politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely righ

System · January 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

While everybody else has been obsessing about voting intention numbers I’ve been looking at how the pollsters did with their lead rating last May and the big picture is in the chart above. This shows the percentage in each of the samples that gave positive ratings to Mr. Cameron and Mr. Miliband.

Read the full story here

Mortimer · January 2016

First?

Pulpstar · January 2016

Jeremy Corbyn amongst his biggest fans. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3413306/Jeremy-Corbyn-surrounded-migrants-wanting-SELFIE-visits-migrant-camp-Dunkirk.html

Open door ?

He'd be bussing them all in !

Wanderer · January 2016

A difficulty with using leader ratings in place of VI is that, ultimately, we want to predict numbers of seats won. We'd need to figure out if and how we could do that with leader ratings (or any other surrogate question). Of course, we have some trouble projecting seats totals from VI.

OldKingCole · January 2016

Wouldn’t you have some problems with smaller parties? Or was Clegg so unpopular that the crash could have been foreseen?

MikeSmithson · January 2016

Wanderer said:
A difficulty with using leader ratings in place of VI is that, ultimately, we want to predict numbers of seats won. We'd need to figure out if and how we could do that with leader ratings (or any other surrogate question). Of course, we have some trouble projecting seats totals from VI.

The narrowest leader rating gap at GE2015 was Cameron leading Miliband by 7% - exactly the same as the GB vote share margin.

williamglenn · January 2016

Wanderer said:
A difficulty with using leader ratings in place of VI is that, ultimately, we want to predict numbers of seats won. We'd need to figure out if and how we could do that with leader ratings (or any other surrogate question). Of course, we have some trouble projecting seats totals from VI.

Surely the challenge of mapping to seats won is exactly the same whether you're using leader ratings or national VI numbers?

Perhaps what the charts show is that as an electorate we think in more Presidential terms and so polling leader ratings is a better way of accessing people's unvarnished views.

Danny565 · January 2016

The problem is that this is not consistent with the new theory that the polls were not sampling enough Tories (as opposed to the problem being people who were taking part in the polls lying about their voting intention, or changing their mind at the last minute).

Apparently, when the pollsters recontacted their respondents in the days after the election, they again found a dead heat between the Tories and Labour - i.e. significant numbers of people had voted Labour despite saying they disapproved of Miliband.

MonikerDiCanio · January 2016

Pulpstar said:
Jeremy Corbyn amongst his biggest fans. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3413306/Jeremy-Corbyn-surrounded-migrants-wanting-SELFIE-visits-migrant-camp-Dunkirk.html

Open door ?

He'd be bussing them all in !

Why do these people want to escape Hollande's socialist France for evil Tory England ?

Wanderer · January 2016

MikeSmithson said:

Wanderer said:
A difficulty with using leader ratings in place of VI is that, ultimately, we want to predict numbers of seats won. We'd need to figure out if and how we could do that with leader ratings (or any other surrogate question). Of course, we have some trouble projecting seats totals from VI.
The narrowest leader rating gap at GE2015 was Cameron leading Miliband by 7% - exactly the same as the GB vote share margin.

Well, yes, but the widest was 20% (as per your article). How do we know which to take?

Tim_B · January 2016

WJLA is reporting that snow plows are getting stuck on on / off ramps to highways.

AndyJS · January 2016

The last time the leaders ratings didn't match the results was 1979 when Callaghan was far more highly rated than Thatcher. He was relatively popular even with Tory voters IIRC.

Danny565 · January 2016

OldKingCole said:
Wouldn’t you have some problems with smaller parties? Or was Clegg so unpopular that the crash could have been foreseen?

And this is another thing, the logic about leadership ratings being the real key falls apart if you apply it to the smaller parties: leadership ratings would've indicated UKIP doing much better than they did in 2015, and would've indicated the Lib Dems doing much better in 2010 than they did.

Charles · January 2016

MikeSmithson said:

Wanderer said:
A difficulty with using leader ratings in place of VI is that, ultimately, we want to predict numbers of seats won. We'd need to figure out if and how we could do that with leader ratings (or any other surrogate question). Of course, we have some trouble projecting seats totals from VI.
The narrowest leader rating gap at GE2015 was Cameron leading Miliband by 7% - exactly the same as the GB vote share margin.

That's a daft statement.

The fact that they were equal proves nothing statistically, it's a mere coincidence.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Does the same yardstick apply to Clegg?

MikeSmithson said:

Wanderer said:
A difficulty with using leader ratings in place of VI is that, ultimately, we want to predict numbers of seats won. We'd need to figure out if and how we could do that with leader ratings (or any other surrogate question). Of course, we have some trouble projecting seats totals from VI.
The narrowest leader rating gap at GE2015 was Cameron leading Miliband by 7% - exactly the same as the GB vote share margin.

Wanderer · January 2016

williamglenn said:

Wanderer said:
A difficulty with using leader ratings in place of VI is that, ultimately, we want to predict numbers of seats won. We'd need to figure out if and how we could do that with leader ratings (or any other surrogate question). Of course, we have some trouble projecting seats totals from VI.
Surely the challenge of mapping to seats won is exactly the same whether you're using leader ratings or national VI numbers?

Perhaps what the charts show is that as an electorate we think in more Presidential terms and so polling leader ratings is a better way of accessing people's unvarnished views.

I don't think it's exactly the same. VI is attempting to predict (OK, snapshot) popular vote totals and those have quite a direct bearing on seat totals. We don't have to subscribe rigidly to UNS to know that if there is a national 5% swing against the Government then it will lose a truckload of seats and we can make a shrewd guess as to which. If there is a 5% shift in leader ratings what does that imply for seat totals? I think that's a harder question to answer.

Btw that brings up another point: defeated leaders nowadays don't tend to fight a second election so you don't get an equivalent comparison between elections (keeping in mind that leader and LOTO approval is going to be negatively correlated to some extent).

runnymede · January 2016

Laughable thread...black is white etc.

Plato_Says · January 2016

I honestly have no idea what trumps what re polling.

It all depends on samples, and they're flawed for what appears to be logical reasons.

I'll remain sceptical, but immensely amused for now.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Dearie me Part 94

Scottish Resistance protest outside Tunnock's in Uddingston https://t.co/PwlifFBSbi

Danny565 · January 2016

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/690846497760526336

Tim_B · January 2016

Speaking of polls, there has been a veritable blizzard (seems appropriate today) of them regarding election 2016 here.

Sample sizes seem to vary from 300-500 people and the moe is from 5-7%. I'm not a poll freak so what is the point of this with such a small sample size?

Wanderer · January 2016

Danny565 said:

OldKingCole said:
Wouldn’t you have some problems with smaller parties? Or was Clegg so unpopular that the crash could have been foreseen?
And this is another thing, the logic about leadership ratings being the real key falls apart if you apply it to the smaller parties: leadership ratings would've indicated UKIP doing much better than they did in 2015, and would've indicated the Lib Dems doing much better in 2010 than they did.

I don't think it applies to smaller parties the major ones. It might tell you something about how a minor party would do vs it's own previous showing. Eg, if the Greens get a leader twice as well regarded as Natalie Bennett, maybe that predicts something.

Also, one way to frame an election is PM vs LOTO: who do you want in charge? It's not the only way to frame it but it's probably the most important for most voters. So even we just look at the ratings of those two people it tells us something, I think. But what exactly? Was there a leader rating gap small enough that Miliband could have won in spite of it?

MTimT · January 2016

FPT @ Speedy
Simply because they have articles making different arguments does not make a publication a mess. It was established by William F Buckley as a multi-author conservative publication. The clue is in the 'multi-author' part - contributors write their own opinions, not the publication's line.

Morris_Dancer · January 2016

Mr. 565, I thought the BNP was an ex-party?

MTimT · January 2016

FPT @ Plato
Buckley helped lay the groundwork for the Reagan-type, deeply conservative laissez-faire GOP. Trump offends every sinew of that type of conservative.

Pulpstar · January 2016

Danny565 said:
The problem is that this is not consistent with the new theory that the polls were not sampling enough Tories (as opposed to the problem being people who were taking part in the polls lying about their voting intention, or changing their mind at the last minute).

Apparently, when the pollsters recontacted their respondents in the days after the election, they again found a dead heat between the Tories and Labour - i.e. significant numbers of people had voted Labour despite saying they disapproved of Miliband.

I'm with you on this. It's a sampling problem. If a random sample could be taken, then the polls should be fine. Unless people are lieing.

Pulpstar · January 2016

Danny565 said:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/690846497760526336

The future's bright, the future's

Pulpstar · January 2016

What you probably need is a BES type sample followed by leading statements to interviewees (As they would experience in a campaign).

Plato_Says · January 2016

Many thanx, I was perplexed. Even though I watch a fair slab of US TV news.

MTimT said:
FPT @ Plato
Buckley helped lay the groundwork for the Reagan-type, deeply conservative laissez-faire GOP. Trump offends every sinew of that type of conservative.

MTimT · January 2016

Tim_B said:
Speaking of polls, there has been a veritable blizzard (seems appropriate today) of them regarding election 2016 here.

Sample sizes seem to vary from 300-500 people and the moe is from 5-7%. I'm not a poll freak so what is the point of this with such a small sample size?

Saving money (or throwing it away, depending on your POV)

Danny565 · January 2016

Pulpstar said:
What you probably need is a BES type sample followed by leading statements to interviewees (As they would experience in a campaign).

The thing with the BES is that they essentially kept harassing contacting the people who had been randomly selected to take part in the poll until they answered. As opposed to most normal polls where, if a certain person doesn't answer on the first attempt, the pollsters write them off and pick someone else to fill the sample.

But the problem is that I don't know if the BES's approach would be profitable for the polling companies (it would mean less output since the polls would take much longer to produce, and also presumably more expense from chasing people up until they answered).

TheWhiteRabbit · January 2016

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:
Speaking of polls, there has been a veritable blizzard (seems appropriate today) of them regarding election 2016 here.

Sample sizes seem to vary from 300-500 people and the moe is from 5-7%. I'm not a poll freak so what is the point of this with such a small sample size?
Saving money (or throwing it away, depending on your POV)

Statistically, the sample size between 500 and 5000 out f a population of 300m makes little difference. Outweighed by statistical biases.

Pulpstar · January 2016

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:
What you probably need is a BES type sample followed by leading statements to interviewees (As they would experience in a campaign).
The thing with the BES is that they essentially kept harassing contacting the people who had been randomly selected to take part in the poll until they answered. As opposed to most normal polls where, if a certain person doesn't answer on the first attempt, the pollsters write them off and pick someone else to fill the sample.

But the problem is that I don't know if the BES's approach would be profitable for the polling companies (it would mean less output since the polls would take much longer to produce, and also presumably more expense from chasing people up until they answered).

It's what you need to do though !

Great article here:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9544

BES response rate was 56%.

The response rate for telephone polls is never ever printed, I'd be surprised if it was ~ 10%.

CornishBlue · January 2016

Danny565 said:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/690846497760526336

"London Greater Assembly" - oh dear..

kle4 · January 2016

Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.

Morris_Dancer · January 2016

Mr. kle4, got a Yorkshire version a few days ago.

kle4 · January 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. kle4, got a Yorkshire version a few days ago.

I assume it talked of how God's own County would be diminished, and that we needed to stick it out for the long haul like Sir Geoffrey?

Morris_Dancer · January 2016

Mr. kle4, sounds very similar to your version, to be honest. It also had UKIP myths on the back.

blackburn63 · January 2016

Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.

MP_SE · January 2016

kle4 said:
Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.

That would be a spend of approximately £9million. They don't have the manpower to deliver them by hand and have to rely on posting them. This is where the Eurofanatics will come unstuck. I doubt they have sufficient activists to spread their message in the way that Eurosceptics do. My constituncy has had 10s of thousands of leaflets delivered, street stalls, etc.

Tim_B · January 2016

One interesting potential casualty of Snowmageddon is the State Department. They have fought tooth and nail to avoid FOIA requests and any other way to avoid releasing Clinton's emails.

Then a federal judge ruled that they release her emails the last day of each month. State - because of today's snow - has applied to the judge to get a delay in the next email release scheduled for next week. They want a delay of a MONTH.

The significance of this is that it delays further email releases until after the first 4 primaries, and just before the SEC Primary where Clinton figures to do well.

State is still trying any way it can to avoid releasing more emails.

blackburn63 · January 2016

MP_SE said:

kle4 said:
Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.
That would be a spend of approximately £9million. They don't have the manpower to deliver them by hand and have to rely on posting them. This is where the Eurofanatics will come unstuck. I doubt they have sufficient activists to spread their message in the way that Eurosceptics do. My constituncy has had 10s of thousands of leaflets delivered, street stalls, etc.

This spend of £9m, which seems a reasonable assumption, where does it come from? If it transpires that the EU are funding propaganda Leave will have a field day.

SimonStClare · January 2016

There was much talk before GE2015 of Ed’s dire personal ratings and how past leaders with similar ratings had failed on election night. Back then it was all about level pegging in the polls and how Cameron needed an 8 point lead just to stand still.

We seem to have done a complete about turn.

MTimT · January 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:
Speaking of polls, there has been a veritable blizzard (seems appropriate today) of them regarding election 2016 here.

Sample sizes seem to vary from 300-500 people and the moe is from 5-7%. I'm not a poll freak so what is the point of this with such a small sample size?
Saving money (or throwing it away, depending on your POV)
Statistically, the sample size between 500 and 5000 out f a population of 300m makes little difference. Outweighed by statistical biases.

210m eligible voters creating an electoral register of about 137m.

MoE for ~400 MoE = ~5%
MoE for ~1000 MoE = ~3%

Not my idea of a little difference, when the actual political status of the country probably only ever has to two parties much more than a few percentage points apart.

MP_SE · January 2016

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.

The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million (£9million if they do 6 in 12 months). I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...

RodCrosby · January 2016

Danny565 said:

OldKingCole said:
Wouldn’t you have some problems with smaller parties? Or was Clegg so unpopular that the crash could have been foreseen?
And this is another thing, the logic about leadership ratings being the real key falls apart if you apply it to the smaller parties: leadership ratings would've indicated UKIP doing much better than they did in 2015, and would've indicated the Lib Dems doing much better in 2010 than they did.

No-one is saying it's a perfectly linear model applicable uniformly to all parties.

But between the two parties in contention for government, it works very well, when the second order autoregressive component is taken into consideration.

blackburn63 · January 2016

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...

Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.

Sean_F · January 2016

FPT constituencies with big Muslim populations. Bear in mind these are mostly inner city seats filled with all sorts of groups that favour Labour - eg university workers, social housing tenants, public sector workers, people working in arts, design, media etc. The rise in the Labour vote won't just have come from Muslims.

FPT Somali gangs, there were (in 2006) specific problems in Colindale and Wembley Central which may not apply to all of London or be as bad now. Kenton lies between the two. The "juniors" liked to pick on boys outside their ethnic group, like my step-son, so we moved away. There's nothing that would tempt me to move back to London.

williamglenn · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

Danny565 said:
The problem is that this is not consistent with the new theory that the polls were not sampling enough Tories (as opposed to the problem being people who were taking part in the polls lying about their voting intention, or changing their mind at the last minute).

Apparently, when the pollsters recontacted their respondents in the days after the election, they again found a dead heat between the Tories and Labour - i.e. significant numbers of people had voted Labour despite saying they disapproved of Miliband.
I'm with you on this. It's a sampling problem. If a random sample could be taken, then the polls should be fine. Unless people are lieing.

I don't think it's a question of lying to pollsters. VI figures will always be distorted to some extend by residual loyalties or hostilities. Someone can quite truthfully say to a pollster, "I intend to vote Labour," while thinking to themselves, "but if their idiot leader puts his foot in it one more time I'm through with them..."

The thesis is that asking for leader ratings is a better predictor of actual votes than asking directly for people's VI.

Pulpstar · January 2016

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

Danny565 said:
The problem is that this is not consistent with the new theory that the polls were not sampling enough Tories (as opposed to the problem being people who were taking part in the polls lying about their voting intention, or changing their mind at the last minute).

Apparently, when the pollsters recontacted their respondents in the days after the election, they again found a dead heat between the Tories and Labour - i.e. significant numbers of people had voted Labour despite saying they disapproved of Miliband.
I'm with you on this. It's a sampling problem. If a random sample could be taken, then the polls should be fine. Unless people are lieing.
I don't think it's a question of lying to pollsters. VI figures will always be distorted to some extend by residual loyalties or hostilities. Someone can quite truthfully say to a pollster, "I intend to vote Labour," while thinking to themselves, "but if their idiot leader puts his foot in it one more time I'm through with them..."

The thesis is that asking for leader ratings is a better predictor of actual votes than asking directly for people's VI.

See the BES survey. That is Face to face, so would suffer from that problem rather more. And yet it got slightly too many Conservatives. I think the samples sampled so to speak by the pollsters voted the way they said.

MP_SE · January 2016

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.

If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.

GeoffM · January 2016

Cook only 50 short of 10k Test runs at stumps in Centurion.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · January 2016

O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.

MikeSmithson · January 2016

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.

..and your point is?

blackburn63 · January 2016

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.

This makes interesting reading

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11928390/EU-Referendum-Is-the-In-campaign-funded-by-the-EU.html

Pulpstar · January 2016

GeoffM said:
Cook only 50 short of 10k Test runs at stumps in Centurion.

Cook was the 100th player on debut to get a hundred, at Centurion. Cook may well bring up his 100 to get the equivalent of a hundred hundreds too. In addition "De Kock (Say it in a dutch accent)" got his debut century too.

MikeSmithson · January 2016

RodCrosby said:

Danny565 said:

OldKingCole said:
Wouldn’t you have some problems with smaller parties? Or was Clegg so unpopular that the crash could have been foreseen?
And this is another thing, the logic about leadership ratings being the real key falls apart if you apply it to the smaller parties: leadership ratings would've indicated UKIP doing much better than they did in 2015, and would've indicated the Lib Dems doing much better in 2010 than they did.
No-one is saying it's a perfectly linear model applicable uniformly to all parties.

But between the two parties in contention for government, it works very well, when the second order autoregressive component is taken into consideration.

Give Rod his due he has been a log-standing advocate the leader rating approach.

Tim_B · January 2016

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.

I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?

Plato_Says · January 2016

Britain invited to rejoin the European Free Trade Association (EFTA): http://t.co/RTFtnqKJVQ #efta #brexit http://t.co/kbKs0TYb3D

GeoffM · January 2016

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?

His point is quite clear.

Plato_Says · January 2016

Ha!

Sod Bloomberg. There's only one 3rd party bid I support. https://t.co/m4ctxctYu3

MTimT · January 2016

GeoffM said:

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?
His point is quite clear.

American banks buying a referendum?

MP_SE · January 2016

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?

Big multinational corporations have no interest in making life easy for the little guy. They can employ whole departments of lawyers and accountants to navigate their way through the complex legislation being churned out from Brussels. Thats before you even begin to consider the 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Who do you think is able to afford the lobbyists? The little guy sure won't have any on the payroll.

Tim_B · January 2016

when the second order autoregressive component is taken into consideration.

I have no idea what this means but I'm going to use it - sounds fantastic.

MTimT · January 2016

Tim_B said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.
I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?

according to local news, the worst band of snow is Winchester-Frederick-Mount Airy (all MD). We are 5 miles as the crow flies from Mount Airy, and at a higher altitude. Winchester is forecast to be the worst hit now - at 30" already, forecast for 44"+ by the end of snow at 9pm. Mt Airy is at 24" so far with another 10-14"+ forecast, so my guess of how much we had had by 8am this morning (18" allowing for drifting) seems about right as there is now another 6" where I shoveled then.

Cast iron wood stove going gangbusters keeping the house at a toasty 75F without any central heating. Doggies go out, get covered in snow, come in, get wet, lie in front of stove and get toasty. Repeat.

blackburn63 · January 2016

MP_SE said:

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?
Big multinational corporations have no interest in making life easy for the little guy. They can employ whole departments of lawyers and accountants to navigate their way through the complex legislation being churned out from Brussels. Thats before you even begin to consider the 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Who do you think is able to afford the lobbyists? The little guy sure won't have any on the payroll.

Plenty of labour voters will be wary of banks funding the Remain side. To them bankers and Tories are the same thing.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · January 2016

Tim_B said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.
I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?

Yes, watching in the UK.
The reporters are generally using inches.
There was a bit about snowfall at various airports.
All varying amounts between 50-65 CM.

MTimT · January 2016

MP_SE said:

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?
Big multinational corporations have no interest in making life easy for the little guy. They can employ whole departments of lawyers and accountants to navigate their way through the complex legislation being churned out from Brussels. Thats before you even begin to consider the 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Who do you think is able to afford the lobbyists? The little guy sure won't have any on the payroll.

Globally, biotech companies in developing countries make the same argument against drug trials and product trials as currently constituted. To develop a drug to proof of concept in the lab is around $50m. Trials are about $500m. Brazil, for example, can easily fund the former, much hard to impossible to do the latter. For GMO, they are totally against complex product approval processes (which Monsanto are now for) as they see them as a blatant barrier to entry to protect the multinationals.

blackburn63 · January 2016

MTimT said:

MP_SE said:

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?
Big multinational corporations have no interest in making life easy for the little guy. They can employ whole departments of lawyers and accountants to navigate their way through the complex legislation being churned out from Brussels. Thats before you even begin to consider the 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Who do you think is able to afford the lobbyists? The little guy sure won't have any on the payroll.
Globally, biotech companies in developing countries make the same argument against drug trials and product trials as currently constituted. To develop a drug to proof of concept in the lab is around $50m. Trials are about $500m. Brazil, for example, can easily fund the former, much hard to impossible to do the latter. For GMO, they are totally against complex product approval processes (which Monsanto are now for) as they see them as a blatant barrier to entry to protect the multinationals.

I know a UK based clinical research company that conducts all its trials in Ukraine now.

kle4 · January 2016

Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something? And in any case apparently he's take votes from both sides (in likely small numbers) so he's just be a spoiler anyway. While I personally prefer moderate candidates, voters, certainly in the US, at the moment seem to prefer their polarizing types.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS

rcs1000 · January 2016

kle4 said:
Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something?

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS

I've known about this for some time

blackburn63 · January 2016

kle4 said:
Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something?

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS

People donate money for different reasons, I'm curious if the EU is funding the Remain campaign.

MTimT · January 2016

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:
Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something?

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS
I've known about this for some time

Indeed, since 2007 ...

kle4 · January 2016

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:
Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something?

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS
I've known about this for some time

Well, it's been floated as an idea for some while as I recall, at the rumour stage at least.

Plato_Says · January 2016

BBC Spin Room
Caption contest. What is Jez thinking? https://t.co/hu6M23iA1r

Another holiday with Diane...

Pulpstar · January 2016

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:
Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something?

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS
I've known about this for some time

Yes, you've told people here:

I took some cover...

Michael Bloomberg 294.10 £3.00 £879.30.

Does he run if Hilary is DEM nominee or just Bernie ?

kle4 · January 2016

Plato_Says said:
BBC Spin Room
Caption contest. What is Jez thinking? https://t.co/hu6M23iA1r

Another holiday with Diane...

Ken said what?! When did we become the sane ones?

Tim_B · January 2016

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.
I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?
according to local news, the worst band of snow is Winchester-Frederick-Mount Airy (all MD). We are 5 miles as the crow flies from Mount Airy, and at a higher altitude. Winchester is forecast to be the worst hit now - at 30" already, forecast for 44"+ by the end of snow at 9pm. Mt Airy is at 24" so far with another 10-14"+ forecast, so my guess of how much we had had by 8am this morning (18" allowing for drifting) seems about right as there is now another 6" where I shoveled then.

Cast iron wood stove going gangbusters keeping the house at a toasty 75F without any central heating. Doggies go out, get covered in snow, come in, get wet, lie in front of stove and get toasty. Repeat.

When we lived in upstate NY, we bought a Vermont Castings wood stove. The heat that thing gave off was incredible - almost as incredible as how much it weighed.

Watching the DirecTV severe weather channel, which appeared overnight. It's a combination of WUSA and WJLA, both of which are local to you I think. Sounds like you are really getting some serious snow. As long as you're warm and dry that's what matters.

Heidi disappeared upstairs after her morning constitutional to lie on the bed and I haven't seen her for a while.

MTimT · January 2016

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.
I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?
according to local news, the worst band of snow is Winchester-Frederick-Mount Airy (all MD). We are 5 miles as the crow flies from Mount Airy, and at a higher altitude. Winchester is forecast to be the worst hit now - at 30" already, forecast for 44"+ by the end of snow at 9pm. Mt Airy is at 24" so far with another 10-14"+ forecast, so my guess of how much we had had by 8am this morning (18" allowing for drifting) seems about right as there is now another 6" where I shoveled then.

Cast iron wood stove going gangbusters keeping the house at a toasty 75F without any central heating. Doggies go out, get covered in snow, come in, get wet, lie in front of stove and get toasty. Repeat.
When we lived in upstate NY, we bought a Vermont Castings wood stove. The heat that thing gave off was incredible - almost as incredible as how much it weighed.

Watching the DirecTV severe weather channel, which appeared overnight. It's a combination of WUSA and WJLA, both of which are local to you I think. Sounds like you are really getting some serious snow. As long as you're warm and dry that's what matters.

Heidi disappeared upstairs after her morning constitutional to lie on the bed and I haven't seen her for a while.

This is a Vermont Castings Encore in Brick Red.

http://ryanstoves.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/encore_CB_transdrs_facefront.png

Aoife has taken to sleeping on our bed when we are not home. She knows she is not allowed to, and probably thinks we don't know, but the circle of creased bedding gives her away.

MP_SE · January 2016

blackburn63 said:

kle4 said:
Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something?

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS
People donate money for different reasons, I'm curious if the EU is funding the Remain campaign.

They may not be stupid enough to provide funding directly but you can be certain pressure will be applied to recipients such as universities and charities to speak out in favour of EU membership.

blackburn63 · January 2016

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

kle4 said:
Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something?

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS
People donate money for different reasons, I'm curious if the EU is funding the Remain campaign.

They may not be stupid enough to provide funding directly but you can be certain pressure will be applied to recipients such as universities and charities to speak out in favour of EU membership.

We need to emphasise to Labour voters exactly who is funding the remain campaign and allow them to consider why.

Tim_B · January 2016

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.
I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?
according to local news, the worst band of snow is Winchester-Frederick-Mount Airy (all MD). We are 5 miles as the crow flies from Mount Airy, and at a higher altitude. Winchester is forecast to be the worst hit now - at 30" already, forecast for 44"+ by the end of snow at 9pm. Mt Airy is at 24" so far with another 10-14"+ forecast, so my guess of how much we had had by 8am this morning (18" allowing for drifting) seems about right as there is now another 6" where I shoveled then.

Cast iron wood stove going gangbusters keeping the house at a toasty 75F without any central heating. Doggies go out, get covered in snow, come in, get wet, lie in front of stove and get toasty. Repeat.
When we lived in upstate NY, we bought a Vermont Castings wood stove. The heat that thing gave off was incredible - almost as incredible as how much it weighed.

Watching the DirecTV severe weather channel, which appeared overnight. It's a combination of WUSA and WJLA, both of which are local to you I think. Sounds like you are really getting some serious snow. As long as you're warm and dry that's what matters.

Heidi disappeared upstairs after her morning constitutional to lie on the bed and I haven't seen her for a while.
This is a Vermont Castings Encore in Brick Red.

http://ryanstoves.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/encore_CB_transdrs_facefront.png

Aoife has taken to sleeping on our bed when we are not home. She knows she is not allowed to, and probably thinks we don't know, but the circle of creased bedding gives her away.

She's worked out what every dog has worked out about sleeping on the bed - there are degrees of 'not allowed'

rcs1000 · January 2016

MP_SE said:

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?
Big multinational corporations have no interest in making life easy for the little guy. They can employ whole departments of lawyers and accountants to navigate their way through the complex legislation being churned out from Brussels. Thats before you even begin to consider the 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Who do you think is able to afford the lobbyists? The little guy sure won't have any on the payroll.

As a (multiple) entrepreneur I find this argument to be very unconvincing.

I've started - what - five or six small businesses, and there has been one occasion where Brussels rulings have been very unhelpful (the so-called VAT-mess), and one occasion where they have been very helpful. Specifically, the "Single Passport" financial services ruling allows small companies to compete and offer their services across the EU under their local regulatory umbrella.

For the other four or five businesses, I've barely noticed EU regulation. Take Genius Sports Group (formerly Betgenius): it has to take a lot of notice of individual countries laws on gambling. But there are no specific pan-EU regulations that affect it in any meaningful way. Or Crowdscores: we've not come across any EU regulation at all.

It may be very different for manufacturing businesses: perhaps someone who owns or runs a manufacturing business could comment

MTimT · January 2016

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.
I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?
according to local news, the worst band of snow is Winchester-Frederick-Mount Airy (all MD). We are 5 miles as the crow flies from Mount Airy, and at a higher altitude. Winchester is forecast to be the worst hit now - at 30" already, forecast for 44"+ by the end of snow at 9pm. Mt Airy is at 24" so far with another 10-14"+ forecast, so my guess of how much we had had by 8am this morning (18" allowing for drifting) seems about right as there is now another 6" where I shoveled then.

Cast iron wood stove going gangbusters keeping the house at a toasty 75F without any central heating. Doggies go out, get covered in snow, come in, get wet, lie in front of stove and get toasty. Repeat.
When we lived in upstate NY, we bought a Vermont Castings wood stove. The heat that thing gave off was incredible - almost as incredible as how much it weighed.

Watching the DirecTV severe weather channel, which appeared overnight. It's a combination of WUSA and WJLA, both of which are local to you I think. Sounds like you are really getting some serious snow. As long as you're warm and dry that's what matters.

Heidi disappeared upstairs after her morning constitutional to lie on the bed and I haven't seen her for a while.
This is a Vermont Castings Encore in Brick Red.

http://ryanstoves.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/encore_CB_transdrs_facefront.png

Aoife has taken to sleeping on our bed when we are not home. She knows she is not allowed to, and probably thinks we don't know, but the circle of creased bedding gives her away.
She's worked out what every dog has worked out about sleeping on the bed - there are degrees of 'not allowed'

Yup!. We've put a kiddie gate on the bedroom door, mainly to keep Bernie out so he doesn't poop in the closet, but it also prevents Aoife from getting to the bed.

blackburn63 · January 2016

The most pleasing news of the day is Spurs winning at Palace.

Incidentally hats off to Leicester, those of us expecting the wheels to fall off months ago have been proven conclusively wrong.

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2016

Hoorar for comeback wins!!

I reckon our best player wants to come home too...

GarethBale11
What a goal that is! Dele Alli

Charles · January 2016

MTimT said:

MP_SE said:

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?
Big multinational corporations have no interest in making life easy for the little guy. They can employ whole departments of lawyers and accountants to navigate their way through the complex legislation being churned out from Brussels. Thats before you even begin to consider the 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Who do you think is able to afford the lobbyists? The little guy sure won't have any on the payroll.
Globally, biotech companies in developing countries make the same argument against drug trials and product trials as currently constituted. To develop a drug to proof of concept in the lab is around $50m. Trials are about $500m. Brazil, for example, can easily fund the former, much hard to impossible to do the latter. For GMO, they are totally against complex product approval processes (which Monsanto are now for) as they see them as a blatant barrier to entry to protect the multinationals.

Only for large scale primary care trials.

In niche indications you can do a pivotal P3 trial - sufficient for approval - for $15m if you do it right. But there's very few primary care indications that you really need new drugs for these days

Charles · January 2016

blackburn63 said:

MTimT said:

MP_SE said:

MikeSmithson said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:

MP_SE said:

blackburn63 said:
Re these Remain leaflets I enquired the other day who is funding it, the cost must run into £millions.
The mailshot would have cost approximately £1.5million. I would guess they do not have sufficient supporters to deliver them by hand...
Sorry but I appreciate that, I'm just curious who has coughed up the money. As you say there are few activists, who has paid for the leaflets and postage?

I'm not being provocative, I'm genuinely interested.
If Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA donated a six figure sum each, that could be around £1million accounted for. I imagine there are dozens of businesses which have coughed up considerable sums of money.

Contrast with the Eurosceptic mega donors who seem to be mainly self-made men, Arron Banks, Stuart Wheeler, John Mills, Peter Cruddas, etc.
..and your point is?
Big multinational corporations have no interest in making life easy for the little guy. They can employ whole departments of lawyers and accountants to navigate their way through the complex legislation being churned out from Brussels. Thats before you even begin to consider the 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Who do you think is able to afford the lobbyists? The little guy sure won't have any on the payroll.
Globally, biotech companies in developing countries make the same argument against drug trials and product trials as currently constituted. To develop a drug to proof of concept in the lab is around $50m. Trials are about $500m. Brazil, for example, can easily fund the former, much hard to impossible to do the latter. For GMO, they are totally against complex product approval processes (which Monsanto are now for) as they see them as a blatant barrier to entry to protect the multinationals.
I know a UK based clinical research company that conducts all its trials in Ukraine now.

Very high risk that approach. Can't guarantee that the screening criteria are rigourously applied

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2016

blackburn63 said:
The most pleasing news of the day is Spurs winning at Palace.

Incidentally hats off to Leicester, those of us expecting the wheels to fall off months ago have been proven conclusively wrong.

Utd losing too is a corker for us - 5 point cushion

Tim_B · January 2016

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.
I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?
according to local news, the worst band of snow is Winchester-Frederick-Mount Airy (all MD). We are 5 miles as the crow flies from Mount Airy, and at a higher altitude. Winchester is forecast to be the worst hit now - at 30" already, forecast for 44"+ by the end of snow at 9pm. Mt Airy is at 24" so far with another 10-14"+ forecast, so my guess of how much we had had by 8am this morning (18" allowing for drifting) seems about right as there is now another 6" where I shoveled then.

Cast iron wood stove going gangbusters keeping the house at a toasty 75F without any central heating. Doggies go out, get covered in snow, come in, get wet, lie in front of stove and get toasty. Repeat.
When we lived in upstate NY, we bought a Vermont Castings wood stove. The heat that thing gave off was incredible - almost as incredible as how much it weighed.

Watching the DirecTV severe weather channel, which appeared overnight. It's a combination of WUSA and WJLA, both of which are local to you I think. Sounds like you are really getting some serious snow. As long as you're warm and dry that's what matters.

Heidi disappeared upstairs after her morning constitutional to lie on the bed and I haven't seen her for a while.
This is a Vermont Castings Encore in Brick Red.

http://ryanstoves.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/encore_CB_transdrs_facefront.png

Aoife has taken to sleeping on our bed when we are not home. She knows she is not allowed to, and probably thinks we don't know, but the circle of creased bedding gives her away.
She's worked out what every dog has worked out about sleeping on the bed - there are degrees of 'not allowed'
Yup!. We've put a kiddie gate on the bedroom door, mainly to keep Bernie out so he doesn't poop in the closet, but it also prevents Aoife from getting to the bed.

When I got Heidi I took a week off work to get her settled. She had terrible separation anxiety. She loved to lie on the bed. First day back at work I shut the bedroom door without thinking. When I got home I found she had ripped up the carpet, the underlay and badly scratched the bedroom door trying to get in.

Speedy · January 2016

http://morningconsult.com/2016/01/new-poll-could-bloomberg-win/

Trump 37
Hillary 36
Bloomberg 13

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_12016.pdf

N.Carolina

Trump 45
Hillary 43

Trump 41
Hillary 40
Bloomberg 10

Trump 43
Hillary 39
Deez Nuts (fictional candidate) 10

Usually independent candidates start in the high teens or low 20's before collapsing as the campaign goes on, Bloomberg is doing half of what Perot what doing when he started in 1992, and worse than Anderson in 1980 :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1992

Anderson started with 21%, he ended up at 8.
Perot in 1992 started at 24, peaked at 39, ended with 19.
Perot in 1996 started at 16, ended up with 8.

Plato_Says · January 2016

https://youtu.be/TrXxossdiLM

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
O/T Watching CNN's coverage of the snowstorm.
Slightly surprised they're giving snowfall in CM and not inches or feet.
I've been watching CNN and it's inches all the way - are you watching CNN International?
according to local news, the worst band of snow is Winchester-Frederick-Mount Airy (all MD). We are 5 miles as the crow flies from Mount Airy, and at a higher altitude. Winchester is forecast to be the worst hit now - at 30" already, forecast for 44"+ by the end of snow at 9pm. Mt Airy is at 24" so far with another 10-14"+ forecast, so my guess of how much we had had by 8am this morning (18" allowing for drifting) seems about right as there is now another 6" where I shoveled then.

Cast iron wood stove going gangbusters keeping the house at a toasty 75F without any central heating. Doggies go out, get covered in snow, come in, get wet, lie in front of stove and get toasty. Repeat.
When we lived in upstate NY, we bought a Vermont Castings wood stove. The heat that thing gave off was incredible - almost as incredible as how much it weighed.

Watching the DirecTV severe weather channel, which appeared overnight. It's a combination of WUSA and WJLA, both of which are local to you I think. Sounds like you are really getting some serious snow. As long as you're warm and dry that's what matters.

Heidi disappeared upstairs after her morning constitutional to lie on the bed and I haven't seen her for a while.
This is a Vermont Castings Encore in Brick Red.

http://ryanstoves.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/encore_CB_transdrs_facefront.png

Aoife has taken to sleeping on our bed when we are not home. She knows she is not allowed to, and probably thinks we don't know, but the circle of creased bedding gives her away.
She's worked out what every dog has worked out about sleeping on the bed - there are degrees of 'not allowed'
Yup!. We've put a kiddie gate on the bedroom door, mainly to keep Bernie out so he doesn't poop in the closet, but it also prevents Aoife from getting to the bed.

Pulpstar · January 2016

When does Jamie Vardy announce his POTUS run ?

SouthamObserver · January 2016

Spurs comeback to win and I get upgraded to First for my flight to Hong Kong tonight. Sometimes things just fall into place. I guess the plane will crash now.

Danny565 · January 2016

Speedy said:

Trump 43
Hillary 39
Deez Nuts (fictional candidate) 10

!!!

MTimT · January 2016

Wow. Terry McAuliffe on TV saying that Virginia police have responded to 1100 car accidents related to the storm.

Speedy · January 2016

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:
Even though people with such large fortunes could spent $1billion on a likely fruitless vanity campaign, are the type of people who have earned that amount really the type to just throw away that amount, if they are not the sort who's already promises to give it all the charity or something?

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg – a onetime moderate Republican who has crusaded on gun control -- is considering throwing $1 billion of his vast fortune into an independent, stop-Donald Trump bid for president, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-run-plans-report-218140#ixzz3y5OHEKsS
I've known about this for some time
Yes, you've told people here:

I took some cover...

Michael Bloomberg 294.10 £3.00 £879.30.

Does he run if Hilary is DEM nominee or just Bernie ?

Well since he's doing as well as fictional candidate Deez Nuts in the polls, I think he will run only in the case of Sanders being the Dem. nominee just to try to avoid humiliation.
Not that he would avoid it due to some ridiculous policies over burgers and soda drinks that he espouses but also that he's a Wall St. man.

Trump and Sanders will crucify him, and boy they know about crucifying their enemies in the media.

MTimT · January 2016

Danny565 said:

Speedy said:

Trump 43
Hillary 39
Deez Nuts (fictional candidate) 10
!!!

So, when asked hypotheticals this far out from the election, respondees have a sense of humour.

Speedy · January 2016

Danny565 said:

Speedy said:

Trump 43
Hillary 39
Deez Nuts (fictional candidate) 10
!!!

There's worse:

Trump 45
Hillary 41
Bug the Cat 7

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_12016.pdf

"We also tested a quartet of possible independent candidates- 2 serious ones, 2 not
so serious ones- and found that they all get between 7-10%. That suggests that
despite the unpopularity of both Clinton and Trump, there really isn't that much
of a desire for a third party candidate at this point. Michael Bloomberg and Deez
Nuts both get 10% as independent candidates- Trump leads Clinton 41/40 and
43/39 respectively in match ups where they're included. And Jim Webb and Bug
the Cat each get 7% as independent candidates- Trump leads Clinton 42/40 and
45/41 respectively when those are the independents included"

MTimT · January 2016

The wife just made me laugh. The TV is going on about creative cures for cabin fever. She said "that's easy - go outside and do something" I said, "But they're advising everyone to stay in." Wife "That's we we're a national of fat useless people!"

Speedy · January 2016

MTimT said:

Danny565 said:

Speedy said:

Trump 43
Hillary 39
Deez Nuts (fictional candidate) 10
!!!
So, when asked hypotheticals this far out from the election, responds have a sense of humour.

Yeah, 10% would vote Bloomberg for president.

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