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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How a minor change to the electoral system could stop Farag
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How a minor change to the electoral system could stop Farage’s party from topping the polls in next year’s Euro elections?
There’s an intriguing move developing that could lead to a change in the way the EU elections are carried out resulting in an electoral system that’s less UKIP friendly.
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But open lists FTW.
You get some of Cammie's inner circle briefing the press about it, or a few friendly tory MPs, then it might be a runner. Until then it's an interesting hypothetical.
Would a bet not become void if the electoral system changed after the bet was placed? Is there anything in the T&Cs about this - especially if a change is made which is going to influence the result?
Anyway, it's only the LSE flying a kite so I'm just posing a theoretical question here.
I am sure if you hypothetically changed the policies of parties to reflect their opponents policies in many areas you could force a different outcome with Labour's main rival in the election being pushed back and the 3rd party improving.
I also note that although 4 scenarios were tested they only talk about 2. I wonder why?
Of course given that ERS is run by Katie Ghose (former Labour party researcher, recently failed Labour candidate and Chair of 'Yes To AV' a campaign which refused to work with UKIP despite their support of AV) and renouned for its left of centre views on democracy and a general disdain for anything Eurosceptic its impossible to take this article seriously.
As for the LSE team who did the 'study'?
I think this article by its leader tells you all you need to know......
http://placelux.wordpress.com/2011/12/09/victory-for-europe-disaster-for-britain/
This study would seem to be like using data provided by Tim Yeo as the basis for an objective analysis of wind farms. It's a rather predictable, given the authors, 'pigs might fly' study. File in bin......
A very young Gerald Howarth questions Jeremy Thorpe:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZprg04Od60
double-plus-hahaha as usual
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=10200887&cc=10153794
It therefore follows to bet the house on Labour first for the Euros!. Good luck to anyone who does :-)
No. Not you Mike ....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23444771
What you describe there is a trend from low to high, bottom left to top right!
"UKIP has been branded Europe’s laziest party after figures revealed its MEPs top the skivers’ league.
Leader Nigel Farage has the fifth worst attendance record out of all 752 MEPs.
His anti-European Union party sidekicks Godfrey Bloom and deputy leader Paul Nuttall, who each pocket more than £60,000 a year in Brussels salaries, are even lazier.
Mr Bloom is second only to Ireland’s Brian Crowley in missed votes — attending less than a third. Mr Nuttall sits fourth last, voting just 46% of the time. The figures, unearthed by the Mirror, mean UKIP has three of the top five laziest MEPs.
Overall, the anti-EU party’s 11 MEPs miss a third of all votes — double the European average.
The pro-Europe Lib Dems are the hardest-working British party in Brussels — attending 87% of votes.
The Greens come in next on 84.8%, Labour third on 82.7%, and the Tories second from bottom with an 80.4% attendance record.
Check out all the latest News, Sport & Celeb gossip at Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-branded-laziest-political-party-1936913#ixzz2a2CtHVAY
That’s good stuff which I'll file away.
If Farage does try for Westminster again then being dubbed Europe's "Fifth laziest MEP" is going to be chucked at him time and time again.
UKIP are able to operate like they do in Brussels because the electoral system means they aren't individually accountable.
I reckon 0.7% growth - and Labour are already calling it the 'wrong sort of growth'.
On that basis - its impossible to ever win the argument.
Colour me a bit sceptical about changes to the list system (though open lists would be an improvement) when even avid followers of politics struggle to name their MEP. The only ones I could name would be Dan Hannan, Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttal. The rest are just grey blobs in suits.
The Unite chief said the ongoing row over candidate selection had pushed the union’s relationship with Labour to breaking point"
Daily Mail
Daily Telegraph
Daily Express
The Sun
The Times
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/unite-chief-len-mccluskey-reignites-2087060#ixzz2a2JyrRLs
Non story, nothing to see...?
Most people would lose the will to live on a ballot featuring 50+ names, that is if they turn out to vote at all. As such this idea totally misses the point.
In important news, I saw a fox this morning when I was walking the dog.
Less importantly, I'm a bit sleepy and slightly puzzled by the way this would work. Vote for an individual rather than a party makes sense, but this is still PR, right? So, your vote might 'spill over' to another candidate of the same party?
PR remains a steaming pile of horseshit.
FPT: Thanks, Mr. Eagles.
FPT: Mr. Jessop, interesting thoughts on a potential 40C race. It's also worth noting that the track's not used much (presumably because it's rubbish) and that it'll improve dramatically over the course of the weekend. So, fastest in P1 may mean very little.
Loony Len
— Leftie union boss threatens Labour
— Rant at press for exposing 'vote fix'
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5032433/len-mccluskey-attack-labour.html#ixzz2a2MuuE4q
But I'm sceptical that it would change the election. Prompting for "what would you do if..." (is that what was done here?) is like saying "would you vote Tory if they were led by Boris?" It encourages people to change their answer in a way that may not be realistic.
But this is not new - just the bandwagon jumping lefties who lapped it up when Brown borrowed like a fiend.
Haven't heard of any of them.
Just like the lack of enthusiasm for going back to the old system of postal voting. Nothing to do with promting democracy---everything to do with narrow political advantage.
Whatever you look at, it is hard to be impressed with the current crop of politicians.
It's absurd.
Labour - the pointless party.
But not to get too churlish - we need this growth to help UK crack on and get working.
Noticed that Spanish unemployment has dropped by a whole %. Stronger PMIs from the eurozone too. Interesting stuff.
I have often thought that if I was a politician, an MEP would be the best job.
Decent pay and perks, virtually no case work (IWHT) and the amount of scrutiny of my activities not far above the square root of sod all. What's not to like?
On more sombre news the death toll in Spain is shocking -79 dead - a third of those on the train.
Labour MPs are still advocating a cut in VAT - and that's it as far as I can tell.
If the figures are encouraging on growth, Labour will need to sharpen up their act pronto. It's becoming a trend.
What I find interesting are several commentators noting that Labour's continued pessimism and carping is switching voters off - they want to believe in green shoots.
I remember when Blair was forever rubbishing the Tories during his early days as leader, it got really wearing and it turned me off him for quite a while until he changed the message.
In Italy it's difficult as in Euro elections we have the chance to put down more than one preference.
But here's the stats for local elections in my municipalities (where there's just 1 preference available):
List 1: 74 out of 281 votes indicated the specific local council candidate..26.3%
List 2: 521/1411....36.9%
List 3: 155/501...30.9%
List 4: 504/1319...38.2%
Mind you, the overall turnout was 64.14%....in your Euro elections it would be 30% if it's a good day, so the reduced turnout could indicate more informed people brothering to vote and an higher chance they scrutinize single candidates
And no, I'm not a member of his party or his family!
- wrong sort of growth
- its only doing what it should have done already
- its not as high as it was
- its because people aren't saving as much
- its not really growth as people aren't earning as much
The creativity applied to this is remarkable.
For the most recent ultimate British royal sacrifice we have to go to Prince George, Duke of Kent, who was killed on active service in 1942.
I gather Ed Balls is in the USA at some event - so let's see what he has to contribute in between seminars.
Housing bubble is your new meme, There isn't one that is noticeable where I live , if anything prices are static..but then again just about every meme you have has no basis in fact . its a lot of hot air and wasted kdp's.
Van Something
the UKIP to Con defector
Sturdy
Howitt
Duff
A Kipper
Who are the 7 you recognize overall? I am sure Hannan, Farage...I guess Andreasen....Cashman if you watched Eastenders 20 years ago....
Whilst I agree it appears Ozzie is trying to stoke a housing boomlet pre-election in 2014/15 which is 'questionable' in my view, that is still to come.
Tim appears to be spinning this ludicrous line of a new housing boom (which has passed me by which is odd as an IFA/mortgage adviser) for today's GDP number, just how much of the growth we will hear is he seriously ascribing to that?
It's piffle.
The first stage of help to buy only kicked in April 2013, second part Jan 2014....
It's a feeble economic analysis.... .... for now....
All candidates
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2013/07/full-list-of-would-be-mep-candidates-in-all-regions-theres-still-time-to-use-your-vote.html
Some interesting races IMO:
- which incumbent will be ranked third in London. It's probably a losing position. With all council elections on the same day, turnout in Labour's inner boroughs won't be as low as it could have been in 2009.
- which will be the destiny of the 2 sitting MEPs who didn't get automatic reselection? UKIP defector David Campbell Bannerman in East and Richard Ashworth in SE. ConHome suggest Andreasen is not campaigning anymore. DCB and Ashworth would still have a chance if they top the open ballot.
- the best regions for new candidates are IMO East Midlands and Yorkshire where they can replace the defecting incumbents. Except if a newcomer defeats DCB and Ashworth, in other regions, I can't see the Tories winning more seats than incumbents restanding.
- the great majority of incumbents standing again are safe. I can't see Con not holding 2 seats in North West (now 3), South East (currently 4), South West (3), East (3) and West Midlands (3) or holding a single seat in East Midlands (now 2) and Yorkshire (2). The top 2 in London shouldn't have problems either.
All tim needs to do is find the stats on how much equity releasing is taking place now, compare it to the years 2003-8 and that will tell us whether this new spin has any basis at all in fact.... I predict he won't find it.
Now 2014/15 - that could be different.
GDP numbers = historic / past tense
Help to buy 'ramp' = to come / future tense
Hope that's helped you.
Since AD1000 who of our monarchs have been killed in battle ?
Now - he's seen the light - GDP isn't the be all and end all.
He's either seen the light or a whining hypocrite.
If the CoE can use churches and its school premises as branch outlets for small loans at better rates - great.
Thank you for catching up on this whole 'tense' thing. I actually may agree with you to some extent - but not yet. You can't tar this morning's GDP numbers with it.
This potential bubble also depends what happens to the supply side (and there are some encouraging signs too there if you look at the listed house builders) but this will only show in 2014/15 so your meme this morning is (for now) = Boxxxcks.
I've always said that the GDP figures are a lot less important then those on borrowing, real wage growth, unemployment and the balance of trade. Hopefully Osborne agrees, though his attempt to puff up another house price bubble is not particularly reassuring.
But your professional experience it merely anecdotes ;^ )
Harold and Richard III are the most obvious ones.
Duff I recognise, but I'm not as sure.
Harold Godwinson - 1066 Battle of Hastings
Richard III - 1485 Battle of Bosworth
The BBC secretly gave an executive a payoff of about half a million pounds even though he resigned after being criticised over a documentary trailer which misrepresented the Queen.
Peter Fincham, former Controller of BBC1, wrongly told the press that the trailer showed the Queen walking out of a photo session in 2007 “in a huff”.
Mr Fincham, now ITV’s director of television, was told a few hours later that the trailer gave a misleading impression but a correcting statement was not put out until the next day. The delay meant that false claims of the Queen “storming out” were reported by the BBC and many other media organisations.
Mr Fincham resigned three months later after being criticised in a report into the affair. At the time the BBC refused to say whether or not he had received a payoff.
RT @Chrisitv: Etonian, palace dwelling Archbishop says "we are putting our money where our mouth is" Will church give to credit unions?
The CoE have assets of what? Several billion?
Prince Nicholas Palmer - August 2013 Battle of Broxtowe
If by ‘our’ you mean Scottish & English, rather than just British,then:
Kennith II (Scotland) 1005
Duncan I (Scotland) 1040
Macbeth Scotland) 1057
Harold (England) 1066
William I (England) 1078
Malcolm III (Scotland) 1093
Richard the Lion Heart (England) 1199
James II (Scotland) 1460
Richard II (England) 1485
James II (Scotland) 1488
James IV (Scotland) 1513.
He was shot and killed by an archer whilst laying siege to a castle in France, I think.
That's definitely military action, but not a battle.
The other factor that the polling doesn't take into account is that The Euros are a risk free way for the voters to express their displeasure at the government of the day.
18% seems high.
On a similar note, I have my doubts about the whole exercise (even leaving aside the political agenda of those commissioning the research). Would people really spend as much time considering the options as they did in the research? Most people don't vote at Euroelections and I would be extremely surprised if many of those who do, do so based on anything other than (1) expressing a general vote for or against a particular party, (2) registering support for the headline policy of a particular party.
The danger of research like this for the Tories is that it encourages activists to believe that if only the party adopted (even) more Eurosceptic policies, voters would come flocking back. Perhaps at the 2014 election some would. For 2015, I suspect it would be the other way.
#GDP grew by 0.6% in Q2 2013, with all main sectors of the economy experiencing growth bit.ly/1b7CVDr
Toby Young @toadmeister
.@edballsmp You're not singing, you're not singing, you're not singing any more. You're not singing any more #GE2015 #winning
0.6% GDP Growth in Q2 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnQj8zBnY7g
Nice one George.
Every week I spend six hours of my life working for a support group that helps the families of those in prison.
Some of these families have taken up payday loans.
Payday loans are wicked and the APRs are higher the 4,000% oft quoted.
Payday lenders allow their customers to roll over their loans each month. So they only pay the interest, so on a 400 pound loan, they pay around 100 quid a month.
Some lenders allow upto 12 deferrals, so a 400 quid loan becomes 1600 repayment.
Wicked, wicked practices on the very vulnerable in society.
Usury is a crime, kudos to Stella Creasey for taking them on.
Key points
- Users are reminded that figures in this release are estimates and are on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6% in Q2 2013 compared with Q1 2013.
- All four main industrial groupings within the economy (agriculture, production, construction and services) increased in Q2 2013 compared with Q1 2013.
- The largest contribution to Q2 2013 GDP growth came from services; these industries increased by 0.6% contributing 0.48 percentage points to the 0.6% increase in GDP.
- There was also an upward contribution (0.08 percentage points) from production; these industries rose by 0.6%, with manufacturing increasing by 0.4% following negative growth of 0.2% in Q1 2013.
- In Q2 2013, output in the construction industry was estimated to have increased by 0.9% compared with Q1 2013. In Q1 2013 construction output was at its lowest level since Q1 2001.
- Before the sharp fall in output in 2008 and 2009 the economy peaked in Q1 2008. From peak to trough the economy shrank by 7.2%. In Q2 2013, GDP was estimated to be 3.3% below the peak in Q1 2008.
- GDP was 1.4% higher in Q2 2013 compared with the same quarter a year ago. Q2 2012 contained an extra bank holiday for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee. Users should therefore show caution when interpreting the quarter on same quarter a year ago growth in Q2 2013.
- The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced using the output approach to measuring GDP and is published less than four weeks after the end of the quarter to which it relates. At this stage the data content of this estimate is around 44% of the total required for the final output based estimate. This includes good information for the first two months of the quarter, with an estimate for the third month which takes account of early returns to the monthly business survey of 44,000 businesses (which typically has a response rate of between 30-50% at this point in time). The estimate is therefore subject to revisions as more data become available, but between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP, revisions are typically small (around 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points), with the frequency of upward and downward revisions broadly equal.
' Terry Scuoler of Engineering Employers Fed @BBCr4today warns expected rise in GDP based on consumption and debt'
So exactly the same as under New Labour, at least for 8 out of 13 years.
What happened to the triple dip you were banging on about?
first time since q3 2010 that all 4 sectors grown in same quarter
I now despise Osborne as much as Brown. And he is impliedly betting that interest rates won't move up between now and GE 2015, which is brave.