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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Montgomerie ratchets up the pressure on ambitious CON MPs with the latest ConHome EU referendum survey
Attention Tory leadership candidates: 71% of party members inclined to @vote_leave https://t.co/zxhtCslumi pic.twitter.com/TJZRtKSL6f
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https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/661510162063032321
In that one sentence there is something for everyone... to hate about Corbyn.
Decent media coverage could be quite damaging to Labour nationally and not just in Oldham. Yes.
Do you want to
a) Leave the EU
b) Remain in the EU
c) Become like Norway
d) Join NAFTA
e) Join the EEA/EFTA
This would mean the referendum has to be conducted under AV.
Think of the joys, discussing the EEA/AFTA and AV all in one thread.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CS6tceYXAAUZhDb.jpg
eg if they feel the need to highlight some words here "Corbyn...anthem" would be better I think
I think it was the soap dodgers hurling abuse at we shy retiring Tories that also probably contributed in the united front.
"Brexit could trigger Scottish secession, the polls show England wants Scotland to remain the in Union so we can rob them blind of their oil revenues, so will England 'take one for the team' and vote Remain to keep in the Union?"
Members getting themselves wound up into a frenzy over stuff the general public has very little interest in.
For election results after 1931, consult Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources website
For anything before, the reference books of FWS Craig
He's definitely one of those 'tories obsessed with europe' and thus not coming in our new Tory party - well not if I can help it!!!
Just rejoice at that news
I won't hold my breath.
Wasn’t this poll mentioned the other day on PB and is based on a ConHome vox populi?
If so, it’s utterly worthless.
Should I create a badge saying I'm 'one of the 540'?
Tory campaign strategist Lynton Crosby has been coming under increasing pressure over recent days from inside the Conservative Party, with many blaming him for the negative approach to the campaign so far. Last month, high ranking Tories privately admitted that the Crosby has “got the whole tone wrong”.
Many on the right suspect that Crosby was the brains behind Michael Fallon’s intervention on Trident today, which has come under fire for both being untrue and an unnecessarily personal attack on Ed Miliband. Former ConservativeHome editor and Times columnist Tim Montgomerie said that Fallon’s article was “embarrassing”:
http://bit.ly/1MfFzrS
Arf, I don’t think so - He hasn’t been a mover or a shaker in almost a decade.
The good news is the discussion is fairly amicable. The message to Cameron is to tread carefully. The message to future Tory leaders is don't think it's over after the vote.
Gosh, just catching up and there have been some really good and interesting posts this evening - Mrs. Free leading the charge as usual.
There have also been on or two posts that have fallen below that high standard. In that regard it is with great regret that I have to include this comment from the normally excellent Dr. Sox,
"Britain and Russia are the bookends of Europe. Neither of us feel we entirely belong, and there is both a suspicion and a degree of jelousy about the countries in the middle."
There is no suspicion about France, there is stone-cold hard fact backed by 900 years of evidence. As for jealousy, I fear the good Doctor may have of drink taken and to excess. What, with the possible exception of the German education system, is there to be jealous of in Europe.
The jealousy runs the other way which is of course why most of the continent have been trying to shaft us for the last couple of centuries. The only honourable exceptions being the Portuguese, with whom we are BFF and have been since 1373, and the Cloggies with whom we should be BFF but our politicians are too stupid to capitalise on the great friendship the two peoples have for each other.
Meanwhile, perhaps of interest for those who've suspected Corbyn of anti-semitism:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/03/gerald-kaufmans-jewish-money-condemned-jeremy-corbyn
Kaufman is Jewish himself and a member of the left-wing Jewish campaign group Paole Zion, but very pro-Palestinian (he's also incidentally the Father of the House).
Hope you are still around - do you mind if I PM you?
Wanted to get your take on implications of a major transport infrastructure initiative - think that's your field?
Ta muchly
FBI Director Comey made a speech the other day saying that the increase in the crime rate is because politicians are not supporting the police. The White House immediately came out and denied it. Director Comey then made another speech a day or so later saying the same thing again.
The talking heads on both CNN and Fox News opined that this was a sign that the FBI was fed up with political interference and was thus a threat to Hillary Clinton in her email scandal.
They must know something.
But you are being naughty here. No-one accused Corbyn of being anti-Semitic himself. The accusation was that he hung around with those who were and/or was indifferent to those who were anti-Semitic if they were otherwise useful to him or on his side in some cause he did care about.
Good he condemned Kaufman's remarks. Not good that it took him as long as it did. And I query why he refers to the remarks not being helpful to the Palestinian cause. Would the remarks have been OK if they HAD helped the Palestinian cause? If not, why mention it at all?
Now, shall we see how long it takes him to criticise Andy Slaughter? Or Stop the War for their refusal to allow a victim of Assad's torture to speak about his experiences?
This is not an argument for membership of a supra-national organisation like the EU but nor should opposition to that organisation blind us to the fact that there is still a great deal we could learn from our European neighbours (and incidently many other first world countries around the globe)
Trying to pretend we are better than everyone else at everything is a mugs game.
Personally, I would not use the expression "Jew" or "Jewish" myself. It is the Israeli government which is the occupier. To hold all Jews responsible would be wrong. Israel kills Palestinians and bulldozes their homes in complete violation of any international law. And no one condemns them. For some reason US and UK political parties are scared of them.
In the US, frankly, only Florida is a swing state where Israeli supporters could change the outcome. NY and NJ are spoken about. But the Democratic majority is greater than the Jewish vote even if all were to vote for the Republicans which they would not. Most Jews in the US are progressive people. In Britain, electorally, the Israeli supporters are hardly important.
Many in the media , however, do have connections with Israel. Kaufman to his credit has spoken out despite his own connections with the community. Money also talks.
Brave man !
Who would have thought that going to war without planning for the aftermath would be a really stupid idea? I suppose Cameron thought it was OK to do just that because Blair did it with Iraq and as we know Cameron thinks he is the real "Heir to Blair".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/11973648/Egyptian-President-Sisi-tells-UK-finish-job-in-Libya-to-stop-another-Syria.html
Personally if I were an ambitious Conservative, I'd look at what Tim Montgomerie was suggesting and do the opposite: his track record is poor. But unaccountably he has influence in Conservative circles.
Western governments tend to think that bombing the hell out of a country finishes the job ! They are always surprised that, apparently, the mission is not necessarily accomplished.
Portugal is also a bookend/liminal part of Europe looking outwards rather than inwards, so perhaps should be classed with Britain and Russia (as should perhaps Turkey also).
But I fear you are wrong. From Belgian Beer, to German engineering, to Spanish siestas to the Italian dolce vitae, Greek sunsets, Finnish saunas and the trans-carpathian forests there is much to be jealous of in Europe. Even that curious Danish complacency of hygge.
Elliot Bidgood Retweeted Guido Fawkes
If I'm right, think this means rough spend-per-vote was Kendall £8.69, Burnham £4.20, Cooper £4.60, Corbyn £1.47
However, that was not what the doctor was suggesting - suspicion and jealousy of European states were the topics. With tongue firmly in cheek I hope I demolished his argument. Suspicious of France, indeed - the man was blithering.
OGH normally does give warnings about voodoo polls.
Good point about Portugal, though, and maybe we should include the Netherlands in the same group. Then that opens another question about us being great mates with countries who have a tradition of looking outwards from Europe and that opens a whole new train of thought that is to much for the time of night.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BMG-Research-Westminster-Voting-Intentions-and-the-EU-Referendum-Tables-291015.pdf
Cui Bono? Well, maybe his audience was a clue. The rising levels of anti-semitism in Europe and the complexities and sensitivities of the Israeli-Palestinian issue are such that even a pompous old booby like Kaufman should think more carefully before indulging in crude conspiracy theories and insulting sterotypes.
Of course the reality of how massively out of touch Corbyn is with the values of decent Britons was always going to come out in the end, but UKIP in Oldham are extremely well placed to act as a catalyst in speeding up the process.
On the specific point of this latest tweet, however - even ignoring the consideration that the poll is so voodoo that it could bring Papa Doc back from the dead - isn't there a bit of a logical faux pas? The referendum comes first. The leadership election comes second. The next leader will be someone on the winning side of the referendum, not the winning side amongst party members.
I further suppose that if American police beat up fewer black people when they got out of their cars then they would not be filmed so much.
I quite admire the general run of US policeman, but the reasons for the mistrust they are held in must be pretty clear to us all.
I think this may have something to do with the FBI's actions.
Fronting himself and his name like this is quite clever from his point of view. It at least shows he has been watching Trumps career.
Hood night all.
He became a Voodoo Pole!
David Cameron has said the in-out vote will take place by the end of 2017 but is thought to prefer a date in 2016.
But the Electoral Commission told the BBC if 16 and 17 year-olds are given the vote, the poll should be delayed by as much as 12 months to register them."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34708742
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/us/murder-rates-rising-sharply-in-many-us-cities.html?_r=0
Your depiction of it just being police beating up too many black people is extraordinarily simplistic. While there have been some dreadful instances of excessive use of force, there is a long history of why the police go into certain neighborhoods scared and hence heavy. The more they are required to be timid about how they go in, the more of them will get killed. So their other option is not to go in to those neighborhoods. There have been lots of local stories noting that the police are now virtually absent in certain neighborhoods after the riots.
I say this as someone who is highly critical of the over-militarization of the police forces. But there are some truly scary places in US inner cities.