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OBR predicted 0.2% growth for this quarter....
Nice change for them to actually have to revise higher for once! Implications for deficit reduction?0 -
Growth is up... and it's pretty well balanced too!0
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Thanks for the laugh!!tim said:Growth just over half what it was in Q2 2010 when Osborne started
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That does depend on how you calculate APR. If a bank charges £10 for going overdrawn without permission (not unreasonable given admin charged), then being 1p overdrawn for 1 day would generate an equivalent APR with a huge dragon's tail of naughts (if rounded). Labour-intensive, low-value, rapid-repayment loans will produce high APR's.antifrank said:Payday lenders are evil. They should be outlawed. They are not providing a service that we should allow to continue - those who currently rely upon them should be helped to manage their finances better. It cannot be in their interests to pay APRs of 4000+%.
Rather than banning them (which as with all prohibition will lead to the illegal market picking up the slack), they need better regulation - particularly in terms of capping charges and of rollover rates.
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Police Scotland has concluded that there is "insufficient" evidence to launch a criminal investigation in Falkirk selection. "Following a comprehensive review of all material submitted, Police Scotland has concluded there are insufficient grounds to support a criminal investigation at this time. However, should further information come to light this will be looked into."0
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Idiotic comment. You think that GDP was growing at an annual rate of near 5% through 2010?tim said:Growth just over half what it was in Q2 2010 when Osborne started
Or did Gordon Brown borrow every cent and sou in the months leading up to the election to give a one quarter false impression of growth?
Note: questions are rhetorical.
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Poor tim, he's had days to prepare the killer sound bite, and that's the best he could do.
PbTories: Be compassionate: that's what we are.0 -
From your list I met Brig van Orden last year; very interesting chap. Also sat next to David Campbell Bannerman at dinner (your defector). Not quite so interesting conversation-wise but in his defence he was being monopolised by an elderly lady who'd taken rather a shine to him and nobody was playing nice and rescuing him.AndreaParma_82 said:Vicky Ford
Van Something
the UKIP to Con defector
Sturdy
Howitt
Duff
A Kipper
I could pick both of them out in the street again, I think, but as someone who frequents PB.com I'm not exactly Joe Voter.
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Mainly correct - Richard III not II and not James II 1488. I don't want to be too obtuse so killed in battle includes military action in sieges and as a result of wounds in battle.SimonStClare said:"Since AD1000 who of our monarchs have been killed in battle ?"
If by ‘our’ you mean Scottish & English, rather than just British,then:
Kennith II (Scotland) 1005
Duncan I (Scotland) 1040
Macbeth Scotland) 1057
Harold (England) 1066
William I (England) 1078
Malcolm III (Scotland) 1093
Richard the Lion Heart (England) 1199
James II (Scotland) 1460
Richard II (England) 1485
James II (Scotland) 1488
James IV (Scotland) 1513.
Kenneth II - 1005 Battle of Monzievaird
Duncan I - 1040 Battle of Bothganowan
Macbeth - 1057 Battle of Lumphanan
William the Conqueror 1087 Siege of Mantes
Malcolm III - 1093 Battle of Alnick
Richard I - 1199 Siege of Chalos Chabrol
James II - 1460 Siege of Roxburgh
James III - 1488 Battle of Sauchieburn
James IV - 1513 Battle of Flodden
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No growth = Bad for Tories
Growth = Bad for Tories
Heads I win, tails you lose!
Ian Birrell@ianbirrell
Tories should not get too excited by return to economic growth. Could mean voters feel they can afford to let Labour run the country again0 -
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Remember when it was all Labour moaning about Not Real Jobs, or being part-time? Still they aren't back to the peak so its all a failure...
Jobs, hours worked now back at 2008 levels
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BQAbu03CEAAtjf3.jpg:large0 -
No reason not to publish the report then ?AndreaParma_82 said:Police Scotland has concluded that there is "insufficient" evidence to launch a criminal investigation in Falkirk selection. "Following a comprehensive review of all material submitted, Police Scotland has concluded there are insufficient grounds to support a criminal investigation at this time. However, should further information come to light this will be looked into."
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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article3824672.eceScott_P said:This is, of course, Brilliant news for the SNP...
Alex Salmond has been left embarrassed after a government document branding fossil fuels “damaging and price-volatile” was leaked the day after he began a charm offensive aimed at North Sea oil firms.
The paper shows that privately ministers are worried about the shifting price of oil, despite publicly making optimistic claims and accusing the UK Government of “fibbing” about projections.
The timing is particularly awkward for the SNP Government. On Tuesday, the First Minister launched an oil and gas strategy in which he lavished praise on the industry and said he had no plans to put their taxes up in an independent Scotland. “The sector in Scotland will continue to thrive for decades to come,” he said. “We will provide optimum conditions for the oil and gas industry to innovate and thrive in a globally-competitive environment.”
But the paper leaked yesterday states: “The transition to renewable energy reduces our dependence on damaging, price-volatile fossil fuels.” Opposition politicians said the paper showed the private concerns of ministers about relying on oil revenues. The First Minister accused them of “talking Scotland down”.
It is the second time a paper has leaked from the Scottish Government — and both have apparently come from the department of John Swinney, the Finance Secretary.
If you read it Scott you will see it is, they are very clearly and intelligently stating that we would not depend only on oil or fossil fuels long term. Only an idiot would think otherwise and the dumb unionists have been squealing for months about how the SNP should not base independence only on oil, surprise surprise the SNP agree and have no long term p[lans to base their fiscal policy only on oil. DOH.0 -
About time. But it's good news. Let's hope that it is sustained and that it begins to make a material difference to the lives of ordinary people in this country. It's been very difficult.BenM said:Growth is up... and it's pretty well balanced too!
As ever Toby Young provides the Tories with a useful reminder of the approach not to take. It's not about Ed Balls or statistics Tobes, it's about personal experience, hopes, fears, living standards and all the rest of it. GDP does rise more often than not. But it is meaningless if it makes little difference to people's lives.
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On topic they should have polled on how people would have voted under various electoral systems such as AV.
What we need is more discussions on electoral voting systems.0 -
Monarchs killed in battle quiz. Excellent so far.
Only one more to find !!0 -
That picture points to a massive, massive fall in productivity.Plato said:Remember when it was all Labour moaning about Not Real Jobs, or being part-time? Still they aren't back to the peak so its all a failure...
Jobs, hours worked now back at 2008 levels
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BQAbu03CEAAtjf3.jpg:large0 -
Not a battle per se, but William II got shot by an archer whilst hunting in the New Forest.
He died under what some say are slightly suspicious circumstances, and his death led indirectly to the Anarchy that is a popular part of history at the moment. The Rufus Stone is situated just off the A27 at the spot he reputedly fell.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_II_of_England0 -
If you read it Scott you will see it is, they are very clearly and intelligently stating that we would not depend only on oil or fossil fuels long term. Only an idiot would think otherwise and the dumb unionists have been squealing for months about how the SNP should not base independence only on oil, surprise surprise the SNP agree and have no long term p[lans to base their fiscal policy only on oil. DOH.malcolmg said:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article3824672.eceScott_P said:This is, of course, Brilliant news for the SNP...
Alex Salmond has been left embarrassed after a government document branding fossil fuels “damaging and price-volatile” was leaked the day after he began a charm offensive aimed at North Sea oil firms.
The paper shows that privately ministers are worried about the shifting price of oil, despite publicly making optimistic claims and accusing the UK Government of “fibbing” about projections.
The timing is particularly awkward for the SNP Government. On Tuesday, the First Minister launched an oil and gas strategy in which he lavished praise on the industry and said he had no plans to put their taxes up in an independent Scotland. “The sector in Scotland will continue to thrive for decades to come,” he said. “We will provide optimum conditions for the oil and gas industry to innovate and thrive in a globally-competitive environment.”
But the paper leaked yesterday states: “The transition to renewable energy reduces our dependence on damaging, price-volatile fossil fuels.” Opposition politicians said the paper showed the private concerns of ministers about relying on oil revenues. The First Minister accused them of “talking Scotland down”.
It is the second time a paper has leaked from the Scottish Government — and both have apparently come from the department of John Swinney, the Finance Secretary.
Vote Yes and SNP and you'll be £ 300,000 better off. Guaranteed by Honest Eck.
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Not while the people complicit in the last failure are still at the top. It took well over a decade for the Winter of Discontent to stop afflicting Labour, and a similar time for the Tories to get over the ERM fiasco.Scrapheap_as_was said:No growth = Bad for Tories
Growth = Bad for Tories
Heads I win, tails you lose!
Ian Birrell@ianbirrell
Tories should not get too excited by return to economic growth. Could mean voters feel they can afford to let Labour run the country again0 -
SouthamObserver said:
About time. But it's good news. Let's hope that it is sustained and that it begins to make a material difference to the lives of ordinary people in this country. It's been very difficult.BenM said:Growth is up... and it's pretty well balanced too!
As ever Toby Young provides the Tories with a useful reminder of the approach not to take. It's not about Ed Balls or statistics Tobes, it's about personal experience, hopes, fears, living standards and all the rest of it. GDP does rise more often than not. But it is meaningless if it makes little difference to people's lives.
Very true but in terms of that intangible 'confidence' and peoples expectations for the economy as shown in polls, it must help?
It may just stop Balls and his flat-lining salute and surely puts him in a weaker position now? Odds on him being moved would seem to be more likely now don't you think?0 -
Edmund Ironside, I think?JackW said:Monarchs killed in battle quiz. Excellent so far.
Only one more to find !!0 -
You're stretching my compassion but that's balanced by the humour quotient.tim said:@JohnO
After three wasted failed years its good to see Osborne finally get some growth that wasn't inherited from Labour or Olympics driven
You can be very silly at times and this is one of those occasions. Go away for a few hours and let's see how you do by evening (though I'll be absent knocking-up for the critical Weybridge South by-election!)0 -
BenM and SouthamObserver make reasoned comments that welcome the growth figures whilst adding some thoughtful caveats...
... a lesson for others who cannot see beyond their obsessions0 -
There's a fair chance that Richard thought of France as 'home'.SimonStClare said:
I’m fairly sure Richard thought of it as a battle – I guess the definition of a ‘battle’, ie, defending the Country at home - as opposed to a jolly somewhere abroad, or military action per se, is open to question.Morris_Dancer said:Does the Lionheart count?
He was shot and killed by an archer whilst laying siege to a castle in France, I think.
That's definitely military action, but not a battle.
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Calls for Plan B blah blah have been scuppered as well.
Labour need to get their running shoes on, if the economy really is picking up on a sustained level, bitching isn't going to cut any ice with voters who already hold Balls & Co largely responsible for the Crash.
Lots of businesses seem to be just ticking up/regaining confidence/starting to spend on marketing and training again. Those are very good signs that they feel its safe to do so/anticipating demand.Scrapheap_as_was said:SouthamObserver said:
About time. But it's good news. Let's hope that it is sustained and that it begins to make a material difference to the lives of ordinary people in this country. It's been very difficult.BenM said:Growth is up... and it's pretty well balanced too!
As ever Toby Young provides the Tories with a useful reminder of the approach not to take. It's not about Ed Balls or statistics Tobes, it's about personal experience, hopes, fears, living standards and all the rest of it. GDP does rise more often than not. But it is meaningless if it makes little difference to people's lives.
Very true but in terms of that intangible 'confidence' and peoples expectations for the economy as shown in polls, it must help?
It may just stop Balls and his flat-lining salute and surely puts him in a weaker position now? Odds on him being moved would seem to be more likely now don't you think?0 -
There's a more than fair chance that Richard thought France belonged to England.Theuniondivvie said:
There's a fair chance that Richard thought of France as 'home'.SimonStClare said:
I’m fairly sure Richard thought of it as a battle – I guess the definition of a ‘battle’, ie, defending the Country at home - as opposed to a jolly somewhere abroad, or military action per se, is open to question.Morris_Dancer said:Does the Lionheart count?
He was shot and killed by an archer whilst laying siege to a castle in France, I think.
That's definitely military action, but not a battle.
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The OBR predicted 0.6% growth for the entire calendar year of 2013. It has been matched in Q2 alone. With Q1 included their March EFO annual growth forecast has been exceeded by 50% half way through the year.Scrapheap_as_was said:OBR predicted 0.2% growth for this quarter....
Nice change for them to actually have to revise higher for once! Implications for deficit reduction?
Now think boys and girls what the real growth outturns will do to Chote's 'flat-lining' deficit reduction figures. We shall have to wait 'til September before we can amuse ourselves, but it will sure be a big belly laugh when the revised figures are published.0 -
I've been analysing the YouGov trends and of some other pollsters.
I wonder this reducing Labour lead which is largely coming from the Tory share of the vote increasing and the Labour share of the vote falling slightly is because of gay marriage no longer being an issue.
Though gay marriage will be back next year when the first gay marriages happen.0 -
Edmund fought his successor Cnut a few times in 1016 but secured a peace and died late in that year but not from a battle related cause.david_herdson said:
Edmund Ironside, I think?JackW said:Monarchs killed in battle quiz. Excellent so far.
Only one more to find !!
Still one to go.
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I think the bigger picture is that the UK is rightly pushing to reduce the public sector and boost the private sector. The meme of ‘borrow and spend’ has failed and now we have a new meme of ‘spending cuts work and don’t damage services’. Marry that to e.g. corporation tax cuts and we start to see the very badly needed rebalancing of our economy getting started.
We need to boost investment activity, especially those which will help with the balance of payments. Tax cuts to accelerate shale gas are a perfect example. We also need to push for more supply side reform. We also need to see how we can balance WHERE the growth is coming (and shale in the NW would be a good example).
At some point soon we would reasonably expect tax receipts to start improving and deficits reducing – while shrinking the public sector. Excellent!
So…Osborne is being proved broadly right and Balls broadly wrong. Also of huge political significance is how different this is from the moribund Eurozone.
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@SOSouthamObserver said:
About time. But it's good news. Let's hope that it is sustained and that it begins to make a material difference to the lives of ordinary people in this country. It's been very difficult.BenM said:Growth is up... and it's pretty well balanced too!
As ever Toby Young provides the Tories with a useful reminder of the approach not to take. It's not about Ed Balls or statistics Tobes, it's about personal experience, hopes, fears, living standards and all the rest of it. GDP does rise more often than not. But it is meaningless if it makes little difference to people's lives.
Glad to hear you are busy as well - still just an anecdote!!. Last night elder son who runs 3 foundations companies for one of the largest global civil engineering groups, said that their UK prefabricated foundations factory has been working 24/7 since February and now has a lead time of 3 months for new business.0 -
The number of people switching from Con to Ukip hasn't changed much has it?TheScreamingEagles said:I've been analysing the YouGov trends and of some other pollsters.
I wonder this reducing Labour lead which is largely coming from the Tory share of the vote increasing and the Labour share of the vote falling slightly is because of gay marriage no longer being an issue.
Though gay marriage will be back next year when the first gay marriages happen.0 -
The games in Parliament will continue. Too often over the last three years Osborne and Balls have given the impression their main aim is to get one over the other instead of focusing on what is best for the ordinary voter. It's all a bit JCR, but what else would you expect from people who have never really worked outside the Westminster bubble.Scrapheap_as_was said:SouthamObserver said:
About time. But it's good news. Let's hope that it is sustained and that it begins to make a material difference to the lives of ordinary people in this country. It's been very difficult.BenM said:Growth is up... and it's pretty well balanced too!
As ever Toby Young provides the Tories with a useful reminder of the approach not to take. It's not about Ed Balls or statistics Tobes, it's about personal experience, hopes, fears, living standards and all the rest of it. GDP does rise more often than not. But it is meaningless if it makes little difference to people's lives.
Very true but in terms of that intangible 'confidence' and peoples expectations for the economy as shown in polls, it must help?
It may just stop Balls and his flat-lining salute and surely puts him in a weaker position now? Odds on him being moved would seem to be more likely now don't you think?
We can argue over whether growth should have come quicker, or whether it could be higher, but the fact is that it now seems to have arrived at a sustainable, if relatively low, level. That is good news. But for it to mean anything it has to make a positive difference to people's lives. That is Osborne's task now. Let's see if he is up to it.
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UKIP are down slightly.Millsy said:
The number of people switching from Con to Ukip hasn't changed much has it?TheScreamingEagles said:I've been analysing the YouGov trends and of some other pollsters.
I wonder this reducing Labour lead which is largely coming from the Tory share of the vote increasing and the Labour share of the vote falling slightly is because of gay marriage no longer being an issue.
Though gay marriage will be back next year when the first gay marriages happen.
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@Patrick
"we have a new meme of ‘spending cuts work and don’t damage services"
Whilst this is a complete revelation to BBC Stephanie Flanders who felt the need to blog this earlier in the week - most of us know that spending included a lot of fat. When she's compelled to note that local councils have reduced spending by up to 25% and no one has really noticed, that speaks volumes.0 -
Good news on the GDP.
Let's hope it lasts. Let's hope businesses start to thrive and loads of job vacancies open up. let's hope people start getting back in to work, not just in the South East but all over the country.
Whoever is in charge, it'd be nice to live in a thriving economy. One in which we don't have to worry too much about the future for our kids.0 -
Luckily for Ed there's no PMQ's today .... but what might have been :
"Will the Prime Minister utterly condemn the actions of a certain widely travelled Conservative Councillor in getting electors up the duff in the Weybridge South by-election ?"
Titters ....0 -
We do almost no busness in the UK, unfortunately. But we are seeing real growth in our key US and Asian markets. We are also beginning to look again at (northern) Europe. Early days still, but it's looking good.Financier said:
@SOSouthamObserver said:
About time. But it's good news. Let's hope that it is sustained and that it begins to make a material difference to the lives of ordinary people in this country. It's been very difficult.BenM said:Growth is up... and it's pretty well balanced too!
As ever Toby Young provides the Tories with a useful reminder of the approach not to take. It's not about Ed Balls or statistics Tobes, it's about personal experience, hopes, fears, living standards and all the rest of it. GDP does rise more often than not. But it is meaningless if it makes little difference to people's lives.
Glad to hear you are busy as well - still just an anecdote!!. Last night elder son who runs 3 foundations companies for one of the largest global civil engineering groups, said that their UK prefabricated foundations factory has been working 24/7 since February and now has a lead time of 3 months for new business.
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2.6% annualised growth for the quarter. Not bad at all. I wonder if the Trasury will be tempted to switch to the US ystem of annualised figures. After all 2.6% sounds better than 0.6%. Mind you any drops would sound worse too...0
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And that both belonged to the Plantagenets, though he would have expressed it in French since he didn't speak English.MonikerDiCanio said:
There's a more than fair chance that Richard thought France belonged to England.
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LOL! You might be on to something there...Jonathan said:Whereas, in general, MEP candidates are unknown to the point they may as well be on a witness protection programme.
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What about Scotland ?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic they should have polled on how people would have voted under various electoral systems such as AV.
What we need is more discussions on electoral voting systems.0 -
Battle dead monarchs quiz - One left :
Clue - Dangerous business being an 11th Century Scottish king !!0 -
Well, here it is.
Ed Balls @edballsmp
In UK, while millionaires have been given a huge tax cut, for everyone else life is getting harder - prices rising much faster than wages
and
CCHQ Press Office @RicHolden
In Apr2012 @edballsmp claimed there would be "Lost decade for economy". Labour's argument now totally collapsing: guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/…
Tory Treasury @ToryTreasury
Ed Balls during 2013 Q2 itself: the Gov's plan "has choked off recovery in my view" (BBC News, 22 May 2013).0 -
@SOSouthamObserver said:
We do almost no busness in the UK, unfortunately. But we are seeing real growth in our key US and Asian markets. We are also beginning to look again at (northern) Europe. Early days still, but it's looking good.Financier said:
@SOSouthamObserver said:
About time. But it's good news. Let's hope that it is sustained and that it begins to make a material difference to the lives of ordinary people in this country. It's been very difficult.BenM said:Growth is up... and it's pretty well balanced too!
As ever Toby Young provides the Tories with a useful reminder of the approach not to take. It's not about Ed Balls or statistics Tobes, it's about personal experience, hopes, fears, living standards and all the rest of it. GDP does rise more often than not. But it is meaningless if it makes little difference to people's lives.
Glad to hear you are busy as well - still just an anecdote!!. Last night elder son who runs 3 foundations companies for one of the largest global civil engineering groups, said that their UK prefabricated foundations factory has been working 24/7 since February and now has a lead time of 3 months for new business.
Company I am working with at the moment (mainly energy and large industry) has a rush of business from Africa, Asia, Middle East and Eastern Europe. Younger son, who is in FMCG, has major new business from the US and Australia.
In general the EU areas are quiet and have heard from Germany that they are losing projects on price.0 -
I gave you a thread on Scotland on SundayPulpstar said:
What about Scotland ?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic they should have polled on how people would have voted under various electoral systems such as AV.
What we need is more discussions on electoral voting systems.
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The New Forest was a very dangerous place for the Norman royalty. It was where his brother Richard died in 1081, and his illegitimate nephew (also Richard) later died in the Forest too.JosiasJessop said:Not a battle per se, but William II got shot by an archer whilst hunting in the New Forest.
He died under what some say are slightly suspicious circumstances, and his death led indirectly to the Anarchy that is a popular part of history at the moment. The Rufus Stone is situated just off the A27 at the spot he reputedly fell.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_II_of_England0 -
On topic. I would be staggered if the Lib Dems had 10+ MEPs after the 2014 elections. More likely to be under 5.0
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And battle dead Scottish kings this morning. What more could be asked ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
I gave you a thread on Scotland on SundayPulpstar said:
What about Scotland ?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic they should have polled on how people would have voted under various electoral systems such as AV.
What we need is more discussions on electoral voting systems.
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The Prime Minister (Rt Hon David Cameron): Mr Speaker, far from condemning this outstanding public servant whose record of achievement... Interruption.JackW said:Luckily for Ed there's no PMQ's today .... but what might have been :
"Will the Prime Minister utterly condemn the actions of a certain widely travelled Conservative Councillor in getting electors up the duff in the Weybridge South by-election ?"
Titters ....
The Speaker: ORRRRDERRR, Mr. Rees-Mogg, you're not at Eton now, listen to your nanny and wise UP, man. Prime Minister
The Prime Minister: ....whose record of achievement is without parallel or precedent since the dawn of time. Far from condemning him, I announce to the House that Her Majesty the Queen has this day graciously conferred conferred a life barony on this most esteemed of public servants
Hon Members: Hear, Hear, Hear, Hear, Hear
---
See Dave, it's that easy.0 -
I imagine tails are up at CCHQ today
http://cdn1.arkive.org/media/12/12AC0668-EB6F-4EFC-9B14-930EB818D011/Presentation.Large/white-nosed-coati-troop-walking-with-tails-up-in-air.jpg0 -
Re YouGov, here's what the average YouGov polls show for the May, June and July
Con, 29.76, 31.00, 32.28
Labour 39.24, 39.05, 38.94
LD 10.00, 10.15, 10.17
UKIP, 14.33, 13.10, 11.83
Lab lead, 9.48, 8.05, 6.670 -
In January, the average YouGov poll was
Con 32.41 (higher than July)
Lab 42.64
LD 10.59
UKIP 8.73
Average Labour lead 10.23
Which means changes since Jan to now
Con minus 0.13
Labour minus 3.69
LD minus 0.42
UKIP plus 3.11
Average Labour lead minus 3.560 -
So Kippers are returning home?TheScreamingEagles said:Re YouGov, here's what the average YouGov polls show for the May, June and July
Con, 29.76, 31.00, 32.28
Labour 39.24, 39.05, 38.94
LD 10.00, 10.15, 10.17
UKIP, 14.33, 13.10, 11.83
Lab lead, 9.48, 8.05, 6.670 -
Oi! There are Welsh posters on PB too you know -SimonStClare said:"Since AD1000 who of our monarchs have been killed in battle ?"
If by ‘our’ you mean Scottish & English, rather than just British,then:
Llywelyn the Last, 12820 -
"Oi! There are Welsh posters on PB too you know"
Llywelyn the Last, 1282
Mae'n ddrwg Mr Random
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" .... and further Mr Speaker I should advise the House that Her Majesty has also agreed that the mentor of the new Lord Hersham should be offered a life viscountcy as Viscount Matlock of Beaconsfield."JohnO said:
The Prime Minister (Rt Hon David Cameron): Mr Speaker, far from condemning this outstanding public servant whose record of achievement... Interruption.JackW said:Luckily for Ed there's no PMQ's today .... but what might have been :
"Will the Prime Minister utterly condemn the actions of a certain widely travelled Conservative Councillor in getting electors up the duff in the Weybridge South by-election ?"
Titters ....
The Speaker: ORRRRDERRR, Mr. Rees-Mogg, you're not at Eton now, listen to your nanny and wise UP, man. Prime Minister
The Prime Minister: ....whose record of achievement is without parallel or precedent since the dawn of time. Far from condemning him, I announce to the House that Her Majesty the Queen has this day graciously conferred conferred a life barony on this most esteemed of public servants
Hon Members: Hear, Hear, Hear, Hear, Hear
---
See Dave, it's that easy.
Hon Members : "God save the Queen"
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PatrickPatrick said:
At some point soon we would reasonably expect tax receipts to start improving and deficits reducing – while shrinking the public sector. Excellent!
This is already happening albeit on a smallish scale. In the last OBR commentary on the June public finances bulletin, government receipts were up 12.7% cumulative this fiscal year over last compared to expenditure rising 4.6%.
There are major phasing shifts in both receipts and expenditure when the two years are compared (for example transfers to local governments are front loaded in 2013 and backloaded in 2012), so it is difficult, at this stage, to estimate the effect rising tax receipts will have on year end deficits.
July is a key month for government revenues, so next month is probably the first time a realistic year end estimate can be made. The signs look good at the moment but we need to see more annual volume through the measuring gates.
One problem which most large corporate execs will recognise is that expenditure seems to be rising above budget as the revenues pour in. Some of this will be the costs of success (volume linked costs) but some may also be pressure relieving on cost control.
Danny Alexander must make a special effort to patrol the corridors of Whitehall with a large stick as the mandarins begin to relax.
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Mae'n ddrwg Mr RandomSimonStClare said:"Oi! There are Welsh posters on PB too you know"
Llywelyn the Last, 1282
Croeso:-)
Hywel ap Owain Gwynedd, 1170
Trahaern ap Caradog, 1086
Bleddyn ap Cynfyn, 1075
Grufydd ap Llywelyn, 1063 (killed by his own men, probably didn't go quietly)
Aeddan ap Blegywryd, 1018
Pretty much takes care of the House of Gwynedd. Powys and Deheubarth could probably add a few more...0 -
Labour lead dropping at a rate of more than one percentage point a month... 22 months to go...TheScreamingEagles said:Re YouGov, here's what the average YouGov polls show for the May, June and July
...
Lab lead, 9.48, 8.05, 6.67
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Dropping faster even than Stephanie Flanders's estimates?RichardNabavi said:
Labour lead dropping at a rate of more than one percent a month... 22 months to go...TheScreamingEagles said:Re YouGov, here's what the average YouGov polls show for the May, June and July
...
Lab lead, 9.48, 8.05, 6.67
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I see Nick Robinson's blog is now citing the CBI saying GDP doesn't matter after all. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23442330
Well one wouldn't suspect that given all the hype the BBC have given it when it wasn't a positive number.
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This years six nations matches weren't competed.Random said:
The final round of games never took place.
Yes I am in denial over that shellacking you gave England.
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I can assure you it happened. I was there!TheScreamingEagles said:
This years six nations matches weren't competed.Random said:
The final round of games never took place.
Yes I am in denial over that shellacking you gave England.0 -
For carping posters via LabourList http://labourlist.org/2013/07/labour-should-be-congratulating-osborne-today-not-attacking-him/
"...Yet there will be some who will try to spin today’s promising GDP figures as “bad news for Labour”, but that’s only the case if the Labour leadership walks into the trap of grumbling about Osborne’s manifest and repeated failures (which are a matter of record) rather than welcoming this rare success. Unfortunately, the appears to be exactly what the party is doing so far, by focussing on Osborne’s failures it looks like we’re talking down the economy and denying some undeniably good news.
In fact, what Ed Balls and Labour’s Treasury team should be doing today is congratulating the Chancellor on this promising growth spurt – and urging him to repeat this level of growth (and build on it) in each and every quarter between now and the election. Doing so has three distinct benefits:
It creates a high bar for the Chancellor to cross: ...The economy may have started crawling towards recovery, but the British economy is still a mess. Balls should be saying “well done, now do it again I dare you”, not “Oh, I see you’ve managed some growth, about bloody time”, because…
The public don’t like it: The vast majority of the public don’t follow the economy day in and day out. But what they do know, after decades of politicians saying it, is that growth is good. If Ed Balls comes on TV and says “Yes, but…” all they see is an opposition politician trying to talk down what appears to be a “good thing”. Only by welcoming the growth warmly and acknowledging that this is good news does Labour get listened to enough to make the case that we could grow the economy better than the Tories.
Growth is good for the next Labour government: Despite all of the party’s debates about governing with less money around, when push comes to shove, Labour will always want to spend more money, if possible, than the Tories...
However if Labour falls into the trap of repeatedly attacking Osborne, then don’t be surprised if the Chancellor starts throwing “Jobs and growth” back in our faces. Because he can now credibly say that he has delivered both jobs and growth – and I’m not sure we have a good enough answer to that riposte yet.0 -
Final answer to battle dead kings ....
Duncan II - 1094 Battle of Monthechin
The last of the five Scottish kings to perish in battle that century.
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With last night's Yougov of C 35, Lab 39, LD 8, UKIP 11 and a Lab lead of +4, we now have 2 of the last 3 Yougov polls showing Lab's lead down to a few points as well as and the last ICM showing a 0 lead. It is now starting to look like a shift has happened.0
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Falkirk police decision now means Lab report can be published, GDP numbers good for UK not so much for Lab economic team, Yougov polls suggesting Lab lead dissolving.
Where is Dan Hodges when you need him to confirm Ed is crap and more importantly what he should be doing about the above, but won't.0 -
I just loved the frankness of this bit:Plato said:For carping posters via LabourList http://labourlist.org/2013/07/labour-should-be-congratulating-osborne-today-not-attacking-him/
"...Yet there will be some who will try to spin today’s promising GDP figures as “bad news for Labour”, but that’s only the case if the Labour leadership walks into the trap of grumbling about Osborne’s manifest and repeated failures (which are a matter of record) rather than welcoming this rare success. Unfortunately, the appears to be exactly what the party is doing so far, by focussing on Osborne’s failures it looks like we’re talking down the economy and denying some undeniably good news.
Growth is good for the next Labour government: Despite all of the party’s debates about governing with less money around, when push comes to shove, Labour will always want to spend more money, if possible, than the Tories...
However if Labour falls into the trap of repeatedly attacking Osborne, then don’t be surprised if the Chancellor starts throwing “Jobs and growth” back in our faces. Because he can now credibly say that he has delivered both jobs and growth – and I’m not sure we have a good enough answer to that riposte yet.
Labour will always want to spend more money, if possible, than the Tories...
says it all really, no thought as to whether that's the right thing to do or not. Just spend. Morons.0 -
Betfair
NOM - 2.34-2.42
Lab Maj - 2.78 - 2.98
2/1 Lab maj coming soon..0 -
The slide in Labour's lead is pretty clearly a trend over the last few months - there is no one single story or meme pushing this AFAIC.TCPoliticalBetting said:With last night's Yougov of C 35, Lab 39, LD 8, UKIP 11 and a Lab lead of +4, we now have 2 of the last 3 Yougov polls showing Lab's lead down to a few points as well as and the last ICM showing a 0 lead. It is now starting to look like a shift has happened.
A thread on this would be great.0 -
We'll need a few more polls but it is possible the Labour lead may indeed be slipping a further notch from 6-7% to around 5% or so. Will today's figures and narrative have any impact? Not sure about reliability of August polling, so maybe it won't be until mid September that we get a more accurate picture of what's going on.TCPoliticalBetting said:With last night's Yougov of C 35, Lab 39, LD 8, UKIP 11 and a Lab lead of +4, we now have 2 of the last 3 Yougov polls showing Lab's lead down to a few points as well as and the last ICM showing a 0 lead. It is now starting to look like a shift has happened.
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The irony of this 'recovery' seems to be lost on a lot of pb Tories. The government spends 3 years relying on the market to sort itself out. Not much happens so George tries a bit of Keynesian intervention in the housing market. The economy starts to recover somewhat and anti-Keynesian Tories think it's some kind of ideological victory! Nevermind that from a long term perspective the intervention is in completely the wrong sector at least they've finally learned that government intervention in the economy is sometimes necessary.
Alas, if only they'd realised that in 2010 and intervened in more promising sectors.0 -
norman smith @BBCNormanS 16m
Unite call on Labour to lift #falkirk suspension of Unite backed candidate Karie Murphy after police decide not to prosecute
Non-story....0 -
Must watch or tape this afternoon ....
Channel 4 - Carry On Up the Khyber - "time for tiffin"
LOL.0 -
Jack W,
You've reminded me that the 500th anniversary of the Battle of Flodden will be in a few weeks time. A much bigger engagement than the muddy squabble in the Bannock burn which will be celebrated next year.
We should have a Bank Holiday to celebrate.0 -
Alanbrooke said:
I just loved the frankness of this bit:Plato said:For carping posters via LabourList http://labourlist.org/2013/07/labour-should-be-congratulating-osborne-today-not-attacking-him/
"...Yet there will be some who will try to spin today’s promising GDP figures as “bad news for Labour”, but that’s only the case if the Labour leadership walks into the trap of grumbling about Osborne’s manifest and repeated failures (which are a matter of record) rather than welcoming this rare success. Unfortunately, the appears to be exactly what the party is doing so far, by focussing on Osborne’s failures it looks like we’re talking down the economy and denying some undeniably good news.
Growth is good for the next Labour government: Despite all of the party’s debates about governing with less money around, when push comes to shove, Labour will always want to spend more money, if possible, than the Tories...
However if Labour falls into the trap of repeatedly attacking Osborne, then don’t be surprised if the Chancellor starts throwing “Jobs and growth” back in our faces. Because he can now credibly say that he has delivered both jobs and growth – and I’m not sure we have a good enough answer to that riposte yet.
Labour will always want to spend more money, if possible, than the Tories...
says it all really, no thought as to whether that's the right thing to do or not. Just spend. Morons.
Even phrasing it as 'always want to deliver higher quality public services that the Tories', would have been better.
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Strange times Mr Booth. It's as mad as the arses who ran round screaming cuts cuts all the time when there weren't any and who have now boxed themselves in since the current high levels of borrowing won't support significant extra spending. I guess there will have to be real cuts after all.FrankBooth said:The irony of this 'recovery' seems to be lost on a lot of pb Tories. The government spends 3 years relying on the market to sort itself out. Not much happens so George tries a bit of Keynesian intervention in the housing market. The economy starts to recover somewhat and anti-Keynesian Tories think it's some kind of ideological victory! Nevermind that from a long term perspective the intervention is in completely the wrong sector at least they've finally learned that government intervention in the economy is sometimes necessary.
Alas, if only they'd realised that in 2010 and intervened in more promising sectors.0 -
That made me smile too - I read it twice just to make sure I wasn't imaging itAlanbrooke said:
I just loved the frankness of this bit:Plato said:For carping posters via LabourList http://labourlist.org/2013/07/labour-should-be-congratulating-osborne-today-not-attacking-him/
"...Yet there will be some who will try to spin today’s promising GDP figures as “bad news for Labour”, but that’s only the case if the Labour leadership walks into the trap of grumbling about Osborne’s manifest and repeated failures (which are a matter of record) rather than welcoming this rare success. Unfortunately, the appears to be exactly what the party is doing so far, by focussing on Osborne’s failures it looks like we’re talking down the economy and denying some undeniably good news.
Growth is good for the next Labour government: Despite all of the party’s debates about governing with less money around, when push comes to shove, Labour will always want to spend more money, if possible, than the Tories...
However if Labour falls into the trap of repeatedly attacking Osborne, then don’t be surprised if the Chancellor starts throwing “Jobs and growth” back in our faces. Because he can now credibly say that he has delivered both jobs and growth – and I’m not sure we have a good enough answer to that riposte yet.
Labour will always want to spend more money, if possible, than the Tories...
says it all really, no thought as to whether that's the right thing to do or not. Just spend. Morons.0 -
Great choice of photo by the Spectator:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/good-gdp-figures-heap-pressure-on-ed-balls-as-tories-relax/
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hmm why have I got an image of Andy Burnham when you say that ?JonathanD said:Alanbrooke said:
I just loved the frankness of this bit:Plato said:For carping posters via LabourList http://labourlist.org/2013/07/labour-should-be-congratulating-osborne-today-not-attacking-him/
"...Yet there will be some who will try to spin today’s promising GDP figures as “bad news for Labour”, but that’s only the case if the Labour leadership walks into the trap of grumbling about Osborne’s manifest and repeated failures (which are a matter of record) rather than welcoming this rare success. Unfortunately, the appears to be exactly what the party is doing so far, by focussing on Osborne’s failures it looks like we’re talking down the economy and denying some undeniably good news.
However if Labour falls into the trap of repeatedly attacking Osborne, then don’t be surprised if the Chancellor starts throwing “Jobs and growth” back in our faces. Because he can now credibly say that he has delivered both jobs and growth – and I’m not sure we have a good enough answer to that riposte yet.
Labour will always want to spend more money, if possible, than the Tories...
says it all really, no thought as to whether that's the right thing to do or not. Just spend. Morons.
Even phrasing it as 'always want to deliver higher quality public services that the Tories', would have been better.0 -
desperate party resorts to desperate measures, anything but have a policy.tim said:Emergency question in the Lords on an ongoing A&E crisis.
All that stuff about ministerial responsibilty and Jeremy Chum has let this one happen.
I know, let's pilot 111 numbers and when the pilots fail well roll them out anyway0 -
Bugger off !!CD13 said:Jack W,
You've reminded me that the 500th anniversary of the Battle of Flodden will be in a few weeks time. A much bigger engagement than the muddy squabble in the Bannock burn which will be celebrated next year.
We should have a Bank Holiday to celebrate.
Sobs ....
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...................................................................SeanT said:Crucially, the whole world - maybe even Euroland - is now, apparently, recuperating, or continuing the growth that never stopped. America is looking mildly perky. Ditto, GB. China is still posting a healthy 7.5% per year expansion.
Africa is almost booming. Japan is, for the first time in years, a source of optimism.
The entire global economy may now have a sufficient head of steam to pull us all out of this dreadful half decade, begun under Labour. And oodles of cheap energy, from shales, will only help.
Reasons to be cheerful, part 3.0
So "Ponceyboot's" Coalition not doing too badly then ?
Ozzie and Ginger Rule OK
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is everyone wilfully misunderstanding where we were economically in 2010? We should have spent on this, "invested" in that (ha!).FrankBooth said:The irony of this 'recovery' seems to be lost on a lot of pb Tories. The government spends 3 years relying on the market to sort itself out. Not much happens so George tries a bit of Keynesian intervention in the housing market. The economy starts to recover somewhat and anti-Keynesian Tories think it's some kind of ideological victory! Nevermind that from a long term perspective the intervention is in completely the wrong sector at least they've finally learned that government intervention in the economy is sometimes necessary.
Alas, if only they'd realised that in 2010 and intervened in more promising sectors.
Had we not made clear our intentions then to clamp down on spending, reduce the deficit, pay down debt, the market would have said "fine - we'll need 7% for that please".
The Govt needed some time to establish credibility in the market and it worked.
Now they can pick some key sectors. Should housing be one of them? Perhaps, perhaps not.
But to say they should have jumped in with their size 10 boots on day one 2010 with, say, an infrastructure spending programme is to open oneself up to charges of political and economic naivety.
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CoE/Welby's plan to compete with Wonga.com is interesting. The church has alot of cash swishing around, although obviously alot of this is tied up in old churches with high maintenance costs and so forth. Using his experience of business though Welby might just be the man to take on this challenge he has set himself.
He's met Tatchel and now the head of Wonga. Although he disagrees with them both he is certainly open to frank and forthright debate on controversial topics.
Good on him.0
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