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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There was a similar phone/online polling divide at the last national UK referendum
I get asked several a week at the moment for a view on online phone divide that we’ve seen over the EURef. Which is better I’m asked and I’m reluctant to come down on one side or the other.
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Be LEAVE!
Or it could be the phone and online polls are both wrong, and leave are going to win by a landslide.
Alas, it tallies with my own instinct.
May point out to you that a (future) Directly Elected Dictator of the UK would have far more powers if our country were to leave the EU? If we stayed in, He would have far fewer powers.
If I was a pundit I'd declare it was "all over".
As is, I think there is probably some small value in Remain on the exchange, but I'm not going to bother.
Still thinking 15 percentage points looks a like a good starter...
Apologies to Obi-Wan…
The phones polls showed at the beginning of the campaign the largest AV leads, and by the end the largest FPTP leads:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011
At the beginning they showed AV leads of 12-15 points larger than yougov , and in the end the difference was 6-8 points larger than yougov FPTP leads
There was no difference between the two for the Scottish Referendum, however.
At the zombie review North Yorkshire's 8 seats were all within 5% of the quota IIRC. Unfortunately this time Scarborough & Whitby has just fallen below the lower limit by around 300 votes. The other 7 seats are within 5%.
No 10 apologises to ex-special forces chief for inclusion in EU letter
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/no-10-apologises-special-forces-chief-eu-letter-gen-sir-michael-rose
And they all post here.....
Patience my young Padawan
If you don't trust the UK government to to put the interests of the country as expressed by the people at the pinnacle of their endeavors, then change the government.
It is not in the power of the leave campaign to dictate the terms of leave, and nor should they need to during this period. Suggestions and ideas can be given, but Leave don't have power or authority to enact a program after a leave vote. The government do.
Leave are not (as the SNP were) expecting to form a government.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/marco-rubio-nevada-win-states
Rubio: 'You Don’t Win The Nomination By How Many States You Win'
Seems his campaign thinks he can win without winning.
Just lay the under/over 15 line on here yourself at 10/11 if that's what you think it will be
4/5 over 54.5% (i.e. win by 9%)
10/11 under 54.5%
Realistically I suspect EFTA would be the outcome. If a significant fraction of Leavers want it and almost all Remainers would then a narrow Leave majority would become a significant EFTA majority.
With an EFTA Leave we can take the Swiss route of banning all benefits from illegal immigrants, and making it impossible to get a job here without the right paperwork, which will drop number of illegal immigrants and scroungers to very small numbers rapidly.
Or how about the fact that the Norwegians and others who are in the EFTA have said publicly that they would happily welcome us back into the EFTA?
Is that enough for you?
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.
http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/washington-politics/chris-collins-becomes-first-sitting-member-of-congress-to-endorse-trump-20160224
https://twitter.com/NickGass/status/702523454768156673
Though as Rubio and Bush proved, endorsements and donors don't matter much, it looks like the establishment is ready to throw the towel.
The euro has also become the currency of countries not even in the EU, a bit like those countries that use the US $. It is a major currency of the world and is going nowhere.
From an interview with a Norwegian Secretary of State. I'm sure "fantastic" is the normal words used for imperialism *rolleyes*. You can find others by Norwegians and Icelanders etc all saying the same thing.
Let me get this clear.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
So far as the EEA is concerned the decision makers are not the EFTA countries but the EU. Switzerland is not a part of the EEA but achieves much the same through its bilateral agreement. We could do the same with the EU whether EFTA liked it or not and we almost certainly would given the economic advantages to both sides.
Of course there is no reason at all for EFTA not to like it. With the UK in EFTA they would get pushed around a lot less.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
No it says that politicians think we should stay in the EU for our own interests. It doesn't say we wouldn't be welcome into the EFTA if we chose to leave.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-should-vote-eu-referendum-7432734
A 20 year bet does not seem sensible but if it was I would be happy to take Nick's bet. The compromises of a single currency and interest rate would cause serious damage to the UK. The last 7 years have been unprecedented but we need higher interest rates to keep a cap on our housing market. The damaging booms in Spain and Eire are nothing compared with what would have happened to the UK if we had had a continental interest rate in the years to 2007.
Despite just about the easiest monetary conditions there could ever be in the history of the world ever, the eurozone appears to be going precisely nowhere.
There's absolutely no sense of alarm about this anywhere serious, or questions as to the reasons why there's little growth despite colossal stimulus. Or much speculation as to when and where that growth may re-emerge and what might make it re-emerge.
Re-read what I wrote and not what you imagine I wrote.
Correct.
For years now there has been a certain strand of opinion in the UK that has argued along the lines 'we're in the EU, we don't like some of the things it does, but maybe it will collapse anyway soon so we will be all right'.
This is a delusion, and one that comes from a complete failure to grasp just how strong the political consensus in most EU states is for further integration. Even at the expense of doing economically illogical things.
I vividly remember in the mid-1990s City colleagues of mine laughing off my concerns about the UK joining EMU on the basis that 'we all know it won't happen anyway' and poring over the so-called 'Convergence Criteria' to prove their point. A few conversations with people in the know in our neighbour countries would have made it clear these criteria were for show only, and so it proved.
We have to make our own destiny in this matter, not rely on decisions elsewhere to make it for us.
They are trying to do it the other way around.
There are Norwegian politicians who want us back in EFTA. And in the same article I read that there are other Norwegian politicians who wants us to stay in the EU.
If that's the best you can do, Philip, I doubt even you, in your heart of hearts, regard it as a ringing endorsement.
Your a parody of yourself sometimes, he quotes a guy saying: and you think it's a bit lukewarm ? "Is that best you can do?"
Are you serious, what is he supposed to do, get photos of the politician dancing around the room at the idea ? Naming his firstborn "UKinEFTA" ?
Are you serious, what is he supposed to do, get photos of the politician dancing around the room at the idea ? Naming his firstborn "UKinEFTA" ?
Selective quotation. Yes, one of the politicians quoted said what you said. Another one said that Britain should stay in the EU.
To use an old cliche, "The world doesn't owe us a living", and most of the rest of it is working harder for their money than we are.
It isn't happening, because we're nowhere near the final polls. For the past two months, the phone results have been changing much faster than the online ones, though. In the direction of Leave.
In case anyone hasn't worked it out yet, the reason why Cameron expressed his contempt today for Jeremy Corbyn not wearing a "proper suit", not knotting his tie higher, and showing near-traitorously insufficient love for the royal family, Purdey rifles and the principle of hereditary wealth and power, is not that he felt like it or because the opportunity arose.
Let's say it. The "round up the single mothers, oiks and scroungers, spread tuberculosis among those we don't want to employ as cleaners or personal servants, and put Romanians back on the boat at Dover, and who cares whether it sinks?" base of the Tory party is set to have a field day over the coming four months of the referendum campaign.
Marketeers working for Remain don't want to lose all those who have such a mentality to Leave. That simply wouldn't do. It wouldn't do at all.
Prediction: we'll get more of the same. They're not going to let Leave run off with the obnoxiousness card. Soames, where are you, my man? Job for you!
Survey findings contradict SNP claims that referendum could take Scotland out of EU against its will"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/euroscepticism-scotland-record-high
To use an analogy we have our foot flat on the floor and have had for years but are in constant danger of stalling. Why is this?
There are still huge deflationary pressures from the wind down of 2008, there is still way too much debt depressing demand and our economies are simply too rigid to allow the kind of growth that much of Asia is achieving. We are not in a good place. Better than 2008 but not good, not good at all.
There is an argument that this is not a good time to take the risk of Leaving. There is also an argument that things have to change before they get worse. Take your pick.
Suspect that you will either need to cross the river - "Putney and Fulham" - or screw up Lambeth/Southwark or Croydon to shift seats across somewhere else.
@PickardJE · 21s22 seconds ago
Hearing Ukip members have been warned of dire consequences if they work with Vote Leave campaign rather than Farage-backed Grassroots Out.
"The leader of the Socialist and Democrat group, Italian MEP Gianni Pitella, says he hopes that voters in the UK will vote to remain in the EU.
However, he says he regrets that the Council was "held hostage" by the UK's demands at a time when the EU has other problems to solve.
He says he is "not convinced" by the changes relating to social rights - ie benefits changes - and says this area must be "handled with care".
Another UKIP MEP, Gerard Batten, asks to confirm whether the group will seek to change the Commission's proposals that would be tabled after a remain vote.
Mr Pitella replies that the proposals cannot be "pre-empted", and notes that the Parliament would have the right to amend them."
http://www.buzzfeed.com/eileenmyles/hillary-clinton-the-leader-you-want-when-the-world-ends#.hjVo140oKq
"Yet it seems sort of radical now for women who aren’t for Hill to say I’m not voting for someone because they have a vagina. Yeah since 1971 I’ve had the freedom to vote dick, dick, dick. It’s interesting we never put it that way. A man runs. Cock ‘n’ balls. No big deal. We’re not going to mention his genitals. Unless he’s done something illegal. But Hillary has a vagina. Certainly a great misogynistic moment for everyone. She has a vagina. That does not interest me. It interests me. It very much interests me. It especially interests me that she has a killer vagina. "
"I don’t think Hillary has horns though she does have a vagina and wouldn’t you want it sitting on the chair in the Oval Office (not to get all weird) because things will never be the same.
It’s why I ran (against her husband) in 1992. I wanted my vagina on that chair. Now I want Hillary’s there. I want to look back on my time."
That's the entire political platform of Hillary.
Not education, not healthcare, not the economy, not foreign policy, just a vagina.
There is zero appeal for those who are not geriatric feminists.
xxxxxx 38,
Rubio 11,
Carson 5,
Cruz 10,
Kasich 8
The Trident Commission concluded that were the US to withdraw its "cooperation", British nuclear capability would be non-existent within months. Personally I doubt whether Britain could fire them at all without the OK from the US, but since when has defence policy been public?
@bbclaurak · 32s32 seconds ago
Hearing after Gove's interview, No 10 has told officials at Ministry of Justice to stop showing him documents that relate to the EU
But it doesn't vote till June or late May.
ICM and Yougov almost on the mark four months out.
Ipsos miles out.