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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest GOP debate changes nothing – the front runners are still Trump, Rubio and Cruz
I didn’t stay up for the latest GOP debate overnight and have yet to watch the entire event. So my comments here are based on the betting markets and what respected US commentators thought.
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Tory co-chairman claimed Obama sent pollster to UK to stop Miliband, book says
Lord Feldman made claim about pollster Jim Messina in election night victory speech, say authors Philip Cowley and Dennis Kavanagh
http://bit.ly/1OvDfdh
Debates are overrated.
O/T: a wistful piece by a Corbyn fan on how difficult it is to discuss him sensibly - though I think it's a particular example of a general media phenomenon:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/15/balanced-debate-jeremy-corbyn-labour-media-attacks
The book argues: “If we assume the polls were as wrong throughout the parliament as they were on election day and adjust the voting intention polling data accordingly, then the polling crossover [ie Conservatives overtaking Labour] occurred sometime around July 2013, with the Conservative lead slowly but steadily increasing after that. Indeed Labour led and probably only narrowly for around 18 months between roughly March 2012 and July 2013.”
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-revenge/
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/677036476161531904
That's why I want him to win, it'll give the hand wringers something else to fret about.
What happens when he drops out? Is the money returned to donors, kept by Bush for next time, or inherited by the party?
According to the new Kavanagh and Cowley book, Obama sent Jim Messina to the Conservatives with the aim of stopping Miliband's Labour.
Why doesn't President Obama just go and JOIN THE TORIES
The effect is that politicians become extremely defensive - the main priority in an interview is to get one line across and not screw up with some comment that can be taken out of context. The victim is the level of public debate, which is seriously awful.
Nothing to do with Labour or their leader.....
Plus of course please don't fall into the trap (even if you are using it as a shorthand) of criticising the public, which is what a criticism of "public debate" of course is doing.
Come on Donald, you can do it, you're a nutter but the couple of days you have as president before Armageddon will be worth it.
From what I have read here, it would seem that Trump is all blather and no substance.. pandering to peoples worst fears. He could be the Daily Mail in human form.
Perhaps the members of the Republican Party are anticipating more fun from the prospect of impeaching Hillary for various misdemeanours than from the prospect of a Trump presidency.
Since the Tories don't run elections like this - I wonder if they'll be another conference speech contest as per 2005 or a TV head to head or a whole new system with more than two final candidates
JeremyCorbyn4PM
This Monday will mark 100 days since JC was elected leader. What was your highlight? Use #jez100 we'll RT our fav https://t.co/k65j18CUnE
But I see that she's been scheduling sex. This is called "doing it wrong".
I scanned @Speedy's comments but didn't pick it up there - anyone else notice this?
You should have seen me last night, I was at it for six straight hours.
I find that quite incredible.
Immigrants: doing jobs normal Americans won't.
As heir to the throne I want Prince Charles to be fully informed so that on succession he will be fully appraised of the affairs of state so that he may be able to properly undertake his constitutional role to advise, counsel and warn the government of the day.
In time both Prince William and Prince George will have a similar role. Historically both the heir to the throne and the spouse of the Monarch have had similar access to state papers.
Reasons to vote OUT #327:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/i-didn-t-think-ttip-could-get-any-scarier-but-then-i-spoke-to-the-eu-official-in-charge-of-it-a6690591.html and then today..
Reasons to vote OUT #328:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12052102/EU-plan-to-deploy-armed-guards-on-borders-against-states-will.html Armed German border guards marching into Greece or Hungary against the will of their governments, what could possibly go wrong ?! The Czech border with Germany might be particularly sensitive!
Having a good leader and good narrative also helped.
Somewhat ridiculously, I had to Google it, and then type in "www.weebly.com/editor/logout.php".
Pisses me off when sites hide things. Blogspot did the same (still no idea how to log out directly, but as it's Google-linked I can just sign out elsewhere and refresh to check it worked).
Republic are just whining, as usual.
Nursie's real name, of course, being Bernard.
Janet T Beckett @carbonsaveruk 2m2 minutes ago
For twitching at the curtains of Overton window for the first time in 30 years #jez100
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1446547/Why-Tory-MP-is-the-father-of-all-Bernards.html
The surprise in this story is that anyone is surprised. Any cursory glance at post Georgian constitutional history would indicate that the present situation is the norm.
Reins*.
It does look like death by a thousand cuts for sane Labour.
The danger, well, one of them, is that, like Miliband, mid-term blues mean Labour do alright in some elections, giving the sheep of Labour an excuse not to defenestrate Corbyn (or even attempt to do so).
The greatest danger, of course, is that Corbyn becomes PM.
Edited extra bit: Mr. W, was mildly surprised the BBC bothered reporting it.
Mr. Eagles, surely he was named after Nursie?
He'd be a hero in his own party and would then win the referendum.
Or am I just fantasising?
For subsequent generations, perhaps including Charles, I'm not so sure.
William - great bloke, it seems, but not unlike millions of other young men and I can see no reason, as heir to the throne (and eventual King), helicopter pilot, occasional boozer, polo player, father, Boujis-frequenter, he should get such access.
Not sure about his counsel or advice, either.
what are they expecting? Charles to take no interest, then find himself flung in at the deep end on his first day in the job, after decades of waiting?
Anyway if you knew what you were talking about LBJ is the only President who came close to using nuclear weapons. A story and President that Trump's consigliere Roger Stone has written extensively on.
Re that piece of OJ's, if you elect someone from beyond the pale they won't be treated as though they were within it. Becoming Leader of the Opposition does usually confer a kind of respectability and stature that makes news coverage more considered (not necessarily less hostile!) I think it's unsurprising that that isn't happening in Corbyn's case.
Meh, I'm struggling to express myself. What I'm trying to say is that Corbyn and his followers have an extreme case of having to fight for the right to be heard.
Whether as monarch Charles's advice and counsel would wise or not is largely irrelevant. As monarch he may give it. The government may also ignore it.
Almost certainly - unless 'Leave' starts registering 20% poll leads perhaps...
#Unemployment rate 5.2% for Aug-Oct 2015, down from 6.0% a year earlier http://ow.ly/VXHkE
@ONS · 20s21 seconds ago
#Employment rate 73.9% for Aug-Oct 2015, highest since records began in 1971 http://ow.ly/VXHyK
Clearly it is wiser to have a monarch who is across the issues of the day and able to offer an informed perspective to the Prime Minister of the day.
Republicans and dullard malcontents will seek any opportunity, however misguided, to chip away at our monarchy. They will fail.
For Aug-Oct 2015 there were 31.30 million people in work and 1.71 million unemployed https://t.co/hVKvwEsd0V https://t.co/t1kDdfOz28
In my mind is a picture, shown in all the media, of William being manhandled into a car after a night out because he is so drunk he can't stand up on his own.
Some years ago the decision was made to demystify, demythify the Royal Family. They can't have their cake and eat it. Either they are a distant presence opining on events within their kingdom, or they are one of us (as they are trying to be now) in which case what's with the private audience with the PM?
Improved life expectancy and better health can mean younger royals taste 'real life', and gradually become more distant ahead of becoming monarch.
As Mr. W indicates, some people will always find something to complain about.
The global labour market is starting to tighten. This movement will have a profound effect. The era of cheap labour may be coming to an end.
Evan Davis: Isn't that a bit creepy?
Coulter: Jeez, have you Brits lost your sense of humour?
Evan Davis: Do you think terms such as r*ghead and sand jockey are helpful to political debate?
Coulter: Jeez, have you Brits lost your sense of humour?
Ouch. #Jez100 https://t.co/3a8yCWIBDP