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System · February 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From today’s campaigning exactly four months before Britain votes

An “Out” video

Read the full story here

stjohn · February 2016

First in.

Primus Inter Pares - as Boris might say.

Freggles · February 2016

Second, like LEAVE.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

Someone put a muzzle on Leave.EU or there is only one possible outcome, a Remain vote.

Part of me thinks Farage would rather lose the referendum and stick on the anti-EU (but in the EU) gravy train and is doing what he can to sabotage it. This can not be the antics of people seriously trying to win.

GeoffM · February 2016

My Pound will turn into PacMan.
That's so retro cool it's amazing.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

runnymede said:
'but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy'

Only a small part of the decline since November is linked to Brexit jitters, amounting to perhaps a few percent. The rest is down to shifts in interest rate expectations.

The Brexit effect is trivial in the context of the swings you can get in FX markets.
Indeed we were forecast this time last year to raise rates before or at the same time as the Fed. Now the Fed is raising theirs and we are holding ours down, so a shift in FX is inevitable.
I pointed this out to you last night. Up until Autumn last year, interest rates were predicted to rise during 2016. Then the BOE pointed out that "forward guidance" was more-or-less bullcrap, and the prediction reversed to low-thru-2016-and-probably-longer. Now with the Brexit fears, GBP is quietly collapsing against USD and some of the wilder predictions see it hitting $1.20, which is lower than the 2008/9 recession and (as @JohnMoney pointed out last night) is back to levels last seen in the mid-1980's, when interest rates were 14%. If it hits that level then interest rates will have to rise.

You can't legitimately dismiss £1=$1.20 as a "market correction" or part of normal market volatility, it's an exceptional event that should be given its full measure.

You were wrong last night and you're still wrong now. The change in FX rates is mostly an effect of not raising interest rates, not a primary cause in raising them. We aren't raising ours despite full employment due to the risk of deflation which is crippling to an economy - see Japan and the Yen. A fall in the pound (caused by the dollar being more attractive due to rising Fed rates) helps avoid deflation thus removing the reason for too-low interest rates.

It is all part and parcel of having a freely floating exchange rate. If we were suffering from inflation rather than at risk of deflation we'd have reason for concern.

murali_s · February 2016

Is this the best that leave can do? LOL

Pong · February 2016

That's a parody video, right?

rottenborough · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
Someone put a muzzle on Leave.EU or there is only one possible outcome, a Remain vote.

Part of me thinks Farage would rather lose the referendum and stick on the anti-EU (but in the EU) gravy train and is doing what he can to sabotage it. This can not be the antics of people seriously trying to win.

Have to say I have wondered the same thing. He'll be completely redundant if Leave wins.

Freggles · February 2016

I went to a hustings before the election with one of my mates where Mandy (the Singing Kipper of the top video) was the UKIP candidate.

She told us to stop laughing after she tried to relate the first question to immigration within seconds of opening her mouth

saddened · February 2016

That video, is it genuine or a piss poor parody?

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

Freggles said:
I went to a hustings before the election with one of my mates where Mandy (the Singing Kipper of the top video) was the UKIP candidate.

She told us to stop laughing after she tried to relate the first question to immigration within seconds of opening her mouth

And people wonder why UKIP only got one MP elected (who wants nothing to do with this Leave.EU rabble himself). Maybe UKIP should pay a tad more attention to the MP who can get himself elected and less to these off-putting attention whores.

Freggles · February 2016

saddened said:
That video, is it genuine or a piss poor parody?

It's genuine. She stood at Stockton North in the 2015 election and is a local councillor, and it's not the first time she has uploaded a song to YouTube.

If she's a plant for REMAIN then that is one hell of a long game to be playing

dr_spyn · February 2016

Perhaps Leave need to do something a bit more catchy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXcLVDhS8fM

Luckyguy1983 · February 2016

I LOVE the video - I'm delighted these two doughty ladies have chosen to express their democratic opinion in such a creative way, you'd have to be a terminally dried up curmudgeon to think otherwise. Taken all our fish INDEED - let's hope it goes viral.

Danny565 · February 2016

Christ, I really am so bored of this already. Can't we have the Referendum this Thursday?

saddened · February 2016

Freggles said:

saddened said:
That video, is it genuine or a piss poor parody?
It's genuine. She stood at Stockton North in the 2015 election and is a local councillor, and it's not the first time she has uploaded a song to YouTube.

If she's a plant for REMAIN then that is one hell of a long game to be playing

Kin' ell, by any standard that's poor.

Pulpstar · February 2016

Danny565 said:
Christ, I really am so bored of this already. Can't we have the Referendum this Thursday?

Donald Trump is much more interesting.

AndyJS · February 2016

Danny565 said:
Christ, I really am so bored of this already. Can't we have the Referendum this Thursday?

We could have an AV thread instead...

DavidL · February 2016

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Someone put a muzzle on Leave.EU or there is only one possible outcome, a Remain vote.

Part of me thinks Farage would rather lose the referendum and stick on the anti-EU (but in the EU) gravy train and is doing what he can to sabotage it. This can not be the antics of people seriously trying to win.
Have to say I have wondered the same thing. He'll be completely redundant if Leave wins.

Indeed. The one sure loss of employment from Leave is MEPs.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

FPT

flightpath01 said:
What is stupid by the leavers is that they are saying 'so what?', they are brazening it that it might or would not happen. Can they tell us the names of all the companies which would fall over themselves to leave the EU to come here or who would flock to here to be outside the EU and not inside?
Leave are trying to make out that leaving is a shot to nothing a free hit. It is the opposite.
And the safeguard of leave the EU and all the politics stuff behind and join the EEA, which is at least plausible? Why surprise surprise - so what? It makes no difference we still have free movement of labour which is the mast the leavers have tied themselves to.
The rancid wing of the Leavers do not want the EEA, their demands will only just start if leave were to win.

EFTA countries:
Liechtenstein GDP per capita $134,617.38
Norway GDP per capita $100,818.50
Switzerland GDP per capita $84,815.41
Iceland GDP per capita $47,461.19

Other English speaking countries:
Australia GDP per capita $67,458.36
USA GDP per capita $53,041.98
Canada GDP per capita $51,958.38
New Zealand GDP per capita $41,555.83

UK GDP per capita $41,787.47

Inside the EU we are doing worse than every single EFTA country and all English-speaking countries bar New Zealand (whom we are at almost a statistical tie with). I see no reason why outside the EU we can't do at least as well as the likes of Canada, Australia etc at the very least. Do you?

Unanimously the EFTA nations are more prosperous than we are. That speaks volumes.

jayfdee · February 2016

saddened said:
That video, is it genuine or a piss poor parody?

Genuine,or piss poor? Both I think. It would get null points in Eurovision.

RobD · February 2016

Vote remain or the pound gets it?

Mortimer · February 2016

The pound less 20% looks quite like a euro....

dr_spyn · February 2016

RobD said:
Vote remain or the pound gets it?

Vote Remain or the bunny brexit.

GIN1138 · February 2016

RobD said:
Vote remain or the pound gets it?

Vote Leave or they'll take your Pound!

another_richard · February 2016

It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=2Y

perhaps they could remind us how much UK interest rates have risen during that period ?

Further back the fall in the sterling exchange rate of both 2008 and 1992 was followed by interest rate cuts not rises:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Documents/rates/baserate.pdf

Now if you want to discuss the hypothetical effects of a hypothetical fall in the sterling exchange rate then the main one would be the boost to exports and the rising cost of imported goods.

As inflation is so low at present I would suggest that any increases in the cost of imports could be easily accepted and would be certainly worth it to give the boost to the UK's export industries.

DavidL · February 2016

Leave looks a very sensible response to those 3 doesn't it? Any room, any meeting, anything. Just leave. You would wouldn't you?

jayfdee · February 2016

Well in the opening skirmishes the LEAVE team (I use the word team in a general meaning) have not had a good start.
For the avoidance of doubt, I am definitely undecided, but have moved from a BJ supporter to a not a BJ supporter.
I have heard BJ speak live a few times, and he can definitely engage the audience, but he is out of order this time,he could have handled it much better.
Cameron performed well in yesterdays debate, and BJ deserved a slap.

rcs1000 · February 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:
I LOVE the video - I'm delighted these two doughty ladies have chosen to express their democratic opinion in such a creative way, you'd have to be a terminally dried up curmudgeon to think otherwise. Taken all our fish INDEED - let's hope it goes viral.

I must admit I also love the video. It's genuine and heartfelt, and much better than any ridiculous corporate, Saatchi & Saatchi produced, bullshit.

Three cheers for the two ladies!

Luckyguy1983 · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
Someone put a muzzle on Leave.EU or there is only one possible outcome, a Remain vote.

Part of me thinks Farage would rather lose the referendum and stick on the anti-EU (but in the EU) gravy train and is doing what he can to sabotage it. This can not be the antics of people seriously trying to win.

You're taking this video WAY too seriously. A woman decided to make a video to the tune of 3 lions - good for her - when's the last time you put that much effort into promoting a deeply held political view that you hold?

Richard_Nabavi · February 2016

Which side produced that picture of Boris, Galloway and Farage? My first reaction was that it was a Remain ad.

JackW · February 2016

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

Charles said:

Dixie said:
Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.
And, if I recall correctly, you are a loyal and hard-working Tory activist.

Cameron needs to remember that he's just the tenant, not the owner of the Tory party
Perhaps you might remember that Cameron delivered a majority government, delivered a referendum and delivered a free vote to the Cabinet and MP's.

All events that many Conservatives thought unlikely.

Conservative LEAVE have nothing to complain about save that they have invested so much on their hopes that are likely to be dashed and blame Cameron for it.

But that's politics for you.
What margin does your ARSE predict for Remain?

I'm still pulling the cheeks together.

The first EuroARSE projections will be issued is about a week or so.

Scott_P · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
Part of me thinks Farage would rather lose the referendum and stick on the anti-EU (but in the EU) gravy train and is doing what he can to sabotage it.

The Alex Salmond option as it is known

rcs1000 · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
flightpath01 said:
What is stupid by the leavers is that they are saying 'so what?', they are brazening it that it might or would not happen. Can they tell us the names of all the companies which would fall over themselves to leave the EU to come here or who would flock to here to be outside the EU and not inside?
Leave are trying to make out that leaving is a shot to nothing a free hit. It is the opposite.
And the safeguard of leave the EU and all the politics stuff behind and join the EEA, which is at least plausible? Why surprise surprise - so what? It makes no difference we still have free movement of labour which is the mast the leavers have tied themselves to.
The rancid wing of the Leavers do not want the EEA, their demands will only just start if leave were to win.

EFTA countries:
Liechtenstein GDP per capita $134,617.38
Norway GDP per capita $100,818.50
Switzerland GDP per capita $84,815.41
Iceland GDP per capita $47,461.19

Other English speaking countries:
Australia GDP per capita $67,458.36
USA GDP per capita $53,041.98
Canada GDP per capita $51,958.38
New Zealand GDP per capita $41,555.83

UK GDP per capita $41,787.47

Inside the EU we are doing worse than every single EFTA country and all English-speaking countries bar New Zealand (whom we are at almost a statistical tie with). I see no reason why outside the EU we can't do at least as well as the likes of Canada, Australia etc at the very least. Do you?

Unanimously the EFTA nations are more prosperous than we are. That speaks volumes.

As an EFTA/EEA supporter, I'd point out that you can't really compare Norway, Australia and Canada to the UK. All are commodity exporters, blessed with absurd abundance of oil, gas, and other natural resources. We've just gone through a 15 year commodities bull market, and it is no surprise that all three of these countries have done extremely well.

The best comparison to the UK, really, should be Switzerland.

FrancisUrquhart · February 2016

Both campaigns addressing key issues with facts (not) I see....

SimonStClare · February 2016

Why is Boris, pictured holding a brick? – well, someone had to ask…

Luckyguy1983 · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
I LOVE the video - I'm delighted these two doughty ladies have chosen to express their democratic opinion in such a creative way, you'd have to be a terminally dried up curmudgeon to think otherwise. Taken all our fish INDEED - let's hope it goes viral.
I must admit I also love the video. It's genuine and heartfelt, and much better than any ridiculous corporate, Saatchi & Saatchi produced, bullshit.

Three cheers for the two ladies!

I now think (after a couple of viewings) it's the same lady in a wig via the magic of trick photography! But that doesn't diminish your point.

Leave Ladies for the win!

Casino_Royale · February 2016

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

Charles said:

Dixie said:
Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.
And, if I recall correctly, you are a loyal and hard-working Tory activist.

Cameron needs to remember that he's just the tenant, not the owner of the Tory party
Perhaps you might remember that Cameron delivered a majority government, delivered a referendum and delivered a free vote to the Cabinet and MP's.

All events that many Conservatives thought unlikely.

Conservative LEAVE have nothing to complain about save that they have invested so much on their hopes that are likely to be dashed and blame Cameron for it.

But that's politics for you.
What margin does your ARSE predict for Remain?
I'm still pulling the cheeks together.

The first EuroARSE projections will be issued is about a week or so.

Thanks! :-)

Bob__Sykes · February 2016

Having now seen that GO video, I'm edging ever more firmly into the Remain camp!

Bejaysus!

Theuniondivvie · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
flightpath01 said:
What is stupid by the leavers is that they are saying 'so what?', they are brazening it that it might or would not happen. Can they tell us the names of all the companies which would fall over themselves to leave the EU to come here or who would flock to here to be outside the EU and not inside?
Leave are trying to make out that leaving is a shot to nothing a free hit. It is the opposite.
And the safeguard of leave the EU and all the politics stuff behind and join the EEA, which is at least plausible? Why surprise surprise - so what? It makes no difference we still have free movement of labour which is the mast the leavers have tied themselves to.
The rancid wing of the Leavers do not want the EEA, their demands will only just start if leave were to win.

EFTA countries:
Liechtenstein GDP per capita $134,617.38
Norway GDP per capita $100,818.50
Switzerland GDP per capita $84,815.41
Iceland GDP per capita $47,461.19

Other English speaking countries:
Australia GDP per capita $67,458.36
USA GDP per capita $53,041.98
Canada GDP per capita $51,958.38
New Zealand GDP per capita $41,555.83

UK GDP per capita $41,787.47

Inside the EU we are doing worse than every single EFTA country and all English-speaking countries bar New Zealand (whom we are at almost a statistical tie with). I see no reason why outside the EU we can't do at least as well as the likes of Canada, Australia etc at the very least. Do you?

Unanimously the EFTA nations are more prosperous than we are. That speaks volumes.

Why is the UK wrt GDP doing worse than Germany, France, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and Finland?

welshowl · February 2016

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

Charles said:

Dixie said:
Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.
And, if I recall correctly, you are a loyal and hard-working Tory activist.

Cameron needs to remember that he's just the tenant, not the owner of the Tory party
Perhaps you might remember that Cameron delivered a majority government, delivered a referendum and delivered a free vote to the Cabinet and MP's.

All events that many Conservatives thought unlikely.

Conservative LEAVE have nothing to complain about save that they have invested so much on their hopes that are likely to be dashed and blame Cameron for it.

But that's politics for you.
What margin does your ARSE predict for Remain?
I'm still pulling the cheeks together.

The first EuroARSE projections will be issued is about a week or so.

Is a EuroARSE a calCULation of the odds?

Mortimer · February 2016

My favourite PB poster reaction is still the 'Fire up the Quattro' rubbish from Labour.

I can well imagine the Labourites sitting in a room convinced that everyone detests that awful, awful Gene Hunt man. I mean, he beats people up AND doesnt do any paperwork, what?

Anyone know which thread that was? I'd love to reread the comments....

rcs1000 · February 2016

Mortimer said:
The pound less 20% looks quite like a euro....

The pound less 20% is - literally - a Euro.

AndyJS · February 2016

Labour MPs supporting Leave according to the Guardian:

Frank Field
Gisela Stuart
Ronnie Campbell
Roger Godsiff
Kate Hoey
Kelvin Hopkins
Khalid Mahmood
Graham Stringer

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/feb/23/how-will-your-mp-vote-in-the-eu-referendum

Casino_Royale · February 2016

Trust Mike to post three Remain adverts in one thread header!

I see Leave.EU are still making Galloway their special guest.

Honestly, I truly hope they are deserted by the sensible.

rcs1000 · February 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
I LOVE the video - I'm delighted these two doughty ladies have chosen to express their democratic opinion in such a creative way, you'd have to be a terminally dried up curmudgeon to think otherwise. Taken all our fish INDEED - let's hope it goes viral.
I must admit I also love the video. It's genuine and heartfelt, and much better than any ridiculous corporate, Saatchi & Saatchi produced, bullshit.

Three cheers for the two ladies!
I now think (after a couple of viewings) it's the same lady in a wig via the magic of trick photography! But that doesn't diminish your point.

Leave Ladies for the win!

A couple of viewings; you must be keen

Casino_Royale · February 2016

Those two ladies aren't exactly Bananarama, are they?

rcs1000 · February 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Someone put a muzzle on Leave.EU or there is only one possible outcome, a Remain vote.

Part of me thinks Farage would rather lose the referendum and stick on the anti-EU (but in the EU) gravy train and is doing what he can to sabotage it. This can not be the antics of people seriously trying to win.
You're taking this video WAY too seriously. A woman decided to make a video to the tune of 3 lions - good for her - when's the last time you put that much effort into promoting a deeply held political view that you hold?

As an aside, I'd reckon there is about a 0.005% chance that anyone will put out a pro-EU video to the sound track of... err... anything at all

Big_G_NorthWales · February 2016

Time to watch Arsenal v Barca

rcs1000 · February 2016

Casino_Royale said:
Trust Mike to post three Remain adverts in one thread header!

I see Leave.EU are still making Galloway their special guest.

Honestly, I truly hope they are deserted by the sensible.

Unbelievable. I'm beginning to think Aaron is working for the EU.

Mortimer · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:
The pound less 20% looks quite like a euro....
The pound less 20% is - literally - a Euro.

Hmm. Must be a conspiracy. How long does the Euro have left before it disappears?

Luckyguy1983 · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
I LOVE the video - I'm delighted these two doughty ladies have chosen to express their democratic opinion in such a creative way, you'd have to be a terminally dried up curmudgeon to think otherwise. Taken all our fish INDEED - let's hope it goes viral.
I must admit I also love the video. It's genuine and heartfelt, and much better than any ridiculous corporate, Saatchi & Saatchi produced, bullshit.

Three cheers for the two ladies!
I now think (after a couple of viewings) it's the same lady in a wig via the magic of trick photography! But that doesn't diminish your point.

Leave Ladies for the win!
A couple of viewings; you must be keen

It's CATCHY!

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

SimonStClare said:
Why is Boris, pictured holding a brick? – well, someone had to ask…

Is from his conference speech a few years ago (and someone at Leave is a Father Jack fan)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11130504/Boris-tells-brick-You-will-not-be-alone.html

welshowl · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:
The pound less 20% looks quite like a euro....
The pound less 20% is - literally - a Euro.

For some of us it would be a Godsend!

JackW · February 2016

welshowl said:

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

Charles said:

Dixie said:
Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.
And, if I recall correctly, you are a loyal and hard-working Tory activist.

Cameron needs to remember that he's just the tenant, not the owner of the Tory party
Perhaps you might remember that Cameron delivered a majority government, delivered a referendum and delivered a free vote to the Cabinet and MP's.

All events that many Conservatives thought unlikely.

Conservative LEAVE have nothing to complain about save that they have invested so much on their hopes that are likely to be dashed and blame Cameron for it.

But that's politics for you.
What margin does your ARSE predict for Remain?
I'm still pulling the cheeks together.

The first EuroARSE projections will be issued is about a week or so.
Is a EuroARSE a calCULation of the odds?

The ARSE in its various forms is as it ever was - simply the greatest political predictor in the history of humankind .

"Never Knowingly Undersold"

david_herdson · February 2016

I tried to watch the video but I'm sorry, rhyming 'begun' with 'before' is just too much.

If you're going to parody a classic, don't just drop in lines from the original that don't fit!

david_herdson · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:
The pound less 20% looks quite like a euro....
The pound less 20% is - literally - a Euro.

No, it's literally 80p.

Alanbrooke · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:
Why is Boris, pictured holding a brick? – well, someone had to ask…
Is from his conference speech a few years ago (and someone at Leave is a Father Jack fan)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11130504/Boris-tells-brick-You-will-not-be-alone.html

well spotted. Farage DRINK, George FECK, Boris GIRLS

John_M · February 2016

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
flightpath01 said:
What is stupid by the leavers is that they are saying 'so what?', they are brazening it that it might or would not happen. Can they tell us the names of all the companies which would fall over themselves to leave the EU to come here or who would flock to here to be outside the EU and not inside?
Leave are trying to make out that leaving is a shot to nothing a free hit. It is the opposite.
And the safeguard of leave the EU and all the politics stuff behind and join the EEA, which is at least plausible? Why surprise surprise - so what? It makes no difference we still have free movement of labour which is the mast the leavers have tied themselves to.
The rancid wing of the Leavers do not want the EEA, their demands will only just start if leave were to win.

EFTA countries:
Liechtenstein GDP per capita $134,617.38
Norway GDP per capita $100,818.50
Switzerland GDP per capita $84,815.41
Iceland GDP per capita $47,461.19

Other English speaking countries:
Australia GDP per capita $67,458.36
USA GDP per capita $53,041.98
Canada GDP per capita $51,958.38
New Zealand GDP per capita $41,555.83

UK GDP per capita $41,787.47

Inside the EU we are doing worse than every single EFTA country and all English-speaking countries bar New Zealand (whom we are at almost a statistical tie with). I see no reason why outside the EU we can't do at least as well as the likes of Canada, Australia etc at the very least. Do you?

Unanimously the EFTA nations are more prosperous than we are. That speaks volumes.
Why is the UK wrt GDP doing worse than Germany, France, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and Finland?

According to the IMF's 2014 figures, the UK is #7 for GDP per capita within the EU. It's behind Luxembourg, Denmark, Ireland, Austria, Netherlands and Germany.

another_richard · February 2016

viewcode said:

I pointed this out to you last night. Up until Autumn last year, interest rates were predicted to rise during 2016. Then the BOE pointed out that "forward guidance" was more-or-less bullcrap, and the prediction reversed to low-thru-2016-and-probably-longer. Now with the Brexit fears, GBP is quietly collapsing against USD and some of the wilder predictions see it hitting $1.20, which is lower than the 2008/9 recession and (as @JohnMoney pointed out last night) is back to levels last seen in the mid-1980's, when interest rates were 14%. If it hits that level then interest rates will have to rise.

You can't legitimately dismiss £1=$1.20 as a "market correction" or part of normal market volatility, it's an exceptional event that should be given its full measure.

Highest BoE interest rate:

1979 17.000%
1980 17.000%
1981 15.125%
1982 14.375%
1983 11.000%
1984 12.000%
1985 13.875%
1986 12.375%
1987 10.875%
1988 12.875%
1989 14.875%
1990 14.875%

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Documents/rates/baserate.pdf

Perhaps viewcode could tell us what were so unusual about the interest rates of mid 1980s compared to those to the early and late 1980s ?

RobD · February 2016

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:
The pound less 20% looks quite like a euro....
The pound less 20% is - literally - a Euro.
No, it's literally 80p.

Isn't it literally a 'ound', or a 'poun'?

Jonathan · February 2016

That video is totally nuts. Is it Plato and Casino Royale?

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

Eesh. That video, has to be the worst musical offering since Joe Dolce.

The feckers have managed to ruin the memory of the summer of 96 for me too.

Scott_P · February 2016

RobD said:
Isn't it literally a 'ound', or a 'poun'?

Why not a Pond?

Casino_Royale · February 2016

Bob__Sykes said:
Having now seen that GO video, I'm edging ever more firmly into the Remain camp!

Bejaysus!

Straighten yourself up man!

Over half the backbenches and half the activists are supporting Leave, and it's growing all the time.

Luckyguy1983 · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Someone put a muzzle on Leave.EU or there is only one possible outcome, a Remain vote.

Part of me thinks Farage would rather lose the referendum and stick on the anti-EU (but in the EU) gravy train and is doing what he can to sabotage it. This can not be the antics of people seriously trying to win.
You're taking this video WAY too seriously. A woman decided to make a video to the tune of 3 lions - good for her - when's the last time you put that much effort into promoting a deeply held political view that you hold?

As an aside, I'd reckon there is about a 0.005% chance that anyone will put out a pro-EU video to the sound track of... err... anything at all

That's a shame, I was really looking forward to '3 million jobs' intoned ad nauseum over the tune of Ode to Joy.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:
Why is Boris, pictured holding a brick? – well, someone had to ask…
Is from his conference speech a few years ago (and someone at Leave is a Father Jack fan)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11130504/Boris-tells-brick-You-will-not-be-alone.html
well spotted. Farage DRINK, George FECK, Boris GIRLS

That video is My Lovely Horse?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · February 2016

Having now watched the 'coming home' video.
IMO (Not that I have ever produced a pop video)
They would have been far better doing a Peter Kay 'Amarillo' style vid with them walking in front of various UK icons, Stonehenge etc.

SimonStClare · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:
Why is Boris, pictured holding a brick? – well, someone had to ask…
Is from his conference speech a few years ago (and someone at Leave is a Father Jack fan)

Thanks – that’s got to be worth 50 political geek points!

Casino_Royale · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Trust Mike to post three Remain adverts in one thread header!

I see Leave.EU are still making Galloway their special guest.

Honestly, I truly hope they are deserted by the sensible.
Unbelievable. I'm beginning to think Aaron is working for the EU.

I think he's just an egotistical prick.

Jonathan · February 2016

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Having now watched the 'coming home' video.
IMO (Not that I have ever produced a pop video)
They would have been far better doing a Peter Kay 'Amarillo' style vid with them walking in front of various UK icons, Stonehenge etc.

They would have been far better off unplugging the camera.

rcs1000 · February 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Someone put a muzzle on Leave.EU or there is only one possible outcome, a Remain vote.

Part of me thinks Farage would rather lose the referendum and stick on the anti-EU (but in the EU) gravy train and is doing what he can to sabotage it. This can not be the antics of people seriously trying to win.
You're taking this video WAY too seriously. A woman decided to make a video to the tune of 3 lions - good for her - when's the last time you put that much effort into promoting a deeply held political view that you hold?

As an aside, I'd reckon there is about a 0.005% chance that anyone will put out a pro-EU video to the sound track of... err... anything at all
That's a shame, I was really looking forward to '3 million jobs' intoned ad nauseum over the tune of Ode to Joy.

Oooohhhh... autotune, Nick Clegg and Ode to Joy.

If I didn't have an actual job, I might go for that...

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
flightpath01 said:
What is stupid by the leavers is that they are saying 'so what?', they are brazening it that it might or would not happen. Can they tell us the names of all the companies which would fall over themselves to leave the EU to come here or who would flock to here to be outside the EU and not inside?
Leave are trying to make out that leaving is a shot to nothing a free hit. It is the opposite.
And the safeguard of leave the EU and all the politics stuff behind and join the EEA, which is at least plausible? Why surprise surprise - so what? It makes no difference we still have free movement of labour which is the mast the leavers have tied themselves to.
The rancid wing of the Leavers do not want the EEA, their demands will only just start if leave were to win.

EFTA countries:
Liechtenstein GDP per capita $134,617.38
Norway GDP per capita $100,818.50
Switzerland GDP per capita $84,815.41
Iceland GDP per capita $47,461.19

Other English speaking countries:
Australia GDP per capita $67,458.36
USA GDP per capita $53,041.98
Canada GDP per capita $51,958.38
New Zealand GDP per capita $41,555.83

UK GDP per capita $41,787.47

Inside the EU we are doing worse than every single EFTA country and all English-speaking countries bar New Zealand (whom we are at almost a statistical tie with). I see no reason why outside the EU we can't do at least as well as the likes of Canada, Australia etc at the very least. Do you?

Unanimously the EFTA nations are more prosperous than we are. That speaks volumes.
Why is the UK wrt GDP doing worse than Germany, France, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and Finland?

Germany - Like us they are also doing worse than all those other nations except New Zealand
France - We're almost certainly better than them already, we've been growing faster than them for years and when figures get updated we will have overtaken them. Again doing worse than the comparables.
Ireland - Been competing with low corporation taxes despite not because of the EU. Stagnating for years. Still worse than all comparables bar Iceland and New Zealand.
Netherlands, Austria, Belgium - Stagnating for years. Still worse than all comparables bar Iceland and New Zealand.
Luxembourg - Microstate.

Sweden, Denmark and Finland - The Scandinavians are actually doing well. Nowhere near as well as Norway but they are doing well and actually growing.

So other than the Scandinavians and Luxembourg it's not really an advert for success.

Alanbrooke · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:
Why is Boris, pictured holding a brick? – well, someone had to ask…
Is from his conference speech a few years ago (and someone at Leave is a Father Jack fan)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11130504/Boris-tells-brick-You-will-not-be-alone.html
well spotted. Farage DRINK, George FECK, Boris GIRLS
That video is My Lovely Horse?

Easy for you to say, my relations could pass for the cast.

Off to Waterford this weekend begorrah.

viewcode · February 2016

another_richard said:
It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates...

I cannot, even by omission, allow you to imply that I am doing this at the bidding of someone else. I assure you I am not.

another_richard said:
...don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years...

GBP fell from about $2/€1.5 immediately before the 2008/9 recession to about $1.35/€1.08 in very short order, then stayed pretty low for some time, then when Draghi announced the whole Europrinty thing it began to go back up and peaked at about $1.74/€1.45 about two years ago, then the US recovery began to move ahead of UK/EU and US interest rates rose last year, causing GBP/USD to drift downwards to about £1.44/€1.30. Brexit fears are now beginning to further depress it and it now stands at about $1.40/€1.27

I realise quite a bit. Me read. Someday me tie my own shoelaces...

another_richard said:
perhaps they could remind us how much UK interest rates have risen during that period [last two years]?...Further back the fall in the sterling exchange rate of both 2008 and 1992 was followed by interest rate cuts not rises:

Are you genuinely implying that a drop of GDP to $1.20 will be met by an interest rate cut?

rcs1000 · February 2016

John_M said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
flightpath01 said:
What is stupid by the leavers is that they are saying 'so what?', they are brazening it that it might or would not happen. Can they tell us the names of all the companies which would fall over themselves to leave the EU to come here or who would flock to here to be outside the EU and not inside?
Leave are trying to make out that leaving is a shot to nothing a free hit. It is the opposite.
And the safeguard of leave the EU and all the politics stuff behind and join the EEA, which is at least plausible? Why surprise surprise - so what? It makes no difference we still have free movement of labour which is the mast the leavers have tied themselves to.
The rancid wing of the Leavers do not want the EEA, their demands will only just start if leave were to win.

EFTA countries:
Liechtenstein GDP per capita $134,617.38
Norway GDP per capita $100,818.50
Switzerland GDP per capita $84,815.41
Iceland GDP per capita $47,461.19

Other English speaking countries:
Australia GDP per capita $67,458.36
USA GDP per capita $53,041.98
Canada GDP per capita $51,958.38
New Zealand GDP per capita $41,555.83

UK GDP per capita $41,787.47

Inside the EU we are doing worse than every single EFTA country and all English-speaking countries bar New Zealand (whom we are at almost a statistical tie with). I see no reason why outside the EU we can't do at least as well as the likes of Canada, Australia etc at the very least. Do you?

Unanimously the EFTA nations are more prosperous than we are. That speaks volumes.
Why is the UK wrt GDP doing worse than Germany, France, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and Finland?
According to the IMF's 2014 figures, the UK is #7 for GDP per capita within the EU. It's behind Luxembourg, Denmark, Ireland, Austria, Netherlands and Germany.

Sweden and Finland have higher GDP per capita than we do, and are both in the EU.

Steven_Whaley · February 2016

Repost from end of previous thread:

Casino_Royale said:

Except the split of elected members matches the grassroots.

That is a really good point.

And, in all fairness, it's a split which reasonably closely matches the general population too. The Conservatives are having a very public version of the same debate that is going on in private in households and workplaces up and down the country.

I don't know if the split will do the Conservatives lasting damage or not - but it shouldn't unless the general public are total hypocrites. All of us out in the real world have close friends and family on the opposite side of the debate to ourselves, I'm sure.

Whilst the outcome of the referendum may well influence whether or not I vote Conservative again at the next General Election the split in the Conservative Party, in of itself, will not do so.

Mortimer · February 2016

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates...
I cannot, even by omission, allow you to imply that I am doing this at the bidding of someone else. I assure you I am not.
another_richard said:
...don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years...
GBP fell from about $2/€1.5 immediately before the 2008/9 recession to about $1.35/€1.08 in very short order, then stayed pretty low for some time, then when Draghi announced the whole Europrinty thing it began to go back up and peaked at about $1.74/€1.45 about two years ago, then the US recovery began to move ahead of UK/EU and US interest rates rose last year, causing GBP/USD to drift downwards to about £1.44/€1.30. Brexit fears are now beginning to further depress it and it now stands at about $1.40/€1.27

I realise quite a bit. Me read. Someday me tie my own shoelaces...
another_richard said:
perhaps they could remind us how much UK interest rates have risen during that period [last two years]?...Further back the fall in the sterling exchange rate of both 2008 and 1992 was followed by interest rate cuts not rises:
Are you genuinely implying that a drop of GDP to $1.20 will be met by an interest rate cut?

If there is a continued risk of deflation; yes.

Edit: As you can see, the fluctuations up to now have only led to interest rate cuts.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/interest-rate

One might conclude from this chart that there is far less correlation between Cable fluctuation causing interest rate changes. The latter is more likely to influence the former than vice versa.

rcs1000 · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
flightpath01 said:
What is stupid by the leavers is that they are saying 'so what?', they are brazening it that it might or would not happen. Can they tell us the names of all the companies which would fall over themselves to leave the EU to come here or who would flock to here to be outside the EU and not inside?
Leave are trying to make out that leaving is a shot to nothing a free hit. It is the opposite.
And the safeguard of leave the EU and all the politics stuff behind and join the EEA, which is at least plausible? Why surprise surprise - so what? It makes no difference we still have free movement of labour which is the mast the leavers have tied themselves to.
The rancid wing of the Leavers do not want the EEA, their demands will only just start if leave were to win.

EFTA countries:
Liechtenstein GDP per capita $134,617.38
Norway GDP per capita $100,818.50
Switzerland GDP per capita $84,815.41
Iceland GDP per capita $47,461.19

Other English speaking countries:
Australia GDP per capita $67,458.36
USA GDP per capita $53,041.98
Canada GDP per capita $51,958.38
New Zealand GDP per capita $41,555.83

UK GDP per capita $41,787.47

Inside the EU we are doing worse than every single EFTA country and all English-speaking countries bar New Zealand (whom we are at almost a statistical tie with). I see no reason why outside the EU we can't do at least as well as the likes of Canada, Australia etc at the very least. Do you?

Unanimously the EFTA nations are more prosperous than we are. That speaks volumes.
Why is the UK wrt GDP doing worse than Germany, France, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and Finland?
Germany - Like us they are also doing worse than all those other nations except New Zealand
France - We're almost certainly better than them already, we've been growing faster than them for years and when figures get updated we will have overtaken them. Again doing worse than the comparables.
Ireland - Been competing with low corporation taxes despite not because of the EU. Stagnating for years. Still worse than all comparables bar Iceland and New Zealand.
Netherlands, Austria, Belgium - Stagnating for years. Still worse than all comparables bar Iceland and New Zealand.
Luxembourg - Microstate.

Sweden, Denmark and Finland - The Scandinavians are actually doing well. Nowhere near as well as Norway but they are doing well and actually growing.

So other than the Scandinavians and Luxembourg it's not really an advert for success.

Finland is not growing; because of its dependence on the Russian economy and the collapse of Nokia, it's having a horrible time.

rcs1000 · February 2016

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Trust Mike to post three Remain adverts in one thread header!

I see Leave.EU are still making Galloway their special guest.

Honestly, I truly hope they are deserted by the sensible.
Unbelievable. I'm beginning to think Aaron is working for the EU.
I think he's just an egotistical prick.

Nobody would dispute that.

Not even him.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

That video is like home made porn.

It sounds like a good at the time, then you watch it, and you can't help but feel a little sick.

rcs1000 · February 2016

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates...
I cannot, even by omission, allow you to imply that I am doing this at the bidding of someone else. I assure you I am not.
another_richard said:
...don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years...
GBP fell from about $2/€1.5 immediately before the 2008/9 recession to about $1.35/€1.08 in very short order, then stayed pretty low for some time, then when Draghi announced the whole Europrinty thing it began to go back up and peaked at about $1.74/€1.45 about two years ago, then the US recovery began to move ahead of UK/EU and US interest rates rose last year, causing GBP/USD to drift downwards to about £1.44/€1.30. Brexit fears are now beginning to further depress it and it now stands at about $1.40/€1.27

I realise quite a bit. Me read. Someday me tie my own shoelaces...
another_richard said:
perhaps they could remind us how much UK interest rates have risen during that period [last two years]?...Further back the fall in the sterling exchange rate of both 2008 and 1992 was followed by interest rate cuts not rises:
Are you genuinely implying that a drop of GDP to $1.20 will be met by an interest rate cut?
If there is a continued risk of deflation; yes.

If the pound dropped to $1.20, the chance of deflation would be about the same as me having a sex change operation.

Live on politicalbetting.

Alanbrooke · February 2016

Wow

Merkel in danger of losing Baden Wurttemberg to the Greens ! Like Cameron losing Sussex to Caroline Lucas,

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-baden-wuerttemberg/in-der-cdu-in-baden-wuerttemberg-waechst-die-nervositaet-14084766.html

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates...
I cannot, even by omission, allow you to imply that I am doing this at the bidding of someone else. I assure you I am not.
another_richard said:
...don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years...
GBP fell from about $2/€1.5 immediately before the 2008/9 recession to about $1.35/€1.08 in very short order, then stayed pretty low for some time, then when Draghi announced the whole Europrinty thing it began to go back up and peaked at about $1.74/€1.45 about two years ago, then the US recovery began to move ahead of UK/EU and US interest rates rose last year, causing GBP/USD to drift downwards to about £$1.44/€1.30. Brexit fearsChanging interest rate expections are now beginning to further depress it and it now stands at about $1.40/€1.27

I realise quite a bit. Me read. Someday me tie my own shoelaces...

So no big deal. All part and parcel of having a freely floating exchange rate. Even if you assign all of the 4 cent, 3 eurocent change you've identified to Brexit fears (I don't) then it's still meaningless and within the margin of error of regular FX swings.

Luckyguy1983 · February 2016

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Trust Mike to post three Remain adverts in one thread header!

I see Leave.EU are still making Galloway their special guest.

Honestly, I truly hope they are deserted by the sensible.
Unbelievable. I'm beginning to think Aaron is working for the EU.
I think he's just an egotistical prick.

I think like many, Nigel included (and perhaps even the sainted Douglas Carswell), he is probably extremely driven by his own vision and ideology, and sometimes lacks to knack of seeing affairs through others' eyes.

JackW · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates...
I cannot, even by omission, allow you to imply that I am doing this at the bidding of someone else. I assure you I am not.
another_richard said:
...don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years...
GBP fell from about $2/€1.5 immediately before the 2008/9 recession to about $1.35/€1.08 in very short order, then stayed pretty low for some time, then when Draghi announced the whole Europrinty thing it began to go back up and peaked at about $1.74/€1.45 about two years ago, then the US recovery began to move ahead of UK/EU and US interest rates rose last year, causing GBP/USD to drift downwards to about £1.44/€1.30. Brexit fears are now beginning to further depress it and it now stands at about $1.40/€1.27

I realise quite a bit. Me read. Someday me tie my own shoelaces...
another_richard said:
perhaps they could remind us how much UK interest rates have risen during that period [last two years]?...Further back the fall in the sterling exchange rate of both 2008 and 1992 was followed by interest rate cuts not rises:
Are you genuinely implying that a drop of GDP to $1.20 will be met by an interest rate cut?
If there is a continued risk of deflation; yes.
If the pound dropped to $1.20, the chance of deflation would be about the same as me having a sex change operation.

Live on politicalbetting.

Might boost ad revenue on the site .... best not give OGH ideas ....

viewcode · February 2016

another_richard said:
Perhaps viewcode could tell us what were so unusual about the interest rates of mid 1980s compared to those to the early and late 1980s ?

Much as I would love to attempt to answer your question, since it's a digression you'll forgive me if I return to the actual point, namely...You can't legitimately dismiss £1=$1.20 as a "market correction" or part of normal market volatility, it's an exceptional event that should be given its full measure.

Mortimer · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates...
I cannot, even by omission, allow you to imply that I am doing this at the bidding of someone else. I assure you I am not.
another_richard said:
...don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years...
GBP fell from about $2/€1.5 immediately before the 2008/9 recession to about $1.35/€1.08 in very short order, then stayed pretty low for some time, then when Draghi announced the whole Europrinty thing it began to go back up and peaked at about $1.74/€1.45 about two years ago, then the US recovery began to move ahead of UK/EU and US interest rates rose last year, causing GBP/USD to drift downwards to about £1.44/€1.30. Brexit fears are now beginning to further depress it and it now stands at about $1.40/€1.27

I realise quite a bit. Me read. Someday me tie my own shoelaces...
another_richard said:
perhaps they could remind us how much UK interest rates have risen during that period [last two years]?...Further back the fall in the sterling exchange rate of both 2008 and 1992 was followed by interest rate cuts not rises:
Are you genuinely implying that a drop of GDP to $1.20 will be met by an interest rate cut?
If there is a continued risk of deflation; yes.
If the pound dropped to $1.20, the chance of deflation would be about the same as me having a sex change operation.

Live on politicalbetting.

It would certainly help my exports figure.....

But, yes, you're right. Deflation is unlikely - but, in short, viewcode needs to stop obsessing about cable changes directly causing interest rate rises.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:
Why is Boris, pictured holding a brick? – well, someone had to ask…
Is from his conference speech a few years ago (and someone at Leave is a Father Jack fan)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11130504/Boris-tells-brick-You-will-not-be-alone.html
well spotted. Farage DRINK, George FECK, Boris GIRLS
That video is My Lovely Horse?
Easy for you to say, my relations could pass for the cast.

Off to Waterford this weekend begorrah.

So I can get away with lots of Ozzy is awesome threads this weekend.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
Perhaps viewcode could tell us what were so unusual about the interest rates of mid 1980s compared to those to the early and late 1980s ?
Much as I would love to attempt to answer your question, since it's a digression you'll forgive me if I return to the actual point, namely...You can't legitimately dismiss £1=$1.20 as a "market correction" or part of normal market volatility, it's an exceptional event that should be given its full measure.

Actually you can. You've already identified a 60 cent change from $2 to $1.40 that had nothing to do with Brexit. The possibility of a further 20 cent change (less than one third of the recent change) when combined with the Fed continuing to imply they're going to raise rates faster than the ECB are implying is well within normal market volatility.

viewcode · February 2016

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates...
I cannot, even by omission, allow you to imply that I am doing this at the bidding of someone else. I assure you I am not.
another_richard said:
...don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years...
GBP fell from about $2/€1.5 immediately before the 2008/9 recession to about $1.35/€1.08 in very short order, then stayed pretty low for some time, then when Draghi announced the whole Europrinty thing it began to go back up and peaked at about $1.74/€1.45 about two years ago, then the US recovery began to move ahead of UK/EU and US interest rates rose last year, causing GBP/USD to drift downwards to about £1.44/€1.30. Brexit fears are now beginning to further depress it and it now stands at about $1.40/€1.27

I realise quite a bit. Me read. Someday me tie my own shoelaces...
another_richard said:
perhaps they could remind us how much UK interest rates have risen during that period [last two years]?...Further back the fall in the sterling exchange rate of both 2008 and 1992 was followed by interest rate cuts not rises:
Are you genuinely implying that a drop of GDP to $1.20 will be met by an interest rate cut?
If there is a continued risk of deflation; yes.

Well god love you sir, but if you genuinely believe that a drop that big will be met by a cut, then we will just have to end with me stating politely that, IMHO, it will not.

another_richard · February 2016

viewcode said:

Are you genuinely implying that a drop of GDP to $1.20 will be met by an interest rate cut?

No, I'm just pointing out that there isn't an automatic exchange rate fall interest rate rise connection as you seemed to be implying.

Exchange rates rise and fall for various reasons.
Interest rates rise and fall for various reasons.

Personally speaking I would prefer lower exchange rates and higher interest rates.

Sunil_Prasannan · February 2016

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

Mortimer · February 2016

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
It seems that the people who have been told to get all panic stricken about exchange rates...
I cannot, even by omission, allow you to imply that I am doing this at the bidding of someone else. I assure you I am not.
another_richard said:
...don't seem to realise that sterling has already significantly depreciated during the last two years...
GBP fell from about $2/€1.5 immediately before the 2008/9 recession to about $1.35/€1.08 in very short order, then stayed pretty low for some time, then when Draghi announced the whole Europrinty thing it began to go back up and peaked at about $1.74/€1.45 about two years ago, then the US recovery began to move ahead of UK/EU and US interest rates rose last year, causing GBP/USD to drift downwards to about £1.44/€1.30. Brexit fears are now beginning to further depress it and it now stands at about $1.40/€1.27

I realise quite a bit. Me read. Someday me tie my own shoelaces...
another_richard said:
perhaps they could remind us how much UK interest rates have risen during that period [last two years]?...Further back the fall in the sterling exchange rate of both 2008 and 1992 was followed by interest rate cuts not rises:
Are you genuinely implying that a drop of GDP to $1.20 will be met by an interest rate cut?
If there is a continued risk of deflation; yes.

Well god love you sir, but if you genuinely believe that a drop that big will be met by a cut, then we will just have to end with me stating politely that, IMHO, it will not.

Were you talking about your flat sale the other day (being a good reason to remain, if I remember correctly)? Hope it has gone well!

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

rcs1000 said:
Finland is not growing; because of its dependence on the Russian economy and the collapse of Nokia, it's having a horrible time.

Point taken. So two-thirds of the Scandinavian nations are doing well (but not as well as the non-EU Scandinavian nation) and other than that there is a micronation doing well. At a stretch you could maybe count Germany too, maybe but not really.

Alanbrooke · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:
Why is Boris, pictured holding a brick? – well, someone had to ask…
Is from his conference speech a few years ago (and someone at Leave is a Father Jack fan)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11130504/Boris-tells-brick-You-will-not-be-alone.html
well spotted. Farage DRINK, George FECK, Boris GIRLS
That video is My Lovely Horse?
Easy for you to say, my relations could pass for the cast.

Off to Waterford this weekend begorrah.
So I can get away with lots of Ozzy is awesome threads this weekend.

I'd go easy, I'm on a mission to wipe out Irish Barons.

MikeL · February 2016

Remain was 1.47 this morning. Now 1.43.

Any explanation for move?

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

MikeL said:
Remain was 1.47 this morning. Now 1.43.

Any explanation for move?

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/702137981788954628

viewcode · February 2016

Ah, I have it. Those who may require final, clinching proof that a post-Brexit GBP collapse will be a Very Bad Thing may wish to consider Capital Economics's stance that "Actually, a GBP collapse will be a good thing, yeah, that was it, we planned it that way all along, yeah, honest"

Working on the basis that Bootle is only ever right by accident, this may be a good time to invest in canned foods and shotguns...

another_richard · February 2016

viewcode said:

another_richard said:
Perhaps viewcode could tell us what were so unusual about the interest rates of mid 1980s compared to those to the early and late 1980s ?
Much as I would love to attempt to answer your question, since it's a digression you'll forgive me if I return to the actual point, namely...You can't legitimately dismiss £1=$1.20 as a "market correction" or part of normal market volatility, it's an exceptional event that should be given its full measure.

In other words you didn't realise that 14% interest rates were not unusual in the 1980s.

Though to be precise I'll point out that interest rates didn't technical reach 14% in the 1980s and were above 13% for only 2 months in 1985.

Interest rates rise
Interest rates fall
Exchange rates rise
Exchange rates fall

Perhaps you long for the days of the UK's ERM membership and would prefer if the UK joined the Euro ?

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