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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Night hawks is now open
To emulate Blair, Ed Miliband will have to stop imitating him/ Labour’s leader is brave and principled – but falls down as a future prime minister in the public projection of personality
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Len McLuskey knows it
Today , he is officially been announced as Prince George of Cambridge. Maybe, some in the media know a thing or two.
Len McLuskey knows it
Len is giving Ed an open goal. Pity, you don't know that.
Maybe, you can tell us how many seats the Tories will win in Scotland in 2015.
Guess the Labour lead is steady or up, then.
F1: as (rather obviously) predicted by me, Mercedes have concerns over heat in Hungary:
http://www.espn.co.uk/mercedes/motorsport/story/117659.html
When will they ever learn ?
Even if Dave and Sam played Doctor and Nurse in the NHS, the Tories will still lose by 25 points on the NHS. Like it or not, Labour created the NHS. The public instinctively trusts Labour with their NHS compared to the Tories.
Michael Gove really needs to get out more if he is convinced about 2015.
(if you vote Labour)
Of course, that is true. To modernise, appeal to floating voters in the centre, and win that long-lost majority, the Tories need to be trusted on the NHS (necessary but not sufficient). And David Cameron came so close, on both accounts.
That is why Dave's lies and broken promises about the NHS were so devastating for his party. "Same old Tories, not to be trusted".
Actually, did Cameron lie? Or was he just not on top of what his shadow/ministers were up to when it came to the insane top-down reorganisation disaster? Who knows, the impact is the same.
I did put a warning against number 3, and in hindsight I should have put a warning against number 23 as well
Tut, tut - "Ice Ice Baby" is a 90s song not an 80s song!!
'Twas #1 in Nov 1990.
Vanilla Ice
[Enters chart] 24 Nov 90, [UK #1] Ice Ice Baby [also US #1], [highest UK] #1, [weeks in UK Top 75=] 13
Number one for 4 weeks from 1 Dec 1990
From what you have seen or heard, do you think the last Labour government did or did not deliberately cover up failings at NHS hospitals?
Did cover them up - the last government knew about failing hospitals, but covered them up for political reasons: 41%
But surely he's not so crap that wouldn't have, you know, found out what Tory policies actually were on the NHS?
But as I say, it doesn't matter whether Cameron is a cynical liar, stupid and arrogant, or merely crap - the damage to the Tories on the NHS is done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o41A91X5pns
Which party, if any, do you trust the most to deal with the issue of the NHS?
None of them: 35
Labour: 29
Con: 19
George I - German who couldn't speak English, and effectively handed over his powers to a Prime Minister
George II - Short tempered and had more mistresses than achievements.
George III - Madder than a a box of Frogs and lost us America
George IV - Just read what the Duke of Wellington said about him
George V - The first decent King called George
George VI - One of the finest Kings this country has ever produced, defeated his personal demons and led the country through the abdication crisis and world war II
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 3m
Calling Mr Gove
Do you want a wager on your CON maj GE2015 prediction reported in Telegraph? http://goo.gl/YaDru1 pic.twitter.com/CZCie66KQa
Weak, weak, weak.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Telegraph/status/360139253935636480/photo/1
Edited extra bit: off for some supper, but I shall endeavour to check your answer tomorrow.
Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov
@Sun_Politics
Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov
"He was the worst man he ever fell in with his whole life, the most selfish, the most false, the most ill-natured, the most entirely without one redeeming quality"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HfBSK5u25Y
Tory/UKIP 46
Labour 39
OR
Coalition 43
Labour 39
I bet Cameron doesn't like doing all the PR stuff anymore than Blair or Brown or Miliband or anyone liked/likes it. The fact of the matter is that these leading poiticians live in a 24hr news era where 90% of the public couldn't name a cabinet or shadow cabinet member even if you tattoo'ed the name on their arses. They are appealing to an electorate through TV glimpses and subliminal images, knowing that the attention span out there is virtually zero.
Look at Brown. He was crap on telly, crap at thinking on his feet, and as much as I couldn't stand the man, probably cleverer and more deeply thoughful than the lot of them. But his PR stuff was shite, his TV manner was shite, he couldn't act the part and therefore the electorate got shot of him.
Any politician that doesn't engage in all this photo-opportunity malarkey and - among the nerdy politics-watchers, the snide remarks about the shallowness of it all - sadly won't even get their campaigns off the ground.
T'is just the way it is. That's why Putin goes on telly wrestling crocodiles with his hands tied to his feet.
I do wonder whether this tactic from Murdoch's mob will help their Tories, though. Or whether it mostly doesn't make a blind bit of difference.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dettingen
I don't know if I'm a d*ck for posting this because I'm too out there to know what's cool and what's not these days, but this music-editing and singing boffin Kurt Schneider does some seriously talented stuff with his buddies on Youtube.
The smiling weirds me out though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6y1aOg_UO_A
As to the Lab share, for the rest of 2012 42-3 was usual with YouGov, 38-9 or so now.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
Basically, expect slightly reduced reliability if it is very hot. In the 2005 Bahrain GP, at similar temperatures to those expected in Hungary, there were eight retirements, all mechanical. At the previous race that year there were just two mechanical failures (both BAR-Hondas), and at the next one only four. At the 2006 Bahrain GP the next year, there were just four failures in the cooler temperatures.
I'd have to dig deeper to get some more data. Waving my finger in the air, if it is that hot I'd expect the top teams to dial things back to gain extra reliability, whilst those with less wriggle room will not. At a pure guess, this may lead to slower teams doing better in the shorter qualifying runs, but having blown engines / hydraulics in the race.
As ever, just guesses ...
This very unpopular coalition government,you would think the only opposition would be 15 to 20 point leads in front,4 point lead tonight - *Snigger*
#twitterfail
How's that non-story doing btw?
If you take London out of that equation the figure must be close to 50%.
Baccara's YES SIR, I CAN BOOGIE was number 1 when I was born in 1977.
LOOOOOL. A one-hit wonder with a spectacularly bad video. Which makes it kind of ironic that I grew up a bit anal about music and read/listened to/studied everything there was to know about the Beatles and the 60s and pschydelia. Often partaking in lots of psychedelia myself on weekends and waking up in obscure places with no shoes on.
All changed now, of course. Ahem.
Labour will poll 30% to 33% (using todays data point including Scotland)
Unless the UKIP dies and the Tories hit 41 or 42% this puts Milliband into Downing St, everything else is just fluff.
He just needs Len to write a few policies for the blank sheet, for the Tories to keep banging on about failures of care under Labour in the NHS, and he is well on his way to fulfilling the Foot/Kinnock destiny...
http://musicruinedmylife.blogspot.co.uk/
Easy enough to have a more detailed look with all the polling.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Silly season or not that's enough polls showing movement if not an outright trend now.
Of course the fact that the swivel-eyed loons aren't running around like headless chickens over Europe and immigration any more might just have something to do with that. You will be able to see the temporary May locals bounce for the kippers melting away in the all pollster graph. Same thing will happen before and after the EU elections.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Source :Wikipedia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68db9iial_U
Although I'm not sure I should admit to that ... ;-)
No wonder you are into trains?!?!?!?
'Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov'
Yet another rogue poll,can't be right after all that I love the NHS Labour stuff.
Everyone remembers the Christmas hit - but they were proper good.
It was really Lord North who threw away the American colonies.
At the moment the left is cursed with some pretty moronic advocates, and politicians who surrender territory to the right. Meanwhile there are some fairly sharp people advocating for the right, and they have tenacious politicians prepared to fight a long war.
It was their first number one, so I must be very old.
I see tim is still in the denial phase...
The epoch we are in for the foreseeable future is one where we need to earn more money than we spend.
I have no horse in this race, but my read of the numbers is that if the UKIP poll >5% Labour wins on 36%. The vote distribution and polling tells us this.
Labour hit 35% in the polls a month after the coalition was formed - before cuts, broken promises, joke budgets or anything. No party losing an election has ever had such a bounce before. SeanT is right to predict a hung Parliament but unless the Tories can eat into that solid Labour 35% - the most consistent feature of the polls for the last three years - it's likely Labour will win the most seats, will do some kind of deal with the LDs and the Tories will kick Dave and George into touch and descend into bitter recrimination. Their opposition to AV may well turn out to be one of the stupidest moves in modern British politics.
The first #1 I can actually remember from TOTP is "These Boots Were Made For Walking" by Nancy Sinatra.
Former President George H.W. Bush shaved his head on Tuesday, supporting a two-year-old with leukemia whose father is part of the 89-year-old's Secret Service detail.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57595370/george-h.w-bush-shaves-head-for-2-year-old-cancer-patient/
Could the tories get the most votes, of course they could. But piling up 20,000 majorities in Gloucestershire isn't going to win them any more seats.