Hillary Benn says he won't share a platform with Cameron. I wonder if the stick Farage and Galloway are receiving is partly due to the embarrassment from the Remain side that they can't be seen to be united. After Scotland Labour won't touch Cameron with a bargepole.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
I have had two home counties Tory supporters describe him as a traitor and one describe him as a scumbag. Doesn't bode well.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
I have had two home counties Tory supporters describe him as a traitor and one describe him as a scumbag. Doesn't bode well.
On the other hand, Socialists are supporting him and REMAIN.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
Every leave conservative on the media today has been very complimentary to David Cameron and are clearly not going to split, indeed several expect him to continue as PM even if leave wins
Yeah ?
It may not suit you but that is the narrative from the leave conservatives this am
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
Just caught on the BBC a talking head explaining that the view in Brussels is once the referendum has taken place the UK will remain a member of the EU forever. If they honestly believe that, then the moment we vote to remain in the EU we will be taken advantage of.
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
That not right. It implies a better deal was needed NOT that better deal was definitely possible.
Indeed, Boris could credibly take the position that the deal was not good enough and if it had been him we would have picked up his papers at that point, said "Good Day" and walked out.
Cameron is getting panned because he accepted the crap deal, it might have been the only deal on offer, that does not mean he had to accept it.
It is the main criticism of many on here that he was never serious about leaving, and hence he was always ultimately going to have to accept whatever crap he was offered... and his opponents knew it.
We'll never know best deal on offer as Cameron undermined his whole negotiating platform by making clear he wouldnsupport whatever he got. Then after first draft he bigged it up, resulting in single rulebook clearly applying to UK banks in second draft. Then they said changes were nothing to be concerned about, resulting in it applying to non-banks in City too.
I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.
He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.
Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.
It's the way you tell them that makes them so funny.
And I believe that will mean net migration to this country will be in the order of tens of thousands each year, not the hundreds of thousands every year that we have seen over the last decade.
Yes, Britain will always be open to the best and brightest from around the world and those fleeing persecution.
But with us, our borders will be under control and immigration will be at levels our country can manage.
No ifs. No buts.
That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping.
He's a liar.
What's your evidence that he didn't believe it?
Because our immigration in that year was 180,000 from the EU, about which he could do absolutely nothing, because of the freedom of movement. If he had reduced non-EU immigration to nothing, he would have missed his target. He was either a liar or a fool, you choose which you prefer.
An interesting night across the Pond. As has been well signposted since IA, it's a three-horse race on the GOP side between the populist, the establishment candidate and the conservative (hugely simplistic of course).
A poor night for Cruz in all honesty in a state where he was generally seen as being the most likely to chase Trump home. Rubio, on the other hand, has bounced back from his disastrous NH showing and now looks the most likely to challenge Trump. Yet all three have enough to keep in the race for a while though Trump scooped all the delegates and that ultimately is what matters.
On the Dem side, Hillary did enough to keep Sanders at bay and should be more comfortable in the SC primary.
Looking at the final polls in South Carolina, Rubio/Cruz overperformed a little, Kasich underperformed a little, Bush way underperformed. I mentioned last night Bush polled in a range of 11.5 plus or minus 2. He got 7.8. Everyone else was in the range of final figures. Presumably his switchers-away were the late deciders who were so fretted about in yesterday's exit polls. The national import is pretty small relative to the improvement in Rubio's price, given that Bush is on about 5 across the states
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
Sharing the same currency is not the same as a currency peg.
The problem with the Eurozone crisis was more to do with stupid banking and inflexible labour markets than currency union.
Two sides of the same coin.
A currency union can only work in an Optimum Currency Area.
For this to exist you need (i) labour mobility; (ii) capital mobility; (iii) fiscal transfers; and (iv) similar business cycles
The EU gets a partial tick for (i) and (iii) a full tick for (ii) and a tick for (iv) [unless you also include the UK in which case it gets a big fat zero]
It was a paper on OCAs from the IEA in the late 80s that turned me against the Euro, having been relatively pro it.
The most sensible proposal was that of Lord Lawson, who proposed the Hard ECU. This would have allowed - over the course of decades or maybe centuries - a pan European currency to come into being, but only at the whim of the market. Mrs Thatcher should have backed her Chancellor.
Surely there's no tick for business cycles? Germany and Spain need completely different rates at the moment.
So does many states in the United States. Or even London and the rUK. These discrepencies happen all the time.
Just caught on the BBC a talking head explaining that the view in Brussels is once the referendum has taken place the UK will remain a member of the EU forever. If they honestly believe that, then the moment we vote to remain in the EU we will be taken advantage of.
I seem to recall Portillo making a similar point a few months ago. He regretted there being a referendum, because if 'Remain' wins then it cements our relationship into EU for foreseeable and will open the door to all sorts of next moves. At the moment, we are 'in', but clearly never happy and always likely to block all sorts of stuff.
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
The over supply of labour doesn't just suppress hourly rates, it also suppresses the total number of hours available to individual workers as they are distributed among a bigger group.
If there are 40 hours work available and they are taken by one employee they have a full time wage and much lower need for support.
If a second worker is added and they split the 40 hours, both have only part time earnings and both require support.
Workers need a monopoly on skills and supply to improve their hand in securing a better return for their labour.
The EU driven over-supply of labour undermines the domestic worker.
lump of labour fallacy
(but they do supress wage rates)
You can certainly replace plant with labour if the labour is reduced in cost.
The problems so doing include that the government then has to subsidise this extra low productivity labour by increasing the taxation on high productivity labour and the socioeconomic drawbacks for the local poor - not only in supressing wages as you mention but in the extra pressures it brings to bear on housing, social services etc.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
That not right. It implies a better deal was needed NOT that better deal was definitely possible.
Indeed, Boris could credibly take the position that the deal was not good enough and if it had been him we would have picked up his papers at that point, said "Good Day" and walked out.
Cameron is getting panned because he accepted the crap deal, it might have been the only deal on offer, that does not mean he had to accept it.
It is the main criticism of many on here that he was never serious about leaving, and hence he was always ultimately going to have to accept whatever crap he was offered... and his opponents knew it.
We'll never know best deal on offer as Cameron undermined his whole negotiating platform by making clear he wouldnsupport whatever he got. Then after first draft he bigged it up, resulting in single rulebook clearly applying to UK banks in second draft. Then they said changes were nothing to be concerned about, resulting in it applying to non-banks in City too.
Normal Hollande out-foxed him. I am not sure Cameron even realised that. Anyway it is not something which the man-in-the-street would care about.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
I have had two home counties Tory supporters describe him as a traitor and one describe him as a scumbag. Doesn't bode well.
On the other hand, Socialists are supporting him and REMAIN.
The bigger crime he has committed, no doubt.
Honestly, I'm voting Leave, but the atmosphere is clearly going to be absolutely poisonous from Leave (vs extremely condescending from Remain), I don't think I will engage much during this contest. People are trying to start off polite, but the arguments are already coming through about scum and traitors, and that will increasingly become the tone of the campaign as a whole. It's not worth the aggravation.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Boris clearly knows a lot of latin and ancient literature etc etc. Not so sure Cameron remembers any economics.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
I have had two home counties Tory supporters describe him as a traitor and one describe him as a scumbag. Doesn't bode well.
On the other hand, Socialists are supporting him and REMAIN.
The bigger crime he has committed, no doubt.
Honestly, I'm voting Leave, but the atmosphere is clearly going to be absolutely poisonous from Leave (vs extremely condescending from Remain), I don't think I will engage much during this contest. People are trying to start off polite, but the arguments are already coming through about scum and traitors, and that will increasingly become the tone of the campaign as a whole. It's not worth the aggravation.
Most Labour and Lib-Dem supporters will be quite spectators. All they have to ensure is that their lot go out and vote.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Hmmm... I knew some very stupid Classics students at Cambridge.
(Not including Kwasi Kwarteng. Who got a First. And then was then a Fulbright Scholar. And is an Out-ter. Although he did work for Crispin Odey, so he's not all good.)
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
Sharing the same currency is not the same as a currency peg.
The problem with the Eurozone crisis was more to do with stupid banking and inflexible labour markets than currency union.
Two sides of the same coin.
A currency union can only work in an Optimum Currency Area.
For this to exist you need (i) labour mobility; (ii) capital mobility; (iii) fiscal transfers; and (iv) similar business cycles
The EU gets a partial tick for (i) and (iii) a full tick for (ii) and a tick for (iv) [unless you also include the UK in which case it gets a big fat zero]
It was a paper on OCAs from the IEA in the late 80s that turned me against the Euro, having been relatively pro it.
The most sensible proposal was that of Lord Lawson, who proposed the Hard ECU. This would have allowed - over the course of decades or maybe centuries - a pan European currency to come into being, but only at the whim of the market. Mrs Thatcher should have backed her Chancellor.
Surely there's no tick for business cycles? Germany and Spain need completely different rates at the moment.
So does many states in the United States. Or even London and the rUK. These discrepencies happen all the time.
Two of those three have a transfer union and pooling of risk, one of them doesn't, and won't as long as the Germans have anything to say about it.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Boris clearly knows a lot of latin and ancient literature etc etc. Not so sure Cameron remembers any economics.
A PPE degree is basically the first year of each subject, so limited amount of depth.
Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.
Better to lay Sanders?
Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.
If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
How does that work if they aren't on the ballot? What if the FBI clap her in irons in September? Presumably Hillary is still on the ballot?
If it did happen it'd depend on when:
1. In the next month.
Re.
3. Between mid-April and the convention.
Result: Probably Hillary, perhaps Biden. Hillary should have an outright majority of delegates by this stage and so even if she is arrested, she's in a strong position to dictate terms as long as leaked evidence doesn't look too damning. I could well see her fight on.
4. Between the convention and formal filing deadlines.
Result: As above, except the running mate becomes the beneficiary if she stands back. Depends on how far the legal process has gone, but there would be time for the DNC to nominate someone else if she was forced to withdraw.
5. Between the formal filings and the Electoral College vote.
Result: chaos. Her name would be on the ballot (or on the votes already cast) but a withdrawal at that stage would still give the nominated electors the chance to vote for someone else but in some states only. Some states legally mandate electors to vote as directed and those would have to go to Hillary. The Republican would almost certainly win anyway.
6. After the Electoral College vote.
Result: impeachment or resignation. She becomes president; she goes.
Republicans need a 2/3 Senate majority to impeach Hillary if she becomes president, they do not have it at the moment
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
That not right. It implies a better deal was needed NOT that better deal was definitely possible.
Indeed, Boris could credibly take the position that the deal was not good enough and if it had been him we would have picked up his papers at that point, said "Good Day" and walked out.
Cameron is getting panned because he accepted the crap deal, it might have been the only deal on offer, that does not mean he had to accept it.
It is the main criticism of many on here that he was never serious about leaving, and hence he was always ultimately going to have to accept whatever crap he was offered... and his opponents knew it.
We'll never know best deal on offer as Cameron undermined his whole negotiating platform by making clear he wouldnsupport whatever he got. Then after first draft he bigged it up, resulting in single rulebook clearly applying to UK banks in second draft. Then they said changes were nothing to be concerned about, resulting in it applying to non-banks in City too.
Normal Hollande out-foxed him. I am not sure Cameron even realised that. Anyway it is not something which the man-in-the-street would care about.
Hollande will definitely be running on taming City of London in 2017.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Hmmm... I knew some very stupid Classics students at Cambridge.
(Not including Kwasi Kwarteng. Who got a First. And then was then a Fulbright Scholar. And is an Out-ter. Although he did work for Crispin Odey, so he's not all good.)
Just caught on the BBC a talking head explaining that the view in Brussels is once the referendum has taken place the UK will remain a member of the EU forever. If they honestly believe that, then the moment we vote to remain in the EU we will be taken advantage of.
I seem to recall Portillo making a similar point a few months ago. He regretted there being a referendum, because if 'Remain' wins then it cements our relationship into EU for foreseeable and will open the door to all sorts of next moves. At the moment, we are 'in', but clearly never happy and always likely to block all sorts of stuff.
Everything is going to plan then:
He has told Jean-Claude Juncker that he intends to use the referendum to, as the President of the European Commission puts it, “dock Britain to the EU”.
David Cameron is using an in-out referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU to permanently “dock” the UK to the 28-member bloc, Jean-Claude Juncker has claimed, as Cabinet ministers demanded that the Prime Minister delays the vote as long as possible.
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Boris clearly knows a lot of latin and ancient literature etc etc. Not so sure Cameron remembers any economics.
A PPE degree is basically the first year of each subject, so limited amount of depth.
Describes Cameron perfectly, only missing a "very"
Alistair Stewart #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1@BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.
But most of them have 3 A's at A-level....and people wondered why Gove felt the need to tackle the blob so aggressively.
Actually about 3% of 18 year olds get 3 A's at A Level, less if you only look at A*
Surely there's no tick for business cycles? Germany and Spain need completely different rates at the moment.
The whole idea of the Hard ECU was that a single European currency would evolve over time, if and only if, there was a market demand for it. Individual countries could still issue their own currency, it's just that - over decades or centuries - if there was demand for it among consumers and business, then the Hard ECU would slowly take market share.
So, pan-European businesses might choose to issue debt in Hard ECUs on the basis that they had operations around Europe, and it was easier than borrowing in five different countries, etc.
It was a generally good idea, but (a) it didn't fit with the political nature of the Eurozone project, and (b) Mrs Thatcher refused to back it. If she had, there was a non-zero chance that a number of countries - such as Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, and even perhaps Germany - might have backed it over the Euro.
What I'm finding most strange is the almost invisibility of Corbyn. I know he's supposed to be for Leave, but pushed into Remain - but he's totally absent from the debate.
Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.
Better to lay Sanders?
Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.
If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
How does that work if they aren't on the ballot? What if the FBI clap her in irons in September? Presumably Hillary is still on the ballot?
If it did happen it'd depend on when:
1. In the next month.
Re.
3. Between mid-April and the convention.
Result: Probably Hillary, perhaps Biden. Hillary should have an outright majority of delegates by this stage and so even if she is arrested, she's in a strong position to dictate terms as long as leaked evidence doesn't look too damning. I could well see her fight on.
4. Between the convention and formal filing deadlines.
Result: As above, except the running mate becomes the beneficiary if she stands back. Depends on how far the legal process has gone, but there would be time for the DNC to nominate someone else if she was forced to withdraw.
5. Between the formal filings and the Electoral College vote.
Result: chaos. Her name would be on the ballot (or on the votes already cast) but a withdrawal at that stage would still give the nominated electors the chance to vote for someone else but in some states only. Some states legally mandate electors to vote as directed and those would have to go to Hillary. The Republican would almost certainly win anyway.
6. After the Electoral College vote.
Result: impeachment or resignation. She becomes president; she goes.
Republicans need a 2/3 Senate majority to impeach Hillary if she becomes president, they do not have it at the moment
No, they need a 2/3 majority to convict. They just need a simple majority in the House to impeach, which they have.
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
Yes, but it's important to realise that the vast bulk of Norway's exports to the EU are of energy - something that is tariff-less throughout the world.
Ex-energy, Norway runs a massive trade deficit with the EU.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Johnson was a Kings Scholar at Eton ( like Orwell and Connelly ), Cameron a standard entry Etonian from a newly rich but socially connected family. Johnson is representative of an intellectual elite, Cameron of a social elite. There's no doubt that Johnson is cleverer than Cameron.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
Yes, but it's important to realise that the vast bulk of Norway's exports to the EU are of energy - something that is tariff-less throughout the world.
Ex-energy, Norway runs a massive trade deficit with the EU.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Hmmm... I knew some very stupid Classics students at Cambridge.
(Not including Kwasi Kwarteng. Who got a First. And then was then a Fulbright Scholar. And is an Out-ter. Although he did work for Crispin Odey, so he's not all good.)
Quite possibly... I'll ask him next time I see him
BTW, Kwasi is the last person in the UK not to have a smartphone.
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
A caveat on historical precedent: Just as the modern era in UK politics begins with postwar, the modern era in US presidential primaries begins in 1976 with the first real national primaries that chose Carter and Ford. The sample size for each party since then is ten, and three on each side were effectively uncontested, so most of these "candidates lose if" factoids are based on seven obs.
Other curios and observations Boris has the kind of degree that normally occasions scorn from STEM obsessives when young people get them, so it's probably virtue-signalling about the kind of person who studies letters, dressed as appeals to social utility Rubio achieved his place at the head of the non-Trump/Cruz candidates by pandering to dumb fundamentalism among evangelicals whom he peeled off from Cruz, which Bush and Kasich did not and would not do. Even Kasich is more a moderate-conservative than a conservative-moderate; he is about to go home to the statehouse to defund Planned Parenthood Grayling can't say DC should quit if Leave wins, while remaining in the cabinet
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
Rotterdam skews the EU-UK trade stats; I don't know what it does for Norway.
What I'm finding most strange is the almost invisibility of Corbyn. I know he's supposed to be for Leave, but pushed into Remain - but he's totally absent from the debate.
As a leader, he's doing no leading anywhere here.
Finally learned his lesson and trying to stay out of the limelight whenever he can, I suspect. Framing this as a Tory only debate is incorrect, but it is much more important for them than any other party, and he can maximize their difficulties by staying well out of it.
Honestly, I'm voting Leave, but the atmosphere is clearly going to be absolutely poisonous from Leave (vs extremely condescending from Remain), I don't think I will engage much during this contest. People are trying to start off polite, but the arguments are already coming through about scum and traitors, and that will increasingly become the tone of the campaign as a whole. It's not worth the aggravation.
That's the nature of adversarial politics - loyalty vs principle is a difficult one to resolve. For all the talk about post-referendum unity, the 1975 EEC Referendum was a big step on the road to the Labour schism of 1981. Roy Jenkins appeared on the same platform as William Whitelaw and Jo Grimond and famously got flour-bombed at East Ham Town Hall at a public meeting.
On the other side you had Tony Benn, Peter Shore and others and the truth is once people start feeling comfortable disagreeing over one issue, they'll start disagreeing over other things. However this ends up, Cameron has given his successor an awful inheritance in terms of Party management.
I am of the view that some of the things said during referendum campaigns are said in the heat of battle but, as we see on here on matters Scottish, the legacy of animosity continues and festers at a lower level. There will be some things said during this campaign which will be quickly forgiven and forgotten and others which will cause long-term resentment.
Conservatives are pragmatic people - they know that without power and office, they have no purpose. The preservation of that position is power is paramount (say that with your teeth in) but sometimes principle and belief can override pragmatism and we'll see where that takes us all.
Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?
Yes. I really don't understand why he's still in the race. Then again, I never really got why he was there to start with.
Bush at least has done the decent thing and it'll be interesting to see how much of his support Kasich picks up.
Looks the most natural fit to me, I might be talking my book here - but I see Rubio as much, much, much closer to Cruz than Bush.
Actually, I think the GOP would prefer Trump and to (try and) keep him on a tight leash.
I mean, they've had loose mouthed and gaffe-prone Presidents before.
The GOP establishment would have preferred Bush most of all, but would be happy with Rubio. They would probably prefer Trump to Cruz, but only in the way you might prefer root canal surgery to being burnt alive!!
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
Sharing the same currency is not the same as a currency peg.
The problem with the Eurozone crisis was more to do with stupid banking and inflexible labour markets than currency union.
Two sides of the same coin.
A currency union can only work in an Optimum Currency Area.
For this to exist you need (i) labour mobility; (ii) capital mobility; (iii) fiscal transfers; and (iv) similar business cycles
The EU gets a partial tick for (i) and (iii) a full tick for (ii) and a tick for (iv) [unless you also include the UK in which case it gets a big fat zero]
It was a paper on OCAs from the IEA in the late 80s that turned me against the Euro, having been relatively pro it.
The most sensible proposal was that of Lord Lawson, who proposed the Hard ECU. This would have allowed - over the course of decades or maybe centuries - a pan European currency to come into being, but only at the whim of the market. Mrs Thatcher should have backed her Chancellor.
Surely there's no tick for business cycles? Germany and Spain need completely different rates at the moment.
So does many states in the United States. Or even London and the rUK. These discrepencies happen all the time.
Germany / Spain is a fair point - I was really thinking about the difference between fixed and floating mortgages (which is a UK/continental difference) when I wrote that.
But that's why you need fiscal transfers. Texans accept that they will subsidise Arkansas and Montana as part of being in the Union. Germans were not as happy to subsidise Greeks or Italians.
I see we are now getting all the guff about safer / more dangerous from terrorism if IN / OUT. Again, all totally irrelevant nonsense. Terrorists don't respect laws and will attempt to get into whatever country they want to commit crime. And as for intelligence sharing, again it isn't an EU vs non-EU thing, it is a worldwide cooperation.
IN or OUT won't be a blind bit of difference in terms of extremist nutters wanting to blow us up and how the spooks in the shadows operate to try to defeat this.
Germany / Spain is a fair point - I was really thinking about the difference between fixed and floating mortgages (which is a UK/continental difference) when I wrote that.
But that's why you need fiscal transfers. Texans accept that they will subsidise Arkansas and Montana as part of being in the Union. Germans were not as happy to subsidise Greeks or Italians.
Which is why the Eurozone - if it is to survive - will need to look more and more like a country.
[Edit to add. Stupid me. The Eurozone ends on August 8th this year.]
Just caught on the BBC a talking head explaining that the view in Brussels is once the referendum has taken place the UK will remain a member of the EU forever. If they honestly believe that, then the moment we vote to remain in the EU we will be taken advantage of.
If that happens expect a second vote before too long.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
You should meet him over dinner with copious wine, then you might learn something interesting.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Hmmm... I knew some very stupid Classics students at Cambridge.
(Not including Kwasi Kwarteng. Who got a First. And then was then a Fulbright Scholar. And is an Out-ter. Although he did work for Crispin Odey, so he's not all good.)
Quite possibly... I'll ask him next time I see him
BTW, Kwasi is the last person in the UK not to have a smartphone.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
You should meet him over dinner with copious wine, then you might learn something interesting.
He was vehement. Spain will do nothing to encourage Catalonian independence.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Spain didn't veto Slovenia joining. It would be very easy to portray admitting Scotland post Brexit as a unique circumstance that was about saving an unwilling population from being hijacked by a backward-looking, nativist movement (as seen from Brussels).
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
I suspect the difference is whether they are in or out of the EU. I completely agree with the inside-EU assessment.
But, as I said, it may just have been the French causing trouble.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
Rotterdam skews the EU-UK trade stats; I don't know what it does for Norway.
To be fair I think Norway's trade surplus with the EU is probably made up overwhelmingly of energy resources. Not only vast amounts of oil, but they also export large amounts of hydroelectric power generation to Denmark
The last two GOP runs have proved very profitable, but this time I've been struggling to find a way in.
My very early nomination money (well over a year ago) went on Christie then more recently it went on Rubio. Christie is a write off and I had a feeling so was Rubio, but now I'm not so sure.
The GOP grandees can work with Trump, to a point, they can't work with Cruz. That won't stop them trying to bring Trump down (the assumption is that Cruz will eventually wither). Given Rubio's team was sounded out by Bush donors some time ago in case Jeb did drop out, Marco should have resources. More importantly he is perhaps the main fairly middle of the road candidate that still holds a decent block within the GOP voter base.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it involves the ability to gather information, sift for the important stuff, analyse the results and reach conclusions, but it's very qualitative and I think his conclusions rely more on rhetorical ability than something more rigorous. If true, it would explain why he did well in journalism and politics, but these are not skills you need in, say, putting up a shelf or winning a war. If he became PM, he would be horrendously reliant on his staff.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
You may have missed the original post a few days ago.
1. If the UK is in the EU, then you are absolutely right
2. If the UK votes to leave, then I think the EU making an offer to Scotland to secede and rejoin the EU is not impossible. It would be incredibly hostile, but it's a different scenario to permitting an existing EU member to break in two.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Spain didn't veto Slovenia joining. It would be very easy to portray admitting Scotland post Brexit as a unique circumstance that was about saving an unwilling population from being hijacked by a backward-looking, nativist movement (as seen from Brussels).
Giving an independent Scotland automatic EU membership would be unthinkable to any Spanish government. Or French one, for that matter. Why encourage any separatist tendencies when you don't have to? The EU would also need a good relationship with the rUK, even it had voted to Leave. We will remain a G8 country and major export destination.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Hmmm... I knew some very stupid Classics students at Cambridge.
(Not including Kwasi Kwarteng. Who got a First. And then was then a Fulbright Scholar. And is an Out-ter. Although he did work for Crispin Odey, so he's not all good.)
Quite possibly... I'll ask him next time I see him
BTW, Kwasi is the last person in the UK not to have a smartphone.
My wife does not have one , and I only have one due to work or I would not either. I prefer a pencil and paper.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
I'd be interested in your view as to how well Cameron has conducted these negotiations.
A couple of years back we crossed words on the issue with me saying Cameron had destroyed his negotiation position by ruling out leaving the EU whereas you assured me he knew what he was doing.
IDS says staying in the EU makes us more vulnerable to a Paris style attack according to the BBC. So the PM is not only selling a bad deal, he's undermining our security and safety, according to IDS. Yeah, this isn't going to get ugly at all.
Going to be some Labour supporters enjoying seeing another party spit blood at each other for a change.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Wall street banks falling over themselves for REMAIN may well prompt actual voters to question 'so what could be in it for me?'
There’s another aspect to the employment of migrants who will work for lower rates than locals, especially in a country like the UK where multinational companies ensure profits are taxed at the ;lowest rate, or none at all. The employment of workers at lower rates, while maintaining prices, enables an increase in profits, which, as I say, are taxed (or not) elsewhere. There are one or two household names I could name, but ........
You could but you would be looking in the wrong place, corporations use the rules of the environment in which they find themselves. Those household names find themselves in the EU, an organisation which was EXPLICITLY founded to promote the free movement of capital, which means people can move their money where they want in the Union, and ultimately pay their tax where they want in the union.
This seems to be a matter of cognitive dissonance for those on the left, they love the EU, so they gloss over inconvenient parts of it, notable, that it is, and always will be a corporatist racket - there are twice the lobbyists in Brussels than in Washington DC. Not just that, almost one of the last acts of the currently President of the EU, Mr Juncker, in his former job, was to make it extremely cheap for foreign companies to set up headquarters and pay tax in Luxenbourg, funny that.
I didn’t think either Switzerland or the Cayman Islands were in the EU! Luxembourg will, I expect be dealt with at some point. Unless it’s only UK which has the problem. Is it?
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
True but Boris is clearly not a stratosphere ahead of Cameron in terms of intellect
The last two GOP runs have proved very profitable, but this time I've been struggling to find a way in.
My very early nomination money (well over a year ago) went on Christie then more recently it went on Rubio. Christie is a write off and I had a feeling so was Rubio, but now I'm not so sure.
The GOP grandees can work with Trump, to a point, they can't work with Cruz. That won't stop them trying to bring Trump down (the assumption is that Cruz will eventually wither). Given Rubio's team was sounded out by Bush donors some time ago in case Jeb did drop out, Marco should have resources. More importantly he is perhaps the main fairly middle of the road candidate that still holds a decent block within the GOP voter base.
Seems to me now that the only viable 'stop trump' candidate is Rubio. Cruz is too reliant on evangelicals and these voters are in states that offer only proportional delegates. Looking increasingly like no one can stop Trump, but I remain on Rubio for both GOP and POTUS. Hoping to make up for early losses on Bush.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Spain didn't veto Slovenia joining. It would be very easy to portray admitting Scotland post Brexit as a unique circumstance that was about saving an unwilling population from being hijacked by a backward-looking, nativist movement (as seen from Brussels).
Giving an independent Scotland automatic EU membership would be unthinkable to any Spanish government. Or French one, for that matter. Why encourage any separatist tendencies when you don't have to? The EU would also need a good relationship with the rUK, even it had voted to Leave. We will remain a G8 country and major export destination.
The separatist tendency they will be fighting will be the tendency to secede from the EU.
In effect it will be a warning: Vote for nationalism and your nation will be no more.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
You may have missed the original post a few days ago.
1. If the UK is in the EU, then you are absolutely right
2. If the UK votes to leave, then I think the EU making an offer to Scotland to secede and rejoin the EU is not impossible. It would be incredibly hostile, but it's a different scenario to permitting an existing EU member to break in two.
What would stop us then inviting the Basque country and Catalonia to secede from Spain (and extending that to any other secession-minded part of the EU) and to form a trading bloc with us, maybe even with the pound as a common currency? On top of which we would remain Scotland's biggest trading partner and only tenable geographic route into the EU, so UDI would be madness.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it involves the ability to gather information, sift for the important stuff, analyse the results and reach conclusions, but it's very qualitative and I think his conclusions rely more on rhetorical ability than something more rigorous. If true, it would explain why he did well in journalism and politics, but these are not skills you need in, say, putting up a shelf or winning a war. If he became PM, he would be horrendously reliant on his staff.
Haven't you just summed up 'politician' with those skills? :-)
Very good, although since Genies are already known to grant wishes with consequences you were not expecting, and interpreted differently to how you intended, it could be argued all genies are EU genies too.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it involves the ability to gather information, sift for the important stuff, analyse the results and reach conclusions, but it's very qualitative and I think his conclusions rely more on rhetorical ability than something more rigorous. If true, it would explain why he did well in journalism and politics, but these are not skills you need in, say, putting up a shelf or winning a war. If he became PM, he would be horrendously reliant on his staff.
Sounds like Cameron or Blair. All are "Big picture" men with plenty of politics talent and rhetorical ability, and not much of an eye for detail. Parliament is woefully short on scientists, engineers, or in deed anyone who has done anything other than carry another politicians bags for a bit before getting elected. PPE is the easy bit of three courses, there is a reason people increasingly sneer at PPE politicians, and for some reason they seem to be very average in many ways and especially lack the slightest hint of intellectual curiosity.
Just caught on the BBC a talking head explaining that the view in Brussels is once the referendum has taken place the UK will remain a member of the EU forever. If they honestly believe that, then the moment we vote to remain in the EU we will be taken advantage of.
The EU will have enough of their own problems with Le Pen and Wilders likely to top the polls next year in France and the Netherlands respectively and the AfD continuing to rise in Germany
I did not get one until last year, some pensioners are still not even on the internet
I first got onto the internet when I was 28 - my parents were on it before I was. I got my first mobile phone when I was 38 - all it does is calls and texts and I never take it with me anywhere much anyway. I do like my tablet though which I got on my 41st birthday last year.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it involves the ability to gather information, sift for the important stuff, analyse the results and reach conclusions, but it's very qualitative and I think his conclusions rely more on rhetorical ability than something more rigorous. If true, it would explain why he did well in journalism and politics, but these are not skills you need in, say, putting up a shelf or winning a war. If he became PM, he would be horrendously reliant on his staff.
Sounds like Cameron or Blair. All are "Big picture" men with plenty of politics talent and rhetorical ability, and not much of an eye for detail. Parliament is woefully short on scientists, engineers, or in deed anyone who has done anything other than carry another politicians bags for a bit before getting elected. PPE is the easy bit of three courses, there is a reason people increasingly sneer at PPE politicians, and for some reason they seem to be very average in many ways and especially lack the slightest hint of intellectual curiosity.
There are a few scientists and engineers, Thatcher was a chemist of course, Cable studied natural sciences, a few backbenchers were engineers but it is not surprising most scientists go into science and industry and leave the politics to the PPE grads
IDS says staying in the EU makes us more vulnerable to a Paris style attack according to the BBC. So the PM is not only selling a bad deal, he's undermining our security and safety, according to IDS. Yeah, this isn't going to get ugly at all.
Going to be some Labour supporters enjoying seeing another party spit blood at each other for a change.
As long as Corbyn is Labour leader the only thing that will stop the Tories winning in 2020 is an actual split into two parties. And that won't happen.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
This seems a very odd line. Who cares TBH. You might as well ask who Aberdeen Fishmongers are coming out for, or Manchester Lawyers, or Bristol Bricklayers. Bankers don't get any more votes than anyone else. The whole idea of campaign finance is a farce anyway, Remain get to spend the government money, they will win on that front regardless of who backs LEAVE.
The last two GOP runs have proved very profitable, but this time I've been struggling to find a way in.
My very early nomination money (well over a year ago) went on Christie then more recently it went on Rubio. Christie is a write off and I had a feeling so was Rubio, but now I'm not so sure.
The GOP grandees can work with Trump, to a point, they can't work with Cruz. That won't stop them trying to bring Trump down (the assumption is that Cruz will eventually wither). Given Rubio's team was sounded out by Bush donors some time ago in case Jeb did drop out, Marco should have resources. More importantly he is perhaps the main fairly middle of the road candidate that still holds a decent block within the GOP voter base.
Seems to me now that the only viable 'stop trump' candidate is Rubio. Cruz is too reliant on evangelicals and these voters are in states that offer only proportional delegates. Looking increasingly like no one can stop Trump, but I remain on Rubio for both GOP and POTUS. Hoping to make up for early losses on Bush.
Cruz should win Texas on Super Tuesday on March 1st though and probably Arkansas and maybe a few caucuses in the MidWest. Unless Rubio also picks up a few states Cruz will then become Trump's main challenger and if Trump wins Florida two weeks on Tuesday Rubio will then drop out
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Hmmm... I knew some very stupid Classics students at Cambridge.
(Not including Kwasi Kwarteng. Who got a First. And then was then a Fulbright Scholar. And is an Out-ter. Although he did work for Crispin Odey, so he's not all good.)
Quite possibly... I'll ask him next time I see him
BTW, Kwasi is the last person in the UK not to have a smartphone.
Not quite. Maybe the last person in the UK to have a job and no smartphone. I have no intention of getting the latter and poor prospects of getting the former (despite a PPE First).
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
Trade, finance, economics and prosperity are secondary issues for the SNP. What matters are the flag and a frontier. To be fair, it's what all nationalism is about in the end, British as well.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
Rotterdam skews the EU-UK trade stats; I don't know what it does for Norway.
To be fair I think Norway's trade surplus with the EU is probably made up overwhelmingly of energy resources. Not only vast amounts of oil, but they also export large amounts of hydroelectric power generation to Denmark
I still think it's not a great comparison given that we're much bigger than Norway. But this talk of energy has got me thinking, do we not import electricity from France? I wouldn't be surprised to hear Cameron tell us leaving the EU is a threat to our energy security. Obviously the Leavers could point to the closure of perfectly good coal fired power stations, but it this topic could come up.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
Comments
Over four-fifths of @UKLabour members say they'll be voting to Remain.
Because our immigration in that year was 180,000 from the EU, about which he could do absolutely nothing, because of the freedom of movement. If he had reduced non-EU immigration to nothing, he would have missed his target. He was either a liar or a fool, you choose which you prefer.
An interesting night across the Pond. As has been well signposted since IA, it's a three-horse race on the GOP side between the populist, the establishment candidate and the conservative (hugely simplistic of course).
A poor night for Cruz in all honesty in a state where he was generally seen as being the most likely to chase Trump home. Rubio, on the other hand, has bounced back from his disastrous NH showing and now looks the most likely to challenge Trump. Yet all three have enough to keep in the race for a while though Trump scooped all the delegates and that ultimately is what matters.
On the Dem side, Hillary did enough to keep Sanders at bay and should be more comfortable in the SC primary.
Virginia
North Carolina
The problems so doing include that the government then has to subsidise this extra low productivity labour by increasing the taxation on high productivity labour and the socioeconomic drawbacks for the local poor - not only in supressing wages as you mention but in the extra pressures it brings to bear on housing, social services etc.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Honestly, I'm voting Leave, but the atmosphere is clearly going to be absolutely poisonous from Leave (vs extremely condescending from Remain), I don't think I will engage much during this contest. People are trying to start off polite, but the arguments are already coming through about scum and traitors, and that will increasingly become the tone of the campaign as a whole. It's not worth the aggravation.
Watching will be fun. Might need an "X" rating.
(Not including Kwasi Kwarteng. Who got a First. And then was then a Fulbright Scholar. And is an Out-ter. Although he did work for Crispin Odey, so he's not all good.)
I went from being quite impressed, to thinking dickhead - but can't remember what over.
So, pan-European businesses might choose to issue debt in Hard ECUs on the basis that they had operations around Europe, and it was easier than borrowing in five different countries, etc.
It was a generally good idea, but (a) it didn't fit with the political nature of the Eurozone project, and (b) Mrs Thatcher refused to back it. If she had, there was a non-zero chance that a number of countries - such as Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, and even perhaps Germany - might have backed it over the Euro.
As a leader, he's doing no leading anywhere here.
Ex-energy, Norway runs a massive trade deficit with the EU.
Johnson is representative of an intellectual elite, Cameron of a social elite.
There's no doubt that Johnson is cleverer than Cameron.
BTW, Kwasi is the last person in the UK not to have a smartphone.
Someone here has the numbers.
Just as the modern era in UK politics begins with postwar, the modern era in US presidential primaries begins in 1976 with the first real national primaries that chose Carter and Ford. The sample size for each party since then is ten, and three on each side were effectively uncontested, so most of these "candidates lose if" factoids are based on seven obs.
Other curios and observations
Boris has the kind of degree that normally occasions scorn from STEM obsessives when young people get them, so it's probably virtue-signalling about the kind of person who studies letters, dressed as appeals to social utility
Rubio achieved his place at the head of the non-Trump/Cruz candidates by pandering to dumb fundamentalism among evangelicals whom he peeled off from Cruz, which Bush and Kasich did not and would not do. Even Kasich is more a moderate-conservative than a conservative-moderate; he is about to go home to the statehouse to defund Planned Parenthood
Grayling can't say DC should quit if Leave wins, while remaining in the cabinet
But, of course, I could be wrong.
He does have some political sense after all.
On the other side you had Tony Benn, Peter Shore and others and the truth is once people start feeling comfortable disagreeing over one issue, they'll start disagreeing over other things. However this ends up, Cameron has given his successor an awful inheritance in terms of Party management.
I am of the view that some of the things said during referendum campaigns are said in the heat of battle but, as we see on here on matters Scottish, the legacy of animosity continues and festers at a lower level. There will be some things said during this campaign which will be quickly forgiven and forgotten and others which will cause long-term resentment.
Conservatives are pragmatic people - they know that without power and office, they have no purpose. The preservation of that position is power is paramount (say that with your teeth in) but sometimes principle and belief can override pragmatism and we'll see where that takes us all.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
But that's why you need fiscal transfers. Texans accept that they will subsidise Arkansas and Montana as part of being in the Union. Germans were not as happy to subsidise Greeks or Italians.
IN or OUT won't be a blind bit of difference in terms of extremist nutters wanting to blow us up and how the spooks in the shadows operate to try to defeat this.
[Edit to add. Stupid me. The Eurozone ends on August 8th this year.]
If not then that makes two of us
"All the other EU countries came from some form of dictatorship, communism or facsim & the EU looks democratic to them. We know its not #bbcqt"
But, as I said, it may just have been the French causing trouble.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
My very early nomination money (well over a year ago) went on Christie then more recently it went on Rubio. Christie is a write off and I had a feeling so was Rubio, but now I'm not so sure.
The GOP grandees can work with Trump, to a point, they can't work with Cruz. That won't stop them trying to bring Trump down (the assumption is that Cruz will eventually wither). Given Rubio's team was sounded out by Bush donors some time ago in case Jeb did drop out, Marco should have resources. More importantly he is perhaps the main fairly middle of the road candidate that still holds a decent block within the GOP voter base.
1. If the UK is in the EU, then you are absolutely right
2. If the UK votes to leave, then I think the EU making an offer to Scotland to secede and rejoin the EU is not impossible. It would be incredibly hostile, but it's a different scenario to permitting an existing EU member to break in two.
I'd be interested in your view as to how well Cameron has conducted these negotiations.
A couple of years back we crossed words on the issue with me saying Cameron had destroyed his negotiation position by ruling out leaving the EU whereas you assured me he knew what he was doing.
Going to be some Labour supporters enjoying seeing another party spit blood at each other for a change.
Unless it’s only UK which has the problem. Is it?
As always, #Matt - our greatest cartoonist - nails it. #Brexit https://t.co/32saL4EV7k
In effect it will be a warning: Vote for nationalism and your nation will be no more.
Have I phased into another reality?