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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview : August 1st 201

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  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    The UK prefers, culturally, a voluntary system, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if carrying ID at all times wasn't mandatory.

    Yes, I got the sense you were rowing back from the suggestion I originally asked about a little while ago.
    Not so much "rowing back" as prepared to accept alternatives.

    If it was my decision I would require foreign nationals to carry ID at all times with a requirement that, if they didn't have ID on them, they may be detained and accompanied to their documents in the event of reasonable cause.

    That would give enforcers the option to follow through if they suspected on reasonable grounds that an offence had been committed.

    If the carrying of ID was then made optional the requirement to produce on reasonable request could still be applied together with the detain and accompany powers in the very small number of cases where this would be reasonable and necessary.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    If it was my decision I would require foreign nationals to carry ID at all times with a requirement that, if they didn't have ID on them, they may be detained and accompanied to their documents in the event of reasonable cause.

    But again I'm left to ask how you differentiate between a foreign national who is failing to comply with this requirement and a UK national who doesnt have to. If you cant do that (and you havent explained yet how you could and I have asked a few times) then your requirement has to be for everyone to carry ID and for UK nationals to be subject to this detention as well.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Neil said:

    Yes, Donegal Irish and Gaelic often sound to me to be closer to each other than Donegal Irish is to Galway or Kerry Irish. Which is hardly surprising given where Gaelic came from!

    But it would have been fascinating to hear two people with such backgrounds talking to each other in whatever mishmash of the two dialects they created for themselves!

    That comment reminds me of the film "The Eagle" (starring the gorgeous Jamie Bell) set in 2nd century Roman-occupied Britain. The Roman soldiers were played by American actors (with English playing the part of Latin), and the native Britons were played by Gaelic-speaking actors (and local extras) (with Scottish Gaelic playing the part of Ancient British). They couldn't find a suitable Gaelic-speaking actor to play the 10-year-old boy, so they cast an Irish-speaking boy from Dublin instead. Presumably he would not have had too much difficulty learning the lines.

    An amusing side-issue of the film is the Spanish language version of the soundtrack on the DVD, with a Spanish actor making a bad effort at pronouncing the Gaelic bits. In the original version, Jamie Bell did a good job of pronouncing his Gaelic lines, as did the Algerian actor (who specialises in languages and accents) playing the leading warrior in the Highland tribe.

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (OT) Someone once asked me if I was bisexual, and I pointed out that I was only bisexual in the sense that I would probably have to buy sex in order to get any. But if Gareth Bale costs £105,000,000 then he's way out of my price range anyway.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    If it was my decision I would require foreign nationals to carry ID at all times with a requirement that, if they didn't have ID on them, they may be detained and accompanied to their documents in the event of reasonable cause.

    But again I'm left to ask how you differentiate between a foreign national who is failing to comply with this requirement and a UK national who doesnt have to. If you cant do that (and you havent explained yet how you could and I have asked a few times) then your requirement has to be for everyone to carry ID and for UK nationals to be subject to this detention as well.
    You commit a motoring offence and are stopped by a police officer. If you do not have your licence with you then you will be asked to produce it at a police station within a reasonable defined period.

    If he police officer suspects you may not produce or that other offences may have been committed (stolen car etc) you may be required to give sufficient information to identfy yourself and validate your address. The obvious check is with DVLA.

    Similar rules would apply to foreign national ID requirements. If the enforcing officer, say a UK borders agency officer, had reasonable grounds to suspect you might have committed an offence then he or she would be able to ask for ID documents or, in their absence, alternative methods of identification.

    Who is your employer? Where do you live? Can you give me the name of someone who can identify you? etc

    If you were a bona fide UK national then providing such information would be simple. Show the officer a bank card or library card or anything with an address on it and it is likely that you will go on your way, or if sufficient suspicion remains, you may be required to produce official documents at a reasonable time and place.

    If you were a foreign national legally in the UK then production of your ID documents would be the simplest and least painful response. If you didn't have them on you, then similar identity questions could be followed as above with similar outcomes.

    If you were an illegal immigrant then this supporting identification process may not be so easy to provide. The detain and accompany until ID established would then be an option.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,511
    AveryLP said:

    Just on the practical effects of spot-checks based on racial profiling: Being put under suspicion on account of race doesn't feel nice, and will cause legal immigrants to distrust the British authorities. This will probably be a net negative even in terms of immigration enforcement, because it will make it harder to get reliable tip-offs and cooperation in following them up, which will be reasonably effective methods of enforcement. Worse, it will interfere with regular policing, which will mean more crime.

    But everybody already knows this.

    Edmondo

    Tell us what the rules are in Japan.
    I've never heard of immigration spot-checks, but what you hear about a lot is police stopping foreign-looking people on bicycles and asking them to prove they're not stolen. I'm certain the adverse results of the distrust this causes far outweighs any protection it may provide to the nation's bicycles.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013

    AveryLP said:

    Just on the practical effects of spot-checks based on racial profiling: Being put under suspicion on account of race doesn't feel nice, and will cause legal immigrants to distrust the British authorities. This will probably be a net negative even in terms of immigration enforcement, because it will make it harder to get reliable tip-offs and cooperation in following them up, which will be reasonably effective methods of enforcement. Worse, it will interfere with regular policing, which will mean more crime.

    But everybody already knows this.

    Edmondo

    Tell us what the rules are in Japan.
    I've never heard of immigration spot-checks, but what you hear about a lot is police stopping foreign-looking people on bicycles and asking them to prove they're not stolen. I'm certain the adverse results of the distrust this causes far outweighs any protection it may provide to the nation's bicycles.
    Setting aside the protection of bicycles and their owners, what identity documents, if any, are you required to carry/produce on demand?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited August 2013
    Just caught up with some news reports on the back of that headline and story behind the Indy front page. And it appears that it is in fact a Labour MP who is generating the publicity here by writing to Theresa May at the Home Office demanding an inquiry into these reports of this type of operation being carried out. So your claim that its the Tory party that is trying to generate some publicity that might appeal to UKIP waverers is slightly wide of the mark, its the Labour party who appears to be trying yet again to make this a party political issue.
    Neil said:


    Ah so these operations are separate from the "In the UK llegally?" vans?

    The only thing these two operations would appear to have in common is that they've both recently been used by the Tory party in order to generate publicity that might appeal to UKIP waverers.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited August 2013
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    The UK prefers, culturally, a voluntary system, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if carrying ID at all times wasn't mandatory.

    Yes, I got the sense you were rowing back from the suggestion I originally asked about a little while ago.
    Not so much "rowing back" as prepared to accept alternatives.

    If it was my decision I would require foreign nationals to carry ID at all times with a requirement that, if they didn't have ID on them, they may be detained and accompanied to their documents in the event of reasonable cause.

    That would give enforcers the option to follow through if they suspected on reasonable grounds that an offence had been committed.

    If the carrying of ID was then made optional the requirement to produce on reasonable request could still be applied together with the detain and accompany powers in the very small number of cases where this would be reasonable and necessary.

    Avery: Neil is not asking you the direct question possibly out of politeness. I have no such qualms. So, here goes:

    How would a foreign looking UK national prove that they were indeed UK natioinals ? So, each time, they would be "accompanied to their documents in the event of reasonable cause". In order to avoid this ritual humiliation they will probably carry their passport at all times with attendant problems of security [ i.e. losing their passport ]. Like the pass law in apartheid South Africa.

    So, basically, you are coming round to saying this: Foreign looking UK nationals should at all times carry their passports whereas White British need not. How you would you distinguish an illegal Russian or Canadian or Australian ? I do not know.

    Do the Tories really want to get any ethnic minority votes after that ? I think only TSE and Sunil will be left voting Tory in this country.

    It's the old story after each election. Tories here and Republicans in the US wailing why the EM do not vote for them despite their "family values". Well, if you have to carry a badge at all times and your other fellow citizens don't have to, you shouldn't be too surprised which party they would not vote for.

    Their is a simple word for this. It starts with an "R".
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:

    Their is a simple word for this. It starts with an "R".

    Rectum?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Sunil, if this story is true you're a suspect. So is everyone else in your family. How would that make you feel?

    If this story is true, Southam!

    Southam - another "diverse" part of the Kingdom!!
    Try not to deflect the question. Answer it straight.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited August 2013
    A few years ago, a good friend of mine was flying to America so he could be with his heavily pregnant American wife for the birth of their child. He was turned away from the flight at the departure desk of a Scottish airport just after he was waved off by his family as they didn't think he would be allowed to enter the country when the plane landed. He managed to finally arrive in America legally a few weeks later. On passing his driving test shortly after his arrival, this information was immediately fed into a computer data base. He was then within minutes of this happening, then arrested by local police and locked up for several hours until the computer mistake that flagged up his immigration status as illegal could be checked and verified as being a mistake.

    AveryLP said:

    Just on the practical effects of spot-checks based on racial profiling: Being put under suspicion on account of race doesn't feel nice, and will cause legal immigrants to distrust the British authorities. This will probably be a net negative even in terms of immigration enforcement, because it will make it harder to get reliable tip-offs and cooperation in following them up, which will be reasonably effective methods of enforcement. Worse, it will interfere with regular policing, which will mean more crime.

    But everybody already knows this.

    Edmondo

    Tell us what the rules are in Japan.
    I've never heard of immigration spot-checks, but what you hear about a lot is police stopping foreign-looking people on bicycles and asking them to prove they're not stolen. I'm certain the adverse results of the distrust this causes far outweighs any protection it may provide to the nation's bicycles.
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    edited August 2013
    Ynys Mon and Oz politics currently show personality and populism trump policy.
    Low satisfaction levels show that most of them are disliked, just that the others to vote against are disliked too.
    Time for Labour to get a popular leader; people rarely know or CARE what a good policy is anyway and just go with a gut feel about who they like.
    Closer the election is to the change the better so no major policy grey areas need to be worried about.
    Us anoraks care, but most people would not know a policy if it bit them on the "r" (as used below.)
    So, if we take things to the extreme and make it a popularity contest, as the media is wont to do as well, who is the most popular Labour candidate, and who is the most popular Tory and who is the most popular Liberal. This assumes Farage and Salmond are popular already.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    @Surbiton

    ...:

    How would a foreign looking UK national prove that they were indeed UK natioinals ? So, each time, they would be "accompanied to their documents in the event of reasonable cause". In order to avoid this ritual humiliation they will probably carry their passport at all times with attendant problems of security [ i.e. losing their passport ]. Like the pass law in apartheid South Africa.

    So, basically, you are coming round to saying this: Foreign looking UK nationals should at all times carry their passports whereas White British need not. How you would you distinguish an illegal Russian or Canadian or Australian ? I do not know.

    Do the Tories really want to get any ethnic minority votes after that ? I think only TSE and Sunil will be left voting Tory in this country.

    It's the old story after each election. Tories here and Republicans in the US wailing why the EM do not vote for them despite their "family values". Well, if you have to carry a badge at all times and your other fellow citizens don't have to, you shouldn't be too surprised which party they would not vote for.

    Their is a simple word for this. It starts with an "R".


    Surby

    This is a purely a matter of enforcing the law

    It doesn't matter how you look or where you or your family originate: what matters is whether you are residing in the UK legally.

    A range of people and organisations, from law enforcement officers to employers and landlords and health service providers need a means to establish whether a person is in this country legally.

    In the vast majority of cases legal residence and/or UK nationality can be very simply established.

    If you want to open an account with a bank in the UK then you will be asked for identity documents: the same requirements will apply whatever you look like, however you sound and whatever your ethnic identity.

    The idea that banks will be more demanding of identity verification if you "look foreign" is pernicious and absurd.

    No one is trying to "distinguish between an illegal Russian of Canadian or Australian". The objective is to establish whether a person's residence in the UK is lawful.

    This is nothing to do with apartheid South Africa or Republican attitudes to ethnic minorities. It is also nothing to with racism.

    You shame yourself and your party by trying to assert otherwise.



  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    AveryLP said:


    Setting aside the protection of bicycles and their owners, what identity documents, if any, are you required to carry/produce on demand?

    until recently we were required to have our "alien registration card"- the law has changed recently so now I'm not sure, maybe no longer required to carry documents.

    The Japanese police, for better or worse are fairly "dixon of dock green" (at least in my neck of the woods) so anybody who's new or stands out might be asked a few "ello ello" questions.

    (tbh I suspect this might be more instrusive for brazilian looking people, or people of darker skin colour than myself- they're not knwon for being a particularly liberal lot, yr Japanese police - excpet when it comes to the guys with the tattoos and interesting hats)


  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013

    AveryLP said:


    Setting aside the protection of bicycles and their owners, what identity documents, if any, are you required to carry/produce on demand?

    until recently we were required to have our "alien registration card"- the law has changed recently so now I'm not sure, maybe no longer required to carry documents.

    The Japanese police, for better or worse are fairly "dixon of dock green" (at least in my neck of the woods) so anybody who's new or stands out might be asked a few "ello ello" questions.

    (tbh I suspect this might be more instrusive for brazilian looking people, or people of darker skin colour than myself- they're not knwon for being a particularly liberal lot, yr Japanese police - excpet when it comes to the guys with the tattoos and interesting hats)

    I was guessing that there may be an identity document carrying requirement for foreign nationals.

    Edmondo's attempt to divert me onto bicycles made me even more suspicious, Never trust Edmondo when he is being "artful"!

    The police are the same throughout the world. Bankers are far more trustworthy!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,511
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Just on the practical effects of spot-checks based on racial profiling: Being put under suspicion on account of race doesn't feel nice, and will cause legal immigrants to distrust the British authorities. This will probably be a net negative even in terms of immigration enforcement, because it will make it harder to get reliable tip-offs and cooperation in following them up, which will be reasonably effective methods of enforcement. Worse, it will interfere with regular policing, which will mean more crime.

    But everybody already knows this.

    Edmondo

    Tell us what the rules are in Japan.
    I've never heard of immigration spot-checks, but what you hear about a lot is police stopping foreign-looking people on bicycles and asking them to prove they're not stolen. I'm certain the adverse results of the distrust this causes far outweighs any protection it may provide to the nation's bicycles.
    Setting aside the protection of bicycles and their owners, what identity documents, if any, are you required to carry/produce on demand?

    Foreigners are supposed to carry a foreigner registration card and produce it on demand. Japanese citizens don't have to carry ID. This means that if the Japanese authorities wanted to do immigration spot-checks, it would be theoretically possible to claim to be Japanese and say you didn't have to carry identification because you weren't foreign. I'm not sure what authority if any they'd have to arrest you if they didn't believe you, but I suspect their powers are quite broad.

    PS The bicycle thing isn't a diversion. You quoted my comment about racial profiling and asked about the situation in Japan, and I don't know of it being used here for immigration, but I do for random foreigners on bicycles.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe Anglo-Saxon should be taught in English primary schools.

    No, but surely English should.

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited August 2013
    AveryLP said:


    Edmondo's attempt to divert me onto bicycles made me even more suspicious, Never trust Edmondo when he is being "artful"!

    the bicycles thing is no diversion.

    the police do appear to spend 95% of their time on traffic matters..

    and I feel confident leaving my bicycle in public places with very little chance of it being taken (I'm not in Tokyo-maybe a little different there)

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,211

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Edmondo

    Tell us what the rules are in Japan.
    I've never heard of immigration spot-checks, but what you hear about a lot is police stopping foreign-looking people on bicycles and asking them to prove they're not stolen. I'm certain the adverse results of the distrust this causes far outweighs any protection it may provide to the nation's bicycles.
    Setting aside the protection of bicycles and their owners, what identity documents, if any, are you required to carry/produce on demand?

    Foreigners are supposed to carry a foreigner registration card and produce it on demand. Japanese citizens don't have to carry ID. This means that if the Japanese authorities wanted to do immigration spot-checks, it would be theoretically possible to claim to be Japanese and say you didn't have to carry identification because you weren't foreign. I'm not sure what authority if any they'd have to arrest you if they didn't believe you, but I suspect their powers are quite broad.

    PS The bicycle thing isn't a diversion. You quoted my comment about racial profiling and asked about the situation in Japan, and I don't know of it being used here for immigration, but I do for random foreigners on bicycles.

    Off-topic: bringing together the topics of immigration and bicycles, it used to be quite easy to detect the foreign language students who come to Cambridge over the summer by the number of young men and women cycling very badly.

    But only until the start of term, when the students come back and there's a new crop of freshers learning to cycle on Cambridge's streets. And the older students drunk and cycling.

    The problem is so bad that the council's produced a leaflet about the rules of the road:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-22987973
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596



    Off-topic: bringing together the topics of immigration and bicycles, it used to be quite easy to detect the foreign language students who come to Cambridge over the summer by the number of young men and women cycling very badly.

    these French, you know, they connect the right hand brake to the back wheel, and the left hand to the front. madness! (actually I've seen it in the US and Spain too.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,211



    Off-topic: bringing together the topics of immigration and bicycles, it used to be quite easy to detect the foreign language students who come to Cambridge over the summer by the number of young men and women cycling very badly.

    these French, you know, they connect the right hand brake to the back wheel, and the left hand to the front. madness! (actually I've seen it in the US and Spain too.)
    I hope someone patented the idea, they'll make a fortune! Perhaps one for SO...

    Says JJ, whose cycling is becoming severely curtailed by a rear hub that's slowly disintegrating. Too much off-roading along rutted tracks with a load ...
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 1st August - Con 34%, Lab 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%; APP -27
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL!
    JohnLoony said:

    (OT) Someone once asked me if I was bisexual, and I pointed out that I was only bisexual in the sense that I would probably have to buy sex in order to get any. But if Gareth Bale costs £105,000,000 then he's way out of my price range anyway.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    I really don't have much of a problem re the spot checks on immigration. The police did it when the terrorism threat was high and to be PC they stopped people who were statistically extremely unlikely to be bombers.

    This strikes me as particularly stupid. Stopping old white ladies for the sake of it at Tube stations is one thing - but I'm sure they're watched at ports as they may be bringing in drugs as mules or attempting to avoid tax because they look respectable. Ditto shoplifting bottles of gin in supermarkets.

    I've certainly seen more OAPs searched at airports than I'd have expected - if you wander through looking like a commune resident/dreads/with guitar it seems to be so obvious that the guards just glance and think - Nah.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596


    Says JJ, whose cycling is becoming severely curtailed by a rear hub that's slowly disintegrating. Too much off-roading along rutted tracks with a load ...

    Are you on a cycling tour of North Cornwall, JJ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,511
    Plato said:

    I really don't have much of a problem re the spot checks on immigration. The police did it when the terrorism threat was high and to be PC they stopped people who were statistically extremely unlikely to be bombers.

    This strikes me as particularly stupid. Stopping old white ladies for the sake of it at Tube stations is one thing - but I'm sure they're watched at ports as they may be bringing in drugs as mules or attempting to avoid tax because they look respectable. Ditto shoplifting bottles of gin in supermarkets.

    I've certainly seen more OAPs searched at airports than I'd have expected - if you wander through looking like a commune resident/dreads/with guitar it seems to be so obvious that the guards just glance and think - Nah.

    See Schneier on the airport case:
    http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2012/05/the_trouble_wit.html
    There's more on this in his discussion with Sam Harris.

    Illegal immigration spot checks are a slightly different case than the airport one - for example, you probably wouldn't change your appearance to avoid them, as you would with the terrorist case. The problem here is that without racially profiling you hardly ever meet an illegal immigrant, and even with you don't catch many (since non-foreigners don't have to carry ID and lots of non-foreigners fit the profile, so even when you question one you don't catch one), but in exchange for that you alienate the people you need to help you with the genuinely useful methods of enforcement, like tip-offs.
  • Plato said:

    I really don't have much of a problem re the spot checks on immigration. The police did it when the terrorism threat was high and to be PC they stopped people who were statistically extremely unlikely to be bombers.

    This strikes me as particularly stupid. Stopping old white ladies for the sake of it at Tube stations is one thing - but I'm sure they're watched at ports as they may be bringing in drugs as mules or attempting to avoid tax because they look respectable. Ditto shoplifting bottles of gin in supermarkets.

    I've certainly seen more OAPs searched at airports than I'd have expected - if you wander through looking like a commune resident/dreads/with guitar it seems to be so obvious that the guards just glance and think - Nah.

    See Schneier on the airport case:
    http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2012/05/the_trouble_wit.html
    There's more on this in his discussion with Sam Harris.

    Illegal immigration spot checks are a slightly different case than the airport one - for example, you probably wouldn't change your appearance to avoid them, as you would with the terrorist case. The problem here is that without racially profiling you hardly ever meet an illegal immigrant, and even with you don't catch many (since non-foreigners don't have to carry ID and lots of non-foreigners fit the profile, so even when you question one you don't catch one), but in exchange for that you alienate the people you need to help you with the genuinely useful methods of enforcement, like tip-offs.
    edmundintokyo ; do you favour the Japanese model ?

    http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2221.html
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    I know you shouldnt read too much into a single result, but I am feeling quite postive about next WA election - as I expect Plaid to make maxiumum use of Rhun to concentrate on increasing Plaid vote in Rural North and North West where they had lost some ground to the 'Welshish' Conservatives. Meanwhile in the South West, expect to see Adam Price rolled out not only to secure his own seat in Carmarthen East but to push for votes in adjoining Llanelli and Neath. While in the South East expect Leanne Wood to push out from her Rhondda base to increase vote in adjoining Valleys.

    I expect that this will be Plaid's best performance since 1999 although not quite matching it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Penddu said:

    I know you shouldnt read too much into a single result, but I am feeling quite postive about next WA election - as I expect Plaid to make maxiumum use of Rhun to concentrate on increasing Plaid vote in Rural North and North West where they had lost some ground to the 'Welshish' Conservatives. Meanwhile in the South West, expect to see Adam Price rolled out not only to secure his own seat in Carmarthen East but to push for votes in adjoining Llanelli and Neath. While in the South East expect Leanne Wood to push out from her Rhondda base to increase vote in adjoining Valleys.

    I expect that this will be Plaid's best performance since 1999 although not quite matching it.

    What's the balance of power in the WA now? And what do you think will happen at the next election?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Some stories really make me scratch my head. And this is the SFO - one would think they'd be a bit smarter than this.

    Bosses at the Serious Fraud Office secretly negotiated ‘irregular’ pay-offs for executives worth £1million by using personal email accounts to cover their tracks, the Daily Mail can reveal.

    The clandestine deals for senior civil servants were arranged by a handful of managers at the fraud-busting agency – in part through messages sent from private addresses – to prevent other staff from finding out.

    Sending emails from non-official accounts also made it far harder for them to be scrutinised by the public under the Freedom of Information Act, experts say.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2382901/Bosses-Fraud-Office-used-secret-e-mails-cover-1m-pay-offs-Civil-servants-used-private-addresses-prevent-staff-finding-out.html#ixzz2an2dKE4a
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138
    Lots of faux outrage over checks on illegals - I should guess most of the general public would think it's just common sense. Virgin post!!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,211


    Says JJ, whose cycling is becoming severely curtailed by a rear hub that's slowly disintegrating. Too much off-roading along rutted tracks with a load ...

    Are you on a cycling tour of North Cornwall, JJ?
    Sadly Ihaven't done North Cornwall for a few years now, and even then it was walking. A shame as it's a lovely area.

    Even further off-topic: my bike is a cheap so and so, but has lasted a fair few years of rough riding. However I had the rear hub rebuilt two years ago, and now it's gone again. Should I be environmentally unsound and buy a new (and better) bike, or do I spend the money getting the hub rebuilt, or just buy a new wheel (at a goodly proportion of a new cheap bike)?

    I hate throwing away a perfectly serviceable (if old) bike for want of a wheel ...
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596



    Sadly Ihaven't done North Cornwall for a few years now, and even then it was walking. A shame as it's a lovely area.

    Even further off-topic: my bike is a cheap so and so, but has lasted a fair few years of rough riding. However I had the rear hub rebuilt two years ago, and now it's gone again. Should I be environmentally unsound and buy a new (and better) bike, or do I spend the money getting the hub rebuilt, or just buy a new wheel (at a goodly proportion of a new cheap bike)?

    I hate throwing away a perfectly serviceable (if old) bike for want of a wheel ...

    sorry, I was throwing in a crafty reference to the monty python cycling tour, which your hub reminded me of:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Coi86g8bxE8

    depending on how standard/non-standard your wheel size you could maybe try ebay or something similar for a replacement wheel? rebuilding the hub sounds expensive
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    felix said:

    Lots of faux outrage over checks on illegals - I should guess most of the general public would think it's just common sense. Virgin post!!!

    Warm welcome "felix"

    Sadly like most virgin breaking activity yours was short and a wee bit disappointing but you feel better for having done it !!

    A great British principle founded on centuries of struggle is that we should be able to go about our business without being harassed by government officials. It's a principle that local, regional and national government need to be reminded of regularly.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,456
    Financier has uncharacteristically not mentioned the YouGov secondaries today. Let me help. "Seems rather old and tired" - Con 33, Lab 29, LD 12; "Heart in the right place" 22/29/15 (Labour net +2), "left past behind it" 17/19/6 (net shift to Labour +4), "Mainly appeals to one section of society" 51/21/8 (Tory "lead" up 4).

    I don't think any of these are especially significant except the massive 51% thinking the Tories are only for one part of society (which IMO is the fundamental reason they haven't won a majority for 21 years). Rather, they show the sample varying slightly. But it's worth bearing in mind next time they twitch the other way.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Whilst not exactly the apex of political analysis - Kevin Maguire sticks the boot in.

    "Three years ago I got a cheap laugh with a joke about Ed Miliband drinking Rose because he couldn't decide if he preferred Red or White wine.

    That I can make the same quip today and still get a giggle tells me something dangerous about Miliband as well as my own need for fresh material. The truth is the Labour leader isn't the decisive, dominant political figure he needs to become if he is to stroll into Downing Street.

    David Cameron and the Conservatives are there for the taking yet too often Miliband fails to land the killer punches. Labour MP George Mudie's "hesitant and confused" outburst stings because it rings true.

    The Tories are regularly allowed to call the shots because he Miliband doesn't know whether he is coming on going.

    Check out all the latest News, Sport & Celeb gossip at Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kevin-maguire-george-mudie-hesitant-2115729#ixzz2an8LTpOD
    Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,188
    I have it on good authority that there were some rather suspicious looking blokes impersonating Australian batsmen in Manchester yesterday. It was a very poor imitation as these chaps could actually bat. I think Border Force should get straight onto it.

    Random stopping of people seems an odd way to proceed. There must be better ways such as checking NI numbers with employers, HB claimants for eligibility, GP registrations for entitlement; school enrollments etc. How do you live in modern Britain without coming into contact with organs of the state on a regular basis? Maybe I am being naive about this and there are thriving sub cultures but it seems very difficult to me.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    Whilst not exactly the apex of political analysis - Kevin Maguire sticks the boot in.

    "Three years ago I got a cheap laugh with a joke about Ed Miliband drinking Rose because he couldn't decide if he preferred Red or White wine.

    That I can make the same quip today and still get a giggle tells me something dangerous about Miliband as well as my own need for fresh material. The truth is the Labour leader isn't the decisive, dominant political figure he needs to become if he is to stroll into Downing Street.

    David Cameron and the Conservatives are there for the taking yet too often Miliband fails to land the killer punches. Labour MP George Mudie's "hesitant and confused" outburst stings because it rings true.

    The Tories are regularly allowed to call the shots because he Miliband doesn't know whether he is coming on going.

    Check out all the latest News, Sport & Celeb gossip at Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kevin-maguire-george-mudie-hesitant-2115729#ixzz2an8LTpOD
    Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook

    Ouch .... poor old Kevin.

    He's been having a good old gawp at my ARSE again !!

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    This quote made me wince

    "his youthful team is dismissed as "Ed's creche" by frustrated MPs"

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kevin-maguire-george-mudie-hesitant-2115729#ixzz2an8wQHSj
    JackW said:

    Plato said:

    Whilst not exactly the apex of political analysis - Kevin Maguire sticks the boot in.

    "Three years ago I got a cheap laugh with a joke about Ed Miliband drinking Rose because he couldn't decide if he preferred Red or White wine.

    That I can make the same quip today and still get a giggle tells me something dangerous about Miliband as well as my own need for fresh material. The truth is the Labour leader isn't the decisive, dominant political figure he needs to become if he is to stroll into Downing Street.

    David Cameron and the Conservatives are there for the taking yet too often Miliband fails to land the killer punches. Labour MP George Mudie's "hesitant and confused" outburst stings because it rings true.

    The Tories are regularly allowed to call the shots because he Miliband doesn't know whether he is coming on going.

    Check out all the latest News, Sport & Celeb gossip at Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kevin-maguire-george-mudie-hesitant-2115729#ixzz2an8LTpOD
    Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook

    Ouch .... poor old Kevin.

    He's been having a good old gawp at my ARSE again !!

  • Plato said:

    Whilst not exactly the apex of political analysis - Kevin Maguire sticks the boot in.

    "Three years ago I got a cheap laugh with a joke about Ed Miliband drinking Rose because he couldn't decide if he preferred Red or White wine.

    That I can make the same quip today and still get a giggle tells me something dangerous about Miliband as well as my own need for fresh material. The truth is the Labour leader isn't the decisive, dominant political figure he needs to become if he is to stroll into Downing Street.

    David Cameron and the Conservatives are there for the taking yet too often Miliband fails to land the killer punches. Labour MP George Mudie's "hesitant and confused" outburst stings because it rings true.

    The Tories are regularly allowed to call the shots because he Miliband doesn't know whether he is coming on going.

    Check out all the latest News, Sport & Celeb gossip at Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kevin-maguire-george-mudie-hesitant-2115729#ixzz2an8LTpOD
    Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook

    Maguire is an Ed Balls apologist ;

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2013/01/why-ed-won’t-play-balls

    All is not well in Labour United.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,211
    edited August 2013



    Sadly Ihaven't done North Cornwall for a few years now, and even then it was walking. A shame as it's a lovely area.

    Even further off-topic: my bike is a cheap so and so, but has lasted a fair few years of rough riding. However I had the rear hub rebuilt two years ago, and now it's gone again. Should I be environmentally unsound and buy a new (and better) bike, or do I spend the money getting the hub rebuilt, or just buy a new wheel (at a goodly proportion of a new cheap bike)?

    I hate throwing away a perfectly serviceable (if old) bike for want of a wheel ...

    sorry, I was throwing in a crafty reference to the monty python cycling tour, which your hub reminded me of:

    (snippety snip)

    depending on how standard/non-standard your wheel size you could maybe try ebay or something similar for a replacement wheel? rebuilding the hub sounds expensive
    I didn't know Monty Python'd done a documentary on my life! ;-)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm not Camila Batmanghelidjh's biggest fan - but this column is worth reading if you're a Paywaller

    "...Something sick is happening in our care institutions. Social workers and child protection officers are becoming over-familiar and immune to the horrors of child abuse; they prioritise procedures and forms so “concerns” are recorded but not really dealt with. Social services try to ensure that their department won’t be “caught out” if something goes wrong. Many social workers do a brilliant job every day but they cannot sustain their good work in such a system. The professionals’ sense of alarm is not just paralysed by being witnesses to abuse, but also by the lack of resources to properly address the harm.

    Recently we came upon a case in which two teenagers pinned another child to the floor and penetrated him with their fingers. When we reported it to the local authority, we were told that it was nothing to worry about; it was common in schools across the borough. Only when Kids Company objected, did we receive an apology from the safeguarding officials for such complacency..." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3831850.ece

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,415
    JackW said:

    Plato said:

    Whilst not exactly the apex of political analysis - Kevin Maguire sticks the boot in.

    "The Tories are regularly allowed to call the shots because he Miliband doesn't know whether he is coming on going.

    Check out all the latest News, Sport & Celeb gossip at Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kevin-maguire-george-mudie-hesitant-2115729#ixzz2an8LTpOD
    Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook

    Ouch .... poor old Kevin.

    He's been having a good old gawp at my ARSE again !!

    "he Miliband"...Maguire channeling Hilary Mantel
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,511

    Plato said:

    I really don't have much of a problem re the spot checks on immigration. The police did it when the terrorism threat was high and to be PC they stopped people who were statistically extremely unlikely to be bombers.

    This strikes me as particularly stupid. Stopping old white ladies for the sake of it at Tube stations is one thing - but I'm sure they're watched at ports as they may be bringing in drugs as mules or attempting to avoid tax because they look respectable. Ditto shoplifting bottles of gin in supermarkets.

    I've certainly seen more OAPs searched at airports than I'd have expected - if you wander through looking like a commune resident/dreads/with guitar it seems to be so obvious that the guards just glance and think - Nah.

    See Schneier on the airport case:
    http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2012/05/the_trouble_wit.html
    There's more on this in his discussion with Sam Harris.

    Illegal immigration spot checks are a slightly different case than the airport one - for example, you probably wouldn't change your appearance to avoid them, as you would with the terrorist case. The problem here is that without racially profiling you hardly ever meet an illegal immigrant, and even with you don't catch many (since non-foreigners don't have to carry ID and lots of non-foreigners fit the profile, so even when you question one you don't catch one), but in exchange for that you alienate the people you need to help you with the genuinely useful methods of enforcement, like tip-offs.
    edmundintokyo ; do you favour the Japanese model ?

    http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2221.html
    Not generally, but what aspect of it? IIUC they don't do racial profiling spot-checks for immigration violations. In other areas, spouse visa procedures seem OK, permanent residence procedures are fine, naturalization procedures seem crazy weird, lack of dual citizenship is unfortunate, fingerprinting as a terrorism measure is silly, treatment of refugees is appauling.
  • Penddu said:

    I know you shouldnt read too much into a single result, but I am feeling quite postive about next WA election - as I expect Plaid to make maxiumum use of Rhun to concentrate on increasing Plaid vote in Rural North and North West where they had lost some ground to the 'Welshish' Conservatives. Meanwhile in the South West, expect to see Adam Price rolled out not only to secure his own seat in Carmarthen East but to push for votes in adjoining Llanelli and Neath. While in the South East expect Leanne Wood to push out from her Rhondda base to increase vote in adjoining Valleys.

    I expect that this will be Plaid's best performance since 1999 although not quite matching it.

    To really make maximum use of Rhun they should make him leader ASAP.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Plato

    And it's going to get worse for Ed.

    As the clock ticks down to the GE and the Labour lead and prospects wither away quicker than ice in a heatwave then we shall see more of the internal Labour struggles break out. Confidence will ebb, MP's will become fractious and the stark reality of defeat will have to be faced.

    But frankly many of us have known this situation was coming from day one of Ed's faltering leadership of the Labour party.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265

    Byelection restores 30-30 balance between WLab and others.

    It is too early to make specific predictions for next election, but if it was held tomorrow I would expect a modest Plaid increase, small reductions for Labour and Conservatives - extinction for LDs and first seats for UKIP.

    UKIP presence would effectively rule out a rainbow alliance so I would see another Labour-Plaid alliance as the most likely outcome
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Conference will be key I suspect.

    John Cruddas IIRC is still in charge of Policy Formulation Mk 4 after the others fell by the wayside.

    EdM needs some shiny things for the activists - I suspect whatever he says the grumbling will start again in the run up to the putative Spring Conf.

    The key question is what technical hitch will befall his speech - when the live tv feed committed suicide a couple of years ago - I couldn't help feeling Fate had intervened.
    JackW said:

    @Plato

    And it's going to get worse for Ed.

    As the clock ticks down to the GE and the Labour lead and prospects wither away quicker than ice in a heatwave then we shall see more of the internal Labour struggles break out. Confidence will ebb, MP's will become fractious and the stark reality of defeat will have to be faced.

    But frankly many of us have known this situation was coming from day one of Ed's faltering leadership of the Labour party.

  • JackW said:

    @Plato

    And it's going to get worse for Ed.

    As the clock ticks down to the GE and the Labour lead and prospects wither away quicker than ice in a heatwave then we shall see more of the internal Labour struggles break out. Confidence will ebb, MP's will become fractious and the stark reality of defeat will have to be faced.

    But frankly many of us have known this situation was coming from day one of Ed's faltering leadership of the Labour party.

    It seems to me that Labour/Unite chose Ed Miliband simply to spite annoying Blair mimic David Miliband. They will reap what they have sown.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Just thinking about Conf Seasons Past - I'm trying to recall the high/lowlights of last couple.

    There was EdM's tv feed, dog licences for journalists, predators vs producers and predistribution for Labour

    And the LD's front bench comedy club line-up - with special mention to Sarah Teather.

    And we had Mrs May and Ken fighting over the cat, but that's about it

    More favourite memories, anyone?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Penddu said:

    I know you shouldnt read too much into a single result, but I am feeling quite postive about next WA election - as I expect Plaid to make maxiumum use of Rhun to concentrate on increasing Plaid vote in Rural North and North West where they had lost some ground to the 'Welshish' Conservatives. Meanwhile in the South West, expect to see Adam Price rolled out not only to secure his own seat in Carmarthen East but to push for votes in adjoining Llanelli and Neath. While in the South East expect Leanne Wood to push out from her Rhondda base to increase vote in adjoining Valleys.

    I expect that this will be Plaid's best performance since 1999 although not quite matching it.

    What's the balance of power in the WA now? And what do you think will happen at the next election?
    @Plato

    Current state of play (60 seats) is Labour: 30, Cons:14, PC: 11; LD:5

    Seats are elected by FPTP at 40 constituencies: and 20 from regional lists.

    "In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote may be used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote may be used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional." Source: WikiP.

    AT the 2011 Election, turnout was 42.2%!!

    At the constituency level (40 seats): Labour won 28 seats with 42.8% of the vote, Cons: 6 with 25%; PC: 5 with 19.3% and LD: 1 with 10.6%.

    At the regional level (20 seats), Labour won 2 seats with 36.9% of the vote; Cons won 8 seats with 22.5% of the vote; PC: 6 with 17.9% and LD: 4 with 8%.

    So, as happened last time, a party can gain a seat at constituency level but lose one at regional level due to the d'Hondt method.

    Labour does not have a majority and relied on the LDs to pass its last budget.

    Next election is 2016 so as not to clash with the 2015GE.

    So what will happen next time, your guess is as good as mine, Gunga Dina.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,497
    Good morning, everyone.

    Benson's written an interesting piece about Hamilton's title hopes, but I must disagree with this segment:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23529385

    "As has been proved time and again, vulnerabilities show, both in his driving and in his mentality, when Vettel has to fight in the pack - as they did in Hungary, when he damaged his front wing on Jenson Button's McLaren and finished third when he might have challenged Hamilton for the win. "

    I think it was Monza last year when Vettel was in the pack and executed numerous excellent passes. He also rose significantly through the ranks at Interlagos, and Hungary is a circuit where overtaking is very hard (only Hamilton, of the frontrunner, consistently managed it when he needed to).

    Earlier this season Alonso clipped the back of a car and damaged his front wing, but the myth of Vettel not being able to drive in traffic means his instance of doing this (which, unlike Alonso's, didn't end his race) means it gets used to reinforce a preconception. Vettel is best at the front, partly because the Red Bull philosophy is low top speed, maximum downforce and escaping the DRS zone swiftly, but then, most people are best from the front.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,969
    edited August 2013
    Penddu said:


    Byelection restores 30-30 balance between WLab and others.

    It is too early to make specific predictions for next election, but if it was held tomorrow I would expect a modest Plaid increase, small reductions for Labour and Conservatives - extinction for LDs and first seats for UKIP.

    UKIP presence would effectively rule out a rainbow alliance so I would see another Labour-Plaid alliance as the most likely outcome

    When is the next WA election? After all, a week is a long time in politics.

    I also think the LD's are going to have to have a serious think about things.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    @Financier @Penddu

    Many thanks for the info and views - very helpful.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,188
    The NIESR are the latest to upgrade their forecasts for the UK economy, by a failry hefty 0.3% for this year and next. The upgrade for this year is notable as we are a lot more than half way through it and the upgrade is of an estimate only 3 months old. This shows how fast perceptions are changing.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10216829/NIESR-upgrades-UK-economy-but-warns-on-consumer-spending.html

    It will give both of the Eds a lot more difficult context for their Conference speeches than they have enjoyed for the last two years. No doubt we will hear a lot about "wasted opportunities", "lost years" and "falling living standards" (although the NIESR is now forecasting real growth in earnings next year as well) but it is going to be more difficult to get traction.

    The way to address this is surely to have some meaningful policy announcements but the reluctance to do this is palpable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    An interesting YouGov poll on government spending and waste:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e7n6v7tjc9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290713-government-waste.pdf

    Broadly, "they're all rubbish" - but intriguing differences start to emerge when asked about waste in public vs private provision of services.

    More waste in public provision (net)
    Hospitals: +3
    Schools: +4
    Police: -9
    Pensions:+1

    Minor differences, to be sure - but a lot closer than I would have guessed.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Plato & @MonierDiCanio

    The Labour goose is cooked but it's been slow cooked for the past three years with almost two still to go. Ed has been a recipe for disaster from the day the unions put the final skewer into the pre-oven meat course. They thought they'd bought a winner but forgot you can't make a silk purse from goose giblets !!

    Gobble gobble ....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013

    Penddu said:


    Byelection restores 30-30 balance between WLab and others.

    It is too early to make specific predictions for next election, but if it was held tomorrow I would expect a modest Plaid increase, small reductions for Labour and Conservatives - extinction for LDs and first seats for UKIP.

    UKIP presence would effectively rule out a rainbow alliance so I would see another Labour-Plaid alliance as the most likely outcome

    When is the next WA election? After all, a week is a long time in politics.

    I also think the LD's are going to have to have a serious think about things.
    I always thought of Wales as quite a LD powerbase - wrongly or rightly, but it seems to have fallen away. What's going on over there?

    I thought a recent comment by another PBer about the *managerialism* of Welsh Labour vs their more *mafia* type colleagues in Scotland was fascinating.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Matthew Bayley @MattBayleySky
    Great scoop from @JasonFarrellSky - 40 NHS trusts admit they allow personal injury lawyers to advertise in hospitals despite government ban
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,211
    It seems to me that all the parties are suffering from a lack of vision. There seems to be no strategic direction from any of them, except perhaps UKIP.

    The Conservatives have trying to fix the economy, but they're even doing that half-heartedly. And after that, what?

    Labour appear to have no strategy except attacking the Tories.

    The Lib Dems seem to be kyboshed by the fact they actually have power.

    People want vision. They want to see a path to a better future and a better country. All the parties appear to be so ingrained in the minutiae of politics that they are forgetting the bigger picture.
  • JackW said:

    @Plato & @MonierDiCanio

    The Labour goose is cooked but it's been slow cooked for the past three years with almost two still to go. Ed has been a recipe for disaster from the day the unions put the final skewer into the pre-oven meat course. They thought they'd bought a winner but forgot you can't make a silk purse from goose giblets !!

    Gobble gobble ....

    Ed M is and has always been a turkey.

    Gobble gobble.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What is missing from almost all of Labour's messaging is anything positive - lots of knocking and carping but little else.

    I wasn't aware that Mr Mudie was one of the first to call for Blair's head - but his comments yesterday made perfect sense to me, I've been saying the same for months.

    What EdM announces at conference will be scrutinised to bits for its cost - there are so many things that are already supposedly paid for by a Bankers Tax one wonders why any of us need PAYE at all.
    DavidL said:

    The NIESR are the latest to upgrade their forecasts for the UK economy, by a failry hefty 0.3% for this year and next. The upgrade for this year is notable as we are a lot more than half way through it and the upgrade is of an estimate only 3 months old. This shows how fast perceptions are changing.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10216829/NIESR-upgrades-UK-economy-but-warns-on-consumer-spending.html

    It will give both of the Eds a lot more difficult context for their Conference speeches than they have enjoyed for the last two years. No doubt we will hear a lot about "wasted opportunities", "lost years" and "falling living standards" (although the NIESR is now forecasting real growth in earnings next year as well) but it is going to be more difficult to get traction.

    The way to address this is surely to have some meaningful policy announcements but the reluctance to do this is palpable.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    One other interesting bit from the YouGov "waste" survey:

    "Thinking specifically about waste (rather than whether government policies are right or wrong), in which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think most government waste occurs?"

    Welfare: 52
    Immigration: 51
    Health: 30
    Local Govt: 20

    While there are differences between party VI - the top 3 are the same across all parties.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Round 7

    Danny Shaw @DannyShawBBC
    Ten men charged with sexually exploiting five teenage girls aged 16-18 at various locations across Coventry.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    Penddu said:


    Byelection restores 30-30 balance between WLab and others.

    It is too early to make specific predictions for next election, but if it was held tomorrow I would expect a modest Plaid increase, small reductions for Labour and Conservatives - extinction for LDs and first seats for UKIP.

    UKIP presence would effectively rule out a rainbow alliance so I would see another Labour-Plaid alliance as the most likely outcome

    When is the next WA election? After all, a week is a long time in politics.

    I also think the LD's are going to have to have a serious think about things.
    I always thought of Wales as quite a LD powerbase - wrongly or rightly, but it seems to have fallen away. What's going on over there?

    I thought a recent comment by another PBer about the *managerialism* of Welsh Labour vs their more *mafia* type colleagues in Scotland was fascinating.
    It's been many a long male voice choir since Wales was a power base for the Libs/Dems. Essentially until around 2005 their support was largely restricted to some of their historic rural strongholds. More recently, and much like England, they've expanded into pockets of the university towns and cities.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    None of our PB Tory experts on Labour politics prepared to tell us what documents non whit Londoners should be carrying today?

    You'd think people who actually believe they saw black coffee and black bin liners banned in the 80's would have thought about this and have prepared an evidence based approach


    I think it is because contributors to the site are getting wise to the fact that you will try and divert the conversation away from anything that pops up on the site that is bad for Labour.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    @Plato & @MonierDiCanio

    The Labour goose is cooked but it's been slow cooked for the past three years with almost two still to go. Ed has been a recipe for disaster from the day the unions put the final skewer into the pre-oven meat course. They thought they'd bought a winner but forgot you can't make a silk purse from goose giblets !!

    Gobble gobble ....

    Ed M is and has always been a turkey.

    Gobble gobble.

    Sadly for Labour they will have to learn that turkeys, much like puppies, are not just for Christmas .... although Ed certainly is the gift that keeps on giving and all gift wrapped for the Coalition by the unions.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,497
    MIldly amusing Ashton piece here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23514483

    BBC chap marvels at how amazing she/the EU is, the comments are filled with people annoyed that she was unelected and that she and the EU are unaccountable.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited August 2013
    NEW THREAD

    "JackW Readies Himself"
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Penddu said:


    Byelection restores 30-30 balance between WLab and others.

    It is too early to make specific predictions for next election, but if it was held tomorrow I would expect a modest Plaid increase, small reductions for Labour and Conservatives - extinction for LDs and first seats for UKIP.

    UKIP presence would effectively rule out a rainbow alliance so I would see another Labour-Plaid alliance as the most likely outcome

    When is the next WA election? After all, a week is a long time in politics.

    I also think the LD's are going to have to have a serious think about things.
    I always thought of Wales as quite a LD powerbase - wrongly or rightly, but it seems to have fallen away. What's going on over there?

    I thought a recent comment by another PBer about the *managerialism* of Welsh Labour vs their more *mafia* type colleagues in Scotland was fascinating.
    @Plato:

    At Westminster level the LDs hold 3 seats: Cardiff Central (Maj. 4,576 over Labour), Brecon -part of Powys (Maj: 3,747 over Cons) and Ceredigion (Maj.8,324 over Plaid).

    At WA level, they were the junior partner in the Coalition with Labour at the first assembly, and since then have lost their way even with their newish leader. (1999: 6 seats, 2003: 6; 2007: 6 and 2011: 5).

    At Council level, LDs in the country areas have lost way to PC and Cons, but the scene is confused as for example Powys (mainly Montgomery & Brecon) and Ceredigion have a lot of Independent Councillors, as in Ynys Mon.

    In Wales, LDs were more old-fashioned Liberal than LD and the personality and character of the incumbent can count for a lot at election time. However, they have been accused of being Labour's moll (when Labour needs them) and many people are uncertain what they stand for, whereas both PC and Cons are more finite in their policies - even if you do not like them.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Edmondo

    Tell us what the rules are in Japan.
    I've never heard of immigration spot-checks, but what you hear about a lot is police stopping foreign-looking people on bicycles and asking them to prove they're not stolen. I'm certain the adverse results of the distrust this causes far outweighs any protection it may provide to the nation's bicycles.
    Setting aside the protection of bicycles and their owners, what identity documents, if any, are you required to carry/produce on demand?

    Foreigners are supposed to carry a foreigner registration card and produce it on demand. Japanese citizens don't have to carry ID. This means that if the Japanese authorities wanted to do immigration spot-checks, it would be theoretically possible to claim to be Japanese and say you didn't have to carry identification because you weren't foreign. I'm not sure what authority if any they'd have to arrest you if they didn't believe you, but I suspect their powers are quite broad.

    PS The bicycle thing isn't a diversion. You quoted my comment about racial profiling and asked about the situation in Japan, and I don't know of it being used here for immigration, but I do for random foreigners on bicycles.
    Off-topic: bringing together the topics of immigration and bicycles, it used to be quite easy to detect the foreign language students who come to Cambridge over the summer by the number of young men and women cycling very badly.

    But only until the start of term, when the students come back and there's a new crop of freshers learning to cycle on Cambridge's streets. And the older students drunk and cycling.

    The problem is so bad that the council's produced a leaflet about the rules of the road:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-22987973

    Cycling in Cambridge........ decades ago flatmates and I hosted a party, inviting many friends. Among those friends was a very quiet young fellow who seldom consumed alcohol. Everyone "had a good time". When we met our quiet friend the next day he was puzzled as to how he had got home. When he had got up that morning, his bicycle front wheel was so badly buckled that it would not rotate!

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