politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has the best satisfaction ratings of any leader in t

Blimey.

Con 41
Lab 34

How many seats would that leave Labour?

Phew, that's all right then. All going swimmingly for Labour.

I see Corbyn is more popular (37%) than Labour (34%).
Labour seems to be weighted down by it's MP's not by it's Leader (approaching troll levels now).

How do these numbers square with the odds for Oldham??

Totally baffling

I find it hard to believe that enough people know anything about Tim Farron for the poll to find any sort of meaningful public opinion about his performance.

Why is Corbyn only "acting leader of the Labour party" ?

MarkHopkins said:

Why is Corbyn only "acting leader of the Labour party" ?

He's simply a great actor - or sleeper agent LOL

@PickardJE: Sadiq Khan in dig at Corbyn: "There is nothing I disagree with in the way Emwazi (Jihadi John) was taken out: I live in the real world".

Jonathan said:

3) Don't give the remotest hint of a toss*

*it's four years from an election and who is the Tim Farron guy anyway.

The Lib Dems have barely been in the news since the general election. Never mind what Farron has been doing, what fraction of the public even knows that he is the leader? I couldn't tell you how he has been doing as the Labour leadership election and its consequences have totally dominated press coverage.

Does anyone know what Farron has been up to?

These are very odd findings. Support for the Conservatives surges, even as approval for Cameron and the government drops.

At the same time, Corbyn's ratings are pretty decent, in contrast to the findings of every other polling company.

It looks like an outlier all round.

SimonStClare said:

We appear to be heading back to two party politics.

‘Farron ahead of Cameron’ – ah bless…

Isn't everyone doing better than Cameron according to that poll? Now I cannot stomach Cameron at any price, but I cannot believe those figures are meaningful either.

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PickardJE: Sadiq Khan in dig at Corbyn: "There is nothing I disagree with in the way Emwazi (Jihadi John) was taken out: I live in the real world".

His gag about Sajid Javid was good: "you wait ages for an immigrant son of a bus driver and then two come along at once."

I note no drift on Khan for Mayor since the Paris attacks - a sign of our tolerance or a sleepy market?

No one gives a poop. Look at the lack of riots or violence following the grooming scandals.

I said a while back speaking to a Kipper in South Yorkshire, most voters think it is only a small minority of Muslims.

Speedy said:

To compare with opposition leaders on MORI, Hague peaked on 29, IDS on 27, Howard 30, Cameron 53, Miliband 41.
Going further back Blair 53, Smith 40, Kinnock 45, Foot 29.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2437&view=wide

Corbyn's peak so far is 37, he's no Foot, Hague, IDS or Howard, but more of a Miliband-Smith-Kinnock level.

What are the peaks among their own supports though?

HurstLlama said:

SimonStClare said:

We appear to be heading back to two party politics.

‘Farron ahead of Cameron’ – ah bless…

Isn't everyone doing better than Cameron according to that poll? Now I cannot stomach Cameron at any price, but I cannot believe those figures are meaningful either.

Most non-Tories disapprove of Cameron (and the question asks about him as PM, not as party leader). For the others, there are lots of don't knows (esp. Farron) and also surely some percentage of people saying "he's doing fine leading his party in the wrong direction".

@DPJHodges: John McDonnell's excuse is he didn't bother to read the statement he signed calling for abolition of MI5. Well that's OK then...

@DPJHodges: "Chancellor, do you need to see this Budget thing?". "Nah. Just put my signature on it and bung it out there."....

Ipsos Mori have fixed their typo.

The power of PB

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Speedy said:

To compare with opposition leaders on MORI, Hague peaked on 29, IDS on 27, Howard 30, Cameron 53, Miliband 41.
Going further back Blair 53, Smith 40, Kinnock 45, Foot 29.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2437&view=wide

Corbyn's peak so far is 37, he's no Foot, Hague, IDS or Howard, but more of a Miliband-Smith-Kinnock level.

What are the peaks among their own supports though?

I don't know, I'll have a look to see if I can find it.
But on today's one among their own party it's:

Cameron 80/18
Corbyn 65/18
Farage 91/9
Farron: 57/30

There are as many dissatisfied with Cameron inside the Tory party as Labour is with Corbyn, but we haven't head of any rumblings in the Tory party much less about Tim Farron and the LD.
The problem for Labour is that in the 18% who are dissatisfied with Corbyn are it's MP's, the MP's are weighting down Labour with their constant moaning about the leadership election result.

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: John McDonnell's excuse is he didn't bother to read the statement he signed calling for abolition of MI5. Well that's OK then...

@DPJHodges: "Chancellor, do you need to see this Budget thing?". "Nah. Just put my signature on it and bung it out there."....

The statement that has been on the loony-left website for 6 months, and that he was pictured holding to the camera.

In any case, there are plenty more such skeletons in the McDonnell cupboard. Voters will gradually notice, but it will take some time for the full effect to show.

Ye olde advice after ye mega polling cockup at G Election

Ye should not believe ye polls.. ye polls are untested.

Tories to beat the Lib Dems in Oldham is looking a sound enough bet off the back of this.

I'm going to the Citeh v Liverpool match.

@SkyNewsBreak: The Premier League has announced that the French national anthem 'La Marseillaise' will be played ahead of all matches this weekend

Corbyn most popular.

Cameron least popular

LMFAO

Stick that in Simon Danczuks pipe!!

Entertaining poll after the OMG stuff on yesterday's thread. I expect the truth is somewhere in between, as usual, but as I've been saying for some weeks, we Corbynites have not heard him say anything we dislike so far, though putting it across outside the ranks of existing supporters is a learning curve...

Meanwhile, wry cartoon in the middlebrow German mag Cicero, called "The limits of military strategy":

http://www.cicero.de/karikaturen/die-grenzen-der-militaerstrategie

"They're launching air attacks against the CENTRE of IS terrorism". "Against BELGIUM?"

Like all good cartoons, it makes a useful point. Even if ISIS is utterly defeated in Syria and Iraq, there will still be a global problem.

bigjohnowls said:

Corbyn most popular.

Cameron least popular

LMFAO

Stick that in Simon Danczuks pipe!!

Have you ever heard of the expression EICIPM ?

Just wondering.

Tissue_Price said:

Speedy said:

The problem for Labour is that in the 18% who are dissatisfied with Corbyn are it's MP's, they the MP's are weighting down Labour with their constant moaning about the leadership election result.

Have no fear: Corbyn has a long-term plan to get rid of Labour MPs.

Hmmm.

Long Term Tragicomic Plan.

I'll get my coat.

NickPalmer said:

Entertaining poll after the OMG stuff on yesterday's thread. I expect the truth is somewhere in between, as usual, but as I've been saying for some weeks, we Corbynites have not heard him say anything we dislike so far, though putting it across outside the ranks of existing supporters is a learning curve...

Meanwhile, wry cartoon in the middlebrow German mag Cicero, called "The limits of military strategy":

http://www.cicero.de/karikaturen/die-grenzen-der-militaerstrategie

"They're launching air attacks against the CENTRE of IS terrorism". "Against BELGIUM?"

Like all good cartoons, it makes a useful point. Even if ISIS is utterly defeated in Syria and Iraq, there will still be a global problem.

Naziism didn't die when Berlin was taken Nick.

But it helped.

A bunch of interesting polls in the US:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Carson fading and Rubio and Cruz moving up in both NH and nationally. Trump still well ahead - of the two front-runners, he's the one with the staying power. Everyone else absolutely nowhere. I've taken a small bet on Betfair on Rubio for President at 5.4 - seems better odds than the 2.36 available for nominee, as if he's the nominee there will be a period where he's odds on an I can lay off. Cruz at 8 for nominee looks possibly interesting - he's probably just one good debate performance away from a strong position.

Hillary drops marginally behind in NH but still massively ahead overall.

So this is what the honeymoon looks like.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: John McDonnell's excuse is he didn't bother to read the statement he signed calling for abolition of MI5. Well that's OK then...

@DPJHodges: "Chancellor, do you need to see this Budget thing?". "Nah. Just put my signature on it and bung it out there."....

The statement that has been on the loony-left website for 6 months, and that he was pictured holding to the camera.

In any case, there are plenty more such skeletons in the McDonnell cupboard. Voters will gradually notice, but it will take some time for the full effect to show.

The fact that polls are showing Lab more or less around where they were in May shows that voters may not gradually notice.

All this John McDonnell/signature stuff, John Woodcock, Diane Abbott, oh and of course Jezza himself - each episode absolutely incendiary, and also critical to giving some idea of what a Lab govt might look like...and yet onwards the Lab voting public goes, marking their name against Lab in polls.

I am none too sure when it will actually filter through, if ever. I mean that will still leave Lab on a solid 25-30% but it should be 15-20%.

MarkHopkins said:

bigjohnowls said:

Corbyn most popular.

Cameron least popular

LMFAO

Stick that in Simon Danczuks pipe!!

Have you ever heard of the expression EICIPM ?

Just wondering.

Is it EICIPM PB Tories are always right?

Does it mean Even If Corbyn Is PM PB Tories are always right

Bob__Sykes said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm going to the Citeh v Liverpool match.

@SkyNewsBreak: The Premier League has announced that the French national anthem 'La Marseillaise' will be played ahead of all matches this weekend

What happened on Tuesday was appropriate, fitting and actually quite special.

This decision is plain barmy.

And moreover, I don't think the fans will get behind this 100% either.

The problem is it gives ammunition to those who think we only care about these things when they happen in Europe/Australia/America.

Who are the contenders for Democrat VP slot btw ?

chestnut said:

From last month's Ipsos - Corbyn's Satisfaction Rating v Labour Vote Intention

Age...... Sat......VI
18-24... 60......58
25-34... 54......37
35-44... 48......34
45-54... 23......25
55-64... 28......25
65-74....18......31
74+.......12.......16

Region... Sat......VI
North.... 36......44
Mids...... 37......34
South..... 40......30
London.. 49.......44
Scotland. 24......12

Popular with the young, but once they leave university they'll vote otherwise, and popular in London.

He gets some 'sympathy' satisfaction from other parties' left wing vote.

The low level of satisfaction in the North of England may be a pointer towards stay-at-home's.

Corbyn's numbers in Scotland are quite.... amazing.

HUYFD really called it when he claimed Corbyn would solve all Labour's problems in Scotland.

@Southamobserver I'll put you down as a 'maybe'.

AlastairMeeks said:

So this is what the honeymoon looks like.

@robfordmancs: Politics of opportunity cost 1: in day when 97% of doctors vote no confidence in a Tory health secretary, Lab talking about abolishing MI5

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

Entertaining poll after the OMG stuff on yesterday's thread. I expect the truth is somewhere in between, as usual, but as I've been saying for some weeks, we Corbynites have not heard him say anything we dislike so far, though putting it across outside the ranks of existing supporters is a learning curve...

Meanwhile, wry cartoon in the middlebrow German mag Cicero, called "The limits of military strategy":

http://www.cicero.de/karikaturen/die-grenzen-der-militaerstrategie

"They're launching air attacks against the CENTRE of IS terrorism". "Against BELGIUM?"

Like all good cartoons, it makes a useful point. Even if ISIS is utterly defeated in Syria and Iraq, there will still be a global problem.

Yep - Nick voted for someone who hangs out with apologists for terrorism and calls them his friends, and that is exactly what Nick got. Nick is not interested in Labour ever being in power again. He is happy for the Tories to do the governing stuff. It's good for Nick he has got what he wants. But maybe less good for the people that Labour used to care about.

How do you explain him being the most popular leader despite constant sniping from MPs like Danczuk and former supporters like yourself.

Why are Lab polling more than at GE 2015 despite people like yourself and DH changing their horse?

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So this is what the honeymoon looks like.

@robfordmancs: Politics of opportunity cost 1: in day when 97% of doctors vote no confidence in a Tory health secretary, Lab talking about abolishing MI5

Except they aren't

@SebastianEPayne: Exclusive polling from @JamesDMorris: 67% have no idea what Jeremy Corbyn is saying https://t.co/IymLvveuPp https://t.co/YI3eMWbEtn

Incidentally, has anyone checked out whether the other signatories of McDonnell's loony-left parallel manifesto are involved in the Corbyn 'mass movement'?

Richard_Nabavi said:

bigjohnowls said:

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So this is what the honeymoon looks like.

@robfordmancs: Politics of opportunity cost 1: in day when 97% of doctors vote no confidence in a Tory health secretary, Lab talking about abolishing MI5

Except they aren't

You are right, they are talking about how the phrase "Disband MI5 and special police squads, disarm the police" doesn't mean "Disband MI5 and special police squads, disarm the police".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xIlOJBPa1Q

bigjohnowls said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@SebastianEPayne: Exclusive polling from @JamesDMorris: 67% have no idea what Jeremy Corbyn is saying https://t.co/IymLvveuPp https://t.co/YI3eMWbEtn

It is better to be incoherently the most popular leader like Jezza or Coherent but least popular like Dave

There was a time when Ed was a lot more popular on the leader ratings front than Dave was.

Just saying

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

Entertaining poll after the OMG stuff on yesterday's thread. I expect the truth is somewhere in between, as usual, but as I've been saying for some weeks, we Corbynites have not heard him say anything we dislike so far, though putting it across outside the ranks of existing supporters is a learning curve...

Meanwhile, wry cartoon in the middlebrow German mag Cicero, called "The limits of military strategy":

http://www.cicero.de/karikaturen/die-grenzen-der-militaerstrategie

"They're launching air attacks against the CENTRE of IS terrorism". "Against BELGIUM?"

Like all good cartoons, it makes a useful point. Even if ISIS is utterly defeated in Syria and Iraq, there will still be a global problem.

Yep - Nick voted for someone who hangs out with apologists for terrorism and calls them his friends, and that is exactly what Nick got. Nick is not interested in Labour ever being in power again. He is happy for the Tories to do the governing stuff. It's good for Nick he has got what he wants. But maybe less good for the people that Labour used to care about.

How do you explain him being the most popular leader despite constant sniping from MPs like Danczuk and former supporters like yourself.

Why are Lab polling more than at GE 2015 despite people like yourself and DH changing their horse?

I think anyone looking at opinion polls and not real polls is deluding him/herself after the polling fiasco in May. I knew they were wrong then. I know this one is wrong now.

Richard_Nabavi said:

bigjohnowls said:

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So this is what the honeymoon looks like.

@robfordmancs: Politics of opportunity cost 1: in day when 97% of doctors vote no confidence in a Tory health secretary, Lab talking about abolishing MI5

Except they aren't

You are right, they are talking about how the phrase "Disband MI5 and special police squads, disarm the police" doesn't mean "Disband MI5 and special police squads, disarm the police".

No they aren't.

Since the overwhelming vote of confidence in Jezza in MORI

And the overwhelming vote of no confidence by Doctos in the other Jezza

I can understand you wishing it were so

TheScreamingEagles said:

@SebastianEPayne: Exclusive polling from @JamesDMorris: 67% have no idea what Jeremy Corbyn is saying https://t.co/IymLvveuPp https://t.co/YI3eMWbEtn

Does that 67% include Jeremy?

TOPPING said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkHopkins said:

Why is Corbyn only "acting leader of the Labour party" ?

I think they've used the same diagram from when Hattie was in charge.

The hazards of copy and paste...

Indeed. Is one of immutable laws of blogging, you can never spot your own typos but you can spot everyone else's typos very easily.

And rephrasings / edits.

Wrong. All those things are easy to spot in your own posts.

6:00:01 minutes after you first post your comment.

You are sadly and rather irritatingly correct. Irritating in the sense of how I feel whem I have to correct nearly all my posts.

FPT: In response to @Chris A, who responded to my comment below

"They certainly need a reality check. A sense of professionalism too, if they want to be thought of as professionals. And a recognition that their salaries are paid for by others' taxes. Others who earn less, have less job security, have endured far more hardship than doctors and who depend on them."

With this -

"Ah yes the usual pb commentator who cannot stand the fact that there are some things which the state should do and therefore pay people to do it. It matters not a fig where the salary comes from if the government is committed to doing dangerous things they have a duty to speak up. "

I haven't seen you around much but for your information the reasons I have a problem - a big problem - with what the doctors are proposing are these:-

1. When there was the last doctor's strike, operations were postponed. My father was one of those patients whose operation was postponed and by the time he had it the cancer was inoperable and he died from a cancer which, even then, he could have survived. My father was a doctor and would never have done to patients what was done to him. And he never did so in a career that spanned 40 years, encompassing WW2 and where he was paid far less than doctors now and paid far more tax. He suffered, his family suffered and I miss him to this day. I think it unconscionable that doctors now should seek to take the risk of inflicting something similar on people today and still claim the moral high ground.

2. There is no reason why the state should do health or all of it. Very few countries in the world have a system like ours. Doctors are very keen on the NHS but are not prepared to accept the restraints that such a system inevitably puts on patients - via rationing (or queues, as they are known) - or on salaries. They want to have market salaries in a state run system.

3. I have been having a series of tests over the last few weeks in relation to various issues, one of which may be cancer. I do not want to be in a position where any treatment I need is delayed because doctors are more bothered about their pay than about their duties to their patients. I should not need to spell out why I feel concerned.

0_o

I worry my daughters will be groomed by ISIS and lured to Syria, warns Labour's London Mayor candidate Sadiq Khan

More must be done to prevent children accessing extremist material online
Admits he grew up with people who went on to 'act' on terrible views
Warns British Muslims have a 'special role' to 'root out' extremists
Distances himself from Corbyn's warning about police shooting terrorists
Insists British Muslim women and girls should be free not to wear the veil


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3325538/I-worry-daughters-groomed-ISIS-lured-Syria-warns-Labour-s-candidate-London-Mayor-Sadiq-Khan.html#ixzz3rxGh5Rcl
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Barnesian said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Con 41
Lab 34

How many seats would that leave Labour?

Putting these figures into Electoral Calculus

Con 336
Lab 232
LD 5
UKIP 0
Green 1

Tory majority of 22

SNP ?
Labour on 232 after 4 years of Corbyn would be a massive result for 'Momentum'. We would of course have to start a new charity for hard up deselected Labour MPs.