politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Montgomerie ratchets up the pressure on ambitious CON M

First.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Isn't this based on respondents to the ConHome website though?

Yep. That is a pretty good poll for Remain on Ukiphome!

crazy is as crazy does

seems far too high. I would say a large majority of Cons members are out-leaning waverers, having until, say, pre-migrant crisis, been in-leaning waverers. That still leaves us a long way from 74% out IMO.

Sneaky and loaded question. I'm "inclined to leave" but I'm 90% certain I will vote to remain and I think the vast majority of tory members will too.

saddened said:

Tim Montgomerie, really? Yesterday's man and then some.

Does Ashcroft still have an interest in the site?

Lack of patriotism, IRA sympathiser and refusal to sing the national anthem all mentioned in one sentence:

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/661510162063032321

In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.

Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham.

foxinsoxuk said:

saddened said:

Tim Montgomerie, really? Yesterday's man and then some.

Does Ashcroft still have an interest in the site?

Yes.

TOPPING said:

SquareRoot said:

odds on this being a voodoo poll .... high

That said, if it means we can avoid endless posts about the nuances of interpretation of EEA/EFTA, etc I will happily discuss it all night.

What we need is TSE's magnum opus on AV to get the juices flowing!

MP_SE said:

Lack of patriotism, IRA sympathiser and refusal to sing the national anthem all mentioned in one sentence:

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/661510162063032321

In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.

Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham.

foxinsoxuk said:

saddened said:

Tim Montgomerie, really? Yesterday's man and then some.

Does Ashcroft still have an interest in the site?

Yes.

http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/left-no-longer-happy-family/

MP_SE said:

Lack of patriotism, IRA sympathiser and refusal to sing the national anthem all mentioned in one sentence:

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/661510162063032321

In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.

Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham.

foxinsoxuk said:

saddened said:

Tim Montgomerie, really? Yesterday's man and then some.

Does Ashcroft still have an interest in the site?

Yes.

UKIPs media always seem to highlight random sentences that don't quite flow IMO

eg if they feel the need to highlight some words here "Corbyn...anthem" would be better I think

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

SquareRoot said:

odds on this being a voodoo poll .... high

That said, if it means we can avoid endless posts about the nuances of interpretation of EEA/EFTA, etc I will happily discuss it all night.

I'm thinking of doing a thread about saying the EU referendum should be a multi option referendum

Do you want to

a) Leave the EU

b) Remain in the EU

c) Become like Norway

d) Join NAFTA

e) Join the EEA/EFTA

This would mean the referendum has to be conducted under AV.

Think of the joys, discussing the EEA/AFTA and AV all in one thread.

f) join the galactic republic?

Anorak said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TOPPING said:

SquareRoot said:

odds on this being a voodoo poll .... high

That said, if it means we can avoid endless posts about the nuances of interpretation of EEA/EFTA, etc I will happily discuss it all night.

What we need is TSE's magnum opus on AV to get the juices flowing!

By 'juices' I assume you mean bile, tears and vomit...

No, the bile, tears and vomit will come when I add the Scottish Independence angle.

"Brexit could trigger Scottish secession, the polls show England wants Scotland to remain the in Union so we can rob them blind of their oil revenues, so will England 'take one for the team' and vote Remain to keep in the Union?"

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

SquareRoot said:

odds on this being a voodoo poll .... high

That said, if it means we can avoid endless posts about the nuances of interpretation of EEA/EFTA, etc I will happily discuss it all night.

I'm thinking of doing a thread about saying the EU referendum should be a multi option referendum

Do you want to

a) Leave the EU

b) Remain in the EU

c) Become like Norway

d) Join NAFTA

e) Join the EEA/EFTA

This would mean the referendum has to be conducted under AV.

Think of the joys, discussing the EEA/AFTA and AV all in one thread.

f) join the galactic republic?

f) Reform The Seventh Coalition with the Germans and batter the French via the EU.

FPT

For election results after 1931, consult Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources website
For anything before, the reference books of FWS Craig

Scrapheap_as_was said:

foxinsoxuk said:

saddened said:

Tim Montgomerie, really? Yesterday's man and then some.

Does Ashcroft still have an interest in the site?

Tim 'busted by the election flush' Montie, someone I've increasingly got bored of as he's toyed with kipperdom.

He's definitely one of those 'tories obsessed with europe' and thus not coming in our new Tory party - well not if I can help it!!!

He's buggering off to the USA for the next year and focussing on American politics.

Just rejoice at that news

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TOPPING said:

SquareRoot said:

odds on this being a voodoo poll .... high

That said, if it means we can avoid endless posts about the nuances of interpretation of EEA/EFTA, etc I will happily discuss it all night.

What we need is TSE's magnum opus on AV to get the juices flowing!

By 'juices' I assume you mean bile, tears and vomit...

No, the bile, tears and vomit will come when I add the Scottish Independence angle.

"Brexit could trigger Scottish secession, the polls show England wants Scotland to remain the in Union so we can rob them blind of their oil revenues, so will England 'take one for the team' and vote Remain to keep in the Union?"

Why not let them secede, but build a series of artificial Islands first, all across the oil fields (like China and the Spratlys). We claim territorial rights, and we have a nice navy to back it up. Scotland would have a gun boat filled with angry Glaswegians; we'd have a couple of aircraft carriers and some nuclear subs.

Much as I would love it to be true there are so many holes in this poll that I don't think it is possible to really draw anything from it.

Evening all.

Wasn’t this poll mentioned the other day on PB and is based on a ConHome vox populi?

If so, it’s utterly worthless.

MP_SE said:

Lack of patriotism, IRA sympathiser and refusal to sing the national anthem all mentioned in one sentence:

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/661510162063032321

In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.

Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham.

Massive fail not to have a poppy on his M&S lapel. Cove's obviously a conchie.

Theuniondivvie said:

MP_SE said:

Lack of patriotism, IRA sympathiser and refusal to sing the national anthem all mentioned in one sentence:

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/661510162063032321

In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.

Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham.

Massive fail not to have a poppy on his M&S lapel. Cove's obviously a conchie.

He had a bucket of plastic poppies melted down and injected intravenously. Patriotic love of our armed services literally runs though his veins.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

foxinsoxuk said:

saddened said:

Tim Montgomerie, really? Yesterday's man and then some.

Does Ashcroft still have an interest in the site?

Tim 'busted by the election flush' Montie, someone I've increasingly got bored of as he's toyed with kipperdom.

He's definitely one of those 'tories obsessed with europe' and thus not coming in our new Tory party - well not if I can help it!!!

He's buggering off to the USA for the next year and focussing on American politics.

Just rejoice at that news

Perhaps he'll get something right pontificating on that nation's politics.

I won't hold my breath.

How can you doubt Montie?

Tory campaign strategist Lynton Crosby has been coming under increasing pressure over recent days from inside the Conservative Party, with many blaming him for the negative approach to the campaign so far. Last month, high ranking Tories privately admitted that the Crosby has “got the whole tone wrong”.

Many on the right suspect that Crosby was the brains behind Michael Fallon’s intervention on Trident today, which has come under fire for both being untrue and an unnecessarily personal attack on Ed Miliband. Former ConservativeHome editor and Times columnist Tim Montgomerie said that Fallon’s article was “embarrassing”:

http://bit.ly/1MfFzrS

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I replied to this survey (as a Tory party member) and, funnily enough, replied "Leave".

Should I create a badge saying I'm 'one of the 540'?

The problem is that I also get invited to take these surveys and the only thing stopping me from claiming to be a Tory party member as far as I can tell is my own desire not to mislead. My wife used to be a party member and would take these polls as well and I have seen no evidence of any verification of who is a party member and who is not.

Posted this in the last thread because nobody, looking at you TSE, mentioned there was a new one. However it is just as applicable here as there so I shall break a rule and post it again:

Gosh, just catching up and there have been some really good and interesting posts this evening - Mrs. Free leading the charge as usual.

There have also been on or two posts that have fallen below that high standard. In that regard it is with great regret that I have to include this comment from the normally excellent Dr. Sox,

"Britain and Russia are the bookends of Europe. Neither of us feel we entirely belong, and there is both a suspicion and a degree of jelousy about the countries in the middle."

There is no suspicion about France, there is stone-cold hard fact backed by 900 years of evidence. As for jealousy, I fear the good Doctor may have of drink taken and to excess. What, with the possible exception of the German education system, is there to be jealous of in Europe.

The jealousy runs the other way which is of course why most of the continent have been trying to shaft us for the last couple of centuries. The only honourable exceptions being the Portuguese, with whom we are BFF and have been since 1373, and the Cloggies with whom we should be BFF but our politicians are too stupid to capitalise on the great friendship the two peoples have for each other.

Anorak said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I replied to this survey (as a Tory party member) and, funnily enough, replied "Leave".

Should I create a badge saying I'm 'one of the 540'?

The problem is that I also get invited to take these surveys and the only thing stopping me from claiming to be a Tory party member as far as I can tell is my own desire not to mislead. My wife used to be a party member and would take these polls as well and I have seen no evidence of any verification of who is a party member and who is not.

The good news is the discussion is fairly amicable. The message to Cameron is to tread carefully. The message to future Tory leaders is don't think it's over after the vote.

Indeed. The frothing and headbanging wing has been exported to Nigel's demesne. I'm not convinced the conviviality will last, but it's better than I'd feared for now.

Farage's blunder last week about using the referendum to topple Dave will also help Tory unity.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I replied to this survey (as a Tory party member) and, funnily enough, replied "Leave".

Should I create a badge saying I'm 'one of the 540'?

The problem is that I also get invited to take these surveys and the only thing stopping me from claiming to be a Tory party member as far as I can tell is my own desire not to mislead. My wife used to be a party member and would take these polls as well and I have seen no evidence of any verification of who is a party member and who is not.

ConHome is normally pretty accurate, for example they got the 2005 Tory leadership result pretty much spot on. Tory members are more sceptic than Tory voters though who are split down the middle on the EU

EPG said:

FPT

For election results after 1931, consult Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources website
For anything before, the reference books of FWS Craig

I typed in the results for 1931 and 1935. Haven't got round to 1929 yet. It's very time-consuming.

Not too sure what to make of this -

FBI Director Comey made a speech the other day saying that the increase in the crime rate is because politicians are not supporting the police. The White House immediately came out and denied it. Director Comey then made another speech a day or so later saying the same thing again.

The talking heads on both CNN and Fox News opined that this was a sign that the FBI was fed up with political interference and was thus a threat to Hillary Clinton in her email scandal.

They must know something.

HurstLlama said:

Posted this in the last thread because nobody, looking at you TSE, mentioned there was a new one. However it is just as applicable here as there so I shall break a rule and post it again:

Gosh, just catching up and there have been some really good and interesting posts this evening - Mrs. Free leading the charge as usual.

There have also been on or two posts that have fallen below that high standard. In that regard it is with great regret that I have to include this comment from the normally excellent Dr. Sox,

"Britain and Russia are the bookends of Europe. Neither of us feel we entirely belong, and there is both a suspicion and a degree of jelousy about the countries in the middle."

There is no suspicion about France, there is stone-cold hard fact backed by 900 years of evidence. As for jealousy, I fear the good Doctor may have of drink taken and to excess. What, with the possible exception of the German education system, is there to be jealous of in Europe.

The jealousy runs the other way which is of course why most of the continent have been trying to shaft us for the last couple of centuries. The only honourable exceptions being the Portuguese, with whom we are BFF and have been since 1373, and the Cloggies with whom we should be BFF but our politicians are too stupid to capitalise on the great friendship the two peoples have for each other.

Jealous is perhaps the wrong word but there are masses of things both big and small that various European countries do better than the UK - just as there are many things we do better. I would point to a number of the European health systems as an example of one of the big things.

This is not an argument for membership of a supra-national organisation like the EU but nor should opposition to that organisation blind us to the fact that there is still a great deal we could learn from our European neighbours (and incidently many other first world countries around the globe)

Trying to pretend we are better than everyone else at everything is a mugs game.

The Egyptian president has turned up in London and is asking Cameron to finish the job Cameron and co started in Libya. It would seem that the Egyptians are not totally grateful for HMG creating a failed state packed full of islamic extremists and then buggering off leaving the Egyptians with a problem.

Who would have thought that going to war without planning for the aftermath would be a really stupid idea? I suppose Cameron thought it was OK to do just that because Blair did it with Iraq and as we know Cameron thinks he is the real "Heir to Blair".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/11973648/Egyptian-President-Sisi-tells-UK-finish-job-in-Libya-to-stop-another-Syria.html

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/661671780352790528

antifrank said:

A number of posters have missed the point of OGH's thread. The significance is not the poll, which is bollocks. It is that Tim Montgomerie is expressly linking it to the Tory leadership election.

Personally if I were an ambitious Conservative, I'd look at what Tim Montgomerie was suggesting and do the opposite: his track record is poor. But unaccountably he has influence in Conservative circles.

As ever the voice of reason here. God only knows why The Times demeans itself by employing him

HisEminence said:

antifrank said:

A number of posters have missed the point of OGH's thread. The significance is not the poll, which is bollocks. It is that Tim Montgomerie is expressly linking it to the Tory leadership election.

Personally if I were an ambitious Conservative, I'd look at what Tim Montgomerie was suggesting and do the opposite: his track record is poor. But unaccountably he has influence in Conservative circles.

As ever the voice of reason here. God only knows why The Times demeans itself by employing him

Oh no, another poster with an avatar that my uncultured mind will confuse with Richard Nabavi and JackW.

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

Posted this in the last thread because nobody, looking at you TSE, mentioned there was a new one. However it is just as applicable here as there so I shall break a rule and post it again:

Gosh, just catching up and there have been some really good and interesting posts this evening - Mrs. Free leading the charge as usual.

There have also been on or two posts that have fallen below that high standard. In that regard it is with great regret that I have to include this comment from the normally excellent Dr. Sox,

"Britain and Russia are the bookends of Europe. Neither of us feel we entirely belong, and there is both a suspicion and a degree of jelousy about the countries in the middle."

There is no suspicion about France, there is stone-cold hard fact backed by 900 years of evidence. As for jealousy, I fear the good Doctor may have of drink taken and to excess. What, with the possible exception of the German education system, is there to be jealous of in Europe.

The jealousy runs the other way which is of course why most of the continent have been trying to shaft us for the last couple of centuries. The only honourable exceptions being the Portuguese, with whom we are BFF and have been since 1373, and the Cloggies with whom we should be BFF but our politicians are too stupid to capitalise on the great friendship the two peoples have for each other.

Jealous is perhaps the wrong word but there are masses of things both big and small that various European countries do better than the UK - just as there are many things we do better. I would point to a number of the European health systems as an example of one of the big things.

This is not an argument for membership of a supra-national organisation like the EU but nor should opposition to that organisation blind us to the fact that there is still a great deal we could learn from our European neighbours (and incidently many other first world countries around the globe)

Trying to pretend we are better than everyone else at everything is a mugs game.

Of course its a mugs game and only a complete idiot would indulge in it and of course other countries do some things much better than we do and we could and should learn from them. By the way we could also learn some good lessons from countries who are not considered to be in the first world.

However, that was not what the doctor was suggesting - suspicion and jealousy of European states were the topics. With tongue firmly in cheek I hope I demolished his argument. Suspicious of France, indeed - the man was blithering.

Consider it traditional British understatement. Of course we suspect the French and the Russians the Germans, how could it be otherwise?

Philip_Thompson said:

I'm a party member and don't go to ukiphome, why would I? How is this voodoo poll at all relevant and why isn't it being flagged as a voodoo poll in the Opening Post?

OGH normally does give warnings about voodoo polls.

As I said ConHome got the 2005 Tory leadership election pretty much spot on. However this is a poll of Tory members, Tory voters are more split, BMG on Friday had Tory voters 55% to 45% for Leave, with nationally In fractionally ahead 52% to 48%

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BMG-Research-Westminster-Voting-Intentions-and-the-EU-Referendum-Tables-291015.pdf

Philip_Thompson said:

I'm a party member and don't go to ukiphome, why would I? How is this voodoo poll at all relevant and why isn't it being flagged as a voodoo poll in the Opening Post?

OGH normally does give warnings about voodoo polls.

Indeed, I remember the days when OGH made a point of ridiculing these ConHome polls.

MP_SE said:

Lack of patriotism, IRA sympathiser and refusal to sing the national anthem all mentioned in one sentence
...
In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.
...
Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham.

Yes, I think the significance of this campaign is going to be greater in shaping the public's view of Corbyn and his increasingly sinister henchmen, than in the by-election itself.

Of course the reality of how massively out of touch Corbyn is with the values of decent Britons was always going to come out in the end, but UKIP in Oldham are extremely well placed to act as a catalyst in speeding up the process.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MP_SE said:

Lack of patriotism, IRA sympathiser and refusal to sing the national anthem all mentioned in one sentence
...
In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.
...
Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham.

Yes, I think the significance of this campaign is going to be greater in shaping the public's view of Corbyn and his increasingly sinister henchmen, than in the by-election itself.

Of course the reality of how massively out of touch Corbyn is with the values of decent Britons was always going to come out in the end, but UKIP in Oldham are extremely well placed to act as a catalyst in speeding up the process.

Good points as usual, Mr. N. That last phrase sticks in the craw a bit though. I can't quite put my finger on why but something along the lines of UKIP doing the work the Conservatives want done but can't bring themselves to do keeps popping into my head.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MP_SE said:

Lack of patriotism, IRA sympathiser and refusal to sing the national anthem all mentioned in one sentence
...
In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.
...
Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham.

Yes, I think the significance of this campaign is going to be greater in shaping the public's view of Corbyn and his increasingly sinister henchmen, than in the by-election itself.

Of course the reality of how massively out of touch Corbyn is with the values of decent Britons was always going to come out in the end, but UKIP in Oldham are extremely well placed to act as a catalyst in speeding up the process.

It will be interesting to see what sort of campaign the Tories go for. Both the Tories and UKIP attacking Corbyn's lack of patriotism and worrying associations could be quite effective.

HurstLlama said:

I can't quite put my finger on why but something along the lines of UKIP doing the work the Conservatives want done but can't bring themselves to do keeps popping into my head.

It's not so much that the Conservatives don't want to do it themselves, it's the different audience - Labour (or ex/potential Labour) voters, who will be more receptive to a UKIP message, especially from someone like John Bickley, than they would be to a Conservative message.

Tim_B said:

Not too sure what to make of this -

FBI Director Comey made a speech the other day saying that the increase in the crime rate is because politicians are not supporting the police. The White House immediately came out and denied it. Director Comey then made another speech a day or so later saying the same thing again.

The talking heads on both CNN and Fox News opined that this was a sign that the FBI was fed up with political interference and was thus a threat to Hillary Clinton in her email scandal.

They must know something.

The police are upset at being filmed on smartphone when they get put of their cars, so are not getting out of their cars. It's alleged violent crime is therefor up. Is it? Obama denies it, but he would I suppose.
I further suppose that if American police beat up fewer black people when they got out of their cars then they would not be filmed so much.
I quite admire the general run of US policeman, but the reasons for the mistrust they are held in must be pretty clear to us all.
I think this may have something to do with the FBI's actions.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I replied to this survey (as a Tory party member) and, funnily enough, replied "Leave".

Should I create a badge saying I'm 'one of the 540'?

The problem is that I also get invited to take these surveys and the only thing stopping me from claiming to be a Tory party member as far as I can tell is my own desire not to mislead. My wife used to be a party member and would take these polls as well and I have seen no evidence of any verification of who is a party member and who is not.

The good news is the discussion is fairly amicable. The message to Cameron is to tread carefully. The message to future Tory leaders is don't think it's over after the vote.

Indeed. The frothing and headbanging wing has been exported to Nigel's demesne. I'm not convinced the conviviality will last, but it's better than I'd feared for now.

Farage's blunder last week about using the referendum to topple Dave will also help Tory unity.

Farage is peddling himself and setting himself up for his future career by doing LBC talk shows. He will be running companies set up with Ashcroft next.
Fronting himself and his name like this is quite clever from his point of view. It at least shows he has been watching Trumps career.

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I'm a party member and don't go to ukiphome, why would I? How is this voodoo poll at all relevant and why isn't it being flagged as a voodoo poll in the Opening Post?

OGH normally does give warnings about voodoo polls.

Would you call the Tory MPs who write articles for ConservativeHome Kippers as well?

I couldn't judge on that, not knowing which ones are regular contributors, but there seem plenty of Tory MPs who would be kippers if they had the balls to take the risk.

Hood night all.

kle4 said:

Hood night all.

Hug a Hoodie!

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I'm a party member and don't go to ukiphome, why would I? How is this voodoo poll at all relevant and why isn't it being flagged as a voodoo poll in the Opening Post?

OGH normally does give warnings about voodoo polls.

As I said ConHome got the 2005 Tory leadership election pretty much spot on. However this is a poll of Tory members, Tory voters are more split, BMG on Friday had Tory voters 55% to 45% for Leave, with nationally In fractionally ahead 52% to 48%

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BMG-Research-Westminster-Voting-Intentions-and-the-EU-Referendum-Tables-291015.pdf

If the Tory party only listened to Tory members rather than potential Tory voters then it would be as far from govt as the GOP are without a Bush or Nixon on the ticket.

Indeed, of course some present Tory voters will have voted for Blair, unlike Tory members

Some, no doubt. Some will have voted for Clegg.

A few in 2010, not many in 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the specific point of this latest tweet, however - even ignoring the consideration that the poll is so voodoo that it could bring Papa Doc back from the dead - isn't there a bit of a logical faux pas? The referendum comes first. The leadership election comes second. The next leader will be someone on the winning side of the referendum, not the winning side amongst party members.

Why would the next leader come from the winning side? That will be the view of the voters. The Leader will be chosen by members. Members polls have consistently been pro leaving the EC.

AndyJS said:

"The government may be forced to delay the EU referendum until 2017 if it loses a parliamentary vote on the electoral franchise later this month.
David Cameron has said the in-out vote will take place by the end of 2017 but is thought to prefer a date in 2016.
But the Electoral Commission told the BBC if 16 and 17 year-olds are given the vote, the poll should be delayed by as much as 12 months to register them."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34708742

Votes for 16/17 year olds? A policy rejected at the ballot box. Let's hope the modification to the franchise gets removed at the Commons stage.

Don't mind me, I'm just keeping the PB server ticking.

flightpath01 said:

Tim_B said:

Not too sure what to make of this -

FBI Director Comey made a speech the other day saying that the increase in the crime rate is because politicians are not supporting the police. The White House immediately came out and denied it. Director Comey then made another speech a day or so later saying the same thing again.

The talking heads on both CNN and Fox News opined that this was a sign that the FBI was fed up with political interference and was thus a threat to Hillary Clinton in her email scandal.

They must know something.

The police are upset at being filmed on smartphone when they get put of their cars, so are not getting out of their cars. It's alleged violent crime is therefor up. Is it? Obama denies it, but he would I suppose.
I further suppose that if American police beat up fewer black people when they got out of their cars then they would not be filmed so much.
I quite admire the general run of US policeman, but the reasons for the mistrust they are held in must be pretty clear to us all.
I think this may have something to do with the FBI's actions.

Here is an article in that well-known lefty NYT on the increase in the murder rate this year:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/us/murder-rates-rising-sharply-in-many-us-cities.html?_r=0

Your depiction of it just being police beating up too many black people is extraordinarily simplistic. While there have been some dreadful instances of excessive use of force, there is a long history of why the police go into certain neighborhoods scared and hence heavy. The more they are required to be timid about how they go in, the more of them will get killed. So their other option is not to go in to those neighborhoods. There have been lots of local stories noting that the police are now virtually absent in certain neighborhoods after the riots.

I say this as someone who is highly critical of the over-militarization of the police forces. But there are some truly scary places in US inner cities.