfD on 10%ish; this happened several months ago and the position has been stable ever since. It's significant, but calling the AfD the "most popular opposition party" is just dumb.
Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?0 -
You'd hope so. Though one suspects the Electoral Commission themselves would probably rather we stayed in the EU, both ideologically and from a make-work perspective.AlastairMeeks said:It shouldn't really need pointing out, but if Leave.EU and Grassroots Out are UKIP front organisations (to the point that UKIP members are on pain of expulsion if they work with another Leave organisation), they are much less likely to be chosen as the official Leave campaign than a genuinely cross-party organisation:
http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns0 -
Well, one could hardly imagine a better start for Rubio than having another candidate win 15 of the first 16 states.AlastairMeeks said:
If Trump gets a clean sweep, expect to see Rubio's price for the nomination drop below evens.williamglenn said:I wonder what Rubio would consider a good result for him on Super Tuesday. A clean sweep for Trump because that would knock Cruz out of the race?
If past betting market movements are anything to go by, anyway.0 -
This is just an accepted throw-away line in that article:Indigo said:FPT:
Sounds like things are going sour in German much faster than would have been expected.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-the-migrant-crisis-goes-on-like-this-there-may-be-no-eu-for-britain-to-leave/Imagine if Nigel Farage declared that police should be ready to shoot migrants trying to make it from Calais to Britain; saying: ‘I don’t want to do this, but the use of armed force is there as a last resort.’ And imagine that in spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Ukip were to overtake the Labour party in a national poll to become the most popular opposition party. This, in effect, is what is happening in Germany.
"While Cameron was trying (and failing) to secure a decent deal with the EU...."0 -
The Kop helped us win the 5th one. And that goal against Chelsea.david_herdson said:
That's all ancient history though. How many footballers from any of those winning are still playing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight European Cups between us, Spurs have how many, playing the side Klopp left Liverpool for.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Just point this out - should smooth things down...TheScreamingEagles said:
Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.Scrapheap_as_was said:Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.
Important news elsewhere...
GaryLineker
2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
Share
Jamie Carragher
Carra23
Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016
If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?
German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...
Lothar Matthäus
LMatthaeus10
What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.
Sorry to hear about your leg.0 -
I expect hope Ted Cruz points out (Fairly) that he has won "The great states of Texas and Iowa", whilst "Marco isn't even on the scoreboard" and that it is "Time for Marco to step aside" on wednesday morning.0
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@Maomentum_: "Socialist Party members opposed a motion calling simply for a Labour government"
https://t.co/jGl7fIfZph0 -
A crib for Super Tuesday http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/02/super_tuesday_2016_when_is_it.html
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia will hold primaries for both parties. Alaska will hold its Republican caucus while American Samoa will caucus for Democrats. Colorado will caucus for both parties though only the Democrats are choosing a candidate. Republicans in Colorado have opted to select delegates only and then let those delegates choose which candidate to support at the national convention.
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That is one of the most deluded articles I have read in a long time - if they weren't so earnestly sincere, you might think it was pastiche. But it is real. There are people who actually think like that. Amazing!Scott_P said:@Maomentum_: "Socialist Party members opposed a motion calling simply for a Labour government"
https://t.co/jGl7fIfZph0 -
But the Moggster is there. Watching. Does he ever sleep?Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy0 -
5 young kids, probably not!MarqueeMark said:
But the Moggster is there. Watching. Does he ever sleep?Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
The SNP's Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh going down a storm in the Commons https://t.co/wNi3GvGuQy0 -
Forest and Villa have won it three times between them, would hardly consider that a big game now though would you?TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight European Cups between us, Spurs have how many, playing the side Klopp left Liverpool for.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Just point this out - should smooth things down...TheScreamingEagles said:
Feel sorry for me. As a Liverpool fan in Manchester, we play the Manchester sides 4 times in 18 days.Scrapheap_as_was said:Thanks to Roger for the last thread - always one of the best ones on PB.
Important news elsewhere...
GaryLineker
2 footballing Giants have been drawn together in the Europa league as Dortmund face Spurs. Elsewhere Manchester United take on Liverpool.
12:25 p.m. - 26 February 2016
Share
Jamie Carragher
Carra23
Great Europa League draw for LFC, if we win happy days if we lose LVG will probably stay!!
12:22 p.m. - 26 February 2016
If we lose I'll have to deal with the Manc gobshites, if we win I'll get beat up
Not to dampen the party around this Liverpool v Manchester United tie, but it is a meeting between the sides in fifth and eight in a league currently rated the third best in Europe by Uefa. Dortmund v Tottenham is a far more intriguing prospect, surely?
German legend Lothar Matthaus seems to think so...
Lothar Matthäus
LMatthaeus10
What a fantastic tie @BVB vs @SpursOfficial in @EuropaLeague!! #Dortmund #Spurs #UEL
12:24 p.m. - 26 February 2016
I've got some bad news. I've got a bastard of a trapped nerve in my leg and I might not be able to make it to Wembley on Sunday.
As for the Kop winning it, anyone who has been going to football regularly since the eighties will tell you exactly what they think of those 'wonderful' Liverpool supporters.0 -
The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.html
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.0 -
Trump rising into the 40s in latest national polls.0
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necro....
Indy People
@TheIndyPeople
Donald Trump claimed he could have had sex with Princess Diana months after her death http://ind.pn/1QKgKIE pic.twitter.com/aodhYhF10X0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.htmlScott_P said:The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
Your posts increasingly resemble those of IOS crowing about his election winning 'ground game'.0 -
Be one of the better games next season.nigel4england said:
Forest and Villa have won it three times between them, would hardly consider that a big game now though would you?
In the Championship.
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Colorado has 37 delegates - perhaps they will end up deciding the result if they end up in a tight convention race.Plato_Says said:A crib for Super Tuesday http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/02/super_tuesday_2016_when_is_it.html
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia will hold primaries for both parties. Alaska will hold its Republican caucus while American Samoa will caucus for Democrats. Colorado will caucus for both parties though only the Democrats are choosing a candidate. Republicans in Colorado have opted to select delegates only and then let those delegates choose which candidate to support at the national convention.
It is all so strange to me - caucuses, open primaries, closed primaries, semi-closed primaries - all democratic in some way and all potentially pointless if things end in a brokered convention. Americans must hate their extended political selection system - it is dragged out over month after month - and then they must endure the 12 weeks of the full campaign (whilst also being bombarded with house, senate, governor, school board and all the other local races/votes. All feels like too much democracy. Certainly very few people can really have the time to fully examine the issues and the candidates and reach a considered decision for every election and issue vote.0 -
Got paid today. I'll be making mine later.Sean_F said:
Same here. Gove is putting a lot of effort into this. I've made my first donation to Vote Leave.Casino_Royale said:I've been Gove'd.
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That's a great article.DavidL said:I have said on here before that Matt Taibbi's articles on the crash were required reading for anyone who wanted to understand the biggest theft in history.
He's back in Rolling Stone with a great article about the Trump phenomenon, its long but it explains his success and likely progress better than anything else I've read and its got some really funny lines: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224
"Like the actual circus, this is a roving business. Cash flows to campaigns from people and donors; campaigns buy ads; ads pay for journalists; journalists assess candidates. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the ever-growing press corps tends in most years to like – or at least deem "most serious" – the candidates who buy the most ads. Nine out of 10 times in America, the candidate who raises the most money wins. And those candidates then owe the most favors.
"Meaning that for the pleasure of being able to watch insincere campaign coverage and see manipulative political ads on TV for free, we end up having to pay inflated Medicare drug prices, fund bank bailouts with our taxes, let billionaires pay 17 percent tax rates, and suffer a thousand other indignities. Trump is right: Because Jeb Bush can't afford to make his own commercials, he would go into the White House in the pocket of a drug manufacturer. It really is that stupid."
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"Trump found the flaw in the American Death Star. It doesn't know how to turn the cameras off, even when it's filming its own demise."0 -
Yes, great article.DavidL said:I have said on here before that Matt Taibbi's articles on the crash were required reading for anyone who wanted to understand the biggest theft in history.
He's back in Rolling Stone with a great article about the Trump phenomenon, its long but it explains his success and likely progress better than anything else I've read and its got some really funny lines: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224
And I sincerely hope that the word Backpfeifengesicht will enter the PB lexicon.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.htmlScott_P said:The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
Just clicked who Carswell reminds me of in the photo in that article, with his slightly weird half-face smile.
It's Popeye.
http://7-themes.com/data_images/out/40/6906405-popeye-wallpaper-hd.jpg0 -
The SPD, with around 24% of the vote, compared with the Left, Greens and AfD, all on about 10%, and the CDU on about 35%. Nobody is very popular!david_herdson said:
Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.htmlScott_P said:The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
Blairites thinks eurosceptics are mad. Shock.
This record hasn't changed for twenty years.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.htmlScott_P said:The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
Not saying that he is predictable, but even you don't feel the need to say who wrote it anymore
Nicking a living0 -
Posted without comment, this from the report of the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards (2013):-
"The UK's ability to make necessary reforms to financial regulation risks being constrained by the European regulatory process, which is developing rapidly as Eurozone countries move towards banking union. Some new financial regulation across the EU may be desirable as a support for the Single Market. However, there are at least two dangers for the UK. The first is that the prescriptive and box-ticking tendency of EU rules designed for 27 members will impede the move towards the more judgement-based approach being introduced in the UK in response to past regulatory failures. The second is that some EU regulations may limit the UK's regulatory scope for unilateral action. This could mean moving at the speed of the slowest ship in the convoy. This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford."0 -
What? Where? and When conducted?Pulpstar said:Trump rising into the 40s in latest national polls.
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Blairites thinks eurosceptics are mad. Shock.Casino_Royale said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.htmlScott_P said:The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
This record hasn't changed for twenty years.
Madness is frequently diagnosed in others by people who are none too grounded in reality themselves. Mentioning no pb members.0 -
'This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford'
But not a risk that the Remain side generally wish to acknowledge exists. Or if they do, they quickly gloss over it and focus on silly scare stories instead.
And it goes without saying the PM's 'deal' does virtually nothing to reduce this risk0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.htmlScott_P said:The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
Another article which avoids trying to make a positive case for remain.
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But the SPD is in government.NickPalmer said:
The SPD, with around 24% of the vote, compared with the Left, Greens and AfD, all on about 10%, and the CDU on about 35%. Nobody is very popular!david_herdson said:
Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?0 -
Another article which avoids trying to make a positive case for remain.TGOHF said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.htmlScott_P said:The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
What can they say?
"The continent is being invaded by swarms of people from a culture completely at odds with our own, encouraged by the head of the EU. A decent sized minority of those people are now attacking women, particularly white, western women, everywhere there is more than a handful of them..
In a decade they will have the same passport and rights in this country as you or I
And there will be millions more coming this year, so we are rushing the vote before the shit really hits the fan"
It's a hard sell trying to spin the postives on that one0 -
It's certainly a risk which sensible people acknowledge exists, although Cameron's deal helps a bit. That isn't quite the issue, though, is it? The issue is, starting from where we are now (unfortunately, without the veto on financial regulation which Brown threw away for nothing in return), what can be done about it? Jumping into the EEA, where we'd have no vote at all and no institutional protection at all, cannot be said to mitigate that risk.runnymede said:'This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford'
But not a risk that the Remain side generally wish to acknowledge exists. Or if they do, they quickly gloss over it and focus on silly scare stories instead.
And it goes without saying the PM's 'deal' does virtually nothing to reduce this risk
So, if we're going to mitigate the risk, it's got to be the Full Monty option, as that Gerard Lyons article you posted yesterday argued. But that means taking on the risk of not having passporting of financial services, and the possible loss of euro clearing.
When it comes to glossing over risks, the Leave side takes the biscuit.0 -
SPD are in government not opposition.NickPalmer said:
The SPD, with around 24% of the vote, compared with the Left, Greens and AfD, all on about 10%, and the CDU on about 35%. Nobody is very popular!david_herdson said:
Is it? Which is the most popular opposition party at the moment?0 -
Another article which avoids trying to make a positive case for remain.TGOHF said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174716/Those-saying-we-should-leave-Europe-are-infected-with-madness.htmlScott_P said:The reason why the Out campaign are going to lose the 2016 Euro referendum is simple. The Out campaign is stark, raving mad.
Let me clarify this. There are many campaigners for Out who are good, decent, principled, intelligent, well-balanced, people. Some of my best friends are Out.
But they are infected by madness. A mania. They have contracted the fever. Euro-fever.
Liz Truss is pretty capable but struggled last night. It's difficult when leave can use emotive words like democracy, freedom and self determination.0 -
I can't think how our innovative financial services sector will cope with a changing environment- said nobody ever.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's certainly a risk which sensible people acknowledge exists, although Cameron's deal helps a bit. That isn't quite the issue, though, is it? The issue is, starting from where we are now (unfortunately, without the veto on financial regulation which Brown threw away for nothing in return), what can be done about it? Jumping into the EEA, where we'd have no vote at all and no institutional protection at all, cannot be said to mitigate that risk.runnymede said:'This is a risk which the UK, as a medium-sized economy hosting one of the world's two most important financial centres, cannot afford'
But not a risk that the Remain side generally wish to acknowledge exists. Or if they do, they quickly gloss over it and focus on silly scare stories instead.
And it goes without saying the PM's 'deal' does virtually nothing to reduce this risk
So, if we're going to mitigate the risk, it's got to be the Full Monty option, as that Gerard Lyons article you posted yesterday argued. But that means taking on the risk of not having passporting of financial services, and the possible loss of euro clearing.
When it comes to glossing over risks, the Leave side takes the biscuit.
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