politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Generally on days like this George Osborne improves his Bet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Generally on days like this George Osborne improves his Betfair “Next PM” chances
Today’s the chancellor’s autumn statement – the second big set piece of Mr. Osborne’s parliamentary year. Usually, the “Omnishambles” budget of 2012 apart, he gets a good initial reaction and the betting markets respond accordingly.
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I will take this opportunity to delurk.
This piece seems like good advice. The commentariat seems to have been stuck in Osborne-is-hopelessly-trapped mode for weeks (perhaps the result of good expectations management behind the scenes). It seems a near certainty that he'll pull some kind of rabbit out of the hat today and, while it may not stand up well in the long term, it will play well for 48 hours.0 -
First post first. Well done and welcome Mr Wanderer!0
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Welcome Wanderer. Yes, it's a bit like a football team - one minute Osborne's a genius the next he's an idiot.0
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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/24/bankers-still-overpaid-says-top-banker-john-cryan-bonuses-deutsche-bank
I should declare an interest. I know and have worked with him and regard him highly. He's right of course. A culture of entitlement exists within highly paid bankers just as much as it does among some on welfare. They are both equally pernicious and need dealing with.
Over to you George.
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On topic, good strategy from Mike. As well as Osborne being close to evens for next PM after the last budget, Boris was also close to Evens in the days after the election. Both laid - for a reasonable sum in the case of the former, and a large sum in the case of the latter.0
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Oh and hello to Mr Wanderer.0
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Greetings Mr Wanderer0
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Shit news to start PMQs0
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Did Tim Yeo have any sort of reputation that it was possible to trash?0
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What was that?Sandpit said:Shit news to start PMQs
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The passing away from cancer of Chris Martin, PPS at No. 10. He was I think aged 42.FrancisUrquhart said:
What was that?Sandpit said:Shit news to start PMQs
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Welcome and you bagged 1st!
*impressed face*Wanderer said:I will take this opportunity to delurk.
This piece seems like good advice. The commentariat seems to have been stuck in Osborne-is-hopelessly-trapped mode for weeks (perhaps the result of good expectations management behind the scenes). It seems a near certainty that he'll pull some kind of rabbit out of the hat today and, while it may not stand up well in the long term, it will play well for 48 hours.0 -
Jezza going on green energy...0
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Has Margaret from Margate requested he asked about it?Plato_Says said:Jezza going on green energy...
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Green issues?
With the ISIS issues and Middle East tension; on the day of the Autumn Statement, he goes with green issues?0 -
Three apprentices - one called Ziggy. Seriously.FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Margaret from Margate requested he asked about it?Plato_Says said:Jezza going on green energy...
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This is so funny:
Kate McCann @KateEMcCann 12m12 minutes ago
John McDonnell has decided he doesn't want to live in Number 11 when he becomes chancellor... ahem: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12015911/John-McDonnell-wouldnt-live-in-Number-11-if-he-was-0 -
Da New Politics, innit?DaemonBarber said:Green issues?
With the ISIS issues and Middle East tension; on the day of the Autumn Statement, he goes with green issues?0 -
This isn't even PMQs on Easy.0
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Corbyn wittering on about solar power communes on Hackney Council Estates. He's a caricature.0
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@DPJHodges: For the first and last time Jeremy Corbyn speaks on behalf of israel.
@JournoStephen: "Prime Minister, I have a question from Ziggy, Occupied Palestine, and Jay." #PMQs0 -
Cameron even quished Jezza on womens refuges.0
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Was he an apprentice guitar player?Plato_Says said:Three apprentices - one called Ziggy. Seriously.
FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Margaret from Margate requested he asked about it?Plato_Says said:Jezza going on green energy...
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PMQs so easy for Cameron. Green energy not exactly the word on everyone's lips at the moment.0
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Occupied Palestine? Brilliant.Scott_P said:
@DPJHodges: For the first and last time Jeremy Corbyn speaks on behalf of israel.
@JournoStephen: "Prime Minister, I have a question from Ziggy, Occupied Palestine, and Jay." #PMQs0 -
Did Corbyn use all 6 or is he popping back?0
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Corbyn - standing up for shareholders' dividends taken from taxes.
Shareholders will receive interest payments on their investment, at approximately 4% per year.
http://www.hackneyenergy.org.uk/banister-house/
The project income will be derived principally from the government’s Feed-in Tariff scheme, and the sale of the energy.0 -
Somebody calling themselves Ziggy, nailed on dreadlocked greeny squatter.0
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On topic - This is sound advice.
But then again I've backed Osbo at around 2.74, and he's drifted.
He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.
Osbo: Buy @ 5-2 or longer
Hold @ 6-4 -> 5-2
Sell @ 5-4 or shorter.0 -
Robertson from the SNP going on Syria. Grown-up questions compared to Corbyn.0
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Dair from Dundee has a question about HMS Ocean and the Carriers.FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Margaret from Margate requested he asked about it?Plato_Says said:Jezza going on green energy...
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I think he's almost certain to be in the final two, unless he decides not to stand. There's also the question of whether he'd be able to influence who was in the final two with him. (Though if it was between May and Boris, who would he see as most dangerous?)Pulpstar said:
He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.
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So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.
Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?
Oops, here comes Hampstead.0 -
@GeneralBoles: are spiders from Mars included in the government's immigration cap?MarqueeMark said:Was he an apprentice guitar player?
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Tulip's question is far too long. Another one who needs brevity training - she lost me.chestnut said:
So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.
Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?
Oops, here comes Hampstead.0 -
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Welcome, Wanderer.0
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are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell tory sleeper agents? Since May its been one big tory wet dream!0
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Given the pathetic nature of PMQs from Corbyn, I can only presume he doesn't care right now. McDonnell is going to be entertaining - assume he's going to at least attempt to put his case today.kjohnw said:
are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell tory sleeper agents? Since May its been one big tory wet dream!
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It appears not. At least, not the dreadlocks:FrancisUrquhart said:Somebody calling themselves Ziggy, nailed on dreadlocked greeny squatter.
https://twitter.com/wwwfoecouk/status/6463988316014510080 -
The way Osborne is trampling over his fellow cabinet members by grabbing all their good news announcements, IMHO Osborne will struggle to get into the final two. How to lose friends and influence people.Wanderer said:
I think he's almost certain to be in the final two, unless he decides not to stand. There's also the question of whether he'd be able to influence who was in the final two with him. (Though if it was between May and Boris, who would he see as most dangerous?)Pulpstar said:
He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.
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Here comes George!0
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Who had 'security' on the bingo?0
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OGH betting strategy very smart. I disagree with one conclusion though. "One thing about Osborne is that he learns from past mistakes. There’ve been no more 2012-type budgets."
Osborne's post GE budget has a number of howlers which have backfired. Tax Credits is one and some of the BTL changes is a hidden one. We will see how much of those mistakes he tackles today.0 -
Tom Harris' 2p http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12015904/Jeremy-Corbyns-shadow-chancellor-is-cosying-up-to-Trots-who-hate-Labour.html
It will be a busy day for the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, in the Commons this afternoon and later in the TV and radio studios.
Except that’s not where McDonnell will be this evening. He won’t be telling wavering voters about his party’s opposition to cuts or trying to persuade them of his personal commitment to balancing the budget while defending public services.
Instead John McDonnell will be sharing a platform with Labour’s opponents – not to debate with them, but to show solidarity with them.0 -
Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?0
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He's got Lloyds pendingSandpit said:
Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?
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Debt or deficit? Even deficit, how the hell is he going to achieve that?Sandpit said:Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?
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Did Corbyn ask a question from "Tim in Suffolk" over Green energy ?0
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Intrigued by PMQs – what exactly was the ‘tulip question’ appertaining to…!
And a hearty welcome to Mr Wanderer.
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Apply for £1000 of that if you haven't already done so imo.Plato_Says said:He's got Lloyds pending
Sandpit said:Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?
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Like Brown did?TCPoliticalBetting said:
The way Osborne is trampling over his fellow cabinet members by grabbing all their good news announcements, IMHO Osborne will struggle to get into the final two. How to lose friends and influence people.Wanderer said:
I think he's almost certain to be in the final two, unless he decides not to stand. There's also the question of whether he'd be able to influence who was in the final two with him. (Though if it was between May and Boris, who would he see as most dangerous?)Pulpstar said:
He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.0 -
Ironically this study almost PROVES there is no weekend effect. Paediatrics and Obstetrics run a fully staffed weekend rota. There is a consultant ward round daily and the same cover as if it were a weekday. The only difference is there are no elective caesarians (the lower risk procedures obviously) or planned clinics. But shop floor labour ward staffing is equivilent, as is SCBU level care.
Also this 250k figure is banded around, but you do realise that actually is the all in cost of training? That is not minused the tuition fees people pay, and includes living costs and lost production costs that are bourne by the individual through the SLC.
Actual to staffing a job cost to taxpayer is at the level of 150k. However this does not reflect work that these people do on wards whilst students. After this each year they work for the NHS they are a net benefit to the taxpayer. You are right in that it would be unfair to other students that don't have any obligations - nursing/OT/physio students pay no fees and get a bursary for living expenses for example.
Figures as of 2012. https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=http://bma.org.uk/-/media/Files/Word%20files/News%20views%20analysis/pressbriefing_cost_of_training_doctors.docxwatford30 said:DecrepitJohnL said:
Have TSE and Antifrank received £250,000 worth of training paid for by the taxpayer?watford30 said:
This thing about medical students needing to repay their training (and the vast majority will work for the NHS in any case) -- does it also apply to other students? Should TSE and Antifrank be required to do a couple of years at the local CAB? Should geography and history graduates have to work as schoolteachers for a stretch?DecrepitJohnL said:
Cull management numbers. Stop staff retiring at 50 on frankly over generous pension terms, and don't rehire those that have left at ridiculous rates. And lock Doctors into working for the training they've received. If they want to bugger off for more cash elsewhere, they should be required to compensate the taxpayer.watford30 said:Alistair said:
We're pouring money in by the bucket load. Even Gordon Brown said they'd had enough.Sandpit said:
A fully staffed 7 day NHS would be lovely.watford30 said:'Envy of the World', but not at weekends.
I do not think you can achieve a fully staffed 7 day NHS on the cheap.
There are plenty of places where the NHS can find cost savings. Decent management could implement them.0 -
"That growth has not been fuelled by an irresponsible banking boom, he says." - from the Guardian.
No, it's been fuelled by an irresponsible housing bubble!0 -
He definitely said debt. I guess the bank bailout cash liability is counted there, along with assets like Lloyds and possibly Railtrack, maybe even some undoing of QE.FrancisUrquhart said:
Debt or deficit? Even deficit, how the hell is he going to achieve that?Sandpit said:Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?
Edit: looks like he is talking about debt/GDP ratio, which strikes me as a bit of a fudge.0 -
Clive Lewis losing his head....0
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Could you make out what he was shouting about?Slackbladder said:Clive Lewis losing his head....
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That is the man the BBC viewed as lacking political knowledge of his own area?Slackbladder said:Clive Lewis losing his head....
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But he claims twas the BBC is racist innit.TCPoliticalBetting said:
That is the man the BBC viewed as lacking political knowledge of his own area?Slackbladder said:Clive Lewis losing his head....
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It was something something female kids, something something mothers being erased, something something I'm pregnant with a daughter, something something.
I've no idea - Cameron gave a non answer that sounded nice, I'm not sure if he understood her either.SimonStClare said:Intrigued by PMQs – what exactly was the ‘tulip question’ appertaining to…!
And a hearty welcome to Mr Wanderer.0 -
Osbourne kills his own tax credits
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Osborne is even worse, since Blair at least did take some credit with the ministers and had people that he promoted and nurtured whereas Cameron seems to leave it all to Osborne.david_herdson said:
Like Brown did?TCPoliticalBetting said:
The way Osborne is trampling over his fellow cabinet members by grabbing all their good news announcements, IMHO Osborne will struggle to get into the final two. How to lose friends and influence people.Wanderer said:
I think he's almost certain to be in the final two, unless he decides not to stand. There's also the question of whether he'd be able to influence who was in the final two with him. (Though if it was between May and Boris, who would he see as most dangerous?)Pulpstar said:
He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.
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BOOOOOOM labours fox shot.0
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I'm not sure he knows...DaemonBarber said:
Could you make out what he was shouting about?Slackbladder said:Clive Lewis losing his head....
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Fill us in.Slackbladder said:BOOOOOOM labours fox shot.
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U turn if you want to...0
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When eating humble pie, it's best to do so early. Still humiliating for George Osborne though.0
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HB capped?0
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Wrong call on tax credits. Pretty much cancels the Budget changes except the disregard which drops to 2,500.0
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A U-Turn is always humiliating, no matter how you dress it upAlastairMeeks said:When eating humble pie, it's best to do so early. Still humiliating for George Osborne though.
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ReallyEvilMuffin said:
Ironically this study almost PROVES there is no weekend effect. Paediatrics and Obstetrics run a fully staffed weekend rota. There is a consultant ward round daily and the same cover as if it were a weekday. The only difference is there are no elective caesarians (the lower risk procedures obviously) or planned clinics. But shop floor labour ward staffing is equivilent, as is SCBU level care.
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Are you sure? What about all the key support staff in the areas of tests, scans etc and monitoring? Also what about the time to get through A&E for women admitted and assessed?0 -
Brown introduced tax credits ?Slackbladder said:Osbourne kills his own tax credits
How is Osborne killing "his own" ?0 -
I disagree with George. I think we should (slowly) wean ourselves off tax credits whilst there is political cover to do so. So I still think there should be some cuts to it.
A bigger budget surplus helps with shocks and to pay down our debt.0 -
Where is IDS's "celebration"?0
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Digital tax accounts by 2020, good luck with that project!0
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I didn't really catch it - here's the DT
"This improvement in the nation's finances allows the Chancellor to do the following:
- Eliminate the deficit further
- We will spend £12bn more on capital investments
- The improved public finances allow us to reach the same goal as a surplus in the early years. That means we can help on tax credits."
Tax credits are being phased out anyway so we can roll out universal credit, adds MR Osborne.Pulpstar said:
Brown introduced tax credits ?Slackbladder said:Osbourne kills his own tax credits
How is Osborne killing "his own" ?0 -
@PCollinsTimes: He could get away with taking all the tax credit money and spending it himself, on cigars. https://t.co/m14CQkPbG50
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He should certainly be cutting tax credits. There's lots of popular mileage with above average size families.0
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A tax credit U-turn. Whoever would have thought it? Nothing to do with Labour, of course, and everything to do with GO's ambitions to succeed Dave.0
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Yes, but it looks like a big fat u-turn, which burns political capital without the cash gain from the policy.TGOHF said:
Its just delayed - universal credit will kill it eventually anyway.Sandpit said:Wrong call on tax credits. Pretty much cancels the Budget changes except the disregard which drops to 2,500.
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So the Lords are hugely undemocratic and against the will of the people but we are totally doing what they say anyways?0
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Who's on George's left in the Chamber?0
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Pretty clear Osbourne never intended to carry the tax credit cut through. Master tactician0
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Not if he wants to succeed Dave. That's what the U-turn is all about.Scott_P said:@PCollinsTimes: He could get away with taking all the tax credit money and spending it himself, on cigars. https://t.co/m14CQkPbG5
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OBGYN perform their own ultrasound scans in urgent cases or get the radiologist to do so. Truly emergency CT scans are easier to get on the weekend as there are not routine lists although obstetric CTs are very infrequent. Without routine bloods coming through from GP surgeries there is little difference between result times at the weekend, and it is easier to phone the chap there if you want something ASAP. But obstetrics does not really rely on many of these modalities for baby outcomes - it is all on the CTG which is constantly outputting. If you are waiting for xyz then you have waited too long.
A/E is bypassed and things move straight to labour ward for deliveries if they feel labour is oncoming.TCPoliticalBetting said:ReallyEvilMuffin said:Ironically this study almost PROVES there is no weekend effect. Paediatrics and Obstetrics run a fully staffed weekend rota. There is a consultant ward round daily and the same cover as if it were a weekday. The only difference is there are no elective caesarians (the lower risk procedures obviously) or planned clinics. But shop floor labour ward staffing is equivilent, as is SCBU level care.
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Are you sure? What about all the key support staff in the areas of tests, scans etc and monitoring? Also what about the time to get through A&E for women admitted and assessed?0 -
Greg HandsPlato_Says said:Who's on George's left in the Chamber?
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I wondered what that was about.
This from our sketch writer Michael Deacon:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/autumn-statement/12014530/Autumn-Statement-2015-live.html#update-20151125-1247
John McDonnell, Labour's shadow chancellor, said he would "throw up" if George Osborne used the phrase "fixing the roof while the sun in shining". Osborne has duly, and rather gleefully, put this to the test. It's probably for the best that Mr McDonnell reneged on his promise. Tory MPs point at him and laugh.0 -
''Not if he wants to succeed Dave. That's what the U-turn is all about.''
George Osborne will never lead the conservative party.0 -
Labour colleague.
You can see as Osborne as a Prime Minister in a way that you can't see Corbyn as PM, and I think Osborne is a fecking massive tw@0 -
It's a hell of a master tactician that allows himself to be the story, allows himself to be held hostage to fortune (unpredictably) and sews doubt amongst his own MPs about his own leadership competence in doing so.Gravitation said:Pretty clear Osbourne never intended to carry the tax credit cut through. Master tactician
I don't understand those who think all of this was some huge triple-bluff by Osborne.
Why would he bother?
I think he thought Labour's disarray gave him all the political cover he needed and he cocked up.0 -
2% social care tax capability for councils.0
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She's my MP. What did she ask about?Plato_Says said:Tulip's question is far too long. Another one who needs brevity training - she lost me.
chestnut said:So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.
Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?
Oops, here comes Hampstead.0 -
See my response upthread - I'm not entirely sure.Cyclefree said:
She's my MP. What did she ask about?Plato_Says said:Tulip's question is far too long. Another one who needs brevity training - she lost me.
chestnut said:So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.
Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?
Oops, here comes Hampstead.0
