politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef campaign looks set to come down to Cameron versus

System · February 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef campaign looks set to come down to Cameron versus the Tory press

Thanks to Guido for his collage of today’s front pages of the Tory papers following the negotiations on Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

Read the full story here

Ally_B · February 2016

People will vote to stay in even with that press. The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy. There no campaign will not be able to put together an argument for Brexit that will satisfy those people.

CarlottaVance · February 2016

Second...like Leave.....or maybe not.....

CarlottaVance · February 2016

The Guardian is going to tie itself in knots supporting Cameron if Steve Bell's cartoon is anything to go by:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2016/feb/02/steve-bell-on-david-camerons-eu-negotiations-cartoon

Along with (most of) Labour and (all of) the SNP.......

felix · February 2016

Don't forget SeanT and the other PB nutjobs - they've been frothing all day and night - how can Leave possibly lose?

CarlottaVance · February 2016

felix said:
Don't forget SeanT and the other PB nutjobs - they've been frothing all day and night - how can Leave possibly lose?

I'll repost - as Friankie Boyle observes of other intemperate campaigners:

Can't help feeling that this persuading people to vote for Independence by telling them to go f*ck themselves tactic has a few flaws

CarlottaVance · February 2016

Not shaping up to be a great week for the Nonce Finder General either:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3429164/Shambolic-VIP-child-sex-abuse-murder-inquiry-close-Scotland-Yard-concludes-no-substance-claims.html

peter_from_putney · February 2016

The betting markets have moved quite sharply over recent days in favour of Remain, evidenced by the fact that Paddy Power are currently offering decimal odds of 3.5 (aka 5/2) against Leave. In probability terms this equates to only a 28.6% chance of there being a Leave vote come the referendum.
Whilst this might accurately reflect the final outcome, I can't help but feel that as a trading opportunity, these odds could possibly shorten in the short term as public opinion, aided by adverse media coverage, expresses its disappointment with the very meagre results achieved from the UK Government's so-called re-negotiations.
DYOR.

felix · February 2016

CarlottaVance said:

felix said:
Don't forget SeanT and the other PB nutjobs - they've been frothing all day and night - how can Leave possibly lose?
I'll repost - as Friankie Boyle observes of other intemperate campaigners:

Can't help feeling that this persuading people to vote for Independence by telling them to go f*ck themselves tactic has a few flaws

It's so very like the attitude of the Corbynistas to those who cannot see the 'truth' and who think internet forums are the same as public opinion.

tlg86 · February 2016

Ally_B said:
The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy.

If this was true then the Tories would win a landslide at every general election.

Innocent_Abroad · February 2016

tlg86 said:

Ally_B said:
The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy.
If this was true then the Tories would win a landslide at every general election.

So why don't they?

RobD · February 2016

Innocent_Abroad said:

tlg86 said:

Ally_B said:
The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy.
If this was true then the Tories would win a landslide at every general election.
So why don't they?

Because we are scum!

Innocent_Abroad · February 2016

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

tlg86 said:

Ally_B said:
The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy.
If this was true then the Tories would win a landslide at every general election.
So why don't they?

Because we are scum!

Don't steal my lines, Rob

RobD · February 2016

Innocent_Abroad said:

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

tlg86 said:

Ally_B said:
The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy.
If this was true then the Tories would win a landslide at every general election.
So why don't they?

Because we are scum!
Don't steal my lines, Rob

Argh! I'm a cheating stealing PB Tory scum

Casino_Royale · February 2016

Ally_B said:
People will vote to stay in even with that press. The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy. There no campaign will not be able to put together an argument for Brexit that will satisfy those people.

I think that's correct. There will even be people who want to Leave who end up voting for Remain for those reasons.

Cameron knows he'll get a shellacking for this deal (although perhaps he wasn't quite expecting it to be universal) but he calculates that with his whole cabinet behind him, the Leave campaigns in disarray and an early referendum that it's worth the risk over the alternative.

The deal would probably have been no better had he waited until 6 months, and the risks of losing far greater.

Final thought: it is worth noting this isn't the *final* deal, just the draft heads of term to fellow EU leaders. It's perfectly possible there is another choreographed rabbit to come.

I also think Gove and Cameron will produce a Human Rights dead cat in April or May.

NickPalmer · February 2016

The papers that Guido doesn't show (and the Times that he does) are more nuanced - the Mirror is more or less neutral, the Telegraph focuses on possible Leave supporters in the Cabinet, the Guardian and Times have moderately positive headlines. The Express and the Sun were always going to be unhelpful, so it's mainly the Mail group (Mail+Metro) that will furrow Cameron's brow. It'll be interesting to see what the polls do, partly to illuminate how influential the press now is. Like PfP I think there's probably a trading bet there.

ThreeQuidder · February 2016

The Metro is the big one here. It's the most politically neutral of the papers - it generally acts as if party politics is beneath it - and its headlines (at least) get seen by millions of commuters.

MP_SE · February 2016

Ally_B said:
People will vote to stay in even with that press. The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy. There no campaign will not be able to put together an argument for Brexit that will satisfy those people.

Access to the single market and membership of the EU are not the same. IF one of the campaigns proposes EFTA and EEA as an alternative to membership of the EU the Remain campaign will be in trouble as all of their arguments assume we will lose access to the single market.

Innocent_Abroad · February 2016

ThreeQuidder said:
The Metro is the big one here. It's the most politically neutral of the papers - it generally acts as if party politics is beneath it - and its headlines (at least) get seen by millions of commuters.

Seen and forgotten pronto... they all have lives to lead...

JohnLilburne · February 2016

On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.

MarqueeMark · February 2016

But really, Cameron had to be expecting these headlines. It's what you get when go into a negotiation without having done Middle East Carpet Haggling 1.0 You do not bound up to a carpet seller and say "I want a carpet my good man. And this is how much I can afford..."

The EU never, for one moment, thought he would walk out of their carpet shop without a carpet under his arm. So he gets a crappy piece of moth-eaten rubbish from out the back. Good luck impressing the voters when you lay that on the floor of Number 10, Prime Minister.

Plato_Says · February 2016

I'm still digesting how rubbish the Remain deal is. As a Leaver, I'm pleased as punch - but golly what a shocker for those wanting to Remain and getting this dished up.

Those front-pages are appalling. Perhaps when the dust settles, we'll find some nuggets in the small print - but I seriously doubt it. The EU have conceded barely an inch.

Glad I'm not in Number 10 this morning.

Plato_Says · February 2016

In a burka!

STONE HIM!

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

tlg86 said:

Ally_B said:
The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy.
If this was true then the Tories would win a landslide at every general election.
So why don't they?

Because we are scum!
Don't steal my lines, Rob

Argh! I'm a cheating stealing PB Tory scum

Plato_Says · February 2016

Yup. If anything, I thought the Metro was a little left of centre. The ubiquity of their paper makes it hard to avoid.

ThreeQuidder said:
The Metro is the big one here. It's the most politically neutral of the papers - it generally acts as if party politics is beneath it - and its headlines (at least) get seen by millions of commuters.

Casino_Royale · February 2016

MarqueeMark said:
But really, Cameron had to be expecting these headlines. It's what you get when go into a negotiation without having done Middle East Carpet Haggling 1.0 You do not bound up to a carpet seller and say "I want a carpet my good man. And this is how much I can afford..."

The EU never, for one moment, thought he would walk out of their carpet shop without a carpet under his arm. So he gets a crappy piece of moth-eaten rubbish from out the back. Good luck impressing the voters when you lay that on the floor of Number 10, Prime Minister.

Good analogy. And that's the problem for Cameron.

Had he been in earnest but the EU simply told him to go f**k himself then all of the Conservative Party would have been full square behind him, and even trusted him to lead the negotiations if we voted Leave.

NorfolkTilIDie · February 2016

The newspapers are reporting how bad the deal is, even the Guardian and FT. Cameron's really being helped by the BBC not having any expert come on to give objective perspective, or to give Conservative spokesmen a tough time. Bet heavy pressure is being applied behind the scenes.

richardDodd · February 2016

Cameron is no ones fool and he will be aware that the proposals are dead in the water..He can reject them if he wishes ..but that would probably lead to a definite Brexit..

NorfolkTilIDie · February 2016

MarqueeMark said:
But really, Cameron had to be expecting these headlines. It's what you get when go into a negotiation without having done Middle East Carpet Haggling 1.0 You do not bound up to a carpet seller and say "I want a carpet my good man. And this is how much I can afford..."

The EU never, for one moment, thought he would walk out of their carpet shop without a carpet under his arm. So he gets a crappy piece of moth-eaten rubbish from out the back. Good luck impressing the voters when you lay that on the floor of Number 10, Prime Minister.

Even after seeing the results the first time, he's still doing it again now. Its just a draft memo with further negotiations to be done but he's already saying it's everything he wanted. I guess he couldn't resist bigging up deal while cabinet ministers are still muzzled. Am amazed Tories put up with this.

Richard_Tyndall · February 2016

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.

Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.

RobD · February 2016

richardDodd said:
Cameron is no ones fool and he will be aware that the proposals are dead in the water..He can reject them if he wishes ..but that would probably lead to a definite Brexit..

Which would be some pretty awesome leverage to use against the EU.... if only he would.

Plato_Says · February 2016

For those commuters

Map shows the average house price at every Tube stop https://t.co/mtu7Ul6Flm https://t.co/ai0jMZ5Ke3

Metatron · February 2016

Who peddles the myth that `Cameron is good in a crisis` - this is a man who does panicky knee jerk reactions as typified by his response to 1 adverse opinion poll in the Scottish referendum and endless u-turns over other adverse opinion pools

rcs1000 · February 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.

I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.

Plato_Says · February 2016

This is quite sweet in a loony luvvies way

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-jeremy-corbyn-story-that-nobody-wanted-to-publish-a6848651.html

Theuniondivvie · February 2016

felix said:

CarlottaVance said:

felix said:
Don't forget SeanT and the other PB nutjobs - they've been frothing all day and night - how can Leave possibly lose?
I'll repost - as Friankie Boyle observes of other intemperate campaigners:

Can't help feeling that this persuading people to vote for Independence by telling them to go f*ck themselves tactic has a few flaws
It's so very like the attitude of the Corbynistas to those who cannot see the 'truth' and who think internet forums are the same as public opinion.

Since all the available evidence suggests you don't/can't do irony, I assume you think there's no obligation to persuade the frothers and 'nutjobs' of the virtues of your position?

Casino_Royale · February 2016

richardDodd said:
Cameron is no ones fool and he will be aware that the proposals are dead in the water..He can reject them if he wishes ..but that would probably lead to a definite Brexit..

He calculates it doesn't matter too much. Project Fear and strategic muzzling will win it.

The 2014 indyref and experience of the 2015GE changed everything.

Williamz · February 2016

The child benefit issue is simply bonkers. They are going to be paid at the rate available in the country the child resides. How is anyone going to monitor and administer such a crazy system??

Utterly unworkable and will never happen.

Casino_Royale · February 2016

NickPalmer said:
The papers that Guido doesn't show (and the Times that he does) are more nuanced - the Mirror is more or less neutral, the Telegraph focuses on possible Leave supporters in the Cabinet, the Guardian and Times have moderately positive headlines. The Express and the Sun were always going to be unhelpful, so it's mainly the Mail group (Mail+Metro) that will furrow Cameron's brow. It'll be interesting to see what the polls do, partly to illuminate how influential the press now is. Like PfP I think there's probably a trading bet there.

The Mirror being neutral is a story in itself.

RobD · February 2016

Metatron said:
Who peddles the myth that `Cameron is good in a crisis` - this is a man who does panicky knee jerk reactions as typified by his response to 1 adverse opinion poll in the Scottish referendum and endless u-turns over other adverse opinion pools

Pretty sure they meant he was good at candycrush. That, or chillaxing.

Richard_Tyndall · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.

So you are saying that a school leaver unable to find a job should be denied any benefits for 4 years?

More to the point, whether you agree or disagree with a proposal, it cannot be right that the only reason we consider it is to satisfy the EU.

Pauly · February 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.

Any 16 year old or 18 year old who starts working will have been resident for 4 years... maybe I'm missing something but I don't see the problem.

NorfolkTilIDie · February 2016

I note the BBC is claiming there is an opt out of ever closer union. Read the text. This is just not true. It says there ere multiple interpretations of ever closer union and one interpretation doesn't necessarily apply to the UK, but the main principle still does.

SouthamObserver · February 2016

Today's headlines were written months ago, as was the "deal" that Dave has got and the "hard talking" that led to it. We are entering the final stage of a game that was devised a few years ago in order to prevent the Tories leaking votes to UKIP in last year's GE.

Anyone out there who is surprised at how all this has panned out should contact me. I have some magic beans available for relatively low cost that when planted and carefully cultivated sprout an endless supply of solid gold ingots.

felix · February 2016

Theuniondivvie said:

felix said:

CarlottaVance said:

felix said:
Don't forget SeanT and the other PB nutjobs - they've been frothing all day and night - how can Leave possibly lose?
I'll repost - as Friankie Boyle observes of other intemperate campaigners:

Can't help feeling that this persuading people to vote for Independence by telling them to go f*ck themselves tactic has a few flaws
It's so very like the attitude of the Corbynistas to those who cannot see the 'truth' and who think internet forums are the same as public opinion.
Since all the available evidence suggests you don't/can't do irony, I assume you think there's no obligation to persuade the frothers and 'nutjobs' of the virtues of your position?

None whatsoever.

SouthamObserver · February 2016

Plato_Says said:
This is quite sweet in a loony luvvies way

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-jeremy-corbyn-story-that-nobody-wanted-to-publish-a6848651.html

A parody, surely.

felix · February 2016

Metatron said:
Who peddles the myth that `Cameron is good in a crisis` - this is a man who does panicky knee jerk reactions as typified by his response to 1 adverse opinion poll in the Scottish referendum and endless u-turns over other adverse opinion pools

He's utterly useless compared to Ed Miliband PM...oh wait....

NorfolkTilIDie · February 2016

NickPalmer said:
The papers that Guido doesn't show (and the Times that he does) are more nuanced - the Mirror is more or less neutral, the Telegraph focuses on possible Leave supporters in the Cabinet, the Guardian and Times have moderately positive headlines. The Express and the Sun were always going to be unhelpful, so it's mainly the Mail group (Mail+Metro) that will furrow Cameron's brow. It'll be interesting to see what the polls do, partly to illuminate how influential the press now is. Like PfP I think there's probably a trading bet there.

The Times criticises Cameron's negotiation as being from a position of a supplicant the whole time and never trying to be a true reformer. Hardly nuanced!

felix · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.

Absolutely. We're practically the only EU country without a contributory element.

RobD · February 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.
So you are saying that a school leaver unable to find a job should be denied any benefits for 4 years?

More to the point, whether you agree or disagree with a proposal, it cannot be right that the only reason we consider it is to satisfy the EU.

I'd think a mix of benefit and training would be in order if they've just left school. With extra contributions the benefits should be (slightly) more generous.

NorfolkTilIDie · February 2016

SouthamObserver said:
Today's headlines were written months ago, as was the "deal" that Dave has got and the "hard talking" that led to it. We are entering the final stage of a game that was devised a few years ago in order to prevent the Tories leaking votes to UKIP in last year's GE.

Anyone out there who is surprised at how all this has panned out should contact me. I have some magic beans available for relatively low cost that when planted and carefully cultivated sprout an endless supply of solid gold ingots.

If this deal was planned months ago, Osborne wouldn't have been out arguing the importance of protection for non-Euro states and the City, given we didn't get any.

JohnLilburne · February 2016

Pauly said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
Any 16 year old or 18 year old who starts working will have been resident for 4 years... maybe I'm missing something but I don't see the problem.

Quite. If something doesn't work in the environment in which we find ourselves, you change it.

Another point on child benefit is the Habitual Residency Test which you have to pass to get benefits.

If your children live abroad, I don't see how you can be said to be habitually resident in the UK. Unless of course you have split up with the partner who is looking after the kids, in which case you can't claim for them.

Richard_Tyndall · February 2016

Pauly said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
Any 16 year old or 18 year old who starts working will have been resident for 4 years... maybe I'm missing something but I don't see the problem.

In which case John Liliburn point earlier which I was responding to was moot since in can never apply to UK citizens.

Morris_Dancer · February 2016

Good morning, everyone.

The Sun's cover is rather good.

JohnLilburne · February 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pauly said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
Any 16 year old or 18 year old who starts working will have been resident for 4 years... maybe I'm missing something but I don't see the problem.
In which case John Liliburn point earlier which I was responding to was moot since in can never apply to UK citizens.

That's not quite the case, as some British citizens have lived all their lives abroad. But I was simply pointing out that you should be able to change the benefit rules to exclude recent immigrants without disadvantaging deserving current claimants.

RobD · February 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

The Sun's cover is rather good.

I see they avoided putting EU flags on there risking comparison with that rather unsavoury chap from the mid 20th century.

Plato_Says · February 2016

QTWTAIN
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/briefing-what-is-the-eu-red-card-and-will-it-make-any-difference-at-all/

SouthamObserver · February 2016

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SouthamObserver said:
Today's headlines were written months ago, as was the "deal" that Dave has got and the "hard talking" that led to it. We are entering the final stage of a game that was devised a few years ago in order to prevent the Tories leaking votes to UKIP in last year's GE.

Anyone out there who is surprised at how all this has panned out should contact me. I have some magic beans available for relatively low cost that when planted and carefully cultivated sprout an endless supply of solid gold ingots.
If this deal was planned months ago, Osborne wouldn't have been out arguing the importance of protection for non-Euro states and the City, given we didn't get any.

It's a two way game. The other member states also have to get some visible wins.

Morris_Dancer · February 2016

Mr. D, de Gaulle?

malcolmg · February 2016

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

tlg86 said:

Ally_B said:
The only thing that matters to 90% of the population is their income and the economy.
If this was true then the Tories would win a landslide at every general election.
So why don't they?

Because we are scum!

Rob you missed out NASTY

SouthamObserver · February 2016

Plato_Says said:
This is quite sweet in a loony luvvies way

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-jeremy-corbyn-story-that-nobody-wanted-to-publish-a6848651.html

Yep, I knew that article reminded me of something:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q0CkeuSqxk

RobD · February 2016

Plato_Says said:
QTWTAIN
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/briefing-what-is-the-eu-red-card-and-will-it-make-any-difference-at-all/

I had the rather spiffing idea of turning our parliament into an (at least) octocameral legislature. That way we'd get eight votes, since (I think) it is one per house, not parliament.

malcolmg · February 2016

RobD said:

richardDodd said:
Cameron is no ones fool and he will be aware that the proposals are dead in the water..He can reject them if he wishes ..but that would probably lead to a definite Brexit..
Which would be some pretty awesome leverage to use against the EU.... if only he would.

He is such a weak wobbly tube he will try to promote his "victory" instead.

Alistair · February 2016

I can't help but feel Cameron has 'another thing' to add to this deal.

JohnLilburne · February 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.
So you are saying that a school leaver unable to find a job should be denied any benefits for 4 years?

More to the point, whether you agree or disagree with a proposal, it cannot be right that the only reason we consider it is to satisfy the EU.

It's more that EU membership exposes our benefit laws as unjust. And you have to accept the world is as it is, not how you would like it to be.

malcolmg · February 2016

RobD said:

Plato_Says said:
QTWTAIN
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/briefing-what-is-the-eu-red-card-and-will-it-make-any-difference-at-all/
I had the rather spiffing idea of turning our parliament into an (at least) octocameral legislature. That way we'd get eight votes, since (I think) it is one per house, not parliament.

Bigger fence and just leave it as a zoo , no need for planning permission for change of use.

malcolmg · February 2016

Alistair said:
I can't help but feel Cameron has 'another thing' to add to this deal.

Pastie perhaps?

Innocent_Abroad · February 2016

RobD said:

Plato_Says said:
QTWTAIN
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/briefing-what-is-the-eu-red-card-and-will-it-make-any-difference-at-all/
I had the rather spiffing idea of turning our parliament into an (at least) octocameral legislature. That way we'd get eight votes, since (I think) it is one per house, not parliament.

At least one of the 8 houses should be reserved for people who have made more than 10,000 posts on pb.com. Who could possibly object to that?

RobD · February 2016

Innocent_Abroad said:

RobD said:

Plato_Says said:
QTWTAIN
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/briefing-what-is-the-eu-red-card-and-will-it-make-any-difference-at-all/
I had the rather spiffing idea of turning our parliament into an (at least) octocameral legislature. That way we'd get eight votes, since (I think) it is one per house, not parliament.
At least one of the 8 houses should be reserved for people who have made more than 10,000 posts on pb.com. Who could possibly object to that?

Only 7,991 to go and the ermine robes can be yours too!

Morris_Dancer · February 2016

Mr. Abroad, if ten thousand is to be the limit, it could be the Anabasis Chamber [with regular taxpayer-funded beach holidays].

NorfolkTilIDie · February 2016

SouthamObserver said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SouthamObserver said:
Today's headlines were written months ago, as was the "deal" that Dave has got and the "hard talking" that led to it. We are entering the final stage of a game that was devised a few years ago in order to prevent the Tories leaking votes to UKIP in last year's GE.

Anyone out there who is surprised at how all this has panned out should contact me. I have some magic beans available for relatively low cost that when planted and carefully cultivated sprout an endless supply of solid gold ingots.
If this deal was planned months ago, Osborne wouldn't have been out arguing the importance of protection for non-Euro states and the City, given we didn't get any.

It's a two way game. The other member states also have to get some visible wins.

In that case they won't have done it on an issue that is crucial to the independent government of this country. In a decade or so the Eurozone will be a united integrated bloc, and will be able to make laws for us without any checks on its power at all. How can the UK be an independent state when its laws can be unilaterally decided by another polity?

AlastairMeeks · February 2016

@NickPalmer has this about right. Of the hostile papers shown above, only the Mail was potentially winnable.

Are the papers going to lead on this day in, day out? The Express presumably will, the Sun presumably won't (its readers aren't going to be looking for cerebral politics on a daily basis as their lead story). The Mail? That's two days running. Again, that will worry the Remainers.

eek · February 2016

JohnLilburne said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.
So you are saying that a school leaver unable to find a job should be denied any benefits for 4 years?

More to the point, whether you agree or disagree with a proposal, it cannot be right that the only reason we consider it is to satisfy the EU.
It's more that EU membership exposes our benefit laws as unjust. And you have to accept the world is as it is, not how you would like it to be.

It doesn't expose our benefit laws as unjust. It exposes that our benefit laws are different to the rest of the EU with the consequence that others may be taking advantage of that difference...

RobD · February 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Abroad, if ten thousand is to be the limit, it could be the Anabasis Chamber [with regular taxpayer-funded beach holidays].

Our House will sit in the capitals of the sunnier Commonwealth territories, rotating as the seasons dictate.

Morris_Dancer · February 2016

Mr. D, equality and diversity demands we winter in Australia (or New Zealand) and summer in the Caribbean.

Morris_Dancer · February 2016

F1: Renault launch their car today, the first team to do so:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35346038

Just under three weeks until the first test (only two pre-season tests this year).

Slackbladder · February 2016

SouthamObserver said:

Plato_Says said:
This is quite sweet in a loony luvvies way

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-jeremy-corbyn-story-that-nobody-wanted-to-publish-a6848651.html

Yep, I knew that article reminded me of something:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q0CkeuSqxk

'Charlotte Church, Michael Rosen, Brian Eno, Ken Loach, Billy Bragg, Mark Steel, Jeremy Hardy, Francesca Martinez, Mark Serwotka, Shappi Khorsandi, Arthur Smith, Patrick Monahan, Janey Godley and many more'

Pretty much the loonest of the loony left there....

Moses_ · February 2016

I note over recent weeks there has been a huge argument and discussion on where the British Parliament should sit when the HOC are renovated which is expected to take 6 years and 8 billion?

I have a suggestion.

Vote remain, Close parliament and move it to Brussels saving all that time and money. That's effectively what you are doing anyway by voting remain. Meanwhile knock down BIg Ben turn the whole place into a theme park after all we already have a big merry go round on the other side of the river. Make further savings by turning parliament square into the 3rd Lego land and portcullis house into the latest acquisition of the Premier inn chain.

Sorted!

Plato_Says · February 2016

Poetry by Mark Serwotka, awesomeness.

That the chappy behind this initiative is called Crispin just adds to the gaiety of the nation.

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

Plato_Says said:
This is quite sweet in a loony luvvies way

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-jeremy-corbyn-story-that-nobody-wanted-to-publish-a6848651.html

Yep, I knew that article reminded me of something:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q0CkeuSqxk

'Charlotte Church, Michael Rosen, Brian Eno, Ken Loach, Billy Bragg, Mark Steel, Jeremy Hardy, Francesca Martinez, Mark Serwotka, Shappi Khorsandi, Arthur Smith, Patrick Monahan, Janey Godley and many more'

Pretty much the loonest of the loony left there....

Sandpit · February 2016

Alistair said:
I can't help but feel Cameron has 'another thing' to add to this deal.

He has just shown the hat to be empty, now he will tap it three times with his magic wand and produce the rabbit.

Morris_Dancer · February 2016

Mr. Slackbladder, alas, the clip cuts off the lines:

Neil: Can you kill yourself with laxative pills?
Vivien: I don't know, Neil, but I want to find out.

runnymede · February 2016

'How can the UK be an independent state when its laws can be unilaterally decided by another polity'

It isn't really now, and it won't be then. But the Foreign Office will still be telling us we would lose 'influence' if we left.

Casino_Royale · February 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
@NickPalmer has this about right. Of the hostile papers shown above, only the Mail was potentially winnable.

Are the papers going to lead on this day in, day out? The Express presumably will, the Sun presumably won't (its readers aren't going to be looking for cerebral politics on a daily basis as their lead story). The Mail? That's two days running. Again, that will worry the Remainers.

Nice to see you off the fence at last.

I think the Sun is the one that could have been a winner for Dave. The Mail might have given a begrudging endorsement too.

Remain will probably win but beware condescension and hubris.

RobD · February 2016

Moses_ said:
I note over recent weeks there has been a huge argument and discussion on where the British Parliament should sit when the HOC are renovated which is expected to take 6 years and 8 billion?

I have a suggestion.

Vote remain, Close parliament and move it to Brussels saving all that time and money. That's effectively what you are doing anyway by voting remain. Meanwhile knock down BIg Ben turn the whole place into a theme park after all we already have a big merry go round on the other side of the river. Make further savings by turning parliament square into the 3rd Lego land and portcullis house into the latest acquisition of the Premier inn chain.

Sorted!

I've said in the past we should just have it in Strasbourg, since that chamber is not used for the vast majority of the year.

Politics aside, I think Parliament is a wonderful building, and I don't object to the money spent keeping it standing.

HYUFD · February 2016

The right-wing press will be against Cameron during EU ref but he will have the backing of the Guardian, the Independent and the Mirror as well as the Financial Times and the BBC

Casino_Royale · February 2016

malcolmg said:

Alistair said:
I can't help but feel Cameron has 'another thing' to add to this deal.
Pastie perhaps?

Can't deny it: you're on form this morning. I've been chuckling on my train!

Plato_Says · February 2016

My problem with this from a PR perspective is that the narrative is set and running away from him.

If he gets something extra, it comes in the context of a very negative background. Much better to announce all at once if your offer is pretty poor.

Sandpit said:

Alistair said:
I can't help but feel Cameron has 'another thing' to add to this deal.
He has just shown the hat to be empty, now he will tap it three times with his magic wand and produce the rabbit.

blackburn63 · February 2016

Love or hate the Sun that is a fantastic front page.

MS mentions PMQs and this interests me, Corbyn has the opportunity to nail Cameron today but the Labour EU position probably prevents it. Its said that Corbyn isn't pro EU although reports aren't clear, he could make real headway here if he went on the attack.

What a strange world we live in, the Mail hammering Cameron, the Mirror appeasing him. Tells me all I need to know and what I've been saying for ages.

HYUFD · February 2016

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.
Absolutely. We're practically the only EU country without a contributory element.

Agree Ireland is the only other exception, indeed Ireland, Australia and New Zealand are the only other nations in the developed world who lack a contributory element to benefits. Although we do have contributory JSA for six months if you have paid enough NI

AlastairMeeks · February 2016

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:
@NickPalmer has this about right. Of the hostile papers shown above, only the Mail was potentially winnable.

Are the papers going to lead on this day in, day out? The Express presumably will, the Sun presumably won't (its readers aren't going to be looking for cerebral politics on a daily basis as their lead story). The Mail? That's two days running. Again, that will worry the Remainers.
Nice to see you off the fence at last.

I think the Sun is the one that could have been a winner for Dave. The Mail might have given a begrudging endorsement too.

Remain will probably win but beware condescension and hubris.

I'm still very firmly on the fence. If this is it for the renegotiation, it's pretty unimpressive. I'm of the school that if the EU can't make a decent offer to Britain now, it illustrates its dysfunction.

The ravings of the Leave side do not attract me either though. As a Leaver, I hope you want to give some of your fellow supporters a hard slap. The EU is not populated by monsters.

AlastairMeeks · February 2016

blackburn63 said:
Love or hate the Sun that is a fantastic front page.

MS mentions PMQs and this interests me, Corbyn has the opportunity to nail Cameron today but the Labour EU position probably prevents it. Its said that Corbyn isn't pro EU although reports aren't clear, he could make real headway here if he went on the attack.

What a strange world we live in, the Mail hammering Cameron, the Mirror appeasing him. Tells me all I need to know and what I've been saying for ages.

The Sun's front page makes no sense. Unless you see the EU like Nazi Germany.

not_on_fire · February 2016

Plato_Says said:
I'm still digesting how rubbish the Remain deal is. As a Leaver, I'm pleased as punch - but golly what a shocker for those wanting to Remain and getting this dished up.

Those front-pages are appalling. Perhaps when the dust settles, we'll find some nuggets in the small print - but I seriously doubt it. The EU have conceded barely an inch.

Glad I'm not in Number 10 this morning.

Not necessarily. Bear in mind there is a fair chunk of Remain support that didn't see the need for a renegotiation in the first place

Alanbrooke · February 2016

No real surprise

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136460/George-Osborne-will-not-balance-books-by-end-of-decade-warns-think-tank.html

rottenborough · February 2016

HYUFD said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:
On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.
Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.
I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.
Absolutely. We're practically the only EU country without a contributory element.
Agree Ireland is the only other exception, indeed Ireland, Australia and New Zealand are the only other nations in the developed world who lack a contributory element to benefits. Although we do have contributory JSA for six months if you have paid enough NI

There is also contributory ESA if you get ill. You get this whatever your income, if you have paid a certain level of NI in previous two tax years. If you haven't paid this, for whatever reason, then ESA is a means-tested, income-related benefit.

RobD · February 2016

Alanbrooke said:

No real surprise

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136460/George-Osborne-will-not-balance-books-by-end-of-decade-warns-think-tank.html

It'll probably be close. I hope we have a very small surplus by 2020.

rottenborough · February 2016

blackburn63 said:
Love or hate the Sun that is a fantastic front page.

MS mentions PMQs and this interests me, Corbyn has the opportunity to nail Cameron today but the Labour EU position probably prevents it. Its said that Corbyn isn't pro EU although reports aren't clear, he could make real headway here if he went on the attack.

What a strange world we live in, the Mail hammering Cameron, the Mirror appeasing him. Tells me all I need to know and what I've been saying for ages.

Unfortunately for Corbyn, Gary from Northampton will have written in about the high cost of stamps.

Morris_Dancer · February 2016

Mr. Meeks, people know Dad's Army is a silly programme and the reference to it has that same air of knowing daftness, whilst still making a sound point.

AlastairMeeks · February 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Meeks, people know Dad's Army is a silly programme and the reference to it has that same air of knowing daftness, whilst still making a sound point.

The sound point being that the EU is like Nazi Germany?

Alanbrooke · February 2016

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

No real surprise

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136460/George-Osborne-will-not-balance-books-by-end-of-decade-warns-think-tank.html
It'll probably be close. I hope we have a very small surplus by 2020.

Hope triumphs over experience :-)

JohnO · February 2016

blackburn63 said:
Love or hate the Sun that is a fantastic front page.

MS mentions PMQs and this interests me, Corbyn has the opportunity to nail Cameron today but the Labour EU position probably prevents it. Its said that Corbyn isn't pro EU although reports aren't clear, he could make real headway here if he went on the attack.

What a strange world we live in, the Mail hammering Cameron, the Mirror appeasing him. Tells me all I need to know and what I've been saying for ages.

PMQs won't be that interesting but Cameron's statement at 12.30 will most assuredly be: how he responds to the hostility of a large number of his own backbenches and whether or not he conveys a sense that this is the final deal (or scope for substantive improvement at the summit) will be hugely important.

Morris_Dancer · February 2016

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

RobD · February 2016

Alanbrooke said:

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

No real surprise

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136460/George-Osborne-will-not-balance-books-by-end-of-decade-warns-think-tank.html
It'll probably be close. I hope we have a very small surplus by 2020.
Hope triumphs over experience :-)

and when has a PB Tory ever been wrong?

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