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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters Christmas Special Podcast – Part 1

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,147
    felix said:

    I see Douglas Carswell has called for Farage to go. Apparently a fresh face is required to shake off UKIPs illiberal image.

    These kipper-bashers get everywhere nowadays...

    Where did you read this? It's hardly surprising but I'm interested to see the context.

    It was on R4 Today programme.
    Thanks, what did he say?

    He said it was time for a new face after Oldham. He should also have pointed to the local by-election collapse. Fact is the party is dead in the water and will lose the referendum badly on the current trajectory.
    At the moment the referendum is likely a narrow In which would be the best result for UKIP
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited 2015 18

    I really can't see the voters touching a SNP/Labour pact with a barge pole. The SNP want to be a rival nation - it's totally at odds with the notion of HMG.

    all depends on how popular the tories are though, doesn't it? At the moment it looks unlikely, but who knows in a couple of years?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    I see Douglas Carswell has called for Farage to go. Apparently a fresh face is required to shake off UKIPs illiberal image.

    These kipper-bashers get everywhere nowadays...

    Where did you read this? It's hardly surprising but I'm interested to see the context.

    It was on R4 Today programme.
    Thanks, what did he say?

    He said it was time for a new face after Oldham. He should also have pointed to the local by-election collapse. Fact is the party is dead in the water and will lose the referendum badly on the current trajectory.
    At the moment the referendum is likely a narrow In which would be the best result for UKIP
    I guess it depends on what you think the point of UKIP is...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    A Greek chorus has burst into song. Yet the mewling and squawking we'd hear on here if an avoidable policy screw-up costing billions emerged from the Treasury would be unbearable. £98,000 a year sounds ridiculously low for such a senior post within the executive.

    Not much of a tough choice or being in it together to give your a senior adviser a 40% pay rise though, is it?

    If he'd added another nought on the end of the increased salary, I'd be starting to wonder whether the pay level was a little high.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,147
    dr_spyn said:

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
    Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk

    That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill towns
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,284
    edited 2015 18
    I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).

    He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
    Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk

    That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill towns
    maybe he wants to try and win the referendum instead
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Douglas Carswell won't return to the Conservative party while David Cameron remains leader (or if George Osborne takes over from him). I can imagine him sitting as an independent.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    edited 2015 18
    Mr. Eagles, what crime is more unforgivable than treason?

    [Approximate quote from Princess Karena, in my forthcoming book Kingdom Asunder :p].

    Alexander slew Parmenio just because the latter's son was likely a traitor.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,883
    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
    Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk

    That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill towns
    Precisely. Such a party would gain intellectual support, but have little mass appeal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm guessing from the Civil Service pay scales that £98k is departmental head grade. Sounds perfectly reasonable to me - they'll work 80hrs a week for it in reality

    A Greek chorus has burst into song. Yet the mewling and squawking we'd hear on here if an avoidable policy screw-up costing billions emerged from the Treasury would be unbearable. £98,000 a year sounds ridiculously low for such a senior post within the executive.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Mr. Eagles, what crime is more unforgivable than treason?

    [Approximate quote from Princess Karena, in my forthcoming book Kingdom Asunder :p].

    Alexander slew Parmenio just because the latter's son was likely a traitor.

    The crime of misuse of apostrophes.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MP_SE said:

    felix said:

    I see Douglas Carswell has called for Farage to go. Apparently a fresh face is required to shake off UKIPs illiberal image.

    These kipper-bashers get everywhere nowadays...

    Where did you read this? It's hardly surprising but I'm interested to see the context.

    It was on R4 Today programme.
    Thanks, what did he say?

    He said it was time for a new face after Oldham. He should also have pointed to the local by-election collapse. Fact is the party is dead in the water and will lose the referendum badly on the current trajectory.
    Polling seems to suggest momentum is increasing for leave. Would you be able to point me to some data which suggests UKIP will badly lose the referendum on whether the UK should remain a member of the EU?
    I recall polling which suggested Ed M might be PM. Current polls are mixed - I believe recent phone polls suggest remain doing quite well - one of which featured in a very recent thread header.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,284

    Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.

    Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:
    » show previous quotes
    Callaghan did not become PM having just been Chancellor - which is what your original post implied. To find an example of a long serving Chancellor succeeding to the post of PM and then going on to win an election we have to go back to 1908 when Asquith took office - though even he had to be content with leading minority Governments following the 1910 elections. Neville Chamberlain never fought an election as PM whilst Baldwin was only Chancellor for 7 months and went on to lose his first election.
    Re-Benn. He is not particularly leftwing unlike is father. Obviously not a Blairite either so he has the potential to be a unifying figure
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    dr_spyn said:

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
    Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk

    Not my business, but I think UKIP would be making a mistake to switch from Farage to a smiley social liberal, as Carswell suggests. Their core vote seems to me to be social conservatives of all classes, often slightly grumpy and fed up with politics: they strike me as likely to be irritated by smiley liberals, There is undoubtedly a market for the party that Carswell suggests (and several prominent UKIP supporters here would back it), but it's risky to discard your current core vote and leader in the hope of a new one.

    What does Sean Fear think?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368

    A triumph for Cameron. He has a "pathway for a deal."

    Is that like a deal but it's a 'no' instead. Not even a piece of paper to wave?

    Perhaps a triumphal ticker tape welcome back?

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    A branding do-over is desperately needed. I don't mind the purple - but the £ is just so dated and clip art amateurish.
    TOPPING said:

    I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).

    He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,284
    Meanwhile v happy to see Arlene Foster doing well as leader of the DUP now. It was shocking the way she was treated by Strictly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. CD13, blasphemy! Are you not persuaded by the conclusive possibility that we enjoy the potential discussion of movement towards, in some manner, a compromise on some aspects that Cameron wants?

    Some people are never happy.

    Mr. Topping, to win outright, I agree. But to win more MPs, UKIP can certainly do that whilst being socially conservative.

    Mr. Eagles, if that's a reference to the edit, it was originally former's, not latter's, rather than an apostrophe failure :p
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,482

    Immigration is at an all-time high, and the immigration cap clearly isn't working, so let's remove it and make the immigration figures even higher, say MPs:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35128149

    According to the radio report, they even managed to get an 'NHS crisis' into the report as well ...:(
    Yes. Though I think Mrs May has backed down, nurses are not subject to the cap from November.

    http://www.nursingtimes.net/roles/nurse-managers/immigration-cap-would-halve-uks-migrant-nurse-workforce/5043358.fullarticle

    There are many sides to some of the current problems in the NHs including an ageing population, fragmented families unable to cope with sick relatives, Britains love of sugar salt and fat etc. Some are own goals by the government though: restrictions on international Nurse recruitment, the paycut of the new Junior doctors contract leading to a recruitment crisis, caps on agency/locum ratesleaving staffing gaps and cuts in social care by councils.

    Fat per se isn't unhealthy. Quite the opposite. Unsaturated fat is. The myth of fat being unhealthy bears a great deal of the responsibility for our current woeful public health.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,883
    TOPPING said:

    Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.

    Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.
    No party has a very deep base of support, now. The important thing for UKIP, at this point, is to get people to vote for them, rather than worrying about people voting against them (that's what you worry about when you're on 30%+). Offering something distinctive is sensible, if you want to reach 20% or so.

    There will come a time, in this Parliament, when the government's popularity sags. And disillusioned Conservatives won't be switching to Corbyn's Labour Party. So, UKIP have to wait patiently to pick up these voters.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I suspect he'd be a lot happier as an Indy MP - he's an ideas man. I'm not convinced he's suited to being a cog in any machine.
    DavidL said:

    Its almost as if Carswell believed that he had joined a real political party as opposed to a bandwagon for Farage. Such naivety in an elected politician is positively dangerous.

    But then I always found Carswell like that. Sweeping, simplistic solutions to complex problems without any consideration at all of vested interests. His heart is in the right place but...

    He is about to find once again that vested interests like Farage are not just small bumps in the road to be ridden over. My guess is he will be an independent MP within the month. I wonder if the failure to agree the unification of the Out campaigns has caused him to go public.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Mr. CD13, blasphemy! Are you not persuaded by the conclusive possibility that we enjoy the potential discussion of movement towards, in some manner, a compromise on some aspects that Cameron wants?

    Some people are never happy.

    Mr. Topping, to win outright, I agree. But to win more MPs, UKIP can certainly do that whilst being socially conservative.

    Mr. Eagles, if that's a reference to the edit, it was originally former's, not latter's, rather than an apostrophe failure :p

    Not a reference to that more to seaside town's (sic)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832

    A branding do-over is desperately needed. I don't mind the purple - but the £ is just so dated and clip art amateurish.

    TOPPING said:

    I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).

    He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.

    Morning all,

    Carswell is a dreamer. Nothing wrong with that sometimes. But he wants, to quote, an "optimistic, sunshine, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". This so does not fit the average UKIP voter from all I have seen, who is fundamentally, angry at the world.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832

    Douglas Carswell won't return to the Conservative party while David Cameron remains leader (or if George Osborne takes over from him). I can imagine him sitting as an independent.

    He looks to me as if he is heading that way.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    HYUFD said:

    'He would not get the chance as the largest party gets the chance to form a government first.'

    That is not correct. It is the incumbent PM who gets the first chance regardless of whether he heads the largest party. Brown could have remained in office for a few more weeks in 2010 and taken his dismissal from Parliament at the time of defeat on the Queen's Speech rather than resigning at the time of a coalition deal having been reached.
    If in 2020 Labour and the SNP - together with other parties - have the votes to defeat the Tories on a Queen's Speech, they will do so - without any deal having been reached between them. Their supporters would expect nothing less
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,284

    Douglas Carswell won't return to the Conservative party while David Cameron remains leader (or if George Osborne takes over from him). I can imagine him sitting as an independent.

    He looks to me as if he is heading that way.
    He could and should do a reverse David Miliband and make a play for the party. He is probably (and certainly comes across as) too nice for that.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Carswell taken back.. only in a parallel universe. Why would you trust someone who had defected.. Just think of his back story on speaking out for UKIP, loads of trouble there..
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2015 18
    In an amusing twist of fate - Kippers could become the Party of Muslims if they got their messaging right :wink:

    Mr. CD13, blasphemy! Are you not persuaded by the conclusive possibility that we enjoy the potential discussion of movement towards, in some manner, a compromise on some aspects that Cameron wants?

    Some people are never happy.

    Mr. Topping, to win outright, I agree. But to win more MPs, UKIP can certainly do that whilst being socially conservative.

    Mr. Eagles, if that's a reference to the edit, it was originally former's, not latter's, rather than an apostrophe failure :p

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    A Lab to Con swing in all three of last night's council by-elections where both parties stood.

    It's happening every week.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,883

    dr_spyn said:

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
    Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk

    Not my business, but I think UKIP would be making a mistake to switch from Farage to a smiley social liberal, as Carswell suggests. Their core vote seems to me to be social conservatives of all classes, often slightly grumpy and fed up with politics: they strike me as likely to be irritated by smiley liberals, There is undoubtedly a market for the party that Carswell suggests (and several prominent UKIP supporters here would back it), but it's risky to discard your current core vote and leader in the hope of a new one.

    What does Sean Fear think?
    I agree with your analysis.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    A branding do-over is desperately needed. I don't mind the purple - but the £ is just so dated and clip art amateurish.

    TOPPING said:

    I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).

    He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.

    And utterly irrelevant. Nobody now believes there's any chance of us being forced into the euro - that battle has been fought and won (thanks, Jimmy).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Carswell taken back.. only in a parallel universe. Why would you trust someone who had defected.. Just think of his back story on speaking out for UKIP, loads of trouble there..

    Churchill was a frequent defector and he turned out alright.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,147

    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
    Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk

    That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill towns
    maybe he wants to try and win the referendum instead
    Wealthy socially liberal bankers are not the swing voters in EU ref
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,147
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
    Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk

    That would be fine if UKIP was trying to win Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey but it is not and is trying to win seaside town's, rural areas and northern mill towns
    Precisely. Such a party would gain intellectual support, but have little mass appeal.
    Indeed Libertarian policies have support from about 10% of voters
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,147
    TOPPING said:

    Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.

    Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.
    Jezza is still on 30% UKIP are on less than 15% while a third of voters are socially conservative only 10% are libertarians
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,147
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:
    » show previous quotes
    Callaghan did not become PM having just been Chancellor - which is what your original post implied. To find an example of a long serving Chancellor succeeding to the post of PM and then going on to win an election we have to go back to 1908 when Asquith took office - though even he had to be content with leading minority Governments following the 1910 elections. Neville Chamberlain never fought an election as PM whilst Baldwin was only Chancellor for 7 months and went on to lose his first election.
    Re-Benn. He is not particularly leftwing unlike is father. Obviously not a Blairite either so he has the potential to be a unifying figure

    No rubbish as Major and Macmillan won after being Chancellor and the only other winner taking over in power, Eden, was Foreign Secretary so Osborne's only alternative would be Hammond
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Carswell taken back.. only in a parallel universe. Why would you trust someone who had defected.. Just think of his back story on speaking out for UKIP, loads of trouble there..

    Churchill was a frequent defector and he turned out alright.
    Churchill was an exception. Carswell is no Churchill..
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I totally agree - UKIP doesn't want to be like the Tories 2005 when they picked Cameron.

    Kipper voters are quite different beasts IME. I think being more positive in their messaging would really help though. Being anti-everything only goes so far. But being smiley and socially liberal?? Carswell is away with the faeries.

    A branding do-over is desperately needed. I don't mind the purple - but the £ is just so dated and clip art amateurish.

    TOPPING said:

    I like Carswell. I'm looking forward to a bloody battle from which he emerges victorious and then creates a new party (name & logo change).

    He only needs to be vaguely sensible to hoover up all kind of votes.

    Morning all,

    Carswell is a dreamer. Nothing wrong with that sometimes. But he wants, to quote, an "optimistic, sunshine, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". This so does not fit the average UKIP voter from all I have seen, who is fundamentally, angry at the world.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The final result from last night's by elections Ryedale Derwent ward was a Liberal gain from Conservative

    Liberal 283
    Con 278
    Ind 124
    LDem ( but no desc on ballot paper due to nomination error ) 81
    Yorkshire 1st 32

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,147
    justin124 said:


    HYUFD said:

    'He would not get the chance as the largest party gets the chance to form a government first.'

    That is not correct. It is the incumbent PM who gets the first chance regardless of whether he heads the largest party. Brown could have remained in office for a few more weeks in 2010 and taken his dismissal from Parliament at the time of defeat on the Queen's Speech rather than resigning at the time of a coalition deal having been reached.
    If in 2020 Labour and the SNP - together with other parties - have the votes to defeat the Tories on a Queen's Speech, they will do so - without any deal having been reached between them. Their supporters would expect nothing less

    Osborne would be PM and would get first chance anyway while most Labour MPs now loathe the SNP even more than the Tories and the feeling is mutual from the mats. In any case post boundary changes if the largest party the Tories will likely have a clear lead and can do a deal with UKIP and the DUP to stay in office
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2015 18
    Being poached by your bitter rival is surely a blackspot. No one would trust him here - what's to stop him doing it again the next time he was frustrated?

    I like him - but wouldn't re-employ him.

    Carswell taken back.. only in a parallel universe. Why would you trust someone who had defected.. Just think of his back story on speaking out for UKIP, loads of trouble there..

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited 2015 18
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.

    Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.
    No party has a very deep base of support, now.
    The two main parties, simply by their branding and history and the fact of their being the two main parties, are guaranteed 30% in any election fought under current conditions. Unless there's a major split in one or other, everyone's fighting over the other 40%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Senior, cheers for those numbers.

    Disappointing to see Yorkshire First standing, but glad they did so poorly.

    And well done to the old Liberal Party for winning something. Can't happen too often.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    The final result from last night's by elections Ryedale Derwent ward was a Liberal gain from Conservative

    Liberal 283
    Con 278
    Ind 124
    LDem ( but no desc on ballot paper due to nomination error ) 81
    Yorkshire 1st 32

    So the Lib Dem got roundly thrashed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    @Conorpope: Poor Douglas Carswell, who somehow did not realise he was joining an anti-immigration party run by Nigel Farage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.

    Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.
    No party has a very deep base of support, now.
    The two main parties, simply by their branding and history and the fact of their being the two main parties, are guaranteed 30% in any election fought under current conditions. Unless there's a major split in one or other, everyone's fighting over the other 40%.
    Afraid I disagree. I think Labour's core base is much lower, maybe 25%, perhaps even 20%. We'll be finding out in a few years time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Mr. Senior, cheers for those numbers.

    Disappointing to see Yorkshire First standing, but glad they did so poorly.

    And well done to the old Liberal Party for winning something. Can't happen too often.

    I think you're mistaking The Liberal Party for The Liberal Democrats *Innocent Face*
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    TOPPING said:

    Mr. HYUFD, I agree. There's a glut of socially liberal parties. UKIP's best electoral hope is to be socially conservative, because they'll have the field to themselves.

    Yes but not enough people are socially conservative these days. Jezza has the field to himself but he ain't going to win an election.
    The Labour vote is stuffed to the gills with socially conservative voters, but they're the ones UKIP tends to want out of Britain.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    edited 2015 18
    Ooof

    @stephenkb: Source reminds me of Ukip's one rule: "Nigel always wins" (Unless it's a seat in the Commons) http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2015/12/douglas-carswell-brings-ukips-splits-open
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    HYUFD said:



    Wealthy socially liberal bankers are not the swing voters in EU ref

    I was thinking of the remain leaning conservative voters
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?

    If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832

    Mr. Senior, cheers for those numbers.

    Disappointing to see Yorkshire First standing, but glad they did so poorly.

    And well done to the old Liberal Party for winning something. Can't happen too often.

    It seems Ryedale is the heartland of the post-89 Liberal Party. Good for them.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    The final result from last night's by elections Ryedale Derwent ward was a Liberal gain from Conservative

    Liberal 283
    Con 278
    Ind 124
    LDem ( but no desc on ballot paper due to nomination error ) 81
    Yorkshire 1st 32

    So the Lib Dem got roundly thrashed.
    Impossible to say how many Lib Dems voted Liberal because there appeared to be no Lib Dem on the ballot paper but certainly enough for the Conservatives to lose the seat .
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?

    If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.

    "Pique " dear lady not Peak.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?

    If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.

    They u-turned again and took some Short money.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?

    If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.

    "Pique " dear lady not Peak.
    Plays for Barcelona. Fabulous girlfriend.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?

    Nah is a 'w' surely
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Eagles, only if you do one of them in reverse...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?

    The technical term for UKIP's manoeuvre is 'spin', likely to result in a skid mark...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Labour supporters saying "didn't @DouglasCarswell know which party was joining?". He's got guts to speak out against his leader. Have you?

    @DPJHodges: Would presumably be better if Carswell continued to tolerate his leader's excesses, united behind him and "took the fight to the Tories".
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited 2015 18
    dr_spyn said:

    As Cameron buggers up his own EU 're-negotiation' strategy, he can sleep more easily during the next Carswell Farage spat. If Farage had had any sense, he wouldn't have cancelled his resignation in May.

    Never interrupt your enemies whilst they are making a mistake.

    Luckily, Farage doesn't have any sense. So we can all watch his egotistical hissy fit with great amusement.

    Radio4 made an excellent programme on Farage and UKIP, a year or so ago. Things are turning out as they predicted.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Dearie me - what a faux pas! :blush:

    Am I right in thinking that Nigel's fit of peak over Douglas only wanting half the Short Money, resulted in UKIP not taking any?

    If so, losing Mr Carswell as an MP would have no financial impact there.

    "Pique " dear lady not Peak.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    Congratulations to the Liberals !
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2015 18
    Urgh. I'm sure this clever wheeze won't backfire - no, Siree. Unsurprisingly, the RSPCA use this service.

    Charities trawling public will records to chase bereaved relatives for gifts http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4644201.ece
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016

    The final result from last night's by elections Ryedale Derwent ward was a Liberal gain from Conservative

    Liberal 283
    Con 278
    Ind 124
    LDem ( but no desc on ballot paper due to nomination error ) 81
    Yorkshire 1st 32

    So the Lib Dem got roundly thrashed.
    Impossible to say how many Lib Dems voted Liberal because there appeared to be no Lib Dem on the ballot paper but certainly enough for the Conservatives to lose the seat .
    Significant difference seems to be that LibDems favour staying in the EU and Libs would LEAVE. All to do with belief in Free Trade.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    @stephenkb: Weird to think that the leaders of Britain's second and third parties are opposed by 82% and 100% of their parliamentary parties.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,418
    UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".

    I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Urgh. I'm sure this clever wheeze won't backfire - no, Siree.

    Charities trawling public will records to chase bereaved relatives for gifts http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4644201.ece

    The whole sector needs a massive shake up, including the Charity Commissioners, who are clearly no longer fit for purpose.

    Many charities are merely bloodsucking businesses, more concerned with the wellbeing of their own staff than the causes they claim to support. A major one mentioned in that article is one of the worst with a vast headquarters building in the southern Home Counties, and powers and ideas far, far above it's station.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234

    Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?

    Nah is a 'w' surely
    That'd be three U-turns :D
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'd set someone like Tom Windsor on the charities - he's fearless.
    watford30 said:

    Urgh. I'm sure this clever wheeze won't backfire - no, Siree.

    Charities trawling public will records to chase bereaved relatives for gifts http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4644201.ece

    The whole sector needs a massive shake up, including the Charity Commissioners, who are clearly no longer fit for purpose.

    Many charities are merely bloodsucking businesses, more concerned with the wellbeing of their own staff than the causes they claim to support. A major one mentioned in that article is one of the worst with a vast headquarters building in the southern Home Counties, and powers and ideas far, far above it's station.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    More evidence that every candidate is trying to lose the election: this time a Bernie Sanders OG.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/18/politics/bernie-sanders-campaign-dnc-suspension/index.html
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Without Nigel Farage Ukip wouldn't have won the Euros, we wouldn't be having a referendum and Ukip wouldn't have got nearly 4m votes, for those reasons he has and deserves enormous respect in the party. However all political careers end, most badly, and I'd love to see a dignified exit for Nigel. He can be absolutely proud of his achievements, no non Westminster politician has done as much to shape politics in the UK.

    There are several good quality people within the party capable of leading, albeit in a different style, my choice would be Suzanne Evans with Stephen Woolfe and Paul Nuttall taking prominent roles.

    I have utmost respect and regard for Nigel, I sincerely hope that despite the efforts and wishes of some it doesn't end acrimoniously.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2015 18
    Colour me shocked - Muslim Council of Britain has secret links to Muslim Brotherhood says government report http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/faith/article4644129.ece

    It's been delayed since 2014 and released just in time for Christmas. Someone was trying to lose it in the wash-up and failed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?

    Nah is a 'w' surely
    That'd be three U-turns :D
    Sheesh my humour is far too intellectual for PBers.

    Two 'u' is double u = W.

    Why can't people be as intelligent as me, has been a curse all my life. :lol:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,346
    Very much agree with that blackburn63
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    edited 2015 18

    Without Nigel Farage Ukip wouldn't have won the Euros, we wouldn't be having a referendum and Ukip wouldn't have got nearly 4m votes, for those reasons he has and deserves enormous respect in the party. However all political careers end, most badly, and I'd love to see a dignified exit for Nigel. He can be absolutely proud of his achievements, no non Westminster politician has done as much to shape politics in the UK.

    There are several good quality people within the party capable of leading, albeit in a different style, my choice would be Suzanne Evans with Stephen Woolfe and Paul Nuttall taking prominent roles.

    I have utmost respect and regard for Nigel, I sincerely hope that despite the efforts and wishes of some it doesn't end acrimoniously.

    Farage is like Hannibal. Good at winning some impressive battles, but you need someone else/better to win the war.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Eagles, Kim Jong-Il asked the same question before breaking into I'm So Ronery.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?

    Nah is a 'w' surely
    That'd be three U-turns :D
    Sheesh my humour is far too intellectual for PBers.

    Two 'u' is double u = W.

    Why can't people be as intelligent as me, has been a curse all my life. :lol:
    yeah, but it-s only a U turn due to the shape :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: Ladbrokes: It's 5/1 that @DouglasCarswell leaves UKIP before year end. https://t.co/9DvcBUyszH https://t.co/EoK7g4paPg
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Without Nigel Farage Ukip wouldn't have won the Euros, we wouldn't be having a referendum and Ukip wouldn't have got nearly 4m votes, for those reasons he has and deserves enormous respect in the party. However all political careers end, most badly, and I'd love to see a dignified exit for Nigel. He can be absolutely proud of his achievements, no non Westminster politician has done as much to shape politics in the UK.

    There are several good quality people within the party capable of leading, albeit in a different style, my choice would be Suzanne Evans with Stephen Woolfe and Paul Nuttall taking prominent roles.

    I have utmost respect and regard for Nigel, I sincerely hope that despite the efforts and wishes of some it doesn't end acrimoniously.

    Farage is like Hannibal. Good at winning some impressive battles, but you need someone else/better to win the war.
    Wrong comparison. In footballing terms Farage took a team from the Conference to the QF of the Champions League. Now whether anybody is capable of building on that remains to be seen, but nobody else would have been capable of what he's done.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,418
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, surely two u-turns in rapid succession is effectively a doughnut?

    Nah is a 'w' surely
    That'd be three U-turns :D
    Sheesh my humour is far too intellectual for PBers.

    Two 'u' is double u = W.

    Why can't people be as intelligent as me, has been a curse all my life. :lol:
    yeah, but it-s only a U turn due to the shape :p
    un-turn?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: Ladbrokes: It's 5/1 that @DouglasCarswell leaves UKIP before year end. https://t.co/9DvcBUyszH https://t.co/EoK7g4paPg

    That essentially means "today", doesn't it? Any later would have no impact.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".

    I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.

    That would be their best option I think. To be honest it might be Labour's best option.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Miss Plato, there's been a lot of chatter that the BBC will ditch F1. I'd probably be more surprised if they kept it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Inequality Friday (a postscript to my pb piece the other day):

    @ONS · 25m25 minutes ago
    Least wealthy 50% of households owned 9% of household wealth in 2012/14
    http://ow.ly/W42Zi

    @ONS · 26m26 minutes ago
    Wealthiest 10% of households owned 45% of household wealth in 2012/14 http://ow.ly/W42Vd
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning all.

    This is what matters, as it's proven that all governments have sold us out to the EU, the Cameron government lying with aplomb to the British people. This from The Times on Cameron's retreat from nothing:

    "The breakthrough came after the government was accused of a cover-up as it emerged that it had justified withholding up-to-date figures on the number of EU migrants in or seeking jobs in Britain because their release would be “unhelpful to the renegotiation process”.
    Figures showed that nearly two million migrants from the EU had been given national insurance cards to work in Britain over the past four years — more than twice the number officially estimated as entering the country."

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4644221.ece

    No wonder our streets, hospitals, schools etc., are crowded and full to bursting.
    The world of my grandchildren and great grandchildren will be very unpleasant indeed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dr_spyn said:

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 20s20 seconds ago
    Douglas Carswell says Ukip should be an "optimistic, smiley, socially liberal, unapologetically free market party". http://polho.me/1lVByzk

    Isn't that Cameron's Conservatives?

    Why defect then?
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    MikeK said:

    Good morning all.

    This is what matters, as it's proven that all governments have sold us out to the EU, the Cameron government lying with aplomb to the British people. This from The Times on Cameron's retreat from nothing:

    "The breakthrough came after the government was accused of a cover-up as it emerged that it had justified withholding up-to-date figures on the number of EU migrants in or seeking jobs in Britain because their release would be “unhelpful to the renegotiation process”.
    Figures showed that nearly two million migrants from the EU had been given national insurance cards to work in Britain over the past four years — more than twice the number officially estimated as entering the country."

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4644221.ece

    No wonder our streets, hospitals, schools etc., are crowded and full to bursting.
    The world of my grandchildren and great grandchildren will be very unpleasant indeed.

    How is that 'unhelpful to renegotiation'? Wouldn't it mean the 'problem' was even bigger, strengthening Cameron's hand?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Wanderer said:

    UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".

    I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.

    That would be their best option I think. To be honest it might be Labour's best option.
    Its perfectly possible to be libertarian and blue collar, if you're a bricklayer you might not be a philosophical deep thinker but you don't want the govt telling you that you can't smoke in your van. Or that you have to file tax returns every 3 months.

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Inequality Friday (a postscript to my pb piece the other day):

    @ONS · 25m25 minutes ago
    Least wealthy 50% of households owned 9% of household wealth in 2012/14
    http://ow.ly/W42Zi

    @ONS · 26m26 minutes ago
    Wealthiest 10% of households owned 45% of household wealth in 2012/14 http://ow.ly/W42Vd

    Is that net wealth?
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Wanderer said:

    UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".

    I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.

    That would be their best option I think. To be honest it might be Labour's best option.
    The Tories are very fortunate that the two biggest opposition parties (by vote share) are ideologically bound from extending their support into their most fertile category.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited 2015 18

    Wanderer said:

    UKIP could become a euro-sceptic Blue Labour, with Nuttall as leader, and focus their efforts in working class seats, targetting disillusioned Labourites as well as "Alf Garnett".

    I think that would be their best strategy to gain support, but I would much prefer them to become full-on Libertarians in the Carswell mould.

    That would be their best option I think. To be honest it might be Labour's best option.
    Its perfectly possible to be libertarian and blue collar, if you're a bricklayer you might not be a philosophical deep thinker but you don't want the govt telling you that you can't smoke in your van. Or that you have to file tax returns every 3 months.

    Why shouldn't they? PAYE employees need their income filing every time they get paid. If you're fortnightly paid that's every fortnight so 26 times a year. If you're monthly paid then it's monthly so 12 HMRC submissions a year.

    Other than an anachronism what is wrong with joining the modern era like every other person?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Welcome to PB, Mr @NorfolkTilIDie - you didn't used to an Albion supporter, did you?

    MikeK said:

    Good morning all.

    This is what matters, as it's proven that all governments have sold us out to the EU, the Cameron government lying with aplomb to the British people. This from The Times on Cameron's retreat from nothing:

    "The breakthrough came after the government was accused of a cover-up as it emerged that it had justified withholding up-to-date figures on the number of EU migrants in or seeking jobs in Britain because their release would be “unhelpful to the renegotiation process”.
    Figures showed that nearly two million migrants from the EU had been given national insurance cards to work in Britain over the past four years — more than twice the number officially estimated as entering the country."

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4644221.ece

    No wonder our streets, hospitals, schools etc., are crowded and full to bursting.
    The world of my grandchildren and great grandchildren will be very unpleasant indeed.

    How is that 'unhelpful to renegotiation'? Wouldn't it mean the 'problem' was even bigger, strengthening Cameron's hand?
This discussion has been closed.