politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The numbers of Lib Dem lost deposits at GE2015 could be in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The numbers of Lib Dem lost deposits at GE2015 could be in the hundreds
One feature of the recent bout of local by-elections as well as last week’s Welsh Assembly contest in Ynys Mons has been the huge collapse in the Lib Dem vote.
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I wrote about this on pb2 just after the last election:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2010/08/golden-eggs-lib-dem-voters-in.html
My doubts as to whether Labour would pick up a disproportionate number of the positive preferences for Lib Dems seem to have been unfounded. I would still make many of the other points that I made then.
" There were two Margaret Thatchers. The first one signed the European Single Act, the Anglo-Irish Agreement and the deal which kept the Common Agricultural Policy in being. She also abolished O-levels and presided over steady increases in public spending, often without securing better value for money. The second one was the warrior queen who defeated the Argentinians, the trade unions, the nationalised industries and the defeatists – the real “enemy within” – who thought that Britain was doomed to perpetual decline. As a result, many Tories came to regard her as the once and future leader: the standard against which all future chieftains should be judged. That is also unwise. As with Churchill, the circumstances that made her necessary are unlikely to be repeated, which is just as well. We should not want politics to consist of endless threats to national survival.
Not that we were exactly unthreatened back in 2010. I suspect that Mr Cameron’s fixity of economic purpose has won him more public regard than has yet shown up in the opinion polls. The pilot that weathered the storm finds it easy to claim respect. It would be easier still if his party would complete its post-Thatcher rehab and recognise strong leadership in a contemporary idiom."
Ed = Dave's Ace
I think Cameron has learnt a useful lesson from his holiday on the Portuguese coast.
If you boil squid alive their eyes stop swivelling.
They avoided losing any deposits, coming closest in Glasgow East with 5.03%:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGtQck5wOU5mN1lQSjIydkZRQTNWbFE#gid=0
Too often we talk of open primaries when we actually mean an open caucus. A meeting, whether open to party members, party supporters or members of the public, is a caucus, not an open primary. An Open Primary is quite different.
Open primary. "All voters on the electoral register can take part in an open primary and may cast votes in a ballot of any party to select that party's candidate for the forthcoming poll."
At the time I was quite circumspect, as we were still in the planning stage and I am never keen to show our hand too soon. However, now the mailshot is starting to land on doormats, the secret is out and I will write more freely... > http://votingandboating.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/a-few-weeks-ago-i-blogged-that-one-of.html
O/T Not sure which way the Test will go, but I'm liking my Draw Lay. England's position still OK but I think a result looks v likely with low scores all round.
Yes I am. I don't seem to post much these days.
Taken your advice and tweeted the LD spreadsheet:
https://twitter.com/andyjsajs
"England are winning the Ashes because Australia are poor rather than because they're particularly brilliant. "
Reminds me of Caesar and the Civil Wars.
Weiner on ITV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=YZx5I3Z-K-0
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2013/08/09/anthony-weiner-ridicules-reporter-full-annotated-transcript/
Not much. Every party will have no money after the election.
http://www.aol.co.uk/video/father-and-son-found-in-vietnam-jungle-after-40-years/517891331/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=iXOUIsu-E0Q
Relentless , shameless , cocky , ignorant , and revolting.
Weiner is a model modern politician.
McLachlan deserves a medal. Few men could go through this ;
http://www.dgstandard.co.uk/dumfries-news/local-news-dumfries/local-news-dumfriesshire/2013/08/09/msp-joan-named-in-divorce-row-51311-33708235/
And live.
Chris Christie (R) 44%
Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Jeb Bush (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (50%)
Paul Ryan (R) 44% (45%)
Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (51%)
Newt Gingrich (R) 43% (44%)
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Rand Paul (R) 43%
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Sarah Palin (R) 38%
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Cornwall North
Newbury
Somerton and Frome
Eastbourne
Lewes, Richmond Park, Guildford, Taunton Deane, Cheltenham, Devon North, Yeovil, Devon West and Torridge, Dorset North and Winchester were between 5 and 5.5%.
Conservative lost deposits in 1997
Rhondda
I can't see the LDs getting lower than 15% of the national vote in 2015. With a standard deviation of around 9% (perhaps lower), they might just touch 100 lost deposits, with a perfectly symmetrical vote distribution. I'd be surprise if it's 50 on the day..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD4NgHxylF0
Relentless , shameless , cocky , ignorant , and revolting.
Godfrey is a model PB Burley politician.
;^ )
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/aug/08/uk-economic-growth-strengthen-2013
It's a necessity not some cunning plan. It's almost the only option left since the lib dem base is still getting hammered year on year and they have the toxic Clegg leading them.
And if the UK state were able to collect compensation payments for the miss-selling of Economy Protection Insurance, then we would never hear from the Labour Party again.
Oh for the politicians to be subject to the risks and rewards of the bankers.
Then NannyCam is clearly the incompetent fop you are looking for.
The porn filter idea was a stupid idea.
But not as stupid as "Prime Minister Ed Miliband".
But not as stupid as "Prime Minister Ed Miliband".
Hilarious as that is we now have Prime Minister Cameron and Deputy Prime Minister Clegg which are scarcely any more stupid. So I'm afraid just because something is ridiculous does not negate it's possibility. Some people still think Boris is in with a chance after 2015 should things go pear shaped for Cammie. Boris has already proved that ridicule is not necessarily a barrier by becoming London Mayor.
Hilarious as that is we now have Prime Minister Cameron and Deputy Prime Minister Clegg which are scarcely any more stupid. So I'm afraid just because something is ridiculous does not negate it's possibility. Some people still think Boris is in with a chance after 2015 should things go pear shaped for Cammie. Boris has already proved that ridicule is not necessarily a barrier by becoming London Mayor.
"Ridicule is nothing to be scared of."
Indeed.
An alternative would have been to include filtering software on the modems that ISPs send out which could be configured by parents to restrict whatever they wanted. Then of course set a password so the kid couldn't change the settings without you knowing. If they are being smart and wipe the router to remove the setting -- ban them from using the computer until they learn their lesson. Of course, this doesn't stop access to similar material over 3/4G, but I know that mobile providers offer filtering services on their networks.
This way the parent is in control, rather than handing off their responsibility to the state. All that the government should do is offer advice on its gov.uk website about how to set these things up.
Child porn is another matter, I am in favour of that being filtered. But I do realise it is a slippery slope.
The legislation and law is already in place with a dedicated police task force to tackle child porn. By all means increase the funding to those task forces if you want results since they have the required skills and knowledge of the crimes and the dark internet to tackle it. Filtering is just Cammie posturing away as usual.
Zero-hours contracts, for example.
As for little Ed, I tend to think the idea of an ineffectual policy wonk like him crusading for workers rights negates his posturing even more than certain labour councils are. Prominent lib dem government ministers have also postured on zero hour contracts and they are supposed to have some say in policy. Only theoretically of course
https://www.youtube.com/embed/o1LJTZ1UwEc
Labour, on average, went up 7.1%. Tories went down 14.3%
It was a very bad night for Labour. A swing of 10.7% since after 2010 mostly.
Real elections, real votes. Not opinion polls.
Some ISPs have long made 'family friendly' features a selling point and no doubt it pays off. You might have to pay slightly more since maintaining the filter and keeping everything running smoothly at the customer service end in the event of problems will entail more work.
As long as ISPs clearly and accurately describe, label and advertise their services then there is no problem. Sadly ISPs have been in trouble before for being dishonest over what they are offering. Though that was mainly overblown and false claims about speed and some customer service/migration problems IIRC.
Purists may not like this "cumulative swing" as they would not be representative. But local elections themselves are not representative. There is a big difference between London and Shire Counties elections.
Pgs 6&7 Haverings most wanted
Very good I hadn't considered a second election. But the loss of councillors matters more than deposits in my opinion.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRQFL3ZCcAApYWu.jpg:large
("Do you think Labour will win Surbiton?" referred to the place, not PB's surbiton!)
Great news for the PB Burleys.
;^ )
The Edinburgh Pandas @TheJockPandas
So we can claim asylum now right?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dERLZGRKazJLSmxnLVpnQktKNEpxT3c#gid=0
Wealden recorded the 30th highest Tory share at 56.56%.
You are trying to quantify into a single exact figure something which is a combination of different patterns . It is possible to combine say 6 month's results and average the party's vote shares but even here you must be careful When the 6 month rule comes in in November then the following by elections will have a heavy Conservative bias in the number of seats fought .
I accept purists will not agree but this is the second best thing. What does Rallings 7 Thrasher do when they extrapolate local by-elections to the national scene. More or less the same thing, I suppose.
Total votes is not we should be looking for but the overall swing.
What is this 6-month rule?
Groundwar fails to be assessed. Alert the NEC to send a inquiring team to Swindon as they were spotted canvassing a street in the wrong ward yesterday on local by-election day!!