politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder that national nomination polls at this stage in White House races have to be treated with caution
Every day at the moment the excellent Real Clear Politics site is putting up the above table showing the national polling average for the Republican nomination compared with what it was at this stage in the 2012 and 2008 races.
Off topic: 1994 EU PPB by the Natural Law party. Genuine and utterly wonderful. Good to learn that Yogic Flyers in Merseyside were responsible for crime rates plummeting.
Off topic: 1994 EU PPB by the Natural Law party. Genuine and utterly wonderful. Good to learn that Yogic Flyers in Merseyside were responsible for crime rates plummeting.
This is a point very well made. Those who are confidently stating who the candidates will be for either party right now are getting well ahead of themselves. Trump, in particular, has not even begun the fight for the candidacy. So much will turn on his organisation particularly in the caucus states. We have no idea about that yet.
However, with Trump polling so well in all the early states as well as nationally (and having done so for half a year now), it's difficult to see far beyond him.
Retail investment advice is not my area of speciality but my thoughts are these:-
1. There is a crying need for sensible investment advice for those who have some money to invest / savings but are not well off enough to justify the more expensive advisors. 2. People need to be able to trust their advisors. That is not just dependant on the individual advisors but on the reputation of the organisation. Santander has not had the best reputation in the past for customer care - trying to get past their IT is a challenge - but that does not necessarily mean the advisors are no good. 3. The costs associated with giving good investment advice are high, which is why the market has tended to focus in recent years on higher end clients. 4. I'm not at all sure that the market has yet found a good model for giving advice to the vast majority who are not in that position. 5. In some ways the whole retail banking model is broken: banks have high costs, customers don't trust them very much, they want them and need them but also want it to be done at low cost; they also need good quality advice but banks have rather trashed their USP in relation to being trusted advisors. 5. Customers need to understand that if you pay for the advice you are in charge. If you allow your advisor to be paid by someone else there will inevitably be the potential for a conflict of interest. There are ways of addressing this of course. But you don't get something for nothing. People need to be prepared to pay for good financial advice as they would for good legal advice or a good builder or electrician or dentist or whatever. 7. How Santander remunerates those advisors is key: if they're paid on the basis of sales, there is the potential for mis-selling. How they are trained, how rewarded and what disclosures are made to customers will need to be carefully considered.
I'm sure @Charles will have views on this, if he's around.
Trump looks very much like Gringrich to me, appealing to the angry. Admittedly, for the moment at least, there's no sign of his support collapsing as Gringrich's suddenly did; but we should bear the precedent in mind.
This is a point very well made. Those who are confidently stating who the candidates will be for either party right now are getting well ahead of themselves. Trump, in particular, has not even begun the fight for the candidacy. So much will turn on his organisation particularly in the caucus states. We have no idea about that yet.
From what I understand of the caucus process, I would expect it to favour candidates whose supporters had a long-term interest in and commitment to the party. It *might* be that Trump's supporters will be less likely to show up and less likely to stay to the end (which I believe is key).
FYI, Vice News have a special coming up in the next few days on the use of IMSI catchers in the UK (basically portable devices that can intercept calls, messages, and data.) Seems they are going to claim they are being fairly widely used.
Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter account “hack” was the result of a staffer leaving his account open on a hostel computer
Top security there...
It's no wonder there's a reluctance to share information with Corbyn in security briefings. That, and his, and McDonnell's obvious affiliation with those who wish to do us harm.
I have just had an email from Google+ asking me if I know three named people and inviting me to "add" them. As it happens I do know all three people but not directly:
1. The nickname of a gaming chum in Australia. I do not know his real name and the only contact I have had with him is through Steam (I bought him a steam game for Christmas) and TeamSpeak.
2. The real name of a chap in the Netherlands with whom I have exchanged a few emails using my gmail account
3. The real name of a person I was on a course with ten years ago and who is on my phone's address book but with whom I have had no contact in nearly a decade.
I have never actually used my google+ account.
So how in Gods name have Google come up with these accurate connections?
I have had a similar experience with FaceBook. I created an account because I mistakenly thought I had to for something I was doing and the wretched programme immediately came up with an accurate list of people I do actually know. Even now, months later and despite the fact that I have never used my account, I regularly get an email from FaceBook asking me if I know such and such a person and usually I do.
You don't know who the guy on the left is? He is probably the most famous Jahadi in the country...
The principal point being that McDummy can parade himself with a bunch of terrorist apologists in front of the US Embassy (?) but cannot be arsed to get to the regular PLP meeting. The secondary point is why the PLP even begins to tolerate such behaviour. The tertiary point is that all this demonstrates why the whole shooting match is totally unfit for public consumption.
Let's rephrase that. Your employer is allowed to monitor what you do with their computer. Perfectly normal in any regulated industry or data-sensitive company. I've used this lovely piece of software before - it logs keystrokes and takes a screenshot every few seconds that can be played back as a video. Scary to most people who don't know what's possible. http://www.spector360.com
I have just had an email from Google+ asking me if I know three named people and inviting me to "add" them. As it happens I do know all three people but not directly:
1. The nickname of a gaming chum in Australia. I do not know his real name and the only contact I have had with him is through Steam (I bought him a steam game for Christmas) and TeamSpeak.
2. The real name of a chap in the Netherlands with whom I have exchanged a few emails using my gmail account
3. The real name of a person I was on a course with ten years ago and who is on my phone's address book but with whom I have had no contact in nearly a decade.
I have never actually used my google+ account.
So how in Gods name have Google come up with these accurate connections?
I have had a similar experience with FaceBook. I created an account because I mistakenly thought I had to for something I was doing and the wretched programme immediately came up with an accurate list of people I do actually know. Even now, months later and despite the fact that I have never used my account, I regularly get an email from FaceBook asking me if I know such and such a person and usually I do.
1. Is your Steam account linked to your Gmail account?
MPs to vote on the idea of England adopting an official national anthem later - https://t.co/St8n0ocpyY
I'm going for Land of Hope and Glory, then I Vow to thee my country.
I detest Jerusalem.
Jerusalem is the only one of those I would sing
Some pushing Bowie's Heroes -----!!!! wtf More appropriate would be "Life on Mars" for the content and comment on England in the 1970s. Now the workers have struck for fame 'Cause Lennon's on sale again
Seriously, Land of Hope and Glory or I Vow to thee my country.
I'm asking for a friend who seems to have gotten himself into very large reds on Trump as the GOP nominee and as next POTUS. He's pretty much green on all the other candidates.
What should he do to get himself out of his very large reds? As he's now very worried the buggers are going to choose him.
I'm asking for a friend who seems to have gotten himself into very large reds on Trump as the GOP nominee and as next POTUS. He's pretty much green on all the other candidates.
What should he do to get himself out of his very large reds? As he's now very worried the buggers are going to choose him.
Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter account “hack” was the result of a staffer leaving his account open on a hostel computer
Top security there...
It's no wonder there's a reluctance to share information with Corbyn in security briefings. That, and his, and McDonnell's obvious affiliation with those who wish to do us harm.
I would be surprised if there isn't a security file on Corbyn and McDonnell. And there is an obvious question to be asked about some of those Cage people which I'm sure PB'ers will be able to work out for themselves.
I'm asking for a friend who seems to have gotten himself into very large reds on Trump as the GOP nominee and as next POTUS. He's pretty much green on all the other candidates.
What should he do to get himself out of his very large reds? As he's now very worried the buggers are going to choose him.
I have just had an email from Google+ asking me if I know three named people and inviting me to "add" them. As it happens I do know all three people but not directly:
1. The nickname of a gaming chum in Australia. I do not know his real name and the only contact I have had with him is through Steam (I bought him a steam game for Christmas) and TeamSpeak.
2. The real name of a chap in the Netherlands with whom I have exchanged a few emails using my gmail account
3. The real name of a person I was on a course with ten years ago and who is on my phone's address book but with whom I have had no contact in nearly a decade.
I have never actually used my google+ account.
So how in Gods name have Google come up with these accurate connections?
I have had a similar experience with FaceBook. I created an account because I mistakenly thought I had to for something I was doing and the wretched programme immediately came up with an accurate list of people I do actually know. Even now, months later and despite the fact that I have never used my account, I regularly get an email from FaceBook asking me if I know such and such a person and usually I do.
1. Is your Steam account linked to your Gmail account?
2. You used Gmail.
3. Do you have an Android phone?
Max,
1. No I use a different email address for steam not the Gmail one
Could this be finally the thing to sink Trump's campaign. They have tried your an idiot, they have tried your a racist, now its your a Nickelback fan....
Donald Trump has been called a lot of things in his time, but rarely have his critics stooped quite as low as this.
At a rally in South Carolina last week, a Trump aide removed a handwritten sign from a man in the crowd after it was noticed it bore an egregious claim: Trump likes Nickelback.
Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter account “hack” was the result of a staffer leaving his account open on a hostel computer
Top security there...
They really don't have a clue do they? I wonder how many Labour staffers have access to the JC Twitter account. It should be set up on maybe two phones, that have no other Twitter accounts on, have strong passwords and that wipe themselves after 10 wrong passwords.
Guido found a Tory council leader yesterday who made a big boob on Twitter too.
Who is doing information security training and social media awareness for the political parties, seriously?
@Plato_Says we, could go into business doing training for these muppets!
Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter account “hack” was the result of a staffer leaving his account open on a hostel computer
Top security there...
They really don't have a clue do they? I wonder how many Labour staffers have access to the JC Twitter account. It should be set up on maybe two phones, that have no other Twitter accounts on, have strong passwords and that wipe themselves after 10 wrong passwords.
Guido found a Tory council leader yesterday who made a big boob on Twitter too.
Who is doing information security training and social media awareness for the political parties, seriously?
@Plato_Says we, could go into business doing training for these muppets!
The Russians and Chinese must piss themselves at these idiots...
Let's rephrase that. Your employer is allowed to monitor what you do with their computer. Perfectly normal in any regulated industry or data-sensitive company. I've used this lovely piece of software before - it logs keystrokes and takes a screenshot every few seconds that can be played back as a video. Scary to most people who don't know what's possible. http://www.spector360.com
If I were still running a business or agency I would have that software installed on all the company PCs and would make sure that all employees knew it and that I would be monitoring their computer use. The amount of paid time wasted while employees firkle around on the internet for their own amusement is phenomenal eliminating it would, in some workplaces, enable massive improvements in productivity.
I have just had an email from Google+ asking me if I know three named people and inviting me to "add" them. As it happens I do know all three people but not directly:
1. The nickname of a gaming chum in Australia. I do not know his real name and the only contact I have had with him is through Steam (I bought him a steam game for Christmas) and TeamSpeak.
2. The real name of a chap in the Netherlands with whom I have exchanged a few emails using my gmail account
3. The real name of a person I was on a course with ten years ago and who is on my phone's address book but with whom I have had no contact in nearly a decade.
I have never actually used my google+ account.
So how in Gods name have Google come up with these accurate connections?
I have had a similar experience with FaceBook. I created an account because I mistakenly thought I had to for something I was doing and the wretched programme immediately came up with an accurate list of people I do actually know. Even now, months later and despite the fact that I have never used my account, I regularly get an email from FaceBook asking me if I know such and such a person and usually I do.
1. Is your Steam account linked to your Gmail account?
2. You used Gmail.
3. Do you have an Android phone?
Max,
1. No I use a different email address for steam not the Gmail one
2. OK, explains it but not sure I like the idea.
3. Yes I do and the supplier is Vodaphone.
Does the friend have his Steam account linked to Gmail?
Android is a Google product, they data mine your phone book to make possible connections. The person in question probably has their Gmail account linked to their phone number.
Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter account “hack” was the result of a staffer leaving his account open on a hostel computer
Top security there...
It's no wonder there's a reluctance to share information with Corbyn in security briefings. That, and his, and McDonnell's obvious affiliation with those who wish to do us harm.
I would be surprised if there isn't a security file on Corbyn and McDonnell. And there is an obvious question to be asked about some of those Cage people which I'm sure PB'ers will be able to work out for themselves.
A security file? McDonnell probably has his own MI5 field team following him around after photos like that! Corbyn would have been told that a 'perk' of his new job is the government-provided car, just so there's always someone who knows where he is.
Mr. Eagles, surely "my friend, who is not me, will also start applying for early morning paper rounds too"?
Edited extra bit: more seriously, I hope you manage to diminish the loss or even make it green.
Thank you. I did very well in 2012 and stuck to the same principles as last time but the Americans seem to have changed.
Well they seem able to change their mind very quickly. At least you aren't balls deep on Carson. "The field" is still more likely to win than the Donald too !
Could this be finally the thing to sink Trump's campaign. They have tried your an idiot, they have tried your a racist, now its your a Nickelback fan....
Donald Trump has been called a lot of things in his time, but rarely have his critics stooped quite as low as this.
At a rally in South Carolina last week, a Trump aide removed a handwritten sign from a man in the crowd after it was noticed it bore an egregious claim: Trump likes Nickelback.
Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter account “hack” was the result of a staffer leaving his account open on a hostel computer
Top security there...
It's no wonder there's a reluctance to share information with Corbyn in security briefings. That, and his, and McDonnell's obvious affiliation with those who wish to do us harm.
I would be surprised if there isn't a security file on Corbyn and McDonnell. And there is an obvious question to be asked about some of those Cage people which I'm sure PB'ers will be able to work out for themselves.
A security file? McDonnell probably has his own MI5 field team following him around after photos like that! Corbyn would have been told that a 'perk' of his new job is the government-provided car, just so there's always someone who knows where he is.
The thing is McMao clearly doesn't give a shit. It isn't like he has been caught out in a secret meeting. And JJ spends plenty of weekends at Finsburys Park Mosque, who is run by an organisation that a recent government report expressed shall we say a lot of concern. Supportive of Hamas, connections to Muslim Brotherhood, the usual stuff..
Retail investment advice is not my area of speciality but my thoughts are these:-
1. There is a crying need for sensible investment advice for those who have some money to invest / savings but are not well off enough to justify the more expensive advisors. ...[snip for length]
All good points. I think that low-level advice on simply how to invest in tracker funds would do for a lot of people. There is a fair amount of statistical evidence that paying for expensive advice to be selective doesn't necessarily produce a positive return over time, and most people would probably be content to go with the market and hope it will outperform over the long term. But that simple information is not familiar to most people.
I remember when I asked my bank (RBS, then) for advice like this, they insisted on a personal discussion giving me far more information than I actually wanted - they weren't willing to answer a couple of simple questions, presumably partly as they wanted to sell me stuff and partly for fear that I'd sue them if the simple questions produced a sub-optimal answer. I understand this, but it should be possible all the same, and if the market won't do it maybe the Government's agencies should, rather like the basic pension advice.
There are two things that operate against Trump in Iowa.
1. The fact that it is a lot harder work to 'vote' than simply turning up and placing an x in a box. Trump supporters are less likely to be politically experienced, and I'm not sure he has an organisational structure in place to get his supporters to the caucuses and organise them appropriately.
2. The structure of the caucuses, where people stand in groups to show their support for candidates, tends to result in the elimination of smaller candidates. No one wants to stand in a group by themselves. You can therefore expect to see Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, etc. badly squeezed. Their votes are unlikely to go to Trump.
I would therefore sell Trump into the Iowa caucuses.
Weird, I would have thought JJ would blast the government over NHS for all the questions. Instead he is banging on about council house tenants getting a new council house.
Let's rephrase that. Your employer is allowed to monitor what you do with their computer. Perfectly normal in any regulated industry or data-sensitive company. I've used this lovely piece of software before - it logs keystrokes and takes a screenshot every few seconds that can be played back as a video. Scary to most people who don't know what's possible. http://www.spector360.com
If I were still running a business or agency I would have that software installed on all the company PCs and would make sure that all employees knew it and that I would be monitoring their computer use. The amount of paid time wasted while employees firkle around on the internet for their own amusement is phenomenal eliminating it would, in some workplaces, enable massive improvements in productivity.
Good morning all. The issue is they just time waste on their mobiles instead. It comes down to hiring the right people. Lazy folk have procrastinated since forever; it's just the methods have changed.
2. The structure of the caucuses, where people stand in groups to show their support for candidates, tends to result in the elimination of smaller candidates. No one wants to stand in a group by themselves. You can therefore expect to see Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, etc. badly squeezed.
I think this factor means that one of the above is likely to do unexpectedly well at the expense of the others, and may go on to become the de facto establishment candidate. It seems to be a lottery trying to predict which one it will be though.
Oh dear..JJ not checked his question...What a bizarre attack line by JJ, the NHS is the one thing they are winning on and he instead banging on about how the government are wrong to want to give a load of people brand new council houses, and then skewered over a question that isn't valid.
@IsabelHardman: Cameron describes Corbyn as "a Labour leader who doesn't believe in Britain"
That was just the last line. It was preceeded by saying that the labour party didn't believe in work and they had a defence policy that didn't believe in defence.
There are two things that operate against Trump in Iowa.
1. The fact that it is a lot harder work to 'vote' than simply turning up and placing an x in a box. Trump supporters are less likely to be politically experienced, and I'm not sure he has an organisational structure in place to get his supporters to the caucuses and organise them appropriately.
2. The structure of the caucuses, where people stand in groups to show their support for candidates, tends to result in the elimination of smaller candidates. No one wants to stand in a group by themselves. You can therefore expect to see Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, etc. badly squeezed. Their votes are unlikely to go to Trump.
I would therefore sell Trump into the Iowa caucuses.
Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, etc have already been badly squeezed, their support is now down to family members and paid campaign staff.
Let's rephrase that. Your employer is allowed to monitor what you do with their computer. Perfectly normal in any regulated industry or data-sensitive company. I've used this lovely piece of software before - it logs keystrokes and takes a screenshot every few seconds that can be played back as a video. Scary to most people who don't know what's possible. http://www.spector360.com
If I were still running a business or agency I would have that software installed on all the company PCs and would make sure that all employees knew it and that I would be monitoring their computer use. The amount of paid time wasted while employees firkle around on the internet for their own amusement is phenomenal eliminating it would, in some workplaces, enable massive improvements in productivity.
Good morning all. The issue is they just time waste on their mobiles instead. It comes down to hiring the right people. Lazy folk have procrastinated since forever; it's just the methods have changed.
Right. Imo you should be able to tell whether people are diligent or not without such methods.
I do find this attitude from the likes of JJ very weird, where any prospect of ever having to move for anything is just the most outrageous and impossible thing. We have a million Poles who have traveled here for a better life and the vast vast majority have managed to fit into the UK, find work, have kids, set up businesses etc etc etc. But JJ thinks that people already here couldn't possibly move a few miles down the road for a better house, as it would destroy their whole life.
It is like the people screaming at IDS when he suggested that people look for work 15-30 miles from their homes, in Cardiff, as there were jobs going there. And we got all this guff about people not being able to manage to do that.
To your Mateusz's of this world must be the most laughable suggestion that it is not possible.
I love it when people say they were 'hacked'. Do they mean that their password was 'password', they left their phone at a bar or they were just upset at getting caught looking at boobs..?
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=438UKM1Av1g
He's been happy to spend decades supporting mixing with such people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-35297396
But it could be transferred almost verbatim to the contemporary Green Party.
@philnmarks @WikiGuido mohammed, mohammed, mohammed, john, mohammed and mohammed.
well it made me laugh...
However, with Trump polling so well in all the early states as well as nationally (and having done so for half a year now), it's difficult to see far beyond him.
Retail investment advice is not my area of speciality but my thoughts are these:-
1. There is a crying need for sensible investment advice for those who have some money to invest / savings but are not well off enough to justify the more expensive advisors.
2. People need to be able to trust their advisors. That is not just dependant on the individual advisors but on the reputation of the organisation. Santander has not had the best reputation in the past for customer care - trying to get past their IT is a challenge - but that does not necessarily mean the advisors are no good.
3. The costs associated with giving good investment advice are high, which is why the market has tended to focus in recent years on higher end clients.
4. I'm not at all sure that the market has yet found a good model for giving advice to the vast majority who are not in that position.
5. In some ways the whole retail banking model is broken: banks have high costs, customers don't trust them very much, they want them and need them but also want it to be done at low cost; they also need good quality advice but banks have rather trashed their USP in relation to being trusted advisors.
5. Customers need to understand that if you pay for the advice you are in charge. If you allow your advisor to be paid by someone else there will inevitably be the potential for a conflict of interest. There are ways of addressing this of course. But you don't get something for nothing. People need to be prepared to pay for good financial advice as they would for good legal advice or a good builder or electrician or dentist or whatever.
7. How Santander remunerates those advisors is key: if they're paid on the basis of sales, there is the potential for mis-selling. How they are trained, how rewarded and what disclosures are made to customers will need to be carefully considered.
I'm sure @Charles will have views on this, if he's around.
I'm going for Land of Hope and Glory, then I Vow to thee my country.
I detest Jerusalem.
A man from Central Casting with no charisma.
Last prices matched;
Rubio 3.3
Trump 3.05
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664938
Top security there...
The repubs used their response to the State of the Union to ambush Trump.
I have just had an email from Google+ asking me if I know three named people and inviting me to "add" them. As it happens I do know all three people but not directly:
1. The nickname of a gaming chum in Australia. I do not know his real name and the only contact I have had with him is through Steam (I bought him a steam game for Christmas) and TeamSpeak.
2. The real name of a chap in the Netherlands with whom I have exchanged a few emails using my gmail account
3. The real name of a person I was on a course with ten years ago and who is on my phone's address book but with whom I have had no contact in nearly a decade.
I have never actually used my google+ account.
So how in Gods name have Google come up with these accurate connections?
I have had a similar experience with FaceBook. I created an account because I mistakenly thought I had to for something I was doing and the wretched programme immediately came up with an accurate list of people I do actually know. Even now, months later and despite the fact that I have never used my account, I regularly get an email from FaceBook asking me if I know such and such a person and usually I do.
The secondary point is why the PLP even begins to tolerate such behaviour.
The tertiary point is that all this demonstrates why the whole shooting match is totally unfit for public consumption.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/01/owen-smith-interview-it-would-be-incredible-honour-and-privilege-be-labour
Remember that time we went to Scotland and tried a 3000 calorie Munchy Box? https://t.co/NMnnvchKX6 https://t.co/QF8RlenSa8
As Richard Nabavi says, caveat emptor !
Perfectly normal in any regulated industry or data-sensitive company.
I've used this lovely piece of software before - it logs keystrokes and takes a screenshot every few seconds that can be played back as a video. Scary to most people who don't know what's possible. http://www.spector360.com
2. You used Gmail.
3. Do you have an Android phone?
More appropriate would be "Life on Mars" for the content and comment on England in the 1970s.
Now the workers
have struck for fame
'Cause Lennon's on sale again
Seriously, Land of Hope and Glory or I Vow to thee my country.
What should he do to get himself out of his very large reds? As he's now very worried the buggers are going to choose him.
Hope Ted Cruz wins Iowa and then back Trump before New Hampshire ?
Of course this strategy won't work if Trump wins Iowa, but Ted Cruz seems well organised there.
1. No I use a different email address for steam not the Gmail one
2. OK, explains it but not sure I like the idea.
3. Yes I do and the supplier is Vodaphone.
Donald Trump has been called a lot of things in his time, but rarely have his critics stooped quite as low as this.
At a rally in South Carolina last week, a Trump aide removed a handwritten sign from a man in the crowd after it was noticed it bore an egregious claim: Trump likes Nickelback.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-politics/12093773/Donald-Trump-faces-accusations-that-hes-a-Nickelback-fan.html
Guido found a Tory council leader yesterday who made a big boob on Twitter too.
Who is doing information security training and social media awareness for the political parties, seriously?
@Plato_Says we, could go into business doing training for these muppets!
http://www.cityam.com/232234/london-mayoral-election-2016-exclusive-new-poll-shows-goldsmith-leads-khan-by-39-per-cent-among-london-businesses?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
*With businesses.
Edited extra bit: more seriously, I hope you manage to diminish the loss or even make it green.
Android is a Google product, they data mine your phone book to make possible connections. The person in question probably has their Gmail account linked to their phone number.
We'll see how 2016 goes. I hope Ferrari do well. Not just for a real title race, but so I can use the headline "The Horse Awakens".
https://youtu.be/_1hgVcNzvzY
Paul Brand VERIFIED ACCOUNT
@PaulBrandITV
Understand there'll be a very personal announcement from a very senior MP this afternoon. Wishing them all the best and leaving it to them.
Sounds like a illness.
NHS strike?
I remember when I asked my bank (RBS, then) for advice like this, they insisted on a personal discussion giving me far more information than I actually wanted - they weren't willing to answer a couple of simple questions, presumably partly as they wanted to sell me stuff and partly for fear that I'd sue them if the simple questions produced a sub-optimal answer. I understand this, but it should be possible all the same, and if the market won't do it maybe the Government's agencies should, rather like the basic pension advice.
1. The fact that it is a lot harder work to 'vote' than simply turning up and placing an x in a box. Trump supporters are less likely to be politically experienced, and I'm not sure he has an organisational structure in place to get his supporters to the caucuses and organise them appropriately.
2. The structure of the caucuses, where people stand in groups to show their support for candidates, tends to result in the elimination of smaller candidates. No one wants to stand in a group by themselves. You can therefore expect to see Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, etc. badly squeezed. Their votes are unlikely to go to Trump.
I would therefore sell Trump into the Iowa caucuses.
Shelter - they provide shelter to how many people?
http://order-order.com/2016/01/13/tory-boob-i-was-hacked/
Good fortune that Scotland voted No, or they couldn't have bought a ticket?
It is like the people screaming at IDS when he suggested that people look for work 15-30 miles from their homes, in Cardiff, as there were jobs going there. And we got all this guff about people not being able to manage to do that.
To your Mateusz's of this world must be the most laughable suggestion that it is not possible.