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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Republican ticket to give Hilary Clinton nightmares?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Republican ticket to give Hilary Clinton nightmares?
It is fair to say that the race for the Republican 2016 nomination is an odd one.
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It should also be pointed out that going further back at this stage in 2000 Al Gore led the Democratic polls and George W Bush the GOP polls and in 1996 Bob Dole also led on the GOP side. It should also be noted that in 2008 Obama was second to Hillary at this stage and Romney was behind or ahead of Cain depending on what poll you looked at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2012_presidential_primaries
In 2008 of course Giulani voters simply went to McCain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3PofPbm9fQ
The idea that a Republican ticket needs "northern" balance doesn't make much sense. There aren't really votes up for grabs in the coastal North East region that Christie represents. The only geographic balance Rubio might need is to get someone from the industrial Midwest, to try to break into Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.
More important would probably be gender balance, or even ethnic balance to reassure the white working class. He would also want someone who can show themselves to be disciplined and stay in someone else's shadow, which isn't Christie.
On the whole, I agree - I think a Rubio/Christie ticket would be formidable. Just one point - I think either would beat Clinton quite easily even if it wasn't a joint ticket between the two. She wins against the others not because she is good, but because they are terrible.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34756063
What numpty broadcaster has decided to buy this sack of shit show !!!
What a burk. Part of the big problem we've had with integration in this country is that people in positions of power don't want to tell ethnic minorities things they don't want to hear.
I think a policy of 'contact' is the right one, but not for the reasons the article says: that familiarity means people realise we're all alike. I've actually found it can go the other way. I've travelled all over the world, and in many cases it causes me to have a more positive opinion of a group, as in most African countries I've been to. But in other places, if there are genuinely concerning cultural differences, like in the Middle East, it makes me feel more alienated from the people that live in them. No, I think a policy of encouraging contact is the right one is because it will cause minority groups to become more like the dominant British culture, and to drop the more concerning misogyny, authoritarianism, conspiracy theories etc with time. What''s problematic is when you indulge these practices, such as the academy in question segregating boys and girls for play times.
On the whole, I agree - I think a Rubio/Christie ticket would be formidable. Just one point - I think either would beat Clinton quite easily even if it wasn't a joint ticket between the two. She wins against the others not because she is good, but because they are terrible.
Yes, there was a formatting error and I've updated that section so it has the link
When will Corbyn's deputy commissar's fate be known?
I gather he can remain in his job, even if ejected from the Party. That such a scenario is plausible just shows how silly Labour has become.
Rubio could pull off a historic ticket - minorities on top and bottom and male/female - by having either Nikki Haley or Susana Martinez as his VP candidate. If neither bring enough foreign and defence policy expertise, he could always recruit Condoleezza.
As I've said many times, I do not believe that Carson (or Trump, or Fiorina) will get the nod. But equally, this is not the story that will kill Carson's candidacy.
I am making sure I have Ted Cruz covered in my betting. If Donald Trump fades he looks best placed to collect the angry Republican vote. He would also be more formidable as a candidate than most of his rivals.
Carson has answered that question - or rather volunteered it - at age 14 following the 'stabbing incident' through finding God. Please try to keep up.
Hardly a surprise, given a large part of the peace talks strategy was to use membership of the EU as a way of diminishing the importance of the whole issue of NI's status (either within the UK or united with the ROI). Thus those against the old status quo would favour the EU, and those for it would be against.
Thanks TSE.
Anti-euro Communist party say 'conditions are in place' to form historic triple Left coalition and bring down centre-right"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11980629/Communists-ready-to-assume-power-in-Portugal-and-topple-conservative-government.html
Cruz 19%
Trump 18%
Rubio 14%
Jeb 12%
Undecided 10%
In NH Carson voters split
Rubio 23%
Fiorina 17%
Trump 15%
Nationally they split
Fiorina 24%
Trump 17%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 12%
https://twitter.com/LPDonovan?lang=en-gb
"I gather he can remain in his job, even if ejected from the Party. That such a scenario is plausible just shows how silly Labour has become."
For a political party (at least in opposition) to appoint (retain) a political adviser who has been expelled from that party for serious misconduct would so far as I am aware be unprecedented. Certainly it would be crazy for Corbyn to even attempt to do it. It would show utter contempt for the Labour party's rules - and not least, would surely seriously annoy Hilary Benn.
We have about 5 weeks before attention switches to Christmas. After that, everyone will get much more serious.
They were at the start of the war and throughout the war the service that kept the food, supplies and materials flowing into Gt Britain. They suffered the highest casualty loss in WW2 of any single service.
Lest we forget.....
Wall Stret Journal story is here http://www.wsj.com/articles/ben-carsons-past-faces-deeper-questions-1446861864
Looking forward to those impartial BBC reports from now on.
Never mind the Biblical literalism etc (he is a creationist I believe, which would be scary in a President TBH), he clearly has ignored the much more salient and unarguable fact that the pyramids are solid objects with only small corridors and chambers in them, so you wouldn't exactly fit a lot of grain into them.
In any other country nobody would be taking him seriously as a contender for a presidential role. American politics. Go figure.
Merchant seamen suffered severely in the war at various stages, although thanks to breaking the Enigma codes the entire American & Canadian army was transferred across the Atlantic without a single loss.
Their losses were some 30,000 dead (I think WW1 losses were about 15,000) . It is a bit miserable I know to put various groups in a list but Bomber Command lost 55,500 dead out of a force of 125,000.
It seems incredible to believe that the GOP primary wont get serious at some point, rather than the current clown-fest, but that point seems to get put back every month.
The casualty rate in the merchant navy was confirmed as a minimum of 32,000 of 145,000, still a staggering 22%, which Mark Arnold-Forster noted 'was comparable to the casualty rate suffered by those forces assigned to particularly desperate missions'. (source: Mark Arnold-Forster, The World At War, London 2001, p. 67). To put it in context, the numbers actually killed at St Nazaire were around 27% of the total, although that does not include numbers taken prisoner. Arnold-Forster compared them to the Chindits, fighting behind enemy lines in Burma.
It is generally accepted among historians that the merchant navy did indeed suffer the worst casualty rate of British forces. However, I have very seldom seen detailed statistical analysis to back that up. What I can say, for definite, is that those on the Arctic Convoys suffered far worse than even Bomber Command and barely better than the poor souls who were slung at Dieppe for no apparent reason and 75% of which failed to return, which is why it was and remains scandalous that for so many years they did not have a dedicated campaign medal.
Incidentally, you may find this interesting:
http://www.rafinfo.org.uk/BCWW2Losses/
Bomber command certainly took a huge loss close to 45, 000. I suppose it is debatable which took the worse loss. The point is here none should be sidelined. Their service throughout enabled the war to be continued and then taken to the enemy.
Certainly the Battle of Britain pilots saved the day as well. It should be remembered that the planes needed fuel and this was brought in by the merchant navy at considerable loss. A small footnote that is rarely if ever mentioned.
Events exactly 98 years ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution
Unhelpfully from my point of view, OCR calls it 'November' and AQA 'October.'
25th October "old style" (ie. Julian Calendar).
I believe it took many years to have the red ensign hung at the cenotaph. It is now of course. The Merchant Navy memorial at Tower Hill is worth a visit if you happen to be passing by.
wasis a scandal the contribution to the war effort of people like your grandfather, or my old friend Alec Spencer, under horrendous conditions and against what must have seemed near-hopeless odds, was not properly recognised in the 1940s when they made it.I stand corrected on the bomber command number.
The other thing this suggested pact would do is bring in the holy grail of the left - voting reform.
I thought it might be interesting to work out what the result of the last election would have been under PR if all votes were cast the same. Most PR systems have a threshold of 3-5%.
I have used the standard UK regions and applied a threshold of 3% to each. I have assumed Wales would get the same number of seats as under FPTP. The results I got were as follows:
SW - C26,L10,U8,LD8,G3
SE - C43,L16,U13,LD8,G4
London - C26,L32,U6,LD6,G3
Eastern - C29,L13,U9,LD5,G2
E Mids - C21,L15,U7,LD3
W Mids - C25,L20,U9,LD3,G2
Yorks - C18,L21,U9,LD4,G2
NW - C24,L34,U10,LD5,G2
NE - C7,L14,U5,LD2,G1
Wales - C11,L15,U6,LD3,PC5
Scotland - C9, L15, LD5, SNP30
NI - DUP5,SF5,UUP3, SDLP3, AP2
That would give a UK total as follows:
Con 239 (-91)
Lab 205 (-27)
UKIP 82 (+81)
LD 52 (+44)
SNP 30 (-26)
Green 19 (+18)
Plaid 5 (+2)
DUP 5 (-3)
SF 5(+1)
UUP (3+1)
SDLP 3 (nc)
Alliance 2(+2)
So Cons would be the biggest losers but Lab and SNP would also lose out. The big winners would be UKIP and the LDs.
Contrary to the wishes of the left, no left alliance would be possible. The only realistic deal would be Con+UKIP+NI unionists
This number of killed is very high, but we should be careful about equating casualties and people not coming back with assuming they are all killed.
There were a number of reasons for the Dieppe raid but what it did put in motion was the idea of the temporary Mulberry harbours since it showed that a port could not be captured direct. In the event a large number of supplies were landed straight over the beach after D Day.
At various times in WW2 an individual event resulted in high losses -- HMS Hood sinking for instance. And Renown, Repulse.
Lets not forget hundreds of Americans drowned practising for D Day.
Fortunately most people bar historians ignore local dates, and historians have little use for Julian Day Numbers!
ISTR NASA cheats by having no dates before ?1600? or so.
The Christie thing is ludicrous, the man who is HATED (with capital letters) because of a very very long list of things he did in N.Jersey where he is governor there for 6 years.
Where do I start?
He supported Obama in 2012 (republicans hate him for that).
He's a moderate (conservatives hate him for that).
He's incompetent on economic and financial matters as he drove N.Jersey to the brink of bankruptcy and raided pensions (everyone and especially pensioners hate him for that).
The result of all this is that he is one of the most unpopular republicans in america and even his state hates him:
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/10/christies_nj_favorable_ratings_hover_at_historic_l.html#incart_river
Only a complete fool would think that Chris Christie ever had a chance, because his record absolutely sucks.
I will boycott Keiran's articles from now on.
Goodnight.
And, that's a horrendous casualty rate.
HMS Ulysees left a huge impression on me as a teenager. But I thought bomber command suffered the worst. 55% mortality rate for aircrew and only 27% surviving a full tour.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Bomber_Command#Casualties
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/663053217811558400
Christie has indeed made enemies. But there are only three really natural politicians in the GOP field - Rubio, Christie and Huckabee. So, while Christie always has, as you've said, been a very long shot, with Walker and Bush out of the running, all it takes is for Rubio to falter badly and the Establishment will have to choose between Kasich and Christie. Can't rule him out completely.
Trust accountants to be stuck in the past...
http://www.ebs.ltd.uk/news/why-does-the-uk-tax-year-end-on-5th-april/