politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could take New Hampshire with just 29% because opposi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could take New Hampshire with just 29% because opposition to him is split amongst so many opponents
The big political betting story over the next few weeks is going to be the fight for the Republican nomination in the first states to decide. In Iowa, with it caucuses where people vote at precinct meetings it’s looking pretty good for Ted Cruz who is strong favourite.
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FIRST...A new day and I presume yet another JJ inspired Labour disaster.0
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Josias jessop? What's he done?
meanwhile a (peripherally) mao-inspired cock-up..
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/07/china-share-trading-halted-after-market-plunges-7-in-opening-minutes0 -
I do hope Keith Vaz is going to be appointed to the Shadow Cabinet......FrancisUrquhart said:FIRST...A new day and I presume yet another JJ inspired Labour disaster.
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I do many things. I control the vertical. I devour the horizontal. Jeremy Corbyn and David Cameron are my puppets, moving to my orders. (*) I vet and approve all comments on this site - if you ever fail to post, blame me. If your Internet goes down, one of my agents has pulled the plug. If it's raining, it's due to my deal with the Rain Gods (I've had a bit of a downer with the Northern Powerhouse the last month).dugarbandier said:Josias jessop? What's he done?
meanwhile a (peripherally) mao-inspired cock-up..
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/07/china-share-trading-halted-after-market-plunges-7-in-opening-minutes
I control everything. Mwuhahahahaha.
(*) I obviously don't bother with Farron.0 -
Or they might be referring to Jihadi Jez ...
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On topic, this is not too surprising. Trump is a marmite candidate, both to Republicans and to the electorate at large. What the polls don't show - so what we should be wary of reading across - is whether Trump polls better or worse with Democrat-leaning voters than Cruz or Rubio, with all the implications that holds for the general election.
One thing that's perhaps noteworthy is that while for Bush and Rubio there are just 9% and 8% undecided in the head-to-head figures respectively, for Cruz that jumps to 15%: he too has no small number of Republicans who aren't enamoured of him. Cruz's poor performance in the three-way polls is also revealing, suggesting that even if he does win Iowa (not a foregone conclusion nearly four weeks out), he'll struggle to build on that come NH, even if other candidates pull out, and even with the momentum that Iowa would give him. With Trump still well clear in S Carolina too (albeit with a largish Carson vote yet to disperse), the Donald remains the man to beat.
As an aside, how nice to see such innovative polling.0 -
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I expect they'll react in the same calm, measured, respectful-of-others fashion we saw from the Nationalists when the tiny flaws in their grand plans were pointed out......SouthamObserver said:0 -
Shock horror people have a different opinion as to what our relationship with the EU will be.SouthamObserver said:0 -
"Different" isn't such a big problem.MP_SE said:
Shock horror people have a different opinion as to what our relationship with the EU will be.SouthamObserver said:
"Contradictory" is
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So let's get this right, Remain says the Leave campaign is wrong, ok I get it.SouthamObserver said:
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Its a point I have been making on here repeatedly. Unless Leave can hammer out a clear, coherent alternative on which they can be consistent they will not even be at the races.SouthamObserver said:
Personally, I would favour membership of the EEA with what amounts to an associate membership of the EU. If that were the answer, however, that means conceding that there will be very little change on immigration which is a touch button issue for many on the Out side.
It also involves us accepting that EU policy will continue to evolve with minimal input from us and that policy, in so far as it relates to the Single Market will regulate our terms of trade with the EU. There is a risk, for example, that without the impetus that the UK brings the single market in services will simply not develop in the EU in the way that we want it to.
My concern remains that unless the issue of EZ dominance of QMV is resolved this may well happen anyway so the price of the EU sticking its undemocratic nose into a wide range of issues which are not related to the single market is not worth paying.
This is a complex and finely balanced decision. The chances of the public debate on these issues being sufficiently nuanced to explain the various implications is of course approaching nil.0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC0
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It's a big problem for leave. I'd feel much more comfortable about voting for 'leave' if we actually had a good idea of what that would mean. Instead, I fear that we'd end up spending the next few years after a 'leave' vote arguing about it. And in the process pi**ing off our neighbours, with whom we need to maintain good relations.MP_SE said:
Shock horror people have a different opinion as to what our relationship with the EU will be.SouthamObserver said:
This concern is only partially alleviated by the fact that the shape of the EU if we remain is not exactly certain either.
Leave's incompetence in not coming up with firm - or even consistent - answers to such obvious questions does not bode well.0 -
Leave? Where to? Is the obvious question.CarlottaVance said:
"Different" isn't such a big problem.MP_SE said:
Shock horror people have a different opinion as to what our relationship with the EU will be.SouthamObserver said:
"Contradictory" is
We would no more be able to dictate terms to the rEU than indy-Scotland could dictate terms to the rUK.0 -
Good luck explaining that to 99% of the population.DavidL said:
Its a point I have been making on here repeatedly. Unless Leave can hammer out a clear, coherent alternative on which they can be consistent they will not even be at the races.SouthamObserver said:
Personally, I would favour membership of the EEA with what amounts to an associate membership of the EU. If that were the answer, however, that means conceding that there will be very little change on immigration which is a touch button issue for many on the Out side.
It also involves us accepting that EU policy will continue to evolve with minimal input from us and that policy, in so far as it relates to the Single Market will regulate our terms of trade with the EU. There is a risk, for example, that without the impetus that the UK brings the single market in services will simply not develop in the EU in the way that we want it to.
My concern remains that unless the issue of EZ dominance of QMV is resolved this may well happen anyway so the price of the EU sticking its undemocratic nose into a wide range of issues which are not related to the single market is not worth paying.
This is a complex and finely balanced decision. The chances of the public debate on these issues being sufficiently nuanced to explain the various implications is of course approaching nil.
The referendum is about sovereignty, free trade and controlling our borders, all things out of our control whilst we're in the EU. You clearly look into things very deeply, an overwhelming majority doesn't. Remain is in danger of over analysing a very straightforward scenario.
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No - Remain is saying that Leave has no coherent message on what happens if the vote goes its way.blackburn63 said:
So let's get this right, Remain says the Leave campaign is wrong, ok I get it.SouthamObserver said:
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So what is the post-Leave scenario?blackburn63 said:
Good luck explaining that to 99% of the population.DavidL said:
Its a point I have been making on here repeatedly. Unless Leave can hammer out a clear, coherent alternative on which they can be consistent they will not even be at the races.SouthamObserver said:
Personally, I would favour membership of the EEA with what amounts to an associate membership of the EU. If that were the answer, however, that means conceding that there will be very little change on immigration which is a touch button issue for many on the Out side.
It also involves us accepting that EU policy will continue to evolve with minimal input from us and that policy, in so far as it relates to the Single Market will regulate our terms of trade with the EU. There is a risk, for example, that without the impetus that the UK brings the single market in services will simply not develop in the EU in the way that we want it to.
My concern remains that unless the issue of EZ dominance of QMV is resolved this may well happen anyway so the price of the EU sticking its undemocratic nose into a wide range of issues which are not related to the single market is not worth paying.
This is a complex and finely balanced decision. The chances of the public debate on these issues being sufficiently nuanced to explain the various implications is of course approaching nil.
The referendum is about sovereignty, free trade and controlling our borders, all things out of our control whilst we're in the EU. You clearly look into things very deeply, an overwhelming majority doesn't. Remain is in danger of over analysing a very straightforward scenario.
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No.blackburn63 said:
So let's get this right, Remain says the Leave campaign is wrong, ok I get it.SouthamObserver said:
'Leave' haven't got a position on what 'Leave' is.0 -
Khan does seem to be making all the running. The Goldsmith campaign is currently almost invisible.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
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Ah, but the Nats didn't think that, did they?foxinsoxuk said:
Leave? Where to? Is the obvious question.CarlottaVance said:
"Different" isn't such a big problem.MP_SE said:
Shock horror people have a different opinion as to what our relationship with the EU will be.SouthamObserver said:
"Contradictory" is
We would no more be able to dictate terms to the rEU than indy-Scotland could dictate terms to the rUK.
Recall how Cameron would be 'forced' to debate Salmond?
How the UK would 'have to' share the £?
So much promising of that which was not within their gift.....0 -
Nice morning for a run....0
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We trade freely with who we wish to, make our own laws and control our own borders.SouthamObserver said:
So what is the post-Leave scenario?blackburn63 said:
Good luck explaining that to 99% of the population.DavidL said:
Its a point I have been making on here repeatedly. Unless Leave can hammer out a clear, coherent alternative on which they can be consistent they will not even be at the races.SouthamObserver said:
Personally, I would favour membership of the EEA with what amounts to an associate membership of the EU. If that were the answer, however, that means conceding that there will be very little change on immigration which is a touch button issue for many on the Out side.
It also involves us accepting that EU policy will continue to evolve with minimal input from us and that policy, in so far as it relates to the Single Market will regulate our terms of trade with the EU. There is a risk, for example, that without the impetus that the UK brings the single market in services will simply not develop in the EU in the way that we want it to.
My concern remains that unless the issue of EZ dominance of QMV is resolved this may well happen anyway so the price of the EU sticking its undemocratic nose into a wide range of issues which are not related to the single market is not worth paying.
This is a complex and finely balanced decision. The chances of the public debate on these issues being sufficiently nuanced to explain the various implications is of course approaching nil.
The referendum is about sovereignty, free trade and controlling our borders, all things out of our control whilst we're in the EU. You clearly look into things very deeply, an overwhelming majority doesn't. Remain is in danger of over analysing a very straightforward scenario.
Now if that's not want you wish for that's fine, but Remain is over complicating a very straightforward scenario, deliberately some may say.
We buy cars from Germany, we sell arms to Saudi, we decide who comes here, we don't give votes to prisoners etc etc. There is absolutely no reason why we should spend £billions a year propping up weak economies in the EU, we have far better things to do with the money.
Ask the flood victims up North.
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So we are not going to join the EEA?blackburn63 said:
We trade freely with who we wish to, make our own laws and control our own borders.SouthamObserver said:
So what is the post-Leave scenario?blackburn63 said:
Good luck explaining that to 99% of the population.DavidL said:
Its a point I have been making on here repeatedly. Unless Leave can hammer out a clear, coherent alternative on which they can be consistent they will not even be at the races.SouthamObserver said:
Personally, I would favour membership of the EEA with what amounts to an associate membership of the EU. If that were the answer, however, that means conceding that there will be very little change on immigration which is a touch button issue for many on the Out side.
It also involves us accepting that EU policy will continue to evolve with minimal input from us and that policy, in so far as it relates to the Single Market will regulate our terms of trade with the EU. There is a risk, for example, that without the impetus that the UK brings the single market in services will simply not develop in the EU in the way that we want it to.
My concern remains that unless the issue of EZ dominance of QMV is resolved this may well happen anyway so the price of the EU sticking its undemocratic nose into a wide range of issues which are not related to the single market is not worth paying.
This is a complex and finely balanced decision. The chances of the public debate on these issues being sufficiently nuanced to explain the various implications is of course approaching nil.
The referendum is about sovereignty, free trade and controlling our borders, all things out of our control whilst we're in the EU. You clearly look into things very deeply, an overwhelming majority doesn't. Remain is in danger of over analysing a very straightforward scenario.
Now if that's not want you wish for that's fine, but Remain is over complicating a very straightforward scenario, deliberately some may say.
We buy cars from Germany, we sell arms to Saudi, we decide who comes here, we don't give votes to prisoners etc etc. There is absolutely no reason why we should spend £billions a year propping up weak economies in the EU, we have far better things to do with the money.
Ask the flood victims up North.
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Yes it has, but because you want to remain you try to traduce it.CarlottaVance said:
No.blackburn63 said:
So let's get this right, Remain says the Leave campaign is wrong, ok I get it.SouthamObserver said:
'Leave' haven't got a position on what 'Leave' is.
We don't need to be part of a 28 member federalist bureaucracy in order to run an efficient nation, it's very straightforward.
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Oh I agree that the vast majority on both sides will not understand what they are talking about. But there is nothing "straightforward" about either option. Remain have to accept that the EU is never a final, fixed offer. It will continue to evolve as it has done since it was founded. In many important areas this will involve ever closer union, at least for the EZ members.blackburn63 said:
Good luck explaining that to 99% of the population.DavidL said:SouthamObserver said:
The referendum is about sovereignty, free trade and controlling our borders, all things out of our control whilst we're in the EU. You clearly look into things very deeply, an overwhelming majority doesn't. Remain is in danger of over analysing a very straightforward scenario.
Similarly, it is completely dishonest to claim that any State has full sovereignty in a 19th century sense anymore. The US is bound by its NAFTA and WTO obligations and will soon be bound by new commitments from the free trade arrangement with the EU, as will we of course. There really is no such thing as free trade. There is managed trade between and within certain blocs which requires compliance with the rules within and between these blocs. And the conditions of membership of the EEA, for example, do not allow us to fully control our borders.0 -
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That does look to be a weak link in the Leave case.
Its a point I have been making on here repeatedly. Unless Leave can hammer out a clear, coherent alternative on which they can be consistent they will not even be at the races.
Personally, I would favour membership of the EEA with what amounts to an associate membership of the EU. If that were the answer, however, that means conceding that there will be very little change on immigration which is a touch button issue for many on the Out side.
It also involves us accepting that EU policy will continue to evolve with minimal input from us and that policy, in so far as it relates to the Single Market will regulate our terms of trade with the EU. There is a risk, for example, that without the impetus that the UK brings the single market in services will simply not develop in the EU in the way that we want it to.
My concern remains that unless the issue of EZ dominance of QMV is resolved this may well happen anyway so the price of the EU sticking its undemocratic nose into a wide range of issues which are not related to the single market is not worth paying.
This is a complex and finely balanced decision. The chances of the public debate on these issues being sufficiently nuanced to explain the various implications is of course approaching nil.
Good luck explaining that to 99% of the population.
The referendum is about sovereignty, free trade and controlling our borders, all things out of our control whilst we're in the EU. You clearly look into things very deeply, an overwhelming majority doesn't. Remain is in danger of over analysing a very straightforward scenario.
So what is the post-Leave scenario?
We trade freely with who we wish to, make our own laws and control our own borders.
Now if that's not want you wish for that's fine, but Remain is over complicating a very straightforward scenario, deliberately some may say.
We buy cars from Germany, we sell arms to Saudi, we decide who comes here, we don't give votes to prisoners etc etc. There is absolutely no reason why we should spend £billions a year propping up weak economies in the EU, we have far better things to do with the money.
Ask the flood victims up North.
So we are not going to join the EEA?
No idea, don't care, 99% of the electorate have never heard of it. We don't need to be part of anything in order to buy and sell things people want.
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us. I don't need to hold hands with the Maltese, Croatians and Slovenians to feel confident.
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But doesn't "BSE" still have resonances of cows burning in fields?SouthamObserver said:
Or was that something else?
Shouldn't they rebrand?0 -
I remain of the view that he will prove to be a weak candidate and that he will lose.SouthamObserver said:
Khan does seem to be making all the running. The Goldsmith campaign is currently almost invisible.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
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So under what circumstances would you vote Leave?DavidL said:
Oh I agree that the vast majority on both sides will not understand what they are talking about. But there is nothing "straightforward" about either option. Remain have to accept that the EU is never a final, fixed offer. It will continue to evolve as it has done since it was founded. In many important areas this will involve ever closer union, at least for the EZ members.blackburn63 said:
Good luck explaining that to 99% of the population.DavidL said:SouthamObserver said:
The referendum is about sovereignty, free trade and controlling our borders, all things out of our control whilst we're in the EU. You clearly look into things very deeply, an overwhelming majority doesn't. Remain is in danger of over analysing a very straightforward scenario.
Similarly, it is completely dishonest to claim that any State has full sovereignty in a 19th century sense anymore. The US is bound by its NAFTA and WTO obligations and will soon be bound by new commitments from the free trade arrangement with the EU, as will we of course. There really is no such thing as free trade. There is managed trade between and within certain blocs which requires compliance with the rules within and between these blocs. And the conditions of membership of the EEA, for example, do not allow us to fully control our borders.
The answer to that question to plenty on here is None. Good for them but please don't patronise those of us that have complete confidence in us as a nation to thrive without the hindrance of bailing out the Eurozone to the tune of £billions.
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I would vote leave under the current circumstances, where it is obvious that the EZ will integrate further and where the EZ bloc will make QMV a farce because they will have a built in majority. Unless Cameron can fix that there is no point in us remaining members of a very expensive club.blackburn63 said:
So under what circumstances would you vote Leave?DavidL said:
Oh I agree that the vast majority on both sides will not understand what they are talking about. But there is nothing "straightforward" about either option. Remain have to accept that the EU is never a final, fixed offer. It will continue to evolve as it has done since it was founded. In many important areas this will involve ever closer union, at least for the EZ members.blackburn63 said:
Good luck explaining that to 99% of the population.DavidL said:SouthamObserver said:
The referendum is about sovereignty, free trade and controlling our borders, all things out of our control whilst we're in the EU. You clearly look into things very deeply, an overwhelming majority doesn't. Remain is in danger of over analysing a very straightforward scenario.
Similarly, it is completely dishonest to claim that any State has full sovereignty in a 19th century sense anymore. The US is bound by its NAFTA and WTO obligations and will soon be bound by new commitments from the free trade arrangement with the EU, as will we of course. There really is no such thing as free trade. There is managed trade between and within certain blocs which requires compliance with the rules within and between these blocs. And the conditions of membership of the EEA, for example, do not allow us to fully control our borders.
The answer to that question to plenty on here is None. Good for them but please don't patronise those of us that have complete confidence in us as a nation to thrive without the hindrance of bailing out the Eurozone to the tune of £billions.0 -
@blackburn63 - you are going to have to accept that people who are currently undecided about how to vote in the referendum are going to ask questions about the different positions each side takes. Me asking you whether the UK will join the EEA if we vote leave does not mean I lack faith in "us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world", it means I am not sure what people like you are asking me to vote for.
If we join the EEA we do not have control over our borders. But it seems that some people on the Leave side are proposing that we do join, while others are saying we should not. So what would I be voting for if I voted Leave?
Likewise, free trade agreements are the result of negotiation between parties. Why would the UK - a country of 60 million - get a better deal from the US or China for British businesses than the EU - a bloc of over 450 million people, containing 4 G8 economies?
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That's not actually a question for the Leave campaign. After all, if we vote to leave the EU the Leave campaign won't magically become our government (unlike in Scotland where, presumably, the Holyrood Executive would have negotiated independence and then become the first government of an independent Scotland).SouthamObserver said:So we are not going to join the EEA?
What happens in the event of a vote to leave would be down to the government of the day. It would be up to them to determine the best course of action. Maybe that would be to negotiate to stay in the EEA, maybe it wouldn't.
Having said all of that, I do think this is an issue for the Leave campaign. The question is, how much of an issue for the Remain campaign is the accusation that a vote to stay in the EU will give future governments carte blanche to take us further in to the EU?0 -
Er, we can only "freely" trade with countries who want to have a free trade agreement with us...blackburn63 said:o
No idea, don't care, 99% of the electorate have never heard of it. We don't need to be part of anything in order to buy and sell things people want.
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us. I don't need to hold hands with the Maltese, Croatians and Slovenians to feel confident.
Or are we going to become a nation of smugglers?
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A serious question for the Remainers on here:
Do you really think that if we leave the EU the Germans will stop selling us cars and the French wine? Do you really think that the English speaking City of London will uproot to Gdansk?
Do you honestly believe that emerging markets across the globe won't want to trade freely with us?
If you can pick those apart coherently then Remain gets 90% of the vote.0 -
Yep, that is the other side of the coin. If we vote Remain are we effectively signing up for further and deeper integration/ What guarantees do we have that we can opt out of ever closer union and so on? What would really prevent us from being the freely trading nation in control of its borders that the Leave side talk about?tlg86 said:
That's not actually a question for the Leave campaign. After all, if we vote to leave the EU the Leave campaign won't magically become our government (unlike in Scotland where, presumably, the Holyrood Executive would have negotiated independence and then become the first government of an independent Scotland).SouthamObserver said:So we are not going to join the EEA?
What happens in the event of a vote to leave would be down to the government of the day. It would be up to them to determine the best course of action. Maybe that would be to negotiate to stay in the EEA, maybe it wouldn't.
Having said all of that, I do think this is an issue for the Leave campaign. The question is, how much of an issue for the Remain campaign is the accusation that a vote to stay in the EU will give future governments carte blanche to take us further in to the EU?
Both sides need t accept they have hard questions to answer. And that they do need to find answers.
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Non-issuetlg86 said:The question is, how much of an issue for the Remain campaign is the accusation that a vote to stay in the EU will give future governments carte blanche to take us further in to the EU?
There is already legislation on the books that further integration requires further referenda0 -
Here's an idea, why don't we negotiate free trade deals in the way Iceland have with China. Because we can't at the moment.alex. said:
Er, we can only "freely" trade with countries who want to have a free trade agreement with us...blackburn63 said:o
No idea, don't care, 99% of the electorate have never heard of it. We don't need to be part of anything in order to buy and sell things people want.
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us. I don't need to hold hands with the Maltese, Croatians and Slovenians to feel confident.
Or are we going to become a nation of smugglers?
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Where does the EU go if remain wins, does it become a larger federal state, or is it going to evolve as a multinational federation?
Cameron wants reforms, but reform can mean many things. Is the EU going to reform but not necessarily to our advantage.
Both sides are offering pigs in pokes.
If Trump wins NH, that debate on debarring him will look somewhat sillier.0 -
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !0 -
The problem isn't countries wanting to sell us stuff. The problem is the terms under which countries buy stuff off us.blackburn63 said:A serious question for the Remainers on here:
Do you really think that if we leave the EU the Germans will stop selling us cars and the French wine? Do you really think that the English speaking City of London will uproot to Gdansk?
Do you honestly believe that emerging markets across the globe won't want to trade freely with us?
If you can pick those apart coherently then Remain gets 90% of the vote.0 -
So do you think that if we vote to stay in that isn't necessarily the end of the issue? Suppose we vote to stay in and then a few years later it becomes clear that we either sign up for further integration in line with what the EZ wants or we leave. Would a referendum on that further integration effectively be another in/out referendum?Scott_P said:
Non-issuetlg86 said:The question is, how much of an issue for the Remain campaign is the accusation that a vote to stay in the EU will give future governments carte blanche to take us further in to the EU?
There is already legislation on the books that further integration requires further referenda0 -
Iceland have a free trade deal with China, the EU as a trading zone is shrinking, others are growing.SouthamObserver said:@blackburn63 - you are going to have to accept that people who are currently undecided about how to vote in the referendum are going to ask questions about the different positions each side takes. Me asking you whether the UK will join the EEA if we vote leave does not mean I lack faith in "us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world", it means I am not sure what people like you are asking me to vote for.
If we join the EEA we do not have control over our borders. But it seems that some people on the Leave side are proposing that we do join, while others are saying we should not. So what would I be voting for if I voted Leave?
Likewise, free trade agreements are the result of negotiation between parties. Why would the UK - a country of 60 million - get a better deal from the US or China for British businesses than the EU - a bloc of over 450 million people, containing 4 G8 economies?
You're muddying the waters by mentioning EEA, the fact is that while in the EU we can't control our borders, outside we have options.
Be under no illusion, an IN vote isn't for the status quo, it's for the foot on the throat.
Oh and please don't pretend you're open to persuasion, you're clearly a committed Inner, good for you, but it's a waste of everybody's time pretending you're open minded.
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You do realise that if, as an EU member, we can't negotiate deals as an individual country, then the same will be true of every individual EU member who we might want to negotiate deals with post EU-exit? So it doesn't matter whether the Germans and the French want to "sell us stuff", if Poland isn't that bothered then we're a bit screwed.blackburn63 said:
Here's an idea, why don't we negotiate free trade deals in the way Iceland have with China. Because we can't at the moment.alex. said:
Er, we can only "freely" trade with countries who want to have a free trade agreement with us...blackburn63 said:o
No idea, don't care, 99% of the electorate have never heard of it. We don't need to be part of anything in order to buy and sell things people want.
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us. I don't need to hold hands with the Maltese, Croatians and Slovenians to feel confident.
Or are we going to become a nation of smugglers?0 -
Major boost for the leave campaign
@Herald_Editor: Gordon Brown says a vote to leave the EU would be a 'betrayal of our history' https://t.co/sYAYqsnbTA0 -
Wrong.alex. said:
The problem isn't countries wanting to sell us stuff. The problem is the terms under which countries buy stuff off us.blackburn63 said:A serious question for the Remainers on here:
Do you really think that if we leave the EU the Germans will stop selling us cars and the French wine? Do you really think that the English speaking City of London will uproot to Gdansk?
Do you honestly believe that emerging markets across the globe won't want to trade freely with us?
If you can pick those apart coherently then Remain gets 90% of the vote.
If ANYBODY sells the right stuff at the right price people will trade, it's what has happened for centuries, walk down any high street.
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Khan widens his lead in latest Mayoral poll. http://www.lbc.co.uk/sadiq-khan-winning-race-to-be-london-mayor-poll-1226900
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Good morning all.
It looks like long held problems are coming home to roost re the economy, and not only in Britain:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35249317
Marks and Spencer chief executive Marc Bolland is to step down in April, the company has said, as it announced its Christmas results.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35248628
George Osborne warns of 'dangerous cocktail' of economic risks
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35248798
Mainland Chinese shares stop trading after 7% plunge; again.
It will be interesting to follow the markets this week.
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Not on the evidence of that video it hasn'tblackburn63 said:
Yes it hasCarlottaVance said:
No.blackburn63 said:
So let's get this right, Remain says the Leave campaign is wrong, ok I get it.SouthamObserver said:
'Leave' haven't got a position on what 'Leave' is.
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@carlminns: Random fact. Labour now have more shadow cabinet members from Islington than the whole North East0
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Oh well. We'll have to concentrate on the rest of the world then.alex. said:
You do realise that if, as an EU member, we can't negotiate deals as an individual country, then the same will be true of every individual EU member who we might want to negotiate deals with post EU-exit? So it doesn't matter whether the Germans and the French want to "sell us stuff", if Poland isn't that bothered then we're a bit screwed.blackburn63 said:
Here's an idea, why don't we negotiate free trade deals in the way Iceland have with China. Because we can't at the moment.alex. said:
Er, we can only "freely" trade with countries who want to have a free trade agreement with us...blackburn63 said:o
No idea, don't care, 99% of the electorate have never heard of it. We don't need to be part of anything in order to buy and sell things people want.
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us. I don't need to hold hands with the Maltese, Croatians and Slovenians to feel confident.
Or are we going to become a nation of smugglers?
If you are seriously suggesting that the Germans will stop selling us cars you're bonkers.
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That is indeed the logical conclusion. When the next Treaty is negotiated, probably within 5 years, it will contain integration provisions for the EZ at least. Unless our opt outs are very extensive this will trigger a requirement for a referendum here. At that point the UK has a choice, sign up to the new rules or leave.tlg86 said:
So do you think that if we vote to stay in that isn't necessarily the end of the issue? Suppose we vote to stay in and then a few years later it becomes clear that we either sign up for further integration in line with what the EZ wants or we leave. Would a referendum on that further integration effectively be another in/out referendum?Scott_P said:
Non-issuetlg86 said:The question is, how much of an issue for the Remain campaign is the accusation that a vote to stay in the EU will give future governments carte blanche to take us further in to the EU?
There is already legislation on the books that further integration requires further referenda
What is more insidious is change that happens under the existing powers without treaty change. Remain have to accept that will happen too with the helpful support of the CJE who I frankly do not trust to give impartial rulings on matters or to respect the implications of negotiated opt outs. They have a bad track record on that.0 -
Cromwell said:
Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Rubbish, Trump will win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada at which point Rubio's campaign will effectively be over and in all likelihood Hillary will then defeat Trump in the general election. The GOP establishment can no more stop the GOP base voting for Trump than the Labour establishment could stop the Labour base voting for CorbynCromwell said:Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !0 -
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......blackburn63 said:
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.
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Yes and I'm sure the dozen or so that watch it will be very concerned.CarlottaVance said:
Not on the evidence of that video it hasn'tblackburn63 said:
Yes it hasCarlottaVance said:
No.blackburn63 said:
So let's get this right, Remain says the Leave campaign is wrong, ok I get it.SouthamObserver said:
'Leave' haven't got a position on what 'Leave' is.
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david_herdson said:
'On topic, this is not too surprising. Trump is a marmite candidate, both to Republicans and to the electorate at large. What the polls don't show - so what we should be wary of reading across - is whether Trump polls better or worse with Democrat-leaning voters than Cruz or Rubio, with all the implications that holds for the general election.
One thing that's perhaps noteworthy is that while for Bush and Rubio there are just 9% and 8% undecided in the head-to-head figures respectively, for Cruz that jumps to 15%: he too has no small number of Republicans who aren't enamoured of him. Cruz's poor performance in the three-way polls is also revealing, suggesting that even if he does win Iowa (not a foregone conclusion nearly four weeks out), he'll struggle to build on that come NH, even if other candidates pull out, and even with the momentum that Iowa would give him. With Trump still well clear in S Carolina too (albeit with a largish Carson vote yet to disperse), the Donald remains the man to beat.'
Polls do show Rubio does best in the general election0 -
Good morning, everyone.
If Cruz and Trump take one win each, won't several of the others fade away? May still be good for Rubio.0 -
John Humphries channelling @Alanbrooke atm on R4.0
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Mr/Mrs Vance, there will be a referendum, you will vote IN, I will vote OUT.CarlottaVance said:
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......blackburn63 said:
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.
I have no problem with that.
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That sounds a very fair assessment of the situation. It's all well and good having to have a referendum in the event of treaty change - but if they can keep changing the rules of the game without one, then that provision is meaningless.DavidL said:
That is indeed the logical conclusion. When the next Treaty is negotiated, probably within 5 years, it will contain integration provisions for the EZ at least. Unless our opt outs are very extensive this will trigger a requirement for a referendum here. At that point the UK has a choice, sign up to the new rules or leave.tlg86 said:
So do you think that if we vote to stay in that isn't necessarily the end of the issue? Suppose we vote to stay in and then a few years later it becomes clear that we either sign up for further integration in line with what the EZ wants or we leave. Would a referendum on that further integration effectively be another in/out referendum?Scott_P said:
Non-issuetlg86 said:The question is, how much of an issue for the Remain campaign is the accusation that a vote to stay in the EU will give future governments carte blanche to take us further in to the EU?
There is already legislation on the books that further integration requires further referenda
What is more insidious is change that happens under the existing powers without treaty change. Remain have to accept that will happen too with the helpful support of the CJE who I frankly do not trust to give impartial rulings on matters or to respect the implications of negotiated opt outs. They have a bad track record on that.0 -
One day we will all wake up and realise this last few months has just been a bad dream. Labour are so fantastically awful, it cannot really be happening.. can it...0
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Meanwhile, a German interior minister [local rather than national] has an, er, 'interesting' perspective on the Cologne situation:
""What happens on the right-wing platforms and in chat rooms is at least as awful as the acts of those assaulting the women," he said. "This is poisoning the climate of our society.""
Being a racist tosser at least as bad as sexual molestation? The view of Ralf Jaeger, interior minister for North Rhine-Westphalia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-352486010 -
If we vote to remain in the EU what will our relationship look like? Exactly the same? Or will we continue to be ignored and left on the sideline? More integration?CarlottaVance said:
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......blackburn63 said:
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.0 -
Mr. 86, that supposes we have a Conservative Government. It's hard to see Labour offering one.0
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I'm going to frame your comment for posterity as a fine example of a long distance expect who views the American election through the prism of British politicsHYUFD said:Cromwell said:Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Rubbish, Trump will win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada at which point Rubio's campaign will effectively be over and in all likelihood Hillary will then defeat Trump in the general election. The GOP establishment can no more stop the GOP base voting for Trump than the Labour establishment could stop the Labour base voting for CorbynCromwell said:Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Trump likely will win NH , but Rubio will come second and THAT will be the real story out of NH ...the unification of the Establishment !..Rubio will also win Nevada !
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I was tempted to point that out, but I didn't want to be laughed at.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 86, that supposes we have a Conservative Government. It's hard to see Labour offering one.
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Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Trump will not walk it. On the assumption he probably doesn't want the gig anyway, what's the most dramatic time to pull out?
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I don't know how I'd vote yet.blackburn63 said:
Mr/Mrs Vance, there will be a referendum, you will vote IN, I will vote OUT.CarlottaVance said:
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......blackburn63 said:
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.
I have no problem with that.
If Cameron can get a reasonable deal, I'd prefer to stay - but if he can't, I'd vote 'Leave'.
But not on the basis of any of the arguments advanced - so far - by 'Leave' - like Scottish independence - I'm not opposed in principle - but I want to see a decent picture of what the alternative might look like.
Like the NATS you believe that 'leaving the EU' (Independence) is an absolute moral good and (to an extent) 'bugger the consequences'.
Not a great position from which to persuade others......-1 -
Mr. 86, it's entirely plausible that Labour could one day form a government in this country.
Mr. kle4, that could prove Pyrrhic. A Khan victory would be a major boost for Corbyn, and a London mayor who supports quotas for ethnic minorities in the workplace may not necessarily help Labour further afield.0 -
Comparing crimes of different categories (if being a racist tosser is a crime) is often difficult (such as fraud v acts of violence). In this case, however, I'd suggest he's making himself look like a complete idiot.Morris_Dancer said:Meanwhile, a German interior minister [local rather than national] has an, er, 'interesting' perspective on the Cologne situation:
""What happens on the right-wing platforms and in chat rooms is at least as awful as the acts of those assaulting the women," he said. "This is poisoning the climate of our society.""
Being a racist tosser at least as bad as sexual molestation? The view of Ralf Jaeger, interior minister for North Rhine-Westphalia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-352486010 -
Trump is about to spend $1 million a day of his own money on campaign advertising, hardly a sign he does not want itkle4 said:
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
Trump will not walk it. On the assumption he probably doesn't want the gig anyway, what's the most dramatic time to pull out?0 -
I was expecting Jezza to be entertainingly crap and full of amusing policies, but he's surpassed my wildest dreams.
I never thought we'd see Ken and Diane as principle spokesbods. And McMao's personal baggage, and Seumas, and STW on defence and free vote revenge shuffling...
Even Jezza on holiday didn't help, the infighting was just as bad.
We could have a whole thread just on the eff ups since 12th September.SquareRoot said:One day we will all wake up and realise this last few months has just been a bad dream. Labour are so fantastically awful, it cannot really be happening.. can it...
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They do, but he's nowhere meaningful in the GOP nomination race. He will struggle to be seen as a credible candidate come Super Tuesday if he hasn't even picked up a second place by then. As things stand, he's running a fairly distant third in Iowa, a distant second in NH (with many snapping at his heels), and third or fourth in both SC and Nevada. His campaign could well be over without ever taking off.HYUFD said:
Polls do show Rubio does best in the general electiondavid_herdson said:'On topic, this is not too surprising. Trump is a marmite candidate, both to Republicans and to the electorate at large. What the polls don't show - so what we should be wary of reading across - is whether Trump polls better or worse with Democrat-leaning voters than Cruz or Rubio, with all the implications that holds for the general election.
One thing that's perhaps noteworthy is that while for Bush and Rubio there are just 9% and 8% undecided in the head-to-head figures respectively, for Cruz that jumps to 15%: he too has no small number of Republicans who aren't enamoured of him. Cruz's poor performance in the three-way polls is also revealing, suggesting that even if he does win Iowa (not a foregone conclusion nearly four weeks out), he'll struggle to build on that come NH, even if other candidates pull out, and even with the momentum that Iowa would give him. With Trump still well clear in S Carolina too (albeit with a largish Carson vote yet to disperse), the Donald remains the man to beat.'
If Trump does take the nomination, Rubio might be a very good fit as running mate though.0 -
@CarlottaVance
I'm not trying to persuade anybody but I'm curious what you define as "a reasonable deal" by Cameron0 -
It could be, or Leave could turn it to their advantage: "Your future is what you make it".SouthamObserver said:0 -
eat yr cerealMP_SE said:
If we vote to remain in the EU what will our relationship look like? Exactly the same? Or will we continue to be ignored and left on the sideline? More integration?CarlottaVance said:
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......blackburn63 said:
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.0 -
FTSE 100 opens down 114 points.
See my 8:11am post for relevance.0 -
In as much as Labour is a London Party, London is a Labour city - and the Tories need an exceptional candidate (like a Boris) to win it - what possessed them to think Goldsmith had that 'star quality' is beyond me.....kle4 said:
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
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Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.0
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I think the most powerful Remain argument is that we will have to play by a set of rules we don't get any input into formulating. Rightly or wrongly that will touch a nerve.blackburn63 said:@CarlottaVance
I'm not trying to persuade anybody but I'm curious what you define as "a reasonable deal" by Cameron
Best for Leave will be the same as it was for the euro - at the end of the day staying in a growing EU is a diminution of our sovereignty.0 -
Again, rubbish, the GOP establishment tried to thrust Nelson Rockefeller on the GOP base in 1964, they failed abysmally and the base nominated Barry Goldwater. The latest poll has Rubio trailing Trump badly in Nevada and the continued presence of Ted Cruz in the race will keep opposition to Trump divided, once Trump wins South Carolina then Rubio's campaign is over, Bill Clinton won South Carolina after he got second in New Hampshire and Cruz is more likely to win there than RubioCromwell said:
I'm going to frame your comment for posterity as a fine example of a long distance expect who views the American election through the prism of British politicsHYUFD said:Cromwell said:Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Rubbish, Trump will win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada at which point Rubio's campaign will effectively be over and in all likelihood Hillary will then defeat Trump in the general election. The GOP establishment can no more stop the GOP base voting for Trump than the Labour establishment could stop the Labour base voting for CorbynCromwell said:Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Trump likely will win NH , but Rubio will come second and THAT will be the real story out of NH ...the unification of the Establishment !..Rubio will also win Nevada !0 -
Lovely weather for it
Dan Hodges
Heading up for Naked Streak. Though it may have to be renamed Naked Swim.0 -
In their defence, none of the Tory candidates had that quality. Goldsmith seems generally agreeable. But that's not enough unless Khan significantly underperforms, and I can't see that happening even at present with labour's troubles.CarlottaVance said:
In as much as Labour is a London Party, London is a Labour city - and the Tories need an exceptional candidate (like a Boris) to win it - what possessed them to think Goldsmith had that 'star quality' is beyond me.....kle4 said:
Khan is going to walk it. Goldsmith just doesn't seem o have wide appeal, and what is he going to do to get it? If it falls back on party support, he's toast.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Sadiq Khan ahead by seven points in mayoral race - up five pts since November. Source: New @YouGov poll coming out on LBC
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The UK is almost coast to coast German built cars..If anyone thinks Brexit will stop those sales then they are bonkers..and if Pino Grigio runs out then there are lots of great wines from the rest of the world we can drink..and these are just two examples of why Brexit will barely change things in terms of trade..0
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Christopher Hope
Sadly for commuters in Westminster @DPJHodges had to wear shorts for his "streak" or he could have been arrested https://t.co/W8MjCpRp9N0 -
'If we vote to remain in the EU what will our relationship look like? Exactly the same? Or will we continue to be ignored and left on the sideline? More integration?'
Why on earth would anyone need to ask this question when -
a) we have the history of the last 40 years to consider - more and more EU control over the UK
b) we have the clearly expressed wish for the future of the majority of other EU states to consider - more and more EU control over the UK
There really shouldn't be any debate about this aspect of the story. EU membership means signing up for ever closer political union - if that is what we want, then fair enough. If it isn't, we should leave.
British insistence on dodging this issue exasperates many Europeans. I've lost count of the times my business and personal contacts in other European countries have said to me something along the lines of 'if you are so unhappy with the direction of the EU, why are you in it? Everyone knows what it is all about'.0 -
Rubio has very high favourables among women in NH by a ratio of 1:2
Trump polls less than Bernie Sanders ; he only looks like a winner because the establishment have not yet picked their candidate ; furthermore , Trump already has maximum exposure as everyone in the US already knows who Trump is ...he has already hit his ceiling , while Rubio is still coming into focus , but the more that folks see of Rubio the more they like him ...he is the obvious winner to folks who actually know how to read between the lines !
The reason why Trump can get away with saying outrageous things is because all sensible voters realize he can never be president ...he is in fact just a cheerleader , a rodeo clown and court jester ! He is primarily an entertainer where crowds can live vicariously through him , unrestrained by politeness and political correctness0 -
If our deficit target is missed in 2020 and he is leader I may votevCorbyn - even with global troubles failing to meet your goal in double the time is rank incompetence,Plato_Says said:Ozzie is getting his defence in first today talking about China, oil prices et al buffeting our economic position.
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0
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Mikey Smith
This is getting a bit like the opening night of a particularly tenuous series of Celebrity Big Brother https://t.co/gnEv0qqvIN0 -
The mood music from the EU high wallahs is that there will be further integration. What is more, if the EuroZone is to be a success then further integration is more or less vital. They are also not keen on a two-speed EU, which means that much of what happens with the EZ will pollute the non-EZ members such as ourselves.MP_SE said:
If we vote to remain in the EU what will our relationship look like? Exactly the same? Or will we continue to be ignored and left on the sideline? More integration?CarlottaVance said:
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......blackburn63 said:
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.
Which given the UK's current view would, without some careful and possibly disingenuous positioning, require a(nother) referendum.
But that does not absolve leave from having to form a coherent and credible position. Which they have not.
My biggest fear is a narrow 'leave' vote followed by years of protracted and destabilising argument about our position which severely annoys our friends and neighbours across the channel. If we get a 'leave' vote, expect the leave campaign to further fragment.0 -
I accept there is that risk with leave, with not having a clear alte Nate position. But I'm willing to risk it. We know the eu offer and I just cannot accept that anymore, I'm sick of them, their contempt, and they are sick of us. I appreciate others will not want to chance it in the same fashion though.JosiasJessop said:
The mood music from the EU high wallahs is that there will be further integration. What is more, if the EuroZone is to be a success then further integration is more or less vital. They are also not keen on a two-speed EU, which means that much of what happens with the EZ will pollute the non-EZ members such as ourselves.MP_SE said:
If we vote to remain in the EU what will our relationship look like? Exactly the same? Or will we continue to be ignored and left on the sideline? More integration?CarlottaVance said:
You could have lifted that from any one of many replies during SINDYREF, when 'details' became too difficult......blackburn63 said:
Look, if you don't share Leave's confidence in us thriving as a stand alone nation, trading freely with the rest of the world, I'm sorry, but I have great faith in us.
Which given the UK's current view would, without some careful and possibly disingenuous positioning, require a(nother) referendum.
But that does not absolve leave from having to form a coherent and credible position. Which they have not.
My biggest fear is a narrow 'leave' vote followed by years of protracted and destabilising argument about our position which severely annoys our friends and neighbours across the channel. If we get a 'leave' vote, expect the leave campaign to further fragment.
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Comparisons tend to be invidious, but if said racist tosser is recommending all Muslims be rounded up into camps while the sexual molestation consists of 'show us your tits', then yes.Morris_Dancer said:
Being a racist tosser at least as bad as sexual molestation? The view of Ralf Jaeger, interior minister for North Rhine-Westphalia.
That's the trouble with loose categorisation.0 -
The Labour "Establishment" couldn't stop Jeremy Corbyn.Cromwell said:Trump probably will win NH but only because the Establishment are fractured and have not yet unified behind a candidate ; when they do it will be Rubio and he will then go on and defeat Hilary with at least 300 EV ....Hilary is a very weak candidate ; all she has going for her is the ''first female President '' ...she is like an aging actress, with an Olympic sense of entitlement, who will not accept that she's just not wanted anymore !
Anyone who actually believes that the GOP will allow a ''reality TV star ''and egomaniac to usurp the nomination must have a shallow , superficial and crudely stereotypical grasp of American politics !
Similarly, if Trump has enough support from Republican Party supporters, then the Republican Establishment will be powerless to stop him. The Establishment can't change the rules of the game now and bar him from standing as a candidate in caucuses & primaries, or stop his delegates from entering the Convention.
Secondly, Trump's policies (opposition to immigration, lower taxes etc) aren't inconsistent with Republican Party policies. There would be no strong ideological reasons for the Establishment to oppose him. They may think that he would be a weak candidate, or dislike him as a person, but would still accept him as the candidate if he is the clear winner.0 -
Mr. Runnymede, I quite agree.
But the political establishment here misleads the public, claiming we can lead/direct things by being at the heart of Europe, and other such deceit.
It's more integration, or exit. That's the case Leave should make.0 -
No, obviously not. But real barriers to trade will go up, both through variance in standards and through restrictions on free movement and free trade. The right of UK firms to compete freely with non-UK firms across the rEU could not be assured.blackburn63 said:A serious question for the Remainers on here:
If you can pick those apart coherently then Remain gets 90% of the vote
Do you really think that if we leave the EU the Germans will stop selling us cars and the French wine?
Interesting that you picked the comedy example of Gdansk rather than the real competitor in Frankfurt. Why? As it happens, I don't think that as long as the EU and UK retain their current attitudes to the finance industry that's a risk. But judging by the noises before the election, the future of the City in an over-regulated London - whether from Whitehall or Brussels - is not completely assured. There are more options than London or Frankfurt (or Gdansk).blackburn63 said:Do you really think that the English speaking City of London will uproot to Gdansk?
Of course they will. But that will happen either way; it's neither an argument for In or Out - when it's deployed as such it's invariably used as distraction.blackburn63 said:Do you honestly believe that emerging markets across the globe won't want to trade freely with us?
0
