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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview : August 1st 201

SystemSystem Posts: 11,693
edited August 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview : August 1st 2013

Codnor and Waingroves on Amber Valley (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Con 24, Lab 21 (Conservative overall majority of 3)
Ward Results (during last electoral cycle)
2010: Lab 1,159 (43%), Con 1,127 (42%), BNP 391 (15%)
2011: No Election
2012: Lab 825 (58%), Con 339 (24%), UKIP 198 (14%), BNP 59 (4%)

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited August 2013
    New thread meh.

    I thought there was a poll recently saying all young 'uns are Tory now? (She's not me btw...):

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/secondaryeducation/10216388/Its-no-wonder-none-of-my-friends-are-teenage-Tories.html#disqus_thread
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Looks like a night for Labour to take temporary respite from their disastrous performance in the national polls.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    SeanT said:

    Took my daughter on a 007 speedboat trip down the Thames today. If you've never done it I thoroughly recommend. Most exhilarating..

    But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.

    We built ourselves a city. We did it.

    Yeah but it's totally out of bounds to 99.9% of the population.
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Carola said:

    New thread meh.

    I thought there was a poll recently saying all young 'uns are Tory now? (She's not me btw...):

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/secondaryeducation/10216388/Its-no-wonder-none-of-my-friends-are-teenage-Tories.html#disqus_thread

    Wow. I've never seen a politics paper so I can't comment, but there is a general lack of enthusiasm among young people for the Tories. There are many "quiet" Conservatives but few loud ones. The number one thing (and I mean this honestly) is LGBT rights and the general perception that the Tories were or are against. A full 90% of facebook campaigns I saw at the last election were on this topic (Theresa May's voting record kept popping up, for some reason, - I say for some reason since the overall Conservative line wasn't a whole lot different). Gay marriage should have changed that. It'll take a little while, because it's about ho you think other people will think of you, but I'm optimistic that my future as a young Conservative is going to be better in 2015.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Peter Costas Georgiou (The UKIP candidate) got caught shoplifting from a Poundstretcher Store?

    How confusing is that for the average UKIP voter.
    Well he did say he'd keep the pound.

    I think we need a competition to decide where shoplifting councillors from other parties would commit their offence.

    Whoever stole over £100 million of diamonds from the Carlton Intercontinental Hotel in Cannes must have been a Tory.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IanDunt
    The desperation of the SNP http://pic.twitter.com/xeshkmGvPL
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    AveryLP said:


    I think we need a competition to decide where shoplifting councillors from other parties would commit their offence.

    Whoever stole over £100 million of diamonds from the Carlton Intercontinental Hotel in Cannes must have been a Tory.

    Lib Dems: Holland and Barratt
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Grandiose said:

    Carola said:

    New thread meh.

    I thought there was a poll recently saying all young 'uns are Tory now? (She's not me btw...):

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/secondaryeducation/10216388/Its-no-wonder-none-of-my-friends-are-teenage-Tories.html#disqus_thread

    Wow. I've never seen a politics paper so I can't comment, but there is a general lack of enthusiasm among young people for the Tories. There are many "quiet" Conservatives but few loud ones. The number one thing (and I mean this honestly) is LGBT rights and the general perception that the Tories were or are against. A full 90% of facebook campaigns I saw at the last election were on this topic (Theresa May's voting record kept popping up, for some reason, - I say for some reason since the overall Conservative line wasn't a whole lot different). Gay marriage should have changed that. It'll take a little while, because it's about ho you think other people will think of you, but I'm optimistic that my future as a young Conservative is going to be better in 2015.
    After your sterling efforts last night, Grandiose, we need you to write Edexcel's Politics syllabus and examination papers.

    All it needs is for SeanT to be your supervisor.

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    Took my daughter on a 007 speedboat trip down the Thames today. If you've never done it I thoroughly recommend. Most exhilarating..

    But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.

    We built ourselves a city. We did it.


    And there's a backlash from the xenophobic boneheaded right.

    Philip Stephens (FT): http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8421e104-f9e1-11e2-98e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2aecbXVYt … UK immigration policy nasty & idiotic: worse,economic consequences potentially catastrophic.


    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome
    Tomorrow's Independent front page: 'The new stop-and-search: spot checks at stations in hunt for illegal immigrants' http://bit.ly/12Jn2jb
    Is Grant Shapps paying advertising fees for that splash?

  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    SeanT said:

    Took my daughter on a 007 speedboat trip down the Thames today. If you've never done it I thoroughly recommend. Most exhilarating..

    But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.

    We built ourselves a city. We did it.

    Not tempted by 'M&M World'* then.

    * I just can't let it go.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Scott_P said:
    Shoplifting

    SNP: SLAB

  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Grandiose said:

    Carola said:

    New thread meh.

    I thought there was a poll recently saying all young 'uns are Tory now? (She's not me btw...):

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/secondaryeducation/10216388/Its-no-wonder-none-of-my-friends-are-teenage-Tories.html#disqus_thread

    Wow. I've never seen a politics paper so I can't comment, but there is a general lack of enthusiasm among young people for the Tories. There are many "quiet" Conservatives but few loud ones. The number one thing (and I mean this honestly) is LGBT rights and the general perception that the Tories were or are against. A full 90% of facebook campaigns I saw at the last election were on this topic (Theresa May's voting record kept popping up, for some reason, - I say for some reason since the overall Conservative line wasn't a whole lot different). Gay marriage should have changed that. It'll take a little while, because it's about ho you think other people will think of you, but I'm optimistic that my future as a young Conservative is going to be better in 2015.
    Most - not all - in my experience of late don't see that political parties have anything to do with them. They'll care/get involved, but usually re specific issues such as gay marriage etc. And by care/get involved, I mean they may send a tweet.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @tim

    Just to win over a few Kippers.

    The problem, tim, is that it is working.

  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    Took my daughter on a 007 speedboat trip down the Thames today. If you've never done it I thoroughly recommend. Most exhilarating..

    But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.

    We built ourselves a city. We did it.


    And there's a backlash from the xenophobic boneheaded right.

    Philip Stephens (FT): http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8421e104-f9e1-11e2-98e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2aecbXVYt … UK immigration policy nasty & idiotic: worse,economic consequences potentially catastrophic.


    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome
    Tomorrow's Independent front page: 'The new stop-and-search: spot checks at stations in hunt for illegal immigrants' http://bit.ly/12Jn2jb
    Is Grant Shapps paying advertising fees for that splash?


    Sean O'Neill ‏@TimesCrime 6m
    Has Enoch Powell been exhumed and made Home Secretary?

    It'd be ironic if Camerons legacy is a rise in xenophobia and the wrecking of Londons reputation as a world city.
    Just to win over a few Kippers.

    The key word is illegal . Your Labour is now the party of illegal wars and illegal immigrants.

    You offer lawlessness and vacuum.

  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited August 2013
    @AveryLP

    Two things I wanted to mention. Firstly I am confident that the article I created on Wikipedia very early this morning, "Disappearance of Charlene Downes", will make an appearance on the front page of Wikipedia (in its "Did you know..." section) in the next 7-14 days.

    Secondly and more generally I wanted to note that as well as editing said encyclopaedia, I volunteer for a charity that supports it (Wikimedia UK), and I'm very happy to answer any questions about it.
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    tim said:

    Carola said:

    SeanT said:

    Took my daughter on a 007 speedboat trip down the Thames today. If you've never done it I thoroughly recommend. Most exhilarating..

    But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.

    We built ourselves a city. We did it.

    Not tempted by 'M&M World'* then.

    * I just can't let it go.

    It gets good reviews on TripAdvisor

    http://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186338-d2232907-Reviews-M_M_s_World-London_England.html

    And 470 more people bothered to review it than did for 8 of the NHS wards of shame

    "The store is fantastic and fits perfectly with the theme of the M&Ms"

    I think I'd assumed that would be the case.
    Oh ffs.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Carola said:

    SeanT said:

    Took my daughter on a 007 speedboat trip down the Thames today. If you've never done it I thoroughly recommend. Most exhilarating..

    But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.

    We built ourselves a city. We did it.

    Not tempted by 'M&M World'* then.

    * I just can't let it go.
    You can even vote for it:
    http://worldchocolateguide.com/shop/mms-world/london/
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    Grandiose said:

    @AveryLP

    Two things I wanted to mention. Firstly I am confident that the article I created on Wikipedia very early this morning, "Disappearance of Charlene Downes", will make an appearance on the front page of Wikipedia (in its "Did you know..." section) in the next 7-14 days.

    Secondly and more generally I wanted to note that as well as editing said encyclopaedia, I volunteer for a charity that supports it (Wikimedia UK), and I'm very happy to answer any questions about it.

    Just looked at the website for Wikimedia UK. £5 per annum membership seems a very reasonable subscription to support the cause.

    Two personal questions which you can duck if you wish.

    Are you doing this independently of OU; as part of a team; or, have you made a solo decision?

    Are you an undergraduate or a postgraduate?

  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Toms said:

    Carola said:

    SeanT said:

    Took my daughter on a 007 speedboat trip down the Thames today. If you've never done it I thoroughly recommend. Most exhilarating..

    But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.

    We built ourselves a city. We did it.

    Not tempted by 'M&M World'* then.

    * I just can't let it go.
    You can even vote for it:
    http://worldchocolateguide.com/shop/mms-world/london/
    Lol...

    'But none of the more exotic American flavours are currently available, due (as I understand it) to EU restrictions on the sale some of the additives used.'

    UKIPPERS - ARE YOU AWARE OF THIS????
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited August 2013
    AveryLP said:

    Grandiose said:

    @AveryLP

    Two things I wanted to mention. Firstly I am confident that the article I created on Wikipedia very early this morning, "Disappearance of Charlene Downes", will make an appearance on the front page of Wikipedia (in its "Did you know..." section) in the next 7-14 days.

    Secondly and more generally I wanted to note that as well as editing said encyclopaedia, I volunteer for a charity that supports it (Wikimedia UK), and I'm very happy to answer any questions about it.

    Just looked at the website for Wikimedia UK. £5 per annum membership seems a very reasonable subscription to support the cause.

    Two more personal questions which you can duck if you wish.

    Are you doing this independently of OU as part of a team or have you made a solo decision?

    Are you an undergraduate or a postgraduate?

    My Wikipedia account page is here (and I'm on University Challenge on 26 August! :)) . I started editing when I was about 16, while at school; my brother also edits.

    The relationship between said Wikimedia UK and projects like Wikipedia is fairly complex. Essentially Wikimedia UK support Wikipedia and similar "open knowledge" projects not by direct funding (servers, staff) - which is mostly handled through the Wikimedia Foundation in the US - but through organising social meetups for contributors; microgrants for books or small projects; and partnerships with Galleries, Libraries And Museums ("GLAM"). So for example I've helped some academics at Oxford contribute in one afternoon and some people interested in Women in Science contribute in another.

    (Anyway, goodnight; I have an early start tomorrow.)
  • Options
    Grandiose said:

    AveryLP said:

    Grandiose said:

    @AveryLP

    Two things I wanted to mention. Firstly I am confident that the article I created on Wikipedia very early this morning, "Disappearance of Charlene Downes", will make an appearance on the front page of Wikipedia (in its "Did you know..." section) in the next 7-14 days.

    Secondly and more generally I wanted to note that as well as editing said encyclopaedia, I volunteer for a charity that supports it (Wikimedia UK), and I'm very happy to answer any questions about it.

    Just looked at the website for Wikimedia UK. £5 per annum membership seems a very reasonable subscription to support the cause.

    Two more personal questions which you can duck if you wish.

    Are you doing this independently of OU as part of a team or have you made a solo decision?

    Are you an undergraduate or a postgraduate?

    My Wikipedia account page is here (and I'm on University Challenge on 26 August! :)) . I started editing when I was about 16, while at school; my brother also edits.

    Mine is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902

    :)

  • Options
    Carola said:

    SeanT said:

    Took my daughter on a 007 speedboat trip down the Thames today. If you've never done it I thoroughly recommend. Most exhilarating..

    But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.

    We built ourselves a city. We did it.

    Not tempted by 'M&M World'* then.

    * I just can't let it go.
    @Carola and @SeanT

    There's always the Epping Ongar Railway if you haven't been :)
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    @Nigel_Farage: What percentage of the vote does UKIP have to get to be given a seat in the Lords?


    A gift from Cameron this, pandering to UKIPs xenophobia one minute, treating their voters with contempt the next

    Do tell us, tim, how many working UKIP peers did Gordon and Tony recommend for creation during their period in office?

  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Which Uni will you be representing so we can cheer you on?
    Grandiose said:

    AveryLP said:

    Grandiose said:

    @AveryLP

    Two things I wanted to mention. Firstly I am confident that the article I created on Wikipedia very early this morning, "Disappearance of Charlene Downes", will make an appearance on the front page of Wikipedia (in its "Did you know..." section) in the next 7-14 days.

    Secondly and more generally I wanted to note that as well as editing said encyclopaedia, I volunteer for a charity that supports it (Wikimedia UK), and I'm very happy to answer any questions about it.

    Just looked at the website for Wikimedia UK. £5 per annum membership seems a very reasonable subscription to support the cause.

    Two more personal questions which you can duck if you wish.

    Are you doing this independently of OU as part of a team or have you made a solo decision?

    Are you an undergraduate or a postgraduate?

    My Wikipedia account page is here (and I'm on University Challenge on 26 August! :)) . I started editing when I was about 16, while at school; my brother also edits.

    The relationship between said Wikimedia UK and projects like Wikipedia is fairly complex. Essentially Wikimedia UK support Wikipedia and similar "open knowledge" projects not by direct funding (servers, staff) - which is mostly handled through the Wikimedia Foundation in the US - but through organising social meetups for contributors; microgrants for books or small projects; and partnerships with Galleries, Libraries And Museums ("GLAM"). So for example I've helped some academics at Oxford contribute in one afternoon and some people interested in Women in Science contribute in another.

    (Anyway, goodnight; I have an early start tomorrow.)
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    "Zimbabwe is booming – but its future lies in Chinese hands

    China's willingness to do business with Robert Mugabe makes a mockery of Western sanctions":


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/10216403/Zimbabwe-is-booming-but-its-future-lies-in-Chinese-hands.html
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Scott_P said:
    The desperate bullsh*t of a scottish tory surger and SLAB comprehensively debunked.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/running-scared/

    :)
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    fitalass said:

    Which Uni will you be representing so we can cheer you on?

    Grandiose said:

    AveryLP said:

    Grandiose said:

    @AveryLP

    Two things I wanted to mention. Firstly I am confident that the article I created on Wikipedia very early this morning, "Disappearance of Charlene Downes", will make an appearance on the front page of Wikipedia (in its "Did you know..." section) in the next 7-14 days.

    Secondly and more generally I wanted to note that as well as editing said encyclopaedia, I volunteer for a charity that supports it (Wikimedia UK), and I'm very happy to answer any questions about it.

    Just looked at the website for Wikimedia UK. £5 per annum membership seems a very reasonable subscription to support the cause.

    Two more personal questions which you can duck if you wish.

    Are you doing this independently of OU as part of a team or have you made a solo decision?

    Are you an undergraduate or a postgraduate?

    My Wikipedia account page is here (and I'm on University Challenge on 26 August! :)) . I started editing when I was about 16, while at school; my brother also edits.

    The relationship between said Wikimedia UK and projects like Wikipedia is fairly complex. Essentially Wikimedia UK support Wikipedia and similar "open knowledge" projects not by direct funding (servers, staff) - which is mostly handled through the Wikimedia Foundation in the US - but through organising social meetups for contributors; microgrants for books or small projects; and partnerships with Galleries, Libraries And Museums ("GLAM"). So for example I've helped some academics at Oxford contribute in one afternoon and some people interested in Women in Science contribute in another.

    (Anyway, goodnight; I have an early start tomorrow.)
    Don't tell tim, fitalass, but it appears to be Brasenose College, Oxford.

  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Just caught up with the news that Mr&Mrs BenM have just added a new addition to the family, congratulations and best wishes on George's birth.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    Yesterday Peter Cruddas, today Nigel Farage. You are pb's most misunderstood poster, in reality your compassion knows no bounds.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The lawlessness of a sleazy buffoon.
    Italy ex-PM Silvio Berlusconi jail term confirmed

    Italy's highest court has upheld a prison sentence given to former PM Silvio Berlusconi for tax evasion.

    The court also ordered a further judicial review on whether he should be banned from holding public office.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23542525
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    I have been on pb a good few years and I haven't seen our tim so rattled ;-) calm down lad,labours still in the lead in the polls.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    "EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton "commends the people of Zimbabwe for turning out in large numbers to cast their votes, in what were broadly peaceful elections," a spokesman said.

    "She calls upon on all parties to maintain calm and order as the results of the poll become known," he said."

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/01/us-zimbabwe-election-eu-idUSBRE97018Y20130801?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews
  • Options
    *** Breaking News on Scrapheap / THFC separation proceedings ***

    This action has been put on a temporary hold for the entirely spurious reason that on oddschecker the most popular bet is now on Bale staying at Spurs and the odds have come in a little on him staying. It's the hope that kills you as a Spurs fan.

    For those wise-heads saying take the money, I give you this article from Oliver Holt which absolutely nails it for me on why this is a massive decision for Spurs fans.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/gareth-bale-transfer-tottenham-sell-2106285
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    tim said:

    @Nigel_Farage: What percentage of the vote does UKIP have to get to be given a seat in the Lords?


    A gift from Cameron this, pandering to UKIPs xenophobia one minute, treating their voters with contempt the next

    I'm rather looking forward to seeing Lord Farage of Wentworth ennobled in 2015.

    Seriously though, did the coalition have a proper agreement about this? Presumably it was all supposed to change when Clegg got his plan for elected 15 year terms in.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:



    Excluding UKIP from that is a gift to Farage

    Are you predicting a terrible backlash?
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 17m

    THE GUARDIAN: Inside GCHQ: How the US pays Britain’s spy agency £100m for a very special relationship #SkyPapers pic.twitter.com/s4SbMpUTif
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Nigel_Farage: What percentage of the vote does UKIP have to get to be given a seat in the Lords?


    A gift from Cameron this, pandering to UKIPs xenophobia one minute, treating their voters with contempt the next

    Do tell us, tim, how many working UKIP peers did Gordon and Tony recommend for creation during their period in office?

    None.
    But Cameron promised to appoint on the basis of the percentage of votes achieved at the last election.
    Excluding UKIP from that is a gift to Farage
    Not really.

    There is something rather arrogant and presumptuous about demanding an honour.

    Is Farage going to insist that the Queen wears purple and gold at least twice a year?

    Although it would not be as bad as pre-empting the Queen by pre-announcing a party nomination in order to gain favourable and prejudicial media coverage.

  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    None.
    But Cameron promised to appoint on the basis of the percentage of votes achieved at the last election.
    Excluding UKIP from that is a gift to Farage

    Not really. Usually there's a cut-off of, say, 5%.

    If you have strict proportionality with no cut-off then you get the Israel disaster of tiny parties wielding disproportionate influence. In the UK context, having no cut-off would give the BNP around 15 peers
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    Mick_Pork said:

    Scott_P said:
    The desperate bullsh*t of a scottish tory surger and SLAB comprehensively debunked.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/running-scared/

    :)
    It only wprks of all the nats vote yes. And they won't.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited August 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 17m

    THE GUARDIAN: Inside GCHQ: How the US pays Britain’s spy agency £100m for a very special relationship #SkyPapers pic.twitter.com/s4SbMpUTif
    Wow,I always thought we gave our special relationship freely to our yank friends,we get paid for it -wow ;-)

  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:



    And of course he's ennobled a Green who polled 1/3 the UKIP vote

    And now the Greens have 1/3 of the peers that UKIP has.

    What are you complaining about?
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited August 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 17m

    THE GUARDIAN: Inside GCHQ: How the US pays Britain’s spy agency £100m for a very special relationship #SkyPapers pic.twitter.com/s4SbMpUTif
    Wow,I always thought we gave our special relationship freely to our yank friends,we get paid for it -wow ;-)

    Michael E. Smith ‏@ProfMESmith 1h

    #GCHQ's 'Mastering the Internet' programme to exploit 'any phone, any time, anywhere': Inside UK's biggest spy agency http://gu.com/p/3hyz9/tw


    alan rusbridger ‏@arusbridger

    British spy station expected to "pull its weight" for Americans #NSA

    chris horn ‏@chrisjhorn 1h

    Guardian: NSA funded GCHQ £100M over last 3 years; GCHQ "less constrained by NSA's concerns about compliance" http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/aug/01/nsa-paid-gchq-spying-edward-snowden
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Yo
    Scott_P said:
    u mean the post of a desperate Tory, you could not have filled the picture
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    Perhaps Cameron should've put a cut off in the coalition agreement then.
    And of course he's ennobled a Green who polled 1/3 the UKIP vote

    In the interim ,Lords appointments will be made with the objective of creating a second chamber that is reflective of the share of the vote secured by the political parties in the last general election.

    'Reflective' doesn't mean 'proportional to within a tiny margin of error'.

    In any case we're nowhere near there yet. The biggest over-representation remains Labour. Perhaps a few dozen Labour peers should resign in order to further the progressive agenda of a more proportional representation.
  • Options

    tim said:

    Perhaps Cameron should've put a cut off in the coalition agreement then.
    And of course he's ennobled a Green who polled 1/3 the UKIP vote

    In the interim ,Lords appointments will be made with the objective of creating a second chamber that is reflective of the share of the vote secured by the political parties in the last general election.

    'Reflective' doesn't mean 'proportional to within a tiny margin of error'.

    In any case we're nowhere near there yet. The biggest over-representation remains Labour. Perhaps a few dozen Labour peers should resign in order to further the progressive agenda of a more proportional representation.
    The biggest over-representation is the Lords itself, the only Upper House in the world that's larger than its respective Lower House.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    The biggest over-representation is the Lords itself, the only Upper House in the world that's larger than its respective Lower House.

    Well, getting rid of a hundred or so Labour hacks would help with that.

    I could start drawing up a shortlist if that would help...
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Ribble Valley is a LD gain from Con
    LD 361 Ind 249 Con 109 Lab 85

    a pretty awful Conservative result
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The Worcs count is live on webcam
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:



    I'm not complaining, I like Cameron helping Farage

    Things must be worse than I thought if the likes of this and Cruddas are all we have to keep you going :(
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Discrepancy in number of ballot papers counted v issued in Worcs . Starting count again from scratch !!!
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    BBC's Wales Aled ap Dafydd reporting Plaid have won Ynys Mon. Apparently all eyes are on how close UKIP is to Labour. So I guess Tories are 4th.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    Andrea - Big boost for Farage then, UKIP, the English only party, is no more, but even eating into a Welsh nationalist heartland!
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    Penyheol: Plaid 929 Lab 554 TUSC 173 Con 135

    Norfolk/Thetford West is close again.
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    Discrepancy in number of ballot papers counted v issued in Worcs . Starting count again from scratch !!!

    Good job there's only a 20% turnout then.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Worcs result Lab 388 ICHC 331 Con 504 Ind 195 UKIP 442 Con gain
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Worcs result Lab 388 ICHC 331 Con 504 Ind 195 UKIP 442 Con gain

    a pretty awful impressive Conservative result
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    Amber Valley

    Lab 557 UKIP 250 CON 219 LD 39

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Penyheol: Plaid 929 Lab 554 TUSC 173 Con 135

    Norfolk/Thetford West is close again.

    Whom do you think is going to steal the result, Andrea?

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    42.45% turnout in Ynys Mon
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AveryLP said:

    Worcs result Lab 388 ICHC 331 Con 504 Ind 195 UKIP 442 Con gain

    a pretty awful impressive Conservative result

    pretty mediocre compared to their 2009 majority

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    The Worcs count is live on webcam

    Linky?

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    GeoffM said:

    The Worcs count is live on webcam

    Linky?


    It's all finished !!!!!
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    Labour gain Norfolk/Thetford West. Majority 171 over UKIP. 1 vote UKIP majority in May
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    2 UKIP losses in one night !
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Telegraph - Labour for Independence 'a Scottish Nationalist front'

    " Labour for Independence was accused of being a “sham” after it emerged that many of the individuals posing in publicity photographs for the group are SNP councillors and officials.

    Scottish Labour said they were masquerading as party supporters and challenged the SNP to condemn the “charade”. Alex Salmond has claimed the group’s presence is evidence of the “broadening and deepening of the independence movement.”

    But Allan Grogan, a Labour member who heads the group, insisted it was genuine and the presence of SNP members in the photographs demonstrated their determination to cross party lines to win next year’s referendum.

    He said anyone can join the group as long as they are not members of other political parties. Mr Grogan said this explained why Pat Kane, a prominent musician and nationalist, but not an SNP or Labour member, was allowed to join.

    Labour for Independence has received widespread coverage by BBC Scotland, with its first policy conference appearing on mainstream television bulletins last weekend despite there appearing to be few attendees.

    Mr Salmond and the official Yes Scotland referendum campaign has been keen to use this and similar groups to portray support for independence as a phenomenon that reaches across society instead of being limited to the SNP.

    Another group, Crofters for Yes, has been launched with eight members. Mr Grogan said Labour for Independence has around 30 card-carrying party members, including those who sit on its executive committee."
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    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    tim said:

    None.
    But Cameron promised to appoint on the basis of the percentage of votes achieved at the last election.
    Excluding UKIP from that is a gift to Farage

    Not really. Usually there's a cut-off of, say, 5%.

    If you have strict proportionality with no cut-off then you get the Israel disaster of tiny parties wielding disproportionate influence. In the UK context, having no cut-off would give the BNP around 15 peers
    The cut-offs are a really stupid idea. A decent few seats at 5.1% but zero at 4.9% makes no sense.

    Israeli politics has a lot of problems, but it's not clear that it's because it doesn't have a cut-off. They're doing well to have a functioning democracy there at all given all their adverse circumstances and contradictions. In any case they tried raising it and that didn't help.

    Giving the BNP 15 peers sounds fair enough given their historical support. People got worried when they got MEPs but nothing particularly bad happened. Members of the House of Lords get silly clothes, not super-powers. When a reasonable number of people vote for a party they should be able to get people from that party elected to represent them, even if that party are a bunch of twats.

    PS. The correct solution to the House of Lords issue is just to make everyone in the country a Lord (or Lady). The result would be proportional, democratic, provide historical continuity and probably not be subject to a veto by the Tory right: Cameron just sends a full copy of the electoral register to the Queen. (They'd probably want to make some procedural changes first related to expenses and voting online in divisions and things.)
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    Norfolk

    Jermey (Lab) 1071 Newton (UKIP) 900 Ashby (Con) 282 Walmsley (Green) 40 Jeffrey (Ind) 78
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    Sunil will be along soon to say that is nothing to worry about !!!

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    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    I may be in a minority on this, but if that story is true it makes me genuinely ashamed to be British. I honestly - and obviously naively - thought that was the kind of thing we just did not do. But clearly we do if it helps the Tories attract UKIP voters. Revolting stuff.

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    If UKIP can beat both Tories and Labour in a place like Ynys Mon they must be doing a lot better elsewhere...
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Andy_JS said:

    If UKIP can beat both Tories and Labour in a place like Ynys Mon they must be doing a lot better elsewhere...

    I doubt that UKIP will get anywhere near to Labour .
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SouthamObserver

    'Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.'

    Obviously copying the BBC's random checks for TV licenses.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:
    The Home Office said a Ukrainian woman aged 33, an Indian man aged 44 and a 59-year-old Brazilian woman had been detained as part of the checks at Kensal Green. At Walthamstow Central station, immigration officials arrested 14 people after officers questioned people to check if they were in the UK illegally.

    Rather blows a hole in Jonathan Portes's methodology for estimating the number of illegal immigrants in the UK.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    Photo of the votes piling up in Ynys Mon:

    http://t.co/IIZxKysR4Y

    https://twitter.com/AledapDafydd
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Not content with being the most hilariously inept tipsters on PB, the scottish tory surgers are still trying to spin SLAB's desperate debunked bullsh*t.
    Central to the attack was an image published on the group’s Facebook page last year. You can see it in full below, and you’ll understand what we mean by “in full” shortly.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/lfifb1.jpg

    The caption attached to the picture is unambiguous, but we’ll add emphasis anyway: “Lab4Indy in Killie today campaigning alongside Yes East Ayrshire“.

    The picture was actually taken by one of the Yes East Ayrshire campaigners in question. He tweeted it on his personal Twitter account the same day, 15 December

    The picture was actually taken by one of the Yes East Ayrshire campaigners in question. He tweeted it on his personal Twitter account the same day, 15 December:

    https://twitter.com/Graham_W_Barton/status/279978208135352321

    You’ll have noted the caption, but again we’ll add some emphasis for extra clarity: “Big thanks to @labourforindy for attending todays EastAyrshire @YesScotland stall.”

    So the facts couldn’t be clearer: absolutely nobody was pretending that everyone in the picture was a Labour For Independence campaigner. It was explicitly and publicly stated, in numerous locations, seven and a half months ago, that the image showed LFI helping out at a Yes Scotland stall with Yes campaigners.

    Barton tweeted other images at the time which allow no room for doubt:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/barton2.jpg

    So it’s mystifying that bad-tempered, emotionally-fragile Scotsman columnist Euan McColm could have been sufficiently confused as to publish a shock-horror report on right-wing blog ThinkScotland yesterday in which he revealed something everyone had already known since 2012 – that some of the people in the first pic were Yes Scotland campaigners, not Labour For Independence ones.

    (Assuming, as apparently we’re being asked to do, that the bright blue “Yes” t-shirts they were wearing hadn’t already rather given the game away.)

    People at a Yes campaign stand wearing Yes t-shirts were in fact Yes campaigners, he went on to drop an astonishing bombshell: that a lot of people in the Yes campaign are also in the SNP.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/running-scared/
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    I may be in a minority on this, but if that story is true it makes me genuinely ashamed to be British. I honestly - and obviously naively - thought that was the kind of thing we just did not do. But clearly we do if it helps the Tories attract UKIP voters. Revolting stuff.

    It's an atmosphere being deliberately built by the Tories.
    Cameron seems keen to match the rise in disability hate crimes he's presided over.
    If you don't like it, put forward an alternative, more effective and acceptable method of reducing the crime of residing in the UK illegally.

    Or do you just want to ignore the crime?

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    tim said:

    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    I may be in a minority on this, but if that story is true it makes me genuinely ashamed to be British. I honestly - and obviously naively - thought that was the kind of thing we just did not do. But clearly we do if it helps the Tories attract UKIP voters. Revolting stuff.

    It's an atmosphere being deliberately built by the Tories.
    Cameron seems keen to match the rise in disability hate crimes he's presided over.

    It's straight out of the Crosby playbook. Police on the streets of London asking people who look foreign for their papers. All foreign looking people are suspects as the Tories chase UKIP votes. It may well work. But it will certainly galvanise the other side too.

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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    Equal to your mindless fake outrage.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    edited August 2013
    "Just the non white commuters according to witnesses."

    Why is that surprising? Non-white people are enormously more likely to be illegal immigrants than white people. That's just a fact.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SouthamObserver

    'It's straight out of the Crosby playbook.'

    Crosby now running the Home Office ,along with the NHS no wonder Labour are so frit.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013

    tim said:

    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    I may be in a minority on this, but if that story is true it makes me genuinely ashamed to be British. I honestly - and obviously naively - thought that was the kind of thing we just did not do. But clearly we do if it helps the Tories attract UKIP voters. Revolting stuff.

    It's an atmosphere being deliberately built by the Tories.
    Cameron seems keen to match the rise in disability hate crimes he's presided over.

    It's straight out of the Crosby playbook. Police on the streets of London asking people who look foreign for their papers. All foreign looking people are suspects as the Tories chase UKIP votes. It may well work. But it will certainly galvanise the other side too.

    SO

    You are missing the moral hazard of failing to enforce the law of the land.

    There is a back history.

    Journalists and newspapers.

    Police.

    Grooming,

    etc. etc.

    The consequences of failing to enforce the law always turn out to be worse than having effective enforcement systems in place from the beginning.

    Clearing up the mess may be ugly, and political advantage may gained without merit, but the problem should never have been allowed to exist.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    I may be in a minority on this, but if that story is true it makes me genuinely ashamed to be British. I honestly - and obviously naively - thought that was the kind of thing we just did not do. But clearly we do if it helps the Tories attract UKIP voters. Revolting stuff.

    It's an atmosphere being deliberately built by the Tories.
    Cameron seems keen to match the rise in disability hate crimes he's presided over.
    If you don't like it, put forward an alternative, more effective and acceptable method of reducing the crime of residing in the UK illegally.

    Or do you just want to ignore the crime?

    We should send Sunil and his mother out around London stations and they can report back how they feel about this introduction of SS tactics to the streets of this country .

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    New photo of the votes in Ynys Mon:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BQnmtB-CAAEe3ix.jpg:large
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    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver

    'It's straight out of the Crosby playbook.'

    Crosby now running the Home Office ,along with the NHS no wonder Labour are so frit.

    I am not frit of the Tories ordering the police onto the streets to target foreign looking people. I am revolted. If I am in a minority, if that puts Labour and the LDs on the losing side, so be it; I really don't care. If targeting people who look foreign is what wins you elections, then I'd rather not win.

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    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    Sunil will be along soon to say that is nothing to worry about !!!

    I visited Birmingham University today and didn't see any immigration officers at University station, New Street or London Euston!
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    SS tactics

    Hyperbole, much?

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    edited August 2013
    Apparently Labour supporters are a bit worried about being beaten into third place by UKIP in Ynys Mon.

    Labour holds the seat at Westminster, and has done since 2001.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    I am not sure that the SNP will want too see this rather nasty little article making its way into the mainstream, it does their Independence cause no good.
    Mick_Pork said:

    Not content with being the most hilariously inept tipsters on PB, the scottish tory surgers are still trying to spin SLAB's desperate debunked bullsh*t.



  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    GeoffM said:

    SS tactics

    Hyperbole, much?

    Can you see any difference between today in this country and the SS stopping people and asking them to prove they are not Jewish ?
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    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    I may be in a minority on this, but if that story is true it makes me genuinely ashamed to be British. I honestly - and obviously naively - thought that was the kind of thing we just did not do. But clearly we do if it helps the Tories attract UKIP voters. Revolting stuff.

    It's an atmosphere being deliberately built by the Tories.
    Cameron seems keen to match the rise in disability hate crimes he's presided over.

    It's straight out of the Crosby playbook. Police on the streets of London asking people who look foreign for their papers. All foreign looking people are suspects as the Tories chase UKIP votes. It may well work. But it will certainly galvanise the other side too.

    SO

    You are missing the moral hazard of failing to enforce the law of the land.

    There is a back history.

    Journalists and newspapers.

    Police.

    Grooming,

    etc. etc.

    The consequences of failing to enforce the law always turn out to be worse than having effective enforcement systems in place from the beginning.

    Clearing up the mess may be ugly, and political advantage may gained without merit, but the problem should never have been allowed to exist.

    That's right - all foreign looking people are potential criminals.

    Avery, you're a civilised, decent man and can clearly see this for what it is. You are not fooling me.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    Sunil will be along soon to say that is nothing to worry about !!!

    I visited Birmingham University today and didn't see any immigration officers at University station, New Street or London Euston!
    Well let us know when you do get stopped and tell us how you proved you were here legally .
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    Is it Godwin's Law if someone mentions the Nazis?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779

    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    Sunil will be along soon to say that is nothing to worry about !!!

    I visited Birmingham University today and didn't see any immigration officers at University station, New Street or London Euston!
    What's Birmingham University like these days? I think they've been doing a lot of new building recently.
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    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    Sunil will be along soon to say that is nothing to worry about !!!

    I visited Birmingham University today and didn't see any immigration officers at University station, New Street or London Euston!
    Well let us know when you do get stopped and tell us how you proved you were here legally .
    Assuming that story's true of course.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    Another photo:

    https://twitter.com/ElliwMai/status/363077730486583296/photo/1

    Looks like PC are currently on about 7,000 votes, the Tories on 500, and UKIP and Labour both on about 2,000.
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    Andy_JS said:

    tim said:

    Random checks at stations for illegal immigrants? Is that serious? I cannot believe that. It must be made up.

    Just the non white commuters according to witnesses.
    Didnt know we had to carry identity papers in this country, must've missed that going through parliament

    Sunil will be along soon to say that is nothing to worry about !!!

    I visited Birmingham University today and didn't see any immigration officers at University station, New Street or London Euston!
    What's Birmingham University like these days? I think they've been doing a lot of new building recently.
    Yes there were a few new buildings, but the old medical school's still there.
This discussion has been closed.