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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Night hawks is now open

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Night hawks is now open

To emulate Blair, Ed Miliband will have to stop imitating him/ Labour’s leader is brave and principled – but falls down as a future prime minister in the public projection of personality

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Comments

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    First tonight. He,he.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour’s leader is brave and principled
    No, he isn't. The public know it. The smarter Labour MPs know it.

    Len McLuskey knows it
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2013
    Yesterday some self appointed royalists on here wrote the the media were wrong in calling the new addition, Baby Cambridge.

    Today , he is officially been announced as Prince George of Cambridge. Maybe, some in the media know a thing or two.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    Labour’s leader is brave and principled
    No, he isn't. The public know it. The smarter Labour MPs know it.

    Len McLuskey knows it

    Len is giving Ed an open goal. Pity, you don't know that.

    Maybe, you can tell us how many seats the Tories will win in Scotland in 2015.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    No poll tweet from Murdoch's mob tonight.

    Guess the Labour lead is steady or up, then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Good evening, everyone.

    F1: as (rather obviously) predicted by me, Mercedes have concerns over heat in Hungary:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/mercedes/motorsport/story/117659.html
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Could you include a subtle warning when one of the links is to a Peter Oborne article? I'm thinking of something like "WARNING" flashing in neon pink next to the link.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2013
    FPT: One PBTory wrote a few days back that the recent report apparently "neutralised" Labour's lead on the NHS for 2015.

    When will they ever learn ?

    Even if Dave and Sam played Doctor and Nurse in the NHS, the Tories will still lose by 25 points on the NHS. Like it or not, Labour created the NHS. The public instinctively trusts Labour with their NHS compared to the Tories.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    That's a great set of links.

    Michael Gove really needs to get out more if he is convinced about 2015.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    surbiton said:

    FPT: One PBTory wrote a few days back that the recent report apparently "neutralised" Labour's lead on the NHS for 2015.

    When will they ever learn ?

    Even if Dave and Sam played Doctor and Nurse in the NHS, the Tories will still lose by 25 points on the NHS. Like it or not, Labour created the NHS. The public instinctively trusts Labour with their NHS compared to the Tories.

    NHS = Nightly Hearse Service

    (if you vote Labour)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    surbiton said:

    Yesterday some self appointed royalists on here wrote the the media were wrong in calling the new addition, Baby Cambridge.

    Today , he is officially been announced as Prince George of Cambridge. Maybe, some in the media know a thing or two.

    The media and I used the shorthand Baby Cambridge because we already knew the child would be HRH Name of Cambridge but clearly neither of those are official designations.



  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    surbiton said:

    The public instinctively trusts Labour with their NHS compared to the Tories.


    Of course, that is true. To modernise, appeal to floating voters in the centre, and win that long-lost majority, the Tories need to be trusted on the NHS (necessary but not sufficient). And David Cameron came so close, on both accounts.

    That is why Dave's lies and broken promises about the NHS were so devastating for his party. "Same old Tories, not to be trusted".

    Actually, did Cameron lie? Or was he just not on top of what his shadow/ministers were up to when it came to the insane top-down reorganisation disaster? Who knows, the impact is the same.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited July 2013

    Could you include a subtle warning when one of the links is to a Peter Oborne article? I'm thinking of something like "WARNING" flashing in neon pink next to the link.

    I may consider it in the future.

    I did put a warning against number 3, and in hindsight I should have put a warning against number 23 as well

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    @TSE

    Tut, tut - "Ice Ice Baby" is a 90s song not an 80s song!!

    'Twas #1 in Nov 1990.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    surbiton said:

    FPT: the Tories will still lose by 25 points on the NHS. Like it or not, Labour created the NHS. The public instinctively trusts Labour with their NHS compared to the Tories.

    Where are they today?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    @TSE

    Tut, tut - "Ice Ice Baby" is a 90s song not an 80s song!!

    'Twas #1 in Nov 1990.

    Nah, it was on an album released in the 80s.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    @TSE

    Tut, tut - "Ice Ice Baby" is a 90s song not an 80s song!!

    'Twas #1 in Nov 1990.

    Nah, it was on an album released in the 80s.
    But in the UK it only came to prominence in 1990. You should have said "Seminal 90s song meets the movies"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    @TSE

    Tut, tut - "Ice Ice Baby" is a 90s song not an 80s song!!

    'Twas #1 in Nov 1990.

    Nah, it was on an album released in the 80s.
    But in the UK it only came to prominence in 1990. You should have said "Seminal 90s song meets the movies"
    Updated it, just for you.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    edited July 2013
    I have the Guinness Book of British Hit Singles in front of me:

    Vanilla Ice
    [Enters chart] 24 Nov 90, [UK #1] Ice Ice Baby [also US #1], [highest UK] #1, [weeks in UK Top 75=] 13

    Number one for 4 weeks from 1 Dec 1990
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    carl said:

    surbiton said:

    The public instinctively trusts Labour with their NHS compared to the Tories.

    Same old Tories, not to be trusted".
    This week the Keogh report into 14 NHS hospital trusts across the country with higher than normal death rates was published, following the emergence of the Stafford NHS scandal earlier this year. The report found some serious failings and eleven trusts were placed in special measures.

    From what you have seen or heard, do you think the last Labour government did or did not deliberately cover up failings at NHS hospitals?

    Did cover them up - the last government knew about failing hospitals, but covered them up for political reasons: 41%
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    tim said:

    carl said:

    surbiton said:

    The public instinctively trusts Labour with their NHS compared to the Tories.


    Of course, that is true. To modernise, appeal to floating voters in the centre, and win that long-lost majority, the Tories need to be trusted on the NHS (necessary but not sufficient). And David Cameron came so close, on both accounts.

    That is why Dave's lies and broken promises about the NHS were so devastating for his party. "Same old Tories, not to be trusted".

    Actually, did Cameron lie? Or was he just not on top of what his shadow/ministers were up to when it came to the insane top-down reorganisation disaster? Who knows, the impact is the same.
    "As a Father" Dave was more interested in using his family to detox the Tory brand on the NHS.
    I don't think he knew nor cared what Lansley was actually up to, Lansley had given him his first job in the party and he left him to it.
    When the bill was proposed Dave didnt realise what it entailed, it was flagged up by the Treasury first as insane, then by the Lib Dems, after Letwin had approved it, as he had the poll tax.
    Cameron thought he could play the father card again until it was too late
    Maybe. We all know Cameron is (and more so in opposition) a "brand man", believing his own hype.

    But surely he's not so crap that wouldn't have, you know, found out what Tory policies actually were on the NHS?

    But as I say, it doesn't matter whether Cameron is a cynical liar, stupid and arrogant, or merely crap - the damage to the Tories on the NHS is done.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    @TSE

    Tut, tut - "Ice Ice Baby" is a 90s song not an 80s song!!

    'Twas #1 in Nov 1990.

    Nah, it was on an album released in the 80s.
    But in the UK it only came to prominence in 1990. You should have said "Seminal 90s song meets the movies"
    Updated it, just for you.
    Mucho thanks, TSE - I can "Relax" easier now :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    This was UK number 1 when Prince George's dad was born in 1982:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o41A91X5pns
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    A little reality check for our "the public only trusts labour with the NHS':

    Which party, if any, do you trust the most to deal with the issue of the NHS?

    None of them: 35
    Labour: 29
    Con: 19
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    The more I think about it, naming the Prince, George is a bad idea, not only because of Blackadder the Third, but historically Kings called George, have been bad for the country.

    George I - German who couldn't speak English, and effectively handed over his powers to a Prime Minister

    George II - Short tempered and had more mistresses than achievements.

    George III - Madder than a a box of Frogs and lost us America

    George IV - Just read what the Duke of Wellington said about him

    George V - The first decent King called George

    George VI - One of the finest Kings this country has ever produced, defeated his personal demons and led the country through the abdication crisis and world war II

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Oh dear, what I have started?

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3m

    Calling Mr Gove

    Do you want a wager on your CON maj GE2015 prediction reported in Telegraph? http://goo.gl/YaDru1 pic.twitter.com/CZCie66KQa
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tim said:


    His pollsters tell him they like the father stuff.

    Which is why Ed "I'm not a father. You can't prove it. Oh, wait..." Milband was bounced into admitting he was in fact, a father.

    Weak, weak, weak.
  • NextNext Posts: 826

    The more I think about it, naming the Prince, George is a bad idea, not only because of Blackadder the Third, but historically Kings called George, have been bad for the country.

    George I - German who couldn't speak English, and effectively handed over his powers to a Prime Minister

    George II - Short tempered and had more mistresses than achievements.

    George III - Madder than a a box of Frogs and lost us America

    George IV - Just read what the Duke of Wellington said about him

    George V - The first decent King called George

    George VI - One of the finest Kings this country has ever produced, defeated his personal demons and led the country through the abdication crisis and world war II

    Based on that trajectory, I think the correct response is: "Things. Can only get better."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Telegraph don't appear to think Charles will opt for the regnal George:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Telegraph/status/360139253935636480/photo/1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    edited July 2013
    Mr. Eagles, I checked Wikiquote (for both Wellington and George IV) but neither yielded the result. What did Wellington say?

    Edited extra bit: off for some supper, but I shall endeavour to check your answer tomorrow.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
    Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Great news for Ed

    @Sun_Politics
    Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Scott_P said:

    Great news for Ed

    @Sun_Politics
    Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov

    *Crying with laughter*

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Mr. Eagles, I checked Wikiquote (for both Wellington and George IV) but neither yielded the result. What did Wellington say?

    Edited extra bit: off for some supper, but I shall endeavour to check your answer tomorrow.

    The Duke of Wellington said of King George IV

    "He was the worst man he ever fell in with his whole life, the most selfish, the most false, the most ill-natured, the most entirely without one redeeming quality"
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    1977 before your time, TSE?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HfBSK5u25Y
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    carl said:

    No poll tweet from Murdoch's mob tonight.

    Guess the Labour lead is steady or up, then.

    You were saying?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Plato said:

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
    Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov

    YouGove/The Sunil on Wednesday:

    Tory/UKIP 46
    Labour 39

    OR

    Coalition 43
    Labour 39
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    @Grandiose, yes 1977 was before my time, but not by much.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    @Tim

    I bet Cameron doesn't like doing all the PR stuff anymore than Blair or Brown or Miliband or anyone liked/likes it. The fact of the matter is that these leading poiticians live in a 24hr news era where 90% of the public couldn't name a cabinet or shadow cabinet member even if you tattoo'ed the name on their arses. They are appealing to an electorate through TV glimpses and subliminal images, knowing that the attention span out there is virtually zero.

    Look at Brown. He was crap on telly, crap at thinking on his feet, and as much as I couldn't stand the man, probably cleverer and more deeply thoughful than the lot of them. But his PR stuff was shite, his TV manner was shite, he couldn't act the part and therefore the electorate got shot of him.

    Any politician that doesn't engage in all this photo-opportunity malarkey and - among the nerdy politics-watchers, the snide remarks about the shallowness of it all - sadly won't even get their campaigns off the ground.

    T'is just the way it is. That's why Putin goes on telly wrestling crocodiles with his hands tied to his feet.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    Oh dear the PB Tory overreaction thread arrives early with a surprisingly early tweet.

    They never learn do they.

    How's your non story doing?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @toadmeister: RT @harryph: Labour lead on @YouGov back down to 4% - Labour's product is pessimism and the public aren't buying it.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    carl said:

    No poll tweet from Murdoch's mob tonight.

    Guess the Labour lead is steady or up, then.

    You were saying?

    Lol!

    I do wonder whether this tactic from Murdoch's mob will help their Tories, though. Or whether it mostly doesn't make a blind bit of difference.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    OT - grim news from Spain with 35 dead reported in train derailment
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    George II odd fact: last monarch to personally command in battle. Dettingen I think (?). No idea if we won.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited July 2013
    5-day Lab lead average of 5.2 (5, 7, 3, 7, 4) is now beginning to overlap with quite a few of the worst weeks of the pre-2012 budget.period. I'll have a proper look this weekend, I think I forgot to save last time I checked fully. A difference appears to be lower Lab and Con shares now.



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    welshowl said:

    George II odd fact: last monarch to personally command in battle. Dettingen I think (?). No idea if we won.

    Yup it was that battle, and we won

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dettingen
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    carl said:

    carl said:

    No poll tweet from Murdoch's mob tonight.

    Guess the Labour lead is steady or up, then.

    You were saying?

    Lol!

    I do wonder whether this tactic from Murdoch's mob will help their Tories, though. Or whether it mostly doesn't make a blind bit of difference.
    They post it when it's "news" - while the leads were around ~8 there's no news in a 7 or a 9 - but a 4 does appear to be consistent with a narrowing lead. Of course the 'non story" being plastered over the front pages for a week has nowt to do with this....

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    George II odd fact: last monarch to personally command in battle. Dettingen I think (?). No idea if we won.

    Yup it was that battle, and we won

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dettingen
    I note you say he was short tempered and had more mistresses than achievements . Wow what an obituary! Not all bad this kinging lark is it :-)
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    O/T

    I don't know if I'm a d*ck for posting this because I'm too out there to know what's cool and what's not these days, but this music-editing and singing boffin Kurt Schneider does some seriously talented stuff with his buddies on Youtube.

    The smiling weirds me out though.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6y1aOg_UO_A
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited July 2013
    @tim If I did a ten-poll average, I'm confident that it would be lowest Lab lead since the 2012 budget. (8, 9, 11, 6, 6, 5, 7, 3, 7, 4) => 6.6%?

    As to the Lab share, for the rest of 2012 42-3 was usual with YouGov, 38-9 or so now.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971

    Good evening, everyone.

    F1: as (rather obviously) predicted by me, Mercedes have concerns over heat in Hungary:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/mercedes/motorsport/story/117659.html

    If the temperatures are as high as advertised, it may be one of the hottest GP's ever. Brakes may be an issue at the high-downforce Hungaroring, and engine reliability may also suffer at the high temperatures (unless they dial down the engines). As for the tyres... who knows?

    Basically, expect slightly reduced reliability if it is very hot. In the 2005 Bahrain GP, at similar temperatures to those expected in Hungary, there were eight retirements, all mechanical. At the previous race that year there were just two mechanical failures (both BAR-Hondas), and at the next one only four. At the 2006 Bahrain GP the next year, there were just four failures in the cooler temperatures.

    I'd have to dig deeper to get some more data. Waving my finger in the air, if it is that hot I'd expect the top teams to dial things back to gain extra reliability, whilst those with less wriggle room will not. At a pure guess, this may lead to slower teams doing better in the shorter qualifying runs, but having blown engines / hydraulics in the race.

    As ever, just guesses ...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Midterm news -

    This very unpopular coalition government,you would think the only opposition would be 15 to 20 point leads in front,4 point lead tonight - *Snigger*
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    Sounds like a horrible train crash in Spain.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071


    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3m
    Calling Mr Gove
    Do you want a wager on your CON maj GE2015 prediction reported in Telegraph

    Is that how this Twitter thingy works then? If you don't know the right name you just say "Calling..." and it gets there automagically? Wow.

    #twitterfail

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    carl said:

    carl said:

    No poll tweet from Murdoch's mob tonight.

    Guess the Labour lead is steady or up, then.

    You were saying?

    Lol!

    I do wonder whether this tactic from Murdoch's mob will help their Tories, though. Or whether it mostly doesn't make a blind bit of difference.
    They post it when it's "news" - while the leads were around ~8 there's no news in a 7 or a 9 - but a 4 does appear to be consistent with a narrowing lead. Of course the 'non story" being plastered over the front pages for a week has nowt to do with this....

    They post it when the Labour lead narrows.
    Hence a tweet on a 3 point from 7 but not vice versa.
    That's just a fact.
    If the average lead is 7 a lead of 7 is not "news"...

    How's that non-story doing btw?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    46% for Tory + UKIP must be a serious concern for the chattering classes.

    If you take London out of that equation the figure must be close to 50%.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited July 2013
    @Sunil

    Baccara's YES SIR, I CAN BOOGIE was number 1 when I was born in 1977.

    LOOOOOL. A one-hit wonder with a spectacularly bad video. Which makes it kind of ironic that I grew up a bit anal about music and read/listened to/studied everything there was to know about the Beatles and the 60s and pschydelia. Often partaking in lots of psychedelia myself on weekends and waking up in obscure places with no shoes on.

    All changed now, of course. Ahem.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
    Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov

    YouGove/The Sunil on Wednesday:

    Tory/UKIP 46
    Labour 39

    OR

    Coalition 43
    Labour 39
    Very definite signs of serious narrowing now. ICM and two Yougovs. We can no longer dismiss all these as outliers.

    Irritable bowel syndrome at Labour HQ tonight.
    Labour share isnt moving.
    With Labour on 38/39 Dave needs what, 41 to stand a chance of keeping his job?
    We're now at the beginning of a proper economic upturn (even the eurozone produced decent data today), and what we both agree is a deliberately engineered feelgood houseprice boom.

    It it entirely feasible that these could deliver Cameron a plurality in 2015, maybe even a tiny majority.

    Six months ago I thought Miliband was an almost certain victor at the next GE. I'm not at all sure now.
    The last thing Cameron wants is a tiny majority, his party will string him up when he campaigns for a Yes vote in Europe.

    If he was a smart politician he wouldn't have let the boundary changes slip through his fingers.
    labour would be worrying if he'd realised how important that was for him
    Scotland will deliver him a bonus after the Yes vote.

    Labour will poll 30% to 33% (using todays data point including Scotland)
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited July 2013
    I guess the fundamental in this and all other recent polls is the depressed share of the LD vote. A serious chunk of the 2010 LD vote has decamped to Labour. This looks fixed and isn't moving. The old SDP has lost faith with Clegg and gone home to Labour. The left is united.

    Unless the UKIP dies and the Tories hit 41 or 42% this puts Milliband into Downing St, everything else is just fluff.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    How's your non story doing?

    Ed is CRUSHING it!

    He just needs Len to write a few policies for the blank sheet, for the Tories to keep banging on about failures of care under Labour in the NHS, and he is well on his way to fulfilling the Foot/Kinnock destiny...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    If you have not yet encountered it you may enjoy browsing this music blog:

    http://musicruinedmylife.blogspot.co.uk/
    Fenster said:

    @Sunil

    Baccara's YES SIR, I CAN BOOGIE was number 1 when I was born in 1977.

    LOOOOOL. A one-hit wonder with a spectacularly bad video. Which makes it kind of ironic that I grew up a bit anal about music and read/listened to/studied everything there was to know about the Beatles and the 60s and pschydelia. Often partaking in lots of psychedelia myself on weekends and waking up in obscure places with no shoes on.

    All changed now, of course. Ahem.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    Grandiose said:

    @tim If I did a ten-poll average, I'm confident that it would be lowest Lab lead since the 2012 budget. (8, 9, 11, 6, 6, 5, 7, 3, 7, 4) => 6.6%?

    As to the Lab share, for the rest of 2012 42-3 was usual with YouGov, 38-9 or so now.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention


    Easy enough to have a more detailed look with all the polling.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Silly season or not that's enough polls showing movement if not an outright trend now.

    Of course the fact that the swivel-eyed loons aren't running around like headless chickens over Europe and immigration any more might just have something to do with that. You will be able to see the temporary May locals bounce for the kippers melting away in the all pollster graph. Same thing will happen before and after the EU elections.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Source :Wikipedia.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tim said:

    philiph said:

    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
    Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov

    YouGove/The Sunil on Wednesday:

    Tory/UKIP 46
    Labour 39

    OR

    Coalition 43
    Labour 39
    Very definite signs of serious narrowing now. ICM and two Yougovs. We can no longer dismiss all these as outliers.

    Irritable bowel syndrome at Labour HQ tonight.
    Labour share isnt moving.
    With Labour on 38/39 Dave needs what, 41 to stand a chance of keeping his job?
    We're now at the beginning of a proper economic upturn (even the eurozone produced decent data today), and what we both agree is a deliberately engineered feelgood houseprice boom.

    It it entirely feasible that these could deliver Cameron a plurality in 2015, maybe even a tiny majority.

    Six months ago I thought Miliband was an almost certain victor at the next GE. I'm not at all sure now.
    The last thing Cameron wants is a tiny majority, his party will string him up when he campaigns for a Yes vote in Europe.

    If he was a smart politician he wouldn't have let the boundary changes slip through his fingers.
    labour would be worrying if he'd realised how important that was for him
    Scotland will deliver him a bonus after the Yes vote.

    Labour will poll 30% to 33%
    Fancy a bet Labour poll >35% in Scotland?
    No thanks, because I realised ambiguity n post and edited it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    The great Slade were #1 when I was born:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68db9iial_U

    Although I'm not sure I should admit to that ... ;-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    The great Slade were #1 when I was born:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68db9iial_U

    Although I'm not sure I should admit to that ... ;-)

    You're a couple of years older than me, JJ!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited July 2013

    If you have not yet encountered it you may enjoy browsing this music blog:

    http://musicruinedmylife.blogspot.co.uk/



    Thank you. I'm off and running!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Fenster said:

    @Sunil

    Baccara's YES SIR, I CAN BOOGIE was number 1 when I was born in 1977.

    LOOOOOL. A one-hit wonder with a spectacularly bad video. Which makes it kind of ironic that I grew up a bit anal about music and read/listened to/studied everything there was to know about the Beatles and the 60s and pschydelia. Often partaking in lots of psychedelia myself on weekends and waking up in obscure places with no shoes on.

    All changed now, of course. Ahem.

    Space Oddity for me, apparently!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    welshowl said:

    George II odd fact: last monarch to personally command in battle. Dettingen I think (?). No idea if we won.

    depends who you believe: George IV was convinced he led a cavalry charge at Waterloo.

  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited July 2013

    Fenster said:

    @Sunil

    Baccara's YES SIR, I CAN BOOGIE was number 1 when I was born in 1977.

    LOOOOOL. A one-hit wonder with a spectacularly bad video. Which makes it kind of ironic that I grew up a bit anal about music and read/listened to/studied everything there was to know about the Beatles and the 60s and pschydelia. Often partaking in lots of psychedelia myself on weekends and waking up in obscure places with no shoes on.

    All changed now, of course. Ahem.

    Space Oddity for me, apparently!
    Ah, what a great song. About heroin apparently.

    No wonder you are into trains?!?!?!?

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Ishmael_X said:

    welshowl said:

    George II odd fact: last monarch to personally command in battle. Dettingen I think (?). No idea if we won.


    depends who you believe: George IV was convinced he led a cavalry charge at Waterloo.

    He also built a pseudo Indian palace in the middle of Brighton! Mad as a box of frogs if you ask me.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    'Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov'

    Yet another rogue poll,can't be right after all that I love the NHS Labour stuff.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Slade are hugely underrated.

    Everyone remembers the Christmas hit - but they were proper good.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Ishmael_X said:

    welshowl said:

    George II odd fact: last monarch to personally command in battle. Dettingen I think (?). No idea if we won.

    depends who you believe: George IV was convinced he led a cavalry charge at Waterloo.

    The gross provocation of yet another signal failure at Vauxhall was too much for any self-respecting Monarch to bear
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    George 111 was intermittently mad, but quite popular with the common people, earning the nickname Farmer George.

    It was really Lord North who threw away the American colonies.

    The more I think about it, naming the Prince, George is a bad idea, not only because of Blackadder the Third, but historically Kings called George, have been bad for the country.

    George I - German who couldn't speak English, and effectively handed over his powers to a Prime Minister

    George II - Short tempered and had more mistresses than achievements.

    George III - Madder than a a box of Frogs and lost us America

    George IV - Just read what the Duke of Wellington said about him

    George V - The first decent King called George

    George VI - One of the finest Kings this country has ever produced, defeated his personal demons and led the country through the abdication crisis and world war II

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    46% for Tory + UKIP must be a serious concern for the chattering classes.

    If you take London out of that equation the figure must be close to 50%.

    There's now plentiful evidence that the UK is swinging seriously to the right. Young people are more rightwing than their elders, many immigrants are socially conservative, attitudes on welfare and the NHS are converging on the Thatcherite.

    Cameron's problem is that this rightwards shift - which is generational and epochal, I suspect - is not translating into Tory votes.
    I would agree with much of that - with more regret than you obviously - but I disagree that this is an epochal change. It's entirely reversible if the left were to find some decent advocates and a few politicians with some spine.

    At the moment the left is cursed with some pretty moronic advocates, and politicians who surrender territory to the right. Meanwhile there are some fairly sharp people advocating for the right, and they have tenacious politicians prepared to fight a long war.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Dear me. I had The Green Green Grass of Home by Tom Jones...
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Plato said:

    Dear me. I had The Green Green Grass of Home by Tom Jones...

    Quality ;-)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Little red Rooster by the Rolling Stones for me.

    It was their first number one, so I must be very old.
    Plato said:

    Dear me. I had The Green Green Grass of Home by Tom Jones...

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think he was in community care, but maybe that movie was wrong!
    tim said:

    George 111 was intermittently mad, but quite popular with the common people, earning the nickname Farmer George.

    It was really Lord North who threw away the American colonies.

    The more I think about it, naming the Prince, George is a bad idea, not only because of Blackadder the Third, but historically Kings called George, have been bad for the country.

    George I - German who couldn't speak English, and effectively handed over his powers to a Prime Minister

    George II - Short tempered and had more mistresses than achievements.

    George III - Madder than a a box of Frogs and lost us America

    George IV - Just read what the Duke of Wellington said about him

    George V - The first decent King called George

    George VI - One of the finest Kings this country has ever produced, defeated his personal demons and led the country through the abdication crisis and world war II

    Didn't George 111 end up in A&E?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Save your kisses for me, by Brotherhood of Man.

    I see tim is still in the denial phase...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    SeanT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    46% for Tory + UKIP must be a serious concern for the chattering classes.

    If you take London out of that equation the figure must be close to 50%.

    There's now plentiful evidence that the UK is swinging seriously to the right. Young people are more rightwing than their elders, many immigrants are socially conservative, attitudes on welfare and the NHS are converging on the Thatcherite.

    Cameron's problem is that this rightwards shift - which is generational and epochal, I suspect - is not translating into Tory votes.
    I would agree with much of that - with more regret than you obviously - but I disagree that this is an epochal change. It's entirely reversible if the left were to find some decent advocates and a few politicians with some spine.

    At the moment the left is cursed with some pretty moronic advocates, and politicians who surrender territory to the right. Meanwhile there are some fairly sharp people advocating for the right, and they have tenacious politicians prepared to fight a long war.
    Electorates appoint the right to earn money and the left to spend it.

    The epoch we are in for the foreseeable future is one where we need to earn more money than we spend.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    edited July 2013
    FoxinSoxUK - George II was also the last monarch to lead his troops into battle at the battle of Dettingen!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    SeanT - Young people are more socially liberal than their elders, younger voters are much more likely to support gay marriage for example. While they do want tougher welfare policies etc they do not want to abandon welfare altogether according to the polls, and much of that is a reflection of growing up under 13 years of Labour government
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    If you think the "As a Father" bereaved relative Claire Perry porn filterathon was stomach churning wait until Date Night Dave gets stuck into the marriage tax break

    @TelePolitics: David Cameron's tax breaks are "symbolic", IFS says http://t.co/n5vz5Rq7kW

    Got to give you credit lad,the way you defend the pi$$ poor two that are at the top of the labour party.

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    SeanT said:

    I guess the fundamental in this and all other recent polls is the depressed share of the LD vote. A serious chunk of the 2010 LD vote has decamped to Labour. This looks fixed and isn't moving. The old SDP has lost faith with Clegg and gone home to Labour. The left is united.

    Unless the UKIP dies and the Tories hit 41 or 42% this puts Milliband into Downing St, everything else is just fluff.

    What a load of bollocks. Miliband is on 35-38%. If you think this guarantees victory you are deluded. It's one of the worst midterm performances by any opposition.

    Right now I reckon we are headed for a hung parliament, and maybe another election shortly after.
    You can say it's bollocks, but I note you don't actually give a reason why.

    I have no horse in this race, but my read of the numbers is that if the UKIP poll >5% Labour wins on 36%. The vote distribution and polling tells us this.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    There's not much evidence the UK is swinging to the right. England, or parts of it, might be; but Scotland and Wales show little sign of following suit.

    Labour hit 35% in the polls a month after the coalition was formed - before cuts, broken promises, joke budgets or anything. No party losing an election has ever had such a bounce before. SeanT is right to predict a hung Parliament but unless the Tories can eat into that solid Labour 35% - the most consistent feature of the polls for the last three years - it's likely Labour will win the most seats, will do some kind of deal with the LDs and the Tories will kick Dave and George into touch and descend into bitter recrimination. Their opposition to AV may well turn out to be one of the stupidest moves in modern British politics.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    George II was the last British monarch to lead troops in battle, but what other nations monarchs have led troops in battle more recently?
    HYUFD said:

    FoxinSoxUK - George II was also the last monarch to lead his troops into battle at the battle of Dettingen!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Interesting Dettingen fact: It's now called the town of Karlstein-am-Main (in Bavaria).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited July 2013
    Do you want me to a thread on the 5 day yougov average since May 2010 to this month?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    SO - My prediction is Labour will get 36%, but Cameron will scrape home with a majority of less than 10, by reaching 42/43% by cutting the UKIP vote back to 5% and the LD vote falling back to not much more than 10%, the lowest Liberal vote since 1979!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Fenster said:

    Slade are hugely underrated.

    Everyone remembers the Christmas hit - but they were proper good.

    They even had three Top 10s in the 80s :)
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    George II was the last British monarch to lead troops in battle, but what other nations monarchs have led troops in battle more recently?

    HYUFD said:

    FoxinSoxUK - George II was also the last monarch to lead his troops into battle at the battle of Dettingen!

    Napoleon at Waterloo is an obvious starting point.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    George II was the last British monarch to lead troops in battle, but what other nations monarchs have led troops in battle more recently?

    HYUFD said:

    FoxinSoxUK - George II was also the last monarch to lead his troops into battle at the battle of Dettingen!

    Napoleon at Waterloo is an obvious starting point.
    My My
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,558

    Little red Rooster by the Rolling Stones for me.

    It was their first number one, so I must be very old.

    Plato said:

    Dear me. I had The Green Green Grass of Home by Tom Jones...

    Apparently it's "Walk Right Back/Ebony Eyes" by the Everly Brothers for me.
    The first #1 I can actually remember from TOTP is "These Boots Were Made For Walking" by Nancy Sinatra.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
    Labour lead Tories by 4pts; UKIP open 3pt gap over Lib Dems - Lab 39, Con 35, UKIP 11, LD 8 @Sun_Politics @YouGov

    YouGove/The Sunil on Wednesday:

    Tory/UKIP 46
    Labour 39

    OR

    Coalition 43
    Labour 39
    Very definite signs of serious narrowing now. ICM and two Yougovs. We can no longer dismiss all these as outliers.

    Irritable bowel syndrome at Labour HQ tonight.
    Labour share isnt moving.
    With Labour on 38/39 Dave needs what, 41 to stand a chance of keeping his job?
    We're now at the beginning of a proper economic upturn (even the eurozone produced decent data today), and what we both agree is a deliberately engineered feelgood houseprice boom.

    It it entirely feasible that these could deliver Cameron a plurality in 2015, maybe even a tiny majority.

    Six months ago I thought Miliband was an almost certain victor at the next GE. I'm not at all sure now.
    The last thing Cameron wants is a tiny majority, his party will string him up when he campaigns for a Yes vote in Europe.

    Assuming he ever get's the chance to hold the referendum, I think it'll be Camerons "swan-song" anyway and win or lose he will quit as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party shortly afterwards just as Wilson went soon after the 1975 referendum.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    HYUFD said:

    SO - My prediction is Labour will get 36%, but Cameron will scrape home with a majority of less than 10, by reaching 42/43% by cutting the UKIP vote back to 5% and the LD vote falling back to not much more than 10%, the lowest Liberal vote since 1979!

    That's a bold call. When was the last time a governing party saw its vote share rise in a GE, let alone by so much?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited July 2013
    Spanish train death toll now "up to 45"
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    Their opposition to AV may well turn out to be one of the stupidest moves in modern British politics.

    Oh, I don't think so. Choosing Gordon Brown as leader must be number one by a country mile, failing to call an election in early 2009 when Labour could have won a majority number two, and Labour choosing Ed Miliband as leader number three. Of course the full disaster of the last of those won't be be completely obvious unless and until he actually becomes PM. As I've said before, I remain astonished that Labour supporters aren't terrified of that risk, although I imagine experienced senior Labour politicians aren't fooling themselves.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    George Bush Senior is one classy gentleman

    Former President George H.W. Bush shaved his head on Tuesday, supporting a two-year-old with leukemia whose father is part of the 89-year-old's Secret Service detail.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57595370/george-h.w-bush-shaves-head-for-2-year-old-cancer-patient/
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited July 2013
    HYUFD said:

    SO - My prediction is Labour will get 36%, but Cameron will scrape home with a majority of less than 10, by reaching 42/43% by cutting the UKIP vote back to 5% and the LD vote falling back to not much more than 10%, the lowest Liberal vote since 1979!

    Going into government has really broke the LDs down into their pre merger constituent parts. Liberals like Clegg that feel perfectly comfortable working with a socially liberal tory party, the SDP who are culturally anti tory first and foremost. It's identity politics.

    Could the tories get the most votes, of course they could. But piling up 20,000 majorities in Gloucestershire isn't going to win them any more seats.
This discussion has been closed.