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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NightHawks is now open
If you’re a lurker, and if like me, have politics Always on my mind or if you have a Burning Love for betting, why not delurk tonight. We don’t want a Little Less Conversation, we want more.
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Bah! Vanilla keeps logging me in and out.
I press the refresh button, and it logs me out, I press refresh again and it logs me back in.
Bizarre.
edit: this is going to be the last nighthawks for a week.
Anyway, modern tech can be alarming. I read a newsflash on the BBC that a BA flight was returning to London, and I go to my favourite flight source to find a thread. This links to another site that has a flight trace that shows it returning to Heathrow.
In real time.
Amazing (and also quite alarming) stuff. Hope everyone's okay.
[Edit: FTR, Vanilla keeps logging me out to. But it is a professional hazard for me anyway.]
I'm going to Qatar for a few days, and well the last time I was there, the Great Qatari firewall deemed a politicalbetting.com a site associated with immoral infidels and access was restricted.
Nevertheless, I hope you have a nice time. The evenings won't be quite the same without Nighthawks.
Kudos to TSE for spending the time gathering them together, they are usually quite interesting.
Which is a tad hotter compared to the Mancunian weather I've experienced today.
I've run out of pop references to put into nighthawks, so am going to recharge my batteries
I'm going to Qatar for a few days, and well the last time I was there, the Great Qatari firewall deemed a politicalbetting.com a site associated with immoral infidels and access was restricted.
I can happily report that PB was available all throughout last year when I was living in Doha!
Not sure it would be my first choice for a relaxing break but the famous Middle Eastern brunch is fun! Not a great deal in terms of tourist attractions although the Museum of Islamic Art is worth a visit.
On a more objective note, A Song of Ice and Fire (the name of the series which starts with Game of Thrones) is bloody excellent. The first 3-4 (one is split into two for paperback, I think) are staggeringly good.
Have you anything by Abercrombie or Lynch? Or read any of the Riyria Revelations?
In the independent/self-publisher/very inexpensive realm there's also The Master of Izindi, which has an Arabian Nights sort of feel, or Daimones, which is an apocalypse sci-fi story (first part of a trilogy).
On Vikings, the only relevant book I think I've read is the Unofficial Viking Manual, which is an enjoyable, light-hearted history (but that may not be what you're after).
Well, it can't just be the CBI/EEF upgraded growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014. The revised figure of 1.1% growth for 2013 is still far too low.
Nor is it poking Labour in the eye with the Messalina appointment.
Today's news, via the FT, that Lloyds Banking Group are planning to pay up to 70% of 2013-15 profits in dividends to shareholders is enough to make George more than laugh. As Pork might observe, the Chancellor is now *crying with laughter*.
Lloyds have not paid a dividend since the Darling bailout in 2008. The bailout terms even precluded payments without prior Treasury consent. All profit ('owned' of course by shareholders) was to be retained as reserves and used to bolster capital buffers and provide against impaired assets without requiring further injection of funds from us poor taxpayers.
So the movement to pay dividends tells us two important things about Lloyds's balance sheet. Firstly, the group is now adequately capitalised and, secondly, the fundamental operating metrics are now showing a healthy and normal bank.
But this is not the tickler that has brought on George's collapse into porcine mirth. What has done that is the impetus the dividend 'announcement' has given to the market price of Lloyds's shares, up 3.5% on the market opening to 76.3 pence, over 15 pence above the 'breakeven' price announced by George as the level the bankshares must reach before the government are prepared to sell.
And what is more, the current price is also above the 73.6 pence price paid for the shares by Brown and Darling in 2008. So any profit on sale would be a net cash inflow (debt reduction) in the National Accounts with all the implications that would have for borrowing reduction.
Enough to get George to tickle Pork's tummy.
And to show just how unexpected this news is, the consensus forecast dividends for Lloyds in 2013 and 2014 were until today 2.32% and 34% respectively. And the bulk of analysts were rating Lloyds a buy on that basis. If Horta-Osorio delivers, Lloyds will outperform all its competitors in its generosity to shareholders.
This now makes a successful and profitable sale of the 39% of Lloyds's shares held by the government by 2015 very probable. It also relieves pressure on the Treasury to sell if market prices fall, Osborne will after all get a 70% of the banking groups profits.
George is quite simply as jolly as a pig in clover.
Is there anybody, out there...?
I'm going to Qatar for a few days, and well the last time I was there, the Great Qatari firewall deemed a politicalbetting.com a site associated with immoral infidels and access was restricted.
I can happily report that PB was available all throughout last year when I was living in Doha!
Not sure it would be my first choice for a relaxing break but the famous Middle Eastern brunch is fun! Not a great deal in terms of tourist attractions although the Museum of Islamic Art is worth a visit.
This isn't a relaxing break, but work.
Last time I was there it was the hotel wifi that blocked me, but could access PB via my phone, but the data costs overseas are obscene.
Forgot to say thanks for buying, Mr. Firestopper. I hope you like it.
TSE did a trawl back at the time to show that complaint was demonstrably false. I was deliberately picking at the same scab but unfortunately Vanilla won't let you tag your own posts as Troll
Mind you in Qatar it was the humidity that was the real killer. It's quite nice November to February but it's hell the rest of the year!
1) A Labour stooge
2) An Islamophobe/racist
3) a deluded Lib Dem
And most hurtful of all
4) Having the worst taste in music in the history of mankind.
Anyway, as Caesar ran away after somehow getting veteran legions to lose to the newly raised men fighting for Pompey at Dyrrachium, so I must run off for some supper. Night all.
Not sure it would be my first choice for a relaxing break but the famous Middle Eastern brunch is fun! Not a great deal in terms of tourist attractions although the Museum of Islamic Art is worth a visit.
This isn't a relaxing break, but work.
Last time I was there it was the hotel wifi that blocked me, but could access PB via my phone, but the data costs overseas are obscene.
That makes more sense! I hope your getting put up somewhere decent. There's a few decent places in West Bay, The Intercon would be top of my list!
Prime ministers are like Time Lords — they need to regenerate regularly to retain their appeal. Like Doctor Who, David Cameron has been through several incarnations, putting on his cricket whites to join the Bullingdon Club, wrapping a long scarf around his neck when hugging huskies, wielding his sonic screwdriver as he entered the global race. There has been the optimistic advocate of general wellbeing and the dark Doctor for difficult times.
Titter ye not...
How does it feel when you call election results so wrong Scott.
So much for Labours big summer push. Shad Cab invisible. No Miliband, no Balls, no Chuka. No press conf. Its the Marie Celeste of relaunches
A car draws up alongside Ed Miliband. A door opens. @OwenJones84 is inside. http://tinyurl.com/onjhoch
It's a complex signing. You can't really distill it into good or bad so simply. On the one hand it shows the Tories realise that that is how you win elections. NOT on twitter or blogs (Scott take note) but if they realise that I am not sure what they are going to achieve in the next 20 months.
I think the million could possibly be better spent elsewhere given the time limits.
13. Have we ever seen the Chancellor looking so jolly?
"And what is more the current price is also above the 73.6 pence price paid for the shares by Brown and Darling in 2008. So any profit on sale would be a net cash inflow (debt reduction) in the National Accounts with all the implications that would have for borrowing reduction. "
Thank God ! Darling nationalised Lloyds. It was done with a view that it will be sold as a profit !
Your assumptions regarding debt, I think, are not entirely correct ! The investment in buying out LLoyds, RBS is not counted as a simple debt. It is accounted for separately. Therefore, the debt to GDP ratio as announced will not fall on its disposal. Of course, any profits will.
Nah, Surby.
I agree it is all very complicated in deciding which transactions are "temporary interventions" and which are included in the partial or 'ex' debt and borrowing figures. But that is the price we have to pay for Brownian obfuscation and desire to conceal the full extent of bank bailout liabilities from the public.
However, a useful principle can be applied. Once a transaction takes place which completes the 'temporary' nature of the bailout the net resolution is entered into the partial or mainstream books. So a sale at book value has no net effect on completion, but a sale at a loss or profit will result in the net variance increasing or reducing the "ex" borrowing and debt figures.
And when an elephant defecates in the street, credit should be given to the person who cleans up the mess, not the elephant for extruding moveable sh*t.
http://www.reed.co.uk/jobs/flexible-funeral-service-operative-zero-hour-contract/23386028
'Zero hour' contracts 'suit employees and business'
David Collingwood, of The Co-operative Funeralcare told ITV News around 20 percent of the company's employees work on 'zero-hour' contracts. He says the contracts suit both the employees and the needs of the business.
11:35 PM, TUE 02 APR 2013
This 'issue' or cause of the week goes back a little bit...
And yeah I meant the 2022 World Cup
But I do sometimes wonder whether people like yourself ever look back and think God I waste my time sometimes.
This is doomed to fail at the first hurdle, IMO, because it starts with the premise that the economy is recovering, but not everyone is feeling the recovery - However, the crucial admission is that the economy IS recovering after Labour staked everything on there being recovery.
Labour's econimic credability is in ruins after the Brown Bust. Their economic strategy is now in ruins because recovery (however slow and thin currently) is occurring. Swingback is taking place. Ed Miliband is VERY poorly viewed by the GBP and the time to turn around those perceptions has long since passed.
Honestly, it's terrible times for Labour and can only get worse.
But I will ask again. As you had a pop at Tim. What have you achieved with your 906 posts. And do you wish you could have the time back?
tim is on a walking holiday in Cornwall. It was a last-minute decision after a Daily Mail travel writer claimed it was the fashionable place to be this year.
He is wandering country lanes and coastal harbours searching for Labour voters.
He promised to post on PB every time he made a hit, but it appears something has gone wrong with the ground war algorithms.
But neither you or Tim would expect to think you were actually changing anything in the real world of politics on here.
IOS could you do me a favour please . Could you mention the ground game or ground war, doesn't matter which, my bingo card is almost complete and I am tired and want to go to bed.
.@ChrisLeslieMP tells #newsnight David Cameron "has the worst record of any Prime Minister...since records began" on real wages
Tory Treasury @ToryTreasury
Lab created the living standards squeeze hardworking people face & they wd be worse under Lab - wd pay for more borrowing with higher bills
Is that a tacit admittance that you DO think you are having an impact. Extraordinary. I never said I thought they were a waste of time - I am after all posting here now - just that they don't have any impact on the wider world.
But given that you think it does have an impact. If you realised it didn't achieve anything. Would you rather have the time back?
Sir Roderick was too engaged in internet dating to notice.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/44c77ec6-fb97-11e2-8650-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2b8NvextV Mayday, mayday, man drowning on live TV...
If you derive your fun in life from my postings and even deprive yourself of precious sleep for my comments can I suggest you reappraise your life a little.
I'm happy to give them a tip, gratis, free, and without strings, since I know they won't follow it: it's best to check whether the argument stacks up before running it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuEQcOk2eOI&
Have you seen Ashcrofts and Tim M's campaign for the membership figures to be released? I seem to remember you are a constituency chairman. If so do you think it would be that hard to get them together?
Erdington wasn't an AWS
who are your MEPs
the difference between being a Unite candidate and being a member of Unite in a Labour parliamentary selection
the 2 surnames of Emma from South Shields
D...I can't give you more than D. You're worse than Welsh students.
Swift. Decisive.
@LabourStudents
Check out this great opportunity to work for the Labour Party as a trainee organiser on the 2015 general election! http://www.labour.org.uk/new_job
Happy now?
Seriously do you even know what you are posting about. Do you also follow Labour students on Twitter?
I do ask you what do you think you achieve with this and do you think there will ever be a time in life when you wish you could ask for the time back?
The only membership figure I know is that for a critical seat, won in 2010, where in recent years the party has had very little organisation. There has been a very big improvement there since 2010. Obviously national figures matter, but, as with voting figures, it's marginal seats where it really makes a difference. I don't know whether the seat I was told about is an exception, though.
Given the Tories saw fit to spend a million quid on one person you can conclude that they see it both as being important and that they need significant help.
Forget the Tory membership numbers, I will start the campaign to see the figures of your MEP votes. I got 2 predictions wrong and I want to see how much I was off....
Buried at the bottom of a press release, the (low) turnout has been already announced. Yes, in regions with a single ballot, some women and men went up and down regardless of their vote to fill the zipped list creteria.....but they are likely to be in unwinnable position anyway. So there shouldn't be anything else embarrassing to hide
I am irrationally grumpy now because I downloaded it after some positive reviews and it would have reached the top of the pile later this week. Who do I write to on the Internet to get my bandwidth back?
What George and everyone else didn't anticipate was the market attacks on unsustainable debt and deficit levels in the Eurozone, and on market exposure to the lack of EU/ECB control over sovereign risk.
It was this market pressure which flushed out the Eurozone crisis and led to EU growth plummeting as corrective austerity measures were implemented and the EU/ECB fiddled while Athens burned.
And the EU problems then had a knock on effect on global growth.
At least Osborne made the right decisions on the start date and rate of fiscal consolidation in 2010. It accounts for the fact that the UK is currently leading global growth recovery.
And people should take note that the US has not really addressed its fiscal problems. The markets won't strike now but once the EU has recovered then the crosshairs will fix on Washington.
Plan your future bets accordingly.
It is surprising how much movement there is in the full books on a monthly basis due to the 'financial interventions'. Enough to believe that regular mark to market adjustments are being made on asset values.
I will do it sometime when I get bored but like giving up drinking it is always better to have one more to cement commitment and leave the decision 'til tomorrow.
I think our lives would be much easier if we based all our economic forecasting on a hypothetical outcome that didn't happen and then compare it to reality know it's almost entirely irrefutable.
"What can four objects in an office reveal about the heads of the European Parliament? Let them tell you themselves in our series taking you behind the scenes of power"
http://vimeo.com/mepin4objects
So apparently the recent 'attack America' statement from Al Zawahiri that I mentioned Sunday did potentially have significance. The BBC reports that it was an intercept between of a chat between him and an AQIM leader in Yemen that has the US worried. I actually thought Al Zawahiri didn't use telecoms much but you learn something new every day.
The other thing is the reported attack methodology would indeed be very very hard to counter.
Has anyone passed through Heathrow in the last 2-3 days? This is just a general curiosity question.
If childcare support is disproportionately given to families with both parents working then it will suprise no one that the recipients are likely to be in the "top 50% of earners".
It is simple tax/benefits incentive to mothers wishing to return to full term employment.
And as for high earning couples being given an incentive to employ au pairs, please tell me what date the following change in policy was made to immigration:
Nationals from Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania became eligible to enter the United Kingdom as au pairs.
Clue: it was before 2010.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83451b31c69e2017c344b2cab970b-pi
In all other years, taking both outturns and forecasts, there have been or are forecast net cuts in real terms. Over the five years in aggregate Osborne plans to cut spending in real terms by 2.75%.
Do you really want me to post the table of figures yet again?
Apparently they are entitled to do this because Gibraltar, like the rest of the UK, is not part of the Sheningan agreement.
This sounds a good idea. We should charge Spaniards £45 to enter the UK - the funds would contribute to improving immigration controls to count them all in and count them all back out again. It might also cause Spain to charge Uk tourists to enter Spain and thus help our balance of payments by reducing the number going abroad on holiday.
I prefer Portugal myself - a country we have never been at war with, unlike Spain.