politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE moves into lead for 1st time in ICM’s EURef tracker

Sorry, Prime Minister - but Yay!!!

"LEAVE moves into lead for 1st time in ICM’s EURef tracker"
Just what Cameron deserves. That "master strategist" Osborne seems to have learnt nothing from Crosby. Can we please have more talk about immigration from project fear.

If the polls are here now in Frozen February, when spring comes to Southern Europe in April and May....sheeesh.

Weak sample anecdote.
A year ago 5 Conservative members 60 yrs+ "always voters" were 3:2 for Remain and are now 3:1 for Leave and one DK. Growing anger over the pi** poor deal.

I don't understand why you aren't ALEURPing the poll. Clearly puts it Remain 58%.

Also, if Cameron thinks he will lose, won't it be more sensible to be PM for another two years, rather than either having to resign in June or being considered a failure for rest of premiership??

LEAVE = believe in Britain
REMAIN = believe in Brussels

Do YOU believe in Britain?

david_herdson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Scott_P said:

@jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

The only unsafe element for more doctors working saturdays is the effect it will have on their personal lives. More of them working at those days = less time spent with their families = more unhappiness = less safe relationships. Of course more patients will be alive and suffer less, but why would these doctors care about the patients.? The NHS is after all run for the convenience of its staff.

I did wonder whether it was to do with scheduling at golf clubs.

And Lodge meetings.

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Also, if Cameron thinks he will lose, won't it be more sensible to be PM for another two years, rather than either having to resign in June or being considered a failure for rest of premiership??

He only has a few days to decide to delay beyond June. Squeaky bum time* at number 10 & 11?

* Alex Ferguson

I'm genuinely a swing voter on this. I will PROBABLY vote to remain but I am definitely not certain. In other news I might well be back posting with my real name as am on verge of leaving my employer.

Has anyone seen @Cromwell about by the way ?

"Lloyd's of London says Brexit would hamper its global business

Insurance market says a vote to leave the EU would create barriers to customers but no 'regulatory nirvana'"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/insurance/12150680/Lloyds-of-London-says-Brexit-would-hamper-its-global-business.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739910 there you go

When does Cameron have to decide itt's June? 18th Feb? Is it too late for him to pull back?

I genuinely don't know the answer to these questions. I am sure, however, that they never intended to start a euroref campaign with the polls implying they would lose.

I imagine they thought they'd be 10-20 points ahead and would merely to have press the obvious buttons.

So the idea of "rescheduling" the vote MUST be on someone's mind.

Cameron *not* getting a deal at the coming EU summit would certainly help on that score. It'd also help Cameron's image with waverers if he's seen to be adopting a firmer stance.

'It'd also help Cameron's image with waverers if he's seen to be adopting a firmer stance.'

Still big hopes for the smoke and mirrors approach I see...

Huzzah...!

TGOHF said:

Indigo said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Et voila

@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 41% (-1)
Leave: 42% (+3)
(via ICM / 05 - 07 Feb)

Remain led 44/38 with ICM at the start of January.

The trend is entirely one way. In a month, LEAVE could be out of sight, with a 10-15 point lead, with all major ammo spent by both sides. How does the government stop it?

I am rather interested by the somewhat curious idea that all the immigrants will wait patiently until after June before moving en-masse on the European borders. Given the trend towards governments closing borders and toughening legislation I can't see why the mass movement wont start as soon as the snows thaw, say some when in the next 6-8 weeks, to have a fighting chance of getting inside the key countries before those going before them force those borders closed.

tl;dr: If Cameron thinks the news isn't going to be full of huge migrant movements every night well before his June referendum, he is dreaming.

Good point if Brexit looks more likely then perhaps the Jungle inhabitants will redouble their efforts before the doors shut forever.

Brexit will open the doors wont it?

watford30 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

david_herdson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Scott_P said:

@jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

The only unsafe element for more doctors working saturdays is the effect it will have on their personal lives. More of them working at those days = less time spent with their families = more unhappiness = less safe relationships. Of course more patients will be alive and suffer less, but why would these doctors care about the patients.? The NHS is after all run for the convenience of its staff.

I did wonder whether it was to do with scheduling at golf clubs.

That's the Friday problem, but you may be right for the Saturday ones. It is all about interfering in people's lifestyles. Junior doctors are mainly in that "young family" cycle of life and we should appreciate their need for maintaing their quality of life.

But, unless I'm mistaken, they won't be expected to work every day of every weekend.

Plenty of other people manage family lives around similar shift patterns, for much lower pay, and without the same career progression.

My bank's open on a Saturday afternoon, and I can get my haircut on a Sunday. Why should the expensive MRI scanner in the local hospital be lying idle?

You clearly are not sharing in the really awful situation these gilded lillies are facing. Once upon a time they worked 1 saturday a month between the two doctors. They did this by avoiding A&E work which is why A&E is usually short of doctors. In the future this one saturday is likely to become 3 a month split between the two doctors so they end up with just one saturday a month for them both to be off work at the same time. This is a massive infringement into their lifestyle with an end to their time with friends, trips to ikea and cafe living. Dinner parties on Saturdays become impossible as not all guests can come at the same time.

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/JonB_89/status/697375169011183616

Fantastic... the fav politrican of my Dad and myself, although Dad had him down as 60 when trying to describe who he was!

Particularly enjoyable is the way that JR-M invalidates Stephen Pound's boast without even trying.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/10/pms-refusal-to-engage-with-eu-over-refugees-is-helping?CMP=share_btn_tw

Apparently Yvette thinks that Cameron should be taking in more refugees as that will help settle things down in Europe and make people in the UK less eurosceptic..... Call it the Merkel approach? Just imagine if Labour had chosen her rather than Corbyn?

AndyJS said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/JonB_89/status/697375169011183616

Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.

Hopefully the Rees-Mogg quotation has been cut short and he actually said "... 99 righteous people that do not need to repent," or words to that effect. One wouldn't like to think that the Conservative benches were populated with men that mangle the scriptures.

watford30 said:

Indigo said:

AndyJS said:

"Lloyd's of London says Brexit would hamper its global business

Insurance market says a vote to leave the EU would create barriers to customers but no 'regulatory nirvana'"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/insurance/12150680/Lloyds-of-London-says-Brexit-would-hamper-its-global-business.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I think Cameron needs to shut the banks up about this, they are not doing him any favours. Fat cats that took squillions from the public purse in bail outs now whining about slightly thinner balance sheets isn't a good look to Joe Public.

Lloyds of London is an insurance market, not a bank.

And you do know that bankers didn't pocket the bailout money personally, and why it was injected into the system?

You're naive if you think that none of the money ended up in people's pockets.

If Cameron does not get a deal next month he doesn't have a package to offer the British Public so the referendum gets postponed, he looks marginally tougher, there is time to cobble together a more credible package and for the polls to move more favourably again.

Maybe I am getting too cynical but I think the prospects of him signing off a deal are falling by the hour.

I have been thinking what could change my mind. One possibility is that things get really bad again. If they do then whatever the long term benefits the argument that this is not the time to jump out of the lifeboat (or sinking ship of course, depending on how the crisis shows itself) into the uncertainty of deals still to be negotiated may become compelling.

I linked a couple of times to a chart last week showing the very rapidly increasing cost of insuring against the default of investment grade bank debt. Liquidity is draining out of our banking system as those who used to be ready sources of credit such as major commodity providers fall into deficit and look to sell down their existing holdings. Without going all @hunchman about it I think the financial outlook is as bad as it has been for at least 4 years, possibly longer.

Watch this space. Nurse just might start to look more attractive.

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/JonB_89/status/697375169011183616

Fantastic... the fav politrican of my Dad and myself, although Dad had him down as 60 when trying to describe who he was!

Particularly enjoyable is the way that JR-M invalidates Stephen Pound's boast without even trying.

"I'm not a racist, but if my daughter came home ..."

Another MP smeared in allegations which have now been dropped.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3440499/Solicitor-claimed-married-Tory-MP-pestered-affair-one-night-stand-drops-250-000-compensation-claim.html

Looks like Remain took a small hit from Cameron's deal.

In other news, Johnny Depp stars as Donald Trump in "Art of the Deal, The Movie", directed by Ron Howard :

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ad38087bac/donald-trump-art-of-the-deal-movie?_cc=__d___&_ccid=cec08d822f9aa214

Wanderer said:

DavidL said:

If Cameron does not get a deal next month he doesn't have a package to offer the British Public so the referendum gets postponed, he looks marginally tougher, there is time to cobble together a more credible package and for the polls to move more favourably again.

Maybe I am getting too cynical but I think the prospects of him signing off a deal are falling by the hour.

I have been thinking what could change my mind. One possibility is that things get really bad again. If they do then whatever the long term benefits the argument that this is not the time to jump out of the lifeboat (or sinking ship of course, depending on how the crisis shows itself) into the uncertainty of deals still to be negotiated may become compelling.

I linked a couple of times to a chart last week showing the very rapidly increasing cost of insuring against the default of investment grade bank debt. Liquidity is draining out of our banking system as those who used to be ready sources of credit such as major commodity providers fall into deficit and look to sell down their existing holdings. Without going all @hunchman about it I think the financial outlook is as bad as it has been for at least 4 years, possibly longer.

Watch this space. Nurse just might start to look more attractive.

In order to not sign off he really needs to be able to explain how it's worse than the deal he has said is OK? Or can he say "That was a promising draft but the positions of our partners have not moved in the way we need them to?"

He's a politician and a clever one at that. He can find something aspirational that he has been unable to tie down to his satisfaction.

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Re doctors' pay, I was at a party this weekend and was chatting to a registrar neurologist. She explained to me that the big problem with the Hunt programme was that it was effectively a massive pay cut for certain specialities (such as A&E), while a massive pay rise for others. (Those who work in specialities with lots of night-time and weekend working are going to get less, while those who are almost entirely in elective, and non-emergency areas, are going to get more.)

She was particularly critical given that - apparently - A&E is already the department where it is hardest to recruit and keep doctors.

So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?

She hasn't gone on strike, and isn't a BMA member.

But I do wonder if the whole thing could have been avoided if they'd divided it up by specialities and had variable payrises between 3% and 18%, and then eliminated overtime and the like.

DavidL said:

If Cameron does not get a deal next month he doesn't have a package to offer the British Public so the referendum gets postponed, he looks marginally tougher, there is time to cobble together a more credible package and for the polls to move more favourably again.

Maybe I am getting too cynical but I think the prospects of him signing off a deal are falling by the hour.

I have been thinking what could change my mind. One possibility is that things get really bad again. If they do then whatever the long term benefits the argument that this is not the time to jump out of the lifeboat (or sinking ship of course, depending on how the crisis shows itself) into the uncertainty of deals still to be negotiated may become compelling.

I linked a couple of times to a chart last week showing the very rapidly increasing cost of insuring against the default of investment grade bank debt. Liquidity is draining out of our banking system as those who used to be ready sources of credit such as major commodity providers fall into deficit and look to sell down their existing holdings. Without going all @hunchman about it I think the financial outlook is as bad as it has been for at least 4 years, possibly longer.

Watch this space. Nurse just might start to look more attractive.

I already used the lifeboat analogy a day or so ago. I believe I was more accurate in saying that we are standing on the deck of the Titanic and being told not to leave because we can't decide which colour lifeboats to use.

The EU is not going to get better for the UK. As the financial climate worsens problems we saw a few years ago will return. Things can only get worse as long as we remain onboard. Either we take the lifeboat now or we suffer far more when we are forced to swim for it later.

Boo hoo, yet another one.

Jihadist who deserted IS and returned to the UK after becoming complaining of a lack of hot water and other comforts jailed. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/crime/article4687560.ece

DavidL said:

If Cameron does not get a deal next month he doesn't have a package to offer the British Public so the referendum gets postponed, he looks marginally tougher, there is time to cobble together a more credible package and for the polls to move more favourably again.

Maybe I am getting too cynical but I think the prospects of him signing off a deal are falling by the hour.

I have been thinking what could change my mind. One possibility is that things get really bad again. If they do then whatever the long term benefits the argument that this is not the time to jump out of the lifeboat (or sinking ship of course, depending on how the crisis shows itself) into the uncertainty of deals still to be negotiated may become compelling.

I linked a couple of times to a chart last week showing the very rapidly increasing cost of insuring against the default of investment grade bank debt. Liquidity is draining out of our banking system as those who used to be ready sources of credit such as major commodity providers fall into deficit and look to sell down their existing holdings. Without going all @hunchman about it I think the financial outlook is as bad as it has been for at least 4 years, possibly longer.

Watch this space. Nurse just might start to look more attractive.

As the resident optimist here, I would point out that - in Europe at least - both consumer and corporate debt have shrunk dramatically since 2007. Outstanding loans at Europe's top 20 banks are down 18% since 2008, and that understates the drop, because those 20 have taken massive market share. (I.e. there are a whole bunch of banks that don't exist any more.)

If you take the net debt of the 500 largest companies in Europe (the Bloomberg 500), and sum up the net debt of non-banks, you see it fell from EUR2.0trillion in 2007, to EUR1.5trn in 2008.

Plus the banks have massively more capital than in 2007/8. RBS had core tier one of - what - 3.5% in 2007/8. It's now (what) 12%.

So, banks are owed much less, and have 3-4x the loss absorbing capacity that they used to.

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Re doctors' pay, I was at a party this weekend and was chatting to a registrar neurologist. She explained to me that the big problem with the Hunt programme was that it was effectively a massive pay cut for certain specialities (such as A&E), while a massive pay rise for others. (Those who work in specialities with lots of night-time and weekend working are going to get less, while those who are almost entirely in elective, and non-emergency areas, are going to get more.)

She was particularly critical given that - apparently - A&E is already the department where it is hardest to recruit and keep doctors.

So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?

She hasn't gone on strike, and isn't a BMA member.

But I do wonder if the whole thing could have been avoided if they'd divided it up by specialities and had variable payrises between 3% and 18%, and then eliminated overtime and the like.

Yes some basic laws of the market would have fixed this and I wonder why the socialist nhs did not go down that path?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Re doctors' pay, I was at a party this weekend and was chatting to a registrar neurologist. She explained to me that the big problem with the Hunt programme was that it was effectively a massive pay cut for certain specialities (such as A&E), while a massive pay rise for others. (Those who work in specialities with lots of night-time and weekend working are going to get less, while those who are almost entirely in elective, and non-emergency areas, are going to get more.)

She was particularly critical given that - apparently - A&E is already the department where it is hardest to recruit and keep doctors.

So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?

She hasn't gone on strike, and isn't a BMA member.

But I do wonder if the whole thing could have been avoided if they'd divided it up by specialities and had variable payrises between 3% and 18%, and then eliminated overtime and the like.

Yes some basic laws of the market would have fixed this and I wonder why the socialist nhs did not go down that path?

Can't disagree with that...

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Plato_Says said:

Every couple of days there's another conviction for terrorism.

Religion of Peace, my arse.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Plato_Says said:

And another one

Breaking: Kristen Brekke, Adeel Ulhaq and Forhad Rahman, who helped youth join IS in Syria, jailed for 4 and a half years, 6 years & 5 years

"helping a 17-year-old boy to join Islamic State by supplying him with money, equipment, expertise and contacts"

Assisting in manslaughter.

I always wonder why a 17 year old cannot find a real virgin, rather than be sold myths of them. (Not that I saw much attraction in virgins when I was 17.....)

72 year old virgins?

If only the Imans preached that outcome.

Interesting from Nick Cohen - anyone care to guess what Galloway will actually poll? 3%?

Khan’s supporters dismiss Galloway’s political organisation as little more than a Twitter feed these days. But in their hearts they must be worried. Galloway is capable of winning a substantial vote. He came from nowhere to take parliamentary seats, first in Tower Hamlets and then in Bradford. His supporters are unlikely to make Khan their second preference, after Galloway has spent the campaign attacking Khan’s supposed treasons. More to the point Galloway’s prejudices are the prejudices of London’s Corbynites, the people Khan needs to campaign for him.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/would-jeremy-corbyn-prefer-george-galloway-to-be-mayor-of-london/

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

DavidL said:

If Cameron does not get a deal next month he doesn't have a package to offer the British Public so the referendum gets postponed, he looks marginally tougher, there is time to cobble together a more credible package and for the polls to move more favourably again.

Maybe I am getting too cynical but I think the prospects of him signing off a deal are falling by the hour.

I have been thinking what could change my mind. One possibility is that things get really bad again. If they do then whatever the long term benefits the argument that this is not the time to jump out of the lifeboat (or sinking ship of course, depending on how the crisis shows itself) into the uncertainty of deals still to be negotiated may become compelling.

I linked a couple of times to a chart last week showing the very rapidly increasing cost of insuring against the default of investment grade bank debt. Liquidity is draining out of our banking system as those who used to be ready sources of credit such as major commodity providers fall into deficit and look to sell down their existing holdings. Without going all @hunchman about it I think the financial outlook is as bad as it has been for at least 4 years, possibly longer.

Watch this space. Nurse just might start to look more attractive.

In order to not sign off he really needs to be able to explain how it's worse than the deal he has said is OK? Or can he say "That was a promising draft but the positions of our partners have not moved in the way we need them to?"

He's a politician and a clever one at that. He can find something aspirational that he has been unable to tie down to his satisfaction.

I dare say that's right. Would be interesting to see how he did it though.

TGOHF said:

Indigo said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Et voila

@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 41% (-1)
Leave: 42% (+3)
(via ICM / 05 - 07 Feb)

Remain led 44/38 with ICM at the start of January.

The trend is entirely one way. In a month, LEAVE could be out of sight, with a 10-15 point lead, with all major ammo spent by both sides. How does the government stop it?

I am rather interested by the somewhat curious idea that all the immigrants will wait patiently until after June before moving en-masse on the European borders. Given the trend towards governments closing borders and toughening legislation I can't see why the mass movement wont start as soon as the snows thaw, say some when in the next 6-8 weeks, to have a fighting chance of getting inside the key countries before those going before them force those borders closed.

tl;dr: If Cameron thinks the news isn't going to be full of huge migrant movements every night well before his June referendum, he is dreaming.

Good point if Brexit looks more likely then perhaps the Jungle inhabitants will redouble their efforts before the doors shut forever.

You really think that if we leave, Ahmed is going to turn to Naseem and say right lads that's it we'd better pack up and go home. Our leaving the EU will not change this situation one jot.

Mr. H, perhaps he considers Labour his religion, and departure from it apostasy.

CornishBlue said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/JonB_89/status/697375169011183616

"I'm the least sectarian of people..."

I often find that Labour supporters are actually the most sectarian. They are brought up to believe, continue to believe, and teach to their children the belief, that Tories = Scum.

Proved again by this pathetic MP.

For the least sectarian of people he does sound pretty damned sectarian doesn't he?

Lucian_Fletcher said:

I'm genuinely a swing voter on this. I will PROBABLY vote to remain but I am definitely not certain. In other news I might well be back posting with my real name as am on verge of leaving my employer.

Good to see you back after a five month absence and an even longer absence before that.
IIRC you were once one of PB's prolific posters and proved the old adage that "you can leave PB, you will also return". Incidentally I hope the same also applies to my near namesake who has gone AWOL for the last several months.
If memory serves, I believe you were working for The Times group, but were looking to make a move to Ireland ..... or am I confusing you with someone else?

P.S you're one of the few Tories on here who has gone public in stating that they appears intend to to vote for Remain .... has Ireland perhaps converted you into a Europhile?

philiph said:

AndyJS said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/JonB_89/status/697375169011183616

Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.

And that S Pound is unaware of the meaning of 'sectarian'

Has it been confirmed his was not a joke? It sounds like the sort of thing people say about football clubs.

HurstLlama said:

"Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....

peter_from_putney said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

I'm genuinely a swing voter on this. I will PROBABLY vote to remain but I am definitely not certain. In other news I might well be back posting with my real name as am on verge of leaving my employer.

Good to see you back after a five month absence and an even longer absence before that.
IIRC you were once one of PB's prolific posters and proved the old age that "you can leave PB, you will also return. incidentally I hope the same also applies to my near namesake who has gone AWOL for the last several months.
If memory serves, I believe you were working for The Times group, but were looking to make a move to Ireland ..... or am I confusing you with someone else?

P.S you're one of the few Tories on here who has gone public in stating that they appears intend to to vote for Remain .... has Ireland perhaps converted you into a Europhile?

We are a growing number.... a new recruit to the new Tory not obsessed etc party