politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters Christmas Special Podcast – Part 1
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At the moment the referendum is likely a narrow In which would be the best result for UKIPfelix said:
He said it was time for a new face after Oldham. He should also have pointed to the local by-election collapse. Fact is the party is dead in the water and will lose the referendum badly on the current trajectory.blackburn63 said:
Thanks, what did he say?foxinsoxuk said:
It was on R4 Today programme.blackburn63 said:
Where did you read this? It's hardly surprising but I'm interested to see the context.foxinsoxuk said:I see Douglas Carswell has called for Farage to go. Apparently a fresh face is required to shake off UKIPs illiberal image.
These kipper-bashers get everywhere nowadays...0 -
all depends on how popular the tories are though, doesn't it? At the moment it looks unlikely, but who knows in a couple of years?Plato_Says said:I really can't see the voters touching a SNP/Labour pact with a barge pole. The SNP want to be a rival nation - it's totally at odds with the notion of HMG.
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I guess it depends on what you think the point of UKIP is...HYUFD said:
At the moment the referendum is likely a narrow In which would be the best result for UKIPfelix said:
He said it was time for a new face after Oldham. He should also have pointed to the local by-election collapse. Fact is the party is dead in the water and will lose the referendum badly on the current trajectory.blackburn63 said:
Thanks, what did he say?foxinsoxuk said:
It was on R4 Today programme.blackburn63 said:
Where did you read this? It's hardly surprising but I'm interested to see the context.foxinsoxuk said:I see Douglas Carswell has called for Farage to go. Apparently a fresh face is required to shake off UKIPs illiberal image.
These kipper-bashers get everywhere nowadays...0 -
If he'd added another nought on the end of the increased salary, I'd be starting to wonder whether the pay level was a little high.SouthamObserver said:
Not much of a tough choice or being in it together to give your a senior adviser a 40% pay rise though, is it?AlastairMeeks said:A Greek chorus has burst into song. Yet the mewling and squawking we'd hear on here if an avoidable policy screw-up costing billions emerged from the Treasury would be unbearable. £98,000 a year sounds ridiculously low for such a senior post within the executive.
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That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill townsdr_spyn said:PoliticsHome @politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk0 -
I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).
He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.0 -
maybe he wants to try and win the referendum insteadHYUFD said:
That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill townsdr_spyn said:PoliticsHome @politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk0 -
Douglas Carswell won't return to the Conservative party while David Cameron remains leader (or if George Osborne takes over from him). I can imagine him sitting as an independent.0
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Mr. Eagles, what crime is more unforgivable than treason?
[Approximate quote from Princess Karena, in my forthcoming book Kingdom Asunder
].
Alexander slew Parmenio just because the latter's son was likely a traitor.0 -
Precisely. Such a party would gain intellectual support, but have little mass appeal.HYUFD said:
That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill townsdr_spyn said:PoliticsHome @politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk
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Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.0
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I'm guessing from the Civil Service pay scales that £98k is departmental head grade. Sounds perfectly reasonable to me - they'll work 80hrs a week for it in realityAlastairMeeks said:
A Greek chorus has burst into song. Yet the mewling and squawking we'd hear on here if an avoidable policy screw-up costing billions emerged from the Treasury would be unbearable. £98,000 a year sounds ridiculously low for such a senior post within the executive.
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The crime of misuse of apostrophes.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, what crime is more unforgivable than treason?
[Approximate quote from Princess Karena, in my forthcoming book Kingdom Asunder].
Alexander slew Parmenio just because the latter's son was likely a traitor.0 -
I recall polling which suggested Ed M might be PM. Current polls are mixed - I believe recent phone polls suggest remain doing quite well - one of which featured in a very recent thread header.MP_SE said:
Polling seems to suggest momentum is increasing for leave. Would you be able to point me to some data which suggests UKIP will badly lose the referendum on whether the UK should remain a member of the EU?felix said:
He said it was time for a new face after Oldham. He should also have pointed to the local by-election collapse. Fact is the party is dead in the water and will lose the referendum badly on the current trajectory.blackburn63 said:
Thanks, what did he say?foxinsoxuk said:
It was on R4 Today programme.blackburn63 said:
Where did you read this? It's hardly surprising but I'm interested to see the context.foxinsoxuk said:I see Douglas Carswell has called for Farage to go. Apparently a fresh face is required to shake off UKIPs illiberal image.
These kipper-bashers get everywhere nowadays...0 -
Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.
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HYUFD said:
» show previous quotes
Callaghan did not become PM having just been Chancellor - which is what your original post implied. To find an example of a long serving Chancellor succeeding to the post of PM and then going on to win an election we have to go back to 1908 when Asquith took office - though even he had to be content with leading minority Governments following the 1910 elections. Neville Chamberlain never fought an election as PM whilst Baldwin was only Chancellor for 7 months and went on to lose his first election.
Re-Benn. He is not particularly leftwing unlike is father. Obviously not a Blairite either so he has the potential to be a unifying figure0 -
Not my business, but I think UKIP would be making a mistake to switch from Farage to a smiley social liberal, as Carswell suggests. Their core vote seems to me to be social conservatives of all classes, often slightly grumpy and fed up with politics: they strike me as likely to be irritated by smiley liberals, There is undoubtedly a market for the party that Carswell suggests (and several prominent UKIP supporters here would back it), but it's risky to discard your current core vote and leader in the hope of a new one.dr_spyn said:PoliticsHome @politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk
What does Sean Fear think?
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A triumph for Cameron. He has a "pathway for a deal."
Is that like a deal but it's a 'no' instead. Not even a piece of paper to wave?
Perhaps a triumphal ticker tape welcome back?
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A branding do-over is desperately needed. I don't mind the purple - but the £ is just so dated and clip art amateurish.TOPPING said:
I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).
He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.0 -
Meanwhile v happy to see Arlene Foster doing well as leader of the DUP now. It was shocking the way she was treated by Strictly.0
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Mr. CD13, blasphemy! Are you not persuaded by the conclusive possibility that we enjoy the potential discussion of movement towards, in some manner, a compromise on some aspects that Cameron wants?
Some people are never happy.
Mr. Topping, to win outright, I agree. But to win more MPs, UKIP can certainly do that whilst being socially conservative.
Mr. Eagles, if that's a reference to the edit, it was originally former's, not latter's, rather than an apostrophe failure 0 -
Fat per se isn't unhealthy. Quite the opposite. Unsaturated fat is. The myth of fat being unhealthy bears a great deal of the responsibility for our current woeful public health.foxinsoxuk said:
Yes. Though I think Mrs May has backed down, nurses are not subject to the cap from November.JosiasJessop said:
According to the radio report, they even managed to get an 'NHS crisis' into the report as well ...:(Casino_Royale said:Immigration is at an all-time high, and the immigration cap clearly isn't working, so let's remove it and make the immigration figures even higher, say MPs:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35128149
http://www.nursingtimes.net/roles/nurse-managers/immigration-cap-would-halve-uks-migrant-nurse-workforce/5043358.fullarticle
There are many sides to some of the current problems in the NHs including an ageing population, fragmented families unable to cope with sick relatives, Britains love of sugar salt and fat etc. Some are own goals by the government though: restrictions on international Nurse recruitment, the paycut of the new Junior doctors contract leading to a recruitment crisis, caps on agency/locum ratesleaving staffing gaps and cuts in social care by councils.
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No party has a very deep base of support, now. The important thing for UKIP, at this point, is to get people to vote for them, rather than worrying about people voting against them (that's what you worry about when you're on 30%+). Offering something distinctive is sensible, if you want to reach 20% or so.TOPPING said:
Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.
There will come a time, in this Parliament, when the government's popularity sags. And disillusioned Conservatives won't be switching to Corbyn's Labour Party. So, UKIP have to wait patiently to pick up these voters.0 -
I suspect he'd be a lot happier as an Indy MP - he's an ideas man. I'm not convinced he's suited to being a cog in any machine.DavidL said:
Its almost as if Carswell believed that he had joined a real political party as opposed to a bandwagon for Farage. Such naivety in an elected politician is positively dangerous.
But then I always found Carswell like that. Sweeping, simplistic solutions to complex problems without any consideration at all of vested interests. His heart is in the right place but...
He is about to find once again that vested interests like Farage are not just small bumps in the road to be ridden over. My guess is he will be an independent MP within the month. I wonder if the failure to agree the unification of the Out campaigns has caused him to go public.0 -
Not a reference to that more to seaside town's (sic)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. CD13, blasphemy! Are you not persuaded by the conclusive possibility that we enjoy the potential discussion of movement towards, in some manner, a compromise on some aspects that Cameron wants?
Some people are never happy.
Mr. Topping, to win outright, I agree. But to win more MPs, UKIP can certainly do that whilst being socially conservative.
Mr. Eagles, if that's a reference to the edit, it was originally former's, not latter's, rather than an apostrophe failure0 -
Morning all,Plato_Says said:A branding do-over is desperately needed. I don't mind the purple - but the £ is just so dated and clip art amateurish.
TOPPING said:I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).
He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.
Carswell is a dreamer. Nothing wrong with that sometimes. But he wants, to quote, an "optimistic, sunshine, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". This so does not fit the average UKIP voter from all I have seen, who is fundamentally, angry at the world.0 -
He looks to me as if he is heading that way.AlastairMeeks said:Douglas Carswell won't return to the Conservative party while David Cameron remains leader (or if George Osborne takes over from him). I can imagine him sitting as an independent.
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HYUFD said:
'He would not get the chance as the largest party gets the chance to form a government first.'
That is not correct. It is the incumbent PM who gets the first chance regardless of whether he heads the largest party. Brown could have remained in office for a few more weeks in 2010 and taken his dismissal from Parliament at the time of defeat on the Queen's Speech rather than resigning at the time of a coalition deal having been reached.
If in 2020 Labour and the SNP - together with other parties - have the votes to defeat the Tories on a Queen's Speech, they will do so - without any deal having been reached between them. Their supporters would expect nothing less0 -
He could and should do a reverse David Miliband and make a play for the party. He is probably (and certainly comes across as) too nice for that.rottenborough said:
He looks to me as if he is heading that way.AlastairMeeks said:Douglas Carswell won't return to the Conservative party while David Cameron remains leader (or if George Osborne takes over from him). I can imagine him sitting as an independent.
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Carswell taken back.. only in a parallel universe. Why would you trust someone who had defected.. Just think of his back story on speaking out for UKIP, loads of trouble there..0
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In an amusing twist of fate - Kippers could become the Party of Muslims if they got their messaging right
Morris_Dancer said:Mr. CD13, blasphemy! Are you not persuaded by the conclusive possibility that we enjoy the potential discussion of movement towards, in some manner, a compromise on some aspects that Cameron wants?
Some people are never happy.
Mr. Topping, to win outright, I agree. But to win more MPs, UKIP can certainly do that whilst being socially conservative.
Mr. Eagles, if that's a reference to the edit, it was originally former's, not latter's, rather than an apostrophe failure0 -
A Lab to Con swing in all three of last night's council by-elections where both parties stood.
It's happening every week.0 -
I agree with your analysis.NickPalmer said:
Not my business, but I think UKIP would be making a mistake to switch from Farage to a smiley social liberal, as Carswell suggests. Their core vote seems to me to be social conservatives of all classes, often slightly grumpy and fed up with politics: they strike me as likely to be irritated by smiley liberals, There is undoubtedly a market for the party that Carswell suggests (and several prominent UKIP supporters here would back it), but it's risky to discard your current core vote and leader in the hope of a new one.dr_spyn said:PoliticsHome @politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk
What does Sean Fear think?0 -
And utterly irrelevant. Nobody now believes there's any chance of us being forced into the euro - that battle has been fought and won (thanks, Jimmy).Plato_Says said:A branding do-over is desperately needed. I don't mind the purple - but the £ is just so dated and clip art amateurish.
TOPPING said:I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).
He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.
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Churchill was a frequent defector and he turned out alright.SquareRoot said:Carswell taken back.. only in a parallel universe. Why would you trust someone who had defected.. Just think of his back story on speaking out for UKIP, loads of trouble there..
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Wealthy socially liberal bankers are not the swing voters in EU refdugarbandier said:
maybe he wants to try and win the referendum insteadHYUFD said:
That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill townsdr_spyn said:PoliticsHome @politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk0 -
Indeed Libertarian policies have support from about 10% of votersSean_F said:
Precisely. Such a party would gain intellectual support, but have little mass appeal.HYUFD said:
That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill townsdr_spyn said:PoliticsHome @politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk0 -
Jezza is still on 30% UKIP are on less than 15% while a third of voters are socially conservative only 10% are libertariansTOPPING said:
Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.
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No rubbish as Major and Macmillan won after being Chancellor and the only other winner taking over in power, Eden, was Foreign Secretary so Osborne's only alternative would be Hammondjustin124 said:HYUFD said:
» show previous quotes
Callaghan did not become PM having just been Chancellor - which is what your original post implied. To find an example of a long serving Chancellor succeeding to the post of PM and then going on to win an election we have to go back to 1908 when Asquith took office - though even he had to be content with leading minority Governments following the 1910 elections. Neville Chamberlain never fought an election as PM whilst Baldwin was only Chancellor for 7 months and went on to lose his first election.
Re-Benn. He is not particularly leftwing unlike is father. Obviously not a Blairite either so he has the potential to be a unifying figure0 -
Churchill was an exception. Carswell is no Churchill..TheScreamingEagles said:
Churchill was a frequent defector and he turned out alright.SquareRoot said:Carswell taken back.. only in a parallel universe. Why would you trust someone who had defected.. Just think of his back story on speaking out for UKIP, loads of trouble there..
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I totally agree - UKIP doesn't want to be like the Tories 2005 when they picked Cameron.
Kipper voters are quite different beasts IME. I think being more positive in their messaging would really help though. Being anti-everything only goes so far. But being smiley and socially liberal?? Carswell is away with the faeries.rottenborough said:
Morning all,Plato_Says said:A branding do-over is desperately needed. I don't mind the purple - but the £ is just so dated and clip art amateurish.
TOPPING said:I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).
He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.
Carswell is a dreamer. Nothing wrong with that sometimes. But he wants, to quote, an "optimistic, sunshine, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". This so does not fit the average UKIP voter from all I have seen, who is fundamentally, angry at the world.0 -
The final result from last night's by elections Ryedale Derwent ward was a Liberal gain from Conservative
Liberal 283
Con 278
Ind 124
LDem ( but no desc on ballot paper due to nomination error ) 81
Yorkshire 1st 32
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Osborne would be PM and would get first chance anyway while most Labour MPs now loathe the SNP even more than the Tories and the feeling is mutual from the mats. In any case post boundary changes if the largest party the Tories will likely have a clear lead and can do a deal with UKIP and the DUP to stay in officejustin124 said:
HYUFD said:
'He would not get the chance as the largest party gets the chance to form a government first.'
That is not correct. It is the incumbent PM who gets the first chance regardless of whether he heads the largest party. Brown could have remained in office for a few more weeks in 2010 and taken his dismissal from Parliament at the time of defeat on the Queen's Speech rather than resigning at the time of a coalition deal having been reached.
If in 2020 Labour and the SNP - together with other parties - have the votes to defeat the Tories on a Queen's Speech, they will do so - without any deal having been reached between them. Their supporters would expect nothing less0 -
Being poached by your bitter rival is surely a blackspot. No one would trust him here - what's to stop him doing it again the next time he was frustrated?
I like him - but wouldn't re-employ him.SquareRoot said:Carswell taken back.. only in a parallel universe. Why would you trust someone who had defected.. Just think of his back story on speaking out for UKIP, loads of trouble there..
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The two main parties, simply by their branding and history and the fact of their being the two main parties, are guaranteed 30% in any election fought under current conditions. Unless there's a major split in one or other, everyone's fighting over the other 40%.Sean_F said:
No party has a very deep base of support, now.TOPPING said:
Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.
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Mr. Senior, cheers for those numbers.
Disappointing to see Yorkshire First standing, but glad they did so poorly.
And well done to the old Liberal Party for winning something. Can't happen too often.0 -
So the Lib Dem got roundly thrashed.MarkSenior said:The final result from last night's by elections Ryedale Derwent ward was a Liberal gain from Conservative
Liberal 283
Con 278
Ind 124
LDem ( but no desc on ballot paper due to nomination error ) 81
Yorkshire 1st 320 -
@Conorpope: Poor Douglas Carswell, who somehow did not realise he was joining an anti-immigration party run by Nigel Farage.0 -
Afraid I disagree. I think Labour's core base is much lower, maybe 25%, perhaps even 20%. We'll be finding out in a few years time.ThreeQuidder said:
The two main parties, simply by their branding and history and the fact of their being the two main parties, are guaranteed 30% in any election fought under current conditions. Unless there's a major split in one or other, everyone's fighting over the other 40%.Sean_F said:
No party has a very deep base of support, now.TOPPING said:
Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.
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I think you're mistaking The Liberal Party for The Liberal Democrats *Innocent Face*Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Senior, cheers for those numbers.
Disappointing to see Yorkshire First standing, but glad they did so poorly.
And well done to the old Liberal Party for winning something. Can't happen too often.0 -
The Labour vote is stuffed to the gills with socially conservative voters, but they're the ones UKIP tends to want out of Britain.TOPPING said:
Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.
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Ooof
@stephenkb: Source reminds me of Ukip's one rule: "Nigel always wins" (Unless it's a seat in the Commons) http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2015/12/douglas-carswell-brings-ukips-splits-open0 -
HYUFD said:
I was thinking of the remain leaning conservative votersdugarbandier said:
Wealthy socially liberal bankers are not the swing voters in EU ref0 -
Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?
If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.0 -
It seems Ryedale is the heartland of the post-89 Liberal Party. Good for them.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Senior, cheers for those numbers.
Disappointing to see Yorkshire First standing, but glad they did so poorly.
And well done to the old Liberal Party for winning something. Can't happen too often.0 -
Impossible to say how many Lib Dems voted Liberal because there appeared to be no Lib Dem on the ballot paper but certainly enough for the Conservatives to lose the seat .SquareRoot said:
So the Lib Dem got roundly thrashed.MarkSenior said:The final result from last night's by elections Ryedale Derwent ward was a Liberal gain from Conservative
Liberal 283
Con 278
Ind 124
LDem ( but no desc on ballot paper due to nomination error ) 81
Yorkshire 1st 320 -
"Pique " dear lady not Peak.Plato_Says said:Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?
If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.0 -
They u-turned again and took some Short money.Plato_Says said:Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?
If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.0 -
Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?0
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Plays for Barcelona. Fabulous girlfriend.SquareRoot said:
"Pique " dear lady not Peak.Plato_Says said:Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?
If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.0 -
Nah is a 'w' surelyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?
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Mr. Eagles, only if you do one of them in reverse...0
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The technical term for UKIP's manoeuvre is 'spin', likely to result in a skid mark...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?
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@DPJHodges: Labour supporters saying "didn't @DouglasCarswell know which party was joining?". He's got guts to speak out against his leader. Have you?
@DPJHodges: Would presumably be better if Carswell continued to tolerate his leader's excesses, united behind him and "took the fight to the Tories".0 -
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Luckily, Farage doesn't have any sense. So we can all watch his egotistical hissy fit with great amusement.dr_spyn said:As Cameron buggers up his own EU 're-negotiation' strategy, he can sleep more easily during the next Carswell Farage spat. If Farage had had any sense, he wouldn't have cancelled his resignation in May.
Never interrupt your enemies whilst they are making a mistake.
Radio4 made an excellent programme on Farage and UKIP, a year or so ago. Things are turning out as they predicted.0 -
Dearie me - what a faux pas!
SquareRoot said:
"Pique " dear lady not Peak.Plato_Says said:Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?
If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.0 -
Congratulations to the Liberals !0
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Urgh. I'm sure this clever wheeze won't backfire - no, Siree. Unsurprisingly, the RSPCA use this service.
Charities trawling public will records to chase bereaved relatives for gifts http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4644201.ece0 -
Significant difference seems to be that LibDems favour staying in the EU and Libs would LEAVE. All to do with belief in Free Trade.MarkSenior said:
Impossible to say how many Lib Dems voted Liberal because there appeared to be no Lib Dem on the ballot paper but certainly enough for the Conservatives to lose the seat .SquareRoot said:
So the Lib Dem got roundly thrashed.MarkSenior said:The final result from last night's by elections Ryedale Derwent ward was a Liberal gain from Conservative
Liberal 283
Con 278
Ind 124
LDem ( but no desc on ballot paper due to nomination error ) 81
Yorkshire 1st 320 -
@stephenkb: Weird to think that the leaders of Britain's second and third parties are opposed by 82% and 100% of their parliamentary parties.0
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UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".
I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.0 -
The whole sector needs a massive shake up, including the Charity Commissioners, who are clearly no longer fit for purpose.Plato_Says said:Urgh. I'm sure this clever wheeze won't backfire - no, Siree.
Charities trawling public will records to chase bereaved relatives for gifts http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4644201.ece
Many charities are merely bloodsucking businesses, more concerned with the wellbeing of their own staff than the causes they claim to support. A major one mentioned in that article is one of the worst with a vast headquarters building in the southern Home Counties, and powers and ideas far, far above it's station.0 -
That'd be three U-turnsTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah is a 'w' surelyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?
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I'd set someone like Tom Windsor on the charities - he's fearless.watford30 said:
The whole sector needs a massive shake up, including the Charity Commissioners, who are clearly no longer fit for purpose.Plato_Says said:Urgh. I'm sure this clever wheeze won't backfire - no, Siree.
Charities trawling public will records to chase bereaved relatives for gifts http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4644201.ece
Many charities are merely bloodsucking businesses, more concerned with the wellbeing of their own staff than the causes they claim to support. A major one mentioned in that article is one of the worst with a vast headquarters building in the southern Home Counties, and powers and ideas far, far above it's station.0 -
More evidence that every candidate is trying to lose the election: this time a Bernie Sanders OG.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/18/politics/bernie-sanders-campaign-dnc-suspension/index.html0 -
Without Nigel Farage Ukip wouldn't have won the Euros, we wouldn't be having a referendum and Ukip wouldn't have got nearly 4m votes, for those reasons he has and deserves enormous respect in the party. However all political careers end, most badly, and I'd love to see a dignified exit for Nigel. He can be absolutely proud of his achievements, no non Westminster politician has done as much to shape politics in the UK.
There are several good quality people within the party capable of leading, albeit in a different style, my choice would be Suzanne Evans with Stephen Woolfe and Paul Nuttall taking prominent roles.
I have utmost respect and regard for Nigel, I sincerely hope that despite the efforts and wishes of some it doesn't end acrimoniously.0 -
Colour me shocked - Muslim Council of Britain has secret links to Muslim Brotherhood says government report http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/faith/article4644129.ece
It's been delayed since 2014 and released just in time for Christmas. Someone was trying to lose it in the wash-up and failed.0 -
Sheesh my humour is far too intellectual for PBers.RobD said:
That'd be three U-turnsTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah is a 'w' surelyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?
Two 'u' is double u = W.
Why can't people be as intelligent as me, has been a curse all my life. 0 -
Very much agree with that blackburn630
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Farage is like Hannibal. Good at winning some impressive battles, but you need someone else/better to win the war.blackburn63 said:Without Nigel Farage Ukip wouldn't have won the Euros, we wouldn't be having a referendum and Ukip wouldn't have got nearly 4m votes, for those reasons he has and deserves enormous respect in the party. However all political careers end, most badly, and I'd love to see a dignified exit for Nigel. He can be absolutely proud of his achievements, no non Westminster politician has done as much to shape politics in the UK.
There are several good quality people within the party capable of leading, albeit in a different style, my choice would be Suzanne Evans with Stephen Woolfe and Paul Nuttall taking prominent roles.
I have utmost respect and regard for Nigel, I sincerely hope that despite the efforts and wishes of some it doesn't end acrimoniously.0 -
Mr. Eagles, Kim Jong-Il asked the same question before breaking into I'm So Ronery.0
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yeah, but it-s only a U turn due to the shapeTheScreamingEagles said:
Sheesh my humour is far too intellectual for PBers.RobD said:
That'd be three U-turnsTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah is a 'w' surelyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?
Two 'u' is double u = W.
Why can't people be as intelligent as me, has been a curse all my life. 0 -
@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes: It's 5/1 that @DouglasCarswell leaves UKIP before year end. https://t.co/9DvcBUyszH https://t.co/EoK7g4paPg0
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Wrong comparison. In footballing terms Farage took a team from the Conference to the QF of the Champions League. Now whether anybody is capable of building on that remains to be seen, but nobody else would have been capable of what he's done.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farage is like Hannibal. Good at winning some impressive battles, but you need someone else/better to win the war.blackburn63 said:Without Nigel Farage Ukip wouldn't have won the Euros, we wouldn't be having a referendum and Ukip wouldn't have got nearly 4m votes, for those reasons he has and deserves enormous respect in the party. However all political careers end, most badly, and I'd love to see a dignified exit for Nigel. He can be absolutely proud of his achievements, no non Westminster politician has done as much to shape politics in the UK.
There are several good quality people within the party capable of leading, albeit in a different style, my choice would be Suzanne Evans with Stephen Woolfe and Paul Nuttall taking prominent roles.
I have utmost respect and regard for Nigel, I sincerely hope that despite the efforts and wishes of some it doesn't end acrimoniously.
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un-turn?RobD said:
yeah, but it-s only a U turn due to the shapeTheScreamingEagles said:
Sheesh my humour is far too intellectual for PBers.RobD said:
That'd be three U-turnsTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah is a 'w' surelyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?
Two 'u' is double u = W.
Why can't people be as intelligent as me, has been a curse all my life.0 -
That essentially means "today", doesn't it? Any later would have no impact.Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes: It's 5/1 that @DouglasCarswell leaves UKIP before year end. https://t.co/9DvcBUyszH https://t.co/EoK7g4paPg
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That would be their best option I think. To be honest it might be Labour's best option.SandyRentool said:UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".
I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.0 -
Miss Plato, there's been a lot of chatter that the BBC will ditch F1. I'd probably be more surprised if they kept it.0
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Inequality Friday (a postscript to my pb piece the other day):
@ONS · 25m25 minutes ago
Least wealthy 50% of households owned 9% of household wealth in 2012/14
http://ow.ly/W42Zi
@ONS · 26m26 minutes ago
Wealthiest 10% of households owned 45% of household wealth in 2012/14 http://ow.ly/W42Vd
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Good morning all.
This is what matters, as it's proven that all governments have sold us out to the EU, the Cameron government lying with aplomb to the British people. This from The Times on Cameron's retreat from nothing:
"The breakthrough came after the government was accused of a cover-up as it emerged that it had justified withholding up-to-date figures on the number of EU migrants in or seeking jobs in Britain because their release would be “unhelpful to the renegotiation process”.
Figures showed that nearly two million migrants from the EU had been given national insurance cards to work in Britain over the past four years — more than twice the number officially estimated as entering the country."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4644221.ece
No wonder our streets, hospitals, schools etc., are crowded and full to bursting.
The world of my grandchildren and great grandchildren will be very unpleasant indeed.0 -
If you missed The Moggster squishing Dimbleby on QT - this is just epic http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12057517/Jacob-Rees-Mogg-takes-down-David-Dimbleby-after-attempts-to-mock-his-Eton-education.html0
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Isn't that Cameron's Conservatives?dr_spyn said:PoliticsHome @politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk
Why defect then?0 -
How is that 'unhelpful to renegotiation'? Wouldn't it mean the 'problem' was even bigger, strengthening Cameron's hand?MikeK said:Good morning all.
This is what matters, as it's proven that all governments have sold us out to the EU, the Cameron government lying with aplomb to the British people. This from The Times on Cameron's retreat from nothing:
"The breakthrough came after the government was accused of a cover-up as it emerged that it had justified withholding up-to-date figures on the number of EU migrants in or seeking jobs in Britain because their release would be “unhelpful to the renegotiation process”.
Figures showed that nearly two million migrants from the EU had been given national insurance cards to work in Britain over the past four years — more than twice the number officially estimated as entering the country."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4644221.ece
No wonder our streets, hospitals, schools etc., are crowded and full to bursting.
The world of my grandchildren and great grandchildren will be very unpleasant indeed.0 -
Its perfectly possible to be libertarian and blue collar, if you're a bricklayer you might not be a philosophical deep thinker but you don't want the govt telling you that you can't smoke in your van. Or that you have to file tax returns every 3 months.Wanderer said:
That would be their best option I think. To be honest it might be Labour's best option.SandyRentool said:UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".
I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.
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Is that net wealth?AlastairMeeks said:Inequality Friday (a postscript to my pb piece the other day):
@ONS · 25m25 minutes ago
Least wealthy 50% of households owned 9% of household wealth in 2012/14
http://ow.ly/W42Zi
@ONS · 26m26 minutes ago
Wealthiest 10% of households owned 45% of household wealth in 2012/14 http://ow.ly/W42Vd0 -
The Tories are very fortunate that the two biggest opposition parties (by vote share) are ideologically bound from extending their support into their most fertile category.Wanderer said:
That would be their best option I think. To be honest it might be Labour's best option.SandyRentool said:UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".
I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.0 -
Why shouldn't they? PAYE employees need their income filing every time they get paid. If you're fortnightly paid that's every fortnight so 26 times a year. If you're monthly paid then it's monthly so 12 HMRC submissions a year.blackburn63 said:
Its perfectly possible to be libertarian and blue collar, if you're a bricklayer you might not be a philosophical deep thinker but you don't want the govt telling you that you can't smoke in your van. Or that you have to file tax returns every 3 months.Wanderer said:
That would be their best option I think. To be honest it might be Labour's best option.SandyRentool said:UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".
I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.
Other than an anachronism what is wrong with joining the modern era like every other person?0 -
Welcome to PB, Mr @NorfolkTilIDie - you didn't used to an Albion supporter, did you?NorfolkTilIDie said:
How is that 'unhelpful to renegotiation'? Wouldn't it mean the 'problem' was even bigger, strengthening Cameron's hand?MikeK said:Good morning all.
This is what matters, as it's proven that all governments have sold us out to the EU, the Cameron government lying with aplomb to the British people. This from The Times on Cameron's retreat from nothing:
"The breakthrough came after the government was accused of a cover-up as it emerged that it had justified withholding up-to-date figures on the number of EU migrants in or seeking jobs in Britain because their release would be “unhelpful to the renegotiation process”.
Figures showed that nearly two million migrants from the EU had been given national insurance cards to work in Britain over the past four years — more than twice the number officially estimated as entering the country."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4644221.ece
No wonder our streets, hospitals, schools etc., are crowded and full to bursting.
The world of my grandchildren and great grandchildren will be very unpleasant indeed.0
