The irony of this 'recovery' seems to be lost on a lot of pb Tories. The government spends 3 years relying on the market to sort itself out. Not much happens so George tries a bit of Keynesian intervention in the housing market. The economy starts to recover somewhat and anti-Keynesian Tories think it's some kind of ideological victory! Nevermind that from a long term perspective the intervention is in completely the wrong sector at least they've finally learned that government intervention in the economy is sometimes necessary.
Alas, if only they'd realised that in 2010 and intervened in more promising sectors.
I see Frank has fallen into the New Statesman trap of labelling any government or central bank action or intervention as being Keynesian... on that definition, the Austrian school of economists would be arch-Keynesians
The irony of this 'recovery' seems to be lost on a lot of pb Tories. The government spends 3 years relying on the market to sort itself out. Not much happens so George tries a bit of Keynesian intervention in the housing market. The economy starts to recover somewhat and anti-Keynesian Tories think it's some kind of ideological victory! Nevermind that from a long term perspective the intervention is in completely the wrong sector at least they've finally learned that government intervention in the economy is sometimes necessary.
Alas, if only they'd realised that in 2010 and intervened in more promising sectors.
is everyone wilfully misunderstanding where we were economically in 2010? We should have spent on this, "invested" in that (ha!).
Had we not made clear our intentions then to clamp down on spending, reduce the deficit, pay down debt, the market would have said "fine - we'll need 7% for that please".
The Govt needed some time to establish credibility in the market and it worked.
Now they can pick some key sectors. Should housing be one of them? Perhaps, perhaps not.
But to say they should have jumped in with their size 10 boots on day one 2010 with, say, an infrastructure spending programme is to open oneself up to charges of political and economic naivety.
I suspect GO could have got away with borrowing a few billion to fund infrastructure a year or so ago and the markets wouldn't have batted an eye-lid.
2. All sectors of the economy contributed to the increase in GDP growth in Q2 2013.
3. This growth is being achieved at a time of fiscal consolidation. Government borrowing is being reduced and spending cut in real terms.
4. The interventions in the housing and mortgage markets, most of which are yet to be implemented, have had minimal effect on Q2 growth. The only sector which may have benefitted is construction output where residential house building volumes are responding to stimulus.
Although the arrest of house price depreciation; the rise in mortgage approvals (but not net mortgage lending) and increase in house sales volume; and reversing of construction output falls have all contributed to higher consumer confidence levels, their immediate impact on economic growth is very small.
One impact of house prices rising which is often overlooked is the negative impact it can have on general consumer demand. First time house purchasers tend to save up for the mortgage loan deposit and therefore reduce consumption. Usually, this fall in consumption by first time purchasers is compensated for by long term house owners releasing equity in their houses to facilitate increased consumption.
At present, only first time purchases of new builds are receiving significant government stimulus and remortgaging and equity release finance is severely constrained in supply. The likely impact of current government interventions on the economy would be to depress consumption and increase savings ratios and residential property investment. Or put more simply, to reduce GDP growth.
But whilst we are here, the impact of house price rises on consumption should be noted. Osborne needs to stimulate both ends of the chain to balance the impact of housing market interventions on the economy.
Both you and tim should note this is why further stimulus from the beginning of next year is being introduced. Remortgaging finance and support for a wider range of house buyers is necessary to avoid sole support for first time buyers negatively effecting overall consumption and growth in the economy.
What is abundantly clear on PB and Twitter is that Labour doesn't have anything to say - literally.
This can't have been a total surprise, yet there is no messaging for the troops to parrot that passes muster. There are old arguments and cliches but nothing to address the fact that the tide seems to have turned.
The irony of this 'recovery' seems to be lost on a lot of pb Tories. The government spends 3 years relying on the market to sort itself out. Not much happens so George tries a bit of Keynesian intervention in the housing market. The economy starts to recover somewhat and anti-Keynesian Tories think it's some kind of ideological victory! Nevermind that from a long term perspective the intervention is in completely the wrong sector at least they've finally learned that government intervention in the economy is sometimes necessary.
Alas, if only they'd realised that in 2010 and intervened in more promising sectors.
I see Frank has fallen into the New Statesman trap of labelling any government or central bank action or intervention as being Keynesian... on that definition, the Austrian school of economists would be arch-Keynesians
Osborne spent more than Labour and borrowed £245 billion more than he forecast
tim, I think you'll find it's conventional to use the quote facility only when you are responding to a comment...
Another company that failed to heed the advance of technology.
"Lenders have taken control of Yellow Pages owner Hibu in a restructuring deal that will leave nothing for shareholders but aims to save jobs.
The deal cuts £800m of the company's £2.3bn debts, which were largely run up via foreign acquisitions during the last decade's credit bubble.
The phone books and digital services firm, which rebranded itself from Yell last year, has 12,000 employees.
Lenders will take ownership of the firm and slow the repayment of its debts.
The creditors include George Soros' hedge fund, US private equity group Blackstone and the major European investment bank Deutsche Bank.
The deal has been given the nod by a co-ordination group of lenders representing just under 40% of the company's debts, but still needs formal approval from at least 75% of creditors.
It is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Hibu's fall from grace came after it expanded too rapidly during the last decade - including the 3.3bn-euro purchase of a Spanish directories business in 2006 - only to see its business model of listing local small businesses undermined by more generic online search engines such as Google."
2. All sectors of the economy contributed to the increase in GDP growth in Q2 2013.
3. This growth is being achieved at a time of fiscal consolidation. Government borrowing is being reduced and spending cut in real terms.
But whilst we are here, the impact of house price rises on consumption should be noted. Osborne needs to stimulate both ends of the chain to balance the impact of housing market interventions on the economy.
Both you and tim should note this is why further stimulus from the beginning of next year is being introduced. Remortgaging finance and support for a wider range of house buyers is necessary to avoid sole support for first time buyers negatively effecting overall consumption and growth in the economy.
So you're saying it's a non-government assisted recovery with a housing bubble in the pipeline and a deterioration in the balance of payments from too much consumer spending ? I can see where you're coming from Avery.
The irony of this 'recovery' seems to be lost on a lot of pb Tories. The government spends 3 years relying on the market to sort itself out. Not much happens so George tries a bit of Keynesian intervention in the housing market. The economy starts to recover somewhat and anti-Keynesian Tories think it's some kind of ideological victory! Nevermind that from a long term perspective the intervention is in completely the wrong sector at least they've finally learned that government intervention in the economy is sometimes necessary.
Alas, if only they'd realised that in 2010 and intervened in more promising sectors.
is everyone wilfully misunderstanding where we were economically in 2010? We should have spent on this, "invested" in that (ha!).
Had we not made clear our intentions then to clamp down on spending, reduce the deficit, pay down debt, the market would have said "fine - we'll need 7% for that please".
The Govt needed some time to establish credibility in the market and it worked.
Now they can pick some key sectors. Should housing be one of them? Perhaps, perhaps not.
But to say they should have jumped in with their size 10 boots on day one 2010 with, say, an infrastructure spending programme is to open oneself up to charges of political and economic naivety.
I suspect GO could have got away with borrowing a few billion to fund infrastructure a year or so ago and the markets wouldn't have batted an eye-lid.
I don't disagree but the lefty fantasy of starting a huge spending programme in May 2010 is just that - fantasy. Or rather, naivety and an "it won't happen to us" delusion about how interest rates are set.
re. tim - I don't think the markets are pricing in a rate rise (to say nothing of the more explicit pronouncements of Bernanke & Carney) until 2016.
Another company that failed to heed the advance of technology.
"Lenders have taken control of Yellow Pages owner Hibu in a restructuring deal that will leave nothing for shareholders but aims to save jobs.
The deal cuts £800m of the company's £2.3bn debts, which were largely run up via foreign acquisitions during the last decade's credit bubble.
The phone books and digital services firm, which rebranded itself from Yell last year, has 12,000 employees.
Lenders will take ownership of the firm and slow the repayment of its debts.
The creditors include George Soros' hedge fund, US private equity group Blackstone and the major European investment bank Deutsche Bank.
The deal has been given the nod by a co-ordination group of lenders representing just under 40% of the company's debts, but still needs formal approval from at least 75% of creditors.
It is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Hibu's fall from grace came after it expanded too rapidly during the last decade - including the 3.3bn-euro purchase of a Spanish directories business in 2006 - only to see its business model of listing local small businesses undermined by more generic online search engines such as Google."
Not really, a lot of their business is online. Their main problem was overexpanding in the days when investors wanted everyone to gear up and taking on too much debt.
EdM's summer. 1. The providors of most of his funding are loosening their commitment and upping their list of demands. 2. His lead over his main competitor is now shrinking and may even place his unit behind. 3. His USP proposal to "the customers" of "grow with us" is now being undermined through a better customer experience being delivered by his main competitor. 4. His present customers do not like his continued support for subsidised pricing to a section of society that cannot be bothered to work for a better deal.
"In addition, there's the good economic news. Second quarter growth of 0.6 per isn't a reason to get out the bunting – the economy is still 3.3 per cent smaller than it's pre-recession peak – but the signs are positive. For instance, this is the first time since Q3 2011 that all four sectors of the economy are growing. You don't hear Ed Balls using the expression "too far, too fast" any more (possibly because he doesn't want to draw attention to his driving style).
In fact, you don't hear him saying much of anything these days – unless it's to bang on about the "tax cut for millionaires", which is a bit rich considering that the average tax rate for those earning £1m was 35.1 per in 09-10 compared to 43.6 per cent in 12-13. The case he made against George Osborne's deficit-reduction programme in his Bloomberg speech in 2010 has now been thoroughly discredited. http://www.edballs.co.uk/blog/?p=907
Contrary to his Keynesian critique, fiscal retrenchment hasn't led to a collapse in business confidence, soaring unemployment and a corresponding fall in demand. In fact, almost one-and-a-half million jobs have been created in the private sector since 2010, unemployment is lower than it was when Labour left office and, according to the latest YouGov/CEBR poll, consumer confidence is higher than at any time since April 2010. Stick that in your pipe, Mr Flatline. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100228080/can-ed-miliband-survive-until-2015-fingers-crossed/
Another company that failed to heed the advance of technology. "Lenders have taken control of Yellow Pages owner Hibu in a restructuring deal that will leave nothing for shareholders but aims to save jobs.
The deal cuts £800m of the company's £2.3bn debts, which were largely run up via foreign acquisitions during the last decade's credit bubble.
The phone books and digital services firm, which rebranded itself from Yell last year, has 12,000 employees.
Lenders will take ownership of the firm and slow the repayment of its debts.
The creditors include George Soros' hedge fund, US private equity group Blackstone and the major European investment bank Deutsche Bank.
The deal has been given the nod by a co-ordination group of lenders representing just under 40% of the company's debts, but still needs formal approval from at least 75% of creditors.
It is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Hibu's fall from grace came after it expanded too rapidly during the last decade - including the 3.3bn-euro purchase of a Spanish directories business in 2006 - only to see its business model of listing local small businesses undermined by more generic online search engines such as Google."
Not really, a lot of their business is online. Their main problem was overexpanding in the days when investors wanted everyone to gear up and taking on too much debt.
You have a product called Yellow Pages. It also is called that online. You then decide to call your service Hibu and write to the customers (advertisers) and say that they are now dealing with Hibu (wtf, is it a disease or a plant?). You have then lost the brand image of Yellow pages.
2. All sectors of the economy contributed to the increase in GDP growth in Q2 2013.
3. This growth is being achieved at a time of fiscal consolidation. Government borrowing is being reduced and spending cut in real terms.
But whilst we are here, the impact of house price rises on consumption should be noted. Osborne needs to stimulate both ends of the chain to balance the impact of housing market interventions on the economy.
Both you and tim should note this is why further stimulus from the beginning of next year is being introduced. Remortgaging finance and support for a wider range of house buyers is necessary to avoid sole support for first time buyers negatively effecting overall consumption and growth in the economy.
So you're saying it's a non-government assisted recovery with a housing bubble in the pipeline and a deterioration in the balance of payments from too much consumer spending ? I can see where you're coming from Avery.
The truth is somewhere between the middle of Avery's Hallelujah chorus and Alanbrooke's requiem. A nice sonata perhaps.
2. All sectors of the economy contributed to the increase in GDP growth in Q2 2013.
3. This growth is being achieved at a time of fiscal consolidation. Government borrowing is being reduced and spending cut in real terms.
But whilst we are here, the impact of house price rises on consumption should be noted. Osborne needs to stimulate both ends of the chain to balance the impact of housing market interventions on the economy.
Both you and tim should note this is why further stimulus from the beginning of next year is being introduced. Remortgaging finance and support for a wider range of house buyers is necessary to avoid sole support for first time buyers negatively effecting overall consumption and growth in the economy.
So you're saying it's a non-government assisted recovery with a housing bubble in the pipeline and a deterioration in the balance of payments from too much consumer spending ? I can see where you're coming from Avery.
The truth is somewhere between the middle of Avery's Hallelujah chorus and Alanbrooke's requiem. A nice sonata perhaps.
LOL very astute, I've been listening to Mozart's Requiem for most of the week. Kudos !
Plato - I'm not sure I can be bothered to debunk Toby Young's ludicrous argument. Safe to say Toby clearly doesn't really understand economics. But he completely misses the irony. If the economy is improving it appears to be because of Keynesian intervention in the housing market after 3 years of do nothing government. As I said earlier it's probably completely the wrong sector to intervene in, but if only we'd had a government that believed in doing something pro-active in 2010. I think Toby will have to explain how 3 years of stagnation and the government failing to meet it's fiscal targets vindicates their strategy. It doesn't seem convincing.
PB Tories spend all morning spinning the party line, and now complain Labour is not joining in the fun. Is this what pb has become?
1. What party line? 2. Who are these pb Tories? Are they the ones who are anti-Osborne and think that Claire Perry should have remained at home?
Cameron set up Claire Perry to do the porn stuff while he concentrated on the photoshoots with bereaved relatives. Bit unfair to solely blame her for being out of her depth, Dave gave her the job so she could say "As a mother of three" a lot, no other reason it seems.
Dear Tim, Here is a little info, Claire Perry is part of the Osborne team, she was before the GE and is now after it.
Another company that failed to heed the advance of technology. "Lenders have taken control of Yellow Pages owner Hibu in a restructuring deal that will leave nothing for shareholders but aims to save jobs.
The deal has been given the nod by a co-ordination group of lenders representing just under 40% of the company's debts, but still needs formal approval from at least 75% of creditors.
It is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Hibu's fall from grace came after it expanded too rapidly during the last decade - including the 3.3bn-euro purchase of a Spanish directories business in 2006 - only to see its business model of listing local small businesses undermined by more generic online search engines such as Google."
Not really, a lot of their business is online. Their main problem was overexpanding in the days when investors wanted everyone to gear up and taking on too much debt.
You have a product called Yellow Pages. It also is called that online. You then decide to call your service Hibu and write to the customers (advertisers) and say that they are now dealing with Hibu (wtf, is it a disease or a plant?). You have then lost the brand image of Yellow pages.
How dumb was that?
God knows how they ended up with Hibu, but I think was only for their stockmarket listing. Operational brands stayed the same in their relevant markets AFAIK. But their biggest issue was just dumb pandering to investors, the blokes who wanted them to gear up and then moaned when they had too much debt.
I'd be surprised if changing to an open list made much difference to the outcome next year, as most MEPs are unknown to the electorate. The real prize for UKIP will be if they can win plenty of council seats, on the coat-tails of their likely performance in the EU elections. The biggest prize will be if they can win a local council, and they now seem to have very good prospects in Havering, where the Conservative group is undergoing a massive purge, and three councillors have defected to UKIP, in addition to the councillor who recently won a by-election for them. Havering is ideal UKIP territory.
WRT the economy, it's good as far as it goes. Broad-based growth is welcome, and it comes at a time when the Eurozone is still in recession, and when the financial services sector is still bombed out. We can expect to see GDP reach its pre-recession level by the time of the next election, but that will still leave GDP per head about 4% below its peak. We probably won't pass that peak until late in the decade.
Without a doubt, the economy is in better shape than in May 2010, but there's a long way to go.
Dearie me. The angst and squirrel searching this morning is remarkable.
@BenM is once again the most sensible Labourite - he's consistently welcomed good economic news even though he fundamentally disagrees with what to do with it.
PB Tories spend all morning spinning the party line, and now complain Labour is not joining in the fun. Is this what pb has become?
1. What party line? 2. Who are these pb Tories? Are they the ones who are anti-Osborne and think that Claire Perry should have remained at home?
Cameron set up Claire Perry to do the porn stuff while he concentrated on the photoshoots with bereaved relatives. Bit unfair to solely blame her for being out of her depth, Dave gave her the job so she could say "As a mother of three" a lot, no other reason it seems.
"Dave gave her the job so she could say "As a mother of three" a lot, no other reason it seems."
yeah tim that's exactly it, Dave likes to portray the blues as the big family party it's all to get the Asian and Irish vote begorrah .
If the economy is improving it appears to be because of Keynesian intervention in the housing market .
Absolute garbage - did you miss all sectors growing ?
And why do you think they are growing. Because consumers have stopped worrying about their house price falling and are borrowing again. It's hard to see this ending well.
Martin Coxall @Grabcocque Ed Balls's writhing today is inevitable. Labour predicated their entire narrative on never recovering, so any rebound would be catastrophic.
meanwhile
LabourList @LabourList Labour to urgently pursue disciplinary action over Falkirk labli.st/13fgfIB
If the economy is improving it appears to be because of Keynesian intervention in the housing market .
Absolute garbage - did you miss all sectors growing ?
And why do you think they are growing. Because consumers have stopped worrying about their house price falling and are borrowing again. It's hard to see this ending well.
Can you point me to the point on this graph where this happened ??
Osborne spent more than Labour and borrowed £245 billion more than he forecast
How many times do I need to post the evidence?
Public Sector Aggregates: Total Managed Expenditure ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year Nominal Change | Real Change | GDP Ratio Change £ bn % | £ bn % | % % ---------------------------------------------------------------- Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling
I've not had much time for Nick Robinson in the past but he strikes a true note in this piece below:
Growth but not as we know it
There'll be no more talk of dips - double let alone treble - as people speak of recovery and not recession.
That will have an impact on political psychology - giving Tory MPs another reason to smile on their sun loungers this summer and allowing George Osborne to believe that he has finally put that "omnishambles" Budget behind him.
However, Ed Balls and Labour will be quick to remind us that a recovery in one measure of national economic output is not the same as a recovery in living standards. Average real incomes fell by 3% last year and the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies believes they will fall again as wages are squeezed, benefits and tax credits cut and inflation increases.
The politics of 'growth versus austerity' will slowly transform into the politics of who will improve 'living standards for all'. That's why the shadow chancellor is launching a Commission on Inclusive Prosperity with the former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
Now they might not use those exact words down the 'Dog and Duck' but it is what they care about - which is why the chancellor spent the early hours of this morning being filmed at a bakery, with a motorway repair crew and at a supermarket distribution centre.
Today's figures tell a simple story. This is growth but - as they used to say on Star Trek - not as we know it.
PS: The former Director General of the CBI has an interesting piece in the FT this morning on whether GDP really matters.
PB Tories spend all morning spinning the party line, and now complain Labour is not joining in the fun. Is this what pb has become?
1. What party line? 2. Who are these pb Tories? Are they the ones who are anti-Osborne and think that Claire Perry should have remained at home?
Cameron set up Claire Perry to do the porn stuff while he concentrated on the photoshoots with bereaved relatives. Bit unfair to solely blame her for being out of her depth, Dave gave her the job so she could say "As a mother of three" a lot, no other reason it seems.
"Dave gave her the job so she could say "As a mother of three" a lot, no other reason it seems."
yeah tim that's exactly it, Dave likes to portray the blues as the big family party it's all to get the Asian and Irish vote begorrah .
I think we all know exactly why Cameron poses with bereaved relatives and tries to draw a link with his fatherly porn filter.
well so you say, what is less clear is why you are so infatuated with Dave and keep droning on the same dreary dirge. It's not as if it's changing anyone's mind or shifting the tectonic plates of UK politics. If you're going to sledge you could at l;east try to make it humorous.
Sir Sidney Ruff-Diamond - JackW Lady Joan Ruff-Diamond - Mrs JackW The Khasi of Kalabar - Mike Smithson Private James Widdle - Andrea Captain Keene - JohnO Bungdit Din - Sunil Brother Belcher - SeanT Sergeant Major MacNutt - TheScreamingEagles Princess Jelhi - Plato A Fakir -tim Private Ginger Hale - Nick Palmer Major Shorthouse - Richard Nabavi
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
Excellent news on growth this morning and it does seem that the gap between Labour and the Conservatuves is narrowing. However for that gap to be reduced further and reversed it seems to me that the squeeze people feel on thier household incomes will need to have been relaxed by 2015 i.e it will need to feel a recovery in people's spending power. That will be very difficult to achieve in my view and so I still see a hung parliament as the best DC can hope to achieve in 2015 unless something really seismic happens (eg the Falklnads in 1982) to trump everything else.
Tim Housing bubble is your new meme, There isn't one that is noticeable where I live , if anything prices are static..but then again just about every meme you have has no basis in fact . its a lot of hot air and wasted kdp's.
That makes no sense, a bubble's a bubble even if it has stabilised, until it bursts or gets slowly deflated by inflation of the prices of other things. We have a socking great Brown bubble which until Osborne's latest idiocy was slowly deflating in real terms outside London.
I now despise Osborne as much as Brown. And he is impliedly betting that interest rates won't move up between now and GE 2015, which is brave.
Not a left right split on this. PB Tories vs smart Tories and the rest.
No, tim.
A split between those who used published statistics to support their position and those who base their opinion on prejudice.
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
It's self inflicted foot shooting by the Two Eds. They have refused to face up to the legacy of the last Govt. and have also refused to launch any policies which might challenge the direction GO is going in. Now they've left themselves on the wrong side of the argument and have about 12 months to do a face losing volte-face. The only real challenge to GO is from the right where his policies are regularly taken to task.
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
It's self inflicted foot shooting by the Two Eds. They have refused to face up to the legacy of the last Govt. and have also refused to launch any policies which might challenge the direction GO is going in. Now they've left themselves on the wrong side of the argument and have about 12 months to do a face losing volte-face. The only real challenge to GO is from the right where his policies are regularly taken to task.
Labour are still making things worse for themselves. Today they are pushing the line that the economy is still 3.3% smaller than before the economic crash when they were in government and that at the current rate it will take 18 months to exceed that size.
Where does 18 months take us? January 2015 - just before the election campaign starts. Labour are setting up the election campaign for the Coalition to argue that they have recovered the ground lost by the economy during Labour's recession. It is comically bad forward planning on Labour's part.
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
It's self inflicted foot shooting by the Two Eds. They have refused to face up to the legacy of the last Govt. and have also refused to launch any policies which might challenge the direction GO is going in. Now they've left themselves on the wrong side of the argument and have about 12 months to do a face losing volte-face. The only real challenge to GO is from the right where his policies are regularly taken to task.
Labour are still making things worse for themselves. Today they are pushing the line that the economy is still 3.3% smaller than before the economic crash when they were in government and that at the current rate it will take 18 months to exceed that size.
Where does 18 months take us? January 2015 - just before the election campaign starts. Labour are setting up the election campaign for the Coalition to argue that they have recovered the ground lost by the economy during Labour's recession. It is comically bad forward planning on Labour's part.
Yup and the problem for them being if growth gets back on it;s historic track the economy will have passed it's previous peak.
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
It's self inflicted foot shooting by the Two Eds. They have refused to face up to the legacy of the last Govt. and have also refused to launch any policies which might challenge the direction GO is going in. Now they've left themselves on the wrong side of the argument and have about 12 months to do a face losing volte-face. The only real challenge to GO is from the right where his policies are regularly taken to task.
Labour are still making things worse for themselves. Today they are pushing the line that the economy is still 3.3% smaller than before the economic crash when they were in government and that at the current rate it will take 18 months to exceed that size.
Where does 18 months take us? January 2015 - just before the election campaign starts. Labour are setting up the election campaign for the Coalition to argue that they have recovered the ground lost by the economy during Labour's recession. It is comically bad forward planning on Labour's part.
"Comically bad" - after 5 years ? How many G20 countries do you know whose GDP is lower today than 2008 ?
Sir Sidney Ruff-Diamond - JackW Lady Joan Ruff-Diamond - Mrs JackW The Khasi of Kalabar - Mike Smithson Private James Widdle - Andrea Captain Keene - JohnO Bungdit Din - Sunil Brother Belcher - SeanT Sergeant Major MacNutt - TheScreamingEagles Princess Jelhi - Plato A Fakir -tim Private Ginger Hale - Nick Palmer Major Shorthouse - Richard Nabavi
Oblitus sum me - do you know when the last time was it took 6 years to get output back to previous levels before a recession? The 1870s. So there we have it. The worst recovery for 140 years and most of it on this government's watch. I don't exonerate Labour from this mess, but if the coalition want to claim that as an achievement they are welcome to it.
2. All sectors of the economy contributed to the increase in GDP growth in Q2 2013.
3. This growth is being achieved at a time of fiscal consolidation. Government borrowing is being reduced and spending cut in real terms.
But whilst we are here, the impact of house price rises on consumption should be noted. Osborne needs to stimulate both ends of the chain to balance the impact of housing market interventions on the economy.
Both you and tim should note this is why further stimulus from the beginning of next year is being introduced. Remortgaging finance and support for a wider range of house buyers is necessary to avoid sole support for first time buyers negatively effecting overall consumption and growth in the economy.
So you're saying it's a non-government assisted recovery with a housing bubble in the pipeline and a deterioration in the balance of payments from too much consumer spending ? I can see where you're coming from Avery.
The truth is somewhere between the middle of Avery's Hallelujah chorus and Alanbrooke's requiem. A nice sonata perhaps.
LOL very astute, I've been listening to Mozart's Requiem for most of the week. Kudos !
Whose Requiem is it, Alanbrooke? I hope it is one of the more interesting ones. I recommend Jordi Savall's.
And now for a little bit more Mozart: a bit of a sonata as requested. "The March of the Makers" given some rather flamboyant welly by Arcadi Volodos.
Sir Sidney Ruff-Diamond - JackW Lady Joan Ruff-Diamond - Mrs JackW The Khasi of Kalabar - Mike Smithson Private James Widdle - Andrea Captain Keene - JohnO Bungdit Din - Sunil Brother Belcher - SeanT Sergeant Major MacNutt - TheScreamingEagles Princess Jelhi - Plato A Fakir -tim Private Ginger Hale - Nick Palmer Major Shorthouse - Richard Nabavi
Some PB type casting there .... especially immediately below you on the list .... if you know what I mean !!
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
It's self inflicted foot shooting by the Two Eds. They have refused to face up to the legacy of the last Govt. and have also refused to launch any policies which might challenge the direction GO is going in. Now they've left themselves on the wrong side of the argument and have about 12 months to do a face losing volte-face. The only real challenge to GO is from the right where his policies are regularly taken to task.
Labour are still making things worse for themselves. Today they are pushing the line that the economy is still 3.3% smaller than before the economic crash when they were in government and that at the current rate it will take 18 months to exceed that size.
Where does 18 months take us? January 2015 - just before the election campaign starts. Labour are setting up the election campaign for the Coalition to argue that they have recovered the ground lost by the economy during Labour's recession. It is comically bad forward planning on Labour's part.
"Comically bad" - after 5 years ? How many G20 countries do you know whose GDP is lower today than 2008 ?
Lower?
I am fairly sure both German and French GDP is lower now than it was in 2008.
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
It's self inflicted foot shooting by the Two Eds. They have refused to face up to the legacy of the last Govt. and have also refused to launch any policies which might challenge the direction GO is going in. Now they've left themselves on the wrong side of the argument and have about 12 months to do a face losing volte-face. The only real challenge to GO is from the right where his policies are regularly taken to task.
Labour are still making things worse for themselves. Today they are pushing the line that the economy is still 3.3% smaller than before the economic crash when they were in government and that at the current rate it will take 18 months to exceed that size.
Where does 18 months take us? January 2015 - just before the election campaign starts. Labour are setting up the election campaign for the Coalition to argue that they have recovered the ground lost by the economy during Labour's recession. It is comically bad forward planning on Labour's part.
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
It's self inflicted foot shooting by the Two Eds. They have refused to face up to the legacy of the last Govt. and have also refused to launch any policies which might challenge the direction GO is going in. Now they've left themselves on the wrong side of the argument and have about 12 months to do a face losing volte-face. The only real challenge to GO is from the right where his policies are regularly taken to task.
Labour are still making things worse for themselves. Today they are pushing the line that the economy is still 3.3% smaller than before the economic crash when they were in government and that at the current rate it will take 18 months to exceed that size.
Where does 18 months take us? January 2015 - just before the election campaign starts. Labour are setting up the election campaign for the Coalition to argue that they have recovered the ground lost by the economy during Labour's recession. It is comically bad forward planning on Labour's part.
"Comically bad" - after 5 years ? How many G20 countries do you know whose GDP is lower today than 2008 ?
I've no idea, and neither has the electorate.
The message of "we've fixed the economic mess Labour created" is the one the Coalition are aiming for - and Labour today are helping to set that up by creating a metric the Coalition is likely to pass by the next election (whether the economy is bigger than at the previous peak).
Just you wait until Budget 2015 - that will be the message all over it (assuming the economy does not relapse).
Sir Sidney Ruff-Diamond - JackW Lady Joan Ruff-Diamond - Mrs JackW The Khasi of Kalabar - Mike Smithson Private James Widdle - Andrea Captain Keene - JohnO Bungdit Din - Sunil Brother Belcher - SeanT Sergeant Major MacNutt - TheScreamingEagles Princess Jelhi - Plato A Fakir -tim Private Ginger Hale - Nick Palmer Major Shorthouse - Richard Nabavi
Some PB type casting there .... especially immediately below you on the list .... if you know what I mean !!
to what purpose ? Do you think CRB checks stop child abuse ? It's about as much use as Perry's porn filter, but just hassles all the people who do volunteer work. Not so much the Big Society as the Twisted Society.
CCHQ Press Office @RicHolden The "bankers bonus tax" @edballsmp is shopping around on TV today has been spent by Labour more than 10 times over: guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/…
Plato - I'm not sure I can be bothered to debunk Toby Young's ludicrous argument. Safe to say Toby clearly doesn't really understand economics. But he completely misses the irony. If the economy is improving it appears to be because of Keynesian intervention in the housing market after 3 years of do nothing government. As I said earlier it's probably completely the wrong sector to intervene in, but if only we'd had a government that believed in doing something pro-active in 2010. I think Toby will have to explain how 3 years of stagnation and the government failing to meet it's fiscal targets vindicates their strategy. It doesn't seem convincing.
No one who can write economically ignorant nonsense like this is in a position to accuse others of economic ignorance. Can you not do better?
"Julian Cook, professor of economic theology at Roehampton University, said: “Jesus stormed into the Temple and turned over the tables of the moneylenders. He was pissed off.
“He didn’t set up his own table next to them and put up a sign saying ‘better deal here’.”
The Church should lend money with its vast stocks of ill gotten gains - I mean what else is it doing of any note for the country apart from whining about "austerity" ?
And the Lord said unto Welby, "Go forth, and set up a more competitive lending scheme than that of Wonga, for they are not righteous, and their APR is a curse upon mankind."
And in his heart Welby was glad, for it meant he did not have to talk about keeping his church united regarding the role of gay Christians.
And the Lord said unto Welby, "Go forth, and set up a more competitive lending scheme than that of Wonga, for they are not righteous, and their APR is a curse upon mankind."
And in his heart Welby was glad, for it meant he did not have to talk about keeping his church united regarding the role of gay Christians.
Oblitus sum me - do you know when the last time was it took 6 years to get output back to previous levels before a recession? The 1870s. So there we have it. The worst recovery for 140 years and most of it on this government's watch. I don't exonerate Labour from this mess, but if the coalition want to claim that as an achievement they are welcome to it.
Ask yourself why the British economy suffered particularly badly in 2009. Was it, perchance, because of the way it had been run by the government in charge for the entire previous decade, and more? The way they let finance run riot? The grotesque overspending so we had no surplus to fall back on? The voodoo economics of no-more-boom-and-bust?
The Great F*cking Up of Britain was ENTIRELY Labour's fault. End of argument.
Why did every G24 economy bar Canada, I believe, suffer badly in 2009 ! It was, to use your charming command of the English language, because there was a f***ing banking meltdown caused by *ankers. Were you in Mars then ?
tim, you haven't a clue on the internal workings of a parish, this is the equivalent of Miliband exiling all his Union support.
CRB checks are no big deal, are choirmasters who work with kids seriously going to leave because of them?
again just shows how little you know about a parish, you seem to think every church is a cathedral. The issue will be on the other volunteers and why they want to pay £50 each year just to keep Welby happy. Since churches rely heavily on volunteers he's heading for a problem imo.
I've had the same issue ( anecdote tim just for you ) chez Brooke. Daughter is doing summer camp work at a local school ( she's CRB checked ), school desperatley needs help on sports activities for 6&7 yr olds. Son doing sports leadership course but can't help out because I won't shell out £50 to let him volunteer. Everyone a winner.
The Church should lend money with its vast stocks of ill gotten gains - I mean what else is it doing of any note for the country apart from whining about "austerity" ?
It's nearly as pointless as Labour.
Osborne is funded by his father, Messiah Gove can now get funding from his father and the holy ghost.
Somewhere out there there will be somebody other than Mick Pork who knows what your post means.
TIM IF YOU WANT TO MAKE THAT CLAIM ABOUT GEORGE OSBORNE < I WANT TO SEE A 100% LINK TO IT. YOU MAY NOT MAKE ANY SUCH SUCH CLAIMS WITHOUT EVIDENCING THEM.
The crackdown has begun in earnest. I was at primary school in the early 70s with a kid [short very fat and blond] who punched and kicked a teacher doing playground duty. He was expelled and expelled again from another school - if he's not doing time for GBH or worse, I'd be amazed. He was notable because he was a rarity. I even recall his name because he referred to my mother in extremely rude terms that I'd no idea what they meant - think gangsta rapper of today...
"Figures show that some 690 primary pupils were permanently barred in 2011/12 amid a new crackdown on bad behaviour in the classroom. It emerged that 250 infants aged just seven or under were excluded from school – more than one for each day of the academic year.
A further 37,790 pupils were also temporarily suspended by state primaries in England, with offences including possession of drugs and alcohol, sexual misconduct, racist abuse and theft.
The disclosure – in data from the Department for Education – follows claims from teaching unions that poor parenting may be fuelling a decline in standards of behaviour in schools.
Earlier this year, the NASUWT claimed that more than two-thirds of teachers complain of “widespread” indiscipline on a daily basis, with 85 per claiming they had faced verbal abuse by a pupil in the last year...
According to today’s figures, the overall number of children suspended from primary and secondary school in the last academic year – 2011/12 – was actually down from 304,370 to 324,110. The figures include 1,220 pupils – 160 in primary schools – who were suspended 10 times or more in just 12 months.
But the overall drop in fixed-term exclusions coincided with a rise in expulsions, suggesting schools are taking a tougher line on the very worst troublemakers.
Mr. Surbiton, the UK suffered its longest and deepest recession in history.
Well-prepared economies like Australia and Canada have bounced back rather better and suffered rather less. If Brown hadn't borrowed £150bn needlessly in the years leading up to the crash or brokered the HBOS and Lloyds deal we'd be in rather better shape.
Oblitus sum me - do you know when the last time was it took 6 years to get output back to previous levels before a recession? The 1870s. So there we have it. The worst recovery for 140 years and most of it on this government's watch. I don't exonerate Labour from this mess, but if the coalition want to claim that as an achievement they are welcome to it.
Well, the Coalition was handed the shitty end of the stick by the outgoing government. Output did, after all, drop by 7.2% in 2008/9.
Oblitus sum me - do you know when the last time was it took 6 years to get output back to previous levels before a recession? The 1870s. So there we have it. The worst recovery for 140 years and most of it on this government's watch. I don't exonerate Labour from this mess, but if the coalition want to claim that as an achievement they are welcome to it.
Ask yourself why the British economy suffered particularly badly in 2009. Was it, perchance, because of the way it had been run by the government in charge for the entire previous decade, and more? The way they let finance run riot? The grotesque overspending so we had no surplus to fall back on? The voodoo economics of no-more-boom-and-bust?
The Great F*cking Up of Britain was ENTIRELY Labour's fault. End of argument.
Why did every G24 economy bar Canada, I believe, suffer badly in 2009 ! It was, to use your charming command of the English language, because there was a f***ing banking meltdown caused by *ankers. Were you in Mars then ?
Why didn't Brown run a surplus in the good times then ?
The key issue on avoiding a giant fu<kup is to ensure that public finances are sound. Always. Through responsible spending and tax policies. Always. When the inevitable downturn comes along a government can spend more to boost GDP.
Make hay when the sun shines and spend when it rains. Smooth the peaks and troughs. It's called Keynesianism.
Labour understood the spending bit alright but never the 'make hay' bit. In fact they were, quite unforgivably, running a 3.5% deficit at the height of the boom.
Mr. Surbiton, the UK suffered its longest and deepest recession in history.
Well-prepared economies like Australia and Canada have bounced back rather better and suffered rather less. If Brown hadn't borrowed £150bn needlessly in the years leading up to the crash or brokered the HBOS and Lloyds deal we'd be in rather better shape.
Well-prepared in the sense of having small financial centres or lots of natural resources to sell to China? If only our geologists had thought of that.
OT I see Australia now turns out to be floating on oil. The lucky country indeed.
It's not just people on the left who aren't convinced by this recovery. This is what the Telegraph's anti-Keynesian free market commentator Jeremy Warner said a few weeks ago
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
It's self inflicted foot shooting by the Two Eds. They have refused to face up to the legacy of the last Govt. and have also refused to launch any policies which might challenge the direction GO is going in. Now they've left themselves on the wrong side of the argument and have about 12 months to do a face losing volte-face. The only real challenge to GO is from the right where his policies are regularly taken to task.
Labour are still making things worse for themselves. Today they are pushing the line that the economy is still 3.3% smaller than before the economic crash when they were in government and that at the current rate it will take 18 months to exceed that size.
Where does 18 months take us? January 2015 - just before the election campaign starts. Labour are setting up the election campaign for the Coalition to argue that they have recovered the ground lost by the economy during Labour's recession. It is comically bad forward planning on Labour's part.
"Comically bad" - after 5 years ? How many G20 countries do you know whose GDP is lower today than 2008 ?
Lower?
I am fairly sure both German and French GDP is lower now than it was in 2008.
Germany - not by much France - more.
Any others you want checking?
Fairly sure, why should I expect a PBTory to be knowledgeable ?
Mr. Surbiton, the UK suffered its longest and deepest recession in history.
Well-prepared economies like Australia and Canada have bounced back rather better and suffered rather less. If Brown hadn't borrowed £150bn needlessly in the years leading up to the crash or brokered the HBOS and Lloyds deal we'd be in rather better shape.
Well-prepared in the sense of having small financial centres or lots of natural resources to sell to China? If only our geologists had thought of that.
OT I see Australia now turns out to be floating on oil. The lucky country indeed.
"If Brown hadn't borrowed £150bn needlessly in the years leading up to the crash "
Our debt to GDP ratio "before the crash" or indeed immediately after were below that well known extravagant country called Germany. The ratio only went above Germany in the 4th quarter of 2010 when your lot were in charge.
Mr. Surbiton, the UK suffered its longest and deepest recession in history.
Well-prepared economies like Australia and Canada have bounced back rather better and suffered rather less. If Brown hadn't borrowed £150bn needlessly in the years leading up to the crash or brokered the HBOS and Lloyds deal we'd be in rather better shape.
Well-prepared in the sense of having small financial centres or lots of natural resources to sell to China? If only our geologists had thought of that.
OT I see Australia now turns out to be floating on oil. The lucky country indeed.
"If Brown hadn't borrowed £150bn needlessly in the years leading up to the crash "
Our debt to GDP ratio "before the crash" or indeed immediately after were below that well known extravagant country called Germany. The ratio only went above Germany in the 4th quarter of 2010 when your lot were in charge.
Why would growth rate give you a simple answer to the question?
Anyway, looking at the GDP values, admittedly only UK is lower than 2008. All three are lower than their pre crash peaks (Germany and France seem to have grown 2008-2009 ... not entirely sure if there's a subtlety I've missed ).
Oh wait, I'll throw in a faux outrage at use of PBTory as well. RAWR!
Oblitus sum me - do you know when the last time was it took 6 years to get output back to previous levels before a recession? The 1870s. So there we have it. The worst recovery for 140 years and most of it on this government's watch. I don't exonerate Labour from this mess, but if the coalition want to claim that as an achievement they are welcome to it.
Ask yourself why the British economy suffered particularly badly in 2009. Was it, perchance, because of the way it had been run by the government in charge for the entire previous decade, and more? The way they let finance run riot? The grotesque overspending so we had no surplus to fall back on? The voodoo economics of no-more-boom-and-bust?
The Great F*cking Up of Britain was ENTIRELY Labour's fault. End of argument.
Why did every G24 economy bar Canada, I believe, suffer badly in 2009 ! It was, to use your charming command of the English language, because there was a f***ing banking meltdown caused by *ankers. Were you in Mars then ?
Why didn't Brown run a surplus in the good times then ?
Typical ignorant PBTory . They never learn.
How many years did Labour run surpluses and how many years did the Tories in the previous 18 years ?
Alex Salmond has been left embarrassed after a government document branding fossil fuels “damaging and price-volatile” was leaked the day after he began a charm offensive aimed at North Sea oil firms.
The paper shows that privately ministers are worried about the shifting price of oil, despite publicly making optimistic claims and accusing the UK Government of “fibbing” about projections.
The timing is particularly awkward for the SNP Government. On Tuesday, the First Minister launched an oil and gas strategy in which he lavished praise on the industry and said he had no plans to put their taxes up in an independent Scotland. “The sector in Scotland will continue to thrive for decades to come,” he said. “We will provide optimum conditions for the oil and gas industry to innovate and thrive in a globally-competitive environment.”
But the paper leaked yesterday states: “The transition to renewable energy reduces our dependence on damaging, price-volatile fossil fuels.” Opposition politicians said the paper showed the private concerns of ministers about relying on oil revenues. The First Minister accused them of “talking Scotland down”.
It is the second time a paper has leaked from the Scottish Government — and both have apparently come from the department of John Swinney, the Finance Secretary.
If you read it Scott you will see it is, they are very clearly and intelligently stating that we would not depend only on oil or fossil fuels long term. Only an idiot would think otherwise and the dumb unionists have been squealing for months about how the SNP should not base independence only on oil, surprise surprise the SNP agree and have no long term p[lans to base their fiscal policy only on oil. DOH.
Vote Yes and SNP and you'll be £ 300,000 better off. Guaranteed by Honest Eck.
can you show me where he said people would be £300,000 better off
Alex Salmond has been left embarrassed after a government document branding fossil fuels “damaging and price-volatile” was leaked the day after he began a charm offensive aimed at North Sea oil firms.
It is the second time a paper has leaked from the Scottish Government — and both have apparently come from the department of John Swinney, the Finance Secretary.
If you read it Scott you will see it is, they are very clearly and intelligently stating that we would not depend only on oil or fossil fuels long term. Only an idiot would think otherwise and the dumb unionists have been squealing for months about how the SNP should not base independence only on oil, surprise surprise the SNP agree and have no long term p[lans to base their fiscal policy only on oil. DOH.
Vote Yes and SNP and you'll be £ 300,000 better off. Guaranteed by Honest Eck.
can you show me where he said people would be £300,000 better off
I think he's got a bigger issue with minimum alcohol pricing, his welcoming european friends are being very european .
Comments
Tory Treasury @ToryTreasury
UK GDP growth over most recent 12 months of data is 1.4%, which is 6th highest of 28 EU countries. EU average is -0.7%
'Emergency question in the Lords on an ongoing A&E crisis.'
Your understandably having a bad day,perhaps JackW has some spare lemons you can chew on.
1. It is not a 'recovery' but a RECOVERY.
2. All sectors of the economy contributed to the increase in GDP growth in Q2 2013.
3. This growth is being achieved at a time of fiscal consolidation. Government borrowing is being reduced and spending cut in real terms.
4. The interventions in the housing and mortgage markets, most of which are yet to be implemented, have had minimal effect on Q2 growth. The only sector which may have benefitted is construction output where residential house building volumes are responding to stimulus.
Although the arrest of house price depreciation; the rise in mortgage approvals (but not net mortgage lending) and increase in house sales volume; and reversing of construction output falls have all contributed to higher consumer confidence levels, their immediate impact on economic growth is very small.
One impact of house prices rising which is often overlooked is the negative impact it can have on general consumer demand. First time house purchasers tend to save up for the mortgage loan deposit and therefore reduce consumption. Usually, this fall in consumption by first time purchasers is compensated for by long term house owners releasing equity in their houses to facilitate increased consumption.
At present, only first time purchases of new builds are receiving significant government stimulus and remortgaging and equity release finance is severely constrained in supply. The likely impact of current government interventions on the economy would be to depress consumption and increase savings ratios and residential property investment. Or put more simply, to reduce GDP growth.
But whilst we are here, the impact of house price rises on consumption should be noted. Osborne needs to stimulate both ends of the chain to balance the impact of housing market interventions on the economy.
Both you and tim should note this is why further stimulus from the beginning of next year is being introduced. Remortgaging finance and support for a wider range of house buyers is necessary to avoid sole support for first time buyers negatively effecting overall consumption and growth in the economy.
What is abundantly clear on PB and Twitter is that Labour doesn't have anything to say - literally.
This can't have been a total surprise, yet there is no messaging for the troops to parrot that passes muster. There are old arguments and cliches but nothing to address the fact that the tide seems to have turned.
LHQ need to sharpen up their act.
"Lenders have taken control of Yellow Pages owner Hibu in a restructuring deal that will leave nothing for shareholders but aims to save jobs.
The deal cuts £800m of the company's £2.3bn debts, which were largely run up via foreign acquisitions during the last decade's credit bubble.
The phone books and digital services firm, which rebranded itself from Yell last year, has 12,000 employees.
Lenders will take ownership of the firm and slow the repayment of its debts.
The creditors include George Soros' hedge fund, US private equity group Blackstone and the major European investment bank Deutsche Bank.
The deal has been given the nod by a co-ordination group of lenders representing just under 40% of the company's debts, but still needs formal approval from at least 75% of creditors.
It is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Hibu's fall from grace came after it expanded too rapidly during the last decade - including the 3.3bn-euro purchase of a Spanish directories business in 2006 - only to see its business model of listing local small businesses undermined by more generic online search engines such as Google."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23448033
So you're saying it's a non-government assisted recovery with a housing bubble in the pipeline and a deterioration in the balance of payments from too much consumer spending ? I can see where you're coming from Avery.
"LHQ need to sharpen up their act."
How do your sharpen a vacuum ?
re. tim - I don't think the markets are pricing in a rate rise (to say nothing of the more explicit pronouncements of Bernanke & Carney) until 2016.
1. The providors of most of his funding are loosening their commitment and upping their list of demands.
2. His lead over his main competitor is now shrinking and may even place his unit behind.
3. His USP proposal to "the customers" of "grow with us" is now being undermined through a better customer experience being delivered by his main competitor.
4. His present customers do not like his continued support for subsidised pricing to a section of society that cannot be bothered to work for a better deal.
Is this what pb has become?
"In addition, there's the good economic news. Second quarter growth of 0.6 per isn't a reason to get out the bunting – the economy is still 3.3 per cent smaller than it's pre-recession peak – but the signs are positive. For instance, this is the first time since Q3 2011 that all four sectors of the economy are growing. You don't hear Ed Balls using the expression "too far, too fast" any more (possibly because he doesn't want to draw attention to his driving style).
In fact, you don't hear him saying much of anything these days – unless it's to bang on about the "tax cut for millionaires", which is a bit rich considering that the average tax rate for those earning £1m was 35.1 per in 09-10 compared to 43.6 per cent in 12-13. The case he made against George Osborne's deficit-reduction programme in his Bloomberg speech in 2010 has now been thoroughly discredited. http://www.edballs.co.uk/blog/?p=907
Contrary to his Keynesian critique, fiscal retrenchment hasn't led to a collapse in business confidence, soaring unemployment and a corresponding fall in demand. In fact, almost one-and-a-half million jobs have been created in the private sector since 2010, unemployment is lower than it was when Labour left office and, according to the latest YouGov/CEBR poll, consumer confidence is higher than at any time since April 2010. Stick that in your pipe, Mr Flatline. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100228080/can-ed-miliband-survive-until-2015-fingers-crossed/
You have then lost the brand image of Yellow pages.
How dumb was that?
2. Who are these pb Tories? Are they the ones who are anti-Osborne and think that Claire Perry should have remained at home?
Or had he abolished boom and bust ?
Answers on a postcard please.
WRT the economy, it's good as far as it goes. Broad-based growth is welcome, and it comes at a time when the Eurozone is still in recession, and when the financial services sector is still bombed out. We can expect to see GDP reach its pre-recession level by the time of the next election, but that will still leave GDP per head about 4% below its peak. We probably won't pass that peak until late in the decade.
Without a doubt, the economy is in better shape than in May 2010, but there's a long way to go.
@BenM is once again the most sensible Labourite - he's consistently welcomed good economic news even though he fundamentally disagrees with what to do with it.
Those countries exceeding 1.4% (according to Eurostat's slightly outdated figures) are: And non EU: Apart from Norway, I am not sure any of the countries listed would be recognised as such by Nigel Farage.
yeah tim that's exactly it, Dave likes to portray the blues as the big family party it's all to get the Asian and Irish vote begorrah .
Martin Coxall @Grabcocque
Ed Balls's writhing today is inevitable. Labour predicated their entire narrative on never recovering, so any rebound would be catastrophic.
meanwhile
LabourList @LabourList
Labour to urgently pursue disciplinary action over Falkirk labli.st/13fgfIB
Can you point me to the point on this graph where this happened ??
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/PublishingImages/hew/2012/Dec/chart1.GIF
Osborne spent more than Labour and borrowed £245 billion more than he forecast
How many times do I need to post the evidence? Brown increased spending in real terms by 17.5% between 2005-2010.
Osborne will have reduced it in real terms by -3.8% between 2010-2015.
Figures sources from PESA 2013.
Growth but not as we know it
There'll be no more talk of dips - double let alone treble - as people speak of recovery and not recession.
That will have an impact on political psychology - giving Tory MPs another reason to smile on their sun loungers this summer and allowing George Osborne to believe that he has finally put that "omnishambles" Budget behind him.
However, Ed Balls and Labour will be quick to remind us that a recovery in one measure of national economic output is not the same as a recovery in living standards. Average real incomes fell by 3% last year and the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies believes they will fall again as wages are squeezed, benefits and tax credits cut and inflation increases.
The politics of 'growth versus austerity' will slowly transform into the politics of who will improve 'living standards for all'. That's why the shadow chancellor is launching a Commission on Inclusive Prosperity with the former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
Now they might not use those exact words down the 'Dog and Duck' but it is what they care about - which is why the chancellor spent the early hours of this morning being filmed at a bakery, with a motorway repair crew and at a supermarket distribution centre.
Today's figures tell a simple story. This is growth but - as they used to say on Star Trek - not as we know it.
PS: The former Director General of the CBI has an interesting piece in the FT this morning on whether GDP really matters.
Cast of Characters :
Sir Sidney Ruff-Diamond - JackW
Lady Joan Ruff-Diamond - Mrs JackW
The Khasi of Kalabar - Mike Smithson
Private James Widdle - Andrea
Captain Keene - JohnO
Bungdit Din - Sunil
Brother Belcher - SeanT
Sergeant Major MacNutt - TheScreamingEagles
Princess Jelhi - Plato
A Fakir -tim
Private Ginger Hale - Nick Palmer
Major Shorthouse - Richard Nabavi
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/10167583/Unbalanced-and-unsustainable-this-is-the-wrong-kind-of-growth.html
Sadly Labour hasn't properly dealt with it's past and isn't putting up a proper rebuttal to the government. The Lib Dems have neutered themselves. It's a depressing sight.
A split between those who used published statistics to support their position and those who base their opinion on prejudice.
Watch out anyone who made a 'wacist' comment on yesterday's threads.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/10200817/Volunteers-who-refuse-CRB-checks-not-welcome-Archbishop-of-Canterbury-warns.html
Where does 18 months take us? January 2015 - just before the election campaign starts. Labour are setting up the election campaign for the Coalition to argue that they have recovered the ground lost by the economy during Labour's recession. It is comically bad forward planning on Labour's part.
And now for a little bit more Mozart: a bit of a sonata as requested. "The March of the Makers" given some rather flamboyant welly by Arcadi Volodos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qG9PZNJI_k
Rather sums up the mood of the time.
I am fairly sure both German and French GDP is lower now than it was in 2008.
Germany - not by much
France - more.
Any others you want checking?
I know Labour is recruiting for a Dept Dir of Comm but what is their current Dir of Comms doing? Not a lot judging by this mess.
When your own partisan and pretty loyal sites like LabourList are telling you to stop rubbishing the good news - things are clearly awry.
The message of "we've fixed the economic mess Labour created" is the one the Coalition are aiming for - and Labour today are helping to set that up by creating a metric the Coalition is likely to pass by the next election (whether the economy is bigger than at the previous peak).
Just you wait until Budget 2015 - that will be the message all over it (assuming the economy does not relapse).
'no evidence for that...'
tossers
The "bankers bonus tax" @edballsmp is shopping around on TV today has been spent by Labour more than 10 times over: guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/…
"Julian Cook, professor of economic theology at Roehampton University, said: “Jesus stormed into the Temple and turned over the tables of the moneylenders. He was pissed off.
“He didn’t set up his own table next to them and put up a sign saying ‘better deal here’.”
It's nearly as pointless as Labour.
And in his heart Welby was glad, for it meant he did not have to talk about keeping his church united regarding the role of gay Christians.
You rather miss Socrates don't you?
I've had the same issue ( anecdote tim just for you ) chez Brooke. Daughter is doing summer camp work at a local school ( she's CRB checked ), school desperatley needs help on sports activities for 6&7 yr olds. Son doing sports leadership course but can't help out because I won't shell out £50 to let him volunteer. Everyone a winner.
IF YOU WANT TO MAKE THAT CLAIM ABOUT GEORGE OSBORNE < I WANT TO SEE A 100% LINK TO IT. YOU MAY NOT MAKE ANY SUCH SUCH CLAIMS WITHOUT EVIDENCING THEM.
"Figures show that some 690 primary pupils were permanently barred in 2011/12 amid a new crackdown on bad behaviour in the classroom. It emerged that 250 infants aged just seven or under were excluded from school – more than one for each day of the academic year.
A further 37,790 pupils were also temporarily suspended by state primaries in England, with offences including possession of drugs and alcohol, sexual misconduct, racist abuse and theft.
The disclosure – in data from the Department for Education – follows claims from teaching unions that poor parenting may be fuelling a decline in standards of behaviour in schools.
Earlier this year, the NASUWT claimed that more than two-thirds of teachers complain of “widespread” indiscipline on a daily basis, with 85 per claiming they had faced verbal abuse by a pupil in the last year...
According to today’s figures, the overall number of children suspended from primary and secondary school in the last academic year – 2011/12 – was actually down from 304,370 to 324,110. The figures include 1,220 pupils – 160 in primary schools – who were suspended 10 times or more in just 12 months.
But the overall drop in fixed-term exclusions coincided with a rise in expulsions, suggesting schools are taking a tougher line on the very worst troublemakers.
According to the data, permanent exclusions in secondary schools increased for the first time in almost a decade, rising from 4,370 to 4,390 in a year. " http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10201763/Huge-rise-in-number-of-expulsions-from-primary-schools.html
Well-prepared economies like Australia and Canada have bounced back rather better and suffered rather less. If Brown hadn't borrowed £150bn needlessly in the years leading up to the crash or brokered the HBOS and Lloyds deal we'd be in rather better shape.
Economies are cyclical. Sh1t happens.
The key issue on avoiding a giant fu<kup is to ensure that public finances are sound. Always. Through responsible spending and tax policies. Always. When the inevitable downturn comes along a government can spend more to boost GDP.
Make hay when the sun shines and spend when it rains. Smooth the peaks and troughs. It's called Keynesianism.
Labour understood the spending bit alright but never the 'make hay' bit. In fact they were, quite unforgivably, running a 3.5% deficit at the height of the boom.
It's that simple.
OT I see Australia now turns out to be floating on oil. The lucky country indeed.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/gdp-growth-annual
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth-annual
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual
The figures are annualised.
the worth of GDP, class war - more flip flops than the Scholl factory.
Our debt to GDP ratio "before the crash" or indeed immediately after were below that well known extravagant country called Germany. The ratio only went above Germany in the 4th quarter of 2010 when your lot were in charge.
And the deficit?
Anyway, looking at the GDP values, admittedly only UK is lower than 2008. All three are lower than their pre crash peaks (Germany and France seem to have grown 2008-2009 ... not entirely sure if there's a subtlety I've missed ).
Oh wait, I'll throw in a faux outrage at use of PBTory as well. RAWR!
How many years did Labour run surpluses and how many years did the Tories in the previous 18 years ?
You would not like to know the answer.
The police may have decided not to investigate Falkirk BUT the Information Commissioner's Office will be, I'm told
"Don't blame me " - the Labour mantra - as used by Balls, Miliband and Brown.
You seem to be having a "mini McCluskey" today...
can you show me where he said people would be £300,000 better off
Taking my region and exaggerating, for the sake of example, an open list.
UKIP
Nuttall 1,000,000 votes
Smith 1,100 votes
Jones 1,000
Greens
Williams 200,000
Johnson 5,000
Let's assume UKIP were entitled to two seats under D'Hondt and the Greens none
Smith would be the second UKIP MEP, despite wining a mere 1,100 votes (and fewer than either of the Green candidates who failed to be elected)
STV is so much more efficient, in ensuring that all elected candidates must approach or exceed the the quota.
I think he's got a bigger issue with minimum alcohol pricing, his welcoming european friends are being very european .
I remember the day where tim claimed Sir James Goldsmith would save on the tax paid by his estate when he died.
Tax cuts for dead millionaires in the afterlife was apparently Con policy.