politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE moves into lead for 1st time in ICM’s EURef tracker
Comments
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Let me introduce you to a widely known secret. I have often pointed out the numerous mistakes of Osborne. Osborne is in the Conservative party. That said, Labour I agree is worse.EPG said:
Everything about the Tories is betterTCPoliticalBetting said:
No comparison. More bigots in Labour. "Among Labour-supporting parents 28 per cent would be “unhappy” and 10% “very upset” by such an occurrence"HYUFD said:
20% of Tories said they would not be happy if their child married a Labour supporter in the Times this morning, they can be just as partisan as LabourAndyJS said:
Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.Tissue_Price said:
Everything about Labour is worse and more evil
Who needs to even read the comments?
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I have been deeply disappointed by Kasich's performance on betfair. Rubio finished third and bece odds on favourite, Kasich's gets second and drifts out to mid 30s.
Unacceptable.0 -
del0
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How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.0 -
Just looking at the South Carolina GOP polls - aren't there any more up to date polls than the 23rd January?!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html0 -
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
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It really is too delicious for words. Quick, someone start a war to distract the plebs.hunchman said:
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan campaign finance pi$$ed up the wall no doubt. No wonder the establishment voices are in such trouble. Consider that Hilary Clinton earnt more in 3 speeches for Goldman Sachs than the lifetime net worth of Bernie Sanders. If that doesn't show who is more a person of the people, then I don't know what will. The US political establishment have every right to be worried, but it speaks volumes that they've taken until now to figure out just how angry the ordinary American is them, such is the depth of how out of touch they find themselves right now.AndyJS said:Channel 4 News: Jeb Bush spent $150 million in NH to secure around 30,000 votes.
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I imagine it will need a pretty big deposit for the sort of house he is after.Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
But does this not suggest a return to sanity in the housing market? He may have a good salary that could afford a good mortgage but that does not mean he nor anybody can whistle up a deposit.
Should we return to 110% mortgages handed put with green shield stamps?0 -
''This is becoming a referendum on the government, without the risk of replacing it, for voters.''
I don;t think its a referendum on the government, I think its a referendum on the establishment. Slightly different thing.0 -
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.0 -
As a long-standing 'Leave' advocate I now find myself wondering to what extent my previous anti-EU rhetoric is blinding me.
The EU of ten years ago was a definite leave. Now - who knows.0 -
@CarlyFiorina: Today, I am suspending my campaign. My full statement is here: https://t.co/8QElLZoc1W0
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It is interesting to see what the Private Insurance sector actually does - chiefly provide next day access to consultants and next day access to tests.nigel4england said:
I'm a private medical insurance broker, if you want a quote let me know!Mortimer said:
You might think that.Chris_A said:
The public certainly need educating that if they want a reasonable standard of modern health care then they will have to pay more. I think the fairest, and most efficient way is through general taxation, but whichever way it is done it will cost more.Mortimer said:
Probably quite a good idea to encourage the people who can afford it to take out private healthcare insurance then. Would you agree?Chris_A said:
You never think this was a betting site and we're all supposed to be numerate.MarqueeMark said:
So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?rcs1000 said:..........
Hunt has said that no junior doctor will be paid less so it quite obviously is not about money.
His stated aim is to have more junior doctors at weekends (why we'll have to speculate because he certainly needs more radiographers, pharmacists, nurses, consultants, pathologists, porters etc than he needs junior doctors). So if he has more juniors at weekends where will they have come from? The only place is by denuding the weekday rotas to make weekday care less safe.
This strike is about safety, not money.
Making it tax deductable would be a great Budget idea for Osbo.
As an example when I started my current job 20 years ago our annual drugs bill was £3.2m. Last year was £33m and this year we're looking at £36m.
Given my poor experience of the NHS, I totally disagree. Despite having huge amounts of money thrown at it, the NHS is intransigent and results in too many poor outcomes.
Insurance is a fair and efficient way of sharing the cost and improving outcomes.
PMI did attract tax relief for pensioners but that was stopped years ago. Conversely if you have PMI through your employer it is taxed as a benefit in kind, same as a company car. And the employer has to pay his 13.8%, this is despite the fact PMI helps alleviate the pressure on the NHS.
Which is why companies spend money on it for their staff. When I had what turned out to be frozen shoulder, the NHS gave me a 4 month wait to see a consultant. Bupa had me seeing a world class consultant the next day after work - with MRI and X-Ray then and there. He apologised for the fact that I had to come back next day to get the results...
I wonder if anyone can explain how that destroyed the NHS.0 -
He has a 100% safe job for 5 years. Surely it wouldn't be unreasonable to lend him the money and front-end-load the repayments. A deposit in all but name.flightpath01 said:
I imagine it will need a pretty big deposit for the sort of house he is after.Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
But does this not suggest a return to sanity in the housing market? He may have a good salary that could afford a good mortgage but that does not mean he nor anybody can whistle up a deposit.
Should we return to 110% mortgages handed put with green shield stamps?0 -
I'm agreeing with you more and morehunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.
This probably means we're both wrong.0 -
As an aside, that might just mean that Bernie Sanders is sh1t at saving. If your net worth is bugger all, you can exceed it in a shift at Burger Kinghunchman said:
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan campaign finance pi$$ed up the wall no doubt. No wonder the establishment voices are in such trouble. Consider that Hilary Clinton earnt more in 3 speeches for Goldman Sachs than the lifetime net worth of Bernie Sanders. If that doesn't show who is more a person of the people, then I don't know what will. The US political establishment have every right to be worried, but it speaks volumes that they've taken until now to figure out just how angry the ordinary American is them, such is the depth of how out of touch they find themselves right now.AndyJS said:Channel 4 News: Jeb Bush spent $150 million in NH to secure around 30,000 votes.
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Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.0 -
The EU of today is an exceptional Leave.Omnium said:As a long-standing 'Leave' advocate I now find myself wondering to what extent my previous anti-EU rhetoric is blinding me.
The EU of ten years ago was a definite leave. Now - who knows.0 -
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That leaves 7 GOP candidates.Scott_P said:@CarlyFiorina: Today, I am suspending my campaign. My full statement is here: https://t.co/8QElLZoc1W
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I agree with you that sovereign bonds are completely the wrong price.hunchman said:You're looking at the economy through the prism of the 2008 financial crisis. This isn't 2008 right now. Since then, you're right that there has been a reduction in corporate debt in the West as you state (although not in China and emerging markets), but what you ignore is the new elephant in the room of an oncoming sovereign debt crisis. No crisis throughout history repeats the previous one, its the classic generals mistake to fight the last war. All around the world, governments have splurged the red ink over the past 8 years, not least of which is the UK. Until May, we're getting a counter trend mover of lower stocks, weaker dollar, and a final rally in sovereign bonds. We're already seeing a cracking in terms of liquidity, debt in the energy and concerns about the banks, indeed the CEO of Maersk, the world's largest shipping company bluntly stated today that things are worse than 2008!
We've had a sovereign bond rally of over 34 years now, its simply time on the cycles for it to reverse with devastating consequences after May. The banks as Deusche Bank have realised are getting crushed by low interest rates, along with pension funds which simply can't earn the required returns they need to be solvent long term with interest rates on the floor. Janet Yellen has made interesting noises in her testimony about negative interest rates, in a world without capital flows and reserve currency status America would be free to pursue its own domestic agenda. With the rest of the world screaming at them about the pain from a higher US Dollar, will the Federal Reserve abandon its domestic agenda and set interest rates according to a global agenda? That question right now is behind the correction in the US Dollar, although it was overbought short term at the top. Once the sovereign debt crisis gets going in full swing, the banks holding the bag of sovereign bonds will be in a dire predicament again, but it will be for different reasons than was the case with subprime debt in 2008.
But the problem with your thesis is this: so long as central banks are happy to buy almost unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds, that what causes the change?
In Japan, the JCB owns government bonds equivalent to - what - 60% of GDP. 60%. In the UK it's 25% or so. It's hard to prick the bubble when someone has their finger stuck on the printing press button.0 -
I am still waiting for Priti to take this advice.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
Jim Gilmore's primary party... 10 people. Scenes.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/02/09/10-show-up-jim-gilmores-nh-primary-party/80095550/0 -
If the demand for more housing units in UK is going up by about 0.5 million a year and the supply is less than half that then the price of housing will eventually rise as people have to divert more of their income to it.hunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.0 -
Interesting to see Marina Wheeler (Boris' wife) laying into the EU today. I don't particularly care who Boris backs but if he has his eye on the #1 job backing Leave may be a smart move as it will differentiate him from the rest of the field (Osborne, May, etc).Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.0 -
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
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Is this not the funniest / saddest political tweet ever?
As the few supporters trickle out, Gilmore settles down with a plate of spaghetti at the bar. #Gilmentum
https://twitter.com/TrishaThadani/status/697242460339175424/photo/10 -
Time for the bears picnicrcs1000 said:
I'm agreeing with you more and morehunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.
This probably means we're both wrong. 0 -
@hunchman
One other thing. There is this meme that banks are getting killed by low interest rates. But the front books (i.e. the most recently issued loans) are almost all at better rates than the back book. In the case of the Spanish banks, its about 20bps better pricing for recently issued loans, in the case of France its 10-15bps. Why? Because Spain used to have 25 banks competing for your business and now has four. And France used to have 8 banks and now has about four as well.
Looking at all the Bloomberg 500 companies to have reported, the sector which has outperformed estimates by the most is... the banking sector.0 -
Interesting withdrawal speech, notably this but:dr_spyn said:
This campaign was always about citizenship—taking back our country from a political class that only serves the big, the powerful, the wealthy, and the well connected. Election after election, the same empty promises are made and the same poll-tested stump speeches are given, but nothing changes. I’ve said throughout this campaign that I will not sit down and be quiet. I’m not going to start now.
Is a Trump endorsement in the offing?0 -
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
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Someone stole the spaghetti!YossariansChild said:Is this not the funniest / saddest political tweet ever?
As the few supporters trickle out, Gilmore settles down with a plate of spaghetti at the bar. #Gilmentum
https://twitter.com/TrishaThadani/status/697242460339175424/photo/10 -
And things are going to carry on linearly like that? Demographics are changing to the downside, interest rates rising and a certain Mr Osborne taxing property more - look how the London high end market has performed since then........nothing but nothing goes in a linear trend forever, the cycle is turning just as with so many other things right now.TCPoliticalBetting said:
If the demand for more housing units in UK is going up by about 0.5 million a year and the supply is less than half that then the price of housing will eventually rise as people have to divert more of their income to it.hunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.0 -
There's an unbelievable amount of new property coming into the London market right now. And I think that a lot of the foreign buyers - from the Middle East, China, Russia, etc. - who bought off plan to get money out of their own country, will be liquidating assets soon.TCPoliticalBetting said:
If the demand for more housing units in UK is going up by about 0.5 million a year and the supply is less than half that then the price of housing will eventually rise as people have to divert more of their income to it.hunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.0 -
Seemingly not. Nevada is even worse.hunchman said:Just looking at the South Carolina GOP polls - aren't there any more up to date polls than the 23rd January?!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html0 -
It didn't. But it shows what can be done, and reminds everyone what the NHS doesn't do. Which is why it's cultist followers, hate the alternative of private medicine so much.Malmesbury said:
It is interesting to see what the Private Insurance sector actually does - chiefly provide next day access to consultants and next day access to tests.nigel4england said:
I'm a private medical insurance broker, if you want a quote let me know!Mortimer said:
You might think that.Chris_A said:Mortimer said:
Probably quite a good idea to encourage the people who can afford it to take out private healthcare insurance then. Would you agree?Chris_A said:
You never think this was a betting site and we're all supposed to be numerate.MarqueeMark said:
So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?rcs1000 said:..........
Hunt has said that no junior doctor will be paid less so it quite obviously is not about money.
His stated aim is to have more junior doctors at weekends (why we'll have to speculate because he certainly needs more radiographers, pharmacists, nurses, consultants, pathologists, porters etc than he needs junior doctors). So if he has more juniors at weekends where will they have come from? The only place is by denuding the weekday rotas to make weekday care less safe.
This strike is about safety, not money.
Making it tax deductable would be a great Budget idea for Osbo.
Given my poor experience of the NHS, I totally disagree. Despite having huge amounts of money thrown at it, the NHS is intransigent and results in too many poor outcomes.
Insurance is a fair and efficient way of sharing the cost and improving outcomes.
PMI did attract tax relief for pensioners but that was stopped years ago. Conversely if you have PMI through your employer it is taxed as a benefit in kind, same as a company car. And the employer has to pay his 13.8%, this is despite the fact PMI helps alleviate the pressure on the NHS.
Which is why companies spend money on it for their staff. When I had what turned out to be frozen shoulder, the NHS gave me a 4 month wait to see a consultant. Bupa had me seeing a world class consultant the next day after work - with MRI and X-Ray then and there. He apologised for the fact that I had to come back next day to get the results...
I wonder if anyone can explain how that destroyed the NHS.0 -
It did look like a proxy attack. But I do not expect Boris to go eurosceptic although in the words of the Godfather "It's the smart move; Tessio was always smarter.". Is Boris Tessio?MP_SE said:
Interesting to see Marina Wheeler (Boris' wife) laying into the EU today. I don't particularly care who Boris backs but if he has his eye on the #1 job backing Leave may be a smart move as it will differentiate him from the rest of the field (Osborne, May, etc).Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
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Shadow cabinet: If they can't find the guts to contest Corbyn's ideas then they won't be rising against mild things such as the future of the UK in Europe.SandyRentool said:
I am still waiting for Priti to take this advice.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.
Priti: I wasn't really thinking so far down the visibility chain - but, yes, why not.0 -
Or even Trump's running mate?david_herdson said:
Interesting withdrawal speech, notably this but:dr_spyn said:
This campaign was always about citizenship—taking back our country from a political class that only serves the big, the powerful, the wealthy, and the well connected. Election after election, the same empty promises are made and the same poll-tested stump speeches are given, but nothing changes. I’ve said throughout this campaign that I will not sit down and be quiet. I’m not going to start now.
Is a Trump endorsement in the offing?0 -
I think people have completely missed the demographic angle.hunchman said:
And things are going to carry on linearly like that? Demographics are changing to the downside, interest rates rising and a certain Mr Osborne taxing property more - look how the London high end market has performed since then........nothing but nothing goes in a linear trend forever, the cycle is turning just as with so many other things right now.TCPoliticalBetting said:
If the demand for more housing units in UK is going up by about 0.5 million a year and the supply is less than half that then the price of housing will eventually rise as people have to divert more of their income to it.hunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.0 -
There are plenty of other actors holding sovereign debt - the banks, not least among them the primary dealers who sell government debt and have the government by the short and curlies as a result, insurance companies, asset managers and some private individuals. Government debt throughout history has always been the worst investment long term, and yet investors never heed the lessons and keep heading back.....one wonders why when they get screwed over and over again.rcs1000 said:
I agree with you that sovereign bonds are completely the wrong price.hunchman said:You're looking at the economy through the prism of the 2008 financial crisis. This isn't 2008 right now. Since then, ...rent reasons than was the case with subprime debt in 2008.
But the problem with your thesis is this: so long as central banks are happy to buy almost unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds, that what causes the change?
In Japan, the JCB owns government bonds equivalent to - what - 60% of GDP. 60%. In the UK it's 25% or so. It's hard to prick the bubble when someone has their finger stuck on the printing press button.
I have confidence that the long term interest rate cycle will assert itself - the behaviour of central banks is not a given that they will keep buying and buying. Get an initial downward move and their own confidence in holding government debt will change. Ok, I grant you that government and quasi government agencies (lets leave the question of who owns the Bank of England alone!) are the last ones to get the message, but get the message they will.......eventually.0 -
Ben Carson is auditioning for it:SandyRentool said:
Or even Trump's running mate?david_herdson said:
Interesting withdrawal speech, notably this but:dr_spyn said:
This campaign was always about citizenship—taking back our country from a political class that only serves the big, the powerful, the wealthy, and the well connected. Election after election, the same empty promises are made and the same poll-tested stump speeches are given, but nothing changes. I’ve said throughout this campaign that I will not sit down and be quiet. I’m not going to start now.
Is a Trump endorsement in the offing?
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/ben-carson-im-open-to-being-donald-trumps-vice-president/
So that's Carson, Huckabee and Scarborough petitioning for the role.0 -
I saw the Newsnight report and wondered why the forecast new builds for London were not in the >100,000 a year level. That is surely what would be required to meet demand in London now and over the next 5 years?rcs1000 said:
There's an unbelievable amount of new property coming into the London market right now. And I think that a lot of the foreign buyers - from the Middle East, China, Russia, etc. - who bought off plan to get money out of their own country, will be liquidating assets soon.TCPoliticalBetting said:
If the demand for more housing units in UK is going up by about 0.5 million a year and the supply is less than half that then the price of housing will eventually rise as people have to divert more of their income to it.hunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.
0 -
Ah. I see you're enjoying a typical weeknight Malky. Kicking back and relaxing after a hard day in the factory, lubricating the throat with a pint or three of Buckfast Tonic. Followed by a leisurely drive home.malcolmg said:
Read the numbers bellend, they are well ahead of the other UK NHS's statisticswatford30 said:
They'd probably be doing many Scots a favour if they shut down the Death Star Super Hospital.Scott_P said:An SNP MSP has suggested closing down hospitals and redistributing their resources into preventative community care.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.iupjAqo8E
Might push average life expectancy into the low 60's.0 -
That's not a plausible line to take though. 'If we lose, I will quit, and whoever from my own party replaces me will be too crap to handle life outside the EU, and the country will collapse.'TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.0 -
Absolutely, and I will never forget that in 6 years of studying economics at A level, undergraduate and masters level, how many times was demographics mentioned as an economic driver? ZERO, NADA, ZILCH, NEVER!!!!! That alone gives you some idea just how wretchedly a taught subject it is!rcs1000 said:
I think people have completely missed the demographic angle.hunchman said:
And things are going to carry on linearly like that? Demographics are changing to the downside, interest rates rising and a certain Mr Osborne taxing property more - look how the London high end market has performed since then........nothing but nothing goes in a linear trend forever, the cycle is turning just as with so many other things right now.TCPoliticalBetting said:
If the demand for more housing units in UK is going up by about 0.5 million a year and the supply is less than half that then the price of housing will eventually rise as people have to divert more of their income to it.hunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.0 -
Having made his quite chilling warning to Theresa May over a month ago, D'Ancona today has a message for Boris:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-dancona-putting-boris-johnson-onto-the-world-stage-will-suit-george-osborne-just-fine-a3177221.html
The strategy seems to me to be to hug all of Osborne's rivals very close in the three great offices of state (especially May as Home Sec, and Boris as Foreign Secretary) and thus allow Osborne to sit as first amongst equals of all the Tory big beast rivals to succeed Cameron.
Meanwhile, with Boris well out of his way, Osborne can focus on building his voting bloc and parliamentary support at Westminster.
I suspect Boris can smell this rat, which might explain his prevarication.0 -
Boris is a pain in the ass, always playing to the galleryTCPoliticalBetting said:
It did look like a proxy attack. But I do not expect Boris to go eurosceptic although in the words of the Godfather "It's the smart move; Tessio was always smarter.". Is Boris Tessio?MP_SE said:
Interesting to see Marina Wheeler (Boris' wife) laying into the EU today. I don't particularly care who Boris backs but if he has his eye on the #1 job backing Leave may be a smart move as it will differentiate him from the rest of the field (Osborne, May, etc).Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.0 -
He could chose a lot worse. Many people always said her campaign was about running for VP. She'd add executive polish to the ticket and be an effective attack dog, especially if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.SandyRentool said:
Or even Trump's running mate?david_herdson said:
Interesting withdrawal speech, notably this but:dr_spyn said:
This campaign was always about citizenship—taking back our country from a political class that only serves the big, the powerful, the wealthy, and the well connected. Election after election, the same empty promises are made and the same poll-tested stump speeches are given, but nothing changes. I’ve said throughout this campaign that I will not sit down and be quiet. I’m not going to start now.
Is a Trump endorsement in the offing?0 -
Quite. My opinion on the EU - and in particular our membership of if - has steadily gone downhill over the years, until about 2 years ago I would probably have voted to Remain.Casino_Royale said:
The EU of today is an exceptional Leave.Omnium said:As a long-standing 'Leave' advocate I now find myself wondering to what extent my previous anti-EU rhetoric is blinding me.
The EU of ten years ago was a definite leave. Now - who knows.
Now it's a clear Leave. By the end of this summer, that will be obvious to the majority of the British.0 -
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.0 -
GOWNBPMCasino_Royale said:Having made his quite chilling warning to Theresa May over a month ago, D'Ancona today has a message for Boris:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-dancona-putting-boris-johnson-onto-the-world-stage-will-suit-george-osborne-just-fine-a3177221.html
The strategy seems to me to be to hug all of Osborne's rivals very close in the three great offices of state (especially May as Home Sec, and Boris as Foreign Secretary) and thus allow Osborne to sit as first amongst equals of all the Tory big beast rivals to succeed Cameron.
Meanwhile, with Boris well out of his way, Osborne can focus on building his voting bloc and parliamentary support at Westminster.
I suspect Boris can smell this rat, which might explain his prevarication.
hes a twat0 -
The only thing we have from S.Carolina after Iowa and N.H, is Google Trends.david_herdson said:
Seemingly not. Nevada is even worse.hunchman said:Just looking at the South Carolina GOP polls - aren't there any more up to date polls than the 23rd January?!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
Currently interest in S.C is greatest for Trump, who's second? Not Cruz, not Rubio, but Kasich at half Trump's levels.
Trump is though the only one that has high levels throughout the state, Kasich is concentrated only on the coast, and Cruz and Rubio have very little support in the middle part of the state.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=/m/0cqt90, /m/07j6ty, /m/0dpr5f, /m/02zzm_&geo=US-SC&date=now 1-d&cmpt=q&tz=Etc/GMT-20 -
That may be so. Cameron though has already told us that he's leaving. He's an interim manager along the way. He's not so bad at that.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
If we stay in the EU and Cameron emerges victorious in a thumping way then clearly the party will play on that. Cameron will play out his full term. He'll wax lyrical about whoever is elected to succeed him, and when it seems electorally wise - he'll bow out.
If though we leave then Cameron will push forwards his departure, the front-runner will be whoever fronted leave (assuming it was a Tory), and we'll go from there.
0 -
NH Primary 100% reporting Full result including write-ins.
The highlight: Vermin Supreme got more votes than Gilmore..
President - GOP Primary
February 10, 2016 - 03:05PM ET
New Hampshire - 300 of 300 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Trump, Donald GOP 100,406 35%
Kasich, John GOP 44,909 16%
Cruz, Ted GOP 33,189 12%
Bush, Jeb GOP 31,310 11%
Rubio, Marco GOP 30,032 11%
Christie, Chris GOP 21,069 7%
Fiorina, Carly GOP 11,706 4%
Carson, Ben GOP 6,509 2%
Paul, Rand GOP 1,900 1%
Total Write-ins GOP 1,775 1%
Huckabee, Mike GOP 215 0%
Martin, Andy GOP 169 0%
Santorum, Rick GOP 155 0%
Gilmore, Jim GOP 133 0%
Witz, Richard GOP 105 0%
Pataki, George GOP 80 0%
Cook, Tim GOP 77 0%
Graham, Lindsey GOP 70 0%
Jindal, Bobby GOP 64 0%
Cullison, Brooks GOP 54 0%
Lynch, Frank GOP 47 0%
Robinson, Joe GOP 44 0%
Comley, Stephen GOP 31 0%
Dyas, Daniel GOP 14 0%
Prag, Chomi GOP 14 0%
McCarthy, Stephen GOP 12 0%
Iwachiw, Walter GOP 9 0%
Huey, Kevin GOP 7 0%
Drozd, Matt GOP 5 0%
Mann, Robert GOP 5 0%
Messina, Peter GOP 5 0%
President - Dem Primary
February 10, 2016 - 03:05PM ET
New Hampshire - 300 of 300 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Sanders, Bernie Dem 151,584 60%
Clinton, Hillary Dem 95,252 38%
Total Write-ins Dem 2,174 1%
O'Malley, Martin Dem 643 0%
Supreme, Vermin Dem 260 0%
Thistle, David Dem 226 0%
Schwass, Graham Dem 125 0%
Burke, Steve Dem 106 0%
De La Fuente, Rocky Dem 95 0%
Wolfe, John Dem 54 0%
Adams, Jon Dem 52 0%
Kelso, Lloyd Dem 47 0%
Judd, Keith Dem 43 0%
Elbot, Eric Dem 34 0%
Locke, Star Dem 33 0%
French, Bill Dem 27 0%
Greenstein, Mark Stewart Dem 27 0%
Valentine, James Dem 25 0%
O'Donnell, Edward Dem 22 0%
Lovitt, Robert Dem 21 0%
Steinberg, Michael Dem 21 0%
Hewes, Henry Dem 18 0%
McGaughey, Bill Dem 17 0%
Sonnino, Edward Dem 17 0%
Lipscomb, Steven Dem 16 0%
Sloan, Sam Dem 15 0%
Hutton, Brock Dem 14 0%
Moroz, Raymond Dem 8 0%
Weil, Richard Dem 7 0%
0 -
I agree things will not carry on linearly. But you cannot keep bucking market trends (Mrs T). My working expectation is for a flat London buying market over the next 18 months because of Osborne's various tax changes and the foreign problems. However the removal of btl's will lead to rent increases although that may not be until 2017/18.hunchman said:
And things are going to carry on linearly like that? Demographics are changing to the downside, interest rates rising and a certain Mr Osborne taxing property more - look how the London high end market has performed since then........nothing but nothing goes in a linear trend forever, the cycle is turning just as with so many other things right now.TCPoliticalBetting said:
If the demand for more housing units in UK is going up by about 0.5 million a year and the supply is less than half that then the price of housing will eventually rise as people have to divert more of their income to it.hunchman said:
The 78 year global property cycle will do the work for Mr Corbyn!TCPoliticalBetting said:
How is Corbyn going to reduce house prices by 30% or more? I guess you think an economic depression on the scale of Greece is a small price to pay?Speedy said:
Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.HYUFD said:Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-the-peak-is-here/
We had the 2007 global peak, the recovery into last year which was the peak in the high end of the property market worldwide. Now we've got 17 years of downtrend to churn through when valued in real terms - higher interest rates owing to the sovereign debt crisis and demographics will be the 2 big drivers in my opinion.
0 -
Under Scottish drink driving laws, boozing is a practice done on one's sofa at home.watford30 said:
Ah. I see you're enjoying a typical weeknight Malky. Kicking back and relaxing after a hard day in the factory, lubricating the throat with a pint or three of Buckfast Tonic. Followed by a leisurely drive home.malcolmg said:
Read the numbers bellend, they are well ahead of the other UK NHS's statisticswatford30 said:
They'd probably be doing many Scots a favour if they shut down the Death Star Super Hospital.Scott_P said:An SNP MSP has suggested closing down hospitals and redistributing their resources into preventative community care.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.iupjAqo8E
Might push average life expectancy into the low 60's.
0 -
I was expecting to see a better showing from Matt Santos for the Dems.YossariansChild said:NH Primary 100% reporting Full result including write-ins.
The highlight: Vermin Supreme got more votes than Gilmore..
President - GOP Primary
February 10, 2016 - 03:05PM ET
New Hampshire - 300 of 300 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Trump, Donald GOP 100,406 35%
Kasich, John GOP 44,909 16%
Cruz, Ted GOP 33,189 12%
Bush, Jeb GOP 31,310 11%
Rubio, Marco GOP 30,032 11%
Christie, Chris GOP 21,069 7%
Fiorina, Carly GOP 11,706 4%
Carson, Ben GOP 6,509 2%
Paul, Rand GOP 1,900 1%
Total Write-ins GOP 1,775 1%
Huckabee, Mike GOP 215 0%
Martin, Andy GOP 169 0%
Santorum, Rick GOP 155 0%
Gilmore, Jim GOP 133 0%
Witz, Richard GOP 105 0%
Pataki, George GOP 80 0%
Cook, Tim GOP 77 0%
Graham, Lindsey GOP 70 0%
Jindal, Bobby GOP 64 0%
Cullison, Brooks GOP 54 0%
Lynch, Frank GOP 47 0%
Robinson, Joe GOP 44 0%
Comley, Stephen GOP 31 0%
Dyas, Daniel GOP 14 0%
Prag, Chomi GOP 14 0%
McCarthy, Stephen GOP 12 0%
Iwachiw, Walter GOP 9 0%
Huey, Kevin GOP 7 0%
Drozd, Matt GOP 5 0%
Mann, Robert GOP 5 0%
Messina, Peter GOP 5 0%
President - Dem Primary
February 10, 2016 - 03:05PM ET
New Hampshire - 300 of 300 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Sanders, Bernie Dem 151,584 60%
Clinton, Hillary Dem 95,252 38%
Total Write-ins Dem 2,174 1%
O'Malley, Martin Dem 643 0%
Supreme, Vermin Dem 260 0%
Thistle, David Dem 226 0%
Schwass, Graham Dem 125 0%
Burke, Steve Dem 106 0%
De La Fuente, Rocky Dem 95 0%
Wolfe, John Dem 54 0%
Adams, Jon Dem 52 0%
Kelso, Lloyd Dem 47 0%
Judd, Keith Dem 43 0%
Elbot, Eric Dem 34 0%
Locke, Star Dem 33 0%
French, Bill Dem 27 0%
Greenstein, Mark Stewart Dem 27 0%
Valentine, James Dem 25 0%
O'Donnell, Edward Dem 22 0%
Lovitt, Robert Dem 21 0%
Steinberg, Michael Dem 21 0%
Hewes, Henry Dem 18 0%
McGaughey, Bill Dem 17 0%
Sonnino, Edward Dem 17 0%
Lipscomb, Steven Dem 16 0%
Sloan, Sam Dem 15 0%
Hutton, Brock Dem 14 0%
Moroz, Raymond Dem 8 0%
Weil, Richard Dem 7 0%0 -
It was a terrible deal, but even as someone who is pro-European but vehemently anti-EU, I really don't think who wins or loses the referendum will matter one jot in 4 years time, and here is why:SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-coming-european-revoluition/
I have enough faith in this 86 year cycle that events will render whatever may or may not happen with the referendum null and void by the time we get to 2020. So the whole referendum is largely pyrrhic now - I think the short term would be somewhat better if we voted leave but it really is small beer right now given what we're faced with over the next 4 years or so.0 -
I have not said or implied 'If we lose, I will quit, and whoever from my own party replaces me will be too crap to handle life outside the EU, and the country will collapse.'Luckyguy1983 said:
That's not a plausible line to take though. 'If we lose, I will quit, and whoever from my own party replaces me will be too crap to handle life outside the EU, and the country will collapse.'TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
Cameron has said if he loses then he does not intend going. i have said that he will be forced out if he loses. After that it is a golden future of course.
0 -
Same story in Nevada by the way.Speedy said:
The only thing we have from S.Carolina after Iowa and N.H, is Google Trends.david_herdson said:
Seemingly not. Nevada is even worse.hunchman said:Just looking at the South Carolina GOP polls - aren't there any more up to date polls than the 23rd January?!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
Currently interest in S.C is greatest for Trump, who's second? Not Cruz, not Rubio, but Kasich at half Trump's levels.
Trump is though the only one that has high levels throughout the state, Kasich is concentrated only on the coast, and Cruz and Rubio have very little support in the middle part of the state.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=/m/0cqt90, /m/07j6ty, /m/0dpr5f, /m/02zzm_&geo=US-SC&date=now 1-d&cmpt=q&tz=Etc/GMT-2
In fact digging deeper, could be a bad omen for Hilary in all that data. We await opinion polls of course.0 -
JLR is to spend about £500 million on a 30-acre site in Coventry, less than 12 months after a similar investment in Castle Bromwich . It has spent about 1.5 billion in the last few years and is going to spend at least the same over the next few years. In fact the turnround at JLR is amazing and it might well produce nearly 800,000 cars by the end of the decade. Its already the country's largest car producer.Alanbrooke said:
Where's the capital investment ?Mortimer said:
I must admit to being pretty rusty on the economics of this, but isn't a BOP deficit less significant in nations that are also very successful at importing capital investment?Alanbrooke said:
So Germany is cheaper ? LolMortimer said:
I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?HurstLlama said:"Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html
Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.
Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
The fact remains services aren't paying the bills for the manufactures we import, most of which are mid tech items from high to medium cost countries. Cars from Germany, white goods from Italy etc.
For ages Osborne has been wittering on about exports Quite how we are going to export our way out of our problems when the target export markets are in recession or slowdown only the Osbornites can explain. Most of our BOP deficit is a structural ( we closed the industry ) rather than a competitive problem, imo the easiset way to close the BOP problem is to make more of what we consume.
We are selling houses in London to rich foreigners or sound businesses to multinats who close them and send the jobs overseas along with our tax base.
Foreign Direct Investment in the UK is around £30bn a year, the largest in Europe. Our stock of overseas investment is over £1trillion.
The returns from our own overseas investments have been falling I think because the world economy has been stuttering.0 -
Cameron is motivated by party political concerns. The referendum/renegotiation was intended only a device to help get him elected in 2015. It worked. What is happening now is irrelevant.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.0 -
I agree - I absolutely can't stand the man and think he'd be a disastrous leader..Alanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMCasino_Royale said:Having made his quite chilling warning to Theresa May over a month ago, D'Ancona today has a message for Boris:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-dancona-putting-boris-johnson-onto-the-world-stage-will-suit-george-osborne-just-fine-a3177221.html
The strategy seems to me to be to hug all of Osborne's rivals very close in the three great offices of state (especially May as Home Sec, and Boris as Foreign Secretary) and thus allow Osborne to sit as first amongst equals of all the Tory big beast rivals to succeed Cameron.
Meanwhile, with Boris well out of his way, Osborne can focus on building his voting bloc and parliamentary support at Westminster.
I suspect Boris can smell this rat, which might explain his prevarication.
hes a twat0 -
Cameron has re-emerged as the bag-carrier seen in the background, whilst Chancellor Lamont copped it for the loony ERM policy instituted by former Chancellor Major - who in his wisdom as PM spent most of the summer of 1992 alternately threatening and mocking those who might attack the £. George Soros was happily mocked into making £x Billions. Cameron, heir-to-Blair, very much committed to matching Labour's spending plans, pre-the-Northern Rock-to-RBS blow up. Now, Cameron no good ...0
-
The best thing for a united Tory party is for him to back Leave...Jonathan said:
Cameron is motivated by party political concerns. The referendum/renegotiation was intended only a device to help get him elected in 2015. It worked. What is happening now is irrelevant.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.0 -
GO won't make it to the promised land, once the economy turns south after May his legacy will be tarnished.....if he ever had one.And you don't want to be the front runner right now as Tory party history shows all too well.Casino_Royale said:
I agree - I absolutely can't stand the man and think he'd be a disastrous leader..Alanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMCasino_Royale said:Having made his quite chilling warning to Theresa May over a month ago, D'Ancona today has a message for Boris:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-dancona-putting-boris-johnson-onto-the-world-stage-will-suit-george-osborne-just-fine-a3177221.html
The strategy seems to me to be to hug all of Osborne's rivals very close in the three great offices of state (especially May as Home Sec, and Boris as Foreign Secretary) and thus allow Osborne to sit as first amongst equals of all the Tory big beast rivals to succeed Cameron.
Meanwhile, with Boris well out of his way, Osborne can focus on building his voting bloc and parliamentary support at Westminster.
I suspect Boris can smell this rat, which might explain his prevarication.
hes a twat0 -
Perhaps you might advise on the out turns of the previous 86 year cycles or is this the first of many cycles? Your faith in a convicted conman is I suppose the mark of a conman.hunchman said:
It was a terrible deal, but even as someone who is pro-European but vehemently anti-EU, I really don't think who wins or loses the referendum will matter one jot in 4 years time, and here is why:SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-coming-european-revoluition/
I have enough faith in this 86 year cycle that events will render whatever may or may not happen with the referendum null and void by the time we get to 2020. So the whole referendum is largely pyrrhic now - I think the short term would be somewhat better if we voted leave but it really is small beer right now given what we're faced with over the next 4 years or so.0 -
The situation in S.Carolina as campaigning starts there with 10 days and a debate to go:
Sean Sullivan @WaPoSean 3h3 hours ago
Rubio opens up on Bush, Trump, Christie and debating after poor New Hampshire showing http://wapo.st/1O35xLA?tid=ss_tw …
Ed O'Keefe @edatpost 2h2 hours ago
Bush, knocking Rubio in South Carolina: "The coronation after a third-place finish — looks like they canceled it." http://wpo.st/3WVA1
Meanwhile Cruz boasts that he has 10000 volunteers (he had 12 thousand in Iowa).
And 2 attack ads by Cruz and Trump against each other, the Cruz ad is unintelligible the Trump ad too dark:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOGmiXZN_W8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV3zycTRYwI0 -
Agree,I won't trust him again.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.0 -
I agree but its odd other prominents haven't backed it. If either Hammond or May led Leave it would win, and they would be quids in for next leader.SeanT said:
Cameron is the son-of-a-stockbroker. Upper middle class Trade. The absolute essence of Tory europhilia. The idea of his leading the UK out of Europe is laughable, it betrays everything he believes. Yet he is on the cusp of achieving it.NorfolkTilIDie said:
The best thing for a united Tory party is for him to back Leave...Jonathan said:
Cameron is motivated by party political concerns. The referendum/renegotiation was intended only a device to help get him elected in 2015. It worked. What is happening now is irrelevant.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
It's like a Corbyn-led Labour government unilaterally invading Palestine, to assist Israel.0 -
You were predicting the end of the world last Autumn. How did that turn out?hunchman said:
It was a terrible deal, but even as someone who is pro-European but vehemently anti-EU, I really don't think who wins or loses the referendum will matter one jot in 4 years time, and here is why:SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-coming-european-revoluition/
I have enough faith in this 86 year cycle that events will render whatever may or may not happen with the referendum null and void by the time we get to 2020. So the whole referendum is largely pyrrhic now - I think the short term would be somewhat better if we voted leave but it really is small beer right now given what we're faced with over the next 4 years or so.0 -
I have lost track of the number of visits to hospital for consultations and treatments my wife and I have taken my sister and mother in law to over the last 2 or 3 years. Among the many issues my mother in law has had is a lung cancer which has been successfully treated. She has many other issues but the fact that she is nearly 90 has not stopped her receiving pretty prompt treatment.watford30 said:
It didn't. But it shows what can be done, and reminds everyone what the NHS doesn't do. Which is why it's cultist followers, hate the alternative of private medicine so much.Malmesbury said:
It is interesting to see what the Private Insurance sector actually does - chiefly provide next day access to consultants and next day access to tests.nigel4england said:
I'm a private medical insurance broker, if you want a quote let me know!Mortimer said:
You might think that.Chris_A said:Mortimer said:
Probably quite a good idea to encourage the people who can afford it to take out private healthcare insurance then. Would you agree?Chris_A said:
....MarqueeMark said:
So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?rcs1000 said:..........
Making it tax deductable would be a great Budget idea for Osbo.
Given my poor experience of the NHS, I totally disagree. Despite having huge amounts of money thrown at it, the NHS is intransigent and results in too many poor outcomes.
Insurance is a fair and efficient way of sharing the cost and improving outcomes.
PMI did attract tax relief for pensioners but that was stopped years ago. Conversely if you have PMI through your employer it is taxed as a benefit in kind, same as a company car. And the employer has to pay his 13.8%, this is despite the fact PMI helps alleviate the pressure on the NHS.
Which is why companies spend money on it for their staff. When I had what turned out to be frozen shoulder, the NHS gave me a 4 month wait to see a consultant. Bupa had me seeing a world class consultant the next day after work - with MRI and X-Ray then and there. He apologised for the fact that I had to come back next day to get the results...
I wonder if anyone can explain how that destroyed the NHS.
Like other countries the NHS should make more use of private suppliers, Labour do it when in power but are against it when in opposition.0 -
If as people say, Cameron is someone who can always pull off a brilliant essay, at the 11th hour, then I suppose he thought he could sell this deal to the public, even though it's rotten. Maybe he thought everyone on the centre-right was so afraid of letting in Corbyn that they'd support him, despite reservations, for fear of a split.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
But, Corbyn is so unpopular and inept, that he can't win even if the Right does split.0 -
Tough one for Boris and his ego:
(1) Go with Cameron/Osborne and declare for Remain. Become Foreign Secretary. Huge profile on world stage and fantastic for brand Boris, but well away from Westminster village. He'll have some cabinet experience but no USP, other than being Boris. Probably unable to build much support for a bid for future Tory leader and his ultimate goal of becoming PM as Osborne will be sewing it up in his absence.
(2) Declare for Leave and instantly become a hero of the Mail and the Tory BOO'ers. Chance to be Churchillian domestically and, perhaps, reach across the political divide. But inherits a shambles of a campaign, with multiple factions, up against Cameron, Project Fear and all the inertia of the status quo. If Leave wins, he's almost a certainty to become PM if Cameron resigns; if he loses, no cabinet job and he's tarnished as a loser. Probably not an issue if it's a close honorable defeat he probably becomes the Leave candidate of choice in 2019/20, particularly if the EU turns south, albeit without cabinet experience. But if it's a clear heavy defeat he's finished.
No wonder he's equivocating.0 -
In that picture Cruz looks like Senator Joseph McCarthy.Speedy said:The situation in S.Carolina as campaigning starts there with 10 days and a debate to go:
Sean Sullivan @WaPoSean 3h3 hours ago
Rubio opens up on Bush, Trump, Christie and debating after poor New Hampshire showing http://wapo.st/1O35xLA?tid=ss_tw …
Ed O'Keefe @edatpost 2h2 hours ago
Bush, knocking Rubio in South Carolina: "The coronation after a third-place finish — looks like they canceled it." http://wpo.st/3WVA1
Meanwhile Cruz boasts that he has 10000 volunteers (he had 12 thousand in Iowa).
And 2 attack ads by Cruz and Trump against each other, the Cruz ad is unintelligible the Trump ad too dark:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOGmiXZN_W8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV3zycTRYwI0 -
He still has plenty of time to pull something out of the bag, I wouldn't get too carried away with the latest momentum shift.Sean_F said:
If as people say, Cameron is someone who can always pull off a brilliant essay, at the 11th hour, then I suppose he thought he could sell this deal to the public, even though it's rotten. Maybe he thought everyone on the centre-right was so afraid of letting in Corbyn that they'd support him, despite reservations, for fear of a split.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
But, Corbyn is so unpopular and inept, that he can't win even if the Right does split.
0 -
watford30 said:hunchman said:SeanT said:Sean_F said:foxinsoxuk said:TCPoliticalBetting said:
No I was not - I was predicting that from the start of October would be when things would start turning down. Well on the 1st October, Russia started bombing in Syria raising geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Tensions have been rising in Europe over the refugee crisis, and global economic worries have been rising as well......so I think my prediction dated from around May 2014 has worked out very well so far thank you.Omnium said:
You were predicting the end of the world last Autumn. How did that turn out?TCPoliticalBetting said:
It.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
The one piece of the jigsaw that hasn't started by now like I thought it would has been the sovereign debt crisis, but I think you will see that start from around May onwards, and that US stocks will do well from May onwards once they hit the bottom around Dow 13,000....although its looking to me like we'll get an interim low early next week....although there could be some fireworks on the markets to close this week.0 -
You were predicting the end of the world last Autumn. How did that turn out?
No I was not - I was predicting that from the start of October would be when things would start turning down. Well on the 1st October, Russia started bombing in Syria raising geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Tensions have been rising in Europe over the refugee crisis, and global economic worries have been rising as well......so I think my prediction dated from around May 2014 has worked out very well so far thank you.
The one piece of the jigsaw that hasn't started by now like I thought it would has been the sovereign debt crisis, but I think you will see that start from around May onwards, and that US stocks will do well from May onwards once they hit the bottom around Dow 13,000....although its looking to me like we'll get an interim low early next week....although there could be some fireworks on the markets to close this week.0 -
That's the problem: Corbyn is just a little bit too shit.Sean_F said:
If as people say, Cameron is someone who can always pull off a brilliant essay, at the 11th hour, then I suppose he thought he could sell this deal to the public, even though it's rotten. Maybe he thought everyone on the centre-right was so afraid of letting in Corbyn that they'd support him, despite reservations, for fear of a split.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
But, Corbyn is so unpopular and inept, that he can't win even if the Right does split.0 -
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).0 -
@flightpath01
In most cases the NHS treats you promptly once you are diagnosed with something life threatening. However I despair at the wait for things like knee and hip replacement. Not only can people be left hanging on for months in great pain and with impaired mobility, if it's stopping you from working, you need it done tomorrow.0 -
3) say wibble and then come out for the winning sideCasino_Royale said:Tough one for Boris and his ego:
(1) Go with Cameron/Osborne and declare for Remain. Become Foreign Secretary. Huge profile on world stage and fantastic for brand Boris, but well away from Westminster village. He'll have some cabinet experience but no USP, other than being Boris. Probably unable to build much support for a bid for future Tory leader and his ultimate goal of becoming PM as Osborne will be sewing it up in his absence.
(2) Declare for Leave and instantly become a hero of the Mail and the Tory BOO'ers. Chance to be Churchillian domestically and, perhaps, reach across the political divide. But inherits a shambles of a campaign, with multiple factions, up against Cameron, Project Fear and all the inertia of the status quo. If Leave wins, he's almost a certainty to become PM if Cameron resigns; if he loses, no cabinet job and he's tarnished as a loser. Probably not an issue if it's a close honorable defeat he probably becomes the Leave candidate of choice in 2019/20, particularly if the EU turns south, albeit without cabinet experience. But if it's a clear heavy defeat he's finished.
No wonder he's equivocating.
hes a spin junkie0 -
You only win by gambling, even if it's a calculated gamble.Casino_Royale said:Tough one for Boris and his ego:
(1) Go with Cameron/Osborne and declare for Remain. Become Foreign Secretary. Huge profile on world stage and fantastic for brand Boris, but well away from Westminster village. He'll have some cabinet experience but no USP, other than being Boris. Probably unable to build much support for a bid for future Tory leader and his ultimate goal of becoming PM as Osborne will be sewing it up in his absence.
(2) Declare for Leave and instantly become a hero of the Mail and the Tory BOO'ers. Chance to be Churchillian domestically and, perhaps, reach across the political divide. But inherits a shambles of a campaign, with multiple factions, up against Cameron, Project Fear and all the inertia of the status quo. If Leave wins, he's almost a certainty to become PM if Cameron resigns; if he loses, no cabinet job and he's tarnished as a loser. Probably not an issue if it's a close honorable defeat he probably becomes the Leave candidate of choice in 2019/20, particularly if the EU turns south, albeit without cabinet experience. But if it's a clear heavy defeat he's finished.
No wonder he's equivocating.
Caesar crossed the Rubicon. He didn't dither.0 -
Few things in politics are more certain than the Eurosceptics calling for the ref if they lose.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).0 -
I think that the flaw in that reasoning is that his position on the EU is not far from Corbyn, but is far from his own europhobes.Sean_F said:
If as people say, Cameron is someone who can always pull off a brilliant essay, at the 11th hour, then I suppose he thought he could sell this deal to the public, even though it's rotten. Maybe he thought everyone on the centre-right was so afraid of letting in Corbyn that they'd support him, despite reservations, for fear of a split.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
But, Corbyn is so unpopular and inept, that he can't win even if the Right does split.0 -
You were predicting the end of the world last Autumn. How did that turn out?hunchman said:
No I was not - I was predicting that from the start of October would be when things would start turning down. Well on the 1st October, Russia started bombing in Syria raising geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Tensions have been rising in Europe over the refugee crisis, and global economic worries have been rising as well......so I think my prediction dated from around May 2014 has worked out very well so far thank you.
...snip...
What does Russian military activity have to do with any 'cycles', or predictions? Looks more like a simple coincidence.
0 -
NonsenseJonathan said:
Few things in politics are more certain than the Eurosceptics calling for the ref if they lose.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).
labour fucking up the economy is the certainty of certainties0 -
Perhaps you might advise on the out turns of the previous 86 year cycles or is this the first of many cycles? Your faith in a convicted conman is I suppose the mark of a conman.
I think the outcomes of the 1840's and the 1930's on this 86 year cycle are well known to those who know their history, don't you?
And you would be happy to be tried under Judge Owen?! Pull the other one. The US government got a hissy fit because he wouldn't turn over his models that they wanted. If his models weren't any good, then why would they want them?! From a man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash to the day, the high in Japanese equities at the end of 1989, the roadmap presented at his 1999 conference including the dot com bubble, 2008 and the European crisis in 2011/2012, I have more faith in his forecasting than I would have in you! And because he was so good, he made a lot of powerful enemies including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the like. I see that 5 out of 6 Goldman forecasts at the start of this year and their trades thereupon have already been reversed out.0 -
He doesn't care. The point was to win in 2015. That's it.SeanT said:
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.0 -
Or he could have ended up like a Churchillian figure if he went on the Out side and won,oh well.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).0 -
He thinks hes smarter than the electorateSeanT said:
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.0 -
For a party that has a leadership contest coming up in just three years time, the Conservative Party seems to be surprisingly devoid of people willing to be leaders.Sean_F said:
You only win by gambling, even if it's a calculated gamble.Casino_Royale said:Tough one for Boris and his ego:
(1) Go with Cameron/Osborne and declare for Remain. Become Foreign Secretary. Huge profile on world stage and fantastic for brand Boris, but well away from Westminster village. He'll have some cabinet experience but no USP, other than being Boris. Probably unable to build much support for a bid for future Tory leader and his ultimate goal of becoming PM as Osborne will be sewing it up in his absence.
(2) Declare for Leave and instantly become a hero of the Mail and the Tory BOO'ers. Chance to be Churchillian domestically and, perhaps, reach across the political divide. But inherits a shambles of a campaign, with multiple factions, up against Cameron, Project Fear and all the inertia of the status quo. If Leave wins, he's almost a certainty to become PM if Cameron resigns; if he loses, no cabinet job and he's tarnished as a loser. Probably not an issue if it's a close honorable defeat he probably becomes the Leave candidate of choice in 2019/20, particularly if the EU turns south, albeit without cabinet experience. But if it's a clear heavy defeat he's finished.
No wonder he's equivocating.
Caesar crossed the Rubicon. He didn't dither.0 -
The EU view is that they've pulled out all the stops to help Cameron.SeanT said:
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.0 -
No I was not - I was predicting that from the start of October would be when things would start turning down. Well on the 1st October, Russia started bombing in Syria raising geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Tensions have been rising in Europe over the refugee crisis, and global economic worries have been rising as well......so I think my prediction dated from around May 2014 has worked out very well so far thank you.watford30 said:
You were predicting the end of the world last Autumn. How did that turn out?hunchman said:
...snip...
What does Russian military activity have to do with any 'cycles', or predictions? Looks more like a simple coincidence.
You can check out the record of the 1000 pi day cycle (3,141 days or 8.605 years - 23rd February 2007 was the day the index of subprime mortgage debt topped out, late 1998 was the Russian financial crisis, and late 1989 was the Japanese stockmarket top....so this cycle always seems to pick out something important. The war cycle is rising, Russia starting bombing in Syria on the turn date of 1st October last year was a mainfestation of that. Behind apparent chaos, there is a hidden order to events as cycles throughout history attest. Clearly by your attitude, you don't want to see that, in that case that's your loss not mine.0 -
Yes, and he is right! The electorate can be pretty stupid.Alanbrooke said:
He thinks hes smarter than the electorateSeanT said:
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
Sure, on one level .
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.
Indeed the problem of being smarter than the electorate is that he may fail to comprehend them.
Still its early days yet.0 -
Think he just overestimated his salesman ability. He thought the press and public would fool for the spin.SeanT said:
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.0 -
Who will be the first Cameroon to post tonight in a manner that suggests they have had better things to do all day and are staying uber calm while all the Eurosceptics get over excited?0
-
the wisdom of crowds says he better get sellingfoxinsoxuk said:
Yes, and he is right! The electorate can be pretty stupid.Alanbrooke said:
He thinks hes smarter than the electorateSeanT said:
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
Sure, on one level .
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.
Indeed the problem of being smarter than the electorate is that he may fail to comprehend them.
Still its early days yet.0 -
Richard Nabavi seems quiet.isam said:Who will be the first Cameroon to post tonight in a manner that suggests they have had better things to do all day and are staying uber calm while all the Eurosceptics get over excited?
0
