politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rubio moves to odds-on overall favourite after strong perfo

First, unlike Trump

Good Rubio and Bernie showings tonight.

tpfkar said:

Not convinced Rubio is having as great a night as some are saying - 3rd is 3rd. Cruz (who's been anti ethanol subsidies) winning is big for him. Can he fight the establishment all the way?

Clinton will be relieved to win, if she does, but no momentum for her from this.

I've never seen such vomit inducing coverage as CBSN was doing on him tonight.

RodCrosby said:

MTimT said:

tpfkar said:

Not convinced Rubio is having as great a night as some are saying - 3rd is 3rd.

This is a long campaign. Coming a strong third in the first leg with proportional allocation of delegates is like being 50m behind the leader after the first half mile in a marathon.

Looks like 7,7,6,3,1,1,1,1 in terms of delegates.

Exactly. Rubio should feel bad because he is one delegate behind Cruz and Trump? Ridiculous.

The logic behind a Bloomberg run has just gone up in smoke.

It's pretty unlikely sanders will beat Hillary
Trump is severely wounded.
Cruz is beatable by Rubio.

Rubio/Hillary now looks quite likely.

Unless Bloomberg knows something about the Hillary/FBI stuff?

Sandpit said:

So who is going to drop out now? O'Malley is toast surely, and half a dozen of the republicans could do a lot worse than to endorse Rubio now he has the 'big mo' going into NH next week?

O'Malley and Huckabee dropped out officially tonight. Carson had to deny that he was.

RodCrosby said:

MTimT said:

RodCrosby said:

MTimT said:

tpfkar said:

Not convinced Rubio is having as great a night as some are saying - 3rd is 3rd.

This is a long campaign. Coming a strong third in the first leg with proportional allocation of delegates is like being 50m behind the leader after the first half mile in a marathon.

Looks like 7,7,6,3,1,1,1,1 in terms of delegates.

Exactly. Rubio should feel bad because he is one delegate behind Cruz and Trump? Ridiculous.

Cruz was between 150-300 votes from getting an eighth delegate and a clear win.

NYT is currently showing 8, 7, 6 with 98% reporting. For the Dems, an astonishingly close 49.9% to 49.6% with 94% reporting.

Dadge said:

Makes me smile when the person coming third is called "the real winner".

Lib Dems Winning Here

Remind me: who was it who said that the best bet was on the Trump-Rubio spread???

RodCrosby said:

MTimT said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to drop out now? O'Malley is toast surely, and half a dozen of the republicans could do a lot worse than to endorse Rubio now he has the 'big mo' going into NH next week?

O'Malley and Huckabee dropped out officially tonight. Carson had to deny that he was.

Poor old Santorum

Iowa 2012, 30,000 votes & first
Iowa 2016, 1,800 votes & last...

Technically, isn't Gilmore last? 12 votes.

RodCrosby said:

MTimT said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to drop out now? O'Malley is toast surely, and half a dozen of the republicans could do a lot worse than to endorse Rubio now he has the 'big mo' going into NH next week?

O'Malley and Huckabee dropped out officially tonight. Carson had to deny that he was.

Poor old Santorum

Iowa 2012, 30,000 votes & first
Iowa 2016, 1,800 votes & last...

Interesting, Santorum and Huckabee appeared on stage with Trump tonight. But the 2012 Santorum precincts split between Cruz and Trump, with Cruz taking more of them.

RodCrosby said:

MTimT said:

RodCrosby said:

MTimT said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to drop out now? O'Malley is toast surely, and half a dozen of the republicans could do a lot worse than to endorse Rubio now he has the 'big mo' going into NH next week?

O'Malley and Huckabee dropped out officially tonight. Carson had to deny that he was.

Poor old Santorum

Iowa 2012, 30,000 votes & first
Iowa 2016, 1,800 votes & last...

Technically, isn't Gilmore last? 12 votes.

Who?

Former Governor of VA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Gilmore

RodCrosby said:

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, I think Trump probably lost out badly because of the nature of the caucuses. His supporters were not natural caucus goers, and his ground game - corralling supporters, getting them to the polls, and then persuading people to vote at the actual events - was weak. Those problems do not exist in any of the next few states, and Trump could well bounce back strongly. Against that, Donald Trump has banged on, and on, and on, about being a "winner". The "winner" mantle is shaky tonight.

Looking forward to New Hampshire, the big question is: how much of the non-Trump, non-Cruz support accrues to Rubio? My guess is quite a bit, but not enough to get Rubio over the line. Trump 35, Rubio 25 I'd reckon, but it could be that Rubio has "the big mo", in which case, a win in New Hampshire sets him up for a canter to the Presidency.

Finally, Rubio has been lucky up until this point. Trump has beaten up on Cruz. He'll be the one now in the firing line. It will be interesting to see what comes out.

I thought the object of the exercise was not to win the Iowa caucus, since the winner seldom becomes the final nominee...

I struggle to see how Cruz becomes nominee from here. He won't win in any of the next few states, and Rubio is probably conservative enough to leach support from him.

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, I think Trump probably lost out badly because of the nature of the caucuses. His supporters were not natural caucus goers, and his ground game - corralling supporters, getting them to the polls, and then persuading people to vote at the actual events - was weak. Those problems do not exist in any of the next few states, and Trump could well bounce back strongly. Against that, Donald Trump has banged on, and on, and on, about being a "winner". The "winner" mantle is shaky tonight.

Looking forward to New Hampshire, the big question is: how much of the non-Trump, non-Cruz support accrues to Rubio? My guess is quite a bit, but not enough to get Rubio over the line. Trump 35, Rubio 25 I'd reckon, but it could be that Rubio has "the big mo", in which case, a win in New Hampshire sets him up for a canter to the Presidency.

Finally, Rubio has been lucky up until this point. Trump has beaten up on Cruz. He'll be the one now in the firing line. It will be interesting to see what comes out.

Kasich is a more natural fit for NH than Rubio, but I can see Rubio mopping up the Bush, Christie and Fiorina votes.

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, I think Trump probably lost out badly because of the nature of the caucuses. His supporters were not natural caucus goers, and his ground game - corralling supporters, getting them to the polls, and then persuading people to vote at the actual events - was weak. Those problems do not exist in any of the next few states, and Trump could well bounce back strongly. Against that, Donald Trump has banged on, and on, and on, about being a "winner". The "winner" mantle is shaky tonight.

Looking forward to New Hampshire, the big question is: how much of the non-Trump, non-Cruz support accrues to Rubio? My guess is quite a bit, but not enough to get Rubio over the line. Trump 35, Rubio 25 I'd reckon, but it could be that Rubio has "the big mo", in which case, a win in New Hampshire sets him up for a canter to the Presidency.

Finally, Rubio has been lucky up until this point. Trump has beaten up on Cruz. He'll be the one now in the firing line. It will be interesting to see what comes out.

Kasich is a more natural fit for NH than Rubio, but I can see Rubio mopping up the Bush, Christie and Fiorina votes.

Kasich needs to come second in New Hampshire to stay in the game. I doubt he can do it, but it's possible.

It is possible, with NH being an open primary, there has already been some evidence that many Dems will be voting in the GOP primary for Kasich.

***** BETTING POST *****

Following the much anticipated appointment of Pep Guardiola as the next manager at Manchester City, their immediate neighbours must be becoming very anxious as regards who should take over at Old Trafford after the problems encountered firstly with David Moyes and more recently with Louis van Gaal.
At present just four bookies are offering a market on who will be the next Manchester United manager and although their lists of potential candidates are all long, all have Jose Mourinho as the odds-on favorite.
Personally, I feel he is too high a risk and that were he indeed "the favoured one" he would already be in place by now.
Leaving Jose to one side, there are perhaps only a handful of other credible candidates, chief amongst these in many people's opinion is long term servant and current assistant manager Ryan Giggs but I seriously wonder whether with so much at risk the United Board would choose someone with such limited top level experience.
Instead, I believe they are more likely to go for someone with proven managerial ability as well as successful experience of the English Premier League which seriously narrows down the field.
For my money, one candidate who stands out from the crowd is ....... drum roll ...... Mauricio Pochettino the current Spurs manager and formerly boss at Southampton.
The really good news is that while Bet Victor has him on offer at 14/1 and both SkyBet and Corals are slightly more generous at 16/1, those nice people at bwin have him priced up at a humongous 100/1 no less! The bad news however is that they would only allow me to stake 79p. Still, the prospect of a £79 profit is better than the proverbial poke in the eye.
I would normally add the warning DYOR at this stage, but for 79p's worth perhaps that is unnecessary on this occasion.

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, I think Trump probably lost out badly because of the nature of the caucuses. His supporters were not natural caucus goers, and his ground game - corralling supporters, getting them to the polls, and then persuading people to vote at the actual events - was weak. Those problems do not exist in any of the next few states, and Trump could well bounce back strongly. Against that, Donald Trump has banged on, and on, and on, about being a "winner". The "winner" mantle is shaky tonight.

Looking forward to New Hampshire, the big question is: how much of the non-Trump, non-Cruz support accrues to Rubio? My guess is quite a bit, but not enough to get Rubio over the line. Trump 35, Rubio 25 I'd reckon, but it could be that Rubio has "the big mo", in which case, a win in New Hampshire sets him up for a canter to the Presidency.

Finally, Rubio has been lucky up until this point. Trump has beaten up on Cruz. He'll be the one now in the firing line. It will be interesting to see what comes out.

Rubio got particularly lucky because Trump's attacks on Cruz probably dumped 5% (maybe ex-Carson?) straight into his pot. I agree it'll be interesting to see how he copes with the spotlight on him.

Excellent result for Rubio. That 20/1 bet on him winning Iowa last night wasn't a bad one!

Market has massively overreacted though, with Trump out again to 3/1.

It seems punters were looking for an excuse not to back Trump, and now they have one.

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent result for Rubio. That 20/1 bet on him winning Iowa last night wasn't a bad one!

Market has massively overreacted though, with Trump out again to 3/1.

It seems punters were looking for an excuse not to back Trump, and now they have one.

@TSE will be happy, he needs to back Trump now to square his book. Hope the price holds at 3/1 until he gets back, ironically from the USA where one is not allowed to bet on the election!

david_herdson said:

MTimT said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, I think Trump probably lost out badly because of the nature of the caucuses. His supporters were not natural caucus goers, and his ground game - corralling supporters, getting them to the polls, and then persuading people to vote at the actual events - was weak. Those problems do not exist in any of the next few states, and Trump could well bounce back strongly. Against that, Donald Trump has banged on, and on, and on, about being a "winner". The "winner" mantle is shaky tonight.

Looking forward to New Hampshire, the big question is: how much of the non-Trump, non-Cruz support accrues to Rubio? My guess is quite a bit, but not enough to get Rubio over the line. Trump 35, Rubio 25 I'd reckon, but it could be that Rubio has "the big mo", in which case, a win in New Hampshire sets him up for a canter to the Presidency.

Finally, Rubio has been lucky up until this point. Trump has beaten up on Cruz. He'll be the one now in the firing line. It will be interesting to see what comes out.

Kasich is a more natural fit for NH than Rubio, but I can see Rubio mopping up the Bush, Christie and Fiorina votes.

Kasich needs to come second in New Hampshire to stay in the game. I doubt he can do it, but it's possible.

It is possible, with NH being an open primary, there has already been some evidence that many Dems will be voting in the GOP primary for Kasich.

Won't that be good for Sanders, if so?

Can they vote twice or just once?

This is a very bad result for HRC. I thought she would win comfortably because Sanders' supporters tend to be people who don't vote. But it looks as though either they turned out anyway or her own supporters are equally apathetic. Neither scenario is encouraging for her.

BBC talking about Trump's 'I'm a winner' pitch being punctured by his defeat - but Clinton has been trying to make her nomination look inevitable too and that's badly shaken this morning.

How much was each Jeb vote

AlastairMeeks said:

Wouldn't it be easier if the voting part of the process were eliminated?

Especially it it ruins your book.

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, Cameron likely to get a claimable "red card" deal. Legislation stopped if 55% of parliaments opposed - a chamber of parliament gets one vote, so HoL and HoC would get two votes:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35467479

In practice this means ~16 EU member states would have to join forces, but given there are only 9 non-eurozone member states, it'd require 7 eurozone members to tango with them to exercise it.

So I'm not sure how this protects non-eurozone countries from the eurozone acting as a bloc.

Can we change to an octocameral legislature, that way we'd get 8 votes? Could divide the HoL into the House of Barons, House of Earls, House of Bishops....

(How is the system fair to countries with unicameral systems?)

Best story so far

Court News
Convicted terrorist who claimed he met with Jeremy Corbyn 'many times' cleared of possessing 'horse porn' videos https://t.co/YO7145VjEV

DecrepitJohnL said:

Iowa and New Hampshire (next week ) were always forecast to be Sanders' best states. Feel the Bern.

Plato_Says said:

I'm amazed at Sanders result. Hillary must be a trifle WTF there. I never associated Iowa with old hippy types

Ahead of places like Massachusetts and Vermont?! Well, I must admit I wouldn't have thought it.

AlastairMeeks said:

Plato_Says said:

Best story so far

Court News
Convicted terrorist who claimed he met with Jeremy Corbyn 'many times' cleared of possessing 'horse porn' videos https://t.co/YO7145VjEV

There's nothing wrong with unbridled passion.

Porn is a bit over the top though!

On topic, odds-on (evens with SkyBet) is nuts for Rubio. He didn't win Iowa and nor was he the 'moral winner' or whatever. He finished third. A good third, yes; a third with momentum coming out of the pack, yes; but still third.

What that third does is buy him credibility as a serious contender. After Trump and Cruz, the rest of the field now has one shot left, in NH. A failure there as well and they might as well pack up and go home. Kasich may not fail and could go on; it looks mighty tough for the rest.

But Rubio didn't beat Cruz. He was campaigning as a conservative candidate in Iowa. Perhaps in Iowa that makes sense and he'll cut his cloth accordingly elsewhere but it'll take some careful footwork to do so and not be accused of flip-flopping. Alternatively, if he sticks to contesting the conservative vote, that leaves him in second in that race and definitely lets Kasich into the race to mop up the centre.

Then there's Trump. Not a great night for the Donald but a very good one all the same. The split in the conservative vote works very well for him and makes it a good deal more likely that he'll maintain and deliver on his leads through to Super Tuesday.

And Cruz? Also a good night. Yes, he was leading in the polls so it wasn't too surprising but bagging a win is always valuable (literally, in terms of funding), and gives him a Launchpad going into NH where he was already at or near the head of the chasing pack. For him, beating Rubio again there has to be the paramount objective. If he can do that, the conservative vote ought to start consolidating round him. If not, the internecine battle on the right should let Trump through.

All the three main candidates come out with something to shout about but overall, Trump edges it.

As for the Democrats, Hillary just looks weaker than ever. One decent Republican candidate and she's toast. The problem for the GOP is that it'll be 2020 before they can find one.

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, Cameron likely to get a claimable "red card" deal. Legislation stopped if 55% of parliaments opposed - a chamber of parliament gets one vote, so HoL and HoC would get two votes:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35467479

In practice this means ~16 EU member states would have to join forces, but given there are only 9 non-eurozone member states, it'd require 7 eurozone members to tango with them to exercise it.

So I'm not sure how this protects non-eurozone countries from the eurozone acting as a bloc.

Can we change to an octocameral legislature, that way we'd get 8 votes? Could divide the HoL into the House of Barons, House of Earls, House of Bishops....

(How is the system fair to countries with unicameral systems?)

I suggest this is a quick fudge by some in the EU to appear to give Cameron what he wants. Something which can be quietly scrapped later. With everything else that is going on, many of them must be sick to death of his posturing.

That's because they are hypocrits, who regard their own posturing as something else, and some imply they blame people for bringing up awkward matters as though that is the cause of ampn issue rather than a symptom of a problem.

https://twitter.com/ninjaeconomics/status/694410245464944640

It sounds like the Establishment are desperate to talk up his result to me.

And using it to beat Trump with a stick. If Trump had won, it wouldn't have been by enough or in the right places blah blah. Classic wrong sort of votes.

david_herdson said:

On topic, odds-on (evens with SkyBet) is nuts for Rubio. He didn't win Iowa and nor was he the 'moral winner' or whatever. He finished third. A good third, yes; a third with momentum coming out of the pack, yes; but still third.

What that third does is buy him credibility as a serious contender. After Trump and Cruz, the rest of the field now has one shot left, in NH. A failure there as well and they might as well pack up and go home. Kasich may not fail and could go on; it looks mighty tough for the rest.

But Rubio didn't beat Cruz. He was campaigning as a conservative candidate in Iowa. Perhaps in Iowa that makes sense and he'll cut his cloth accordingly elsewhere but it'll take some careful footwork to do so and not be accused of flip-flopping. Alternatively, if he sticks to contesting the conservative vote, that leaves him in second in that race and definitely lets Kasich into the race to mop up the centre.

Then there's Trump. Not a great night for the Donald but a very good one all the same. The split in the conservative vote works very well for him and makes it a good deal more likely that he'll maintain and deliver on his leads through to Super Tuesday.

And Cruz? Also a good night. Yes, he was leading in the polls so it wasn't too surprising but bagging a win is always valuable (literally, in terms of funding), and gives him a Launchpad going into NH where he was already at or near the head of the chasing pack. For him, beating Rubio again there has to be the paramount objective. If he can do that, the conservative vote ought to start consolidating round him. If not, the internecine battle on the right should let Trump through.

All the three main candidates come out with something to shout about but overall, Trump edges it.

As for the Democrats, Hillary just looks weaker than ever. One decent Republican candidate and she's toast. The problem for the GOP is that it'll be 2020 before they can find one.

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Iowa and New Hampshire (next week ) were always forecast to be Sanders' best states. Feel the Bern.

Plato_Says said:

I'm amazed at Sanders result. Hillary must be a trifle WTF there. I never associated Iowa with old hippy types

Ahead of places like Massachusetts and Vermont?! Well, I must admit I wouldn't have thought it.

In the betting for New Hampshire, Sanders is 1/6 favourite, with Clinton 4/1 against. This equates roughly to Sanders having an 86% chance of winning, and Clinton a 20% chance (and it adds up to more than 100% because that is where SkyBet makes its profit).

So he might do well there? OK, that's fine. But I was surprised at the implication he'd do badly everywhere else. Maybe I just misread your post.

@bbclaurak: SNP leading charge to block referendum in June - unless Labour front bench joins in, ruled out for now, unlikely to make difference

Just on a personal level, I much prefer Rubio to Cruz.

One for @speedy

Matthew Goodwin
Here's a stat: 19 of 24 opinion polls since Christmas had Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz in #IowaCaucus

Wow! I had no idea Bernie Sanders was a Carly Rae Jepsen fan! https://t.co/p0FbUBkEB4

Plato_Says said:

One for @speedy

Matthew Goodwin
Here's a stat: 19 of 24 opinion polls since Christmas had Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz in #IowaCaucus

Yes, it's yet another triumph for the pollsters.

Nate Silver
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-is-the-hardest-state-to-poll/

It might be a genuine proposal but it doesn't help or protect the UK very much.

Exactly - in terms of improving the UK's position, meaningless

Casino_Royale said:

Plato_Says said:

One for @speedy

Matthew Goodwin
Here's a stat: 19 of 24 opinion polls since Christmas had Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz in #IowaCaucus

Also we were told Rubio only had one office in Iowa so wouldn't do well at all.

Trump is showing signs of a Farage type lazy base but Rubio is still too short.. For now.

We were also told Labour had the best ground war last May. We might be seeing the start of a change in the way campaigns are fought. (As well as the decline of endlessly triangulated clone candidates against whom the likes of Trump and Corbyn can seem attractive simply by saying anything at all.)

As I've said before (and I know it isn't going to happen), I wish Cameron would just say "I'm afraid it isn't enough", and say he'll campaign to leave.

'If you look at Cameron's Bloomberg speech, it was a positive basis for reform that would have benefitted the whole of the EU. Had they engaged with it, there'd be a better run Union now'

Well you are assuming that speech was a serious platform. Given the incredibly easy way all those proposals have been dropped, that's open to serious doubt.

But even if we do assume they were serious, despite those proposals being dumped and replaced by empty formulae, you and the other europhiles are desperate to stay in.

And all those cowboys.

flightpath01 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Plato_Says said:

Best story so far

Court News
Convicted terrorist who claimed he met with Jeremy Corbyn 'many times' cleared of possessing 'horse porn' videos https://t.co/YO7145VjEV

There's nothing wrong with unbridled passion.

Porn is a bit over the top though!

Plenty of whips, I presume.

You have the bit between the teeth I see.

HYUFD said:

There is no way Rubio is odds on GOP favourite, he polled third and came third. The real winner of the night is Cruz who is now Trump's main rival for the nomination. Unless Rubio beats Trump in New Hampshire or at least beats Cruz for second place he will be running for the bronze medal

You are a bloody fool ; I have been predicting for months that Rubio will not only become the nominee , but will CRUSH Hillary

It will not even dawn upon you that Rubio has won the presidency until he's in the White House with his feet upon the desk smoking a victory cigar ...get a clue Sherlock !

Rubio will now unify the establishment lane and steamroll to victory ; he will win NH and Nevada too .....this has been on the cards for months and would have been clear to anyone able to read between the lines

RUBIO WILL BE THE NEXT US PRESIDENT .....frame this comment for posterity

HYUFD said:

There is no way Rubio is odds on GOP favourite, he polled third and came third. The real winner of the night is Cruz who is now Trump's main rival for the nomination. Unless Rubio beats Trump in New Hampshire or at least beats Cruz for second place he will be running for the bronze medal

The plausible path to the nomination from here for Cruz is difficult.

If it had been 35% Cruz, 30% Trump, with Rubio on 15%, then he would have had a good shot. But not now. Unless he pulls it out the bag with a win in South Carolina, it's all over for him.

Trump, on the other hand, is not holed below the waterline. He should still win New Hampshire by a good margin. Likewise South Carolina on the 20th and Nevada on the 23rd. For this reason, you should be backing Trump because his price will surely come in from here.

Looking forward to Super Tuesday, it's likely that Cruz will have had three losses in a row. That being said, Cruz should play well in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee. But he'll need to win most of these, because these are the evangelical seats where he should poll best.

And what of Rubio: he needs to be a solid second in New Hampshire, and then - ideally - to overtake Cruz in Nevada and South Carolina. I think it is a fair bet that he does that.

So, I'd put Trump still at 50% for the nomination, with Rubio c. 40%, and with 10% the field (mostly Cruz!).

Camerons EU negotiations are now so watered down they are insipid and depend on getting permission from other EU states, no clawing back of powers to Britain at all, what a joke!

Surprisingly gracious concession speech by Trump, he did not do a Dean. Never write off The Donald, the media are writing him off but in New Hampshire he could be ' the comeback kid'

Oh no. Will look it up, thanx

Edit lololol

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Plato_Says said:

OT But so totally cool video

A Chinese artist created a ladder to heaven of 1,600 feet in height using fireworks in tribute to his grandmother. http://t.co/jJK12OdkA3

Plato,
Talking of videos. Did you ever see the 'Cooper loves ice cream' clip on You Tube?
I know that you're more of a cat person, but this has to be one of the funniest dog videos.
Only 43 seconds long but so worth watching to the end.