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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generatio
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour
Amongst Corbyn's own age group, those of 65+, just 11% tell ComRes they have favourable view of LAB leader, 71% say unfavourable
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(Like the Conservatives in Scotland)
Innocent face.
Lots of if's though.
Best hope for the LibDems
The middle aged remember Labour under Blair. What is left now - Corbyn's Labour - looks on that era (and that coalition of voters) with contempt.
All that remains under the fluttering, tattered standards is the Hard Left and spotty kids going with the latest Facebook fad.
Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio....
These are terrible, terrible figures for Labour. The only crumb of comfort is that if May is a disaster the PLP might actually grow a pair and do something. Heh.
I think you are right
What Mr Senior would call an impossible wet dream.
Stunning.
There are relatively few top-up Assembly Members in Wales so even if they lose all the constituencies - which would mean losing Bracon & Radnorshire, probably to the Tories - they might not have enough votes for list places. It's a long shot though.
In Scotland, I'd be very surprised if they lose both Orkney and Shetland (Orkney is possible though), and amazed if they lost both seats *and* failed to win a top-up in the Highlands & Islands.
You'd have to reckon on those constituency seats are at risk from the Carmichael scandal, but the top up nature of the vote makes it all but impossible for them to be on zero.
Nevertheless, the latest opinion polls in Scotland (https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3699/SNP-remains-dominant-while-Brexit-could-swing-Scots-behind-a-second-independence-referendum-Yes-vote.aspx) put the LibDems on the same (or maybe slightly up) on where they were in 2011. Ipsos-Mori has their list vote at 8%, which would probably get them four top-up seats. If they were to get that, and hold both the Orkney and Shetland seats (no guarantee), they would actually gain seats this year.
An Example
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/499542772203147264
https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/664767623805190145
0, 1, or 2 seats for the LibDems and I give you a fiver.
3 seats we call it quits.
More than 3, you pay me a fiver.
You Spurs!
*I'd use stronger language but I'm no potty mouth.
I am not accountable for the behaviour of Trotskyist idiots, either.
But no longer, perhaps...
Must have a death wish.
https://twitter.com/SkyMurnaghan/status/698818183864717312?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Less than 4 would be a shockingly bad result for them if, as expected, Labour slip back substantially outside the valleys. The real issue in Wales is that with two parties of roughly equal strength who hate each other fighting for second, it's very hard to see how Labour could be removed from power, something that is desperately needed for both Wales and Welsh Labour.
Must admit to being mighty surprised to see Labour drop 2% points in the last ComRes VI online poll, when all media attention appeared fixed on the EU negotiations fall-out and Jeremy Corbyn seemed to have a breather from attack. – If he can’t rally the polls during the good times, when can he?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018#Poll_results
I noticed Nigel Farage is trying to tone down his rhetoric and appear more statesmanlike.
OK, it worked for Obama, but the Jezziah is not the Obamessiah. He is too old, too dull, too stupid and too tainted by decades of dubious contacts.
If the long shot came in and say, UKIP took second in the vote but still only 40-50 seats to Labour's 150, what would that do to the debate on reform.
(PS on drugs - don't forget cannabis is a powerful and effective painkiller. Queen Victoria used it for period pain, for example. Lots of elderly people with crippling arthritis might be interested in obtaining and using it legally. This isn't quite such a stupid policy, aimed at the toots, as it may seem.)
Whatever Farage says, however, it will be a very great surprise if UKIP get more than one seat (a list seat in Monmouthshire being the likeliest path).
The outcome will therefore almost certainly be a Labour/Plaid coalition. The question might be whether Leanne Wood might try and either take the first ministership herself or find a reasonably moderate figure from one party or the other to head it. She wouldn't find that easy, but I wouldn't put it past her to try.
Edit - I know they're not. They seem to have even more of a death wish than, well, every other party at the moment.
Moving on...
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
But alas, it will never happen.
moving on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Dutch_general_election
But this is what happens when parties refuse to adapt and change, and instead react by barely concealing the fact they hold the bulk of their voters (and their views) in disdain.
EU = The First Order
Tories up, based on unpalatableness of alternative
Cameron down, possibly hinting at a a shift in the balance of the Tories
They are actually measuring two different things - and you can't draw any conclusions on salience of the EU as a result
https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/698932453877141508
That's 41 seats out of 150.