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First, and as I'll probably be out of convenient internet access for a few days, my last.on this topic!

Was it cross-overs/three quidders which got Corbyn elected?

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

Since these hypothetical Democrats probably wouldn't vote for Cruz or Rubio either, who would they support? Why, of course, for that favorite son of the Empire State and one of the few high-profile pro-choice Republicans around.

George Pataki, come on down. Your moment has arrived at last.

viewcode said:

AndyJS said:

viewcode said:

AndyJS said:

My favourite Charles Dance performance was in the 1988 BBC TV series "First Born" (which I think is available to watch on YouTube). One of the creepiest things I've ever watched.

Christ, I thought I was the only one who remembered that!

John Loony is a big fan of it as well IIRC.

I learn something new every day, thank you.

It was broadcast in 1988 but the three episodes were set in 1975, 1980 and 1993 - so it was partly futuristic science-fiction. It was sort-of creepy if you're squeamish, but it was essentially a morality story in warning what can happen if scientists play with technology without thinking through the consequences. I remember the usual narrow-mined people writing in to "Points of View" to say how disgusting it was, even before they had watched it.

(From Previous Thread)

Philip_Thompson said:

You would have to be aged 105 or above to have known the UK out of the EEC/EU etc for most of your adult life if the referendum is next year. I doubt that don't know centurions are that large a swing vote.

There are far more don't-know centenarians than don't-know centurions.

On topic, it's a scenario worth watching for but one to keep in the back rather than the forefront of the mind.

Tactical voting and gameplaying is a complex business and a natural supporters of Party / Candidate A will only support B to stop C if:

1. There is a natural alignment of interests between A and B.
2. B is seen as a close second preference to A, with C much more disliked.
3. B is seen as having a good chance of beating C, while A is not.

One reason why the Lib Dems did so disastrously in 2015 is because they'd built up sizable tactical votes based on the above assumptions, which then all fell apart this year.

In the US it's even more complex given that there are two simultaneous contests, one for each party, which means that there's a fourth criterion: that the opportunity cost in voting for B to stop C does not excessively adversely affect candidate A in the parallel race.

Mike's assertion that "if the objective is to stop Trump then it will be the Republican opponent who looks best able to win [who will benefit most]" is right but it's a mighty big 'if'. Are Democrats really that keen to drop Cruz or Rubio into the nomination when they may well be stronger candidates and are of the Republican right (and very much so in Cruz's case)? Besides, at the moment there is no candidate who looks best able to stop Trump: they're too closely clustered.

And then there's the impact Mike rightly notes on the Democrat race. While on the one hand Hillary looks to have the nomination all but sown up, that's not reflected in NH itself. Sanders could easily win there and is almost certain to poll strongly. Put another way, Democrats in the state do have an interest in influencing their own race: will they see the Republican contest as so critical that it overrides their ability to vote for Hillary or Sanders and potentially hand that contest to their less-favoured candidate?

Finally, there's the mechanics of this: how is it to come about? Organic, voter-driven dynamics are just about the only way. No candidate could endorse such a scheme which would look desperate and would in all probability be counter-productive (or at the least, an ineffective way of spending cash). Can such a grass-roots campaign be effective? Again, it's asking a lot.

However, having said all that, the Democrat contest is on a knife-edge with just a couple of points in it, so even small factors need to be taken into account and if there is differential switching between Hillary's and Sanders' supporters, that may affect the outcome, particularly as - as Mike implies - it's Hillary's supporters, with their eye on November, who'd be most likely to crossover.

david_herdson said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

The convention that the former MP's party controls when the by-election is is just that: a convention. If no new party had been formed, on the assumption that these MPs want the moderates to retake control of Labour rather than form an alternative, then Corbyn (or Rosie Winterton) would probably be well within their rights to move the writs anyway.

In December 2010 the LDs moved the writ for Oldham E & Saddleworth even though it was ostensibly a Labour seat. Any one of the 650 MPs has the power to move the writ when a vacancy occurs.

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

The convention that the former MP's party controls when the by-election is is just that: a convention. If no new party had been formed, on the assumption that these MPs want the moderates to retake control of Labour rather than form an alternative, then Corbyn (or Rosie Winterton) would probably be well within their rights to move the writs anyway.

In December 2010 the LDs moved the writ for Oldham E & Saddleworth even though it was ostensibly a Labour seat. Any one of the 650 MPs has the power to move the writ when a vacancy occurs.

The whole business of writ-moving is anachronistic and ought to be changed anyway. Rather than the silly sort of game-playing for the most convenient date, it'd have been far more sensible if it had been included in one of the electoral reform bills that by-elections occur on a date prescribed in law, as GE's now do. For example,

A by-election will be held on the eighth Thursday following a vacancy unless:
- That date falls between the fourth Thursday in July and the first Thursday in September (inclusive), in which case the election will be the second Thursday in September.
- That date falls between the fourth Thursday in December and the second Thursday in January (inclusive), in which case the election will be the third Thursday in January.
- A scheduled election covering the entire district for which the vacancy exists is already scheduled at a point between four and eight weeks ahead. In such circumstances, the new by-election shall be held concurrently with the already scheduled election.
- The election would be scheduled within the last four months of the natural term of the former office-holder, in which the vacancy will be left open until the naturally-scheduled election,

Or some such similar set of rules.

Morning. Surely Democrat leaners would like to see Trump as the Republican candidate, in the same way as the Tories in the UK would like to see Corbyn stay until the next General Election?

Sandpit said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

Yes, but Labour MPs have demonstrated a serious inability to do that in recent years, remember when Purnell resigned on his own?

If they really have the balls then half plus one defections will rob Corbyn of the LotO title, but again I can't see the MPs having anything but loyalty to their party even as it is taken over around them. By the time the deselections start it will be too late.

Thanks to FPTP Labour MPs that want a centre left alternative to the Tories have little choice but to remain with Labour. There is more chance that deluded members will come to their senses than there is that a new party will get anywhere. The hard left remains a rump and can be defeated.

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hard left remains a rump and can be defeated.

How, when they control all the key Party machinery?

Because in the end it does come down to the members - most of whom are not on the far left. Currently, they are in a state of grief-stricken delusion and have convinced themselves nice, polite Mr Corbyn wants nothing more than a civilised debate and a broad church, and that everything is Tony Blair's fault. That will not always be the case. Trade unions, especially, have a hell of a lot to lose from perpetual Tory rule.

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hard left remains a rump and can be defeated.

How, when they control all the key Party machinery?

They need to persuade the unions, though the left seem to have as much of a grasp there too, and it's harder for moderates to take them back given the other issues involved in union elections.

SouthamObserver said:

A few (Frank Field, say) might be able to stand and win, but most would not have the name recognition or the apparatus to run as Independent Labour, and would merely split the party's vote.

You'd need someone with:

- a reasonable Labour majority to defend
- a centrist local party
- a good personal reputation

and it might be nice if you also had a local LibDem vote to squeeze. (Not that there are many seats like that anymore.)

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

A few (Frank Field, say) might be able to stand and win, but most would not have the name recognition or the apparatus to run as Independent Labour, and would merely split the party's vote.

You'd need someone with:

- a reasonable Labour majority to defend
- a centrist local party
- a good personal reputation

and it might be nice if you also had a local LibDem vote to squeeze. (Not that there are many seats like that anymore.)

Thinking that over: if they had a centrist local party, then they wouldn't have been deselected in the first place. D'oh!

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. B, could be wrong, but I think filming started a couple of months ago.

That 30 million will include people who would've got Amazon Prime anyway (it gets pushed an obnoxious amount when you're checking out), but it still sounds pretty high. The viewing figures exceeded 300m, indeed, they exceeded the F1 global audience. Be interesting to see the approach Amazon takes on series DVDs.

The last New Hampshire poll from ARG actually had Trump doing slightly better with independents than Republicans in New Hampshire. In any case just as there were 'Tories for Corbyn' there may well be 'Democrats for Trump' who may well vote in the GOP primary to help him beat Rubio, a more dangerous opponent for them

Malmesbury said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

I don't see this.

As Labour unwinds from it's historical high point (the Atlee government - which imposed a savage austerity undreamed of by G Osborne....) it has become ever more insistent about being a moral crusade. For something. And one can never leave the crusade - it is a blood oath....

Blair seemed to offer them a chance to become the SPD(*) of UK politics. They can't go that way, again. That road is blocked.

All they have left is screaming "we are not the Tories". Louder and louder. Anyone who leaves will be a heretic to the faith. All such will be stoned to death....

Labour is lucky in one thing - that UKIP is fringe party which hasn't reached the organisational level of the Greens. Otherwise it would go through them like a chainsaw through cheese.

(*) Not a mis-spelling

Albeit the Attlee government nationalised almost everything in site unlike Osborne

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

Yes, but Labour MPs have demonstrated a serious inability to do that in recent years, remember when Purnell resigned on his own?

If they really have the balls then half plus one defections will rob Corbyn of the LotO title, but again I can't see the MPs having anything but loyalty to their party even as it is taken over around them. By the time the deselections start it will be too late.

Thanks to FPTP Labour MPs that want a centre left alternative to the Tories have little choice but to remain with Labour. There is more chance that deluded members will come to their senses than there is that a new party will get anywhere. The hard left remains a rump and can be defeated.

An interesting perspective. How long do you think the party members will favour ideological purity over electability though, and what will the moderates do if they all get deselected once the boundary changes come in?

There must be a reasonable chance in a few safe seats of the popular incumbent MP standing as an independent if deselected, or will they all meekly disappear?

A few (Frank Field, say) might be able to stand and win, but most would not have the name recognition or the apparatus to run as Independent Labour, and would merely split the party's vote.

Agree with you about Field, I'd vote for him. Do the moderate MPs think that the deselections won't happen? They only need to look at the Syria vote, where a "free vote" turned out not to be free of consequences for those who chose to exercise it on a matter of conscience.

It seems clear that Corbyn and his fellow travellers won't stop until they have expunged anyone with remotely mainstream views from the party, why don't the moderate MPs have the balls to stand up to it? Will the rumoured reshuffle focus their minds I wonder, with rumoured promotion for Diane Abbot and talk of Livingstone and Galloway being back in the party, they must realise that they have to act now or never - if only to save their own careers!

Livingstone is still a Labour member isn't he - he was allowed back under Blair and is co-chairing Labour's defence review.

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

I don't see this.

As Labour unwinds from it's historical high point (the Atlee government - which imposed a savage austerity undreamed of by G Osborne....) it has become ever more insistent about being a moral crusade. For something. And one can never leave the crusade - it is a blood oath....

Blair seemed to offer them a chance to become the SPD(*) of UK politics. They can't go that way, again. That road is blocked.

All they have left is screaming "we are not the Tories". Louder and louder. Anyone who leaves will be a heretic to the faith. All such will be stoned to death....

Labour is lucky in one thing - that UKIP is fringe party which hasn't reached the organisational level of the Greens. Otherwise it would go through them like a chainsaw through cheese.

(*) Not a mis-spelling

Albeit the Attlee government nationalised almost everything in site unlike Osborne

almost everything in site

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

I don't see this.

As Labour unwinds from it's historical high point (the Atlee government - which imposed a savage austerity undreamed of by G Osborne....) it has become ever more insistent about being a moral crusade. For something. And one can never leave the crusade - it is a blood oath....

Blair seemed to offer them a chance to become the SPD(*) of UK politics. They can't go that way, again. That road is blocked.

All they have left is screaming "we are not the Tories". Louder and louder. Anyone who leaves will be a heretic to the faith. All such will be stoned to death....

Labour is lucky in one thing - that UKIP is fringe party which hasn't reached the organisational level of the Greens. Otherwise it would go through them like a chainsaw through cheese.

(*) Not a mis-spelling

Albeit the Attlee government nationalised almost everything in site unlike Osborne

almost everything in site

Sight then, I will blame the smartphone predictive text

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

The last New Hampshire poll from ARG actually had Trump doing slightly better with independents than Republicans in New Hampshire. In any case just as there were 'Tories for Corbyn' there may well be 'Democrats for Trump' who may well vote in the GOP primary to help him beat Rubio, a more dangerous opponent for them

Trump attracts many people who have never bothered to vote before, and there is a vague concern on how many of his people will actually turn out, particularly in the peculiar oddness that is the Iowa caucuses, which takes a lot longer than merely casting a vote in a primary.

I think Cruz will likely win Iowa though it will be tight but New Hampshire and South Carolina will see some new voters backing Trump in all likelihood, like Corbyn he seems to have attracted some new supporters who have not previously voted in internal party battles

Just found out that cruise ship Oasis of the Seas loads 10,000 rolls of toilet paper for a 7 day cruise.

Prepared for the novovirus

Tim_B said:

Just found out that cruise ship Oasis of the Seas loads 10,000 rolls of toilet paper for a 7 day cruise.

HYUFD said:

A band of 4 MPs, comprising Pete Wishart of the SNP, Kevin Brennan of Labour and Tories Sir Greg Knight and former Labour MP Ian Cawsey are budding to represent the UK in the Eurovision song contest

budding - you need a new phone

Interesting thought though - beats that Israeli transvestite.

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Corbyn has called for annual TV debates with the PM and other party leaders

Does he think that people will come to love him more when they really find out what he believes in?

Dave should immediately call his bluff, say it's a fantastic idea and he's looking forward to the first debate!

Mr. HYUFD, saw that on the papers last night. Vacuous tosh. Debates are bad enough in an election.

Still, better for Corbyn to discuss that than his friends in Hamas, his unilateralism, desire to abolish the army or quoting Mao.

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

I don't see this.

As Labour unwinds from it's historical high point (the Atlee government - which imposed a savage austerity undreamed of by G Osborne....) it has become ever more insistent about being a moral crusade. For something. And one can never leave the crusade - it is a blood oath....

Blair seemed to offer them a chance to become the SPD(*) of UK politics. They can't go that way, again. That road is blocked.

All they have left is screaming "we are not the Tories". Louder and louder. Anyone who leaves will be a heretic to the faith. All such will be stoned to death....

Labour is lucky in one thing - that UKIP is fringe party which hasn't reached the organisational level of the Greens. Otherwise it would go through them like a chainsaw through cheese.

(*) Not a mis-spelling

Albeit the Attlee government nationalised almost everything in site unlike Osborne

almost everything in site

Sight then, I will blame the smartphone predictive text

We've all done it - just couldn't resist a smile

Something for me to look forward to when my son lets me have his current smartphone (there's a family cascade in prospect, alas)

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

Yes, but Labour MPs have demonstrated a serious inability to do that in recent years, remember when Purnell resigned on his own?

If they really have the balls then half plus one defections will rob Corbyn of the LotO title, but again I can't see the MPs having anything but loyalty to their party even as it is taken over around them. By the time the deselections start it will be too late.

Thanks to FPTP Labour MPs that want a centre left alternative to the Tories have little choice but to remain with Labour. There is more chance that deluded members will come to their senses than there is that a new party will get anywhere. The hard left remains a rump and can be defeated.

It's a pretty sad state of affairs when the unions are the most moderate voice in the Labour Party.

Plato_Says said:

And just think, it was the big unions that helped Kinnock defeat Militant.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

Yes, but Labour MPs have demonstrated a serious inability to do that in recent years, remember when Purnell resigned on his own?

If they really have the balls then half plus one defections will rob Corbyn of the LotO title, but again I can't see the MPs having anything but loyalty to their party even as it is taken over around them. By the time the deselections start it will be too late.

Thanks to FPTP Labour MPs that want a centre left alternative to the Tories have little choice but to remain with Labour. There is more chance that deluded members will come to their senses than there is that a new party will get anywhere. The hard left remains a rump and can be defeated.

It's a pretty sad state of affairs when the unions are the most moderate voice in the Labour Party.

I thought the Government was legislating to ban TUs from supporting Labour...

Mr. Pubgoer, closely followed by Qatar?

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

A band of 4 MPs, comprising Pete Wishart of the SNP, Kevin Brennan of Labour and Tories Sir Greg Knight and former Labour MP Ian Cawsey are budding to represent the UK in the Eurovision song contest

budding - you need a new phone

Interesting thought though - beats that Israeli transvestite.

Probably also does not help I am reading the paper on the train at the same time but yes would be an interesting prospect

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Corbyn has called for annual TV debates with the PM and other party leaders

Does he think that people will come to love him more when they really find out what he believes in?

Dave should immediately call his bluff, say it's a fantastic idea and he's looking forward to the first debate!

Indeed though I expect Cameron will say we already have PMQs

HYUFD said:

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

A band of 4 MPs, comprising Pete Wishart of the SNP, Kevin Brennan of Labour and Tories Sir Greg Knight and former Labour MP Ian Cawsey are budding to represent the UK in the Eurovision song contest

budding - you need a new phone

Interesting thought though - beats that Israeli transvestite.

Probably also does not help I am reading the paper on the train at the same time but yes would be an interesting prospect

Hope you're not in the no cellphone car

Mr. HYUFD, indeed, but short-term advantage should not dictate making a long-term change to the way we do politics.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

HYUFD said:

A band of 4 MPs, comprising Pete Wishart of the SNP, Kevin Brennan of Labour and Tories Sir Greg Knight and former Labour MP Ian Cawsey are budding to represent the UK in the Eurovision song contest

They can't do any worse than some of our most recent entries.
Russia are the early favorites in the betting.

Yes will probably be a Scandinavian or Eastern European nation again

As we've been saying for ages - this isn't even playing on Easy.

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Corbyn has called for annual TV debates with the PM and other party leaders

Does he think that people will come to love him more when they really find out what he believes in?

Dave should immediately call his bluff, say it's a fantastic idea and he's looking forward to the first debate!

He knows Cameron will say no, fir understandable reasons, PMQs etc, so they won't happen but he can say Cameron is running scared of him and the people. Political gameplaying at its most obvious.

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Corbyn has called for annual TV debates with the PM and other party leaders

Does he think that people will come to love him more when they really find out what he believes in?

Dave should immediately call his bluff, say it's a fantastic idea and he's looking forward to the first debate!

He knows Cameron will say no, fir understandable reasons, PMQs etc, so they won't happen but he can say Cameron is running scared of him and the people. Political gameplaying at its most obvious.

Agree completely, which is why Dave should call him on it. If it does happen then the PM gets a much larger audience than PMQs to repeat the line about terrorist sympathisers and support for Mao, Venezuela, Cuba etc. Dave would have a field day, it would be starting the election campaign 4 years early.

I'm not sure it would get that much of an audience to be honest.

New Hampshire is a secular minded state with a flinty streak of independence , they went for Pat Buchannon and so it's quite possible they will go for Trump ...but it seems to me that when Trump fails badly in Iowa it will be the beginning of the end for the Trump phenomena

In some ways Trumpism is like a Ponzi Scheme that relies heavily on consumer confidence , but when that confidence is undermined it collapses like a house of cards

The only polls that have real predictive value are those about 3-4 days before the actual vote
Rubio has purposely played it low key to avoid being the front runner and fall guy but come January his campaign is going to ratchet things up and slowly build momentum with a string of endorsements , including two previous NH primary winners , Mccain and Romney ...Rubio could very well win in NH but even if he doesn't a good second place is a victory of sorts that will keep him in the race ....only Trump can beat Rubio in NH !

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Corbyn has called for annual TV debates with the PM and other party leaders

Does he think that people will come to love him more when they really find out what he believes in?

Dave should immediately call his bluff, say it's a fantastic idea and he's looking forward to the first debate!

He knows Cameron will say no, fir understandable reasons, PMQs etc, so they won't happen but he can say Cameron is running scared of him and the people. Political gameplaying at its most obvious.

Agree completely, which is why Dave should call him on it. If it does happen then the PM gets a much larger audience than PMQs to repeat the line about terrorist sympathisers and support for Mao, Venezuela, Cuba etc. Dave would have a field day, it would be starting the election campaign 4 years early.

And how does he get out of it when Labour come to their senses? Never make long term changes for short term gain.

Besides, it's a daft idea on its own merits. There are far more effective ways of holding leaders to account than debates, which only really have value in an election time when the public are being asked to assess the potential PMs against each other.

SquareRoot said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Corbyn has called for annual TV debates with the PM and other party leaders

Does he think that people will come to love him more when they really find out what he believes in?

Dave should immediately call his bluff, say it's a fantastic idea and he's looking forward to the first debate!

He knows Cameron will say no, fir understandable reasons, PMQs etc, so they won't happen but he can say Cameron is running scared of him and the people. Political gameplaying at its most obvious.

Agree completely, which is why Dave should call him on it. If it does happen then the PM gets a much larger audience than PMQs to repeat the line about terrorist sympathisers and support for Mao, Venezuela, Cuba etc. Dave would have a field day, it would be starting the election campaign 4 years early.

All that ammo needs to be kept for the GE election campaign in the meantime its enough that Corbyn looks weak acts week and is seen to be a nutter

The Tories don't seem to be holding back though - witness "terrorist sympathisers" at the time of the Syria debate.

Cromwell said:

New Hampshire is a secular minded state with a flinty streak of independence , they went for Pat Buchannon and so it's quite possible they will go for Trump ...but it seems to me that when Trump fails badly in Iowa it will be the beginning of the end for the Trump phenomena

In some ways Trumpism is like a Ponzi Scheme that relies heavily on consumer confidence , but when that confidence is undermined it collapses like a house of cards

The only polls that have real predictive value are those about 3-4 days before the actual vote
Rubio has purposely played it low key to avoid being the front runner and fall guy but come January his campaign is going to ratchet things up and slowly build momentum with a string of endorsements , including two previous NH primary winners , Mccain and Romney ...Rubio could very well win in NH but even if he doesn't a good second place is a victory of sorts that will keep him in the race ....only Trump can beat Rubio in NH !

Rubio low key? He's on TV almost very day. Not on the Trumpian scale though.

Cromwell said:

THIS is the best political analysis that I have read on the so called Trump phenomena .........

NED MADDEN

Anyone who thinks Trump will win the GOP nomination ... let alone the general election ... hasn't been paying attention to the Blaring Trumpet himself, who's been telling us in every way possible (except for actually saying it straight out) that while he loves RUNNING for President he has zero interest in actually BEING President ... an all-consuming but relatively low-paying, thankless job requiring a lot of hard work, little reward and much compromise, none of which appeals to Trump.

Most importantly for Trump, losing even a single primary or caucus would be a catastrophic personal failure that cannot be hidden or denied. The headlines will read "Trump Loses," an intolerable situation for a self--described Winner Who NEVER Loses.

If Trump is still in the race on Feb. 1 he will definitely lose in Iowa, and for a week until New Hampshire he'll have to deal with the humiliating truth that on his VERY FIRST EVER U.S. electoral ballot, he LOST. Ouch, ouch and super ouch.

Aside from crashing his own self-inflated image of himself as a Winner above all else (which ignores his many bankrupticies and other business failures), a run for the nomination will require Trump to spend money he simply does not have.

Obama's 2012 reelection campaign cost $1.1 billion. Forbes and Blumberg put Trump's wealth at $4 billion, of which only $330 million is in cash and securities. He'd blow through that amount fairly quickly and then need to begin selling off real estate holdings at fire sale prices to get the money to pay bills on the cash-hungry campaign trail. SuperPACs and other sources of revenue won't much diminish Trump's own YOOOJ! spending requirements.

And despite it all Trump knows that in the end he'd suffer a Goldwater-level defeat by Hillary in the general election.

No, Trump knows how to play the odds and he's already gotten everything he wanted in the first place fro the 2016 campaign ... global personal notoriety and a mega-buffing of the Trump brand. He's not going to throw all that away simply to spend his own money getting made to look the fool when the actual voting starts.

Prediction: the Trumpet will Jump It before Feb. 1. If he doesn't quit the race before the first votes are cast, then he's even crazier than he's made himself out to be.

To all you Trumpistas who find this analysis not to your liking, relax. I actually want Trump to stay in. He's totally destroying the GOP for at least a generation to come, and his self-destruction is going to be even more heart warming to observe.

Given Cruz may be the one who pips Trump in New Hampshire that is little help to Rubio David Frum had an article last week which made clear Trump now represents the base against the establishment who are running out of time to stop him

What, if anything, have those saying they'll vote for Donald Trump had to do so far? Have they had to pay as much as £3? Because if not, they're just another bunch of maybes and given this bunch of maybes seem to have been pretty uncommitted in the past, why should we think they'll be any more committed this time around?

The comparison is less with Jeremy Corbyn and more with UKIP, it seems to me.

Wanderer said:

SquareRoot said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Corbyn has called for annual TV debates with the PM and other party leaders

Does he think that people will come to love him more when they really find out what he believes in?

Dave should immediately call his bluff, say it's a fantastic idea and he's looking forward to the first debate!

He knows Cameron will say no, fir understandable reasons, PMQs etc, so they won't happen but he can say Cameron is running scared of him and the people. Political gameplaying at its most obvious.

Agree completely, which is why Dave should call him on it. If it does happen then the PM gets a much larger audience than PMQs to repeat the line about terrorist sympathisers and support for Mao, Venezuela, Cuba etc. Dave would have a field day, it would be starting the election campaign 4 years early.

All that ammo needs to be kept for the GE election campaign in the meantime its enough that Corbyn looks weak acts week and is seen to be a nutter

The Tories don't seem to be holding back though - witness "terrorist sympathisers" at the time of the Syria debate.

That was to frame how the public view Corbyn, and it's worked.

Ted Cruz's victory in Iowa will be good news for Trump, will give him the impression of having the big 'mo' and will probably sink Rubio.

Re Trump:

I very much doubt his net worth is anywhere near $4bn. He's the pointy bit on top of a mountain of leverage. If asset prices were to fall, or interest rates were to rise, he might find that his net worth diminished very rapidly.

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

oxfordsimon said:

Charles said:

FPT

oxfordsimon said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Corbyn, or the beginning of the end for the Labour Party?

Daily Mail: Get rid of Corbyn or we'll quit! Dozens of moderate Labour MPs 'ready to leave Parliament'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3376857/Get-rid-Corbyn-ll-quit-Dozens-moderate-Labour-MPs-ready-leave-Parliament.html

Quitting in 2020 achieves nothing. They need to act now. 50 resignations now - 50 by-elections with them standing as Independent Labour. Now that would be a challenge.

This is probably the end of the beginning for Corbyn. He can have his purge next week and then we enter the next phase.

An interesting trade off, given that Corbyn controls the timing of the by-elections: do you have a mass by-election day with 50 candidates or not?

I suspect the craftier thing to do is to dribble them out, perhaps starting with 3-4 where you know you can get an easy win for the "official" Labour party [i.e. where the local infrastructure remains loyal] to snuff out any momentum

But it's not going to happen. cf James Purnell.

If they resign the whip first and then resign their seats, Corbyn loses control of the by-election as it would be an independent MP who has quit...

There are ways to mess with him big style - if they have got the balls

Yes, but Labour MPs have demonstrated a serious inability to do that in recent years, remember when Purnell resigned on his own?

If they really have the balls then half plus one defections will rob Corbyn of the LotO title, but again I can't see the MPs having anything but loyalty to their party even as it is taken over around them. By the time the deselections start it will be too late.

Thanks to FPTP Labour MPs that want a centre left alternative to the Tories have little choice but to remain with Labour. There is more chance that deluded members will come to their senses than there is that a new party will get anywhere. The hard left remains a rump and can be defeated.

The hard left are also in control of most major unions.

https://twitter.com/will_sherlock/status/681766228512346112

...just the biggest loser...

Bairstow and Ali now going at it with the bat. Lead of 327 is only a dozen from the highest score ever chased on this ground, and more than SA have scored in over a year. Declaration coming around lunch time?