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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ips
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ipsos MORI lead drops 5% to 12%
Given the vast bulk of EURef polling has been from online surveys it’s great to see that Ipsos-MORI appears to now being doing a question for its monthly political monitor which, of course, is carried out by phone.
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Of my reflexes.
Which I wouldn't be shocked at on the day.
I'd tell a pollster Leave even if I were 100% for Remain. But then I'm one of the 25% satisfied with Corbyn.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win
So says an academic.
I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.
But, of course, just like with Switzerland and Norway we'll pay something for access to the single market. Say, making up numbers, it'll be 3.75bn.
That leaves the EU with a 3.75bn hole. Which is not very big in the general scheme of things; it's equivalent to a couple of non-working destroyers, for example.
With the opposition in complete disarray the next budget should be the most radical in a generation, thinking the unthinkable about what the State actually does. For some examples what does DCMS do that couldn't be 90% handed straight to the Lottery? Offering tax breaks for private health insurance would stimulate growth in both insurance and providers of healthcare, while reducing demand in the NHS. For a really big one, merge income tax and NI, throw hundreds of pages of complicated tax code in the bin and replace them with half a dozen, meaning that the average small businessman doesn't need lawyers and accountants just to fill in his tax return or run a simple payroll.
Excellent - It is now our patriotic duty to vote leave
Generally I'm being guided more by what the politicians are doing than by the polls - an approach that would have worked well last May with DC visiting Twickenham and EM visiting Warwickshire North.
Remain
Noooo Treaty of Rome
And I am, actually, now getting my coat...
"Poll showing support for LEAVE is good news for REMAIN"
the new
"UKIP achieving best ever result bad news for UKIP"
?
Still, one can hope, for the whole point of the EU, (Is it not?), is to approach problems communally.
How it plays in Scotland could be particularly interesting, could it be that the SNP subtly change tactics and encourage a Leave vote in pursuit of Indyref II?
http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/OECD-review-of-Scottish-education-206d.aspx
Overall, I think it is probably safe to say that education in Scotland is in a far better position than it is in England, epecially the refocusing on FE Colleges and away from using Universities as dumping grounds (no matter how that might let opponents create statistical lies).
I was crushingly disappointed by the Autumn statement. I console myself that the victory in May 2015 was a surprise to all concerned, and with more time to plan, more radical reform may come our way this year.
However, I'm not holding my breath; this government only looks good because the opposition is so appalling that I'm constantly having to consult Roget's for new epithets to apply.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/how-will-northern-ireland-vote-in-the-upcoming-eu-referendum-34176966.html
If this is anywhere near right, Remain will win by roughly 2:1 in Northern Ireland.
'Mr Khan outlined a detailed knowledge of London Jews' concerns – distancing himself from toxic former mayor Ken Livingstone, dropping names of his Jewish friends and backers, and explaining how his Muslim faith makes him aware of shared issues such as religious slaughter, circumcision and concerns about coroners and burial.'
'It is not hard to see through a politician's weak hand and Mr Goldsmith has not yet provided any developed thought on what exactly he would do for London's Jews. Is he poorly briefed? A bad media performer? Perhaps. But it really does not take much to trot out some well-rehearsed lines on areas of communal concern.'
'Charming, urbane, a safe pair of hands. All of this may be true of Mr Goldsmith, but when repeated probing reveals no depth of knowledge on key Jewish issues, should we not be concerned?
'...unless Mr Goldsmith gets his campaign into gear quickly, it will be the red flag flying over mayor HQ on the bank of the Thames'
http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/152843/whats-really-strange-khan-looks-a-better-bet
Is it because Ireland is in the Euro and EU ?
Makes absolutely no difference to me whether the UK leaves or stays, membership of the EU is a convenience with some economic benefits but not particularly ones that will ever impact on me (in truth it basically comes down to London remaining a big player in Financial Services).
In or Out, who cares. What does matter is getting the Second Referendum on the table as soon as possible and stop money draining from Scotland to Westminster. That's the only priority.
Murray has two breaks of serve in the fifth set and leads Raonic 3-0.
Perhaps, maybe, if you ask nicely, and the rest of us say OK. Worthless.
Vote Leave, ffs.
The number of people with "English Spoken as an Other Language" is likely to act regressively on the performance measures for literacy, and as these youngsters are disproportionately based in England it is bound to have an impact.
The university outcome is entirely predictable. There was never a realistic need in the jobs market for 50% to undertake a university education.
How many graduates does the UK economy really need?
Time to pop on the Tim Henman
MP4sBlu-RaysDVDsVHS tapes.Wish as hard as you like, but that's it for decades.
Vote LEAVE to start a serious negotiation between the UK and the EU where the UK then has leverage to change some substantive issues. The EU encourages second referendums after new negotiations.
Leave is leave.
The British government will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty immediately following a vote to Leave.
As I have been saying I don't think his job is getting any easier, probably the reverse in fact, so I am not optimistic that there will be much simplification soon.
ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
All that effort to get thumped by Djokovic. Again.
(a) Zac doesn't excite his base, and;
(b) London's demographics have moved even more heavily in Labour's favour, and it's ground zero of Corbynism.
He's on a massive roll.
Will there be more Fox debates planned by the way ?
Requested by Congress, this being the same Congress that had to be warned by the White House that the NSA was listening to them plotting with Israeli government to undermine the nuclear deal with Iran and that they should back off.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3297431/Hungarian-Prime-Minister-accuses-billionaire-investor-George-Soros-trying-undermine-Europe-supporting-refugees-travelling-Middle-East.html
One side seems to be destroying these countries in the middle east and encouraging the refugee flow here , the other opposing. I know which side I take. Personally I wish all the special interests, lobbies and agent of influence would be tackled so we can formulate our policies in our national interest.
Victoria Peckham
Lobby geniuses: am I right in thinking Britain has never had a teetotal Prime Minister?
Joe Murphy
@Dannythefink @VictoriaPeckham You mean the PM who only lasted 211 days in office? Kind of makes the point, doesn't it.
ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Marcher Lord
It's now past midday and Corbyn hasn't trended once today. This is now what passes as a 'good day' for Labour.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-is-shocking-vulgar-and-right-213572?o=0
He, in turn, has trashed several by name. Wounds have been inflicted that will not soon be forgiven or forgotten.
But while columns and magazines appear in print twice weekly, weekly, biweekly and monthly, millions listen to talk radio every hour of every day. And though websites might be updated daily, radio, more than print, is a medium that moves people.
Among the top talkers, Trump gets more than a fair hearing. Some of the talk shows with the largest audiences are sympathetic, others are supportive. And the Drudge Report, the daily newspaper of Middle America, tracks Trump’s every move.
In the media battle, then, the media elite are being swamped by Trump. And Trump is winning the political battle as well. According to almost every poll, state or national, Trump is ahead of all rivals, with his closest challenger trailing by 10 or more points. Among the populist and Tea Party right, Trump has lapped the field, and he is now competitive among Evangelicals.
http://buchanan.org/blog/the-civil-war-of-the-right-124676
Neoconservatism and liberal interventionism are top down impositions and have no support base amongst the American people, most aren't loons.
The GOP base are also fed up of having moderate nominees who lose, after McCain and Romney they want a red meat conservative, hence Trump and Cruz doing so well
What is true is the lamentable state of black acting in Hollywood. Look at all of the stand out performances from black actors in movies over the last few years, they are all British, clasically trained theatre actors. Black American actors have a very poor reputation AIUI and casting directors would prefer to hire a Black British actor for half the money and much less hassle.
Another issue is how quickly black actors in the US want to cash in, Cuba Gooding Jr was a good example of a failed career because he decided to cash in on his earlier good performances too quickly. He had early success with Boyz 'n the Hood, then followed it up with an Oscar winning performance in Jerry Maguire (completely outshining Tom Cruise in the process) and Men of Honor for which he received a lot of acclaim. After that he cashed in and decided to make dross like Rat Race and Norbit. He has never recovered from this poor decision making. This story applies to countless Black American actors and actresses who are far to quick to cash in on early success and ruin their career prospects. I very much doubt John Boyega will make those mistakes.
What is he doing - as a multi-millionaire actor/producer - to provide more opportunities?
It all feels like he is in a sulk for not being nominated.
There is an issue - but it is something that can only be addressed through telling a more diverse range of stories, not by setting quotas or making demands.
Sci-fi/Fantasy's barrier of entry to getting any sort of acclaim at the Oscars is alot higher than other types of move. The Dark Knight wasn't even nominated in 2008 !
Now Will Smith is planning on doing Suicide Squad and some Bad Boys sequels. These movies might be good or not so good. But they aren't the sort you do for an Oscar.
The most telling bit was the bit on DC. We're not so far away from that here.
But let’s pretend for a second this isn’t Washington. Let’s imagine it’s the capital of an African country, say Burkina Faso, and we are doing a study on corruption. Probably the first question we’d ask: How many government officials have close relatives who make a living by influencing government spending? A huge percentage of them? OK. Case closed. Ouagadougou is obviously a very corrupt city.
That’s how the rest of the country views D.C. Washington is probably the richest city in America because the people who live there have the closest proximity to power. That seems obvious to most voters. It’s less obvious to us, because everyone here is so cheerful and familiar, and we’re too close to it. Chairman so-and-so’s son-in-law lobbies the committee? That doesn’t seem corrupt. He’s such a good guy.
Diversity to some in this debate seems to have a very narrow definition
when I watched the star wars (enjoyed it immensely) I did contemplate that it is still likely impossible to cast the roles the other way round i.e. black woman takes main lead role, main lead male white character suffers panic attack during violence
what do you reckon?
But let’s pretend for a second this isn’t Washington. Let’s imagine it’s the capital of an African country, say Burkina Faso, and we are doing a study on corruption. Probably the first question we’d ask: How many government officials have close relatives who make a living by influencing government spending? A huge percentage of them? OK. Case closed. Ouagadougou is obviously a very corrupt city.
That’s how the rest of the country views D.C. Washington is probably the richest city in America because the people who live there have the closest proximity to power. That seems obvious to most voters. It’s less obvious to us, because everyone here is so cheerful and familiar, and we’re too close to it. Chairman so-and-so’s son-in-law lobbies the committee? That doesn’t seem corrupt. He’s such a good guy.
where did i read that D.Trumps foreign (not immigration) policy sounds a hell of a lot sounder than the neocons (poss. including obama)? [Not a fan of Trumpp, if that needs clarifying]
When was the last award to someone with significant Native American ancestry?
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2488496/board/?ref_=tt_bd_sm
Every time there is some good news (Sony) the Japanese government decides to undo it by making stupid decisions. Sharp should be allowed to go bankrupt and then asset stripped. They are a failure of a company and have refused to reform time and again. I remember there was a time when I was at Sony and there were rumours that the board were considering a tie up with Sharp in order to defend TV market share, it never amounted to anything, but I remember being very worried at the time that we would end up wasting money generated by SCE on propping up a failing Japanese business under the instruction of the government.
If INCJ buy Sharp outright then it will show that Japan has not moved into the real world and intend to waste public money on saving zero productivity jobs and innovations that the market has either deemed unnecessary or too expensive to be useful (IGZO is what INCJ are said to want to protect).
Negative interest rates are just a sop to the markets to make of for the complete and utter lack of reform of Japanese corporate culture by Abe. Sony is successful because they are operated like a foreign company and the most successful division has a very, very smart Englishman at the helm (Andrew House) who isn't afraid to cut failing parts of the business (including my job as it happened!) and invest in new sectors (VR) rather than just driving into the same wall a bit faster and hoping for a different result to the last 100 times like the rest of Japan's management.
I don't know what it is going to take for Japan to reform their corporate outlook. Abe just isn't making it happen and it's very frustrating for me to see having worked for a Japanese company for so long.
Yes they do - and there is a whole industry in the US based on perpetuating that problem and extracting as much attention and resources as possible by doing so.
We have it here as well.