politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The turnout problem facing Bernie Sanders as seen by the NY

HurstLlama said:

CornishBlue said:

HurstLlama said:

CornishBlue said:

SeanT said:

LucyJones said:

AndyJS said:

O/T:

"A 17-year-old girl who was physically and sexually attacked in Sønderborg will herself face charges for using pepper spray to fend off her assailant."

http://www.thelocal.dk/20160126/danish-teen-fought-off-her-attacker-with-pepper-spray-now-shell-face-fine

Are women and girls just meant to put up with this sort of thing from now on?

No, You're fucking not. And I speak as the father of two daughters. I don't want them to grow up in a West where they are reduced to what they were: fearful chattels, hidebound, chastened, humiliated, unable to walk the streets as free and equal people.

But that's where we are headed if the Muslim population exceeds 10-20%, and that will happen in our lifetimes, if not sooner, unless we STOP Muslim immigration now and start DEPORTING Muslims who will not assimilate to liberal values.

That's it. That's the choice. Wanker lefties who pretend otherwise are liars. Islam does not integrate. It conquers, or at best forms nasty ghettos.

But if women in the west want to stop this they need to wise up and use the best weapon they have. Which is not pepper spray. It is the vote. Women need to vote right, or hard right, in toto and en masse. Liberal lefties will never defend feminism, for them race trumps gender, that much is now clear.

Vote right.

You're correct, but sadly we're heading into oblivion because the majority are indoctrinated and can't handle the reality of our situation.

No, No, Mr. Blue the majority are not indoctrinated and can handle the reality. They have just learned that our political masters cannot/will not cope with the reality and that the best way to get by is to shut up and keep your head down.

Those South Yorkshire coppers, for example, who suppressed evidence, ignored complaints and even threatened complainants didn't join up to do that, but they found that telling the truth and staying true to their oath office was not a good career move, so they didn't.

We really are doomed. This will make the Fall of Rome seem like the famous rained-off flower competition of June '71 in Little Storping in the Swuff.

I don't think we are doomed, Mr. Blue, we just need to stop listening to surrender monkey politicians and start voting for those that are actually on our side. The nobs are in it for their own benefit so they will soon get the message. It happened in Scotland so it can happen in England. The EU referendum would be a good first step.

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

IIRC correctly there was a nasty case in Thailand of assailants disabling a victim with pepper spray and proceeding to beat her up and then rape her. Most weapons can be used in both offence and defence. Obviously there is an overwhelming case for mitigating circumstances here in the actual use, but in general an arms race between attackers and victims is undesirable.

Perhaps pepper spray should be made legal for women to carry in Denmark and Germany.

david_herdson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

LucyJones said:

AndyJS said:

O/T:

"A 17-year-old girl who was physically and sexually attacked in Sønderborg will herself face charges for using pepper spray to fend off her assailant."

http://www.thelocal.dk/20160126/danish-teen-fought-off-her-attacker-with-pepper-spray-now-shell-face-fine

Are women and girls just meant to put up with this sort of thing from now on?

No, You're fucking not. And I speak as the father of two daughters. I don't want them to grow up in a West where they are reduced to what they were: fearful chattels, hidebound, chastened, humiliated, unable to walk the streets as free and equal people.

But that's where we are headed if the Muslim population exceeds 10-20%, and that will happen in our lifetimes, if not sooner, unless we STOP Muslim immigration now and start DEPORTING Muslims who will not assimilate to liberal values.

That's it. That's the choice. Wanker lefties who pretend otherwise are liars. Islam does not integrate. It conquers, or at best forms nasty ghettos.

But if women in the west want to stop this they need to wise up and use the best weapon they have. Which is not pepper spray. It is the vote. Women need to vote right, or hard right, in toto and en masse. Liberal lefties will never defend feminism, for them race trumps gender, that much is now clear.

Vote right.

Whilst I don't entirely disagree with your recommendation, I find your thesis flawed from a behavioural point of view. You deal only with 'antecedents' - those things that lead to the initial behaviour - namely religion, culture, exposure to Western society. You forget consequences. Most behaviour is formed by consequences, not antecedents. If the consequences of doing these things were severe, the behaviour would soon stop. The problem is there are no negative consequences.

*Anticipated* consequences.

Luckyguy1983 said:

david_herdson said:

*Anticipated* consequences.

Yes. But also past consequences.

Dair said:

CornishBlue said:

Agreed - let's vote to Leave and hopefully that will be a first step to sorting out the political culture.

The problems with immigration have nothing to do with the EU or, to some extent politicians.

Society in the West has come to a consensus that all life is sacred and all life should be treated with respect and protection of life is sacrosanct. As such mass immigration to Liberal Western Democracies is here to stay and permanent and membership of the EU will have absolutely no impact on that whatsoever.

No political machinations are ever likely to change that.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Dair said:

CornishBlue said:

Agreed - let's vote to Leave and hopefully that will be a first step to sorting out the political culture.

The problems with immigration have nothing to do with the EU or, to some extent politicians.

Society in the West has come to a consensus that all life is sacred and all life should be treated with respect and protection of life is sacrosanct. As such mass immigration to Liberal Western Democracies is here to stay and permanent and membership of the EU will have absolutely no impact on that whatsoever.

No political machinations are ever likely to change that.

What an odd conclusion. I would personally say that British society (don't feel qualified to judge the rest of the 'West') has merely become more emotional and less cerebral. I don't think we've resolved to accept mass immigration as a moral duty, I think we're more susceptible to emotional manipulation - such as by dead baby pictures. If I'm more right than you, society could quite easily be manipulated in the opposite direction too.

Dair said:

CornishBlue said:

Agreed - let's vote to Leave and hopefully that will be a first step to sorting out the political culture.

The problems with immigration have nothing to do with the EU or, to some extent politicians.

Society in the West has come to a consensus that all life is sacred and all life should be treated with respect and protection of life is sacrosanct. As such mass immigration to Liberal Western Democracies is here to stay and permanent and membership of the EU will have absolutely no impact on that whatsoever.

No political machinations are ever likely to change that.

runnymede said:

Tony Blair 'There is a little-noticed dimension which is that, in my opinion, if the UK votes to leave Europe, Scotland will vote to leave the UK. It is extremely serious for Great Britain.'

Little noticed despite the massed ranks of Remain cheerleaders spinning this line endlessly for the last couple of weeks? How remarkable.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

viewcode said:

Anyhoo, I have an odd request.

I'm selling my flat and trying to buy a new one. The buyer of my flat is threatening to pull out so I need to buy fast. I've seen one I like *but* it's miles from the nearest bus route. There is a new development nearby which may offer a shortcut to a busstop but neither google maps nor bing maps are up-to-date at the area. What is the most up-to-date satellite shot of a given area?

Call me old fashioned but could you not walk it yourself?

runnymede said:

Tony Blair 'There is a little-noticed dimension which is that, in my opinion, if the UK votes to leave Europe, Scotland will vote to leave the UK. It is extremely serious for Great Britain.'

Little noticed despite the massed ranks of Remain cheerleaders spinning this line endlessly for the last couple of weeks? How remarkable.

HurstLlama said:

Has HMG actually tried? Restraining non-EU immigration should be very simple if the Government actually wanted to do it. Just don't issue the visas.

For HMG continuing with mass non-EU immigration is like a terminal nicotine addict not giving up the fags. There is always a reason, always an excuse.

Dair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

We do not obey the law because we've been well brought up. We obey it because we believe there will be severe consequences if we don't. Rotherham is a perfect example. Had the initial crimes been severely punished, there would have been no Rotherham. We have rape laws. The 'problem' isn't that some vile men took it into their heads to rape young girls - wicked people have always been among us. The problem is that when they did, there was no negative consequence. The benefits of continuing the behaviour outweighed any negative. We're getting tied up in focus on Islam (antecedent) when there's no consequence.

The problem is that your argument is nonsense and based on so many idiotic fallacies it's impossible to address them all. The idea that Punishment is a deterrent to crime has been debunked at every turn, they are unrelated - which is why those countries which focus on Rehabilitation and not Punishment have far, far lower crime rates. Rehabilition is the means by which failures to the adherence of cultural norms learned in childhood are addressed. In blunt terms, it is Re-Education (and with everything that means) but this is the basis of Western society.

To give it a simple, empirical example. If Punishment worked, then America would have the lowest crime rate on the planet.

Scott_P said:

@BBCJonSopel: #DonaldTrump saying he 'most likely won't do' final #foxdebate is another PR masterstroke. What are we all talking about? Trump - again

Dair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

We do not obey the law because we've been well brought up. We obey it because we believe there will be severe consequences if we don't. Rotherham is a perfect example. Had the initial crimes been severely punished, there would have been no Rotherham. We have rape laws. The 'problem' isn't that some vile men took it into their heads to rape young girls - wicked people have always been among us. The problem is that when they did, there was no negative consequence. The benefits of continuing the behaviour outweighed any negative. We're getting tied up in focus on Islam (antecedent) when there's no consequence.

The problem is that your argument is nonsense and based on so many idiotic fallacies it's impossible to address them all. The idea that Punishment is a deterrent to crime has been debunked at every turn, they are unrelated - which is why those countries which focus on Rehabilitation and not Punishment have far, far lower crime rates. Rehabilition is the means by which failures to the adherence of cultural norms learned in childhood are addressed. In blunt terms, it is Re-Education (and with everything that means) but this is the basis of Western society.

To give it a simple, empirical example. If Punishment worked, then America would have the lowest crime rate on the planet.

AndyJS said:

Dair said:

The problem is that your argument is nonsense and based on so many idiotic fallacies it's impossible to address them all. The idea that Punishment is a deterrent to crime has been debunked at every turn, they are unrelated - which is why those countries which focus on Rehabilitation and not Punishment have far, far lower crime rates. Rehabilition is the means by which failures to the adherence of cultural norms learned in childhood are addressed. In blunt terms, it is Re-Education (and with everything that means) but this is the basis of Western society.

To give it a simple, empirical example. If Punishment worked, then America would have the lowest crime rate on the planet.

I think you're wrong about rehabilitation and punishment because you're getting things back to front. It's true that countries like Norway have lower crime rates and lesser punishments, but I think it's a case of lower crime rates => lesser punishments rather than lesser punishments => lower crime rates. In other words, the low crime rates came first and allowed for lesser punishments. But if you installed lesser punishments in high crime societies I don't think the level of crime would decrease, it would be more likely to increase if anything.

TGOHF said:

Try polling "if the Uk as a whole voted to leave the EU, would you vote for independence and switching from the pound to the Euro ?"

Scott_P said:

@BBCJonSopel: #DonaldTrump saying he 'most likely won't do' final #foxdebate is another PR masterstroke. What are we all talking about? Trump - again

foxinsoxuk said:

I think that the evidence shows that the speed and certainty of punishment matter more than severity in deterring crime. Dair is right though about countries with strong societal norms of conformism, whether Japan or Sweden preventing crime in the first place. I think those societal norms are breaking down severely in Scandinavia at the moment.

Most criminals are impulsive, and do not think of the future. If they were different then they would not fancy crime. A remote chance of being caught and a very long time before punishment just doesn't work for impulsive and often fairly thick people who make up the majority of crime.

Dair said:

TGOHF said:

Try polling "if the Uk as a whole voted to leave the EU, would you vote for independence and switching from the pound to the Euro ?"

No point adding a lie. There would be no requirement to switch from the Pound (as already established and accepted during the First Referendum).

Cue a whole list of tired clichés from Loyalists that have already been debunked.

Mortimer said:

Dair said:

TGOHF said:

Try polling "if the Uk as a whole voted to leave the EU, would you vote for independence and switching from the pound to the Euro ?"

No point adding a lie. There would be no requirement to switch from the Pound (as already established and accepted during the First Referendum).

Cue a whole list of tired clichés from Loyalists that have already been debunked.

New memberships of the EU require adoption of the Euro. Scotland would be no exception.

Dair said:

Mortimer said:

Dair said:

TGOHF said:

Try polling "if the Uk as a whole voted to leave the EU, would you vote for independence and switching from the pound to the Euro ?"

No point adding a lie. There would be no requirement to switch from the Pound (as already established and accepted during the First Referendum).

Cue a whole list of tired clichés from Loyalists that have already been debunked.

New memberships of the EU require adoption of the Euro. Scotland would be no exception.

That's not what the EU requires. It requires a known pathway to the Euro but that may be postposed. Forever.

Not that it would be a new application in any case.

You know, I can't be bothered. Within Scotland, Loyalists have lost the argument. When the Second Referendum swings around in a couple of years we can go over it all again.

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Thanks to the Scottish government's new Scots language teaching initiative, I have discovered that I am trilingual - English, Scots and Spanish. For so long maligned as monoglots, the British can now rejoice in the fact that all of us are at least bilingual.

Scots and English are no closer than Swedish and Danish. They are mutually intelligible (sometimes at a struggle) but you would be unable to speak it (I can't). You might be able to read written Scots but would be unable to write it.

Some dialects of Scots are much harder to understand. Doric is nearly imposible.