politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There was a similar phone/online polling divide at the last
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There was a similar phone/online polling divide at the last national UK referendum
I get asked several a week at the moment for a view on online phone divide that we’ve seen over the EURef. Which is better I’m asked and I’m reluctant to come down on one side or the other.
0
Comments
-
First like Leave.0
-
0
-
0
-
Might not apply this time. The EU doesn't set the pulses racing like AV, which might have an impact on turnout.
Or it could be the phone and online polls are both wrong, and leave are going to win by a landslide.0 -
Fifth, like Ben Carson in Nevada0
-
Although polls should be taken with a pinch, or perhaps a small boulder, of salt, this is still useful information.
Alas, it tallies with my own instinct.0 -
Exalted One,TheScreamingEagles said:Might not apply this time. The EU doesn't set the pulses racing like AV, which might have an impact on turnout.
Or it could be the phone and online polls are both wrong, and leave are going to win by a landslide.
May point out to you that a (future) Directly Elected Dictator of the UK would have far more powers if our country were to leave the EU? If we stayed in, He would have far fewer powers.0 -
BES has taken the nation's pulse as soft remain has it not ?
If I was a pundit I'd declare it was "all over".
As is, I think there is probably some small value in Remain on the exchange, but I'm not going to bother.0 -
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
0 -
Is there a market up for how much Remain will win by yet?
Still thinking 15 percentage points looks a like a good starter...0 -
This is not the AV thread we’ve been waiting for.
Apologies to Obi-Wan…
0 -
Point of order.
The phones polls showed at the beginning of the campaign the largest AV leads, and by the end the largest FPTP leads:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011
At the beginning they showed AV leads of 12-15 points larger than yougov , and in the end the difference was 6-8 points larger than yougov FPTP leads0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014
There was no difference between the two for the Scottish Referendum, however.0 -
O/T:
At the zombie review North Yorkshire's 8 seats were all within 5% of the quota IIRC. Unfortunately this time Scarborough & Whitby has just fallen below the lower limit by around 300 votes. The other 7 seats are within 5%.0 -
0
-
Is that lefties who vote for the Tartan Tories?Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
The remain project fear had a little bump in the road today I see.
No 10 apologises to ex-special forces chief for inclusion in EU letter
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/no-10-apologises-special-forces-chief-eu-letter-gen-sir-michael-rose
0 -
I think OGH has been spending time in the company of King Kenny Dalgleish: "maybe's aye, maybe's no".0
-
Maybe there are as yet only 14 people online in Scotland.Sean_F said:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014
There was no difference between the two for the Scottish Referendum, however.
And they all post here.....0 -
And yet even those weak puns make more sense than your incoherent ramblings.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Two AV themed threads in the last few days.SimonStClare said:This is not the AV thread we’ve been waiting for.
Apologies to Obi-Wan…
Patience my young Padawan0 -
If I were to be a leaver I would be happy to vote leave on the basis that the Government of the day negotiate the best terms possible for UK outside the EU.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If you don't trust the UK government to to put the interests of the country as expressed by the people at the pinnacle of their endeavors, then change the government.
It is not in the power of the leave campaign to dictate the terms of leave, and nor should they need to during this period. Suggestions and ideas can be given, but Leave don't have power or authority to enact a program after a leave vote. The government do.
Leave are not (as the SNP were) expecting to form a government.
0 -
Stick a fork to Rubio:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/marco-rubio-nevada-win-states
Rubio: 'You Don’t Win The Nomination By How Many States You Win'
Seems his campaign thinks he can win without winning.0 -
We still have the power to fire our Trident missiles at France. Is all the power I need.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Exalted One,TheScreamingEagles said:Might not apply this time. The EU doesn't set the pulses racing like AV, which might have an impact on turnout.
Or it could be the phone and online polls are both wrong, and leave are going to win by a landslide.
May point out to you that a (future) Directly Elected Dictator of the UK would have far more powers if our country were to leave the EU? If we stayed in, He would have far fewer powers.0 -
Why does there need to be a market?murali_s said:Is there a market up for how much Remain will win by yet?
Still thinking 15 percentage points looks a like a good starter...
Just lay the under/over 15 line on here yourself at 10/11 if that's what you think it will be0 -
Some of them aren't very bright, I grant you that.Charles said:
Is that lefties who vote for the Tartan Tories?Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
0 -
Bet365 go:murali_s said:Is there a market up for how much Remain will win by yet?
Still thinking 15 percentage points looks a like a good starter...
4/5 over 54.5% (i.e. win by 9%)
10/11 under 54.5%0 -
The quality of abuse on here is dreadful these days.Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet even those weak puns make more sense than your incoherent ramblings.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
0 -
Indeed Sunil. No decrees from on high on what shoes we should wear to honour the great one.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Exalted One,TheScreamingEagles said:Might not apply this time. The EU doesn't set the pulses racing like AV, which might have an impact on turnout.
Or it could be the phone and online polls are both wrong, and leave are going to win by a landslide.
May point out to you that a (future) Directly Elected Dictator of the UK would have far more powers if our country were to leave the EU? If we stayed in, He would have far fewer powers.0 -
It is certainly within the legal competence of the LEAVE campaign (or anyone else) to make suggestions. The fact that you prefer US spelling gives me an idea. Why not campaign for the £ to be replaced by the $?philiph said:
If I were to be a leaver I would be happy to vote leave on the basis that the Government of the day negotiate the best terms possible for UK outside the EU.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If you don't trust the UK government to to put the interests of the country as expressed by the people at the pinnacle of their endeavors, then change the government.
It is not in the power of the leave campaign to dictate the terms of leave, and nor should they need to during this period. Suggestions and ideas can be given, but Leave don't have power or authority to enact a program after a leave vote. The government do.
Leave are not (as the SNP were) expecting to form a government.
0 -
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Various Leavers have given various suggestions. Farage has said he wants to be out altogether. Carswell, Hannan and others have said they want EFTA. On here I believe more want EFTA than out altogether. But that is a choice that isn't available on this referendum and for the future.Innocent_Abroad said:
It is certainly within the legal competence of the LEAVE campaign (or anyone else) to make suggestions. The fact that you prefer US spelling gives me an idea. Why not campaign for the £ to be replaced by the $?philiph said:
If I were to be a leaver I would be happy to vote leave on the basis that the Government of the day negotiate the best terms possible for UK outside the EU.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If you don't trust the UK government to to put the interests of the country as expressed by the people at the pinnacle of their endeavors, then change the government.
It is not in the power of the leave campaign to dictate the terms of leave, and nor should they need to during this period. Suggestions and ideas can be given, but Leave don't have power or authority to enact a program after a leave vote. The government do.
Leave are not (as the SNP were) expecting to form a government.
Realistically I suspect EFTA would be the outcome. If a significant fraction of Leavers want it and almost all Remainers would then a narrow Leave majority would become a significant EFTA majority.0 -
We’re still in the early days of the Euro. In historical terms.Indigo said:
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
The Euro to be succesful in the long term needs further integration methinks.OldKingCole said:
We’re still in the early days of the Euro. In historical terms.Indigo said:
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Incidentally if we ever get a Leave PM maybe we could have a second (third?) referendum this time by AV with the options Remain, join EFTA instead, Leave with the PM campaigning for the middle option. Like how the SNP originally wanted devomax on the ballot.0
-
I don't, but if my computer prefers it, I am not going to argue with the electronics and my poor typing skills.Innocent_Abroad said:
It is certainly within the legal competence of the LEAVE campaign (or anyone else) to make suggestions. The fact that you prefer US spelling gives me an idea. Why not campaign for the £ to be replaced by the $?philiph said:
If I were to be a leaver I would be happy to vote leave on the basis that the Government of the day negotiate the best terms possible for UK outside the EU.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If you don't trust the UK government to to put the interests of the country as expressed by the people at the pinnacle of their endeavors, then change the government.
It is not in the power of the leave campaign to dictate the terms of leave, and nor should they need to during this period. Suggestions and ideas can be given, but Leave don't have power or authority to enact a program after a leave vote. The government do.
Leave are not (as the SNP were) expecting to form a government.0 -
EFTA is a good comprise, it even allows a bone to be thrown to the Faragists, it won't be enough, but there is a good track record of throwing bones to the angry natives north of the borderPhilip_Thompson said:Realistically I suspect EFTA would be the outcome. If a significant fraction of Leavers want it and almost all Remainers would then a narrow Leave majority would become a significant EFTA majority.
With an EFTA Leave we can take the Swiss route of banning all benefits from illegal immigrants, and making it impossible to get a job here without the right paperwork, which will drop number of illegal immigrants and scroungers to very small numbers rapidly.
0 -
It is likely to go down in history as the Esperanto of currencies... and brief flurry of interest and then it dies out in a fit of bickering and distrust, leaving a very small number using is in a decade or so.OldKingCole said:
We’re still in the early days of the Euro. In historical terms.Indigo said:
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Bollox. EFTA has a population of 13.5 million - roughly a fifth of ours. Show me any evidence at all that they would welcome our arrival on their doorstep. It would be an act of imperialism.Philip_Thompson said:
Various Leavers have given various suggestions. Farage has said he wants to be out altogether. Carswell, Hannan and others have said they want EFTA. On here I believe more want EFTA than out altogether. But that is a choice that isn't available on this referendum and for the future.Innocent_Abroad said:
It is certainly within the legal competence of the LEAVE campaign (or anyone else) to make suggestions. The fact that you prefer US spelling gives me an idea. Why not campaign for the £ to be replaced by the $?philiph said:
If I were to be a leaver I would be happy to vote leave on the basis that the Government of the day negotiate the best terms possible for UK outside the EU.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If you don't trust the UK government to to put the interests of the country as expressed by the people at the pinnacle of their endeavors, then change the government.
It is not in the power of the leave campaign to dictate the terms of leave, and nor should they need to during this period. Suggestions and ideas can be given, but Leave don't have power or authority to enact a program after a leave vote. The government do.
Leave are not (as the SNP were) expecting to form a government.
Realistically I suspect EFTA would be the outcome. If a significant fraction of Leavers want it and almost all Remainers would then a narrow Leave majority would become a significant EFTA majority.
0 -
So far reports of the death of the Euro have proven to be greatly exaggerated. I have to say I thought there were a number of points where Greece at least looked like a goner but with an absurd amount of help (despite being obnoxious) they hung in there. The political commitment to keeping it going is not to be underestimated.Indigo said:
It is likely to go down in history as the Esperanto of currencies... and brief flurry of interest and then it dies out in a fit of bickering and distrust, leaving a very small number using is in a decade or so.OldKingCole said:
We’re still in the early days of the Euro. In historical terms.Indigo said:
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Yes. But reality dictates that half, maybe more, of all politics is events dear boy. The strategic vision for the next ten years is going to be completely overwhelmed by the migrant crisis and any second banking crisis.Pulpstar said:
The Euro to be succesful in the long term needs further integration methinks.OldKingCole said:
We’re still in the early days of the Euro. In historical terms.Indigo said:
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Mr. L, a large edifice can creak for a long time before it utterly crumbles. The Western Empire was on its knees for nearly a century before it finally collapsed. The Eastern's days were numbered for even longer.0
-
@JananGanesh: Tories chose Zac to lose and shore up Corbyn. Also using Gove as licensed EU rebel. Two conspiracy theories I've heard from sentient adults0
-
That's an entirely different question to what the British public want. As for evidence, we were members of the EFTA in the past, how about that? Or the the fact that we founded the EFTA?Innocent_Abroad said:Bollox. EFTA has a population of 13.5 million - roughly a fifth of ours. Show me any evidence at all that they would welcome our arrival on their doorstep. It would be an act of imperialism.
Or how about the fact that the Norwegians and others who are in the EFTA have said publicly that they would happily welcome us back into the EFTA?
Is that enough for you?0 -
Maine, Nebraska, Idaho, Kansas can't raise a single Democrt poll between them !0
-
"Would Norway want Britain in EFTA?", I asked. "After all, Norway is the biggest, most powerful current member of this trading bloc. Wouldn't it lose out if a much bigger, more powerful UK joined?"
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84212
"Of course not", Anne exclaimed, looking at me as if I had uttered something about the Pope not being a Catholic. "It would be in the Norwegian interest to have Britain in EFTA". If one could speak in capitals, she just did.
Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.0 -
I'm sure you can provide a link or four, Philip.Philip_Thompson said:
That's an entirely different question to what the British public want. As for evidence, we were members of the EFTA in the past, how about that? Or the the fact that we founded the EFTA?Innocent_Abroad said:Bollox. EFTA has a population of 13.5 million - roughly a fifth of ours. Show me any evidence at all that they would welcome our arrival on their doorstep. It would be an act of imperialism.
Or how about the fact that the Norwegians and others who are in the EFTA have said publicly that they would happily welcome us back into the EFTA?
Is that enough for you?
0 -
Lots of these states going unpolled even for the Reps... I think it's because the race was supposed to be overPulpstar said:Maine, Nebraska, Idaho, Kansas can't raise a single Democrt poll between them !
0 -
Already done. Now try and provide any that say the opposite.Innocent_Abroad said:
I'm sure you can provide a link or four, Philip.Philip_Thompson said:
That's an entirely different question to what the British public want. As for evidence, we were members of the EFTA in the past, how about that? Or the the fact that we founded the EFTA?Innocent_Abroad said:Bollox. EFTA has a population of 13.5 million - roughly a fifth of ours. Show me any evidence at all that they would welcome our arrival on their doorstep. It would be an act of imperialism.
Or how about the fact that the Norwegians and others who are in the EFTA have said publicly that they would happily welcome us back into the EFTA?
Is that enough for you?0 -
Europhiles want the UK to be run from Brussels.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
The dam is breaking:
http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/washington-politics/chris-collins-becomes-first-sitting-member-of-congress-to-endorse-trump-20160224
https://twitter.com/NickGass/status/702523454768156673
Though as Rubio and Bush proved, endorsements and donors don't matter much, it looks like the establishment is ready to throw the towel.0 -
The euro continues to expand with Lithuania joining last year. All EU countries are obliged to join it except the UK and Denmark although only Sweden and Denmark are probably in a position to do so. Denmark is a member of ERM II which is supposed to be a precursor to joining.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, a large edifice can creak for a long time before it utterly crumbles. The Western Empire was on its knees for nearly a century before it finally collapsed. The Eastern's days were numbered for even longer.
The euro has also become the currency of countries not even in the EU, a bit like those countries that use the US $. It is a major currency of the world and is going nowhere.0 -
These aren't the EU reforms you're looking forSimonStClare said:This is not the AV thread we’ve been waiting for.
Apologies to Obi-Wan…
0 -
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84212Philip_Thompson said:"Would Norway want Britain in EFTA?", I asked. "After all, Norway is the biggest, most powerful current member of this trading bloc. Wouldn't it lose out if a much bigger, more powerful UK joined?"
"Of course not", Anne exclaimed, looking at me as if I had uttered something about the Pope not being a Catholic. "It would be in the Norwegian interest to have Britain in EFTA". If one could speak in capitals, she just did.
Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.
Let me get this clear.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
0 -
But, exalted one, why limit your ambitions to mere France?TheScreamingEagles said:
We still have the power to fire our Trident missiles at France. Is all the power I need.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Exalted One,TheScreamingEagles said:Might not apply this time. The EU doesn't set the pulses racing like AV, which might have an impact on turnout.
Or it could be the phone and online polls are both wrong, and leave are going to win by a landslide.
May point out to you that a (future) Directly Elected Dictator of the UK would have far more powers if our country were to leave the EU? If we stayed in, He would have far fewer powers.0 -
It is way too strong for some of the countries using it though.DavidL said:
The euro continues to expand with Lithuania joining last year. All EU countries are obliged to join it except the UK and Denmark although only Sweden and Denmark are probably in a position to do so. Denmark is a member of ERM II which is supposed to be a precursor to joining.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, a large edifice can creak for a long time before it utterly crumbles. The Western Empire was on its knees for nearly a century before it finally collapsed. The Eastern's days were numbered for even longer.
The euro has also become the currency of countries not even in the EU, a bit like those countries that use the US $. It is a major currency of the world and is going nowhere.0 -
I don't believe in making long-term bets, but I suspect we will be members of it within 20 years.OldKingCole said:
We’re still in the early days of the Euro. In historical terms.Indigo said:
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Let me get this clear.Innocent_Abroad said:
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84212Philip_Thompson said:"Would Norway want Britain in EFTA?", I asked. "After all, Norway is the biggest, most powerful current member of this trading bloc. Wouldn't it lose out if a much bigger, more powerful UK joined?"
"Of course not", Anne exclaimed, looking at me as if I had uttered something about the Pope not being a Catholic. "It would be in the Norwegian interest to have Britain in EFTA". If one could speak in capitals, she just did.
Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
So far as the EEA is concerned the decision makers are not the EFTA countries but the EU. Switzerland is not a part of the EEA but achieves much the same through its bilateral agreement. We could do the same with the EU whether EFTA liked it or not and we almost certainly would given the economic advantages to both sides.
Of course there is no reason at all for EFTA not to like it. With the UK in EFTA they would get pushed around a lot less.
0 -
Let me get this clear.Innocent_Abroad said:
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84212Philip_Thompson said:"Would Norway want Britain in EFTA?", I asked. "After all, Norway is the biggest, most powerful current member of this trading bloc. Wouldn't it lose out if a much bigger, more powerful UK joined?"
"Of course not", Anne exclaimed, looking at me as if I had uttered something about the Pope not being a Catholic. "It would be in the Norwegian interest to have Britain in EFTA". If one could speak in capitals, she just did.
Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
No it says that politicians think we should stay in the EU for our own interests. It doesn't say we wouldn't be welcome into the EFTA if we chose to leave.0 -
I got LEAVE when I tried this.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-should-vote-eu-referendum-74327340 -
And not strong enough for others. That is the nature of such a compromise. But even more of a problem is the single interest rate and monetary policy that comes with it.taffys said:
It is way too strong for some of the countries using it though.DavidL said:
The euro continues to expand with Lithuania joining last year. All EU countries are obliged to join it except the UK and Denmark although only Sweden and Denmark are probably in a position to do so. Denmark is a member of ERM II which is supposed to be a precursor to joining.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, a large edifice can creak for a long time before it utterly crumbles. The Western Empire was on its knees for nearly a century before it finally collapsed. The Eastern's days were numbered for even longer.
The euro has also become the currency of countries not even in the EU, a bit like those countries that use the US $. It is a major currency of the world and is going nowhere.
A 20 year bet does not seem sensible but if it was I would be happy to take Nick's bet. The compromises of a single currency and interest rate would cause serious damage to the UK. The last 7 years have been unprecedented but we need higher interest rates to keep a cap on our housing market. The damaging booms in Spain and Eire are nothing compared with what would have happened to the UK if we had had a continental interest rate in the years to 2007.0 -
I got David Cameron, Remain (but with little joy)Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I got LEAVE when I tried this.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-should-vote-eu-referendum-74327340 -
I agree. I'm less sure how much I'll be in a position to care one way or the otherNickPalmer said:
I don't believe in making long-term bets, but I suspect we will be members of it within 20 years.OldKingCole said:
We’re still in the early days of the Euro. In historical terms.Indigo said:
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:
0 -
There's an extraordinary lack of scrutiny in the press on Eurozone monetary policy, it seems to me.
Despite just about the easiest monetary conditions there could ever be in the history of the world ever, the eurozone appears to be going precisely nowhere.
There's absolutely no sense of alarm about this anywhere serious, or questions as to the reasons why there's little growth despite colossal stimulus. Or much speculation as to when and where that growth may re-emerge and what might make it re-emerge.
0 -
No it says that politicians think we should stay in the EU for our own interests. It doesn't say we wouldn't be welcome into the EFTA if we chose to leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Let me get this clear.Innocent_Abroad said:
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84212Philip_Thompson said:"Would Norway want Britain in EFTA?", I asked. "After all, Norway is the biggest, most powerful current member of this trading bloc. Wouldn't it lose out if a much bigger, more powerful UK joined?"
"Of course not", Anne exclaimed, looking at me as if I had uttered something about the Pope not being a Catholic. "It would be in the Norwegian interest to have Britain in EFTA". If one could speak in capitals, she just did.
Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
Re-read what I wrote and not what you imagine I wrote.
0 -
'It [the euro] is a major currency of the world and is going nowhere.'
Correct.
For years now there has been a certain strand of opinion in the UK that has argued along the lines 'we're in the EU, we don't like some of the things it does, but maybe it will collapse anyway soon so we will be all right'.
This is a delusion, and one that comes from a complete failure to grasp just how strong the political consensus in most EU states is for further integration. Even at the expense of doing economically illogical things.
I vividly remember in the mid-1990s City colleagues of mine laughing off my concerns about the UK joining EMU on the basis that 'we all know it won't happen anyway' and poring over the so-called 'Convergence Criteria' to prove their point. A few conversations with people in the know in our neighbour countries would have made it clear these criteria were for show only, and so it proved.
We have to make our own destiny in this matter, not rely on decisions elsewhere to make it for us.0 -
Third World wage levels.taffys said:There's an extraordinary lack of scrutiny in the press on Eurozone monetary policy, it seems to me.
Despite just about the easiest monetary conditions there could ever be in the history of the world ever, the eurozone appears to be going precisely nowhere.
There's absolutely no sense of alarm about this anywhere serious, or questions as to the reasons why there's little growth despite colossal stimulus. Or much speculation as to when and where that growth may re-emerge and what might make it re-emerge.
0 -
Yes I would take Nick's bet too. They got the cart before the horse, for me. First make Italy and France like Germany and then get a single currency.DavidL said:
And not strong enough for others. That is the nature of such a compromise. But even more of a problem is the single interest rate and monetary policy that comes with it.taffys said:
It is way too strong for some of the countries using it though.DavidL said:
The euro continues to expand with Lithuania joining last year. All EU countries are obliged to join it except the UK and Denmark although only Sweden and Denmark are probably in a position to do so. Denmark is a member of ERM II which is supposed to be a precursor to joining.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, a large edifice can creak for a long time before it utterly crumbles. The Western Empire was on its knees for nearly a century before it finally collapsed. The Eastern's days were numbered for even longer.
The euro has also become the currency of countries not even in the EU, a bit like those countries that use the US $. It is a major currency of the world and is going nowhere.
A 20 year bet does not seem sensible but if it was I would be happy to take Nick's bet. The compromises of a single currency and interest rate would cause serious damage to the UK. The last 7 years have been unprecedented but we need higher interest rates to keep a cap on our housing market. The damaging booms in Spain and Eire are nothing compared with what would have happened to the UK if we had had a continental interest rate in the years to 2007.
They are trying to do it the other way around.0 -
It said I was Nick Clegg. (I'm not actually Nick Clegg, just to clarify.)Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I got LEAVE when I tried this.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-should-vote-eu-referendum-74327340 -
Let me get this clear.Innocent_Abroad said:
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84212Philip_Thompson said:"Would Norway want Britain in EFTA?", I asked. "After all, Norway is the biggest, most powerful current member of this trading bloc. Wouldn't it lose out if a much bigger, more powerful UK joined?"
"Of course not", Anne exclaimed, looking at me as if I had uttered something about the Pope not being a Catholic. "It would be in the Norwegian interest to have Britain in EFTA". If one could speak in capitals, she just did.
Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
Your a parody of yourself sometimes, he quotes a guy saying:Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
and you think it's a bit lukewarm ? "Is that best you can do?"
Are you serious, what is he supposed to do, get photos of the politician dancing around the room at the idea ? Naming his firstborn "UKinEFTA" ?0 -
20 years is less time than you think. Does it feel like almost 20 years since 'a new dawn' broke in Britain with the New Labour landslide?NickPalmer said:
I don't believe in making long-term bets, but I suspect we will be members of it within 20 years.OldKingCole said:
We’re still in the early days of the Euro. In historical terms.Indigo said:
Well atleast we Leavers will get a good long gloat and an lot of cut and paste from Remainers postings when it all falls apart, and it turns out we were right after all.... like we were about the Euro. It's not much of a consolation for watching people who don't learn from history fuck up our country, but its something.Innocent_Abroad said:
Having no arguments, nor indeed any idea of how we would LEAVE, its proponents are reduced to weak puns. The decisive votes will be cast in the conurbations and Celtic nations by lefties.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Your a parody of yourself sometimes, he quotes a guy saying:Indigo said:
Let me get this clear.Innocent_Abroad said:
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84212Philip_Thompson said:"Would Norway want Britain in EFTA?", I asked. "After all, Norway is the biggest, most powerful current member of this trading bloc. Wouldn't it lose out if a much bigger, more powerful UK joined?"
"Of course not", Anne exclaimed, looking at me as if I had uttered something about the Pope not being a Catholic. "It would be in the Norwegian interest to have Britain in EFTA". If one could speak in capitals, she just did.
Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.Britain would be very welcome on EFTA. In fact, if Britain left the EU and joined EFTA, "that would be fantastic".
and you think it's a bit lukewarm ? "Is that best you can do?"
Are you serious, what is he supposed to do, get photos of the politician dancing around the room at the idea ? Naming his firstborn "UKinEFTA" ?
Selective quotation. Yes, one of the politicians quoted said what you said. Another one said that Britain should stay in the EU.
0 -
Those are coming anyway. Our productivity sucks. There is almost no good reason to set up a new manufacturing business in the UK, taxes are lower elsewhere, labour is (much) cheaper elsewhere, productivity is (massively) better elsewhere, workforces complain less, work harder and are better educated else where. We can't keep the country afloat by selling each other insurance forever, as will become painfully apparent in the next financial downturn.Innocent_Abroad said:
Third World wage levels.taffys said:There's an extraordinary lack of scrutiny in the press on Eurozone monetary policy, it seems to me.
Despite just about the easiest monetary conditions there could ever be in the history of the world ever, the eurozone appears to be going precisely nowhere.
There's absolutely no sense of alarm about this anywhere serious, or questions as to the reasons why there's little growth despite colossal stimulus. Or much speculation as to when and where that growth may re-emerge and what might make it re-emerge.
To use an old cliche, "The world doesn't owe us a living", and most of the rest of it is working harder for their money than we are.0 -
"The chart above I’d based on the average NO2AV lead in the final polls years ago. Then the phone pollster trounced the online ones. Maybe that is happening this time as well. Maybe not."
It isn't happening, because we're nowhere near the final polls. For the past two months, the phone results have been changing much faster than the online ones, though. In the direction of Leave.
In case anyone hasn't worked it out yet, the reason why Cameron expressed his contempt today for Jeremy Corbyn not wearing a "proper suit", not knotting his tie higher, and showing near-traitorously insufficient love for the royal family, Purdey rifles and the principle of hereditary wealth and power, is not that he felt like it or because the opportunity arose.
Let's say it. The "round up the single mothers, oiks and scroungers, spread tuberculosis among those we don't want to employ as cleaners or personal servants, and put Romanians back on the boat at Dover, and who cares whether it sinks?" base of the Tory party is set to have a field day over the coming four months of the referendum campaign.
Marketeers working for Remain don't want to lose all those who have such a mentality to Leave. That simply wouldn't do. It wouldn't do at all.
Prediction: we'll get more of the same. They're not going to let Leave run off with the obnoxiousness card. Soames, where are you, my man? Job for you!
0 -
"Euroscepticism in Scotland soars to record high
Survey findings contradict SNP claims that referendum could take Scotland out of EU against its will"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/euroscepticism-scotland-record-high0 -
I make the same point about this country. With interest rates at an "emergency" 0.5% for 7 years, a frighteningly large public sector deficit giving a massive Keynesian boost to demand, far more credit available than is good for us and quantitative easing that increased our money base by a significant percentage we are struggling to grow 2.3% this year.taffys said:There's an extraordinary lack of scrutiny in the press on Eurozone monetary policy, it seems to me.
Despite just about the easiest monetary conditions there could ever be in the history of the world ever, the eurozone appears to be going precisely nowhere.
There's absolutely no sense of alarm about this anywhere serious, or questions as to the reasons why there's little growth despite colossal stimulus. Or much speculation as to when and where that growth may re-emerge and what might make it re-emerge.
To use an analogy we have our foot flat on the floor and have had for years but are in constant danger of stalling. Why is this?
There are still huge deflationary pressures from the wind down of 2008, there is still way too much debt depressing demand and our economies are simply too rigid to allow the kind of growth that much of Asia is achieving. We are not in a good place. Better than 2008 but not good, not good at all.
There is an argument that this is not a good time to take the risk of Leaving. There is also an argument that things have to change before they get worse. Take your pick.0 -
You're certainly doing your best to make sure that Leave doesn't monopolise the obnoxiousness card...John_N said:"The chart above I’d based on the average NO2AV lead in the final polls years ago. Then the phone pollster trounced the online ones. Maybe that is happening this time as well. Maybe not."
It isn't happening, because we're nowhere near the final polls. For the past two months, the phone results have been changing much faster than the online ones, though. In the direction of Leave.
In case anyone hasn't worked it out yet, the reason why Cameron expressed his contempt today for Jeremy Corbyn not wearing a "proper suit", not knotting his tie higher, and showing near-traitorously insufficient love for the royal family, Purdey rifles and the principle of hereditary wealth and power, is not that he felt like it or because the opportunity arose.
Let's say it. The "round up the single mothers, oiks and scroungers, spread tuberculosis among those we don't want to employ as cleaners or personal servants, and put Romanians back on the boat at Dover, and who cares whether it sinks?" base of the Tory party is set to have a field day over the coming four months of the referendum campaign.
Marketeers working for Remain don't want to lose all those who have such a mentality to Leave. That simply wouldn't do. It wouldn't do at all.
Prediction: we'll get more of the same. They're not going to let Leave run off with the obnoxiousness card. Soames, where are you, my man? Job for you!0 -
I don't see how it's going to work given the restrictions. Merton is 1.74 seats. It can't be cleanly twinned with Wandsworth (2.69 seats = 4.4 seats combined) or Sutton (1.82 seats = 3.5 seats combined) and even all 3 together is 6.25 and so with 6 seats an average of 77,834 per seat which is uncomfortably close to the limit of 78,507 to allow any variation of electorate across the 6 seats. More problematically, Lambeth + Southwark is fine at 5 seats, Croydon is just about OK at 3 seats and the 3 Kingston/Richmond seats of Twickenham, Richmond Park, and Kingston and Surbiton can all remain unchanged.AndyJS said:
The boundary commission will probably try to avoid pairing more than 2 London boroughs although that may not be possible with the new 5% limit.Lennon said:
Lambeth and Southwark are currently joined with 5 Constituencies, and under the new electorates have a quota of exactly 5. You could thus get away with minor changes (Bermondsey and Old Southwark and Camberwell and Peckham are both oversized, with the other 3 being undersized). However, I don't think that it will end up happening due to the surrounding electorates not working well.AndyJS said:
Yes. I'm trying to see if there are any counties or parts of counties which contain seats that don't require alterations. As you say you'd need a cluster of them.david_herdson said:
Virtually every constituency will be withdrawn, whether they have too few, too many or the right number of voters, as even where they're right of themselves, their neighbours will in all probability intrude.AndyJS said:Every LD constituency apart from Orkney & Shetland will have to be redrawn because they don't contain enough voters:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-H4eqc43aDRvF9V_VOjTQRh-rPmNifYJom-yaJ79Rpg/edit#gid=691776438
Suspect that you will either need to cross the river - "Putney and Fulham" - or screw up Lambeth/Southwark or Croydon to shift seats across somewhere else.
0 -
I think there is a big difference between wanting powers reduced, and voting to leave. I suspect the relevant quantity would be "degree of euroscepticism".AndyJS said:"Euroscepticism in Scotland soars to record high
Survey findings contradict SNP claims that referendum could take Scotland out of EU against its will"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/euroscepticism-scotland-record-high0 -
17% want to leave. It's not exactly a tsunami.AndyJS said:"Euroscepticism in Scotland soars to record high
Survey findings contradict SNP claims that referendum could take Scotland out of EU against its will"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/euroscepticism-scotland-record-high0 -
Not even close to Scottish Tory Surge territory, I agree.Alistair said:
17% want to leave. It's not exactly a tsunami.AndyJS said:"Euroscepticism in Scotland soars to record high
Survey findings contradict SNP claims that referendum could take Scotland out of EU against its will"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/euroscepticism-scotland-record-high 0 -
Hard on the heels of UKIP's latest instalment of Game Of Thrones:
@PickardJE · 21s22 seconds ago
Hearing Ukip members have been warned of dire consequences if they work with Vote Leave campaign rather than Farage-backed Grassroots Out.0 -
Yes indeed. Thing is we have the safety valve of our currency. It may crash at some point, forcing the government to do something. And this is the real problem with the eurozone. There is no safety valve to prevent a massive explosion.DavidL said:
I make the same point about this country. With interest rates at an "emergency" 0.5% for 7 years, a frighteningly large public sector deficit giving a massive Keynesian boost to demand, far more credit available than is good for us and quantitative easing that increased our money base by a significant percentage we are struggling to grow 2.3% this year.taffys said:There's an extraordinary lack of scrutiny in the press on Eurozone monetary policy, it seems to me.
Despite just about the easiest monetary conditions there could ever be in the history of the world ever, the eurozone appears to be going precisely nowhere.
There's absolutely no sense of alarm about this anywhere serious, or questions as to the reasons why there's little growth despite colossal stimulus. Or much speculation as to when and where that growth may re-emerge and what might make it re-emerge.
To use an analogy we have our foot flat on the floor and have had for years but are in constant danger of stalling. Why is this?
There are still huge deflationary pressures from the wind down of 2008, there is still way too much debt depressing demand and our economies are simply too rigid to allow the kind of growth that much of Asia is achieving. We are not in a good place. Better than 2008 but not good, not good at all.
There is an argument that this is not a good time to take the risk of Leaving. There is also an argument that things have to change before they get worse. Take your pick.0 -
It's not a bad quiz, quite nuanced. I'm Boris Johnson, apparently.Wanderer said:
It said I was Nick Clegg. (I'm not actually Nick Clegg, just to clarify.)Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I got LEAVE when I tried this.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-should-vote-eu-referendum-74327340 -
seems like those benefit changes could be reversible:
"The leader of the Socialist and Democrat group, Italian MEP Gianni Pitella, says he hopes that voters in the UK will vote to remain in the EU.
However, he says he regrets that the Council was "held hostage" by the UK's demands at a time when the EU has other problems to solve.
He says he is "not convinced" by the changes relating to social rights - ie benefits changes - and says this area must be "handled with care".
Another UKIP MEP, Gerard Batten, asks to confirm whether the group will seek to change the Commission's proposals that would be tabled after a remain vote.
Mr Pitella replies that the proposals cannot be "pre-empted", and notes that the Parliament would have the right to amend them."0 -
I am sure there is a lot more sex in GoT.AlastairMeeks said:Hard on the heels of UKIP's latest instalment of Game Of Thrones:
@PickardJE · 21s22 seconds ago
Hearing Ukip members have been warned of dire consequences if they work with Vote Leave campaign rather than Farage-backed Grassroots Out.0 -
Norway are to some extent one of our most important partners in Europe thanks to energy deals. It's one of the few trade essentials.0
-
I think that will be widely ignored. We had a mini-conference in Peterborough a few days ago, at which Vote Leave were signing people up.AlastairMeeks said:Hard on the heels of UKIP's latest instalment of Game Of Thrones:
@PickardJE · 21s22 seconds ago
Hearing Ukip members have been warned of dire consequences if they work with Vote Leave campaign rather than Farage-backed Grassroots Out.0 -
The Euro can crash too. The Germans would hate it of course but it is possible.taffys said:
Yes indeed. Thing is we have the safety valve of our currency. It may crash at some point, forcing the government to do something. And this is the real problem with the eurozone. There is no safety valve to prevent a massive explosion.DavidL said:
I make the same point about this country. With interest rates at an "emergency" 0.5% for 7 years, a frighteningly large public sector deficit giving a massive Keynesian boost to demand, far more credit available than is good for us and quantitative easing that increased our money base by a significant percentage we are struggling to grow 2.3% this year.taffys said:There's an extraordinary lack of scrutiny in the press on Eurozone monetary policy, it seems to me.
Despite just about the easiest monetary conditions there could ever be in the history of the world ever, the eurozone appears to be going precisely nowhere.
There's absolutely no sense of alarm about this anywhere serious, or questions as to the reasons why there's little growth despite colossal stimulus. Or much speculation as to when and where that growth may re-emerge and what might make it re-emerge.
To use an analogy we have our foot flat on the floor and have had for years but are in constant danger of stalling. Why is this?
There are still huge deflationary pressures from the wind down of 2008, there is still way too much debt depressing demand and our economies are simply too rigid to allow the kind of growth that much of Asia is achieving. We are not in a good place. Better than 2008 but not good, not good at all.
There is an argument that this is not a good time to take the risk of Leaving. There is also an argument that things have to change before they get worse. Take your pick.0 -
Another reason why Hillary might lose to Trump:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/eileenmyles/hillary-clinton-the-leader-you-want-when-the-world-ends#.hjVo140oKq
"Yet it seems sort of radical now for women who aren’t for Hill to say I’m not voting for someone because they have a vagina. Yeah since 1971 I’ve had the freedom to vote dick, dick, dick. It’s interesting we never put it that way. A man runs. Cock ‘n’ balls. No big deal. We’re not going to mention his genitals. Unless he’s done something illegal. But Hillary has a vagina. Certainly a great misogynistic moment for everyone. She has a vagina. That does not interest me. It interests me. It very much interests me. It especially interests me that she has a killer vagina. "
"I don’t think Hillary has horns though she does have a vagina and wouldn’t you want it sitting on the chair in the Oval Office (not to get all weird) because things will never be the same.
It’s why I ran (against her husband) in 1992. I wanted my vagina on that chair. Now I want Hillary’s there. I want to look back on my time."
That's the entire political platform of Hillary.
Not education, not healthcare, not the economy, not foreign policy, just a vagina.
There is zero appeal for those who are not geriatric feminists.0 -
Surprisingly enough I got Nick Clegg. Remain and make it work. Why, incidentally, Nick? Hasn’t the Mirror caught up?Philip_Thompson said:
I got David Cameron, Remain (but with little joy)Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I got LEAVE when I tried this.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-should-vote-eu-referendum-74327340 -
Guess who in New Jersey ?
xxxxxx 38,
Rubio 11,
Carson 5,
Cruz 10,
Kasich 80 -
Perhaps some of our resident kippers might care to comment?DavidL said:
I am sure there is a lot more sex in GoT.AlastairMeeks said:Hard on the heels of UKIP's latest instalment of Game Of Thrones:
@PickardJE · 21s22 seconds ago
Hearing Ukip members have been warned of dire consequences if they work with Vote Leave campaign rather than Farage-backed Grassroots Out.0 -
I'll break the "don't reply to people who think mass murder of civilians is funny" rule, but are you aware of which country maintains "British" Trident missiles?TheScreamingEagles said:We still have the power to fire our Trident missiles at France. Is all the power I need.
The Trident Commission concluded that were the US to withdraw its "cooperation", British nuclear capability would be non-existent within months. Personally I doubt whether Britain could fire them at all without the OK from the US, but since when has defence policy been public?
0 -
Boris as well.Sean_F said:
It's not a bad quiz, quite nuanced. I'm Boris Johnson, apparently.Wanderer said:
It said I was Nick Clegg. (I'm not actually Nick Clegg, just to clarify.)Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I got LEAVE when I tried this.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-should-vote-eu-referendum-74327340 -
I guess. Sterling might be weak immediately after Brexit, but I think in the long term its problem might more likely be strength, because of a safe haven status.DavidL said:
The Euro can crash too. The Germans would hate it of course but it is possible.taffys said:
Yes indeed. Thing is we have the safety valve of our currency. It may crash at some point, forcing the government to do something. And this is the real problem with the eurozone. There is no safety valve to prevent a massive explosion.DavidL said:
I make the same point about this country. With interest rates at an "emergency" 0.5% for 7 years, a frighteningly large public sector deficit giving a massive Keynesian boost to demand, far more credit available than is good for us and quantitative easing that increased our money base by a significant percentage we are struggling to grow 2.3% this year.taffys said:There's an extraordinary lack of scrutiny in the press on Eurozone monetary policy, it seems to me.
Despite just about the easiest monetary conditions there could ever be in the history of the world ever, the eurozone appears to be going precisely nowhere.
There's absolutely no sense of alarm about this anywhere serious, or questions as to the reasons why there's little growth despite colossal stimulus. Or much speculation as to when and where that growth may re-emerge and what might make it re-emerge.
To use an analogy we have our foot flat on the floor and have had for years but are in constant danger of stalling. Why is this?
There are still huge deflationary pressures from the wind down of 2008, there is still way too much debt depressing demand and our economies are simply too rigid to allow the kind of growth that much of Asia is achieving. We are not in a good place. Better than 2008 but not good, not good at all.
There is an argument that this is not a good time to take the risk of Leaving. There is also an argument that things have to change before they get worse. Take your pick.0 -
And from the other happy ship:
@bbclaurak · 32s32 seconds ago
Hearing after Gove's interview, No 10 has told officials at Ministry of Justice to stop showing him documents that relate to the EU
0 -
Yes.Sean_F said:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014
There was no difference between the two for the Scottish Referendum, however.
ICM and Yougov almost on the mark four months out.
Ipsos miles out.0
This discussion has been closed.