I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Many of the GOP establishment will back Hillary over Trump and of course she has now said the Iraq War was a mistake too
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
The latest Tory members poll has Liam Fox leading, whether he quite fits the bill you set out is another matter. The biggest beneficiaries of a narrow Remain vote are likely to be UKIP, especially if Cameron succeeds Osborne, they could be kingmakers in a hung parliament
The fact that Liam Fox, despite all his obvious and massive flaws, can lead this shows what a boost Leave supporters can get. If May or Johnson or whoever else backed Leave I now think they would be a shoo-in for next leader. Even a telegenic minor fish like Patel would be in a strong position.
Yes, we shall see who comes out for BREXIT from the big guns
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Trump seriously messed up so by aggressively blaming 9/11 on Bush - at least before ST. He has to win the GOP first and remarks like that will turnout the anti-trumpers more than it will fire up his own core vote.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
"To conservative critics, Trump’s comments on 9/11 made him sound like a Democrat."
Ouch.
I think it was a calculated gamble.
He thinks he's far enough ahead in SC / in the GOP race to take risks - this was part of a pivot to the centre which he could execute in the most visible manner only while Jeb is still in the race.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
Presumably not including voting for Jeremy Corbyn
I will campaign against him in any leadership election, vote against him, resign my membership if he wins and abstain or vote UKIP in any GE where he is up against Corbyn.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Even in Scotland the debate is rather dull as independence is no longer a serious possibility now that everything the SNP claimed prior to the referendum has been shown to be wrong.
Saying that should liven things up for you if that are any Nats within earshot
Its balanced out by everything Better Together said being shown to be wrong as well.
Exactly, everything they said would happen if we voted YES has come to pass, must be getting very embarrassing for their sockpuppets in Scotland. However given it was muppets like Scottp ,they still whinge on about SNPBAD, unbelievable how stupid they are.
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Trump seriously messed up so by aggressively blaming 9/11 on Bush - at least before ST. He has to win the GOP first and remarks like that will turnout the anti-trumpers more than it will fire up his own core vote.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
"To conservative critics, Trump’s comments on 9/11 made him sound like a Democrat."
Ouch.
I think it was a calculated gamble.
He thinks he's far enough ahead in SC / in the GOP race to take risks - this was part of a pivot to the centre which he could execute in the most visible manner only while Jeb is still in the race.
It's a hell of a place to do it, right in the middle of South Carolina, where W is very popular still. Someone else may have waited till the rust belt or some such.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I think Osborne himself knew, once upon a time, that he had too colourful a CV to be PM. However in recent days I think he's convinced himself - following the election win - that he can overcome this and engineer an unlikely personal triumph. It's an error.
We all have a past. Most of us learn from it, and move on.
It's his "CV" and behaviour since he became Chancellor and First Minister of State that concerns me the most.
Nothing I've heard, read or experienced of him since has caused me to reassess my belief that, yes, he's clever but he's also a highly machiavellian and narcissistic individual, who's nonetheless rather socially awkward and quite insecure, and prone to vindictiveness.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
Presumably not including voting for Jeremy Corbyn
I will campaign against him in any leadership election, vote against him, resign my membership if he wins and abstain or vote UKIP in any GE where he is up against Corbyn.
The nightmare would be Fox vs Osbourn?
Very much doubt it'd be Fox. But I would vote for Fox.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I think Osborne himself knew, once upon a time, that he had too colourful a CV to be PM. However in recent days I think he's convinced himself - following the election win - that he can overcome this and engineer an unlikely personal triumph. It's an error.
This CV is now well known and that isn't what damages him. The hookers and coke stories and Bullingdon etc etc etc, does no more damage than the mucky stuff in Cameron's background, which has shown to be the square root of f##k all.
What really does for him is his Brown-ian approach to being chancellor and the magic bad-Factor where people just dislike him regardless of his actions. Some people got it, some people don't.
Cameron's ratings have taken a big hit, not from stories about pigs heads, but his bulls##t stories about his EU deal.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
Presumably not including voting for Jeremy Corbyn
I will campaign against him in any leadership election, vote against him, resign my membership if he wins and abstain or vote UKIP in any GE where he is up against Corbyn.
The nightmare would be Fox vs Osbourn?
Very much doubt it'd be Fox. But I would vote for Fox.
I would prefer Paterson over Fox. Although I would vote for any Eurosceptic over Osborne. Heck, I would refuse to vote Tory with Osborne leading.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
If it is Leave he won't be leader but if it is Remain then that is still a win for him, no matter the margin
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
But you are assuming that the children will have the same allegiance as their parents.
Presumably the political allegience of the candidates children would be something for the electorate to consider.
It is rather bizarre that the only elected Lords are the hereditaries! Such is the bodged job that is our constitution!
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
If it is Leave he won't be leader but if it is Remain then that is still a win for him, no matter the margin
Totally disagree. A narrow Remain vote is just as toxic to him - see my post below.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
What really does for him is his Brown-ian approach to being chancellor.
Yup, claiming to have abolished boom and bust, presiding over the biggest crash in history, nationalising lots of bankrupt banks, just like Gordo.
Oh, wait...
Well Osborne has splurged and he better hope we don't have a bust and you know what I mean he has this very Brown-ian habit for trying to hide the bad and getting caught out on it. He has also repeatedly kicked some tough decisions into the long grass and bottled some big sensible reforms.
Most recently he has had to back down on tax credit cuts and now we have this pension stuff brewing up.
I have said for years the Tories should have had Hammond at CoE, he would have bored everybody to death, but I think he would have taken a less political approach to the job.
I really wish Arsenal didn't have to play Barcelona.
Haha I laid Suarez Hat Trick
Did you see his 2nd and 3rd goals?!!
The third should not have counted - he was in the box when Messi played the penalty. They do give up some chances so perhaps we might have an outside chance. My team would be Cech, Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Gibbs, Chambers, Coquelin, Ramsey, Monreal, Ozil and Sanchez. Two banks of four and try to hit them on the break.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
Can you stop being a depressingly stupid twat? Or do you actually not understand the politics?
I presumed your ludicrous threader was just you flailing around looking for a subject, so you chose an old and duvious favourite, but I start to wonder if you are significantly dimmer than you make out.
I don't wish to think this, so stop being an arse. Ta.
As I thought, the diehard Leavers, who bang on so much about the undemocratic EU, don't have a grip on the very most basic bit of democracy.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
If it is Leave he won't be leader but if it is Remain then that is still a win for him, no matter the margin
Totally disagree. A narrow Remain vote is just as toxic to him - see my post below.
Some Tory voters will go to UKIP certainly but having won the referendum, even if narrowly, his chances of being Tory leader remain on track
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
Presumably not including voting for Jeremy Corbyn
I will campaign against him in any leadership election, vote against him, resign my membership if he wins and abstain or vote UKIP in any GE where he is up against Corbyn.
The nightmare would be Fox vs Osbourn?
Very much doubt it'd be Fox. But I would vote for Fox.
I would prefer Paterson over Fox. Although I would vote for any Eurosceptic over Osborne. Heck, I would refuse to vote Tory with Osborne leading.
Owen Paterson, Jesse Norman, or Michael Gove would be my primary choices at the moment. I am open-minded to Liz Truss, Justine Greening and Priti Patel too.
Theresa May would probably have been in poll position had she not bottled it.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
But you are assuming that the children will have the same allegiance as their parents.
Presumably the political allegience of the candidates children would be something for the electorate to consider.
It is rather bizarre that the only elected Lords are the hereditaries! Such is the bodged job that is our constitution!
A more exclusive electorate than the relatively enormous college of cardinals.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
If it is Leave he won't be leader but if it is Remain then that is still a win for him, no matter the margin
Totally disagree. A narrow Remain vote is just as toxic to him - see my post below.
Some Tory voters will go to UKIP certainly but having won the referendum, even if narrowly, his chances of being Tory leader remain on track
No, that's not correct. He has to win that leadership contest first, and that's down to the MPs and the party members. I'm saying a narrow Remain vote would keep the issue very much alive, and the EU would be watched liked a hawk to see what happened next, and the manner in which such a pyrrhic victory would be won would fracture his soft backbench support.
It would also weigh very heavily in the minds of the ordinary party members, who'd feel cheated and be looking for a credible Leave candidate.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
Do you have any sympathy for the Scot Nats ?
I am merely commenting on the politics of the situation.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
Can you stop being a depressingly stupid twat? Or do you actually not understand the politics?
I presumed your ludicrous threader was just you flailing around looking for a subject, so you chose an old and duvious favourite, but I start to wonder if you are significantly dimmer than you make out.
I don't wish to think this, so stop being an arse. Ta.
As I thought, the diehard Leavers, who bang on so much about the undemocratic EU, don't have a grip on the very most basic bit of democracy.
I'm afraid SeanT is right: you invariably embarrass yourself whenever you post on this subject.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
Alastair the issue is the reaction within the Conservative party to the result. Not the reaction in a wider context.
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Trump seriously messed up so by aggressively blaming 9/11 on Bush - at least before ST. He has to win the GOP first and remarks like that will turnout the anti-trumpers more than it will fire up his own core vote.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
"To conservative critics, Trump’s comments on 9/11 made him sound like a Democrat."
Ouch.
I think it was a calculated gamble.
He thinks he's far enough ahead in SC / in the GOP race to take risks - this was part of a pivot to the centre which he could execute in the most visible manner only while Jeb is still in the race.
It's a hell of a place to do it, right in the middle of South Carolina, where W is very popular still. Someone else may have waited till the rust belt or some such.
True - unless you think there is a chance that Jeb won't make it that far...
What really does for him is his Brown-ian approach to being chancellor.
Yup, claiming to have abolished boom and bust, presiding over the biggest crash in history, nationalising lots of bankrupt banks, just like Gordo.
Oh, wait...
I have said for years the Tories should have had Hammond at CoE, he would have bored everybody to death, but I think he would have taken a less political approach to the job.
Hammond has shown that he is a RHINO minister judged by his performance at the FO. Unsuitable to be CofE.
Many posts on this thread are very reminiscent of what we saw regularly on here in late 2014 and early 2015 - lots of people on the right absolutely furious with Cameron - Cameron had insulted them - treated them with contempt - going to defect to UKIP - no way were they going to vote Con - Con would have no chance at the GE - Cameron had screwed up - Cameron would have won easily if he had done what they wanted - but no, he'd thrown it all away etc etc.
You know what happened.
And now we are watching an action replay - except of course these people are even more angry now.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
Alastair the issue is the reaction within the Conservative party to the result. Not the reaction in a wider context.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
But you are assuming that the children will have the same allegiance as their parents.
Presumably the political allegience of the candidates children would be something for the electorate to consider.
It is rather bizarre that the only elected Lords are the hereditaries! Such is the bodged job that is our constitution!
It was only that way because of Labour's decision to take a partisan hacksaw to the constitution rather than to do the job properly and in consultation with the other stakeholders
As I thought, the diehard Leavers, who bang on so much about the undemocratic EU, don't have a grip on the very most basic bit of democracy.
Why should I waste a second on educating an overpaid gimp like you? But it seems you need it
For the last time, a losing patriotic cause is one of the most potent in politics. From the Jacobite 45 to Hitler's Stab in the Back to the Scottish indyref it is singularly fertile and fecund, and changes human emotions, like almost nothing else.
IF Cameron loses his vote, that's it, he's out, we're out, end of. Politics will shift into a new era (for good or ill) which no one can predict. UK outside the EU. But if he narrowly wins (which seems the most likely result at the mo) then a large chunk - maybe a majority - of the Tory party will turn on Cameron with ferocious loathing, as the man who sold a fake deal and deceived a nation.
It is human and it is inevitable. I would feel it myself, and I'm not even that eurosceptic any more (I might even vote IN, I am genuinely undecided). The Tory party will purge itself of the REMAINIANS in a fit of self hatred, and a sceptic leadership will take over. This motivation will be reinforced as, inevitably, the EU demands more powers from a Britain which has just voted IN.
That's what will happen. Emotionally. The only possible way of avoiding it is a massive REMAIN win which silences sceptics for decades. This seems unlikely.
So now you're learned, and you can shut the F up.
The usual splenetic claptrap from you.
What we're already seeing is committed Leavers preparing for the contingency of defeat. They're not prepared to accept that with grace and instead are looking to how they can subvert the democratic will of the British people.
A massive Remain win won't silence them: we had one of those in 1975 and by 1983 one of the main parties was campaigning for withdrawal. For a group that professes to be so concerned about democracy, diehard Leave supporters show no respect for it.
The problem with the CNBC debate was that the questions were often both gotcha and biased. All the panel were liberals. Several networks (and candidates) made the comment that none of them would be voting in a Republican primary.
In fact the CNBC debate was so badly received that the network took a serious ratings hit to the benefit of Fox Business, which for a while almost matched them.
The ABC debate the other day invited a known conservative and Fox News contributor to join the panel.
The problem with the CBS debate was that although the questions were fair (tough and designed to get candidates off their talking points), it turned into a barfight, in good and true South Carolina politics tradition.
Moderator John Dickerson was asked why he didn't intervene more, and made the standard response that he felt it was worth letting the candidates go at it, whereas if he had intervened more the story might have been him rather than the candidates.
The Democrats must have enjoyed it - the Republicans should be way beyond relitigating the Iraq War, or blaming Bush 43 for 9/11.
I think it was Trump's worst debate and on a couple of topics he sounded like a Democrat. He was almost screaming on occasion.
CBS is unlikely to take much serious flack.
I checked the delegate totals out of interest, and while the GOP have fairly equal totals in low double figures, on the Democrat side, Sanders has 44, Clinton has 384. The Democrats have 'super delegates', and pretty much all are with Hillary. The fix is in.
Speaking of Hillary, State released another batch of her emails Friday, of which 81 were classified. The last court ordered email release will be on Feb 29, the day before the SEC primary.
The FBI - with 150 agents working on her case - has reportedly recovered her deleted emails, and is bypassing State who were being obstructive and working directly with the intel agencies.
Many posts on this thread are very reminiscent of what we saw regularly on here in late 2014 and early 2015 - lots of people on the right absolutely furious with Cameron - Cameron had insulted them - treated them with contempt - going to defect to UKIP - no way were they going to vote Con - Con would have no chance at the GE - Cameron had screwed up - Cameron would have won easily if he had done what they wanted - but no, he'd thrown it all away etc etc.
You know what happened.
And now we are watching an action replay - except of course these people are even more angry now.
Exactly.
The harbingers of doom are the same ones who said Cameron would lose the Indyref and the GE
We are about a week away from SeanT enthusiastically endorsing Cameron again.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
Alastair the issue is the reaction within the Conservative party to the result. Not the reaction in a wider context.
Spot on.
A thought experiment: Remain win the referendum. You then want a "sound" leader for the Conservative party (incidentally, the names bandied on this thread are so weak I'd have thought they'd have made anyone halfway savvy reconsider using this as a touchstone). What do you want the policy of this "sound" leader to be to the EU?
Many posts on this thread are very reminiscent of what we saw regularly on here in late 2014 and early 2015 - lots of people on the right absolutely furious with Cameron - Cameron had insulted them - treated them with contempt - going to defect to UKIP - no way were they going to vote Con - Con would have no chance at the GE - Cameron had screwed up - Cameron would have won easily if he had done what they wanted - but no, he'd thrown it all away etc etc.
You know what happened.
And now we are watching an action replay - except of course these people are even more angry now.
And much wider.
I was fine with Cameron before the election. And broadly I'm fine with him now. Except that he is playing me for a fool on the EU. If he said "I know it's a shit deal, but I still think Remain is the better option" then I could respect that.
Here's an interesting hypothetical, let's say Remain wins 55:45, and the Conservative Party elects an Out-ter as its next leader.
Said leader romps to victory by a considerable margin against a Corbyn lead Labour in 2020, and the Eurosceptic MPs demand another referendum.
Do we have one? What happens if that produces the same result?
Personally, I think - in the near term (i.e. the next decade) - we'd need to see some meaningful land grab by Brussels to justify another referendum. Should that happen, an Out becomes almost inevitable.
As I thought, the diehard Leavers, who bang on so much about the undemocratic EU, don't have a grip on the very most basic bit of democracy.
Why should I waste a second on educating an overpaid gimp like you? But it seems you need it
For the last time, a losing patriotic cause is one of the most potent in politics. From the Jacobite 45 to Hitler's Stab in the Back to the Scottish indyref it is singularly fertile and fecund, and changes human emotions, like almost nothing else.
IF Cameron loses his vote, that's it, he's out, we're out, end of. Politics will shift into a new era (for good or ill) which no one can predict. UK outside the EU. But if he narrowly wins (which seems the most likely result at the mo) then a large chunk - maybe a majority - of the Tory party will turn on Cameron with ferocious loathing, as the man who sold a fake deal and deceived a nation.
It is human and it is inevitable. I would feel it myself, and I'm not even that eurosceptic any more (I might even vote IN, I am genuinely undecided). The Tory party will purge itself of the REMAINIANS in a fit of self hatred, and a sceptic leadership will take over. This motivation will be reinforced as, inevitably, the EU demands more powers from a Britain which has just voted IN.
That's what will happen. Emotionally. The only possible way of avoiding it is a massive REMAIN win which silences sceptics for decades. This seems unlikely.
So now you're learned, and you can shut the F up.
The usual splenetic claptrap from you.
What we're already seeing is committed Leavers preparing for the contingency of defeat. They're not prepared to accept that with grace and instead are looking to how they can subvert the democratic will of the British people.
A massive Remain win won't silence them: we had one of those in 1975 and by 1983 one of the main parties was campaigning for withdrawal. For a group that professes to be so concerned about democracy, diehard Leave supporters show no respect for it.
Such pomposity. If Remain, win, by whatever margin, that's fine. I'll content myself with schadenfreude as the EU lurches from one crisis to another. It's broken.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
Alastair the issue is the reaction within the Conservative party to the result. Not the reaction in a wider context.
Spot on.
A thought experiment: Remain win the referendum. You then want a "sound" leader for the Conservative party (incidentally, the names bandied on this thread are so weak I'd have thought they'd have made anyone halfway savvy reconsider using this as a touchstone). What do you want the policy of this "sound" leader to be to the EU?
1. Reform it from within. 2. Oppose EC budget increases and propose annual cuts of 10% every year. 3. Fight tooth and nail for UK interests and instruct the civil servants and Ministers accordingly. 4. Look for any shift of power away from the UK to run a referendum on that. 5. Have every directive from the EC scrutinised by the HoC. 6. UK Bill of Rights and HRA change etc etc.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can sUmunna
Anything could happen, but
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51%
I don't wish to think this, so stop being an arse. Ta.
As I thought, the diehard Leavers, w.
Why should I waste a second on educating an overpaid gimp like you? But it seems you need it
For the last time, a losing patriotic cause is one of the most potent in politics. From the Jacobite 45 to Hitler's Stab in the Back to the Scottish indyref it is singularly fertile and fecund, and changes human emotions, like almost nothing else.
IF Cameron loses his vote, that's it, he's out, we're out, end of. Politics will shift into a new era (for good or ill) which no one can predict. UK outside the EU. But if he narrowly wins (which seems the most likely result at the mo) then a large chunk - maybe a majority - of the Tory party will turn on Cameron with ferocious loathing, as the man who sold a fake deal and deceived a nation.
It is human and it is inevitable. I would feel it myself, and I'm not even that eurosceptic any more (I might even vote IN, I am genuinely undecided). The Tory party will purge itself of the REMAINIANS in a fit of self hatred, and a sceptic leadership will take over. This motivation will be reinforced as, inevitably, the EU demands more powers from a Britain which has just voted IN.
That's what will happen. Emotionally. The only possible way of avoiding it is a massive REMAIN win which silences sceptics for decades. This seems unlikely.
So now you're learned, and you can shut the F up.
I don't think the Tory Party can be purged of Remainers, even if there is a more sceptic leadership post Cameron, the most diehard sceptics would move to UKIP anyway. As for Europe given the populist movements across the EU I doubt there is going to be much appetite to force yet more integration on the UK, if there is more integration it will be focused on the Eurozone which we are outside along with a few Scandinavian nations and much of Eastern Europe
Many posts on this thread are very reminiscent of what we saw regularly on here in late 2014 and early 2015 - lots of people on the right absolutely furious with Cameron - Cameron had insulted them - treated them with contempt - going to defect to UKIP - no way were they going to vote Con - Con would have no chance at the GE - Cameron had screwed up - Cameron would have won easily if he had done what they wanted - but no, he'd thrown it all away etc etc. You know what happened. And now we are watching an action replay - except of course these people are even more angry now.
Guess what. The referendum is not a vote for Conservatives and against Labour. It is a vote for Cameron/Labour/Osborne/Lib Dems or against them.
Many posts on this thread are very reminiscent of what we saw regularly on here in late 2014 and early 2015 - lots of people on the right absolutely furious with Cameron - Cameron had insulted them - treated them with contempt - going to defect to UKIP - no way were they going to vote Con - Con would have no chance at the GE - Cameron had screwed up - Cameron would have won easily if he had done what they wanted - but no, he'd thrown it all away etc etc.
You know what happened.
And now we are watching an action replay - except of course these people are even more angry now.
Exactly. The harbingers of doom are the same ones who said Cameron would lose the Indyref and the GE We are about a week away from SeanT enthusiastically endorsing Cameron again.
Cameron is on same side as the SNP and most of the other parties.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after a narrow Remain vote in EUref, then leading the Tories to largest party in a hung parliament in 2020 but reliant on UKIP and DUP support. I can then see him going down to a heavy defeat in 2025 against Chuka Umunna
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
Alastair the issue is the reaction within the Conservative party to the result. Not the reaction in a wider context.
Spot on.
A thought experiment: Remain win the referendum. You then want a "sound" leader for the Conservative party (incidentally, the names bandied on this thread are so weak I'd have thought they'd have made anyone halfway savvy reconsider using this as a touchstone). What do you want the policy of this "sound" leader to be to the EU?
1. Reform it from within. 2. Oppose EC budget increases and propose annual cuts of 10% every year. 3. Fight tooth and nail for UK interests and instruct the civil servants and Ministers accordingly. 4. Look for any shift of power away from the UK to run a referendum on that. 5. Have every directive from the EC scrutinised by the HoC. 6. UK Bill of Rights and HRA change etc etc.
I'm just imagining Liam Fox striding into his first European meeting to be greeted by 27 other leaders, all of whom know that he's looking for a way to extricate Britain from the EU and is itching for a fight with them.
As I thought, the diehard Leavers, who bang on so much about the undemocratic EU, don't have a grip on the very most basic bit of democracy.
Why should I waste a second on educating an overpaid gimp like you? But it seems you need it
For the last time, a losing patriotic cause is one of the most potent in politics. From the Jacobite 45 to Hitler's Stab in the Back to the Scottish indyref it is singularly fertile and fecund, and changes human emotions, like almost nothing else.
IF Cameron loses his vote, that's it, he's out, we're out, end of. Politics will shift into a new era (for good or ill) which no one can predict. UK outside the EU. But if he narrowly wins (which seems the most likely result at the mo) then a large chunk - maybe a majority - of the Tory party will turn on Cameron with ferocious loathing, as the man who sold a fake deal and deceived a nation.
It is human and it is inevitable. I would feel it myself, and I'm not even that eurosceptic any more (I might even vote IN, I am genuinely undecided). The Tory party will purge itself of the REMAINIANS in a fit of self hatred, and a sceptic leadership will take over. This motivation will be reinforced as, inevitably, the EU demands more powers from a Britain which has just voted IN.
That's what will happen. Emotionally. The only possible way of avoiding it is a massive REMAIN win which silences sceptics for decades. This seems unlikely.
So now you're learned, and you can shut the F up.
The usual splenetic claptrap from you.
What we're already seeing is committed Leavers preparing for the contingency of defeat. They're not prepared to accept that with grace and instead are looking to how they can subvert the democratic will of the British people.
A massive Remain win won't silence them: we had one of those in 1975 and by 1983 one of the main parties was campaigning for withdrawal. For a group that professes to be so concerned about democracy, diehard Leave supporters show no respect for it.
LEAVE = Britain running her own affairs REMAIN = Britain being run from Brussels
I see earlier in the thread talk of UKIP chances in Wales Assembly elections . It should be noted that Farage's attempts at imposing Hamilton , Reckless and his friend Alexandra Phillips as UKIP leading WA list candidates has gone down like a lead balloon among UKIP members and resulted in the resignation from the party of the only elected UKIP Welsh councillor Kevin Mahoney .
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Trump seriously messed up so by aggressively blaming 9/11 on Bush - at least before ST. He has to win the GOP first and remarks like that will turnout the anti-trumpers more than it will fire up his own core vote.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
"To conservative critics, Trump’s comments on 9/11 made him sound like a Democrat."
Ouch.
I think it was a calculated gamble.
He thinks he's far enough ahead in SC / in the GOP race to take risks - this was part of a pivot to the centre which he could execute in the most visible manner only while Jeb is still in the race.
It's interesting to speculate how much of Sanders' support could transfer to Trump in the general if Hillary is the nominee. Probably more than you'd think, especially if he ends up getting chewed up by the Clinton machine in a bitter contest.
Here's an interesting hypothetical, let's say Remain wins 55:45, and the Conservative Party elects an Out-ter as its next leader.
Said leader romps to victory by a considerable margin against a Corbyn lead Labour in 2020, and the Eurosceptic MPs demand another referendum.
Do we have one? What happens if that produces the same result?
Personally, I think - in the near term (i.e. the next decade) - we'd need to see some meaningful land grab by Brussels to justify another referendum. Should that happen, an Out becomes almost inevitable.
I think Britain will (in some form) very likely leave the EU in the next 10-20 years (but probably not this year). The eurozone is going to Federalise (it has to, surely?) and then it will naturally start to caucus against the peripheral states, and assert its legal, political, and demographic dominance. Why would it not? It would be impossible for this not to happen, with the best will in the world (and the French do not have the best will in the world).
That's when we leave, or move to associate member status. Both the left and right wing will want this, as the only way of asserting UK sovereignty.
And there must a good chance it will happen without a referendum.
In that case Sweden and Denmark would also leave the EU as they are outside the Eurozone too (and their voters still hostile to the Euro) and we would end up in an EEA arrangement with them alongside Norway and Switzerland and maybe some nations in the Eastern block
There seems to be an opinion on here that if David Cameron only narrowly wins the referendum or even loses it his career will be terminated by the angry right of the party. As I understand about 100 Tory MP's will campaign for out leaving 230 supporting David Cameron. That is 2 to 1 in his favour and while some on the right might fume he will continue in his role until 2019 and no doubt undertake a substantial reshuffle bringing in the likes of Fox and Pritel, moving Hunt and even Osborne and building a party that will dominate politics for a decade.
I'm just imagining Liam Fox striding into his first European meeting to be greeted by 27 other leaders, all of whom know that he's looking for a way to extricate Britain from the EU and is itching for a fight with them.
Tony Blair was desperate to be a player in the EU and failed miserably despite going out of his way to show what a good little European Unioner he was.
As long as we are outside of the Eurozone we will be the EU's whipping boy.
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I can see Osborne becoming Tory leader after
Anything could happen, but under a narrow Remain vote I don't think Osborne becomes leader.
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
A stolen victory?
Yes. It's a somewhat butchered phrase but I think you know what I mean.
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.</p>
So if Leave win with 51% that's a glorious expression of the popular will but if Remain win with 51% that's a disgusting stolen victory?
Alastair the issue is the reaction within the Conservative party to the result. Not the reaction in a wider context.
Spot on.
A thought experiment: Remain win the referendum. You then want a "sound" leader for the Conservative party (incidentally, the names bandied on this thread are so weak I'd have thought they'd have made anyone halfway savvy reconsider using this as a touchstone). What do you want the policy of this "sound" leader to be to the EU?
1. Reform it from within. 2. Oppose EC budget increases and propose annual cuts of 10% every year. 3. Fight tooth and nail for UK interests and instruct the civil servants and Ministers accordingly. 4. Look for any shift of power away from the UK to run a referendum on that. 5. Have every directive from the EC scrutinised by the HoC. 6. UK Bill of Rights and HRA change etc etc.
I'm just imagining Liam Fox striding into his first European meeting to be greeted by 27 other leaders, all of whom know that he's looking for a way to extricate Britain from the EU and is itching for a fight with them.
So a fight leads to deadlock and then the rest see what accomodations they have to make. We could even see tabled from the UK a set of fundamental reforms in a new "Way Forward" to force the EC to confront its dysfunctional nature.
Many posts on this thread are very reminiscent of what we saw regularly on here in late 2014 and early 2015 - lots of people on the right absolutely furious with Cameron - Cameron had insulted them - treated them with contempt - going to defect to UKIP - no way were they going to vote Con - Con would have no chance at the GE - Cameron had screwed up - Cameron would have won easily if he had done what they wanted - but no, he'd thrown it all away etc etc.
You know what happened.
And now we are watching an action replay - except of course these people are even more angry now.
...... I was fine with Cameron before the election. And broadly I'm fine with him now. Except that he is playing me for a fool on the EU. .....
This seems to be the main reaction from the voters. It has removed my thoughts that he was playing straight with us.
Here's an interesting hypothetical, let's say Remain wins 55:45, and the Conservative Party elects an Out-ter as its next leader.
Said leader romps to victory by a considerable margin against a Corbyn lead Labour in 2020, and the Eurosceptic MPs demand another referendum.
Do we have one? What happens if that produces the same result?
Personally, I think - in the near term (i.e. the next decade) - we'd need to see some meaningful land grab by Brussels to justify another referendum. Should that happen, an Out becomes almost inevitable.
I think Britain will (in some form) very likely leave the EU in the next 10-20 years (but probably not this year). The eurozone is going to Federalise (it has to, surely?) and then it will naturally start to caucus against the peripheral states, and assert its legal, political, and demographic dominance. Why would it not? It would be impossible for this not to happen, with the best will in the world (and the French do not have the best will in the world).
That's when we leave, or move to associate member status. Both the left and right wing will want this, as the only way of asserting UK sovereignty.
And there must a good chance it will happen without a referendum.
A good summary, and I don't think I'd disagree with any of that.
Except, perhaps, about the reason behind exerting dominance. I think the Eurozone is likely to be very internally focused over the next decade, trying to make the changes it needs to make to survive. That means, some form of common Eurozone debt issuance, and also some common bank guarantee system. This mutualisation of liabilities will mean that the Eurozone itself will need some kind of government, and an EU that has some members that are part of the Eurozone and some that are not, just simply doesn't work.
The real shame about this whole process is that David Cameron had the opportunity to bring together the "never will be" countries in the EU - Sweden, Denmark, and ourselves. (Perhaps also one or two of the Eastern European states.) We should have spent two or three years getting a sensible settlement organised, taking us out of the political structure of the EU (sort of EEA Plus), but in return taking us away from the potential liabilities of the Eurozone.
There seems to be an opinion on here that if David Cameron only narrowly wins the referendum or even loses it his career will be terminated by the angry right of the party. As I understand about 100 Tory MP's will campaign for out leaving 230 supporting David Cameron. That is 2 to 1 in his favour and while some on the right might fume he will continue in his role until 2019 and no doubt undertake a substantial reshuffle bringing in the likes of Fox and Pritel, moving Hunt and even Osborne and building a party that will dominate politics for a decade.
You are looking at probably 120+ for Leave and another 50 or so aggrieved with Cameron & Osborne. Enough to have him removed.
So the polling data seems to reflect the pbCOM posters profile. Selfish, reactionary, geriatric, Tories. Next.
Speak for yourself sunshine!
Actually I recall a year or two back that we had a PB survey and the political allegiences were not far from the national figures, albeit a little richer in LibDems.
It is easy to confuse the over-heated noises made by the kippers with them being popular, after all they do make that mistake themselves.
Andrew Rawnsley 'Britain's future in Europe lies in the hands of the Labour Party'
'Work has begun on the ground campaign by those Labour people who appreciate the vertiginous scale of the stakes. The sheets used by Labour canvassers for the May elections recently had an extra question added to them, which asks about voting intentions in the referendum. It is also gradually dawning that the referendum campaign will be quite unlike a general election and fought to entirely different rules. In a general election, the government is chosen by swing voters in marginal seats. In the referendum, every vote has equal weight. Voters in safe seats are every bit as important as voters in marginals. It will be a particular challenge persuading Labour folk to cast a ballot in the referendum when they live in seats so safe that many have got out of the habit of voting.
For the only time in his life, David Cameron will be desperate for a Labour campaign to be a stonking success. His place in history and Britain’s place in Europe depend on it. The Tory leader may have started this, but it will be Labour people who decide how it ends.' http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-labour-tories
I see earlier in the thread talk of UKIP chances in Wales Assembly elections . It should be noted that Farage's attempts at imposing Hamilton , Reckless and his friend Alexandra Phillips as UKIP leading WA list candidates has gone down like a lead balloon among UKIP members and resulted in the resignation from the party of the only elected UKIP Welsh councillor Kevin Mahoney .
True. The usual fault lines inside UKIP dueto Farage continue but they may still get more votes than the LDs and because this time they are offering up people in the regional lists, could gain some seats.
There seems to be an opinion on here that if David Cameron only narrowly wins the referendum or even loses it his career will be terminated by the angry right of the party. As I understand about 100 Tory MP's will campaign for out leaving 230 supporting David Cameron. That is 2 to 1 in his favour and while some on the right might fume he will continue in his role until 2019 and no doubt undertake a substantial reshuffle bringing in the likes of Fox and Pritel, moving Hunt and even Osborne and building a party that will dominate politics for a decade.
You are looking at probably 120+ for Leave and another 50 or so aggrieved with Cameron & Osborne. Enough to have him removed.
I simply do not accept that. David Cameron is a winner and the majority in the party are hardly going to remove him when he has already stated he will stand down by 2019.
Here's an interesting hypothetical, let's say Remain wins 55:45, and the Conservative Party elects an Out-ter as its next leader.
Said leader romps to victory by a considerable margin against a Corbyn lead Labour in 2020, and the Eurosceptic MPs demand another referendum.
Do we have one? What happens if that produces the same result?
Personally, I think - in the near term (i.e. the next decade) - we'd need to see some meaningful land grab by Brussels to justify another referendum. Should that happen, an Out becomes almost inevitable.
I think Britain will (in some form) very likely leave the EU in the next 10-20 years (but probably not this year). The eurozone is going to Federalise (it has to, surely?) and then it will naturally start to caucus against the peripheral states, and assert its legal, political, and demographic dominance. Why would it not? It would be impossible for this not to happen, with the best will in the world (and the French do not have the best will in the world).
That's when we leave, or move to associate member status. Both the left and right wing will want this, as the only way of asserting UK sovereignty.
And there must a good chance it will happen without a referendum.
In that case Sweden and Denmark would also leave the EU as they are outside the Eurozone too (and their voters still hostile to the Euro) and we would end up in an EEA arrangement with them alongside Norway and Switzerland and maybe some nations in the Eastern block
That seems the natural endpoint to me. A kind of devomax, or indy-lite, for the UK.
We're already halfway there. In effect this referendum is the last death throes of europhilia, the idea we might actually be at the heart of Europe. The referendum will probably be won by REMAIN, but the cause will be dealt a final and fatal blow.
I agree on that, if we are to remain in the EU it will be in a non-Eurozone outer core, certainly we will never be 'at the heart of Europe' in the way France and Germany are
Andrew Rawnsley 'Britain's future in Europe lies in the hands of the Labour Party'..... For the only time in his life, David Cameron will be desperate for a Labour campaign to be a stonking success. His place in history and Britain’s place in Europe depend on it. The Tory leader may have started this, but it will be Labour people who decide how it ends.' http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-labour-tories
Yes what could posibly go wrong in asking Labour voter to support the Cameron proposal? Have they thought this one through? Also it may drive even more Labour voters that are anti-immigration into the arms of UKIP. "Hi I am from the Labour party and Labour want to stay in the EC"..... Clegg's tv debates reminding voters that the Lib Dems were very pro the EC could have resulted in driving down their vote at the european elections in 2014.
Just looked up train prices from London to St Ives in Cornwall. Return is £108. Splitting the journey by going via Bristol is £72. They ought to give that option to begin with instead of assuming you want to get there as fast as possible without changing.
Looking forward to Farage v Salmond on Sky. Judging by the way Anna Soubry trounced Salmond on Marr I would expect him to go the same way against Farage
Just looked up train prices from London to St Ives in Cornwall. Return is £108. Splitting the journey by going via Bristol is £72. They ought to give that option to begin with instead of assuming you want to get there as fast as possible without changing.
Simon Heffer 'Since George H.W. Bush left office in 1993 America has been ruled by a spin-obsessed sex addict, a dangerous halfwit and a clever incompetent. They all bore the imprimatur of their respective party machines. For much of America, Barack Obama is the last straw. He is the creator of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. If one of them becomes president – and I wouldn’t rule it out – and the world doesn’t like it, they know whom to blame.' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12154670/How-seven-years-of-Obama-created-Trump.html
There seems to be an opinion on here that if David Cameron only narrowly wins the referendum or even loses it his career will be terminated by the angry right of the party. As I understand about 100 Tory MP's will campaign for out leaving 230 supporting David Cameron. That is 2 to 1 in his favour and while some on the right might fume he will continue in his role until 2019 and no doubt undertake a substantial reshuffle bringing in the likes of Fox and Pritel, moving Hunt and even Osborne and building a party that will dominate politics for a decade.
You are looking at probably 120+ for Leave and another 50 or so aggrieved with Cameron & Osborne. Enough to have him removed.
I simply do not accept that. David Cameron is a winner and the majority in the party are hardly going to remove him when he has already stated he will stand down by 2019.
There seems to be an opinion on here that if David Cameron only narrowly wins the referendum or even loses it his career will be terminated by the angry right of the party. As I understand about 100 Tory MP's will campaign for out leaving 230 supporting David Cameron. That is 2 to 1 in his favour and while some on the right might fume he will continue in his role until 2019 and no doubt undertake a substantial reshuffle bringing in the likes of Fox and Pritel, moving Hunt and even Osborne and building a party that will dominate politics for a decade.
You are looking at probably 120+ for Leave and another 50 or so aggrieved with Cameron & Osborne. Enough to have him removed.
I simply do not accept that. David Cameron is a winner and the majority in the party are hardly going to remove him when he has already stated he will stand down by 2019.
Unemployment was lower in April 2008 than it is now, with a minimum at September 2004.
The real irony is that the government is subsidising millions of inefficient low skilled wealth consuming jobs through its excess borrowing.
I wonder how many people praising that strategy also praise Thatcher for NOT borrowing and subsidising inefficient nationalised industries during the 1980.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
The latest Tory members poll has Liam Fox leading, whether he quite fits the bill you set out is another matter. The biggest beneficiaries of a narrow Remain vote are likely to be UKIP, especially if Cameron succeeds Osborne, they could be kingmakers in a hung parliament
The fact that Liam Fox, despite all his obvious and massive flaws, can lead this shows what a boost Leave supporters can get. If May or Johnson or whoever else backed Leave I now think they would be a shoo-in for next leader. Even a telegenic minor fish like Patel would be in a strong position.
AS I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS.
If Bojo seizes the sceptic orb, he will surely be Tory leader. And this is his only real chance.
Yet he havers. Lacks the courage and self belief.
Maybe he:
1) Supports Remain 2) Thinks Remain will win easily 3) Thinks that the issue will then go away, everyone who is getting massively over-excited will calm down and there will be a leadership election in 2019 when the vast majority of people will have moved on
Remember where the EU comes on MORI's issues index? Nowhere.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
I think Wanderer meant, who would decide which hereditaries with LD affiliations would replace them?
My guess is that there is no provision for that so they just lose their hereditaries. Remember, it was only meant to be temporary when it was put in place, never worked out in detail.
I think 'all' (ie not just those selected to attend the Lords) the LibDem heredity peers can vote to appoint which of them are the party representatives in the Lords. I assume there are more in total than just the 4 who attend the Lords.
No. The electorate is LD hereditaries in the Lords.
If they were to all die on the same day... what would happen? Or does the legilsation just fail in that case...
Andrew Rawnsley 'Britain's future in Europe lies in the hands of the Labour Party'..... For the only time in his life, David Cameron will be desperate for a Labour campaign to be a stonking success. His place in history and Britain’s place in Europe depend on it. The Tory leader may have started this, but it will be Labour people who decide how it ends.' http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-labour-tories
Yes what could posibly go wrong in asking Labour voter to support the Cameron proposal? Have they thought this one through? Also it may drive even more Labour voters that are anti-immigration into the arms of UKIP. "Hi I am from the Labour party and Labour want to stay in the EC"..... Clegg's tv debates reminding voters that the Lib Dems were very pro the EC could have resulted in driving down their vote at the european elections in 2014.
It was a statement of the fairly obvious point that with at least of half of Tories voting Out (of course themselves then targets for UKIP) as well as virtually all of UKIP voters it will be Labour voters who will be needed for Remain to win, the likes of Alan Johnson and David Blunkett will be key in that regard
Simon Heffer 'Since George H.W. Bush left office in 1993 America has been ruled by a spin-obsessed sex addict, a dangerous halfwit and a clever incompetent. They all bore the imprimatur of their respective party machines. For much of America, Barack Obama is the last straw. He is the creator of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. If one of them becomes president – and I wouldn’t rule it out – and the world doesn’t like it, they know whom to blame.' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12154670/How-seven-years-of-Obama-created-Trump.html
America was angry after two terms of George W Bush. Though he could not stand, his party’s candidate would be punished for how Mr Bush and the lunatics around him had made America an international pariah. The financial crisis of 2008 – the collapse of Lehmann Brothers came between the conventions and polling day – was the last straw.
Not exactly - though Bush and co were at the wheel when the collapse happened, the origins of the collapse collapse dates back to the 1980s and savings and loan deregulation.
Andrew Rawnsley 'Britain's future in Europe lies in the hands of the Labour Party'..... For the only time in his life, David Cameron will be desperate for a Labour campaign to be a stonking success. His place in history and Britain’s place in Europe depend on it. The Tory leader may have started this, but it will be Labour people who decide how it ends.' http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-labour-tories
Yes what could posibly go wrong in asking Labour voter to support the Cameron proposal? Have they thought this one through? Also it may drive even more Labour voters that are anti-immigration into the arms of UKIP. "Hi I am from the Labour party and Labour want to stay in the EC"..... Clegg's tv debates reminding voters that the Lib Dems were very pro the EC could have resulted in driving down their vote at the european elections in 2014.
It was a statement of the fairly obvious point that with at least of half of Tories voting Out (of course themselves then targets for UKIP) as well as virtually all of UKIP voters it will be Labour voters who will be needed for Remain to win, the likes of Alan Johnson and David Blunkett will be key in that regard
Winning a referendum and losing Labour voters for the next elections. Now why does that remind me of SLAB?
Andrew Rawnsley 'Britain's future in Europe lies in the hands of the Labour Party'..... For the only time in his life, David Cameron will be desperate for a Labour campaign to be a stonking success. His place in history and Britain’s place in Europe depend on it. The Tory leader may have started this, but it will be Labour people who decide how it ends.' http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-labour-tories
Yes what could posibly go wrong in asking Labour voter to support the Cameron proposal? Have they thought this one through? Also it may drive even more Labour voters that are anti-immigration into the arms of UKIP. "Hi I am from the Labour party and Labour want to stay in the EC"..... Clegg's tv debates reminding voters that the Lib Dems were very pro the EC could have resulted in driving down their vote at the european elections in 2014.
It was a statement of the fairly obvious point that with at least of half of Tories voting Out (of course themselves then targets for UKIP) as well as virtually all of UKIP voters it will be Labour voters who will be needed for Remain to win, the likes of Alan Johnson and David Blunkett will be key in that regard
Tories, Labour, LDs, SNP, PC and Green should each run their own campaigns, as do the CBI and TUC. There is no need to unite under one banner, just look at the harm it did SLAB to be associated with Cameron.
Each has its own reasons for staying in and its own electorate. Stay seperate, as indeed should the kippers and BOOer Tories. Trying to unite rivals just promotes infighting.
Andrew Rawnsley 'Britain's future in Europe lies in the hands of the Labour Party'..... For the only time in his life, David Cameron will be desperate for a Labour campaign to be a stonking success. His place in history and Britain’s place in Europe depend on it. The Tory leader may have started this, but it will be Labour people who decide how it ends.' http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-labour-tories
Yes what could posibly go wrong in asking Labour voter to support the Cameron proposal? Have they thought this one through? Also it may drive even more Labour voters that are anti-immigration into the arms of UKIP. "Hi I am from the Labour party and Labour want to stay in the EC"..... Clegg's tv debates reminding voters that the Lib Dems were very pro the EC could have resulted in driving down their vote at the european elections in 2014.
It was a statement of the fairly obvious point that with at least of half of Tories voting Out (of course themselves then targets for UKIP) as well as virtually all of UKIP voters it will be Labour voters who will be needed for Remain to win, the likes of Alan Johnson and David Blunkett will be key in that regard
Winning a referendum and losing Labour voters for the next elections. Now why does that remind me of SLAB?
You are missing the point on EU ref. In EU ref 50%+ of Tories will vote Out, only 25% or so of Labour voters. In Scotland 35-40% of Labour voters voted Yes, less than 10% of Tories. It is actually the Tories who have most to lose to UKIP and Cameron may need Labour voters to get a Remain vote
Comments
He thinks he's far enough ahead in SC / in the GOP race to take risks - this was part of a pivot to the centre which he could execute in the most visible manner only while Jeb is still in the race.
I see the vile separatist agenda is spreading. Is a Scotch 'them' inferior to an e.g. Irish 'them', or migrant 'them'?
It's his "CV" and behaviour since he became Chancellor and First Minister of State that concerns me the most.
Nothing I've heard, read or experienced of him since has caused me to reassess my belief that, yes, he's clever but he's also a highly machiavellian and narcissistic individual, who's nonetheless rather socially awkward and quite insecure, and prone to vindictiveness.
He has far too many of these:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_triad
The Mail on Sunday also covered Scotland in Union's new poll: Forget #Indyref2, say 90% of voters. #GetOnWithTheJob https://t.co/7Rf8xPKStj
There will be far too much resentment and anger in the party membership at a stolen victory, and he will have his hands all over it.
What really does for him is his Brown-ian approach to being chancellor and the magic bad-Factor where people just dislike him regardless of his actions. Some people got it, some people don't.
Cameron's ratings have taken a big hit, not from stories about pigs heads, but his bulls##t stories about his EU deal.
It is rather bizarre that the only elected Lords are the hereditaries! Such is the bodged job that is our constitution!
Oh, wait...
If Remain wins by <5% it'll be put down to the success of scaremongering by Project Fear, and the fact the leadership implicitly threatened, or explicitly prevented, Conservatives that wanted to freely campaign on it.
Did you see his 2nd and 3rd goals?!!
Most recently he has had to back down on tax credit cuts and now we have this pension stuff brewing up.
I have said for years the Tories should have had Hammond at CoE, he would have bored everybody to death, but I think he would have taken a less political approach to the job.
I also wish that Man City, and Spurs also continue their cup runs...
;-)
Theresa May would probably have been in poll position had she not bottled it.
I've got a horrible feeling that Spurs will win the PL this season - it just seems to be falling into place for them.
http://tinyurl.com/yqebe
It would also weigh very heavily in the minds of the ordinary party members, who'd feel cheated and be looking for a credible Leave candidate.
You know what happened.
And now we are watching an action replay - except of course these people are even more angry now.
What we're already seeing is committed Leavers preparing for the contingency of defeat. They're not prepared to accept that with grace and instead are looking to how they can subvert the democratic will of the British people.
A massive Remain win won't silence them: we had one of those in 1975 and by 1983 one of the main parties was campaigning for withdrawal. For a group that professes to be so concerned about democracy, diehard Leave supporters show no respect for it.
In fact the CNBC debate was so badly received that the network took a serious ratings hit to the benefit of Fox Business, which for a while almost matched them.
The ABC debate the other day invited a known conservative and Fox News contributor to join the panel.
The problem with the CBS debate was that although the questions were fair (tough and designed to get candidates off their talking points), it turned into a barfight, in good and true South Carolina politics tradition.
Moderator John Dickerson was asked why he didn't intervene more, and made the standard response that he felt it was worth letting the candidates go at it, whereas if he had intervened more the story might have been him rather than the candidates.
The Democrats must have enjoyed it - the Republicans should be way beyond relitigating the Iraq War, or blaming Bush 43 for 9/11.
I think it was Trump's worst debate and on a couple of topics he sounded like a Democrat. He was almost screaming on occasion.
CBS is unlikely to take much serious flack.
I checked the delegate totals out of interest, and while the GOP have fairly equal totals in low double figures, on the Democrat side, Sanders has 44, Clinton has 384. The Democrats have 'super delegates', and pretty much all are with Hillary. The fix is in.
Speaking of Hillary, State released another batch of her emails Friday, of which 81 were classified. The last court ordered email release will be on Feb 29, the day before the SEC primary.
The FBI - with 150 agents working on her case - has reportedly recovered her deleted emails, and is bypassing State who were being obstructive and working directly with the intel agencies.
The harbingers of doom are the same ones who said Cameron would lose the Indyref and the GE
We are about a week away from SeanT enthusiastically endorsing Cameron again.
I was fine with Cameron before the election. And broadly I'm fine with him now. Except that he is playing me for a fool on the EU. If he said "I know it's a shit deal, but I still think Remain is the better option" then I could respect that.
Said leader romps to victory by a considerable margin against a Corbyn lead Labour in 2020, and the Eurosceptic MPs demand another referendum.
Do we have one? What happens if that produces the same result?
Personally, I think - in the near term (i.e. the next decade) - we'd need to see some meaningful land grab by Brussels to justify another referendum. Should that happen, an Out becomes almost inevitable.
Dead give away they weren't real caravaners, they didn't have 20 extra wing mirrors fitted...
2. Oppose EC budget increases and propose annual cuts of 10% every year.
3. Fight tooth and nail for UK interests and instruct the civil servants and Ministers accordingly.
4. Look for any shift of power away from the UK to run a referendum on that.
5. Have every directive from the EC scrutinised by the HoC.
6. UK Bill of Rights and HRA change etc etc.
REMAIN = Britain being run from Brussels
As long as we are outside of the Eurozone we will be the EU's whipping boy.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jun/17/leicester-sack-three-players-racist-thai-orgy
Though they did behave on their recent trip to Copenhagen!
Except, perhaps, about the reason behind exerting dominance. I think the Eurozone is likely to be very internally focused over the next decade, trying to make the changes it needs to make to survive. That means, some form of common Eurozone debt issuance, and also some common bank guarantee system. This mutualisation of liabilities will mean that the Eurozone itself will need some kind of government, and an EU that has some members that are part of the Eurozone and some that are not, just simply doesn't work.
The real shame about this whole process is that David Cameron had the opportunity to bring together the "never will be" countries in the EU - Sweden, Denmark, and ourselves. (Perhaps also one or two of the Eastern European states.) We should have spent two or three years getting a sensible settlement organised, taking us out of the political structure of the EU (sort of EEA Plus), but in return taking us away from the potential liabilities of the Eurozone.
Actually I recall a year or two back that we had a PB survey and the political allegiences were not far from the national figures, albeit a little richer in LibDems.
It is easy to confuse the over-heated noises made by the kippers with them being popular, after all they do make that mistake themselves.
'Work has begun on the ground campaign by those Labour people who appreciate the vertiginous scale of the stakes. The sheets used by Labour canvassers for the May elections recently had an extra question added to them, which asks about voting intentions in the referendum. It is also gradually dawning that the referendum campaign will be quite unlike a general election and fought to entirely different rules. In a general election, the government is chosen by swing voters in marginal seats. In the referendum, every vote has equal weight. Voters in safe seats are every bit as important as voters in marginals. It will be a particular challenge persuading Labour folk to cast a ballot in the referendum when they live in seats so safe that many have got out of the habit of voting.
For the only time in his life, David Cameron will be desperate for a Labour campaign to be a stonking success. His place in history and Britain’s place in Europe depend on it. The Tory leader may have started this, but it will be Labour people who decide how it ends.'
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-labour-tories
"Hi I am from the Labour party and Labour want to stay in the EC".....
Clegg's tv debates reminding voters that the Lib Dems were very pro the EC could have resulted in driving down their vote at the european elections in 2014.
http://www.splitticketing.com/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12154670/How-seven-years-of-Obama-created-Trump.html
Maybe they should rename themselves as UKBC.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=MGSC&dataset=lms&table-id=01
Unemployment was lower in April 2008 than it is now, with a minimum at September 2004.
The real irony is that the government is subsidising millions of inefficient low skilled wealth consuming jobs through its excess borrowing.
I wonder how many people praising that strategy also praise Thatcher for NOT borrowing and subsidising inefficient nationalised industries during the 1980.
Not exactly - though Bush and co were at the wheel when the collapse happened, the origins of the collapse collapse dates back to the 1980s and savings and loan deregulation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five
Each has its own reasons for staying in and its own electorate. Stay seperate, as indeed should the kippers and BOOer Tories. Trying to unite rivals just promotes infighting.