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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest ICM EURef tracker edges to REMAIN in line with other recent polling

In what’s likely to be the last EURef poll of 2015 ICM online reports an increase in the REMAIN lead from 1% a week ago to 7% now. This is the same direction that we’ve seen in all EURef polls over past week.

Read the full story here

Indigo

OT:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said borrowing was £14.2Billion in November 2015, £1.3Billion higher than a year ago while the national debt is now more than £1.5Trillion.

I think George might need to spend less time worrying about who the next leader is going to be and a bit more time thinking about the economy, or it won't be him. http://goo.gl/XZDzrg

TGOHF

Indigo said:

OT:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said borrowing was £14.2Billion in November 2015, £1.3Billion higher than a year ago while the national debt is now more than £1.5Trillion.

I think George might need to spend less time worrying about who the next leader is going to be and a bit more time thinking about the economy, or it won't be him. http://goo.gl/XZDzrg

From the ONS website:

"Due to the volatility of the monthly data, the cumulative financial year-to-date borrowing figuresprovide a better indication of the progress of the public finances than the individual months."

"Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks decreased by £6.6 billion to £66.9
billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2015 to November 2015) compared with the
same period in 2014"

but you may know better.

RobD

Third, like Labour in Scotland!

tlg86

Can I be the first to say that Remain does better during the holidays?.....

tlg86

FPT

Kinga said:

Totally OT so apologies for that but have just heard a former Jihadi/prisoner of ISIS claiming that IS has two parents: The Iraq Invasion by Bush/Blair and the failure of the west to intercede against Assad as he put down the Syrian revolution.

So basically "we hate you because you invaded a muslim state and we hate you because you didn't invade a muslim state".

No, they're saying we invaded the wrong Muslim state and have been seen to be siding with the wrong kind of Muslims.

Sandpit

FPT

JosiasJessop said:

Sandpit said:

CAIB report is very long and dry, and I say that as someone who reads aviation accident reports for fun! Start with the 248 page "Executive Summary" Part I and go from there!

tl:dr - Every prior shuttle mission had tiles fall off and damage was frequent. It was only a matter of time until fatal damage to the tiles occurred.

Therac-25 - hell yes. Luckily I don't work with software where bugs kill people, but it's a very real-world example of the need for a level of QA commensurate with the use of the product. If you're writing software for use in critical systems like transport or medicine, you need both simple code and a LOT of testing.

Thanks. Even though I've not read the report, I've read around about the Colombia tragedy, and isn't it a case (like the Challenger disaster) they thought: "Oh, we've had damage before and got away with it. That means its fine and we can reduce our safety margins?"

Instead, they should have been saying: "Holy cr@p. We've got recurring problems, and we've been lucky. Let's fix it."

Yes, exactly.

With Challenger they should have aborted given the unknown effect of the sub-zero temperatures on a whole load of systems, especially but not solely the O-rings on the SRBs that caused the accident. There was too much pressure applied given previous aborts to the mission, especially with the Teacher in Space program making the mission more high profile than usual.

With Columbia they had 20 years of data that showed tiles missing and various damage caused to the Orbiters by foam debris. The whole design was a ticking time bomb but again the risk was thought to be acceptable - until the day of the inevitable accident.

"In an age when space flight has come to seem almost routine, it is easy to overlook the dangers of travel by rocket, and the difficulties of navigating the fierce outer atmosphere of the Earth."

George W Bush, addressing the nation on the day of the Columbia tragedy.

Even to those involved, it had become routine, when in reality nothing could be further from the truth. This IS rocket science after all.

Plato_Says

Sounds like not doing your job to me. Jezza on his Portuguese trip.

Dan Hodges
Corbyn: "I’m quite concerned that if I spend time in the office someone will always find something for you to do".

Plato_Says

If that actually happens - it'd be too hilarious even for aisle rolling

RobD said:

Third, like Labour in Scotland!

Scott_P

Sandpit said:

The whole design was a ticking time bomb but again the risk was thought to be acceptable - until the day of the inevitable accident.

On the role of PowerPoint in the fateful decision...

http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0001yB

saddened

Indigo said:

OT:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said borrowing was £14.2Billion in November 2015, £1.3Billion higher than a year ago while the national debt is now more than £1.5Trillion.

I think George might need to spend less time worrying about who the next leader is going to be and a bit more time thinking about the economy, or it won't be him. http://goo.gl/XZDzrg

It's being so cheerful, wot keeps you going.

Luckyguy1983

tlg86 said:

FPT

Kinga said:

Totally OT so apologies for that but have just heard a former Jihadi/prisoner of ISIS claiming that IS has two parents: The Iraq Invasion by Bush/Blair and the failure of the west to intercede against Assad as he put down the Syrian revolution.

So basically "we hate you because you invaded a muslim state and we hate you because you didn't invade a muslim state".

No, they're saying we invaded the wrong Muslim state and have been seen to be siding with the wrong kind of Muslims.

Maybe we shouldn't be taking the word of a Jihadi as gospel on the matter.

Pulpstar

Challenger was a disaster, but didn't show up the entire flawed design in the same way the Colombia disaster did (Wings and bolting your spacecraft to the SIDE of the rocket)

That was the beginning of the end of the shuttle.

Plato_Says

Keiran Pedley
What does Labour do when polls show immigration / terrorism no. 1 issue? Produce an email poll of members saying they are wrong? Daft.

ThreeQuidder

Scott_P said:

Sandpit said:

The whole design was a ticking time bomb but again the risk was thought to be acceptable - until the day of the inevitable accident.

On the role of PowerPoint in the fateful decision...

http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0001yB

Powerpoint is evil. All you need to know about it is that if you ask for A4 you get 254mm x 190mm.

RobD

Scott_P said:

Sandpit said:

The whole design was a ticking time bomb but again the risk was thought to be acceptable - until the day of the inevitable accident.

On the role of PowerPoint in the fateful decision...

http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0001yB

Surely that's only half of the story. There tends to be a person speaking as well as the slides

JosiasJessop

Scott_P said:

Sandpit said:

The whole design was a ticking time bomb but again the risk was thought to be acceptable - until the day of the inevitable accident.

On the role of PowerPoint in the fateful decision...

http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0001yB

Thanks for that. Although to be fair, the poor men and women on the Colombia were doomed the moment the debris hit the wing. There was not way they could dock with the ISS, even if they'd been able to get to its orbit (which AIUI they could not). There was no way Atlantis could have been prepared and launched for a rescue before they ran out of resources, whatever some say (1).

They would have required everything to go their way. NASA are good, but not that good.

(1) http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/02/the-audacious-rescue-plan-that-might-have-saved-space-shuttle-columbia/

Indigo

saddened said:

Indigo said:

OT:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said borrowing was £14.2Billion in November 2015, £1.3Billion higher than a year ago while the national debt is now more than £1.5Trillion.

I think George might need to spend less time worrying about who the next leader is going to be and a bit more time thinking about the economy, or it won't be him. http://goo.gl/XZDzrg

It's being so cheerful, wot keeps you going.

George not being the next Tory leader makes me cheerful, he will repel floating voters in droves.

Sandpit

LOL at PowerPoint!

One good thing to come out of the Columbia accident - video of the launches. Ultra slo-mo, HD video.

45 minutes of rocket-p0rn. Enjoy!
https://youtube.com/vFwqZ4qAUkE

Razedabode

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

But hey, they won Oldham so...

Plato_Says

All this PowerPoint talk has reminded me of my own - I used to do rather cool ppt shows, then decided that actually I'd not use them at all, evah.

It was strangely controversial in blue-chip land. I could almost feel the relief wash over the audience when I said I didn't have a single slide for them to endure. I had to rely on being interesting and knowing my subject like the back of my hand. My worst experience was sitting in a BT site in Oswestry - on a BH weekend Friday afternoon when the host stood up and clicked... 1/176 in the corner. Of network diagrams.

AndyJS

What was your subject, if you don't mind me asking?

Plato_Says said:

All this PowerPoint talk has reminded me of my own - I used to do rather cool ppt shows, then decided that actually I'd not use them at all, evah.

It was strangely controversial in blue-chip land. I could almost feel the relief wash over the audience when I said I didn't have a single slide for them to endure. I had to rely on being interesting and knowing my subject like the back of my hand. My worst experience was sitting in a BT site in Oswestry - on a BH weekend Friday afternoon when the host stood up and clicked... 1/176 in the corner. Of network diagrams.

[Deleted User]

How depressing. We will likely remain as the British Isles administrative district of the people's socialist paradise of Eutopia.

Do we have any breakdown on the polling? Who are traitorous MFCSes that want to betray us to the Borg Collective?

Plato_Says

Great photo

Gareth Siddorn
In which Polly Toynbee warns of the dangers of being a splitter https://t.co/Un3nLhMqvo https://t.co/iZCu1bFVCl

Pulpstar

Patrick said:

How depressing. We will likely remain as the British Isles administrative district of the people's socialist paradise of Eutopia.

Do we have any breakdown on the polling? Who are traitorous MFCSes that want to betray us to the Borg Collective?

There is a high degree of correlation of the left- right and pro - anti European spectrum methinks.

Sandpit

Plato_Says said:

My worst experience was sitting in a BT site in Oswestry - on a BH weekend Friday afternoon when the host stood up and clicked... 1/176 in the corner. Of network diagrams.

21CN project? When BT finally decided that fibre was better than copper and they moved their entire operation to be IP-based. I like network diagrams but I'm not sure I could sit through 176 slides of them on a Friday afternoon before a long weekend!

Sean_F

Razedabode said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

But hey, they won Oldham so...

That seems to provide more evidence that Labour under Corbyn is winning extra support in places where it is already strong, while going backwards elsewhere.

AndyJS

Why isn't Lord Ashcroft's survey of 20,000 people appearing in the list of polls?

Sandpit

Sean_F said:

Razedabode said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

But hey, they won Oldham so...

That seems to provide more evidence that Labour under Corbyn is winning extra support in places where it is already strong, while going backwards elsewhere.

Yes, but the election is won in places like Nuneaton and Corby (the only town to have had 4 MPs in the past 6 years?) not in Liverpool and Oldham.

Corbyn is poison outside his comfort zone of safe seats. The attacks on him haven't started yet as far as the general public are concerned.

Plato_Says

All sorts - efficiency using hotdesking, understanding FoI, how to engage volunteers to expand your brand, how broadband works, policing and the media.

I used the old Tell Them What You're Going To Tell Them, Tell Them, Tell Them What You Told Them structure. Once you've got the structure for the story - the rest is much easier than it sounds. I gave short hand-outs at the end as a reminder if that fitted the subject, but not too often. The Q&As were much more useful.

AndyJS said:

What was your subject, if you don't mind me asking?

Plato_Says said:

All this PowerPoint talk has reminded me of my own - I used to do rather cool ppt shows, then decided that actually I'd not use them at all, evah.

It was strangely controversial in blue-chip land. I could almost feel the relief wash over the audience when I said I didn't have a single slide for them to endure. I had to rely on being interesting and knowing my subject like the back of my hand. My worst experience was sitting in a BT site in Oswestry - on a BH weekend Friday afternoon when the host stood up and clicked... 1/176 in the corner. Of network diagrams.

MattW

Plato_Says said:

All this PowerPoint talk has reminded me of my own - I used to do rather cool ppt shows, then decided that actually I'd not use them at all, evah.

It was strangely controversial in blue-chip land. I could almost feel the relief wash over the audience when I said I didn't have a single slide for them to endure. I had to rely on being interesting and knowing my subject like the back of my hand. My worst experience was sitting in a BT site in Oswestry - on a BH weekend Friday afternoon when the host stood up and clicked... 1/176 in the corner. Of network diagrams.

1/176 then stopping at slide 4 would be stylish.

Sandpit

MattW said:

Plato_Says said:

All this PowerPoint talk has reminded me of my own - I used to do rather cool ppt shows, then decided that actually I'd not use them at all, evah.

It was strangely controversial in blue-chip land. I could almost feel the relief wash over the audience when I said I didn't have a single slide for them to endure. I had to rely on being interesting and knowing my subject like the back of my hand. My worst experience was sitting in a BT site in Oswestry - on a BH weekend Friday afternoon when the host stood up and clicked... 1/176 in the corner. Of network diagrams.

1/176 then stopping at slide 4 would be stylish.

LOL. Might have to remember that one.

TheScreamingEagles

AndyJS said:

Why isn't Lord Ashcroft's survey of 20,000 people appearing in the list of polls?

Methodology was bobbins.

Plato_Says

21CN indeed. When spaghetti became lasagne - the worst food analogy I've ever heard.

I was the PR to the CTO of BT Exact and endured more network diagrams than is healthy. I don't mind them, but 176 on a Friday afternoon with a 5hr drive home was beyond even me. Oh, and he liked clip art...

Sandpit said:

Plato_Says said:

snip

21CN project? When BT finally decided that fibre was better than copper and they moved their entire operation to be IP-based. I like network diagrams but I'm not sure I could sit through 176 slides of them on a Friday afternoon before a long weekend!

isam

Plato_Says said:

Keiran Pedley
What does Labour do when polls show immigration / terrorism no. 1 issue? Produce an email poll of members saying they are wrong? Daft.

People like to read whatever they like into polls to promote their own prejudices

For instance, on this site, two recent headers have used the IPSOS MORI polling; one to say that Immigration being the most potent issue isn't evidence that immigration is a big issue and another to say that the EU being least potent is evidence that it is not an issue

Theuniondivvie

Patrick said:

How depressing. We will likely remain as the British Isles administrative district of the people's socialist paradise of Eutopia.

A Eurosocialist boot stamping on a British Nationalist face forever.

To coin a phrase.

Danny565

Razedabode said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

But hey, they won Oldham so...

Talking about changes in share of vote are pretty useless if they don't indicate the date of the last election.

A drop in Labour's vote from any council election held in May 2015 (on a day when they were already 7% behind nationally) is very worrying indeed. But a drop back from a council election held in May 2012 (their midterm peak where they were well ahead in national polls) is to be expected.

TheScreamingEagles

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Why isn't Lord Ashcroft's survey of 20,000 people appearing in the list of polls?

Methodology was bobbins.

I still think it should be put up with the rest, though.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

I suppose it will depend in practice on the reaction he gets from his party, and the Conservative-leaning press.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Why isn't Lord Ashcroft's survey of 20,000 people appearing in the list of polls?

Methodology was bobbins.

I still think it should be put up with the rest, though.

I sympathise with that. As do I with Mike's decision not to include it.

Sean_F

Sandpit said:

Sean_F said:

Razedabode said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

But hey, they won Oldham so...

That seems to provide more evidence that Labour under Corbyn is winning extra support in places where it is already strong, while going backwards elsewhere.

Yes, but the election is won in places like Nuneaton and Corby (the only town to have had 4 MPs in the past 6 years?) not in Liverpool and Oldham.

Corbyn is poison outside his comfort zone of safe seats. The attacks on him haven't started yet as far as the general public are concerned.

I couldn't see a Corbyn-led party ever winning a seat like Stevenage or Dartford.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

I suppose it will depend in practice on the reaction he gets from his party, and the Conservative-leaning press.

Yup. I'm expecting a few resignations, I think Dave's going to insist on cabinet/ministerial collective responsibility during the referendum.

Danny565

Sean_F said:

Sandpit said:

Sean_F said:

Razedabode said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

But hey, they won Oldham so...

That seems to provide more evidence that Labour under Corbyn is winning extra support in places where it is already strong, while going backwards elsewhere.

Yes, but the election is won in places like Nuneaton and Corby (the only town to have had 4 MPs in the past 6 years?) not in Liverpool and Oldham.

Corbyn is poison outside his comfort zone of safe seats. The attacks on him haven't started yet as far as the general public are concerned.

I couldn't see a Corbyn-led party ever winning a seat like Stevenage or Dartford.

It is indeed very hard to see - but equally it's hard to see Osborne appealing to non-hardcore-Tories more than Cameron would.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, my fellow British patriots.

We'll see whether the renegotiation is more Softsword or Lionheart.

Plato_Says

Do they co-star with Tokyo Sexwale?

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, my fellow British patriots.

We'll see whether the renegotiation is more Softsword or Lionheart.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, my fellow British patriots.

We'll see whether the renegotiation is more Softsword or Lionheart.

Mr Dancer I need your help.

I'm doing the Sunday thread and I'm stuck on an analogy.

During the Labour leadership election, was Andy Burnham Varro or Paullus?

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

I suppose it will depend in practice on the reaction he gets from his party, and the Conservative-leaning press.

Yup. I'm expecting a few resignations, I think Dave's going to insist on cabinet/ministerial collective responsibility during the referendum.

I think Priti should resign and campaign for Leave. For one thing, Dave didn't even give her a proper cabinet position so she could easily tell him to stick it, and for another thing, it would be her best chance of becoming party leader in the event of Leave winning.

Plato_Says

Priti is very pretty in a dominatrix way - but as Party leader? No way. Far too much of a hang'em and flog'em sort.

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

I suppose it will depend in practice on the reaction he gets from his party, and the Conservative-leaning press.

Yup. I'm expecting a few resignations, I think Dave's going to insist on cabinet/ministerial collective responsibility during the referendum.

I think Priti should resign and campaign for Leave. For one thing, Dave didn't even give her a proper cabinet position so she could easily tell him to stick it, and for another thing, it would be her best chance of becoming party leader in the event of Leave winning.

SquareRoot

How do we know the methodology of these polls is any better than the GE methodologies???.. The best you can say is that they tending to one direction polls, but then again so were the polls before the GE and they proved to be sub optimal for the main two parties.

IMHO treat with considerable caution.

Sandpit

Plato_Says said:

21CN indeed. When spaghetti became lasagne - the worst food analogy I've ever heard.

I was the PR to the CTO of BT Exact and endured more network diagrams than is healthy. I don't mind them, but 176 on a Friday afternoon with a 5hr drive home was beyond even me. Oh, and he liked clip art...

Sandpit said:

Plato_Says said:

snip

21CN project? When BT finally decided that fibre was better than copper and they moved their entire operation to be IP-based. I like network diagrams but I'm not sure I could sit through 176 slides of them on a Friday afternoon before a long weekend!

Sounds like a fun project to have been on the inside. I'm an IT generalist, from my experience the guys who do the big networks and switching are passionate to an quite unbelievable level about something that almost no-one else understands. They also make very big bucks!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, well, both men stuck to their guns (as it were). I'm not sure either man deserves comparison with Burnham. If you had to pick one, I'd say Varro, though Minucius Rufus, the Cunctator's magister equitum, may be a slightly better pick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Minucius_Rufus

As a flip-flopper, King John is actually a decent comparison, though he's rather more vindictive than I could imagine Burnham ever being.

Danny565

Plato_Says said:

Priti is very pretty in a dominatrix way - but as Party leader? No way. Far too much of a hang'em and flog'em sort.

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

I suppose it will depend in practice on the reaction he gets from his party, and the Conservative-leaning press.

Yup. I'm expecting a few resignations, I think Dave's going to insist on cabinet/ministerial collective responsibility during the referendum.

I think Priti should resign and campaign for Leave. For one thing, Dave didn't even give her a proper cabinet position so she could easily tell him to stick it, and for another thing, it would be her best chance of becoming party leader in the event of Leave winning.

She'd be quite good as the voice-actress for a Dalek, though

Plato_Says

I was very fortunate to have some really interesting jobs - in Innovation for BT Wholesale where we sought out new tech to rolling out bband, and a period donkey spotting crap ideas coming out of BT Labs as was. I was at Mercury before BT and that was just so buccaneering in comparison to the regulatory strait-jacket.

Sandpit said:

Plato_Says said:

21CN indeed. When spaghetti became lasagne - the worst food analogy I've ever heard.

I was the PR to the CTO of BT Exact and endured more network diagrams than is healthy. I don't mind them, but 176 on a Friday afternoon with a 5hr drive home was beyond even me. Oh, and he liked clip art...

Sandpit said:

Plato_Says said:

snip

21CN project? When BT finally decided that fibre was better than copper and they moved their entire operation to be IP-based. I like network diagrams but I'm not sure I could sit through 176 slides of them on a Friday afternoon before a long weekend!

Sounds like a fun project to have been on the inside. I'm an IT generalist, from my experience the guys who do the big networks and switching are passionate to an quite unbelievable level about something that almost no-one else understands. They also make very big bucks!

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, well, both men stuck to their guns (as it were). I'm not sure either man deserves comparison with Burnham. If you had to pick one, I'd say Varro, though Minucius Rufus, the Cunctator's magister equitum, may be a slightly better pick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Minucius_Rufus

As a flip-flopper, King John is actually a decent comparison, though he's rather more vindictive than I could imagine Burnham ever being.

Thanks. But that would ruin my Corbyn as Hannibal analogy/thread

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, you're aware Hannibal and Varro were on opposing sides in the Second Punic War?

SandyRentool

Plato_Says said:

Priti is very pretty in a dominatrix way - but as Party leader? No way. Far too much of a hang'em and flog'em sort.

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

I suppose it will depend in practice on the reaction he gets from his party, and the Conservative-leaning press.

Yup. I'm expecting a few resignations, I think Dave's going to insist on cabinet/ministerial collective responsibility during the referendum.

I think Priti should resign and campaign for Leave. For one thing, Dave didn't even give her a proper cabinet position so she could easily tell him to stick it, and for another thing, it would be her best chance of becoming party leader in the event of Leave winning.

Just want the Conservatives need in a post-EU world. All those ex-Kippers to bring back into the fold.

ThreeQuidder

Danny565 said:

Sean_F said:

Sandpit said:

Sean_F said:

Razedabode said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

But hey, they won Oldham so...

That seems to provide more evidence that Labour under Corbyn is winning extra support in places where it is already strong, while going backwards elsewhere.

Yes, but the election is won in places like Nuneaton and Corby (the only town to have had 4 MPs in the past 6 years?) not in Liverpool and Oldham.

Corbyn is poison outside his comfort zone of safe seats. The attacks on him haven't started yet as far as the general public are concerned.

I couldn't see a Corbyn-led party ever winning a seat like Stevenage or Dartford.

It is indeed very hard to see - but equally it's hard to see Osborne appealing to non-hardcore-Tories more than Cameron would.

That's true, but if he's facing Corbyn he doesn't need to - he just has to appear less unappealing than his opponent.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, my fellow British patriots.

We'll see whether the renegotiation is more Softsword or Lionheart.

Mr Dancer I need your help.

I'm doing the Sunday thread and I'm stuck on an analogy.

During the Labour leadership election, was Andy Burnham Varro or Paullus?

I think that would be unfair to both Varro and Paullus.

General Elphinstone, maybe?

AndyJS

"Widow faces deportation from UK despite being 92 and frail

Severely ill Myrtle Cothill told she must leave her daughter’s care and return to her birth country of South Africa, where she has no relatives"

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/22/widow-faces-deportation-from-uk-despite-being-92-and-frail

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, as ever, Mr. Eagles' unfathomable misunderstanding of Hannibal is leading him astray.

Alistair

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Why isn't Lord Ashcroft's survey of 20,000 people appearing in the list of polls?

Methodology was bobbins.

Also it didn't ask the referendum question.

Alistair

SquareRoot said:

How do we know the methodology of these polls is any better than the GE methodologies???.. The best you can say is that they tending to one direction polls, but then again so were the polls before the GE and they proved to be sub optimal for the main two parties.

IMHO treat with considerable caution.

Once you applied the simple process of assigning all don't knows to No the independence referendum polling was spot on.

Luckyguy1983

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

I suppose it will depend in practice on the reaction he gets from his party, and the Conservative-leaning press.

Yup. I'm expecting a few resignations, I think Dave's going to insist on cabinet/ministerial collective responsibility during the referendum.

Shame he doesn't take such a tough stance when he's negotiating on behalf of the country.

MikeSmithson

SquareRoot said:

How do we know the methodology of these polls is any better than the GE methodologies???.. The best you can say is that they tending to one direction polls, but then again so were the polls before the GE and they proved to be sub optimal for the main two parties.

IMHO treat with considerable caution.

The GE2015 polls were absolutely spot on with leader ratings, UKIP, LDs, & Scotland. What they got wrong were the LAB & CON shares.

Tom

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, well, both men stuck to their guns (as it were). I'm not sure either man deserves comparison with Burnham. If you had to pick one, I'd say Varro, though Minucius Rufus, the Cunctator's magister equitum, may be a slightly better pick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Minucius_Rufus

As a flip-flopper, King John is actually a decent comparison, though he's rather more vindictive than I could imagine Burnham ever being.

Flip flopping wasn't the problem (history is littered with successful flip floppers). It was that he was a shit flip flopper.

Cyclefree

tlg86 said:

FPT

Kinga said:

Totally OT so apologies for that but have just heard a former Jihadi/prisoner of ISIS claiming that IS has two parents: The Iraq Invasion by Bush/Blair and the failure of the west to intercede against Assad as he put down the Syrian revolution.

So basically "we hate you because you invaded a muslim state and we hate you because you didn't invade a muslim state".

No, they're saying we invaded the wrong Muslim state and have been seen to be siding with the wrong kind of Muslims.

No - it means "We hate you". "We hate you because we believe we are superior to you but this does not match with reality so this must be your fault. Nothing is ever our fault. We hate you because we have been taught to hate you. Here are two pretexts we use to justify our rage. Other pretexts are available on request."

MikeSmithson

Lord A's EURef poll did NOT ask the referendum voting question so it is not included.

[Deleted User]

The GE2015 polls were absolutely spot on with leader ratings, UKIP, LDs, & Scotland. What they got wrong were the LAB & CON shares.

The GE polls were absolutely spot for everything apart from the one thing that actually mattered.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Tom, 'he was a shit flip-flopper': are we talking about King John or Andy Burnham?

ThreeQuidder

Patrick said:

The GE2015 polls were absolutely spot on with leader ratings, UKIP, LDs, & Scotland. What they got wrong were the LAB & CON shares.

The GE polls were absolutely spot for everything apart from the one thing that actually mattered.

Harsh, but fair.

AndyJS

Interesting that Democratic pollster PPP has had the closest Trump vs Clinton numbers recently with Clinton 46% Trump 43%:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

ThreeQuidder

MikeSmithson said:

Lord A's EURef poll did NOT ask the referendum voting question so it is not included.

Why is the exact wording important? Arguably normal VI polls don't have the same question as on the ballot paper...

taffys

''Interesting that Democratic pollster PPP has had the closest Trump vs Clinton numbers recently with Clinton 46% Trump 43%:''

The latest polling has Cruz closing on Trump.

Luckyguy1983

Plato_Says said:

Priti is very pretty in a dominatrix way - but as Party leader? No way. Far too much of a hang'em and flog'em sort.

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave comes out for Remain and there's a septuple increase in Remains lead.

Cameron really is an electoral asset for Cons and every referendum he's been on.

I suppose it will depend in practice on the reaction he gets from his party, and the Conservative-leaning press.

Yup. I'm expecting a few resignations, I think Dave's going to insist on cabinet/ministerial collective responsibility during the referendum.

I think Priti should resign and campaign for Leave. For one thing, Dave didn't even give her a proper cabinet position so she could easily tell him to stick it, and for another thing, it would be her best chance of becoming party leader in the event of Leave winning.

I didn't have you down as a 'hug a hoody' fan.

Plato_Says

A few threads ago, we mentioned quick bridge building. This is rather good

WATCH: ISF learn to assemble the SAME bridges used today in Ramadi during Coalition training earlier this month. https://t.co/cAUMRy3D6x

AndyJS

Let's take a look at how Labour has been doing in local by-elections since Corbyn was elected leader:

Eastern (average Labour vote share -4.1%)
Bourn (S Cambridgeshire) +2.9%
Chedgrave & Thurton (S Norfolk) -0.8%
Dedham & Langham (Colchester) -4.3%
Hertford Heath (E Herts) -1.7%
Huntingdon East (Huntingdonshire) -2.9%
Loddon (Norfolk) -8.4%
Rochford (Rochford) -16.0%
Shenfield (Brentwood) -0.7%
S Smallborough (Norfolk) -5.3%
Watton (Norfolk) -5.4%
West (Peterborough) -2.1%

East Midlands (average -5.6%)
Belvoir (S Kesteven) -15.1%
Coal Ashton (NE Derbyshire) -6.7%
Derwent Valley (Derbyshire) -1.7%
Holmewood & Heath (NE Derbyshire) +7.4%
Market Logan (Harborough) -5.9%
Selston (Ashfield) -4.3%
Selston (Nottinghamshire) -13.2%

London (average +3.3%)
Boleyn (Newham) +7.9%
Bryanston & Dorset Square (Westminster) -5.7%
Kensal Green (Brent) -1.0%
Noel Park (Haringey) +7.5%
S Camberwell (Southwark) +9.0%
Woodside (Haringey) +1.9%

North
Howgate (Cumbria) -12.9%

North West (average -5.5%)
Carnforth & Millhead (Lancaster) -2.8%
Clifton (Fylde) -9.6%
Congleton E (E Cheshire) +1.4%
Euxton N (Chorley) +12.7%
Risedale (Barrow in Furness) -24.1%
Tottington (Bury) -10.5%

Scotland (average -8.8%)
Ayr E (S Ayrshire) -7.3%
Blantyre (S Lanarkshire) -7.0%
Dunfermline N (Fife) -18.7%
George Street/Harbour (Aberdeen) -5.4%
Glenrothes W & Kinglassie -9.3%
Irvine Valley (E Ayrshire) -6.3%
Linlithgow (W Lothian) +2.6%
Midstocket/Rosemount (Aberdeen) -11.2%
Rosyth (Fife) -13.2%
Stirling E (Stirling) -11.9%

South East (average -2.6%)
Ash South & Tongham (Guildford) -5.1%
Aylesford Green (Ashford) -32.4%
Chandler’s Ford (Hampshire) +1.9%
Epsom W (Surrey) +2.1%
Goldsworth E (Woking) -1.0%
Goldsworth W (Woking) +1.3%
Grimsbury & Castle (Cherwell) +5.9%
Northfield Brook (Oxford) +2.1%
Sandford & the Wittenhams (S Oxfordshire) -3.7%
Shepperton Town (Spelthorne) -4.8%
Sonning Common (S Oxfordshire) +4.7%

South West (average no change in Labour vote)
Clifton with Maidenway (Torbay) -9.0%
Kinson South (Bournemouth) +7.0%
Rodwell (Dorset) -7.3%
Salisbury St Edmund & Milford (Wiltshire) +5.6%
Totnes (South Hams) +3.7%

Wales (average +0.1%)
Bettws (Newport) +6.8%
Dewi (Gwynedd) -0.2%
Gogarth (Conwy) +1.4%
Kidwelly (Carmarthenshire) -10.6%
Ogmore Vale (Bridgend) +3.7%
Riverside (Cardiff) -0.8%

West Midlands (average -10.6%)
Belle Vue (Shropshire) -28.7%
Blakebrook & S Habberley -1.7%
Meole (Shropshire) -11.0%
Stourport-on-Severn (Worcs) -0.8%

Yorkshire & Humberside
Pontefract N (Wakefield) +0.1%

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

runnymede

'The GE2015 polls were absolutely spot on with leader ratings, UKIP, LDs, & Scotland. What they got wrong were the LAB & CON shares. '

Yes polls are right even when they are wrong. Dewey actually beat Truman as well.

JosiasJessop

Plato_Says said:

A few threads ago, we mentioned quick bridge building. This is rather good

WATCH: ISF learn to assemble the SAME bridges used today in Ramadi during Coalition training earlier this month. https://t.co/cAUMRy3D6x

Imagine doing that under fire, especially shelling ...

I hope the guys going into Ramadi have a lot of luck. ISIS have a tactic of setting many things to blow as they leave. IEDs everywhere.

SquareRoot

MikeSmithson said:

SquareRoot said:

How do we know the methodology of these polls is any better than the GE methodologies???.. The best you can say is that they tending to one direction polls, but then again so were the polls before the GE and they proved to be sub optimal for the main two parties.

IMHO treat with considerable caution.

The GE2015 polls were absolutely spot on with leader ratings, UKIP, LDs, & Scotland. What they got wrong were the LAB & CON shares.

That's like saying the polling companies got the results right in the Championship downwards but got it completely wrong in the Premier League. Con and Lab were the most critical voting shares and they got it very wrong.

MaxPB

Danny565 said:

Razedabode said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/12/the-electoral-challenge-how-are-labour-performing-in-by-elections-since-corbyn-became-leader/

But hey, they won Oldham so...

Talking about changes in share of vote are pretty useless if they don't indicate the date of the last election.

A drop in Labour's vote from any council election held in May 2015 (on a day when they were already 7% behind nationally) is very worrying indeed. But a drop back from a council election held in May 2012 (their midterm peak where they were well ahead in national polls) is to be expected.

Not really, Labour are still in opposition, they should expect to be making gains in local elections all the time, barring any specific local issues where the party or candidate has done something stupid. The Tories made a lot of gains from 1997-2010 in local elections, there wasn't a single one where they went backwards, even under Hague and IDS they were making gains from Labour and then under Dave they pushed even further. If Corbyn's team are going to manage expectations about 2012 being the high watermark then they are in real trouble already. Hague, who was as poor a leader as Ed, made better gains than Ed did and look at where they both ended up.

Pulpstar

taffys said:

''Interesting that Democratic pollster PPP has had the closest Trump vs Clinton numbers recently with Clinton 46% Trump 43%:''

The latest polling has Cruz closing on Trump.

Trump couldn't have orchestrated his opponents any better than they are:

His main polling rival, Ted Cruz is unlikely to prove overly popular away from southern/bible facing states. I'm not saying Cruz can't win, but it is difficult for an evangelical candidate to do so.

The early front runner (Yes he was at one very, very early point) and grandee favourite Jeb Bush has tanked completely. He STILL has the most endorsements from the party grandees though - see http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/.
He is sitting at a not quite low enough to drop out but enough to be unthreatening in the polls ~ 7-9% or so.

Mark Rubio, the establishment's great white* NEW hope is meanwhile stuck at around 12 - 16%. Why he's 2-1 in the betting right now I'll never know. He's running a top down model and trying to get the broad support needed to sweep all before him. Except we all know how Giuliani's "Florida strategy" worked out..

Meanwhile Chris Christie is trying very hard in New Hampshire. It probably won't be enough to win, but he'll keep going and along with Jeb Bush's residual support it'll be enough to make sure Rubio probably is nowhere near Trump there. He might even finish second, SECOND ! in New Hampshire if he focusses enough effrot on it... which could gain him endorsements and cash which may otherwise head Rubio's way from Jeb's failed campaign.

Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum and whoever else is still in it are complete no hopers meanwhile, although if Carson fades further it may yet boost Cruz - cementing him even further as Trump's main rival ... but the Iowa/other bible belt main candidate is always second favourite to the less religous other contender (See Romney/Santorum).

It is all workingly amazingly well for Donald Trump.

*Sort of !

YBarddCwsc

A calculation that is worth doing is the following.

Although there has not been a referendum on an Exit before, there have been referendums in a number of countries (Denmark, Ireland, Greece, etc) on Treaty ratifications, or increased European integration or acceptance of EU bailout terms, and so on.

Of course, Irish voters famously rejected the Treaties of Nice and Lisbon first time.

In general, my impression is that the polls have always underestimated the hostility to the EU. For example, the opinion polls on the Irish 2008 referendum grossly overstated the 'in favour of acceptance' side (according to wiki)

It would be interesting to see that quantified. If there is a systematic effect, I would expect to see it replicated in UK polls for the Brexit.

(I would guess the origin of the effect is in how the Don't Knows actually break).

Plato_Says

0_o

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/12064532/Jeremy-Vine-BBC-equality-breach-for-saying-he-had-man-flu.html

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Cwsc, wasn't that 2008 vote (if memory serves) due also to a very strong anti-campaign, and the vote collapsed next time because that chap had shifted his attention towards becoming an MEP?

taffys

''It is all working amazingly well for Donald Trump.''

Thanks for that Mr. Pulpstar.

A report I read suggested Hillary's recent assault on Trump for being a gift to ISIS recruiters appeared to backfire badly.

In some respects Rodhers is a deeply flawed candidate.

Danny565

AndyJS said:

Riverside (Cardiff) -0.8%

And this is what I mean about it being misleading to lump all local elections together and present changes in vote as all on the same level without indicating the date of the previous election.

The last Cardiff local election was in May 2012, when nationally Labour were 8% higher than in May 2015. Therefore, a 1% drop from 2012 is 7% above Labour's equivalent performance at this year's GE.

FrancisUrquhart

Plato_Says said:

0_o

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/12064532/Jeremy-Vine-BBC-equality-breach-for-saying-he-had-man-flu.html

The sort of thing that tw@t from Oxford complaining about the statue would do...

If things like "man flu" become taboo, Vine's brother is going to be out of a job pretty quickly.

MaxPB

It seems like Osborne's attempts to previously cook the books by including APF transfers and asset sales under government revenue is coming back to bite him in the bum. APF receipts are down by £2bn YoY and proceeds from asset sales are down by £1bn. The real reduction in the deficit is actually better than the figures currently tell, but because Osborne is a short-termist fool he included the APF and asset sales to boost the deficit figures since 2012/13 but that is not going to last, the government can't pay interest to itself indefinitely and call it a win.

MaxPB

Also, the government are being hoist by another of their own petards, EU contributions rose YoY by over £1bn for November and the current TTM is the highest we've ever had. The cost of success has never been this bad! Honestly it is time for Dave to just tell them to f*** off and stop paying so much. If he lost on all of his negotiation points but was able to get our full rebate back, I think he could deliver a "remain" vote. The EU is punishing this country for its economic success and rewarding countries like France and Greece for their failures. It is ridiculous.

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

It seems like Osborne's attempts to previously cook the books by including APF transfers and asset sales under government revenue is coming back to bite him in the bum. APF receipts are down by £2bn YoY and proceeds from asset sales are down by £1bn. The real reduction in the deficit is actually better than the figures currently tell, but because Osborne is a short-termist fool he included the APF and asset sales to boost the deficit figures since 2012/13 but that is not going to last, the government can't pay interest to itself indefinitely and call it a win.

Typical Gordon...I mean George...I am presuming he is working on the premise that the short termism got him through the GE and that by the time of the next one the deficit will be down enough that the cooking the books will be long forgotten.

Plato_Says

BREAKING: #French authorities foil attack on the city of #Orléans south of #Paris, Al Arabiya correspondent reports

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, good news. I wonder if it was in preparation or just about to be carried out.

As an aside, Orléans is named after Emperor Aurelian.

Richard_Nabavi

@MaxPB - You are being very silly. Osborne is not responsible for the formula defining EU contributions, and the APF decision was sensible since it meant the effect was transparent quarter-by-quarter rather than at some indeterminate date in the future. Anyone reading these figures will be looking at the underlying large-scale trend, not monthly fluctuations affected by factors such as those you identify.

And here's a prediction, offered free of charge: January receipts will surprise on the upside. You read it here first.

FrancisUrquhart

Plato_Says said:

BREAKING: #French authorities foil attack on the city of #Orléans south of #Paris, Al Arabiya correspondent reports

I was just thinking that we have forgotten the this time last year there was that outbreak of "terrorist" attacks of driving cars into crowds and wondered if the nutters had plans for Christmas.

AndyJS

Fantastic news — new wind farm off Suffolk coast to go ahead:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/30/galloper-windfarm-suffolk-new-backers

Plato_Says

Something for so many PBers

Doug
It seems only right that I should point out this error. https://t.co/9ApBwlyyqk

MaxPB

Richard_Nabavi said:

@MaxPB - You are being very silly. Osborne is not responsible for the formula defining EU contributions, and the APF decision was sensible since it meant the effect was transparent quarter-by-quarter rather than at some indeterminate date in the future. Anyone reading these figures will be looking at the underlying large-scale trend, not monthly fluctuations affected by factors such as those you identify.

And here's a prediction, offered free of charge: January receipts will surprise on the upside. You read it here first.

No, it was short termist to include APF receipts in the figures. I also don't blame Osborne for the EU number, the blame lies directly with Dave for being so weak and not just telling them to bollocks off with their "emergency" increases in the budget that was agreed by all 28 nations last year.

I agree that self assessment receipts will be stronger than most expect, the level of self-employment is much higher than most models take into account.

Also, my point is that the trend in normal receipts vs normal spending (excluding stuff like the APF and EU money) is better than the headline figure, but at the moment it is Osborne and the government who look like they are not going to meet the reduction target this year. I think we are in some form of agreement!

Tom

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

Riverside (Cardiff) -0.8%

And this is what I mean about it being misleading to lump all local elections together and present changes in vote as all on the same level without indicating the date of the previous election.

The last Cardiff local election was in May 2012, when nationally Labour were 8% higher than in May 2015. Therefore, a 1% drop from 2012 is 7% above Labour's equivalent performance at this year's GE.

The comparisons are clearly a bit dodgy for the reasons you point out. However comparing them to May 2015 isn't sensible either as (as has been pointed out) you would expect Labour to be higher. Cardiff is the sort of place where Labour is typically doing well (big city, lots of students) so it is conceivable there has been a bounce there. The Aylesford result was the killer for me. Safe Lab ward in Kent, huge plunge in vote, Makes the earlier points re: Dartford, Gravesham, Medway Towns which were all labour under Blair and Corbyn has not a hope in hell of winning.

SandyRentool

Plato_Says said:

Something for so many PBers

Doug
It seems only right that I should point out this error. https://t.co/9ApBwlyyqk

Pity it's a fake. Or am I being too pendantic? Edit: Oh I see it claims not to be a fake. Funny it is spelt right on the lid.

AndyJS

"Polly Toynbee — Labour people are optimists, but this time I see no hope

I have tried to believe Jeremy Corbyn can win the 2020 election, but more and more it feels like believing in Father Christmas"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/22/labour-people-optimists-see-no-hope-jeremy-corbyn