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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rubio moves to odds-on overall favourite after strong performance in Iowa
Marco Rubio – the real winner in Iowa beating all expectations & running Trump close for 2nd place pic.twitter.com/nUnG7enalh
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Clinton will be relieved to win, if she does, but no momentum for her from this.
It's pretty unlikely sanders will beat Hillary
Trump is severely wounded.
Cruz is beatable by Rubio.
Rubio/Hillary now looks quite likely.
Unless Bloomberg knows something about the Hillary/FBI stuff?
Also, it shows that in 2020 it might be a good idea, if you're a GOP candidate, not to bother announcing till after Iowa. Only three candidates have anything to show for all that money and effort so far.
The Dem figures would imply Bernie needs a 5% lead among the remaining 6%...
Iowa 2012, 30,000 votes & first
Iowa 2016, 1,800 votes & last...
Looking forward to New Hampshire, the big question is: how much of the non-Trump, non-Cruz support accrues to Rubio? My guess is quite a bit, but not enough to get Rubio over the line. Trump 35, Rubio 25 I'd reckon, but it could be that Rubio has "the big mo", in which case, a win in New Hampshire sets him up for a canter to the Presidency.
Finally, Rubio has been lucky up until this point. Trump has beaten up on Cruz. He'll be the one now in the firing line. It will be interesting to see what comes out.
Following the much anticipated appointment of Pep Guardiola as the next manager at Manchester City, their immediate neighbours must be becoming very anxious as regards who should take over at Old Trafford after the problems encountered firstly with David Moyes and more recently with Louis van Gaal.
At present just four bookies are offering a market on who will be the next Manchester United manager and although their lists of potential candidates are all long, all have Jose Mourinho as the odds-on favorite.
Personally, I feel he is too high a risk and that were he indeed "the favoured one" he would already be in place by now.
Leaving Jose to one side, there are perhaps only a handful of other credible candidates, chief amongst these in many people's opinion is long term servant and current assistant manager Ryan Giggs but I seriously wonder whether with so much at risk the United Board would choose someone with such limited top level experience.
Instead, I believe they are more likely to go for someone with proven managerial ability as well as successful experience of the English Premier League which seriously narrows down the field.
For my money, one candidate who stands out from the crowd is ....... drum roll ...... Mauricio Pochettino the current Spurs manager and formerly boss at Southampton.
The really good news is that while Bet Victor has him on offer at 14/1 and both SkyBet and Corals are slightly more generous at 16/1, those nice people at bwin have him priced up at a humongous 100/1 no less! The bad news however is that they would only allow me to stake 79p. Still, the prospect of a £79 profit is better than the proverbial poke in the eye.
I would normally add the warning DYOR at this stage, but for 79p's worth perhaps that is unnecessary on this occasion.
Market has massively overreacted though, with Trump out again to 3/1.
It seems punters were looking for an excuse not to back Trump, and now they have one.
SkyBet go 11/4, Laddies 5/2, Betfair 3/1, whereas Paddy Power offers a way more generous 6/1.
DYOR
This is a very bad result for HRC. I thought she would win comfortably because Sanders' supporters tend to be people who don't vote. But it looks as though either they turned out anyway or her own supporters are equally apathetic. Neither scenario is encouraging for her.
BBC talking about Trump's 'I'm a winner' pitch being punctured by his defeat - but Clinton has been trying to make her nomination look inevitable too and that's badly shaken this morning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35467479
In practice this means ~16 EU member states would have to join forces, but given there are only 9 non-eurozone member states, it'd require 7 eurozone members to tango with them to exercise it.
So I'm not sure how this protects non-eurozone countries from the eurozone acting as a bloc.
(How is the system fair to countries with unicameral systems?)
Court News
Convicted terrorist who claimed he met with Jeremy Corbyn 'many times' cleared of possessing 'horse porn' videos https://t.co/YO7145VjEV
Jihadis have to pass exams? Is this a spoof?
What that third does is buy him credibility as a serious contender. After Trump and Cruz, the rest of the field now has one shot left, in NH. A failure there as well and they might as well pack up and go home. Kasich may not fail and could go on; it looks mighty tough for the rest.
But Rubio didn't beat Cruz. He was campaigning as a conservative candidate in Iowa. Perhaps in Iowa that makes sense and he'll cut his cloth accordingly elsewhere but it'll take some careful footwork to do so and not be accused of flip-flopping. Alternatively, if he sticks to contesting the conservative vote, that leaves him in second in that race and definitely lets Kasich into the race to mop up the centre.
Then there's Trump. Not a great night for the Donald but a very good one all the same. The split in the conservative vote works very well for him and makes it a good deal more likely that he'll maintain and deliver on his leads through to Super Tuesday.
And Cruz? Also a good night. Yes, he was leading in the polls so it wasn't too surprising but bagging a win is always valuable (literally, in terms of funding), and gives him a Launchpad going into NH where he was already at or near the head of the chasing pack. For him, beating Rubio again there has to be the paramount objective. If he can do that, the conservative vote ought to start consolidating round him. If not, the internecine battle on the right should let Trump through.
All the three main candidates come out with something to shout about but overall, Trump edges it.
As for the Democrats, Hillary just looks weaker than ever. One decent Republican candidate and she's toast. The problem for the GOP is that it'll be 2020 before they can find one.
Clinton is vulnerable and no certainty.
Rubio might be the most likely man who mainstream GOP voters coalesce around.
Cruz is no more likely to win the nomination as he was before yesterday.
And using it to beat Trump with a stick. If Trump had won, it wouldn't have been by enough or in the right places blah blah. Classic wrong sort of votes.
No need to scrap something that is meaningless
If you look at Cameron's Bloomberg speech, it was a positive basis for reform that would have benefitted the whole of the EU. Had they engaged with it, there'd be a better run Union now, more capable of dealing with the migrant crisis (Cameron talked in his speech of greater powers for the Eurozone as a quid pro quo for protection of those not in it, but the same principle applies to Schengen). They didn't engage with it and now not only is the Union as badly run as ever but they risk losing an important member (and its cash) and seeing the whole project take two massive - possibly terminal - hits to its momentum.
Matthew Goodwin
Here's a stat: 19 of 24 opinion polls since Christmas had Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz in #IowaCaucus
Wow! I had no idea Bernie Sanders was a Carly Rae Jepsen fan! https://t.co/p0FbUBkEB4
Trump is showing signs of a Farage type lazy base but Rubio is still too short.. For now.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-is-the-hardest-state-to-poll/
Exactly - in terms of improving the UK's position, meaningless
99% in. Vote performances vs. final polling average:
Cruz +4
Trump -5
Rubio +6
#IowaCaucus
Well you are assuming that speech was a serious platform. Given the incredibly easy way all those proposals have been dropped, that's open to serious doubt.
But even if we do assume they were serious, despite those proposals being dumped and replaced by empty formulae, you and the other europhiles are desperate to stay in.
It will not even dawn upon you that Rubio has won the presidency until he's in the White House with his feet upon the desk smoking a victory cigar ...get a clue Sherlock !
A Chinese artist created a ladder to heaven of 1,600 feet in height using fireworks in tribute to his grandmother. http://t.co/jJK12OdkA3
RUBIO WILL BE THE NEXT US PRESIDENT .....frame this comment for posterity
Mr. Royale, quite. It's a bullshit deal. If we need (around) a third of the eurozone on our side then it does nothing to protect us from the eurozone's critical mass when it comes to voting weight.
Good for Rubio. Also, gives Mr. Eagles an opportunity to improve his book.
If it had been 35% Cruz, 30% Trump, with Rubio on 15%, then he would have had a good shot. But not now. Unless he pulls it out the bag with a win in South Carolina, it's all over for him.
Trump, on the other hand, is not holed below the waterline. He should still win New Hampshire by a good margin. Likewise South Carolina on the 20th and Nevada on the 23rd. For this reason, you should be backing Trump because his price will surely come in from here.
Looking forward to Super Tuesday, it's likely that Cruz will have had three losses in a row. That being said, Cruz should play well in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee. But he'll need to win most of these, because these are the evangelical seats where he should poll best.
And what of Rubio: he needs to be a solid second in New Hampshire, and then - ideally - to overtake Cruz in Nevada and South Carolina. I think it is a fair bet that he does that.
So, I'd put Trump still at 50% for the nomination, with Rubio c. 40%, and with 10% the field (mostly Cruz!).
Trump wins NH then SC and he should be back on course, Iowa is always an oddity and one of his weakest states.
Talking of videos. Did you ever see the 'Cooper loves ice cream' clip on You Tube?
I know that you're more of a cat person, but this has to be one of the funniest dog videos.
Only 43 seconds long but so worth watching to the end.
There were six different instances where a coin toss was used to determine the winner of a delegate in Iowa, and Hillary won all six. Wow.
Jeb spent $14,500,000 in Iowa and ended up w/ just 5,235 votes.
That's $2,770 spent PER VOTE in Iowa.
Jeb Bush, making those donors proud!
Edit lololol