MaxPB said:

Also, the government are being hoist by another of their own petards, EU contributions rose YoY by over £1bn for November and the current TTM is the highest we've ever had. The cost of success has never been this bad! Honestly it is time for Dave to just tell them to f*** off and stop paying so much. If he lost on all of his negotiation points but was able to get our full rebate back, I think he could deliver a "remain" vote. The EU is punishing this country for its economic success and rewarding countries like France and Greece for their failures. It is ridiculous.

It's called socialism, at an international scale.

SandyRentool said:

Plato_Says said:

Something for so many PBers

Doug
It seems only right that I should point out this error. https://t.co/9ApBwlyyqk

Pity it's a fake. Or am I being too pendantic? Edit: Oh I see it claims not to be a fake. Funny it is spelt right on the lid.

That happens. On our bookcase we have a copy of a Dan Simmon's 'Hyperion' book where the title on the cover is missing the 'p' of Hyperion, but it is present on the spine.

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

Plato_Says said:

Something for so many PBers

Doug
It seems only right that I should point out this error. https://t.co/9ApBwlyyqk

Pity it's a fake. Or am I being too pendantic? Edit: Oh I see it claims not to be a fake. Funny it is spelt right on the lid.

That happens. On our bookcase we have a copy of a Dan Simmon's 'Hyperion' book where the title on the cover is missing the 'p' of Hyperion, but it is present on the spine.

That book has the distinction of the silliest ending of any supposedly serious book I've ever read.

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

Plato_Says said:

Something for so many PBers

Doug
It seems only right that I should point out this error. https://t.co/9ApBwlyyqk

Pity it's a fake. Or am I being too pendantic? Edit: Oh I see it claims not to be a fake. Funny it is spelt right on the lid.

That happens. On our bookcase we have a copy of a Dan Simmon's 'Hyperion' book where the title on the cover is missing the 'p' of Hyperion, but it is present on the spine.

That book has the distinction of the silliest ending of any supposedly serious book I've ever read.

I've not actually read it: Mrs J is much more of a sci-fi buff than I am. My reading list is large enough as it is without reading her massive pile of sci-fi books as well ...

Plato_Says said:

Great obit for programmer

Programmers obituary. https://t.co/BKOOenx8ik

That's lovely, though sad.

When our little 'un was born, I sent a message to friends about a new process being spawned, with mother and child processing running well, and input/output ports on child process working well. Father process was about to sleep(10).

I think I might have got the idea somewhere off here a few years ago.

AlastairMeeks said:

A bleak assessment of Russia's future:

http://ceip.org/1UAunYI

That is bleak. And it partly explains Russia's adventures in Syria. I expect more of the same as Putin's reign runs into further troubles.

Brent Crude now cheaper than WTI for the first time since 2010:

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Tom said:

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

Riverside (Cardiff) -0.8%

And this is what I mean about it being misleading to lump all local elections together and present changes in vote as all on the same level without indicating the date of the previous election.

The last Cardiff local election was in May 2012, when nationally Labour were 8% higher than in May 2015. Therefore, a 1% drop from 2012 is 7% above Labour's equivalent performance at this year's GE.

The comparisons are clearly a bit dodgy for the reasons you point out. However comparing them to May 2015 isn't sensible either as (as has been pointed out) you would expect Labour to be higher. Cardiff is the sort of place where Labour is typically doing well (big city, lots of students) so it is conceivable there has been a bounce there. The Aylesford result was the killer for me. Safe Lab ward in Kent, huge plunge in vote, Makes the earlier points re: Dartford, Gravesham, Medway Towns which were all labour under Blair and Corbyn has not a hope in hell of winning.

Oh, without doubt Labour's performance in council byelections has been by no means great.

However, my point was mainly in response to people who claim that any drop in a council by-election shows that "Labour have gone further backwards since the election". A drop of less than 8% in any by-election compared to 2012 is actually an improvement on their position in May 2015 (though not enough to be on course for a 2020 election win, true).

YBarddCwsc said:

A calculation that is worth doing is the following.

Although there has not been a referendum on an Exit before, there have been referendums in a number of countries (Denmark, Ireland, Greece, etc) on Treaty ratifications, or increased European integration or acceptance of EU bailout terms, and so on.

Of course, Irish voters famously rejected the Treaties of Nice and Lisbon first time.

In general, my impression is that the polls have always underestimated the hostility to the EU. For example, the opinion polls on the Irish 2008 referendum grossly overstated the 'in favour of acceptance' side (according to wiki)

It would be interesting to see that quantified. If there is a systematic effect, I would expect to see it replicated in UK polls for the Brexit.

(I would guess the origin of the effect is in how the Don't Knows actually break).

While I wish that were true, it is equally possible that DKs simply broke for the status quo.

JosiasJessop said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A bleak assessment of Russia's future:

http://ceip.org/1UAunYI

That is bleak. And it partly explains Russia's adventures in Syria. I expect more of the same as Putin's reign runs into further troubles.

Many regard Putin as the most astute statesman at large. He's certainly recovered Russia's prestige after Yeltin's drunken shambles. I fear that you're overly influenced by your Russophobic Ottoman bride.

MonikerDiCanio said:

JosiasJessop said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A bleak assessment of Russia's future:

http://ceip.org/1UAunYI

That is bleak. And it partly explains Russia's adventures in Syria. I expect more of the same as Putin's reign runs into further troubles.

Many regard Putin as the most astute statesman at large. He's certainly recovered Russia's prestige after Yeltin's drunken shambles. I fear that you're overly influenced by your Russophobic Ottoman bride.

My wife is not Ottoman, and nor is she Russophobic. Quite the opposite, in fact.

And neither am I. You might have noticed I was complimenting Russia earlier today.

I fear your own bigoted views are influencing your posts. "Oh, someone's Turkish. They must have certain views..."

Plato_Says said:

Great obit for programmer

Programmers obituary. https://t.co/BKOOenx8ik

Apparently the man who invented predictive text has died. His funfair, is scheduled for Thursday.

saddened said:

Plato_Says said:

Great obit for programmer

Programmers obituary. https://t.co/BKOOenx8ik

Apparently the man who invented predictive text has died. His funfair, is scheduled for Thursday.

rcs1000 said:

Has anyone seen this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/uk/london/11176363/Which-foreign-passports-are-most-common-in-London.html

I'm not sure I believe it; are there really more Indian nationals in London than Spanish, Italian, Romanians and Bulgarians put together?

For the record, I can't add up. Remove Italian from that list

JosiasJessop said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JosiasJessop said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A bleak assessment of Russia's future:

http://ceip.org/1UAunYI

That is bleak. And it partly explains Russia's adventures in Syria. I expect more of the same as Putin's reign runs into further troubles.

Many regard Putin as the most astute statesman at large. He's certainly recovered Russia's prestige after Yeltin's drunken shambles. I fear that you're overly influenced by your Russophobic Ottoman bride.

My wife is not Ottoman, and nor is she Russophobic. Quite the opposite, in fact.

And neither am I. You might have noticed I was complimenting Russia earlier today.

I fear your own bigoted views are influencing your posts. "Oh, someone's Turkish. They must have certain views..."

Appending my own post, it should be noted that until Syria got hot, Russia and Turkey were on very good terms. As an example, they had just signed an agreement to route a pipeline through Turkey.

It was a pipeline that had been due to go through Ukraine. It'll be interesting to see which country Russia approaches next to host the pipeline. Whichever country it is (and there are limited options) may want to think carefully about the precedents ...

Plato_Says said:

This is rather fun.

Causes of death in Shakespeare plays: https://t.co/zQYBVPhQis https://t.co/8D9gMMNuuH

I wonder how it compares to the *real* causes of death at the time the plays were set (leaving aside illness/disease and the couple of people who would have died of old age)

JosiasJessop said:

Plato_Says said:

This is rather fun.

Causes of death in Shakespeare plays: https://t.co/zQYBVPhQis https://t.co/8D9gMMNuuH

I wonder how it compares to the *real* causes of death at the time the plays were set (leaving aside illness/disease and the couple of people who would have died of old age)

It probably compared favourably with Cabot Cove and Midsommer.

rcs1000 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JosiasJessop said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A bleak assessment of Russia's future:

http://ceip.org/1UAunYI

That is bleak. And it partly explains Russia's adventures in Syria. I expect more of the same as Putin's reign runs into further troubles.

Many regard Putin as the most astute statesman at large. He's certainly recovered Russia's prestige after Yeltin's drunken shambles. I fear that you're overly influenced by your Russophobic Ottoman bride.

Putin's star rose with the oil price. It will fall with it.

It's laughable to pretend that Russia has 'prestige'.

I suspect the EU Ref turnout will be very low. Most people don't care much, will be confused by the pros and cons, and put off by lack lustre campaigns on both sides.

If turnout is low then GOTV will be critically important. Historical canvass returns won't be much use (except for UKIP definites). I assume Labour, SNP and LDs activists will concentrate on the REMAIN side, UKIP on the LEAVE side.

The Tories are particularly good at GOTV but which side will local Tory activists and street captains support or will they be split? I assume they will back Cameron but maybe reluctantly.

I think how the Tory GOTV effort works will be critical in determining the result. So what Dave recommends is not only important in convincing 10-15% of the electorate but also in focussing the Tory GOTV.

JackW said:

Good evening PBers and forever AV thread hopefuls at home and abroad.

I shall be now be signing off from PB for a few months and as the festive season begins to encroach may I wish one and all a peaceful and joyous Christmas and a most prosperous and happy new year.

May God bless you all ....

Merry Christmas, and may the New Year bring wealth, health and happiness.

Merry christmas to @JackW. Recuperating the ARSE for the main event next year?

SeanT said:

Just heard that ICE TWINS has gone back into the Sunday Times top ten (at number 9, but still)

That's basically a year after it came out, and a year where it already made number 1.

Happy Chrimbo! I wrote a book that just keeps selling. A standard. A classic. An all time favourite. A book for the ages. A book for the centuries. Basically Ulysses but scarier*

*some of the above is tongue-in-cheek.

Whose cheek?

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

Just heard that ICE TWINS has gone back into the Sunday Times top ten (at number 9, but still)

That's basically a year after it came out, and a year where it already made number 1.

Happy Chrimbo! I wrote a book that just keeps selling. A standard. A classic. An all time favourite. A book for the ages. A book for the centuries. Basically Ulysses but scarier*

*some of the above is tongue-in-cheek.

Whose cheek?

God, we'd better hope SeanT never becomes genuinely successful. Think how unbearable he'd be then.

AndyJS said:

Fantastic news — new wind farm off Suffolk coast to go ahead:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/30/galloper-windfarm-suffolk-new-backers

Indeed some good news...

JackW said:

Good evening PBers and forever AV thread hopefuls at home and abroad.

I shall be now be signing off from PB for a few months and as the festive season begins to encroach may I wish one and all a peaceful and joyous Christmas and a most prosperous and happy new year.

May God bless you all ....

I hope that your ARSE prospers in the winter sun and returns for the Euro-ref as pert as ever!