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System · January 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A second EURef phone poll has REMAIN with huge lead

Updated table of latest #EURef polls including today's new phone surveys pic.twitter.com/0S0O3VPYAK

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TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Fascinating.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

ComRes also say poll finds 44% saying economy would do better staying in EU with 23% saying better out

stodge · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Fascinating.

No, not really. What the two polls have in common isn't what has changed but what hasn't. For all the huffing and puffing from both sides and all parties, essentially nothing has changed.

The parties are basically where they were last May within MoE and the phone polls continue to show REMAIN with a convincing lead.

So, what changes these dynamics ? The launch of the EU Referendum campaign itself or some other event or series of events which will drastically alter perceptions and opinions in a way which, for example, the migrant crisis hasn't so far.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Fascinating.
No, not really. What the two polls have in common isn't what has changed but what hasn't. For all the huffing and puffing from both sides and all parties, essentially nothing has changed.

The parties are basically where they were last May within MoE and the phone polls continue to show REMAIN with a convincing lead.

So, what changes these dynamics ? The launch of the EU Referendum campaign itself or some other event or series of events which will drastically alter perceptions and opinions in a way which, for example, the migrant crisis hasn't so far.

Fascinating refers to the mahoosive gap between the phone polls and the online polls.

Phone polls have it as an easy win for Remain, the online polls, neck and neck/Leave occasionally ahead.

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2016

There's going to be a similar Great British Polling Fiasco this year to what happened last year.

MarkHopkins · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Fascinating.
No, not really. What the two polls have in common isn't what has changed but what hasn't. For all the huffing and puffing from both sides and all parties, essentially nothing has changed.

The parties are basically where they were last May within MoE and the phone polls continue to show REMAIN with a convincing lead.

So, what changes these dynamics ? The launch of the EU Referendum campaign itself or some other event or series of events which will drastically alter perceptions and opinions in a way which, for example, the migrant crisis hasn't so far.
Fascinating refers to the mahoosive gap between the phone polls and the online polls.

Phone polls have it as an easy win for Remain, the online polls, neck and neck/Leave occasionally ahead.

People not wanting to sound like Kippers on the phone, but happy to say Leave if online?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Fascinating.
No, not really. What the two polls have in common isn't what has changed but what hasn't. For all the huffing and puffing from both sides and all parties, essentially nothing has changed.

The parties are basically where they were last May within MoE and the phone polls continue to show REMAIN with a convincing lead.

So, what changes these dynamics ? The launch of the EU Referendum campaign itself or some other event or series of events which will drastically alter perceptions and opinions in a way which, for example, the migrant crisis hasn't so far.
Fascinating refers to the mahoosive gap between the phone polls and the online polls.

Phone polls have it as an easy win for Remain, the online polls, neck and neck/Leave occasionally ahead.

People not wanting to sound like Kippers on the phone, but happy to say Leave if online?

I have theory which I will explain on Sunday.

foxinsoxuk · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Fascinating.
No, not really. What the two polls have in common isn't what has changed but what hasn't. For all the huffing and puffing from both sides and all parties, essentially nothing has changed.

The parties are basically where they were last May within MoE and the phone polls continue to show REMAIN with a convincing lead.

So, what changes these dynamics ? The launch of the EU Referendum campaign itself or some other event or series of events which will drastically alter perceptions and opinions in a way which, for example, the migrant crisis hasn't so far.
Fascinating refers to the mahoosive gap between the phone polls and the online polls.

Phone polls have it as an easy win for Remain, the online polls, neck and neck/Leave occasionally ahead.

If online and twitter were representative of real voters opinions then Salmond would be Prime Minister of an Independent Scotland.

isam · January 2016

Is that two polls today moving towards LEAVE?

david_herdson · January 2016

williamglenn said:

david_herdson said:

- May to August. Hillary has enough delegates to make a brokered convention. Biden becomes very viable.
Hillary surely wouldn't lift a finger to help Biden.

Elizabeth Warren would be my bet in those circumstances. She's actually the best placed to combine the Clinton and Sanders coalitions so in many ways the Democrats should be sorry she's not running already.

I'd agree with that but if she's out then she's out. Her delegates would be going to Philadelphia anyway but if she's withdrawn then they'd be going as unpledged. Sure, she might be able to advise but it wouldn't be conclusive.

I agree that Warren should have run. If she had, Hillary might be polling the kind of scores Jeb is on the other side. It's a lot harder for Warren to come in now. Biden is the natural unifying candidate if there's one needed. The risk with anyone else is that if, say, Warren were to throw her hat into the ring then an awful lot of others might well do so too and we could easily end up with an pre-war kind of convention lasting days and days with dozens of ballots, setting the Democrats back weeks in their campaign.

Alistair · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Fascinating.
No, not really. What the two polls have in common isn't what has changed but what hasn't. For all the huffing and puffing from both sides and all parties, essentially nothing has changed.

The parties are basically where they were last May within MoE and the phone polls continue to show REMAIN with a convincing lead.

So, what changes these dynamics ? The launch of the EU Referendum campaign itself or some other event or series of events which will drastically alter perceptions and opinions in a way which, for example, the migrant crisis hasn't so far.
Fascinating refers to the mahoosive gap between the phone polls and the online polls.

Phone polls have it as an easy win for Remain, the online polls, neck and neck/Leave occasionally ahead.

If you apply ALEURP then the phone polls and online polls produce the same figures.

Add DKs to Remain for online and Leave for phone.

AndyJS · January 2016

Both the EU poll and the voting intention figures look doubtful to me. The idea that Corbyn's Labour Party is within 5 points of the Tories seems like nonsense IMO.

AndyJS · January 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:
There's going to be a similar Great British Polling Fiasco this year to what happened last year.

Maybe we need a complete and total shutdown of opinion polling this year.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.

isam · January 2016

I'm betting Diane Abbott would be the best bird some PBers have shagged from what I've seen of them

DavidL · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%

A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.

tlg86 · January 2016

isam said:
Is that two polls today moving towards LEAVE?

The trend is your friend!

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.

This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.

DavidL · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.

The man brings his pals around to show off his naked girlfriend in his bed because she is black and that demonstrates how cool he is?

What an odious little creep.

Casino_Royale · January 2016

AndyJS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
There's going to be a similar Great British Polling Fiasco this year to what happened last year.
Maybe we need a complete and total shutdown of opinion polling this year.

Until we figure out what the hell is going on.

Theuniondivvie · January 2016

isam said:
I'm betting Diane Abbott would be the best bird some PBers have shagged from what I've seen of them

Harsh.

But...

Pulpstar · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.

It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.

NickPalmer · January 2016

We've had one thread full of comments on Jeremy and Diane's love life and appearance several decades ago. Could we maybe now leave that aspect of politics to the Mail?

HYUFD · January 2016

Cruz shifts negative ads from Trump to Rubio in Iowa

'Senator Ted Cruz, scrambling to put down a growing threat in Iowa from Senator Marco Rubio, is shifting nearly all of his negative advertising from Donald J. Trump to Mr. Rubio for the final three days of the caucuses.
Mr. Cruz intends to direct his firepower at his Senate colleague after days of seeing Mr. Rubio inch up both in public polling and his own private surveys, according to two advisers to Mr. Cruz who spoke on the condition of anonymity. After leading in the polls in Iowa for much of the last month, Mr. Cruz has slipped into second behind Mr. Trump in most public surveys.'
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/29/ted-cruzs-negative-ads-go-after-marco-rubio-rather-than-donald-trump/?_r=0

DavidL · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.

Don't believe that either. If Leave is even on 36 there is a hell of a lot of tories in there. That's 3x the voting intention of UKIP. Where did the other 24% come from? The tories is the obvious answer.

viewcode · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Fascinating.
No, not really. What the two polls have in common isn't what has changed but what hasn't. For all the huffing and puffing from both sides and all parties, essentially nothing has changed.

The parties are basically where they were last May within MoE and the phone polls continue to show REMAIN with a convincing lead.

So, what changes these dynamics ? The launch of the EU Referendum campaign itself or some other event or series of events which will drastically alter perceptions and opinions in a way which, for example, the migrant crisis hasn't so far.
Fascinating refers to the mahoosive gap between the phone polls and the online polls.

Phone polls have it as an easy win for Remain, the online polls, neck and neck/Leave occasionally ahead.

People not wanting to sound like Kippers on the phone, but happy to say Leave if online?
I have theory which I will explain on Sunday.

Is it a theory of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.

The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.

viewcode · January 2016

isam said:
I'm betting Diane Abbott would be the best bird some PBers have shagged from what I've seen of them

"bird"? "shagged"? We are Austin Powers now?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

NickPalmer said:
We've had one thread full of comments on Jeremy and Diane's love life and appearance several decades ago. Could we maybe now leave that aspect of politics to the Mail?

Is like Dave and the pig. Keeps people amused for a few days.

HYUFD · January 2016

Gravis Iowa

GOP
Trump 31
Cruz 27
Rubio 13

Dems
Clinton 53%
Sanders 42%
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/gravis-marketing-one-america-news-23629

Casino_Royale · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.

The odds on Remain 60-65% have now dropped from 8/1 to 5/1.

I got on at 8/1.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
Don't believe that either. If Leave is even on 36 there is a hell of a lot of tories in there. That's 3x the voting intention of UKIP. Where did the other 24% come from? The tories is the obvious answer.

Conservative voters are divided on this issue - around half (48%) say they would vote ‘remain’, while two in five (41%) say they would vote ‘leave’. A majority of Labour voters (76%) say they would vote to remain a member of the EU.

Pulpstar · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.

It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.

david_herdson · January 2016

HYUFD said:
Cruz shifts negative ads from Trump to Rubio in Iowa

'Senator Ted Cruz, scrambling to put down a growing threat in Iowa from Senator Marco Rubio, is shifting nearly all of his negative advertising from Donald J. Trump to Mr. Rubio for the final three days of the caucuses.
Mr. Cruz intends to direct his firepower at his Senate colleague after days of seeing Mr. Rubio inch up both in public polling and his own private surveys, according to two advisers to Mr. Cruz who spoke on the condition of anonymity. After leading in the polls in Iowa for much of the last month, Mr. Cruz has slipped into second behind Mr. Trump in most public surveys.'
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/29/ted-cruzs-negative-ads-go-after-marco-rubio-rather-than-donald-trump/?_r=0

Do the rest all *want* Trump to win?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.

It might be if people try and frame it as a defeat for Dave means he has to resign.

Chris_A · January 2016

Hurrah

isam · January 2016

viewcode said:

isam said:
I'm betting Diane Abbott would be the best bird some PBers have shagged from what I've seen of them
"bird"? "shagged"? We are Austin Powers now?

Ooh crikey... Nerd alert!

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2016

viewcode said:

isam said:
I'm betting Diane Abbott would be the best bird some PBers have shagged from what I've seen of them
"bird"? "shagged"? We are Austin Powers now?

Oh, behave!

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:
We've had one thread full of comments on Jeremy and Diane's love life and appearance several decades ago. Could we maybe now leave that aspect of politics to the Mail?
Is like Dave and the pig. Keeps people amused for a few days.

Could you imagine the left hoping this story is quietly dropped if it featured a Conservative leader. The genie is out of the bottle and will now enter folklore

isam · January 2016

Is Cameron serving a third term?

MarqueeMark · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.

Nobody comes out of that story with any credit. Jeremy. Diane. The left-wing friends.

The journalist.

And TSE, for bringing it to a wider audience....

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2016

isam said:
Is Cameron serving a third term?

Hope s but very unlikely

DavidL · January 2016

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:
Cruz shifts negative ads from Trump to Rubio in Iowa

'Senator Ted Cruz, scrambling to put down a growing threat in Iowa from Senator Marco Rubio, is shifting nearly all of his negative advertising from Donald J. Trump to Mr. Rubio for the final three days of the caucuses.
Mr. Cruz intends to direct his firepower at his Senate colleague after days of seeing Mr. Rubio inch up both in public polling and his own private surveys, according to two advisers to Mr. Cruz who spoke on the condition of anonymity. After leading in the polls in Iowa for much of the last month, Mr. Cruz has slipped into second behind Mr. Trump in most public surveys.'
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/29/ted-cruzs-negative-ads-go-after-marco-rubio-rather-than-donald-trump/?_r=0
Do the rest all *want* Trump to win?

The echoes of the Corbyn disaster where the others spent all their time worrying about each others second preferences before it was all over on the first round just go on and on.

Chris_A · January 2016

More health in the news today too

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35440422

And not much influenza or norovirus about at the moment. yet again the real problem is not the hours worked by the junior doctors but the complete lack of beds caused by the government's running down of social care.

rottenborough · January 2016

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:
Cruz shifts negative ads from Trump to Rubio in Iowa

'Senator Ted Cruz, scrambling to put down a growing threat in Iowa from Senator Marco Rubio, is shifting nearly all of his negative advertising from Donald J. Trump to Mr. Rubio for the final three days of the caucuses.
Mr. Cruz intends to direct his firepower at his Senate colleague after days of seeing Mr. Rubio inch up both in public polling and his own private surveys, according to two advisers to Mr. Cruz who spoke on the condition of anonymity. After leading in the polls in Iowa for much of the last month, Mr. Cruz has slipped into second behind Mr. Trump in most public surveys.'
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/29/ted-cruzs-negative-ads-go-after-marco-rubio-rather-than-donald-trump/?_r=0
Do the rest all *want* Trump to win?

The fight for the blessed 2nd place? Or does private polling show Trump is not the real enemy.

Pulpstar · January 2016

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:
Cruz shifts negative ads from Trump to Rubio in Iowa

'Senator Ted Cruz, scrambling to put down a growing threat in Iowa from Senator Marco Rubio, is shifting nearly all of his negative advertising from Donald J. Trump to Mr. Rubio for the final three days of the caucuses.
Mr. Cruz intends to direct his firepower at his Senate colleague after days of seeing Mr. Rubio inch up both in public polling and his own private surveys, according to two advisers to Mr. Cruz who spoke on the condition of anonymity. After leading in the polls in Iowa for much of the last month, Mr. Cruz has slipped into second behind Mr. Trump in most public surveys.'
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/29/ted-cruzs-negative-ads-go-after-marco-rubio-rather-than-donald-trump/?_r=0
Do the rest all *want* Trump to win?

They're all desperate to remain "best placed" to be the anti-Trump candidate.

Pulpstar · January 2016

isam said:
Is Cameron serving a third term?

Best not be.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:
We've had one thread full of comments on Jeremy and Diane's love life and appearance several decades ago. Could we maybe now leave that aspect of politics to the Mail?
Is like Dave and the pig. Keeps people amused for a few days.
Could you imagine the left hoping this story is quietly dropped if it featured a Conservative leader. The genie is out of the bottle and will now enter folklore

I did a thread on Dave and the pig because that's what most PBers and political journalists of all stripes were talking about.

isam · January 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

isam said:
Is Cameron serving a third term?
Hope s but very unlikely

Wouldn't really be a massive blow to Tories then if he resigned after losing the referendum then, in the unlikely event LEAVE wins, would it?

isam · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

isam said:
Is Cameron serving a third term?
Best not be.

Wouldn't really be a massive blow to Tories then if he resigned after losing the referendum then, in the unlikely event LEAVE wins, would it?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.
Nobody comes out of that story with any credit. Jeremy. Diane. The left-wing friends.

The journalist.

And TSE, for bringing it to a wider audience....

I'm flying to America this weekend. If you want to tip off Homeland Security so I am suitably punished...

Richard_Tyndall · January 2016

Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.

Pulpstar · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.
Nobody comes out of that story with any credit. Jeremy. Diane. The left-wing friends.

The journalist.

And TSE, for bringing it to a wider audience....
I'm flying to America this weekend. If you want to tip off Homeland Security so I am suitably punished...

Boston isn't so far from New Hampshire, you could do some polling out there.

watford30 · January 2016

NickPalmer said:
We've had one thread full of comments on Jeremy and Diane's love life and appearance several decades ago. Could we maybe now leave that aspect of politics to the Mail?

Were you one of the friends present who doesn't wish to be reminded of the event?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.

When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number

MP_SE · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.

I don't get why so many people are putting loyalty to the Conservative Party or Cameron ahead of what is best for their country. I would expect this sort of behaviour from little kids but grown adults is just weird.

MarqueeMark · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.
Nobody comes out of that story with any credit. Jeremy. Diane. The left-wing friends.

The journalist.

And TSE, for bringing it to a wider audience....
I'm flying to America this weekend. If you want to tip off Homeland Security so I am suitably punished...

Make the most of the States. You won't see it again for 8 years under President Trump....

Richard_Tyndall · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.
When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number

The only one of those I would answer is the 020 number.

isam · January 2016

X

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.
I don't get why so many people are putting loyalty to the Conservative Party or Cameron ahead of what is best for their country. I would expect this sort of behaviour from little kids but grown adults is just weird.

Dunno, if Farage came out for REMAIN I'd vote to stay in

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.
Nobody comes out of that story with any credit. Jeremy. Diane. The left-wing friends.

The journalist.

And TSE, for bringing it to a wider audience....
I'm flying to America this weekend. If you want to tip off Homeland Security so I am suitably punished...
Make the most of the States. You won't see it again for 8 years under President Trump....

That makes me sad on so many levels.

williamglenn · January 2016

david_herdson said:

I agree that Warren should have run. If she had, Hillary might be polling the kind of scores Jeb is on the other side. It's a lot harder for Warren to come in now.

Agreed. Some people are perhaps reading too much into Warrren's latest tweet from today:

Elizabeth Warren @SenWarren

The next president can honor the simple notion that nobody is above the law, but it will happen only if voters demand it.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2016

isam said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

isam said:
Is Cameron serving a third term?
Hope s but very unlikely
Wouldn't really be a massive blow to Tories then if he resigned after losing the referendum then, in the unlikely event LEAVE wins, would it?

I genuinely do not think he will call the referendum unless he is certain to win. In my opinion he should stall the negotiations and let the EU fall apart over the next 12 months, as it will, and then demand changes or switch sides to leave. The other big issue is the massive clash between sovereign nations sending back migrants, (at least 100,000 from Sweden and Finland) and the European Court of Human Rights. The Nation states have to win that one

Casino_Royale · January 2016

Two interesting things for me in this poll - sample size 1,006:

(1) Young Britons aged 18-24 are more likely to say they would vote ‘remain’ (74%) than their older counterparts aged 65+ (40%).

I note they down-weighted the over 45s and up-weighted the under 35s

(2) Q5. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, Plaid Cymru or another party?

Con - 26%
Lab - 30%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 9%
Green - 3%
SNP - 3%
Other - 3%
Refused - 7%
Don't know - 13%

Labour also have a strong lead in all age groups under 45, even on the weighted turnout figures. I'm talking 9+% and whopping leads with the under 35s.

(3) Sub-samples notwithstanding, Leave have a lead of 9% (at 49% - 40%) on the over 65s

It looks to me like it's oversampling Labour voters and upweighted the young again, but Remain would have a clear lead even discounting that.

And who turns out will be crucial. For me this poll points to a 57-58 Remain to 42-43 Leave result, not a landslide.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.
When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number
The only one of those I would answer is the 020 number.

I suspect you are not alone.

Richard_Tyndall · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.
When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number
The only one of those I would answer is the 020 number.
I suspect you are not alone.

Trouble us I have absolutely no idea of which way that sort of behaviour would sway the results.

Pulpstar · January 2016

Is your States visit business or pleasure btw ?

MarqueeMark · January 2016

Just realising I have never seen On Her Majesty's Secret Service before. Lazenby slapping Emma Peel about. Would have remembered that...

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Pulpstar said:
Is your States visit business or pleasure btw ?

Both. 2 days pleasure. 2 days work.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.
When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number
The only one of those I would answer is the 020 number.
I suspect you are not alone.
Trouble us I have absolutely no idea of which way that sort of behaviour would sway the results.

Nobody does. You can make plausible arguments for both sides

AndyJS · January 2016

MarqueeMark said:
Just realising I have never seen On Her Majesty's Secret Service before. Lazenby slapping Emma Peel about. Would have remembered that...

I still haven't seen it. Watching the China programme on BBC2 at the moment.

HYUFD · January 2016

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:
Cruz shifts negative ads from Trump to Rubio in Iowa

'Senator Ted Cruz, scrambling to put down a growing threat in Iowa from Senator Marco Rubio, is shifting nearly all of his negative advertising from Donald J. Trump to Mr. Rubio for the final three days of the caucuses.
Mr. Cruz intends to direct his firepower at his Senate colleague after days of seeing Mr. Rubio inch up both in public polling and his own private surveys, according to two advisers to Mr. Cruz who spoke on the condition of anonymity. After leading in the polls in Iowa for much of the last month, Mr. Cruz has slipped into second behind Mr. Trump in most public surveys.'
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/29/ted-cruzs-negative-ads-go-after-marco-rubio-rather-than-donald-trump/?_r=0
Do the rest all *want* Trump to win?

They are too busy fighting for the runner-up spot, leaving the Trump bandwagon rolling on

Casino_Royale · January 2016

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.
I don't get why so many people are putting loyalty to the Conservative Party or Cameron ahead of what is best for their country. I would expect this sort of behaviour from little kids but grown adults is just weird.

Why do you think grown adults don't behave like little kids?

I'm not convinced childishness, sensitivity, and petulance ever goes away with age, we just become better at masking it.

And more creative at rationalisation and cognitive dissonance.

Richard_Tyndall · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.
When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number

Interesting aside. Does that mean you have been phone surveyed by all three companies at some point? Apart from Yougov I have never been surveyed by any other company.

Casino_Royale · January 2016

MarqueeMark said:
Just realising I have never seen On Her Majesty's Secret Service before. Lazenby slapping Emma Peel about. Would have remembered that...

It's one of my favourite Bond films.

If you put aside Lazenby's slightly wooden acting, and the awful 40 minutes of dubbing of him as Sir Hilary Bray, it's fantastic.

Pulpstar · January 2016

Trump seems to have plateaued slightly.

But his position is good enough to do that.

Casino_Royale · January 2016

Pulpstar said:
Trump seems to have plateaued slightly.

But his position is good enough to do that.

Has he?

His price on Betfair has never been shorter.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Casino_Royale said:

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.
I don't get why so many people are putting loyalty to the Conservative Party or Cameron ahead of what is best for their country. I would expect this sort of behaviour from little kids but grown adults is just weird.
Why do you think grown adults don't behave like little kids?

I'm not convinced childishness, sensitivity, and petulance ever goes away with age, we just become better at masking it.

And more creative at rationalisation and creative cognitive dissonance.

Some of it is down to trust, some people aren't interested in politics in the way we are. They don't know the difference between EFTA and the EU, so they'll trust the word of someone they like/admire/trust such as Cameron.

We saw yesterday mentioning a policy is something Corbyn wants to do makes that policy less popular.

A popular politician can have the opposite effect.

viewcode · January 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

isam said:
I'm betting Diane Abbott would be the best bird some PBers have shagged from what I've seen of them
"bird"? "shagged"? We are Austin Powers now?
Oh, behave!

Shagadelic, baby, yeah!

Casino_Royale · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.
I don't get why so many people are putting loyalty to the Conservative Party or Cameron ahead of what is best for their country. I would expect this sort of behaviour from little kids but grown adults is just weird.
Why do you think grown adults don't behave like little kids?

I'm not convinced childishness, sensitivity, and petulance ever goes away with age, we just become better at masking it.

And more creative at rationalisation and creative cognitive dissonance.
Some of it is down to trust, some people aren't interested in politics in the way we are. They don't know the difference between EFTA and the EU, so they'll trust the word of someone they like/admire/trust such as Cameron.

We saw yesterday mentioning a policy is something Corbyn wants to do makes that policy less popular.

A popular politician can have the opposite effect.

Sorry, I was talking about Conservative "eurosceptic" ministers and MPs.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.
When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number
Interesting aside. Does that mean you have been phone surveyed by all three companies at some point? Apart from Yougov I have never been surveyed by any other company.

Yes been phone polled by all of them. I lived in the most phone polled constituency at the last election, and I was already on their contact list, so it made sense to ring me.

Richard_Tyndall · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.
I don't get why so many people are putting loyalty to the Conservative Party or Cameron ahead of what is best for their country. I would expect this sort of behaviour from little kids but grown adults is just weird.
Why do you think grown adults don't behave like little kids?

I'm not convinced childishness, sensitivity, and petulance ever goes away with age, we just become better at masking it.

And more creative at rationalisation and creative cognitive dissonance.
Some of it is down to trust, some people aren't interested in politics in the way we are. They don't know the difference between EFTA and the EU, so they'll trust the word of someone they like/admire/trust such as Cameron.

We saw yesterday mentioning a policy is something Corbyn wants to do makes that policy less popular.

A popular politician can have the opposite effect.

So we just need to keep emphasising how much Corbyn wants us to stay in the EU

YossariansChild · January 2016

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.
The man brings his pals around to show off his naked girlfriend in his bed because she is black and that demonstrates how cool he is?

"My nukes might pull out but I wont..."

TheScreamingEagles · January 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.
I don't get why so many people are putting loyalty to the Conservative Party or Cameron ahead of what is best for their country. I would expect this sort of behaviour from little kids but grown adults is just weird.
Why do you think grown adults don't behave like little kids?

I'm not convinced childishness, sensitivity, and petulance ever goes away with age, we just become better at masking it.

And more creative at rationalisation and creative cognitive dissonance.
Some of it is down to trust, some people aren't interested in politics in the way we are. They don't know the difference between EFTA and the EU, so they'll trust the word of someone they like/admire/trust such as Cameron.

We saw yesterday mentioning a policy is something Corbyn wants to do makes that policy less popular.

A popular politician can have the opposite effect.
So we just need to keep emphasising how much Corbyn wants us to stay in the EU

Yup.

flightpath01 · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes say when you apply their turnout filter, Remain's lead goes from 18% to 23%
A turnout filter favours Remain rather than Leave? Really? It seems to me that the Leave supporters are much more motivated (if somewhat ineptly led) and more likely to turn out. I would also have expected Leave to do better amongst older groups with higher turnout propensities than the young.

Seems inherently unlikely to me.
This poll I'm guessing has more Tories in favour of remaining than leaving, with Tories more likely to vote, is why the turnout filter favours remain.
It's a landslide if the Tory vote goes remain.
The secret weapon of the Tory party is loyalty.

I can't see the blue rinse voting for leave if Dave is advocating Remain and economic security.
It's not a vote about the Conservative party though, just as the AV referendum shouldn't have been about Nick Clegg, or the Indy Ref about Salmond.
I don't get why so many people are putting loyalty to the Conservative Party or Cameron ahead of what is best for their country. I would expect this sort of behaviour from little kids but grown adults is just weird.
Why do you think grown adults don't behave like little kids?

I'm not convinced childishness, sensitivity, and petulance ever goes away with age, we just become better at masking it.

And more creative at rationalisation and creative cognitive dissonance.
Some of it is down to trust, some people aren't interested in politics in the way we are. They don't know the difference between EFTA and the EU, so they'll trust the word of someone they like/admire/trust such as Cameron.

We saw yesterday mentioning a policy is something Corbyn wants to do makes that policy less popular.

A popular politician can have the opposite effect.
So we just need to keep emphasising how much Corbyn wants us to stay in the EU
Yup.

Except he's dubious

TGOHF · January 2016

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
FYI, ICYMI, and don't want to sleep tonight

Jeremy Corbyn “showed off” a naked Diane Abbott to impress his Left-wing friends when he was a young Labour activist, a new book has revealed.

The Labour leader invited fellow activists to his London flat where they were “shaken” to find Ms Abbott in his bed, one of his friends recalled

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12130795/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-showed-off-naked-Diane-Abbott-to-impress-Left-wing-friends.html

You can all thank me later.
Nobody comes out of that story with any credit. Jeremy. Diane. The left-wing friends.

The journalist.

And TSE, for bringing it to a wider audience....

Jezza auditioning for the Bullingdon club?

He's a beast - in life and in his politics.

flightpath01 · January 2016

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:
Just realising I have never seen On Her Majesty's Secret Service before. Lazenby slapping Emma Peel about. Would have remembered that...
It's one of my favourite Bond films.

If you put aside Lazenby's slightly wooden acting, and the awful 40 minutes of dubbing of him as Sir Hilary Bray, it's fantastic.

Would they have dubbed Connery I wonder?

flightpath01 · January 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.
When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number
Interesting aside. Does that mean you have been phone surveyed by all three companies at some point? Apart from Yougov I have never been surveyed by any other company.

Wow, what a typically representative sample these polling companies get. Whew, they must work really hard to get that.

RodCrosby · January 2016

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:
Just realising I have never seen On Her Majesty's Secret Service before. Lazenby slapping Emma Peel about. Would have remembered that...
It's one of my favourite Bond films.

If you put aside Lazenby's slightly wooden acting, and the awful 40 minutes of dubbing of him as Sir Hilary Bray, it's fantastic.

The guy who played Draco died last month. He was dubbed too.

Tykejohnno · January 2016

isam said:
I'm betting Diane Abbott would be the best bird some PBers have shagged from what I've seen of them

lol

NorfolkTilIDie · January 2016

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:
Cruz shifts negative ads from Trump to Rubio in Iowa

'Senator Ted Cruz, scrambling to put down a growing threat in Iowa from Senator Marco Rubio, is shifting nearly all of his negative advertising from Donald J. Trump to Mr. Rubio for the final three days of the caucuses.
Mr. Cruz intends to direct his firepower at his Senate colleague after days of seeing Mr. Rubio inch up both in public polling and his own private surveys, according to two advisers to Mr. Cruz who spoke on the condition of anonymity. After leading in the polls in Iowa for much of the last month, Mr. Cruz has slipped into second behind Mr. Trump in most public surveys.'
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/29/ted-cruzs-negative-ads-go-after-marco-rubio-rather-than-donald-trump/?_r=0
Do the rest all *want* Trump to win?

Cruz can live with second in Iowa as long as someone not Rubio wins New Hampshire. Cruz can then do well in South Carolina and sweep the board with the SEC primary.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · January 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. What sort of phone numbers do the Polling companies use? If it is any of the 0800 type numbers then there are swathes of people who will not answer them. Back when phones did not display numbers - as is still the case with many home phones - this would not have been an issue but every mobile now displays the number calling and personally I automatically ignore and then block any 0800 type numbers. I have no idea if this would make any difference one way or another bur here will certainly be a large portion of the population who are not being reached by phone polling if this us the case.
When ICM ring me, they call me from 0345 337 3183

Populus was withheld

Survation was an 020 number
Interesting aside. Does that mean you have been phone surveyed by all three companies at some point? Apart from Yougov I have never been surveyed by any other company.
Yes been phone polled by all of them. I lived in the most phone polled constituency at the last election, and I was already on their contact list, so it made sense to ring me.

I've never been polled by any of them and don't know anyone near me that has.

flightpath01 · January 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Fascinating.
No, not really. What the two polls have in common isn't what has changed but what hasn't. For all the huffing and puffing from both sides and all parties, essentially nothing has changed.

The parties are basically where they were last May within MoE and the phone polls continue to show REMAIN with a convincing lead.

So, what changes these dynamics ? The launch of the EU Referendum campaign itself or some other event or series of events which will drastically alter perceptions and opinions in a way which, for example, the migrant crisis hasn't so far.
Fascinating refers to the mahoosive gap between the phone polls and the online polls.

Phone polls have it as an easy win for Remain, the online polls, neck and neck/Leave occasionally ahead.
If online and twitter were representative of real voters opinions then Salmond would be Prime Minister of an Independent Scotland.

He would in fact be about to replace Ming the Merciless Emperor of Mongo as the supreme conquerer of the universe.

TGOHF · January 2016

isam said:
I'm betting Diane Abbott would be the best bird some PBers have shagged from what I've seen of them

I've done a 2 bagger but never a 3 like DA.

Pulpstar · January 2016

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Trump seems to have plateaued slightly.

But his position is good enough to do that.
Has he?

His price on Betfair has never been shorter.

I make his position almost as strong as Hilary with Cruz having most of the rest of the market. Rubio should be at Jeb's price.

Tim_B · January 2016

It's the Iowa Caucuses on Monday. TV has been explaining how it works - the Democratic Leader's Guide is over 50 pages.

In essence you meet in a Church Hall, someone's living room or basement, talk politics for a couple of hours or so, then decide who you support.

If you're at a democratic caucus, if you support Sanders stand here, Clinton stand there etc. Then they take a head count, fill out the sheet and call it in.

If you're at a republican caucus you still talk politics as at the dems caucus, but then you have a secret ballot, which is tallied and reported via a smart phone app, developed since the debacle of 4 years ago.

flightpath01 · January 2016

RodCrosby said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:
Just realising I have never seen On Her Majesty's Secret Service before. Lazenby slapping Emma Peel about. Would have remembered that...
It's one of my favourite Bond films.

If you put aside Lazenby's slightly wooden acting, and the awful 40 minutes of dubbing of him as Sir Hilary Bray, it's fantastic.
The guy who played Draco died last month. He was dubbed too.

No end of people were dubbed in Bond films. Ursula Andress for one.

Tim_B · January 2016

flightpath01 said:

RodCrosby said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:
Just realising I have never seen On Her Majesty's Secret Service before. Lazenby slapping Emma Peel about. Would have remembered that...
It's one of my favourite Bond films.

If you put aside Lazenby's slightly wooden acting, and the awful 40 minutes of dubbing of him as Sir Hilary Bray, it's fantastic.
The guy who played Draco died last month. He was dubbed too.
No end of people were dubbed in Bond films. Ursula Andress for one.

and Auric Goldfinger!

Pulpstar · January 2016

Tim_B said:
It's the Iowa Caucuses on Monday. TV has been explaining how it works - the Democratic Leader's Guide is over 50 pages.

In essence you meet in a Church Hall, someone's living room or basement, talk politics for a couple of hours or so, then decide who you support.

If you're at a democratic caucus, if you support Sanders stand here, Clinton stand there etc. Then they take a head count, fill out the sheet and call it in.

If you're at a republican caucus you still talk politics as at the dems caucus, but then you have a secret ballot, which is tallied and reported via a smart phone app, developed since the debacle of 4 years ago.

What time will the results be known by ?

Casino_Royale · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Trump seems to have plateaued slightly.

But his position is good enough to do that.
Has he?

His price on Betfair has never been shorter.
I make his position almost as strong as Hilary with Cruz having most of the rest of the market. Rubio should be at Jeb's price.

I've heavily laid Rubio, and am very exposed on Bush.

Green on everyone else, and very good on Trump, Cruz and Kasich.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A second EURef phone poll has REMAIN with huge lead

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