politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ips

System · January 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ipsos MORI lead drops 5% to 12%

Given the vast bulk of EURef polling has been from online surveys it’s great to see that Ipsos-MORI appears to now being doing a question for its monthly political monitor which, of course, is carried out by phone.

Read the full story here

Toms · January 2016

Test.
Of my reflexes.

Pulpstar · January 2016

57 - 43 this phone poll hints at.

Which I wouldn't be shocked at on the day.

Tissue_Price · January 2016

"I was told by a senior diplomat from an EU country during the week that the tighter the referendum looks from a polling perspective the stronger the PM’s negotiating position."

I'd tell a pollster Leave even if I were 100% for Remain. But then I'm one of the 25% satisfied with Corbyn.

AlastairMeeks · January 2016

On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.

rcs1000 · January 2016

FPT:

weejonnie said:

SimonStClare said:

David_Evershed said:

Sean_F said:
That's still a fair-sized lead for Remain with MORI, albeit narrowing. 57-43%, excluding don't knows. I think the huge lead in June was definitely an outlier.
LEAVE's best argument is that we can only have a realistic negotiation over the EU from a position of strength where the population has already voted to leave in a referendum.

Once we have voted to leave, we can start negotiations again and tackle real issues like 50% of the EU budget being spent on the Common Agricultural Policy when agriculature is only 2% of Europe's GDP.
Never understood this line of argument – if we vote to leave, we leave. – At that point the EU would simply say the UK has no influence over EU policy or future changes to CAP etc.
Well it has £15 billion gross contributions to the EU funding (about 10%). It gets half back (and the EU are going to pull out all the stops with how much money the UK gets from the EU, when it is merely part of our own money being returned.)

Could the EU survive with losing 10% of its funding, when it is in such a state?

He who pays the piper calls the tune.

Yes, but it pays back half of that to the UK. So the rest of the EU has to find c. 7.5bn.

But, of course, just like with Switzerland and Norway we'll pay something for access to the single market. Say, making up numbers, it'll be 3.75bn.

That leaves the EU with a 3.75bn hole. Which is not very big in the general scheme of things; it's equivalent to a couple of non-working destroyers, for example.

Sandpit · January 2016

The more the EU is in the news, the closer the polls move towards Leave. One can understand why the PM wants the referendum yesterday.

rcs1000 · January 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.

Crucially, his analysis shows that if, as expected, David Cameron recommends a vote to stay in, it is likely to persuade voters to go in the opposite direction because of the length of time he has been prime minister.

DavidL · January 2016

Thanks to Dair for the OECD link on the previous thread.

Sandpit · January 2016

FPT

taffys said:
He has done his best to keep the cap on spending despite the huge bias to ever greater expenditure built in by that idiot Brown.

Really? whatever happened to bonfire of the quangos? Osborne likes his pet projects and spending on friends as much as his mentor Brown. His last budget illustrated that amply. Chote gave him 26 billion and he promptly spent it.

It's a little mean to characterise him as Brown, at least with Osborne the numbers are moving in the right direction, but it's true that he tries to make every decision with a party-political angle that needn't be there.

With the opposition in complete disarray the next budget should be the most radical in a generation, thinking the unthinkable about what the State actually does. For some examples what does DCMS do that couldn't be 90% handed straight to the Lottery? Offering tax breaks for private health insurance would stimulate growth in both insurance and providers of healthcare, while reducing demand in the NHS. For a really big one, merge income tax and NI, throw hundreds of pages of complicated tax code in the bin and replace them with half a dozen, meaning that the average small businessman doesn't need lawyers and accountants just to fill in his tax return or run a simple payroll.

SimonStClare · January 2016

'the tighter the referendum polling 'the stronger the PM’s negotiating position.'

Excellent - It is now our patriotic duty to vote leave

Tissue_Price · January 2016

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:
On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.
Crucially, his analysis shows that if, as expected, David Cameron recommends a vote to stay in, it is likely to persuade voters to go in the opposite direction because of the length of time he has been prime minister.

That's intriguing. Of course, in some part, this feels like a new government, even though there is a lot of continuity.

Generally I'm being guided more by what the politicians are doing than by the polls - an approach that would have worked well last May with DC visiting Twickenham and EM visiting Warwickshire North.

Pro_Rata · January 2016

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

richardDodd said:
As I have posted here on a number of occasions..I think the leave vote will be about 57%

richardDodd said:
As I have posted here on a number of occasions..I think the leave vote will be about 57%
With Scotland, Wales and Ireland solid in Remain and David Cameron's personal recommendation, if he does, for Remain I would reverse those figures, indeed it could be as high as 60-40 Remain
Wales is pretty much evenly divided. I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists in Northern Ireland will vote for Leave, albeit, still leaving Remain ahead by c.55-45% in eh Province.

Perhaps the leavers in Northern Ireland could have got a few extra Unionist votes by pushing for an NI specific answer:

Remain
Noooo Treaty of Rome

And I am, actually, now getting my coat...

isam · January 2016

Is

"Poll showing support for LEAVE is good news for REMAIN"

the new

"UKIP achieving best ever result bad news for UKIP"

?

Toms · January 2016

I don't think this is deep. I do fear that "leave" may now win. We are an island, and the new immigrant problem does the "stayers" , psycholgically, no favours.

Still, one can hope, for the whole point of the EU, (Is it not?), is to approach problems communally.

Sandpit · January 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.

Interesting that he thinks a higher turnout will help Leave, whereas the consensus on here is that a higher turnout will help Remain.

How it plays in Scotland could be particularly interesting, could it be that the SNP subtly change tactics and encourage a Leave vote in pursuit of Indyref II?

rcs1000 · January 2016

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:
On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.
Crucially, his analysis shows that if, as expected, David Cameron recommends a vote to stay in, it is likely to persuade voters to go in the opposite direction because of the length of time he has been prime minister.
That's intriguing. Of course, in some part, this feels like a new government, even though there is a lot of continuity.

Generally I'm being guided more by what the politicians are doing than by the polls - an approach that would have worked well last May with DC visiting Twickenham and EM visiting Warwickshire North.

Reading through his piece, you could change the words vote against the EU, for vote for the status quo, and end up with exactly the opposite conclusion.

Dair · January 2016

DavidL said:

Dair said:

DavidL said:
I am not finding the source of AF Neill's deeply depressing figures. Can anyone help with a link?
http://www.oecd.org/education/skills-beyond-school/building-skills-for-all-review-of-england.pdf

I don't understand why they haven't included Scotland and Wales in their choice of comparison countries.
Thanks. To be honest the Scottish comparator was one of the things I was looking for. As you say, disappointing.

There was an OECD report for the Scottish Government last year which was generally positive.

http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/OECD-review-of-Scottish-education-206d.aspx

Overall, I think it is probably safe to say that education in Scotland is in a far better position than it is in England, epecially the refocusing on FE Colleges and away from using Universities as dumping grounds (no matter how that might let opponents create statistical lies).

John_M · January 2016

Sandpit said:
FPT
taffys said:
He has done his best to keep the cap on spending despite the huge bias to ever greater expenditure built in by that idiot Brown.

Really? whatever happened to bonfire of the quangos? Osborne likes his pet projects and spending on friends as much as his mentor Brown. His last budget illustrated that amply. Chote gave him 26 billion and he promptly spent it.
It's a little mean to characterise him as Brown, at least with Osborne the numbers are moving in the right direction, but it's true that he tries to make every decision with a party-political angle that needn't be there.

With the opposition in complete disarray the next budget should be the most radical in a generation, thinking the unthinkable about what the State actually does. For some examples what does DCMS do that couldn't be 90% handed straight to the Lottery? Offering tax breaks for private health insurance would stimulate growth in both insurance and providers of healthcare, while reducing demand in the NHS. For a really big one, merge income tax and NI, throw hundreds of pages of complicated tax code in the bin and replace them with half a dozen, meaning that the average small businessman doesn't need lawyers and accountants just to fill in his tax return or run a simple payroll.

Osborne shares Brown's love of tinkering and a view that complexity is a virtue.

I was crushingly disappointed by the Autumn statement. I console myself that the victory in May 2015 was a surprise to all concerned, and with more time to plan, more radical reform may come our way this year.

However, I'm not holding my breath; this government only looks good because the opposition is so appalling that I'm constantly having to consult Roget's for new epithets to apply.

foxinsoxuk · January 2016

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.
Interesting that he thinks a higher turnout will help Leave, whereas the consensus on here is that a higher turnout will help Remain.

How it plays in Scotland could be particularly interesting, could it be that the SNP subtly change tactics and encourage a Leave vote in pursuit of Indyref II?

The influence of turnout is a question of class vs age. Older people are more likely to vote Leave, but higher social class vote Remain. I do not think there is a settled pb consensus on the issue. In the Sindyref high turnout areas tended to vote for Union, and the relatively low turnout one for independence.

AlastairMeeks · January 2016

Pro_Rata said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

richardDodd said:
As I have posted here on a number of occasions..I think the leave vote will be about 57%

richardDodd said:
As I have posted here on a number of occasions..I think the leave vote will be about 57%
With Scotland, Wales and Ireland solid in Remain and David Cameron's personal recommendation, if he does, for Remain I would reverse those figures, indeed it could be as high as 60-40 Remain
Wales is pretty much evenly divided. I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists in Northern Ireland will vote for Leave, albeit, still leaving Remain ahead by c.55-45% in eh Province.
Perhaps the leavers in Northern Ireland could have got a few extra Unionist votes by pushing for an NI specific answer:

Remain
Noooo Treaty of Rome

And I am, actually, now getting my coat...

There has been some polling on the EU referendum in Northern Ireland:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/how-will-northern-ireland-vote-in-the-upcoming-eu-referendum-34176966.html

If this is anywhere near right, Remain will win by roughly 2:1 in Northern Ireland.

HenryGManson · January 2016

O/T Interestingly the Jewish Chronicle seems very positive about Sadiq Khan's campaign for mayor and critical of Goldsmith's efforts to date:

'Mr Khan outlined a detailed knowledge of London Jews' concerns – distancing himself from toxic former mayor Ken Livingstone, dropping names of his Jewish friends and backers, and explaining how his Muslim faith makes him aware of shared issues such as religious slaughter, circumcision and concerns about coroners and burial.'

'It is not hard to see through a politician's weak hand and Mr Goldsmith has not yet provided any developed thought on what exactly he would do for London's Jews. Is he poorly briefed? A bad media performer? Perhaps. But it really does not take much to trot out some well-rehearsed lines on areas of communal concern.'

'Charming, urbane, a safe pair of hands. All of this may be true of Mr Goldsmith, but when repeated probing reveals no depth of knowledge on key Jewish issues, should we not be concerned?

'...unless Mr Goldsmith gets his campaign into gear quickly, it will be the red flag flying over mayor HQ on the bank of the Thames'

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/152843/whats-really-strange-khan-looks-a-better-bet

Tissue_Price · January 2016

John_M said:
Osborne shares Brown's love of tinkering and a view that complexity is a virtue.

I was crushingly disappointed by the Autumn statement. I console myself that the victory in May 2015 was a surprise to all concerned, and with more time to plan, more radical reform may come our way this year.

However, I'm not holding my breath; this government only looks good because the opposition is so appalling that I'm constantly having to consult Roget's for new epithets to apply.

I too long for some simplification - the problem being that doing so in a cost-neutral way is bound to create losers. The time for simplification is probably when there is a sufficient budget surplus to do so.

Pulpstar · January 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Pro_Rata said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

richardDodd said:
As I have posted here on a number of occasions..I think the leave vote will be about 57%

richardDodd said:
As I have posted here on a number of occasions..I think the leave vote will be about 57%
With Scotland, Wales and Ireland solid in Remain and David Cameron's personal recommendation, if he does, for Remain I would reverse those figures, indeed it could be as high as 60-40 Remain
Wales is pretty much evenly divided. I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists in Northern Ireland will vote for Leave, albeit, still leaving Remain ahead by c.55-45% in eh Province.
Perhaps the leavers in Northern Ireland could have got a few extra Unionist votes by pushing for an NI specific answer:

Remain
Noooo Treaty of Rome

And I am, actually, now getting my coat...
There has been some polling on the EU referendum in Northern Ireland:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/how-will-northern-ireland-vote-in-the-upcoming-eu-referendum-34176966.html

If this is anywhere near right, Remain will win by roughly 2:1 in Northern Ireland.

Blimey - why are the Nats so in favour ?

Is it because Ireland is in the Euro and EU ?

Plato_Says · January 2016

I follow the Zac Twitter account and what dull fodder it is. I don't like him, but his campaign team seems to lack any umph.

HenryGManson said:
O/T Interestingly the Jewish Chronicle seems very positive about Sadiq Khan's campaign for mayor and critical of Goldsmith's efforts to date:

'Mr Khan outlined a detailed knowledge of London Jews' concerns – distancing himself from toxic former mayor Ken Livingstone, dropping names of his Jewish friends and backers, and explaining how his Muslim faith makes him aware of shared issues such as religious slaughter, circumcision and concerns about coroners and burial.'

'It is not hard to see through a politician's weak hand and Mr Goldsmith has not yet provided any developed thought on what exactly he would do for London's Jews. Is he poorly briefed? A bad media performer? Perhaps. But it really does not take much to trot out some well-rehearsed lines on areas of communal concern.'

'Charming, urbane, a safe pair of hands. All of this may be true of Mr Goldsmith, but when repeated probing reveals no depth of knowledge on key Jewish issues, should we not be concerned?

'...unless Mr Goldsmith gets his campaign into gear quickly, it will be the red flag flying over mayor HQ on the bank of the Thames'

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/152843/whats-really-strange-khan-looks-a-better-bet

Plato_Says · January 2016

Cracking long read http://brendanoneill.co.uk/post/137934715274/the-violence-of-the-safe-space

That Safe Spaces can generate so much unsafety is revealing. It exposes the iron fist of authoritarianism that lurks within the velvet glove of the self-esteem movement. It exposes the dark side to the cult of therapy and the idea that an individual’s feeling of self-worth should override other people’s right to express themselves as they see fit.

The motor of campus censorship is a profound feeling of psychic vulnerability among students. They see everything as a threat to their mental security. Statues of old dead white men, novels that feature sexual violence, pop songs… everything is considered potentially wounding.

This is best summed up in the idea of microaggressions, where even innocent, everyday conversation is reframed as a peril. The Oxford students currently trying to have a statue of Cecil Rhodes taken down describe the statue as an “environmental microaggression”. Even inanimate objects are experienced as an attack on the self.

This extreme psychic vulnerability confirms that we’re entering a new and quite terrifying era of censorship. Once we had ideological censorship, designed to elevate a particular political outlook by suppressing others. We had religious censorship, designed to protect a certain belief system through crushing blasphemy. Now we have therapeutic censorship — censorship which aspires to squash or at least demonise anything that any individual finds aggressive, uncomfortable, or wounding to their worth. It is a tyranny of self-regard.

Dair · January 2016

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.
Interesting that he thinks a higher turnout will help Leave, whereas the consensus on here is that a higher turnout will help Remain.

How it plays in Scotland could be particularly interesting, could it be that the SNP subtly change tactics and encourage a Leave vote in pursuit of Indyref II?

There is no need for the SNP to become involved any Machievellian dealings. As things stand, it does not appear possible for Remain to win. They start with too small a lead (if any) and the argument for Remain is complex and does not fit soundbites. So over the UK, Leave will win, while Scotland will vote Remain.

Makes absolutely no difference to me whether the UK leaves or stays, membership of the EU is a convenience with some economic benefits but not particularly ones that will ever impact on me (in truth it basically comes down to London remaining a big player in Financial Services).

In or Out, who cares. What does matter is getting the Second Referendum on the table as soon as possible and stop money draining from Scotland to Westminster. That's the only priority.

David_Evershed · January 2016

Two sets each in the Australian semi.

Murray has two breaks of serve in the fifth set and leads Raonic 3-0.

DavidL · January 2016

HenryGManson said:
O/T Interestingly the Jewish Chronicle seems very positive about Sadiq Khan's campaign for mayor and critical of Goldsmith's efforts to date:

'Mr Khan outlined a detailed knowledge of London Jews' concerns – distancing himself from toxic former mayor Ken Livingstone, dropping names of his Jewish friends and backers, and explaining how his Muslim faith makes him aware of shared issues such as religious slaughter, circumcision and concerns about coroners and burial.'

'It is not hard to see through a politician's weak hand and Mr Goldsmith has not yet provided any developed thought on what exactly he would do for London's Jews. Is he poorly briefed? A bad media performer? Perhaps. But it really does not take much to trot out some well-rehearsed lines on areas of communal concern.'

'Charming, urbane, a safe pair of hands. All of this may be true of Mr Goldsmith, but when repeated probing reveals no depth of knowledge on key Jewish issues, should we not be concerned?

'...unless Mr Goldsmith gets his campaign into gear quickly, it will be the red flag flying over mayor HQ on the bank of the Thames'

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/152843/whats-really-strange-khan-looks-a-better-bet

Murray starting to look like a true Brit. I understood your logic this morning but I am delighted you might be proven wrong for once.

SandyRentool · January 2016

On this benefits 'negotiation', Cameron and his lickspittlers are full of piss and wind.

Perhaps, maybe, if you ask nicely, and the rest of us say OK. Worthless.

Vote Leave, ffs.

chestnut · January 2016

FPT

DavidL said:

Dair said:

DavidL said:
I am not finding the source of AF Neill's deeply depressing figures. Can anyone help with a link?
http://www.oecd.org/education/skills-beyond-school/building-skills-for-all-review-of-england.pdf

I don't understand why they haven't included Scotland and Wales in their choice of comparison countries.
Thanks. To be honest the Scottish comparator was one of the things I was looking for. As you say, disappointing.

It would be illuminating to see the outcome based upon English regions and cities.

The number of people with "English Spoken as an Other Language" is likely to act regressively on the performance measures for literacy, and as these youngsters are disproportionately based in England it is bound to have an impact.

The university outcome is entirely predictable. There was never a realistic need in the jobs market for 50% to undertake a university education.

How many graduates does the UK economy really need?

Dair · January 2016

David_Evershed said:
Two sets each in the Australian semi.

Murray has two breaks of serve in the fifth set and leads Raonic 3-0.

Looks like three of the Australian Open finals will have Scots featuring.

Time to pop on the Tim Henman ~~MP4s~~ ~~Blu-Rays~~ ~~DVDs~~ VHS tapes.

watford30 · January 2016

Dair said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.
Interesting that he thinks a higher turnout will help Leave, whereas the consensus on here is that a higher turnout will help Remain.

How it plays in Scotland could be particularly interesting, could it be that the SNP subtly change tactics and encourage a Leave vote in pursuit of Indyref II?
There is no need for the SNP to become involved any Machievellian dealings. As things stand, it does not appear possible for Remain to win. They start with too small a lead (if any) and the argument for Remain is complex and does not fit soundbites. So over the UK, Leave will win, while Scotland will vote Remain.

Makes absolutely no difference to me whether the UK leaves or stays, membership of the EU is a convenience with some economic benefits but not particularly ones that will ever impact on me (in truth it basically comes down to London remaining a big player in Financial Services).

In or Out, who cares. What does matter is getting the Second Referendum on the table as soon as possible and stop money draining from Scotland to Westminster. That's the only priority.

Scotland had a referendum a couple of years ago, and Remain won.

Wish as hard as you like, but that's it for decades.

AndyJS · January 2016

Didn't the JC endorse Ken last time, much to everyone's surprise? Or maybe my memory is faulty on this occasion.

HenryGManson said:
O/T Interestingly the Jewish Chronicle seems very positive about Sadiq Khan's campaign for mayor and critical of Goldsmith's efforts to date:

'Mr Khan outlined a detailed knowledge of London Jews' concerns – distancing himself from toxic former mayor Ken Livingstone, dropping names of his Jewish friends and backers, and explaining how his Muslim faith makes him aware of shared issues such as religious slaughter, circumcision and concerns about coroners and burial.'

'It is not hard to see through a politician's weak hand and Mr Goldsmith has not yet provided any developed thought on what exactly he would do for London's Jews. Is he poorly briefed? A bad media performer? Perhaps. But it really does not take much to trot out some well-rehearsed lines on areas of communal concern.'

'Charming, urbane, a safe pair of hands. All of this may be true of Mr Goldsmith, but when repeated probing reveals no depth of knowledge on key Jewish issues, should we not be concerned?

'...unless Mr Goldsmith gets his campaign into gear quickly, it will be the red flag flying over mayor HQ on the bank of the Thames'

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/152843/whats-really-strange-khan-looks-a-better-bet

David_Evershed · January 2016

Cameron doing his best to anger REMAIN voters by handing some minor decisions about the UK's benefit system to the EU Commission.

Vote LEAVE to start a serious negotiation between the UK and the EU where the UK then has leverage to change some substantive issues. The EU encourages second referendums after new negotiations.

rcs1000 · January 2016

David_Evershed said:
Cameron doing his best to anger REMAIN voters by handing some minor decisions about the UK's benefit system to the EU Commission.

Vote LEAVE to start a serious negotiation between the UK and the EU where the UK then has leverage to change some substantive issues. The EU encourages second referendums after new negotiations.

No.

Leave is leave.

The British government will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty immediately following a vote to Leave.

DavidL · January 2016

Tissue_Price said:

John_M said:
Osborne shares Brown's love of tinkering and a view that complexity is a virtue.

I was crushingly disappointed by the Autumn statement. I console myself that the victory in May 2015 was a surprise to all concerned, and with more time to plan, more radical reform may come our way this year.

However, I'm not holding my breath; this government only looks good because the opposition is so appalling that I'm constantly having to consult Roget's for new epithets to apply.
I too long for some simplification - the problem being that doing so in a cost-neutral way is bound to create losers. The time for simplification is probably when there is a sufficient budget surplus to do so.

I think that is right. Throughout his tenure Osborne has been desperate for cash so changes have tended to be things like GAAR, much more aggressive challenges to tax avoidance schemes, international treaties to force compliance, the Google tax (innovative but may be regretting that one) limiting reliefs and closing down abuses. None of this tends the code to simplicity but it has been absolutely necessary.

As I have been saying I don't think his job is getting any easier, probably the reverse in fact, so I am not optimistic that there will be much simplification soon.

Plato_Says · January 2016

So much PR for his charity

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm

DavidL · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm

Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Matt Ridley is very forthright here on invasive species http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/eradicating-rats-from-oceanic-islands/

DavidL · January 2016

Murray wins!

All that effort to get thumped by Djokovic. Again.

Pulpstar · January 2016

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.

Trump at 51% in Michigan, the rest nowhere. He can do what he likes once he's the nominee. Even quit the race

Casino_Royale · January 2016

Khan will win London resoundingly because:

(a) Zac doesn't excite his base, and;
(b) London's demographics have moved even more heavily in Labour's favour, and it's ground zero of Corbynism.

Sandpit · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
So much PR for his charity

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm

Trump is doing a supreme job of self-publicity. Everyone else looks like a rank amateur by comparison.

Plato_Says · January 2016

What's the nomination timetable?

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.
Trump at 51% in Michigan, the rest nowhere. He can do what he likes once he's the nominee. Even quit the race

Casino_Royale · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Pro_Rata said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

richardDodd said:
As I have posted here on a number of occasions..I think the leave vote will be about 57%

richardDodd said:
As I have posted here on a number of occasions..I think the leave vote will be about 57%
With Scotland, Wales and Ireland solid in Remain and David Cameron's personal recommendation, if he does, for Remain I would reverse those figures, indeed it could be as high as 60-40 Remain
Wales is pretty much evenly divided. I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists in Northern Ireland will vote for Leave, albeit, still leaving Remain ahead by c.55-45% in eh Province.
Perhaps the leavers in Northern Ireland could have got a few extra Unionist votes by pushing for an NI specific answer:

Remain
Noooo Treaty of Rome

And I am, actually, now getting my coat...
There has been some polling on the EU referendum in Northern Ireland:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/how-will-northern-ireland-vote-in-the-upcoming-eu-referendum-34176966.html

If this is anywhere near right, Remain will win by roughly 2:1 in Northern Ireland.
Blimey - why are the Nats so in favour ?

Is it because Ireland is in the Euro and EU ?

Because the Unionists aren't.

SandyRentool · January 2016

Casino_Royale said:
Khan will win London resoundingly because:

(a) Zac doesn't excite his base, and;
(b) London's demographics have moved even more heavily in Labour's favour, and it's ground zero of Corbynism.

(c) Half the voters think that the bloke from 'Citizen Khan' is the candidate.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Coverage of his veteran event matched the Fox Debate on Google trends IIRC.

He's on a massive roll.

Sandpit said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR for his charity

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Trump is doing a supreme job of self-publicity. Everyone else looks like a rank amateur by comparison.

Sandpit · January 2016

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.

Fox will quite happily bury the hatchet almost overnight with Trump if he's the nominee. They'll do whatever it takes to stop Hilary.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Lolz

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:
Khan will win London resoundingly because:

(a) Zac doesn't excite his base, and;
(b) London's demographics have moved even more heavily in Labour's favour, and it's ground zero of Corbynism.
(c) Half the voters think that the bloke from 'Citizen Khan' is the candidate.

Plato_Says · January 2016

That's my take too. What made them use a single candidate last night as I Agree With Nick fodder? It was a mess all round. Donald picked the right one to skip.

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.
Fox will quite happily bury the hatchet almost overnight with Trump if he's the nominee. They'll do whatever it takes to stop Hilary.

chestnut · January 2016

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:
Khan will win London resoundingly because:

(a) Zac doesn't excite his base, and;
(b) London's demographics have moved even more heavily in Labour's favour, and it's ground zero of Corbynism.
(c) Half the voters think that the bloke from 'Citizen Khan' is the candidate.

He is, isn't he?

Pulpstar · January 2016

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.
Fox will quite happily bury the hatchet almost overnight with Trump if he's the nominee. They'll do whatever it takes to stop Hilary.

Trump sounded like the Fox feud was pretty much over at the start of his speech last night.

Will there be more Fox debates planned by the way ?

DavidL · January 2016

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.
Fox will quite happily bury the hatchet almost overnight with Trump if he's the nominee. They'll do whatever it takes to stop Hilary.

I wouldn't be completely sure of that. He is really ticking them off.

LondonBob · January 2016

JonathanD said:

Plato_Says said:
Shit stirring

Russian Embassy UK
German government threw their country under feet of migrants like a rug, now try wipe their crimes under carpet. https://t.co/VLFUIguyqk

"The review reflects mounting concerns in Washington over Moscow’s determination to exploit European disunity in order to undermine Nato, block US missile defence programmes and revoke the punitive economic sanctions regime imposed after the annexation of Crimea....

“It really is a new Cold War out there,” the source said, “Right across the EU we are seeing alarming evidence of Russian efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity on a whole range of vital strategic issues.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/12103602/America-to-investigate-Russian-meddling-in-EU.html

Americans meddling in European affairs again, presumably you object to this? You seem to have saved that article, interesting...

Requested by Congress, this being the same Congress that had to be warned by the White House that the NSA was listening to them plotting with Israeli government to undermine the nuclear deal with Iran and that they should back off.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3297431/Hungarian-Prime-Minister-accuses-billionaire-investor-George-Soros-trying-undermine-Europe-supporting-refugees-travelling-Middle-East.html

One side seems to be destroying these countries in the middle east and encouraging the refugee flow here , the other opposing. I know which side I take. Personally I wish all the special interests, lobbies and agent of influence would be tackled so we can formulate our policies in our national interest.

AlastairMeeks · January 2016

Fox News should have gone for the tub of lard approach and scrupulously asked it a question on each round.

AndyJS · January 2016

Casino_Royale said:
Khan will win London resoundingly because:

(a) Zac doesn't excite his base, and;
(b) London's demographics have moved even more heavily in Labour's favour, and it's ground zero of Corbynism.

I still think it will be close and Goldsmith has a chance, despite being a rather uninspiring candidate.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Favourite tweet chat today

Victoria Peckham
Lobby geniuses: am I right in thinking Britain has never had a teetotal Prime Minister?

Joe Murphy
@Dannythefink @VictoriaPeckham You mean the PM who only lasted 211 days in office? Kind of makes the point, doesn't it.

Pulpstar · January 2016

Ed Miliband would have never dared miss a debate he was invited to

LondonBob · January 2016

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.

Fox News would love to campaign for HRC ahead of Trump, reality is they won't as they would upset their customers. I fail to see how this is a mistake for Trump, taking on Fox is a boon for his support amongst moderates and left leaners, already seen a number of favourable comments.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R

HYUFD · January 2016

LondonBob said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.
Fox News would love to campaign for HRC ahead of Trump, reality is they won't as they would upset their customers. I fail to see how this is a mistake for Trump, taking on Fox is a boon for his support amongst moderates and left leaners, already seen a number of favourable comments.

Murdoch certainly is closer to Hillary than Trump, he dislikes Obama but respects the Clintons

Plato_Says · January 2016

Titters

Marcher Lord
It's now past midday and Corbyn hasn't trended once today. This is now what passes as a 'good day' for Labour.

HYUFD · January 2016

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
On topic, Brexit will win:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/638856/Academic-who-correctly-predicted-Scottish-Referendum-says-Brexit-campaign-WILL-win

So says an academic.

I'm not convinced, but it's well worth reading.
Interesting that he thinks a higher turnout will help Leave, whereas the consensus on here is that a higher turnout will help Remain.

How it plays in Scotland could be particularly interesting, could it be that the SNP subtly change tactics and encourage a Leave vote in pursuit of Indyref II?

Jim Sillars the former deputy SNP leader and Glasgow Govan MP already backs leave and wants Scotland out of the UK and EU

FrancisUrquhart · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R

Ultimate luuvie outrage.

AlastairMeeks · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R

He has a point. The Oscars being white-dominated is not about a few rich and very entitled black actors who can no doubt survive without the acclaim of their peers. It's a demonstration that one of the USA's biggest industries (and one that is supposedly very liberal) remains completely dominated by social structures that institutionalise white privilege.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Titters

Marcher Lord
It's now past midday and Corbyn hasn't trended once today. This is now what passes as a 'good day' for Labour.

Still time yet. I once made that mistake stating that on here when it got past teatime, and then there were two car crashes before the clock struck midnight....

SimonStClare · January 2016

FrancisUrquhart said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Ultimate luuvie outrage.

Indeed, all must have prizes - the Oscars may be the last bastion of a meritocracy.

Richard_Nabavi · January 2016

I think this is the best and most thought-provoking article I've seen on Trump:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-is-shocking-vulgar-and-right-213572?o=0

Plato_Says · January 2016

WTF http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/152914/labour-friends-israel-calls-anti-israel-speaker-be-barred-parliament-event

Sandpit · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Titters

Marcher Lord
It's now past midday and Corbyn hasn't trended once today. This is now what passes as a 'good day' for Labour.

It's only 13:20 in the UK now, right? Still an awful lot of day to go...

Sean_F · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R

How sad.

Pro_Rata · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Titters

Marcher Lord
It's now past midday and Corbyn hasn't trended once today. This is now what passes as a 'good day' for Labour.

Plato_Says said:
WTF http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/152914/labour-friends-israel-calls-anti-israel-speaker-be-barred-parliament-event

Ah. So was the first comment a set up for the second??

LondonBob · January 2016

HYUFD said:

LondonBob said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.
Fox News would love to campaign for HRC ahead of Trump, reality is they won't as they would upset their customers. I fail to see how this is a mistake for Trump, taking on Fox is a boon for his support amongst moderates and left leaners, already seen a number of favourable comments.
Murdoch certainly is closer to Hillary than Trump, he dislikes Obama but respects the Clintons

National Review, Commentary, The Weekly Standard, Wall Street Journal, and the conservative and neocon columnists on the op-ed pages at The Washington Post and The New York Times have almost all come out viscerally against Trump.

He, in turn, has trashed several by name. Wounds have been inflicted that will not soon be forgiven or forgotten.

But while columns and magazines appear in print twice weekly, weekly, biweekly and monthly, millions listen to talk radio every hour of every day. And though websites might be updated daily, radio, more than print, is a medium that moves people.

Among the top talkers, Trump gets more than a fair hearing. Some of the talk shows with the largest audiences are sympathetic, others are supportive. And the Drudge Report, the daily newspaper of Middle America, tracks Trump’s every move.

In the media battle, then, the media elite are being swamped by Trump. And Trump is winning the political battle as well. According to almost every poll, state or national, Trump is ahead of all rivals, with his closest challenger trailing by 10 or more points. Among the populist and Tea Party right, Trump has lapped the field, and he is now competitive among Evangelicals.

http://buchanan.org/blog/the-civil-war-of-the-right-124676

Neoconservatism and liberal interventionism are top down impositions and have no support base amongst the American people, most aren't loons.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Damning and true

He Exists Because You Failed

American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump. In the case of Trump, though, the GOP shares the blame, and not just because his fellow Republicans misdirected their ad buys or waited so long to criticize him. Trump is in part a reaction to the intellectual corruption of the Republican Party. That ought to be obvious to his critics, yet somehow it isn’t.

Richard_Nabavi said:
I think this is the best and most thought-provoking article I've seen on Trump:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-is-shocking-vulgar-and-right-213572?o=0

MarqueeMark · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R

Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....

HYUFD · January 2016

LondonBob said:

HYUFD said:

LondonBob said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:
So much PR

ABC News
Fox releases statement saying Donald Trump offered to appear at #GOPDebate on condition of $5 million donation: https://t.co/rcTGzhrdIm
Falling out with Fox like this certainly boosts Trump's outsider status but I can't help feeling it will prove a strategic mistake. There is no way the last election would have been as close as it was without Fox's work for the Republicans.
Fox News would love to campaign for HRC ahead of Trump, reality is they won't as they would upset their customers. I fail to see how this is a mistake for Trump, taking on Fox is a boon for his support amongst moderates and left leaners, already seen a number of favourable comments.
Murdoch certainly is closer to Hillary than Trump, he dislikes Obama but respects the Clintons
National Review, Commentary, The Weekly Standard, Wall Street Journal, and the conservative and neocon columnists on the op-ed pages at The Washington Post and The New York Times have almost all come out viscerally against Trump.

He, in turn, has trashed several by name. Wounds have been inflicted that will not soon be forgiven or forgotten.

But while columns and magazines appear in print twice weekly, weekly, biweekly and monthly, millions listen to talk radio every hour of every day. And though websites might be updated daily, radio, more than print, is a medium that moves people.

Among the top talkers, Trump gets more than a fair hearing. Some of the talk shows with the largest audiences are sympathetic, others are supportive. And the Drudge Report, the daily newspaper of Middle America, tracks Trump’s every move.

In the media battle, then, the media elite are being swamped by Trump. And Trump is winning the political battle as well. According to almost every poll, state or national, Trump is ahead of all rivals, with his closest challenger trailing by 10 or more points. Among the populist and Tea Party right, Trump has lapped the field, and he is now competitive among Evangelicals.

http://buchanan.org/blog/the-civil-war-of-the-right-124676

Neoconservatism and liberal interventionism are top down impositions and have no support base amongst the American people, most aren't loons.

No surprise to see Buchanan back Trump he ran a similar campaign against Bush Sen and Dole

HYUFD · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Damning and true

He Exists Because You Failed

American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump. In the case of Trump, though, the GOP shares the blame, and not just because his fellow Republicans misdirected their ad buys or waited so long to criticize him. Trump is in part a reaction to the intellectual corruption of the Republican Party. That ought to be obvious to his critics, yet somehow it isn’t.

Richard_Nabavi said:
I think this is the best and most thought-provoking article I've seen on Trump:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-is-shocking-vulgar-and-right-213572?o=0

The GOP base are also fed up of having moderate nominees who lose, after McCain and Romney they want a red meat conservative, hence Trump and Cruz doing so well

MaxPB · January 2016

SimonStClare said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Ultimate luuvie outrage.
Indeed, all must have prizes - the Oscars may be the last bastion of a meritocracy.

What's hilarious is that his wife prompted all of this rubbish because he didn't get the nomination. I've seen Concussion, it's not great and he isn't all that good in it. Smith's best role is still Ali. The single best performance by a black actor this year was Idris Elba in Beasts of no Nation. I think he deserved the nomination, but Hollywood will not acknowledge original content produced by Netflix until they absolutely have to. Elba probably lost out on the nomination due to Hollywood politics, not because he is black.

What is true is the lamentable state of black acting in Hollywood. Look at all of the stand out performances from black actors in movies over the last few years, they are all British, clasically trained theatre actors. Black American actors have a very poor reputation AIUI and casting directors would prefer to hire a Black British actor for half the money and much less hassle.

Another issue is how quickly black actors in the US want to cash in, Cuba Gooding Jr was a good example of a failed career because he decided to cash in on his earlier good performances too quickly. He had early success with Boyz 'n the Hood, then followed it up with an Oscar winning performance in Jerry Maguire (completely outshining Tom Cruise in the process) and Men of Honor for which he received a lot of acclaim. After that he cashed in and decided to make dross like Rat Race and Norbit. He has never recovered from this poor decision making. This story applies to countless Black American actors and actresses who are far to quick to cash in on early success and ruin their career prospects. I very much doubt John Boyega will make those mistakes.

oxfordsimon · January 2016

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....

How many leading roles for actors from diverse backgrounds has Will Smith's production company created?

What is he doing - as a multi-millionaire actor/producer - to provide more opportunities?

It all feels like he is in a sulk for not being nominated.

There is an issue - but it is something that can only be addressed through telling a more diverse range of stories, not by setting quotas or making demands.

Pulpstar · January 2016

The last black actor I can remember seeing was John Boyega in Star Wars.

Sci-fi/Fantasy's barrier of entry to getting any sort of acclaim at the Oscars is alot higher than other types of move. The Dark Knight wasn't even nominated in 2008 !

Now Will Smith is planning on doing Suicide Squad and some Bad Boys sequels. These movies might be good or not so good. But they aren't the sort you do for an Oscar.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2016

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....

I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....

Tissue_Price · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
Damning and true

He Exists Because You Failed

American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump. In the case of Trump, though, the GOP shares the blame, and not just because his fellow Republicans misdirected their ad buys or waited so long to criticize him. Trump is in part a reaction to the intellectual corruption of the Republican Party. That ought to be obvious to his critics, yet somehow it isn’t.

Richard_Nabavi said:
I think this is the best and most thought-provoking article I've seen on Trump:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-is-shocking-vulgar-and-right-213572?o=0

The most telling bit was the bit on DC. We're not so far away from that here.

But let’s pretend for a second this isn’t Washington. Let’s imagine it’s the capital of an African country, say Burkina Faso, and we are doing a study on corruption. Probably the first question we’d ask: How many government officials have close relatives who make a living by influencing government spending? A huge percentage of them? OK. Case closed. Ouagadougou is obviously a very corrupt city.

That’s how the rest of the country views D.C. Washington is probably the richest city in America because the people who live there have the closest proximity to power. That seems obvious to most voters. It’s less obvious to us, because everyone here is so cheerful and familiar, and we’re too close to it. Chairman so-and-so’s son-in-law lobbies the committee? That doesn’t seem corrupt. He’s such a good guy.

Dair · January 2016

Pulpstar said:
The last black actor I can remember seeing was John Boyega in Star Wars.

Sci-fi/Fantasy's barrier of entry to getting any sort of acclaim at the Oscars is alot higher than other types of move. The Dark Knight wasn't even nominated in 2008 !

Now Will Smith is planning on doing Suicide Squad and some Bad Boys sequels. These movies might be good or not so good. But they aren't the sort you do for an Oscar.

The trailers for Suicide Squad are indicating something very special. This year is shaping up to be absolutely wonderful for genre films.

Dair · January 2016

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....

Asian representation is pretty weak at the Oscars, I'm pretty sure Ben Kingsley is the only Asian winner of an Oscar.

oxfordsimon · January 2016

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....

How many actors of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi extraction have been Oscar nominated? How many actors with disabilities?

Diversity to some in this debate seems to have a very narrow definition

dugarbandier · January 2016

Pulpstar said:
The last black actor I can remember seeing was John Boyega in Star Wars.

Sci-fi/Fantasy's barrier of entry to getting any sort of acclaim at the Oscars is alot higher than other types of move. The Dark Knight wasn't even nominated in 2008 !

Now Will Smith is planning on doing Suicide Squad and some Bad Boys sequels. These movies might be good or not so good. But they aren't the sort you do for an Oscar.

true indeed that oscar demands a cerain type of movie. maybe a type which doesn't have so many black roles.

when I watched the star wars (enjoyed it immensely) I did contemplate that it is still likely impossible to cast the roles the other way round i.e. black woman takes main lead role, main lead male white character suffers panic attack during violence

what do you reckon?

Plato_Says · January 2016

How many Hispanic actors get nominations? I'm totally struggling here bar long-dead Raul Julia

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....

rottenborough · January 2016

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....
How many actors of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi extraction have been Oscar nominated? How many actors with disabilities?

Diversity to some in this debate seems to have a very narrow definition

What about the French? Marion Cotillard was stunning in 'Macbeth'.

Jonathan · January 2016

Good to see Andy Murray reaching the runner-up position at Melbourne again.

Alistair · January 2016

ALEURP'd that's a 50/50 poll.

oxfordsimon · January 2016

rottenborough said:

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....
How many actors of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi extraction have been Oscar nominated? How many actors with disabilities?

Diversity to some in this debate seems to have a very narrow definition
What about the French? Marion Cotillard was stunning in 'Macbeth'.

Jean Dujardin won for The Actor not so long ago...

dugarbandier · January 2016

Tissue_Price said:

Plato_Says said:
Damning and true

He Exists Because You Failed

American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump. In the case of Trump, though, the GOP shares the blame, and not just because his fellow Republicans misdirected their ad buys or waited so long to criticize him. Trump is in part a reaction to the intellectual corruption of the Republican Party. That ought to be obvious to his critics, yet somehow it isn’t.

Richard_Nabavi said:
I think this is the best and most thought-provoking article I've seen on Trump:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-is-shocking-vulgar-and-right-213572?o=0

The most telling bit was the bit on DC. We're not so far away from that here.

But let’s pretend for a second this isn’t Washington. Let’s imagine it’s the capital of an African country, say Burkina Faso, and we are doing a study on corruption. Probably the first question we’d ask: How many government officials have close relatives who make a living by influencing government spending? A huge percentage of them? OK. Case closed. Ouagadougou is obviously a very corrupt city.

That’s how the rest of the country views D.C. Washington is probably the richest city in America because the people who live there have the closest proximity to power. That seems obvious to most voters. It’s less obvious to us, because everyone here is so cheerful and familiar, and we’re too close to it. Chairman so-and-so’s son-in-law lobbies the committee? That doesn’t seem corrupt. He’s such a good guy.

where did i read that D.Trumps foreign (not immigration) policy sounds a hell of a lot sounder than the neocons (poss. including obama)? [Not a fan of Trumpp, if that needs clarifying]

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2016

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....
How many actors of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi extraction have been Oscar nominated? How many actors with disabilities?

Diversity to some in this debate seems to have a very narrow definition

How many white actors get acclaim in Bollywood?

OldKingCole · January 2016

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....
How many actors of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi extraction have been Oscar nominated? How many actors with disabilities?

Diversity to some in this debate seems to have a very narrow definition

A someone posted yesterday on this theme, Americans have a serious "ancestral" issue with black-white relationships. There aren't the same issues around Asians, although maybe there ought to be at the Chinese/white interface.

When was the last award to someone with significant Native American ancestry?

Dair · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
How many Hispanic actors get nominations? I'm totally struggling here bar long-dead Raul Julia

Not sure Hispanic is a good example as it's not a real thing.

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2016

dugarbandier said:

Pulpstar said:
The last black actor I can remember seeing was John Boyega in Star Wars.

Sci-fi/Fantasy's barrier of entry to getting any sort of acclaim at the Oscars is alot higher than other types of move. The Dark Knight wasn't even nominated in 2008 !

Now Will Smith is planning on doing Suicide Squad and some Bad Boys sequels. These movies might be good or not so good. But they aren't the sort you do for an Oscar.
true indeed that oscar demands a cerain type of movie. maybe a type which doesn't have so many black roles.

when I watched the star wars (enjoyed it immensely) I did contemplate that it is still likely impossible to cast the roles the other way round i.e. black woman takes main lead role, main lead male white character suffers panic attack during violence

what do you reckon?

May I suggest the IMDB message boards?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2488496/board/?ref_=tt_bd_sm

Dair · January 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....
How many actors of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi extraction have been Oscar nominated? How many actors with disabilities?

Diversity to some in this debate seems to have a very narrow definition
How many white actors get acclaim in Bollywood?

Quite a few, compared to the number that there are.

MaxPB · January 2016

Catching up with some of the business news today, Japan is still stuck in the dark ages of business. I've been informed that the state is going to bail out Sharp and a higher offer from Terry Gou (Foxconn) is set to be rejected in order to protect Japanese assets and jobs.

Every time there is some good news (Sony) the Japanese government decides to undo it by making stupid decisions. Sharp should be allowed to go bankrupt and then asset stripped. They are a failure of a company and have refused to reform time and again. I remember there was a time when I was at Sony and there were rumours that the board were considering a tie up with Sharp in order to defend TV market share, it never amounted to anything, but I remember being very worried at the time that we would end up wasting money generated by SCE on propping up a failing Japanese business under the instruction of the government.

If INCJ buy Sharp outright then it will show that Japan has not moved into the real world and intend to waste public money on saving zero productivity jobs and innovations that the market has either deemed unnecessary or too expensive to be useful (IGZO is what INCJ are said to want to protect).

Negative interest rates are just a sop to the markets to make of for the complete and utter lack of reform of Japanese corporate culture by Abe. Sony is successful because they are operated like a foreign company and the most successful division has a very, very smart Englishman at the helm (Andrew House) who isn't afraid to cut failing parts of the business (including my job as it happened!) and invest in new sectors (VR) rather than just driving into the same wall a bit faster and hoping for a different result to the last 100 times like the rest of Japan's management.

I don't know what it is going to take for Japan to reform their corporate outlook. Abe just isn't making it happen and it's very frustrating for me to see having worked for a Japanese company for so long.

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2016

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Plato_Says said:
Dearie Me

ITV
Will Smith tells @GMB it's 'almost criminal' Hollywood doesn't show America's diversity amid the #OscarsSoWhite row
https://t.co/f1EVpclR7R
Not Oscar's problem if there weren't award-worthy performances this year. Look at those doing the casting and the directors first. If they aren't making the movies, they aren't getting on the list....
I think its dead racist that Jackie Chan has never got an Oscar nomination. I mean films like The Tuxedo are cinematic masterpieces and he has been awarded best actor at the Hong Kong Film Awards over 10 times ;-) Clearly the academy are just a bunch of racists....
How many actors of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi extraction have been Oscar nominated? How many actors with disabilities?

Diversity to some in this debate seems to have a very narrow definition
What about the French? Marion Cotillard was stunning in 'Macbeth'.

Jean Dujardin won for The Actor not so long ago...

The Artist I think you mean.

runnymede · January 2016

'Americans have a serious "ancestral" issue with black-white relationships'

Yes they do - and there is a whole industry in the US based on perpetuating that problem and extracting as much attention and resources as possible by doing so.

We have it here as well.

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ips

Comments