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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Frank “Houdini” Field leads the fight against MP deselectio

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Don't forget, kids, it's South Africa versus Argentina at 8pm tonight.

    That coincides with P2 of the Mexican Grand Prix weekend, although that's only on the radio/online (or Sky, obviously).
  • Don does not seem to understand that GO's backtracking has nothing to do with Labour and everything to do with his leadership hopes. Labour is almost entirely irrelevant.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,314
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    The Labour Party is very good at making a lot of noise, but its parliamentarians just do not carry through.

    Remember their mass rally to protest over the shortening of the period for individual registration before the Tory gerrymander of the new boundaries?

    If Labour peers had stayed and voted with the Lib Dems, the government would have been defeated. But most of the Labour peers went home.

    Labour are not serious about standing up against the Tories.

    Simply calling it gerrymandering doesn't make it gerrymandering.
    There is a reason that we have an independent Boundaries Commission trusted by all sides to be impartial, and it's so that unlike a number of other countries there is no gerrymandering in the UK. Thankfully.

    Why is it in the interests of "all sides" to trust the Boundaries Commission?
    Because at root, British politics requires everyone playing the game plays by the rules, which means there has to be a certain level of trust. Without this, for example, "the usual channels" don't function.

    This, incidentally, is why it's a problem if a Leader of the Opposition can't or won't join the Privy Council.
    No. The "usual channels" are simply one of several devices to obfuscate the truth that patriotism requires a one-Party State (Tory in England, SNP north of the Border) - David Herdson has rightly pointed out that only three times since Gladstone's death has a Party opposed to the Tories won a clear majority (Blair, of course, was/is a crypto-Tory) which it has always lost at the election following. Anyone who owns, or aspires to owning, a lawn-mower is a Tory au profond however much energy they put into hiding this fact from themselves.

    I have 3 lawnmowers , don't tell me I am doomed to be a diehard Tory.
    looking at the urban dictionary definition of lawnmower, I wouldn't say that's the type of thing you should be boasting about on a public website

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lawnmower
    If I were drinking tea, it would now be all over the screen. And Malc has three of these??! :p
    Hopefully not at the same time ... :(

    (This conversation is going down the mind bleach route)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,942
    edited October 2015
    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    If it was as bad as you make it seem, we'd never not have Tory governments. I cannot dispute the specifics because I do not have the experience with it you have, but I am skeptical it could be as bad as all that.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    The Labour Party is very good at making a lot of noise, but its parliamentarians just do not carry through.

    Remember their mass rally to protest over the shortening of the period for individual registration before the Tory gerrymander of the new boundaries?

    If Labour peers had stayed and voted with the Lib Dems, the government would have been defeated. But most of the Labour peers went home.

    Labour are not serious about standing up against the Tories.

    Simply calling it gerrymandering doesn't make it gerrymandering.
    There is a reason that we have an independent Boundaries Commission trusted by all sides to be impartial, and it's so that unlike a number of other countries there is no gerrymandering in the UK. Thankfully.

    Why is it in the interests of "all sides" to trust the Boundaries Commission?
    Because at root, British politics requires everyone playing the game plays by the rules, which means there has to be a certain level of trust. Without this, for example, "the usual channels" don't function.

    This, incidentally, is why it's a problem if a Leader of the Opposition can't or won't join the Privy Council.
    No. The "usual channels" are simply one of several devices to obfuscate the truth that patriotism requires a one-Party State (Tory in England, SNP north of the Border) - David Herdson has rightly pointed out that only three times since Gladstone's death has a Party opposed to the Tories won a clear majority (Blair, of course, was/is a crypto-Tory) which it has always lost at the election following. Anyone who owns, or aspires to owning, a lawn-mower is a Tory au profond however much energy they put into hiding this fact from themselves.

    I have 3 lawnmowers , don't tell me I am doomed to be a diehard Tory.
    How many lawns do you have???
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    edited October 2015
    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    One wonders how we don't already have 649 constituencies for Kensington, to return Tory members, and one constituency at large for the rest of the country. (and I don't for one moment buy the argument that the Tories are the only ones that can afford lawyers)
  • As that lse article - http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/electoral-bias-in-the-uk-after-the-2015-general-election/ - shows, there's different sources of bias.

    A structural bias - that can be fixed and is likely to grow and evolve with time. Figures 2 and 3 show combined bias due to national effects and constituency sizes of around +17 to Labour. That can be brought closer to zero by appropriate and regular redrawing of boundaries. I think the saw tooth nature of one of the lines reflects this process.

    That it is a minor part of the problem doesn't mean we shouldn't do anything about it. We should, because we can.

    There's the abstention bias - fewer Labour voters per MP. I think one of the side effects of equalising the constituencies will be to reduce this from its current bias in the mid-20s to Labour. And the voter registration will get rid of the ghost voters that also lead to this bias.

    Again, minor but we can do things to mitigate it. And we should.

    There's not much we can do about the Third Party bias - when the electoral map gets so fundamentally redrawn, you're going to get *odd* results. Don't forget a big part of this was Labour's inability to fight in both Scotland and Middle England in 2015.

    The last graph - that's not a bias, chaps, that's tactics. That's political skill.

    That's what wins majorities from positions that once looked unwinnable.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    As I mentioned last night to one or two people at the pb gathering, one of my Labour-leaning colleagues gave a description of Jeremy Corbyn which I now can't shake out of my head: "he's like Brian from Life of Brian".

    "You are all individuals."

    "Yes, we are all individuals!"

    "You're all different!"

    "Yes, we ARE all different!"

    I had a dream last night that Corbyn had taken over as player manager of my football team, insisted on playing up front and made me play defensive midfield instead of my favoured no 10 role!
    Did he score?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MrsB said:

    And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    Bollocks

    One of the main reasons the Tories lost Edinburgh South West to Labour (having held Pentlands for years) is the boundaries were redrawn to heavily favour labour wards over Tory wards
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    The Labour Party is very good at making a lot of noise, but its parliamentarians just do not carry through.

    Remember their mass rally to protest over the shortening of the period for individual registration before the Tory gerrymander of the new boundaries?

    If Labour peers had stayed and voted with the Lib Dems, the government would have been defeated. But most of the Labour peers went home.

    Labour are not serious about standing up against the Tories.

    Simply calling it gerrymandering doesn't make it gerrymandering.
    There is a reason that we have an independent Boundaries Commission trusted by all sides to be impartial, and it's so that unlike a number of other countries there is no gerrymandering in the UK. Thankfully.

    Why is it in the interests of "all sides" to trust the Boundaries Commission?
    Because it means that when in opposition you can be sure the boundaries are drawn fairly and not to favour the party in power. It's when the boundaries are not re drawn that some bias will affect one part or another, probably not the party in power.
    I'll try again. Why is it in the interest of the activists of the Party in power (who presumably believe that it has a monopoly of wisdom, or they wouldn't be activists) that the boundaries aren't drawn in their favour?

    Because then they would no longer be legitimate, if it looks like the election was stolen.
    Indeed.

    It's worth noting, however, that there is a distinction between introducing a bias and removing a bias. Just because removing Labour's inbuilt bias benefits the Tories doesn't mean they shouldn't do it.
    At the 2015 election, the bias favoured the Conservatives. The changes were conceived when Labour benefited from a so-called bias which, as we occasionally pointed out on pb, was not really a bias at all but just differential turnout.
    Not true - read the full LSE analysis for the details.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    @RobD Labour can possibly afford some - but they are not in a good state financially, so not likely to be able to afford them on the same scale as the Tories. SNP possibly. Otherwise, almost certainly not UKIP, Lib Dems, Greens, or anybody else. Not on the industrial scale that will guarantee nationwide oversight.
    The Tories see this like EVEL - a way of giving themselves the best chance of keeping power more or less permanently. That's the only reason they want to do it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,905
    kle4 said:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    If it was as bad as you make it seem, we'd never not have Tory governments. I cannot dispute the specifics because I do not have the experience with it you have, but I am skeptical it could be as bad as all that.
    That doesn't follow.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    As I mentioned last night to one or two people at the pb gathering, one of my Labour-leaning colleagues gave a description of Jeremy Corbyn which I now can't shake out of my head: "he's like Brian from Life of Brian".

    "You are all individuals."

    "Yes, we are all individuals!"

    "You're all different!"

    "Yes, we ARE all different!"

    I had a dream last night that Corbyn had taken over as player manager of my football team, insisted on playing up front and made me play defensive midfield instead of my favoured no 10 role!
    Did he score?
    No idea, I stormed off in a huff!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,665
    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    As far as I remember, the last two reviews have been a fair bit less favourable to the Tories than would be expected by a 'neutral' review. The review between 92 and 97 was described in great detail in Robert Waller's excellent 'almanac of British Politics' of about 1995 and the commissioners seemed to accept the Labour representations more often than the Conservatives'.
  • ComRes phone poll

    Con 38 (-1) Lab 33 (+3) UKIP 10 (-2) Lib Dems 8 (-1) Greens 3 (-1) SNP 3 (-1)

    Corbyn Surge!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    MrsB said:

    @RobD Labour can possibly afford some - but they are not in a good state financially, so not likely to be able to afford them on the same scale as the Tories. SNP possibly. Otherwise, almost certainly not UKIP, Lib Dems, Greens, or anybody else. Not on the industrial scale that will guarantee nationwide oversight.
    The Tories see this like EVEL - a way of giving themselves the best chance of keeping power more or less permanently. That's the only reason they want to do it.

    So we've already gone from "no one can afford representation apart from the Tories", to, "well, Labour can afford some". OK.

    If what you say seriously happens, why don't we already see boundaries which massively favour the Tories? This isn't the first boundary review.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Scott - what, one constituency, and in Scotland, and you think that proves the Tories are not going to manipulate the boundaries review in their favour?
    I feel a malcolmg moment coming on - you must be a numpty if you genuinely believe that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    First chink in the News International paywalls:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/oct/30/sun-website-to-scrap-paywall?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Will the Times follow?
  • @tom_ComRes: Majority of Britons oppose tax credit cut according to our new ComRes poll for Daily Mail

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSjqmv6WcAAMBVo.jpg
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    Cookie said:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    As far as I remember, the last two reviews have been a fair bit less favourable to the Tories than would be expected by a 'neutral' review. The review between 92 and 97 was described in great detail in Robert Waller's excellent 'almanac of British Politics' of about 1995 and the commissioners seemed to accept the Labour representations more often than the Conservatives'.
    That can't be right. The evil baby-eating Tories spent the big bucks on those lawyers to ensure that wouldn't happen!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    ComRes phone poll

    Con 38 (-1) Lab 33 (+3) UKIP 10 (-2) Lib Dems 8 (-1) Greens 3 (-1) SNP 3 (-1)

    Corbyn Surge!

    When's Oldham West and Royton, I'm looking for as high an interest rate as possible on my notes from Skybet for that one :)
  • The fieldwork for that ComRes was last Friday to Sunday inclusive.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891

    ComRes phone poll

    Con 38 (-1) Lab 33 (+3) UKIP 10 (-2) Lib Dems 8 (-1) Greens 3 (-1) SNP 3 (-1)

    Corbyn Surge!

    EICIPM!


    Oh, wait....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MrsB said:

    Scott - what, one constituency, and in Scotland, and you think that proves the Tories are not going to manipulate the boundaries review in their favour?
    I feel a malcolmg moment coming on - you must be a numpty if you genuinely believe that.

    As an example it disproves your theory, but feel free to put on your tinfoil hat and wait for the sky to fall...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    ComRes phone poll

    Con 38 (-1) Lab 33 (+3) UKIP 10 (-2) Lib Dems 8 (-1) Greens 3 (-1) SNP 3 (-1)

    Corbyn Surge!

    When's Oldham West and Royton, I'm looking for as high an interest rate as possible on my notes from Skybet for that one :)
    3 December, probably:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/10/selection-timetable-for-oldham-west-by-election-revealed/
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited October 2015
    felix said:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.
    Ranting Lib Dem complaining about 'dirty tricks' by other parties? How we laughed. History has shown that the Yellow Peril are experts when it comes to skullduggery.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    @Cookie and in 1992-1997 it was Labour who were in a rising position, heading toward 1997, and who had the money and resources to distort the reviews in their favour. Since 2001 the pendulum has been swinging towards the Tories. So they will fix this round in their favour this time.
    THat's how it works.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,384
    edited October 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    ComRes phone poll

    Con 38 (-1) Lab 33 (+3) UKIP 10 (-2) Lib Dems 8 (-1) Greens 3 (-1) SNP 3 (-1)

    Corbyn Surge!

    When's Oldham West and Royton, I'm looking for as high an interest rate as possible on my notes from Skybet for that one :)
    My Labour activist friend texted me last night to say it was December the 3rd.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited October 2015
    Stick to limericks if this is your best efforts.

    Really, what partisan drivel.
    MrsB said:

    Scott - what, one constituency, and in Scotland, and you think that proves the Tories are not going to manipulate the boundaries review in their favour?
    I feel a malcolmg moment coming on - you must be a numpty if you genuinely believe that.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    Pulpstar said:

    ComRes phone poll

    Con 38 (-1) Lab 33 (+3) UKIP 10 (-2) Lib Dems 8 (-1) Greens 3 (-1) SNP 3 (-1)

    Corbyn Surge!

    When's Oldham West and Royton, I'm looking for as high an interest rate as possible on my notes from Skybet for that one :)
    My Labour activist friend texted me last night to say it was December the 6th.
    Around 1000 % AER return. Wonga like.
  • @tom_ComRes: Majority of Britons oppose tax credit cut according to our new ComRes poll for Daily Mail

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSjqmv6WcAAMBVo.jpg

    People support welfare reform where people get more money?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891

    @tom_ComRes: Majority of Britons oppose tax credit cut according to our new ComRes poll for Daily Mail

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSjqmv6WcAAMBVo.jpg

    People support welfare reform where people get more money?
    Is the minimum wage paid for by government now? :p
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    The Labour Party is very good at making a lot of noise, but its parliamentarians just do not carry through.

    Remember their mass rally to protest over the shortening of the period for individual registration before the Tory gerrymander of the new boundaries?

    If Labour peers had stayed and voted with the Lib Dems, the government would have been defeated. But most of the Labour peers went home.

    Labour are not serious about standing up against the Tories.

    Simply calling it gerrymandering doesn't make it gerrymandering.
    There is a reason that we have an independent Boundaries Commission trusted by all sides to be impartial, and it's so that unlike a number of other countries there is no gerrymandering in the UK. Thankfully.

    Why is it in the interests of "all sides" to trust the Boundaries Commission?
    Because it means that when in opposition you can be sure the boundaries are drawn fairly and not to favour the party in power. It's when the boundaries are not re drawn that some bias will affect one part or another, probably not the party in power.
    I'll try again. Why is it in the interest of the activists of the Party in power (who presumably believe that it has a monopoly of wisdom, or they wouldn't be activists) that the boundaries aren't drawn in their favour?

    Because then they would no longer be legitimate, if it looks like the election was stolen.
    Indeed.

    It's worth noting, however, that there is a distinction between introducing a bias and removing a bias. Just because removing Labour's inbuilt bias benefits the Tories doesn't mean they shouldn't do it.
    At the 2015 election, the bias favoured the Conservatives. The changes were conceived when Labour benefited from a so-called bias which, as we occasionally pointed out on pb, was not really a bias at all but just differential turnout.
    Not true - read the full LSE analysis for the details.
    This bit?
    this ‘efficiency bias’ was by far the largest source of the major pro-Labour biases in the 1997, 2007 and 2005 elections [graph].
    But it had already evaporated in 2010 (when the Conservatives mounted a far more effective target seat strategy than in previous elections). And this year, it worked substantially in the Conservatives’ favour -– worth a whopping 60 seats over Labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    The Labour Party is very good at making a lot of noise, but its parliamentarians just do not carry through.

    Remember their mass rally to protest over the shortening of the period for individual registration before the Tory gerrymander of the new boundaries?

    If Labour peers had stayed and voted with the Lib Dems, the government would have been defeated. But most of the Labour peers went home.

    Labour are not serious about standing up against the Tories.

    Simply calling it gerrymandering doesn't make it gerrymandering.
    There is a reason that we have an independent Boundaries Commission trusted by all sides to be impartial, and it's so that unlike a number of other countries there is no gerrymandering in the UK. Thankfully.

    Why is it in the interests of "all sides" to trust the Boundaries Commission?
    Because it means that when in opposition you can be sure the boundaries are drawn fairly and not to favour the party in power. It's when the boundaries are not re drawn that some bias will affect one part or another, probably not the party in power.
    I'll try again. Why is it in the interest of the activists of the Party in power (who presumably believe that it has a monopoly of wisdom, or they wouldn't be activists) that the boundaries aren't drawn in their favour?

    Because then they would no longer be legitimate, if it looks like the election was stolen.
    Indeed.

    It's worth noting, however, that there is a distinction between introducing a bias and removing a bias. Just because removing Labour's inbuilt bias benefits the Tories doesn't mean they shouldn't do it.
    At the 2015 election, the bias favoured the Conservatives. The changes were conceived when Labour benefited from a so-called bias which, as we occasionally pointed out on pb, was not really a bias at all but just differential turnout.
    Not true - read the full LSE analysis for the details.
    This bit?
    this ‘efficiency bias’ was by far the largest source of the major pro-Labour biases in the 1997, 2007 and 2005 elections [graph].
    But it had already evaporated in 2010 (when the Conservatives mounted a far more effective target seat strategy than in previous elections). And this year, it worked substantially in the Conservatives’ favour -– worth a whopping 60 seats over Labour.
    That bias has nothing to do with boundaries.
  • Off topic.

    I'd rather spend an entirety stuck in a lift with Kippers and Kippers in Kilts than go to another 1D concert.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    To quote another LD 'Tories are supplicants'
    watford30 said:

    felix said:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.
    Ranting Lib Dem complaining about 'dirty tricks' by other parties? How we laughed. History has shown that the Yellow Peril are experts when it comes to skullduggery.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,851
    edited October 2015
    RobD said:



    If I were drinking tea, it would now be all over the screen. And Malc has three of these??! :p

    A far greater sin than the over-rapid removal (or indeed insertion) of 'beads' is confusing a noun with a verb.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,132

    DavidL said:

    Frank Field is very unlikely to stand again. It is surprising he stood this time. This makes him a somewhat unlikely candidate to resist deselection but very little makes sense in the Labour party these days.

    The government is of course not much weaker but much stronger than it looks after the passing of the EVEL rules. It can pass pretty much whatever legislation it wants in England and Wales with or without the awkward squad.

    As for the comments about McDonnell, well, it does little for the credibility of Don's views more generally that he can come out with such nonsense.

    Indeed - English MPs now have far less effective power than they did previously. The Executive has been considerably strengthened. Fancy that.

    Is that actually true?

    AFAI all it means is that English MPs only consider at committee stage. All UK MPs get to vote at 2nd reading. After report stage, English MPs can only consent or veto specific clauses - they cannot introduce any new ones. It then goes to third reading where all UK MPs vote once again:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/441848/English_votes_for_English_laws_explanatory_guide.pdf

    In effect it just stops Scottish MPs amending government bills as they progress through the House so, yes, in that sense strengthens the Tory majority - but the only real power is a power of veto.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Mr. Eagles, I would've thought One Direction would be right up your alley.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    watford30 said:

    History has shown that the Yellow Peril are experts when it comes to skullduggery.

    Arguably the ONLY thing they are any good at
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Off topic.

    I'd rather spend an entirety stuck in a lift with Kippers and Kippers in Kilts than go to another 1D concert.

    It's what you have to do if you don't want someone to steal your girl.
  • antifrank said:

    First chink in the News International paywalls:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/oct/30/sun-website-to-scrap-paywall?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Will the Times follow?

    I hope not, I like being an elitist
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891

    RobD said:



    If I were drinking tea, it would now be all over the screen. And Malc has three of these??! :p

    A far greater sin than the over-rapid removal (or indeed insertion) of 'beads' is confusing a noun with a verb.
    Was a typo, Malc meant 'lawnmowerers' :D
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Martin Kettle speculates on the need for an SNP for the north:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/29/north-england-snp-southern-neglect-powerhouse-vacuum

    On a point of detail, the National Theatre put on A Taste Of Honey last year, which is impeccably northern.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited October 2015
    Scott_P said:

    watford30 said:

    History has shown that the Yellow Peril are experts when it comes to skullduggery.

    Arguably the ONLY thing they are any good at
    'Lib Dems - Whining Here'.

    Is there a bar chart?
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    oh what a surprise, all the pbTories think their party is as pure as the driven snow and any possibility that it might be engaging in fixing boundaries has to be shouted down.

    BUT THEY ARE DOING IT. Attack me as much as you like, claim all the other parties are just as bad, claim it is all nonsense if you want, it will still be true.
  • MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    I've never been to a review but I have read the reports.I think the issue with a lot of the ordinary people who make submissions is that they only focus on their own little patch and have no thought to the knock on consequences for other areas. The big parties have tended to get listened to a lot more because they put forward schemes for an entire area, I have also seen a few cases where a member of the public has put a whole scheme put forward and had it accepted. The commission do go on field trips to some of these places to investigate for themselves
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    For me to take this seriously, I'd have to know a bit more information. With all respect, an activist from another party complaining in high level terms about gerrymandering without specific charges doesn't have much weight.

    - What were the outright lies?
    - What was the effect of these outright lies?
    - How did the misogyny of the Commission chair affect the gerrymandering?
    - What complaints by the non-lawyers were not sufficiently considered?

    I do not feel the complaint about changing the Labour electorate holds much weight, as there was such rampant fraud in the system among certain communities before that it's not surprising the electorate reduces as false voters get stripped off the roll.

    My biggest complaint is that we still allow Commonwealth citizens to vote, often in countries where British people have no reciprocal right, and in countries where village elders control voting patterns in the UK. Mirpur is a good example of this.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Off topic.

    I'd rather spend an entirety stuck in a lift with Kippers and Kippers in Kilts than go to another 1D concert.

    I concur, but based my decision not to go on empirical data rather than a participatory experiment.

    On the other hand Download festival has some excellent headliners next year: Rammstein, Black Sabbath (with Ozzy) in their final UK appearance then Iron Maiden on Sunday. Heavy Metal Heaven! I cannot resist...
  • antifrank said:

    Off topic.

    I'd rather spend an entirety stuck in a lift with Kippers and Kippers in Kilts than go to another 1D concert.

    It's what you have to do if you don't want someone to steal your girl.
    Story of my life, I suspect tomorrow night's concert will drag me down.

    Arrgghhh
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
  • Capital letters are convincing.

    That is all.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    The tax credit business coming at the same time as Oldham West is fortuitous for the Tories - here's why:

    I think it makes a passable result (On awful turnout no doubt) far more likely for Labour than the squeaky bum they may have had if the whole rumpus had not kicked off.
    This in turn should help cement Corbo, ex quo sequitur is good news for the blues.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    MrsB said:

    oh what a surprise, all the pbTories think their party is as pure as the driven snow and any possibility that it might be engaging in fixing boundaries has to be shouted down.

    BUT THEY ARE DOING IT. Attack me as much as you like, claim all the other parties are just as bad, claim it is all nonsense if you want, it will still be true.

    You're being shouted down because you haven't actually given any examples of specific complaints, much less evidence for them. Repeating your high level claims in capital letters does not make the claim any more persuasive.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    No. You made a stupid comment and have been pwned.
    MrsB said:

    oh what a surprise, all the pbTories think their party is as pure as the driven snow and any possibility that it might be engaging in fixing boundaries has to be shouted down.

    BUT THEY ARE DOING IT. Attack me as much as you like, claim all the other parties are just as bad, claim it is all nonsense if you want, it will still be true.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Capital letters are convincing.

    That is all.

    LIKE !
  • felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
    I feel sorry for the Lib Dems

    They put the country first in 2010 and in 2015 the country said piss off.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Mr. Antifrank, except the North isn't a country. And despite what some southerners think, it's actually as English as the rest of the land. Carving it up into various assemblies/parliaments would be monumentally foolish, short-sighted and narrow-minded.

    Glad Yorkshire First did so badly in the election, but it's a shame the party exists at all.
  • @MSmithsonPB: Today's ComRes phone poll for the Mail has the Tories in worst position than any survey from pollster since GE
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
    I feel sorry for the Lib Dems

    They put the country first in 2010
    Their tactics once in coalition sucked melon balls - they put the country first for a month then spent 4 1/2 years slagging off the government they were part of.

    They brought it on themselves.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891

    @MSmithsonPB: Today's ComRes phone poll for the Mail has the Tories in worst position than any survey from pollster since GE

    Quick, retreat to the PBToryBunker!
  • Mr. Antifrank, except the North isn't a country. And despite what some southerners think, it's actually as English as the rest of the land. Carving it up into various assemblies/parliaments would be monumentally foolish, short-sighted and narrow-minded.

    Glad Yorkshire First did so badly in the election, but it's a shame the party exists at all.

    My plan is to unite Yorkshire and Lancashire and form the Plantagenet Party.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    @MSmithsonPB: Today's ComRes phone poll for the Mail has the Tories in worst position than any survey from pollster since GE

    Clearly Osborne should resign. It's the only solution to humiliation on this scale...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited October 2015
    No. I thought highly of some LDs then lots used an understandable desire of HMG to then bitch about being in power.

    Those deserved all they got. Vince being the Top Tory win for me.

    felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
    I feel sorry for the Lib Dems

    They put the country first in 2010 and in 2015 the country said piss off.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Wow - since the GE - most govts soar in popularity in the first few years .
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. Antifrank, except the North isn't a country. And despite what some southerners think, it's actually as English as the rest of the land. Carving it up into various assemblies/parliaments would be monumentally foolish, short-sighted and narrow-minded.

    Glad Yorkshire First did so badly in the election, but it's a shame the party exists at all.

    My plan is to unite Yorkshire and Lancashire and form the Plantagenet Party.
    Good luck with that endeavour. The Pennines are culturally higher than the Himalayas.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,373

    Mr. Antifrank, except the North isn't a country. And despite what some southerners think, it's actually as English as the rest of the land. Carving it up into various assemblies/parliaments would be monumentally foolish, short-sighted and narrow-minded.

    Glad Yorkshire First did so badly in the election, but it's a shame the party exists at all.

    My plan is to unite Yorkshire and Lancashire and form the Plantagenet Party.
    Good luck with that idea!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Mr. Eagles, more realistic than your view of Hannibal.

    If we got a Northern Parliament it'd take about six minutes before it descended into a War of the Roses.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
    I feel sorry for the Lib Dems

    They put the country first in 2010 and in 2015 the country said piss off.
    Yes, they lost most of their seats with honour. Of course, they gained most of them through an all-things-to-all-men anti-politics, so it's swings and roundabouts really.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    TGOHF said:

    felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
    I feel sorry for the Lib Dems

    They put the country first in 2010
    Their tactics once in coalition sucked melon balls - they put the country first for a month then spent 4 1/2 years slagging off the government they were part of.

    They brought it on themselves.
    It was a very strange positioning. They openly argue they needed to sign up to a coalition to implement an austerity drive for the good of the country. And then they complain that they had to back an austerity drive they didn't really agree with by the evil Tories.
  • Vox populi and all that jazz

    Spectre breaks UK box office records for Tuesday and Wednesday takings

    http://bit.ly/1P9qkS7
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Mostly. I give Danny Alexander a free pass and wish him very well.
    TGOHF said:

    felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
    I feel sorry for the Lib Dems

    They put the country first in 2010
    Their tactics once in coalition sucked melon balls - they put the country first for a month then spent 4 1/2 years slagging off the government they were part of.

    They brought it on themselves.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Vox populi and all that jazz

    Spectre breaks UK box office records for Tuesday and Wednesday takings

    http://bit.ly/1P9qkS7

    Is SPECTRE any good ? Going at the weekend - is it Live and Let Die or Die another day ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
    I feel sorry for the Lib Dems

    They put the country first in 2010
    Their tactics once in coalition sucked melon balls - they put the country first for a month then spent 4 1/2 years slagging off the government they were part of.

    They brought it on themselves.
    They should be able to make some political capital out of the tax credits debacle

    In 2009 labour were in power, the tax threshold was 6k and you got tax credits

    In 2010 the coalition enacted the lib dem policy of raising the threshold to 11k, and tax credits remained

    In 2015 the tory majority cut tax credits

    We are where we were in 2009 and it seems to me the Lib Dems can claim to have helped poor people more than the other two

    (I don't agree with them, but they can claim it)
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    Then, with respect, the Lib Dems should have allowed the boundary changes through when they still had a say in the process. Killing them off in the last parliament turned out to be unhelpful in the long run and didn't even help them save seats in the short term.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    Vox populi and all that jazz

    Spectre breaks UK box office records for Tuesday and Wednesday takings

    http://bit.ly/1P9qkS7

    Need to get the readies in before the 8 million pound gorilla arrives on the screens.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    RobD said:

    @MSmithsonPB: Today's ComRes phone poll for the Mail has the Tories in worst position than any survey from pollster since GE

    Quick, retreat to the PBToryBunker!
    I don't think any retreat is needed. I would happily go ten points down at this point as long as we are making real conservative reforms. We'd have to be further right wing than Genghis Khan before we lost to Corbyn. We have plenty of time to recover in the polls within the next five years. Now is the time to get things done.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: It took precisely 98 minutes from the start of #ScotLab15 for the first fuck-up. Great stuff. #genertaion https://t.co/CxG49qYLMa
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    MrsB said:

    oh what a surprise, all the pbTories think their party is as pure as the driven snow and any possibility that it might be engaging in fixing boundaries has to be shouted down.

    BUT THEY ARE DOING IT. Attack me as much as you like, claim all the other parties are just as bad, claim it is all nonsense if you want, it will still be true.

    You're the one doing all the shouting - now if I was an evil bab -eating Tory I'd say 'calm down dear' but i'm not so I won't - I'll settlefor 'you ok hun'? :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,942

    kle4 said:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    If it was as bad as you make it seem, we'd never not have Tory governments. I cannot dispute the specifics because I do not have the experience with it you have, but I am skeptical it could be as bad as all that.
    That doesn't follow.
    How so? If the situation is a Tory free for all as described, the Tories should have changed the boundaries to such that they never lose. As I have not witnessed such a review I cannot, however, dispute MrsB's assertions as to how they are conducted, but because we have not had a situation where the Tories could never lose, as shown by how they have lost multiple times, then I am skeptical of the assertion's strength nevertheless.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    felix said:

    LMAO - post of the decade. You're not a bit paranoid - you know they're out to get you.

    I don't think the Lib Dems are in a position to lecture anyone about the politicisation of boundary changes after the experience of the last Parliament.

    Not that I blame them for the highly political decision they took (I'd blame the Tories more for messing up the whole timeline of the bargain). Without it they would have literally been reduced to Yellow Taxi status. Not even a Big one.
    I feel sorry for the Lib Dems

    They put the country first in 2010
    Their tactics once in coalition sucked melon balls - they put the country first for a month then spent 4 1/2 years slagging off the government they were part of.

    They brought it on themselves.
    They should be able to make some political capital out of the tax credits debacle

    In 2009 labour were in power, the tax threshold was 6k and you got tax credits

    In 2010 the coalition enacted the lib dem policy of raising the threshold to 11k, and tax credits remained

    In 2015 the tory majority cut tax credits

    We are where we were in 2009 and it seems to me the Lib Dems can claim to have helped poor people more than the other two

    (I don't agree with them, but they can claim it)
    Unfortunately the Cons can play the what was the minimum wage card against that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Is SPECTRE any good ?

    More disappointing than The Phantom Menace
  • TGOHF said:

    Vox populi and all that jazz

    Spectre breaks UK box office records for Tuesday and Wednesday takings

    http://bit.ly/1P9qkS7

    Is SPECTRE any good ? Going at the weekend - is it Live and Let Die or Die another day ?
    PB's Bond connoisseurs loved it. SeanT didn't like it.

    It is fair it splits opinions, those who are intelligent, witty Bond fans love it, numpties hate it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    edited October 2015
    Mr. Pulpstar, quite.

    Spectre is Tomb Raider to the Fallout 4 that is Star Wars.

    Edited extra bit: except that Tomb Raider and Fallout 4 come out on the same day. Which is not necessarily in Lara Croft's best interest.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,693
    MrsB said:

    oh what a surprise, all the pbTories think their party is as pure as the driven snow and any possibility that it might be engaging in fixing boundaries has to be shouted down.

    BUT THEY ARE DOING IT. Attack me as much as you like, claim all the other parties are just as bad, claim it is all nonsense if you want, it will still be true.

    No, it'll be your distorted perception.

    Something does not become true simply because you type it in capital letters. It just makes you look desperate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,384
    edited October 2015
    antifrank said:

    Mr. Antifrank, except the North isn't a country. And despite what some southerners think, it's actually as English as the rest of the land. Carving it up into various assemblies/parliaments would be monumentally foolish, short-sighted and narrow-minded.

    Glad Yorkshire First did so badly in the election, but it's a shame the party exists at all.

    My plan is to unite Yorkshire and Lancashire and form the Plantagenet Party.
    Good luck with that endeavour. The Pennines are culturally higher than the Himalayas.
    I've realised that The Plantagenet party sounds awfully French, as a proud les Rosbif, that just wont do.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    @MSmithsonPB: Today's ComRes phone poll for the Mail has the Tories in worst position than any survey from pollster since GE

    Oh dear OGH getting a bit over-excited - is this wise in the elderly? Look what it's done to Mrs. B already.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,942

    @MSmithsonPB: Today's ComRes phone poll for the Mail has the Tories in worst position than any survey from pollster since GE

    To prepare, I think Labour supporters should remember that although there are plenty of overly triumphant Tories out there, there have also been plenty saying even though they think Corbyn will never win a GE, that Labour under him would have a lead at some point. If they had one now it would be a surprise to such people I suspect, and even if it is close they would be annoyed, but even if the Tories are in a precarious position, it is not entirely unexpected.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: Today's ComRes phone poll for the Mail has the Tories in worst position than any survey from pollster since GE

    Clearly Osborne should resign. It's the only solution to humiliation on this scale...
    Quite - a whole 1% drop!!!!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Vox populi and all that jazz

    Spectre breaks UK box office records for Tuesday and Wednesday takings

    http://bit.ly/1P9qkS7

    Is SPECTRE any good ? Going at the weekend - is it Live and Let Die or Die another day ?
    PB's Bond connoisseurs loved it. SeanT didn't like it.

    It is fair it splits opinions, those who are intelligent, witty Bond fans love it, numpties hate it.
    Sounds promising - Skyfall was a dour bore frankly. Moody bollocks or Roger Moore holding a fish out of the window whilst driving out of the sea - I know which I prefer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), Timothy Dalton?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is SPECTRE any good ?

    More disappointing than The Phantom Menace
    You prefer Jar Jar over Monica B ?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Me too. It has to be fixed. Being a Tory isn't about being fashionable. It's doing the difficult stuff.
    JEO said:

    RobD said:

    @MSmithsonPB: Today's ComRes phone poll for the Mail has the Tories in worst position than any survey from pollster since GE

    Quick, retreat to the PBToryBunker!
    I don't think any retreat is needed. I would happily go ten points down at this point as long as we are making real conservative reforms. We'd have to be further right wing than Genghis Khan before we lost to Corbyn. We have plenty of time to recover in the polls within the next five years. Now is the time to get things done.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2015

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), Timothy Dalton?

    Dalton films are no more Bond than the Lazenby or Niven ones.

    There have only been 3 1/2 Bonds : Roger, Sean, Daniel and Goldeneye Brosnan.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    antifrank said:

    Mr. Antifrank, except the North isn't a country. And despite what some southerners think, it's actually as English as the rest of the land. Carving it up into various assemblies/parliaments would be monumentally foolish, short-sighted and narrow-minded.

    Glad Yorkshire First did so badly in the election, but it's a shame the party exists at all.

    My plan is to unite Yorkshire and Lancashire and form the Plantagenet Party.
    Good luck with that endeavour. The Pennines are culturally higher than the Himalayas.
    I've realised that The Plantagenet party sounds awfully French, as a proud les Rosbif, that just wont do.
    The Tudor Party would be the unification of Yorkshire and Lancashire, I would have thought...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,942
    edited October 2015
    MrsB said:

    oh what a surprise, all the pbTories think their party is as pure as the driven snow and any possibility that it might be engaging in fixing boundaries has to be shouted down.

    BUT THEY ARE DOING IT. Attack me as much as you like, claim all the other parties are just as bad, claim it is all nonsense if you want, it will still be true.

    I certainly don't think Tories are pure as the driven snow. I'm sure they try for as much advantage as they can get. What I dispute is your assertion it is as bad as you claim, since it self evidently is not because the Tories barely won a majority this time and hadn't won one since 1992 before that!

    However, while some parties may be worse than others in action, anyone who thinks the difference is massive in moral terms, whether they favour Tories, SNP, Labour, LD or UKIP, is a blinkered partisan. One can believe a party is on balance better than the others, or that another is worse, but in a liberal democracy like ours, where disaster does not occur when another side wins even if many think things get worse, the idea any particular party supported by millions upon millions of people is beyond the pale (and that those millions like that or are idiots who don't notice) is insulting.

    I've voted LD in every GE I've been able to vote, if it helps you accept some criticism of the strength of your assertion without dismissing it as a partisan attack to know that.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Vox populi and all that jazz

    Spectre breaks UK box office records for Tuesday and Wednesday takings

    http://bit.ly/1P9qkS7

    Is SPECTRE any good ? Going at the weekend - is it Live and Let Die or Die another day ?
    PB's Bond connoisseurs loved it. SeanT didn't like it.

    It is fair it splits opinions, those who are intelligent, witty Bond fans love it, numpties hate it.
    Sounds promising - Skyfall was a dour bore frankly. Moody bollocks or Roger Moore holding a fish out of the window whilst driving out of the sea - I know which I prefer.
    Moonraker - 'Carry On Bond'. The best. It's all been downhill ever since.
  • TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is SPECTRE any good ?

    More disappointing than The Phantom Menace
    You prefer Jar Jar over Monica B ?
    The biggest disappointed of SPECTRE was the little screen time Monica B had
  • Still on the boundaries, I found this in an Electoral Commission report on which areas will suffer the most from the removal of the 1.9 million

    4.22 However, there are also a number of local authority areas with retained
    entries making up 10% or over of all register entries. These authorities are in
    urban areas with a high student concentration (Glasgow, Cambridge) or
    London boroughs (Brent, Hackney, Haringey, Lambeth, Kensington and
    Chelsea, Redbridge). Hackney has the highest level, with 23% of their total
    register being retained.
    4.23 The number of London boroughs with high proportions of retained
    entries further underlines the importance of considering the transition end date
    in relation to the polls scheduled for May 2016 – which includes elections to
    the Greater London Assembly and for London Mayor.

    K&C could be reduced to one whole seat despite the borough having approx 156k population. It shows the impact of the large number of non-eligible foreigners buying up properties there.

    Don't know what is happening with Hackney, although my guess is it would be paired with Newham which has seats that are too big.
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