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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Montgomerie ratchets up the pressure on ambitious CON M

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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    isam said:

    'George Osborne's big speech in Germany was finally meant to reveal the Government's demands for "renegotiation" of Britain's relationship with the EU. Instead, he confirmed that the Government is not just backing the status quo, but supporting more Euro-integration.

    Osborne's "key demands" will change nothing. Open-door immigration? That's a keeper. £350 million every week in EU membership fees? No change there. Common Agriculture Policy, Common Fisheries Policy, Common Foreign & Security Policy? No reform in sight.

    In fact, Osborne made it clear today he wants more Europe. He is asking for "principles embedded in EU law" to "support the integrity of the single market." He is calling for treaty change to further entrench the failed euro project - "the stronger Eurozone we want you to build." He is backing more British exposure to Eurozone collapse under the new Capital Markets Union.'

    http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/meet-osbornes-new-eu-same-as-the-old-eu/2904

    Not sure just how long George Osborne has been Foreigh Secretary. I must have missed that announcement.

    But to take on FS as well as Chancellor of the Exchequer and de facto Prime Minister is an incredible achievement.

    No wonder so many people say that the boy is a genius.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Interesting anecdote - seems my CO alarm order is delayed for my personal use as everywhere is sold out with the new legislation for landlords requiring a CO alarm in properties brought in in October.
    Not got much attention this one, but where were Labour with this legislation from 1997 - 2010. CO alarms are not new.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cricket fans, Eurosport are showing Sri Lanka vs West Indies ft the most soothing voice in Cricket comm...Russell Arnold!
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    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting anecdote - seems my CO alarm order is delayed for my personal use as everywhere is sold out with the new legislation for landlords requiring a CO alarm in properties brought in in October.
    Not got much attention this one, but where were Labour with this legislation from 1997 - 2010. CO alarms are not new.

    Why single out that time period?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2015
    Another plane with a Russian crew has crashed in South Sudan, a cargo plane with about 40 people on board:

    http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/570078-carfo-plane-down-sudan.html
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Just a thought for those of you clinging to the hope that Cameron will recommend OUT, effectively he's saying:

    Farage was right all along.

    This will be his nemesis, be in no doubt.

    I don't think David Cameron or us Conservative members particularly care what Farage's views are, any more than we care what Farron's views are. One of them has to be right on this particular issue, but it doesn't mean they got there based on sensible reasoning.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    TOPPING said:

    odds on this being a voodoo poll .... high

    That said, if it means we can avoid endless posts about the nuances of interpretation of EEA/EFTA, etc I will happily discuss it all night.
    What we need is TSE's magnum opus on AV to get the juices flowing!
    By 'juices' I assume you mean bile, tears and vomit...
    No, the bile, tears and vomit will come when I add the Scottish Independence angle.

    "Brexit could trigger Scottish secession, the polls show England wants Scotland to remain the in Union so we can rob them blind of their oil revenues, so will England 'take one for the team' and vote Remain to keep in the Union?"
    Why not let them secede, but build a series of artificial Islands first, all across the oil fields (like China and the Spratlys). We claim territorial rights, and we have a nice navy to back it up. Scotland would have a gun boat filled with angry Glaswegians; we'd have a couple of aircraft carriers and some nuclear subs.
    You are proposing a naval war with Scotland?
    No. But it would be an effective deterrent - thus preventing conflict. Like Trident...
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,958
    Topping

    "if you look at the polls (pause to consider that comment) you will see that the country is split. Cons being split about it but rock solid on the economy, health, education, the right to see what hardcore porn sites you visited last month, etc, does not a split party make.

    ..... it can be portrayed as a healthy debate reflecting that going on in the country as a whole"

    I know you are one of the humourists on this site so I take it you're joking? Incase you're not what happens when Cameron recommends staying? Tories have already split from the party because the leadership were too ambiguous over Europe so what happens when he finally pins his colours to the mast?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting anecdote - seems my CO alarm order is delayed for my personal use as everywhere is sold out with the new legislation for landlords requiring a CO alarm in properties brought in in October.
    Not got much attention this one, but where were Labour with this legislation from 1997 - 2010. CO alarms are not new.

    Or the coalition from 2010-15...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,563
    Hafeez goes. 6 out, all out? That may be the key question of this test.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The inventor of the internet inveighs against the Snooper's Charter in an article from May:

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/29/tim-berners-lee-urges-britain-to-fight-snoopers-charter?CMP=share_btn_tw
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    NEW THREAD
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    JEO said:

    Just a thought for those of you clinging to the hope that Cameron will recommend OUT, effectively he's saying:

    Farage was right all along.

    This will be his nemesis, be in no doubt.

    I don't think David Cameron or us Conservative members particularly care what Farage's views are, any more than we care what Farron's views are. One of them has to be right on this particular issue, but it doesn't mean they got there based on sensible reasoning.
    Fair enough but you miss my point, Cameron has painted himself into a corner, entirely of his own making. To placate those thinking of voting Ukip he promised a referendum which he clearly didn't want and now regrets. He is firmly in REMAIN and knows his whole future and legacy is now out of his hands.

    His only hope is that enough tories go against their better judgement and vote to stay, if we leave then Golden Boy is finished. Its for this reason I believe many labour people, instinctively INNERS, will abstain and enjoy the party.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,132
    isam said:

    >

    Insulting us really isn't smart if you want our votes to Leave.

    I've no idea of the validity of this poll but this thread has amused me, obsequious tories up in arms because somebody has dared to defy Dave.

    For "I'm undecided" read "I'm waiting for Dave to tell me how to vote".

    I'm considering joining the Conservative Party, it will save me the trouble of thinking for myself.

    Think for yourself! Why rely on being convinced by one sides propaganda or the others?

    If David Cameron said I was the greatest and Nigel Farage called me a c*** I would still vote to Leave, its not about buttering me up, its about my own opinion
    You've never had your opinion impacted by what others have said, written or done? I don't know how you formulate views if things other people produce should not influence your view in some way, given everything is told to us by other people in some form or another. Surely it's just a question of not allowing one's thoughts about the messenger override rational consideration of the merits of the message. Which, let's be honest, very few people do, even if they claim otherwise. And I do include myself in that, though I like to think I try.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,958
    Moniker

    "Wouldn't France accept you as an well-off asylum seeker who already lives there?"

    Very possibly they would but I'd sooner be shot than have to navigate french bureauocracy.

    (I have a home in France but I don't live there)

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    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    'George Osborne's big speech in Germany was finally meant to reveal the Government's demands for "renegotiation" of Britain's relationship with the EU. Instead, he confirmed that the Government is not just backing the status quo, but supporting more Euro-integration.

    Osborne's "key demands" will change nothing. Open-door immigration? That's a keeper. £350 million every week in EU membership fees? No change there. Common Agriculture Policy, Common Fisheries Policy, Common Foreign & Security Policy? No reform in sight.

    In fact, Osborne made it clear today he wants more Europe. He is asking for "principles embedded in EU law" to "support the integrity of the single market." He is calling for treaty change to further entrench the failed euro project - "the stronger Eurozone we want you to build." He is backing more British exposure to Eurozone collapse under the new Capital Markets Union.'

    http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/meet-osbornes-new-eu-same-as-the-old-eu/2904

    In pb.com terms that's checkmate isam, even the Osborne worshippers on here won't counter that.
    It's a tired run through of UKIP's greatest hits. It is, as usual, not even coherent internally - objecting to a strengthening of the single market? Really? And in what way is it Britain's interests to have a weak Eurozone on its doorstep?

    Most importantly, it completely ducks the burning question that the Leave camp faces: what relationship is Britain to have with the EU in future? George Osborne has set out a positive vision that he is aiming for. You may not like it. You may regard it as actively deceptive. You may regard it as mere window dressing. But he has set it out.

    In response, all Douglas Carswell has done is harrumph. That will satisfy the diehard Leavers. I suspect even Douglas Carswell knows it's nowhere near good enough to convert the undecided.
    This isn't hard for me. We have a clear idea of what our existing EU relationship means, and it's highly unsatisfactory. A vote to Remain would be to endorse that and, at best, tweak it with some minor modifications to its functionality to preserve that status quo. We might not get another vote for decades.

    A vote to Remain is to express dissatisfaction and the unacceptability of those terms. It does not mean casting us adrift in a dinghy in the mid-Atlantic. I would expect a Leave vote to precede a pragmatic and realistic mutual bilateral renegotiation led by the UK Government based on the associate status we really want, and we thought we originally might get when the renegotiation was first aired.

    I would be happy to put that new revised relationship to a second referendum for the UK electorate's endorsement as well. And then we move on.
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    I've moved into the Leave camp, and detest the insults from both sides - they're not winning any hearts or minds.

    JEO said:

    Insulting us really isn't smart if you want our votes to Leave.

    I've no idea of the validity of this poll but this thread has amused me, obsequious tories up in arms because somebody has dared to defy Dave.

    For "I'm undecided" read "I'm waiting for Dave to tell me how to vote".

    I'm considering joining the Conservative Party, it will save me the trouble of thinking for myself.

    Us undecideds get constant abuse from both sides. Either we are loony conspiracy theorists because we acknowledge criticisms of the EU, or we are sycophantic Cameroon because we'd like to give reform a chance. When the renegotiation is announced, I will be scrolling past the abusive posters and be reading the sensible ones with interest.
    There are insults from both sides. However, if this forum is anything to go by, they do seem to be more reflexive from the Remain side because they start from the position that any Leaver is probably at heart at xenophobe.

    Chris Patten wrote a column on this in the Evening Standard last night and the first five paragraphs were just an airing of his frustrations at 'europhobes'.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,958
    edited November 2015
    MD

    "Lastly, you've preached doom and gloom if we vote to leave but not a single positive reason for voting to stay."

    From a personal point of view 1.Ease of movement 2. Ease of working 3. Ease of living 4.Knowing that all European countries have common standards so unlike Turkey or Egypt (For example) I know I won't get poisoned by drinking the water 5. A feeling of community and shared values 6. All the individual cultural quirks of dozens of diverse and brilliant countries as accessible Edinburgh 7. A wonderful mix of nationalities and languages working in dozens of glorious cities etc etc etc etc etc etc......

    I have a horrible feeling that too many here just don't go away enough to see and enjoy those delights
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Roger said:

    MD

    "Lastly, you've preached doom and gloom if we vote to leave but not a single positive reason for voting to stay."

    From a personal point of view 1.Ease of movement 2. Ease of working 3. Ease of living 4.Knowing that all European countries have common standards so unlike Turkey or Egypt (For example) I know I won't get poisoned by drinking the water 5. A feeling of community and shared values 6. All the individual cultural quirks of dozens of diverse and brilliant countries as accessible Edinburgh 7. A wonderful mix of nationalities and languages working in dozens of glorious cities etc etc etc etc etc etc......

    I have a horrible feeling that too many here just don't go away enough to see and enjoy those delights

    The US and Australia aren't members of the EU. Is the water poisonous in those countries?
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Roger said:

    Moniker

    "Wouldn't France accept you as an well-off asylum seeker who already lives there?"

    Very possibly they would but I'd sooner be shot than have to navigate french bureauocracy.

    (I have a home in France but I don't live there)

    Excuses, excuses . Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that your real reluctance to move would be down to the Gallic Socialist Paradise's eye watering wealth taxes, and fewer opportunities for tax avoidance.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Many of us who work in Europe and see ourselves as European would then look for citizenship iin Scotland (or maybe Ireland) '

    If you need anyone to countersign your passport applications Roger it's no problem...
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    Not sure why Tim Montgomerie attracts so many negative comments on this thread. He's a first class political thinker and a very good man. All he's done is report on a Conhome poll. These polls are not scientific at all and can easily be pulled apart. However it 'feels' right. I meet many Conservative activists who are deeply hostile to our membership of the EU, a few who are frightened of leaving but almost no one who is actually enthusiastic about our membership. Who can blame them?
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    Not sure why Tim Montgomerie attracts so many negative comments on this thread. He's a first class political thinker and a very good man. All he's done is report on a Conhome poll. These polls are not scientific at all and can easily be pulled apart. However it 'feels' right. I meet many Conservative activists who are deeply hostile to our membership of the EU, a few who are frightened of leaving but almost no one who is actually enthusiastic about our membership. Who can blame them?

    I don't doubt he's a decent guy but he has been wrong in every political prediction he has made. The problem is he allows his hatred of Dave to cloud his judgement. His articles in The Times are pedestrian at best too.
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